Terron Chapman
Suns vs. Clippers
Play: Under 211
Two teams looking to get back in the win column will meet Sunday afternoon when the Los Angeles Clippers play host to the Phoenix Suns at Staples Center. The Clippers had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 97-92 home loss to the Houston Rockets their last time out, while the Suns were road kill for the Miami Heat, in a 95-83 setback at home, their third loss in the last four games.
Sunday’s meeting will be the second meeting between the two this season. The Suns used a 42 point first quarter en route to a 116-108 win back on Nov. 26. The win was their ninth straight in the series and fourth straight in the series in which the total sailed OVER. In fact, the OVER has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings. However, Sunday we expect that streak to be put to the test.
Defense is a myth in Phoenix and the numbers resemble such as Phoenix holds the last-place ranking in rebounding percentage and the second-to-last rankings in scoring defense and field-goal-percentage defense. Coach Alvin Gentry is none to happy and used Friday’s practice to emphasize defensive principles.
After trading away Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu, the Suns lack the firepower we’ve become accustomed to and it showed their last time out. The 83 points scored against Miami were 25 points below their season average. Look for those offensive struggles to continue against an underrated Clippers defense that is holding opponents to just 45% from the floor which ranks 15th in the league. Look for this one to fall short of expectations. Play UNDER the total for 1 unit.
Craig Trapp
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Baltimore Ravens -3.5
CLE is the doormat of the league and since the mid season back to back upsets of NO and NE they have only cover one game of last six. Don't look for motivation from CLE as looks like Mangini is on his way out and so is most of his staff. BAL on other hand is coming off best performance of year as they ran at will against a much better defense. BAL gets up big early and then lets defense take over. BAL wins by 17 pts!
Scott Rickenbach
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: New England Patriots
The Pats are off of a non-covering win over the Packers on Sunday night. As expected (we had Green Bay in that game), the Patriots under-estimated the Pack as GB was without QB Rodgers. That said, you can fully expect that Bill Belichick has had his team's ear this week as they know they need to avoid another letdown this week or they could face an upset loss. As for the Bills, they are off an upset win and that is what helps to make this a perfect play against spot for Buffalo. After upsetting the Dolphins in Miami last week the Bills won't have enough left in the tank to match up with a New England team that knows they can ill afford another week of underestimating their foe. The Pats have won 14 straight games in this series and they've only lost the money 4 times in those 14 match-ups. The Bills are averaging just 15 points per game in their last 4 games while the Pats are averaging 37 points per game their last 4 games! This has all the makings of a rout. Consider a small play on New England minus the big points in Sunday afternoon NFL action.
Tom Freese
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
Prediction: Oakland Raiders
Indianapolis is is 8-6 straight up this year. The Colts are 2-7 ATS in Week 16. The Colts are 4-9-1 ATS after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their last game. The Colts are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as favorites. The Colts are 1-4 ATS their last 5 meetings with the Raiders. Oakland is 7-7 straiight up this year. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games overall and they are 5-0 ATS after scoring more than 30 points in their last game. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS their last 5 home games.
Tom Stryker
San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: San Diego Chargers -7.5
There's only one way for San Diego to have a shot at making it to the playoffs this year. The Chargers know they need to win out and get a little help along the way. Fortunately for the Bolts, they close with Cincinnati and Denver - two NFL teams that own a combined 6-22 SU and 9-19 ATS record!
If you're worried about backing this warm-weather San Diego team in the snow and cold at Cincinnati, rest your mind at ease. As a December guest, the Bolts are a perfect 10-0 SU (6-4 ATS) dating back to the 2006 season. The Chargers have been one of the best in the league overall too posting a sensational 79-40 SU and 70-44-5 ATS record in their last 119 games. Those two team trends are nice but this next technical situation is what really makes this investment an attractive one.
According to my high-octane NFL database, game 15 home teams that enter off a SU and ATS home win are a soft 24-35 ATS provided they close the regular season on foreign soil. Since 2001, NFL clubs in this specific situation are on a woeful 5-17 ATS run!
Cincinnati has dropped 37 of its last 61 to the Las Vegas pointspread and performed just as badly against teams from the AFC West posting a weak 18-39 SU and 23-34 ATS record. Without the services of TO, the Bengals will lose one of their best offensive weapons. That's a bad thing matched up against a Chargers defense that has limited their last two opponents to seven points combined! Lay the lumber here men. Take San Diego.
Larry Ness
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Houston Texans -2.5
The Tim Tebow era begins. Actually, it began last Sunday, as the Broncos gave Tebow his first NFL start against the Raiders. Tebow has many detractors but his fans will be "loyal to end" until I believe, he proves beyond a shadow of a doubt, that he's no NFL quarterback. The numbers show that Tebow completed 8-of-16 passes for 138 yards (one TD and zero INTs) against the Raiders while adding 78 yards on eight carries with another TD. Pretty good you say? Well let's look closer. Tebow turned two Raiders turnovers into TDs in the first quarter, as the team took a 14-7 lead after Oakland's Ford had opened the scoring with a 71-yard TD run. Tebow's first TD came on a 40-yard burst on a third-and-24 when he ran through the middle of Oakland's defense and then broke tackles from safeties Michael Huff and Tyvon Branch. Let's ask Tebow about the play. "To be honest, that was a mistake on my part," Tebow was quoted as saying by the Denver Post. "I was supposed to hand it to Buck, and I ran it. It ended up working. It was a draw, and I was supposed to hand it to [Buckhalter]. I thought it was the Q Draw and I just ran it. Buck went up and led for me and made a good block and I cut off his block and we scored." His TD pass came when he threw a ball up for grabs in the end zone that went through CB Stanford Routt's hands and was caught by Brandon Lloyd for a 33-yard score. After Denver grabbed that 14-7 lead, Tebow led the Broncos to just three FGs the rest of the way. He converted a woeful 2-of-12 on third down, as the Broncos totaled just nine FDs for the entire rest of the game. The good news is that Tebow will face the Houston Texans on Sunday, owners of the NFL's worst pass D. The Texans are allowing a league-high 275.1 YPG through the air, 66.1 percent completions with 31 TDs and just 11 INTs (opposing QB rating of 103.1). However, the bad news is that Denver's defense ranks dead-last in scoring, allowing 29.6 PPG (31st in yards, at 386.1 per game). Since its bye week (Week 9), the Broncos D has been awful save for a 10-6 loss at KC in week 12. Denver's allowed 29, 35, 36, 45 and 39 points (36.8 per) over the other five games. Houston had high hopes in 2010, coming of its first-ever winning season (9-7) but after a 4-2 start (opened 2-0), the Texans has 'crashed' and 'burned' down the stretch. However, in meaningless game with little defensive talent on the field, I'll take Schaub over Tebow any day.
David Chan
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers
PICK: New York Giants +3
A cold winter day with snow. That's the forecast for this afternoon's Giants-Packers game in Lambeau Field.
Sounds like Packer weather, right? No, not against this opponent.
The keys to winning in this kind of condition is to be able to run the ball and pressure the quarterback. The Giants do both very well. The Packers can't run and only have one outstanding pass rusher, Clay Matthews.
New York ranks among the leaders in sacks with 42 and Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have the second most rushing yards of any running back tandem in the NFL in back of only Kansas City's Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones.
The Giants' passing game also came alive last week against Philadelphia with Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham healthy.
The Packers are excellent in one thing - losing close games. Green Bay has six losses. The Packers have four defeats by three points each and two losses by four points each. Two of the losses occurred in overtime.
Yes, some of that is bad luck. But some of it also is Green Bay being unable to pull out games because it can't get over the hump and also doesn't have a clutch kicker.
Aaron Rodgers is coming off a concussion. Unlike his counterpart, Eli Manning, he doesn't have a ground attack to fall back on or to use to effectively set up play-action.
Bradshaw and Jacobs are each legitimate starters. Brandon Jackson is Green Bay's best running back and he's strictly backup material.
The Giants usually are a good play as a road 'dog covering 12 of the past 17 times in that role. This is another time to take the points with New York.
Scott Spreitzer
Richmond @ Seton Hall
PICK: Richmond +2
I'm taking the points with the Spiders on Sunday. Richmond is 9-3 and already has been tested away from home with wins at Arizona State and against Purdue and Wright State on neutral courts. The Spiders are on a 16-7-2 ATS run overall and 13-5-1 ATS on the road. Point guard Kevin Anderson leads the team with 16.6 points and 3.8 assists per game and has been nominated for the 2011 Bob Cousy Award which goes to the player voted best point guard in the country. Also, forward Justin Harper averages 14.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. The Spiders are shooting 49 percent from the field while their matchup defense holds opponents to just 39 percent field goal shooting. Kevin Willard is in his first season as Seton Hall coach and so far the Pirates 6-5, however, going back to last season Seton Hall is 3-10 ATS at home and 10-22 ATS overall. Guard Jordan Theodore is the leading scorer (12.3 ppg) but he's coming off a 5-for-17 performance in a loss to Dayton in which the Pirates blew a 14-point halftime lead. Also, guard Jeremy Hazell is out with a wrist injury and sixth-man forward Ferrakohn Hall is transferring. In addition, forward Herb Pope has been battling illness and injuries for the past several months. I'm taking the points with Richmond on Sunday.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Detroit Lions +3.5
The Lions have been battling all season with six losses coming by 5 of fewer points. They enter today's contest with lots of momentum off back-to-back wins against Green Bay and Tampa Bay - winning teams. Detroit has become even more competitive lately because it has been able to get its ground game going, racking up 371 yards rushing the last two weeks. The Dolphins have been lousy at home this season, going just 1-6. From the perspective of the point spread, Miami has long been troubled at home. In fact, the Dolphins are a pathetic 17-44-1 ATS in their last 62 home games. It is also worth noting that they are 6-28 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite. Going a step further we find that Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Lions have been cashing tickets all season to the tune of 10-3-1 ATS. With plenty of momentum, and playing a team that has been outscored by 6.6 ppg on its home field this season, we'll take the Lions and the points.
John Ryan
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Prediction: New England Patriots
Patriots have won fourteen straight games against Buffalo, are 21-13 ATS against Buffalo since 1992, and 11-5 ATS in games played at Buffalo since 1992. With a win the Patriots would clinch their seventh division title in eight seasons and secure home-field advantage the AFC playoffs. The Patriots have scored 30 or more points without a turnover in six straight games. No team had posted a streak greater than four games in NFL history. New England has proven to be a dominant team at the end of the season. They are a solid 24-10 ATS in the last two weeks of the regular season since 1992. Buffalo has played better football, but there is just no way the Patriots get caught flat and unfocused with so much at stake. Patriots are a 5* graded play and the simulator projections call for New England to win this game by a minimum of 10 points.
MTi Sports
49ers at Rams
Play: Under
The Rams are 0-7 OU (-14.7 ppg) at home when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak and the 49ers are 0-12 OU (-9.5 ppg) when the line is within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. Good luck
VEGAS EXPERTS
Washington Redskinds at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 0-8 ATS off a division loss and 2-10 in the home favorite role. This will be the most points they've been laying in a game all season and Washington is an amazing 32-14 ATS when taking 3.5 to 7 points on the road. Take the points.
Play on: Washington
Dave Price
1 Unit on Buffalo Bills +9
The Bills enter Sunday's contest with plenty of momentum, having won back-to-back games and 4 of their last 6. They won't be lacking any confidence today against a New England team they have played to within 8 or fewer points in each of the last three meetings. We saw what the Packers were able to do to the Buffalo defense with a backup QB making his first NFL start last week. The Buffalo offense put up 30 points on that susceptible unit in the season's first meeting, long before the Bills hit their stride. The Bills are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. the AFC. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Kansas City Chiefs -4
Kansas City has been dominant on its home field this season, where it is 6-0 and winning by 12.5 ppg. 1 win in 7 games for Tennessee isn't even close to enough to pull me off the Chiefs here in the midst of a tight division race. The Titans are a poor 3-11 ATS in their last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. While KC always looks to run the football, Cassel has proven to be an efficient passer. He should have his way with the poor Tennessee pass defense in this one. Consider that KC is 9-1 ATS in its last vs. awful pass defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Chargers/Bengals OVER 43
Look for a shootout today in Cincinnati as the red hot Chargers come to town. The Chargers are 6-1 over their last 7 games thanks to an offense that has scored 29 or more points six times. San Diego is scoring 27.7 points/game this year while Cincinnati is giving up 25.9 points/game. Look for the Chargers to put up 30-plus today and the Bengals to get close to their season-average of 21.6 points/game at home. San Diego's defense is giving up 23.3 points/game on the road this year where they have been a lot more vulnerable. The Chargers are 14-4 OVER (+9.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.65 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. San Diego has played pretty well defensively this season, but the Bengals have a passing attack that is certainly underrated due to their record. Plus, Cedric Benson rushed for a season-high 150 yards last week and can still get it done. Cincinnati is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=4.75 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. The Bengals have allowed 22 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games overall. The OVER is 6-0-2 in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the OVER 43 points here.