SPORTS WAGERS
Nashville +1.34 over ST. LOUIS
This game between these two division rivals is so close but the tag is not, thus, taking back this price on the Preds is the prudent move. These two have faced off against one another seen times in 2010 with three of them going to OT and in the other four games, the Preds went 3-1. Six of the seven games were decided by one goal and now the Blue Notes are –1.45? That’s an overlay and the price is high because the Preds have dropped three in a row while St. Louis has reeled off two straight including its last game against Detroit. The problem is that the Blue Notes are not playing that well and they’re still missing a whole bunch of key bodies. The Blue Notes may have beaten the Red Wings and Thrashers over their last two games but they were the second best team on the ice in both games and were outshot 38-25 and 39-27. Prior to that they lost two straight and mustered just 16 and 22 shots on net respectively. The Preds seldom go into prolonged funks because they play as hard and determined as anyone. They have a couple of key guys back in Patric Hornqvist and Pekka Rinne and there's also a chance of getting back David Legwand here. The Preds are strong defensively and their chances of winning here has to be considered as good or better than the home sides’ chances. Play: Nashville +1.34 (Risking 2 units).
CAROLINA +1.28 over Washington
The Caps are nowhere near out of its funk, despite winning two of their last three. Remember, they had lost eight straight before beating Ottawa and New Jersey and beating that duo is rather meaningless. Then they played the Pens in Washington and they lost, albeit in OT, but they still lost and as a result, the Caps confidence is nowhere near where it should be. They keep losing to teams above .500. Interestingly enough, this funk started when they traded away Tomas Fleishmann to the Av’s. Brice Boudreau is a terribly frustrated coach and the mood or aura of the coach often rubs off on the whole team. Boudreau is putting a ton of pressure on his goalies with his win and you play the next game philosophy and both Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov have not responded well. Boudreau might just be the next coach to get the axe. Meanwhile, Cam Ward is playing tremendous hockey. He gives the Canes a chance to win every night and it’s not like the Canes aren’t dangerous because they are. They had won four in a row before losing its last two to Tampa Bay and Montreal and you know for sure they’ll be jacked up here. The Caps are not a dominating team anymore and with nine losses in its last 11 games they’re a fragile team with a pair of fragile goaltenders. Play: Carolina +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Chuck O'Brien
Detroit (+3') at MIAMI
I know Detroit is just 1-26 in its last 27 road games, but that lone victory came last week at Tampa Bay, a spirited come-from-behind 23-20 overtime win against a team in the thick of the playoff hunt. Now that the Lions finally got that “can’t-win-on-the-road” monkey off their backs, I’m looking for them to make it two in a row over for two main reasons:
First, the Dolphins are dead in the water (they were eliminated from the playoffs after last week’s 17-14 loss to Buffalo). Second, they cannot win at home (with last week’s loss to the Bills, Miami fell to 1-6 in South Beach this season, compared with 6-1 on the road). In their last three at home, the Dolphins have lost to the Bears (16-0), Browns (13-10) and Bills, all as a chalk.
In fact, Miami is in a 6-28 ATS funk as a home favorite (part of the team’s 17-44-1 overall ATS freefall as a host).
Not only have the Dolphins produced just 24 points in their last three home games, they’ve scored just 34 points in their last three games overall. How frustrating has this team been? The defense has held the last six opponents to 17 points or less (and average of just 14.3 ppg) and Miami is just 3-3 SU and ATS during this stretch.
The Lions have followed up a five-game slide with back-to-back wins over playoff-contenders Green Bay (7-3) and Tampa Bay (23-20), proving to me that they’re fighting to the finish. At the same time, with the Dolphins now officially out of the playoff chase, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they came out flat in this game and laid a big egg.
Note this, too: Detroit and Atlanta have the NFL’s best pointspread records (10-4 ATS), and five of the Lions’ last seven games were tight (decided by 3, 2, 4, 4 and 3 points). Miami’s last three games were also close contests (13-10, 10-6 and 17-14).
The Chuckster smells another last-team-with-the-ball-wins type of game, so play the underdog.
3♦ DETROIT
Joel Tyson
Minnesota (+14) at PHILADELPHIA
Before you laugh, consider that the Eagles are primed for a letdown here, as they scored the improbable comeback win against the Giants last weekend, and they do have a home game against their other hated rivals the Dallas Cowboys on-deck for next week.
Minnesota may be bad, but consider this, NFL favorites of 14-points or more are 6-0 straight up this year, but only 2-4 against the spread.
Also consider the winter elements will make it difficult for the Eagles to pull away tonight.
The Vikings don't want to be humiliated once again under the prime time lights, so grab the generous impost as the Birds win it outright, but the Vikes stay inside of the roomy impost.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
Minnesota at PHILADELPHIA (-14)
I'm also playing Philly in a blowout tonight.
Or, shall I saw, playing Philly in a whiteout tonight?
Once again, the Vikings will be subjected to snowy conditions, and once again, they'll get blown out.
I doubt very much if the Vikings were able to stop the Bears' Jay Cutler, who has been able to count the number of lights in more stadiums this year than he ever had in Denver, they're not going to be able to contain Michael Vick on his own field.
And not on national television just one game after his miraculous performance against the Giants last week.
The Vikings have scored a combined 17 points in their last two games, while they rank 23rd in total offense and have been limited to 300 yards or fewer in five of their past six outings.
Now, with a young quarterback at the helm, on the road, they face a blitz-happy defense that ranks 12th in the league overall and 10th in the league in sacks.
This is going to be one helluva long night for Minnesota.
Lay the chalk with Philly.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Derek Mancini
Washington at JACKSONVILLE (-7)
Seems like a lot of points at first glance, but rest-assured, this Jags team is the real deal, at least at home. They'll be looking to bounce back strong here, coming off a tough loss to the Colts, where their run game got absolutely stuffed. I'd be very surprised if we saw Jones-Drew and company get limited two games in a row, especially against this struggling Redskins defense, allowing 144 rushing yards/game (on 4.7 ypc).
Washington on the other hand, has raised the white flag, losers of 4 in a row. I could care less about their cover against Dallas last week, because we all saw how good Dallas is last night (losing to Arizona). No question, the players have quit on the coaches, and the benching of McNabb was the final straw. Let's be honest, Grossman is a decent backup, but he's already proven to be way too turnover prone to start in the NFL.
Anyone who follows the Jags knows they are a different team at home, and their 5-2 record SUATS there proves it. Everyone from Garrard on down has been far more effective at EverBank Field. The fact the Jags are averaging 26 ppg on 372 total yards over their L3 games is music to my ears, as the Skins offense will be luck to score much more than a couple TDs. Long story short, lay the points, as Jaguars circle the wagons at home. Take Jacksonville over Washington Sunday.
3♦ JACKSONVILLE
Joel Tyson
Seattle (+6') at TAMPA BAY
Playoff implications abound in this Seattle-Tampa Bay game, and once again I feel the Bucs are laying a few points too many.
The Seahawks did take it on the chin at home last week against Atlanta, but a win today, and a home win over St. Louis next week would go along way for this team.
First things first, and Tampa is off another home pointspread failure last week - as the lost outright to the Detroit Lions!
The Buccaneers are on a 2-12-1 point spread slide their last 15 homes games, and I can easily see this one being played close to the vest with the game being decided by a late field goal.
Take the points with the Seahawks.
1♦ SEATTLE
Craig Davis
NY Jets at CHICAGO (-2')
Today's free play is on the Chicago Bears over the NY Jets.
I realize they played the Vikings, but the Bears looked really solid Monday night and I look for them to follow that up with a very solid performance against a better opponent.
The Jets are banged up, with injuries to QB Mark Sanchez and RB Shonn Greene... but the biggest question mark is QB Sanchez. He's dealing with a very sore shoulder, and all it's going to take is one solid hit from Julius Peppers to knock him out of the game and force aged Mark Brunell into the game.
Chicago is running the ball better than I thought they would, but Jay Cutler is the biggest surprise. He's not taking as many chances recently and finding the open receiver nearly every time he drops back.
As long as he gets time from his offensive line today, he'll be able to find Bennett or Knox or Hester or even RB Matt Forte open in the flat or over the middle.
The Jets were very fortunate to come out of Pittsburgh with a win last week, and now they have to do it all over again against a hard-hitting defense.
Advantage Bears. Take Chicago as your free play of the day.
3♦ CHICAGO
Chris Jordan
Tennessee at KANSAS CITY (-4')
It'll be cold, there likely won't be any snow, but there will likely be a scalping in Kansas City.
The inconsistent Titans don't stand a chance against a Chiefs team clinging to their playoff hopes, as they're one game ahead of the surging Chargers in the AFC West. But the way people talk, and the way people believe, the Chiefs will fold down the stretch, and San Diego will creep its way into the postseason. Undoubtedly, the second place team will probably be out of the playoffs.
Thus, wins are important at this stage of the game.
This is where Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel earn their keep.
I started the season talking about these two, and I will end the campaign discussing the importance of these two on staff. The fact coach Todd Haley has these two on staff will make a huge difference in the Chiefs earning key wins down the stretch.
Now here's the thing, knowing the Chargers are in Cincinnati, where winter weather conditions are expected, there is a likelyhood the Chiefs can quash all rumors of them folding, and can win the division with a victory coupling with a Bengals win.
The way I look at it, the Chiefs are getting quality play from quarterback Matt Cassel, who is back in the lineup and should be good to go for this game. The team leads the league in rushing, which is always good for ball control and clock management. They’ve played quality, if not dominant, defense. most of the season, and most importantly, they’re not turning the ball over.
In all, this is a quality football team that deserves to make it to the playoffs.
Lay the chalk with the Chiefs today.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Karl Garrett
Tennessee at KANSAS CITY (-5)
Kansas City controls their destiny in the AFc West, and their 6-0 straight up mark along with their 4-2 home spread mark look good to me!
The Titans just snapped a 6 game losing streak, and with losses in their last 3 on the road both straight up and against the spread, I have a feeling Tennessee is in over their heads in this roadie at Arrowhead.
KC has the home crowd all fired up, and today they give their faithful a Christmas blowout win to savor.
Lay the wood!
5♦ KANSAS CITY
Michael Cannon
Tennessee at KANSAS CITY (-5)
Take the Chiefs as the home chalk over the Titans.
Yes I realize Tennessee broke its six-game losing streak with last week’s win over the Texans. But Houston has packed it in and the Titans appeared to do so a while ago as well.
Not the Chiefs.
Kansas City is so close to the division crown it can taste it. All the Chiefs have to do is win out and the division is theirs.
I see them taking that first step today.
Arrowhead Stadium is going to be rocking and the Chiefs will feed off that. It’s not going to be hard for them to get the momentum here and keep it.
Eventually that will wear on the Titans and the Chiefs will pull away.
Lay the points with Kansas City for the win and cover.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Bobby Maxwell
Indianapolis at OAKLAND (+2')
For my comp selection, the Colts got the big win over Jacksonville last week, shutting down a potent rushing attack. Now they have to do it again – on the road – and I don’t think they can. Oakland runs the ball well and has a strong front 7 on defense that is going to get after Peyton Manning. I’ll grab the points with the home team Raiders here in this one.
Indianapolis allows 135.8 rushing yards per game, fifth-worst in the NFL. Oakland’s rushing game is second best in the NFL at 157.5 yards per contest. Raiders RB Darren McFadden has back-to-back 100-yard games and he puts up 5.2 yards per carry. Over their last two games, the Raiders have put up 978 yards of offense at Jacksonville and at home against the Broncos.
Defensively, the Raiders have the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL, giving up just 197.3 yards per game and you can count on CB Nnamdi Asomugha shutting down Colts’ WR Reggie Wayne.
Indy is on ATS slides of 1-3-1 as a road favorite and 2-7 in Week 16 games the last 9 years. Oakland is on positive ATS streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-2 as an underdog and 4-1 at home.
This game is going to be tight. Oakland’s defense will keep them in the game. Be smart and grab the points with the Raiders because we all know Manning could put his team in position for a winning FG at the end of the game. Play the Raiders in the one.
2♦ OAKLAND
Michael Cannon
Indianapolis at OAKLAND (+2')
Take the points with the Raiders at home today over the Colts.
Indianapolis is in for a big challenge today. The Raiders love to pound the rock and everyone knows the Colts can’t stop the run worth a lick.
Look for a big game from Darren McFadden and company.
As far as Peyton Manning goes, this is one defense he’s not real familiar with. That’s because the Colts rarely play the Raiders. You can bet Nnamdi Asomugha is going to blanket Reggie Wayne today, and that’s going to be a problem for the Colts. They are so banged up on offense that Manning can’t really trust the guys who are in the lineup now.
I predict a lot of frustration on the part of Manning.
The other aspect the favors the Raiders is the fact it’s a home game. The Colts have a speed defense, especially on the defensive line. Playing on the grass here is going to take away some of that quickness and allow the Raiders to run the ball more effectively.
Take the points with the Raiders.
3♦ OAKLAND
Stephen Nover
Houston at DENVER
Taking a look at the total in this game between the Broncos and Texans in Denver. Judging by the lack of quality in both of these defenses, it's easy to see why this game has the highest Sunday total at 49 1/2 to 50 points.
But much of this line is based on past performance.
The Broncos have scaled their attack way down with the insertion of Tim Tebow as their starting quarterback. From a spread offense to a conservative two tight-end formation, the Broncos have changed their methods.
All of this is great for an under. Tebow threw only 16 times in his starting debut last week. Even though the Texans have a terrible secondary, Broncos coach Eric Studesville said he is going to continue running this conservative offense.
This isn't the offense Josh McDaniels had in mind, but he's gone. Studesville wants to audition Tebow. That's not going to mean a lot of offense. Only once did Tebow get Denver into the red zone against Oakland. His lone touchdown throw actually should have been intercepted.
The Broncos have averaged just 14 points in their last three games going against Oakland, Arizona and Kansas City. None of those teams have been confused with having a dominant defense.
The Texans may not have star wideout Andre Johnson, which would impact them offensively.
1♦ HOUSTON/DENVER UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Giants (+3) at GREEN BAY
For my comp selection, this game will tell us a lot about the New York Giants. They were ambushed a week ago by the Eagles in that comeback victory, blowing a 21-point lead and losing 38-31. While winning the NFC East is likely out of the question, a playoff spot is reachable with a win today. I’ll grab the points with the Giants as they didn’t collapse on offense and looked very sharp against Philly.
New York is fifth in the NFL with 144.9 yards rushing per game and QB Eli Manning threw for four TDs in last week’s loss to the Eagles. Solid rushing attacks have given the Packers problems this season, including a home loss to the Dolphins and the road loss in Detroit two weeks ago.
The Giants have no problems scoring on the road, averaging 28 points a game away from home. They are on ATS surges of 34-16-1 on the road, 12-5 as a road ‘dog, 15-5 on the road against a team with a winning home record and 12-3-1 as a road ‘dog of up to three points.
Green Bay lost that tough Sunday night contest in New England last week, but today it’ll be Aaron Rodgers back at QB for the Packers. They are just 3-8-2 ATS at home against teams with winning road records.
This is a huge game in the NFC playoff picture and will likely get one of these teams a wildcard spot. It’s going to be intense and the Giants and that defense can step it up and want to make up for the debacle a week ago against the Eagles. Grab the points and play New York.
5♦ N.Y. GIANTS
Derek Mancini
NY Giants at GREEN BAY (-3)
Two teams coming off bitter losses collide at Lambeau Field this afternoon, and its time for the Packers to live up to all that preseason hype. The public is split on this game and I couldn't disagree more. The return of one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Rodgers, will reinvigorate a Packers offense that battled valiently against the Patriots last week. The best news for Packers fans was the strong game by Brandon Jackson, who will be needed to keep the Giants aggressive defense honest.
When I said "aggressive" I didn't mean aggressive and good. I meant simply that they're aggressive in their schemes, but this year that aggressiveness has backfired. Although their numbers are solid, the Giants are still allowing 20 ppg on the season, including 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. If Jackson can continue to have at least a modicum of success, then there's no question the Packers get the win and cover here. We know Rodgers will come out firing, and we saw what Vick did to this Giants defense last week.
Finally, consider the mindset of the Giants. You've got the coach berating a rookie punter on the field after a monster meltdown. You've got the notoriously critical New York media calling for Coughlin's head. And you've got a team that did everything possible to give away a critical game last week. Packers may have lost, but it was a solid effort and now they get their leader back. Look for them to respond accordingly. Lay it with Green Bay over the NY Giants.
2♦ GREEN BAY
Chuck O'Brien
San Diego at CINCINNATI (+8)
For your first of two NFL complimentary selections Sunday -- and FYI, I've hit six of my last eight NFL free plays -- take the points with Cincinnati at home against the Chargers.
I supported San Diego in its most recent game – a 34-7 rout of the 49ers 10 days ago that cashed a 15 Dime Thursday night play – but I’m fading the Bolts here because they’re back on the road after a three-game homestand. Yes, the Chargers won their last two road games (at Indianapolis and Houston), but that was after starting out 0-4 SU and ATS on the road. Not only that, those were outright upset losses to Kansas City, Seattle, St. Louis and Oakland.
The Bengals finally got off the schneid last week, holding off Cleveland 19-17 as a one-point home favorite to end a 10-game losing streak. And while San Diego is obviously better than the Browns, they’re no better than New Orleans and Pittsburgh, two teams that barely won in Cincinnati earlier this year (the Steelers barely held on 27-21; the Saints rallied for a 34-30 win).
The Bengals, who went to San Diego last year and lost 27-24 but covered a 6½-point number, would love nothing more than to stick a dagger into the Chargers’ playoff hopes and finish the home portion of their schedule with a victory.
Finally, San Diego has failed to cover in five of its last six games as a road favorite (0-4 ATS last four when laying 3½ to 10 points on the road), while Cincinnati is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home ‘dog.
The Chuckster not only sees Cincinnati covering wire-to-wire, but with the Chargers constantly stubbing their toe in games they’re supposed to win, I think an outright upset is a strong possibility.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Stephen Nover
San Diego (-8) at CINCINNATI
For one of my two Sunday complimentary plays I'll back San Diego at Cincinnati.
This price isn't too high to back a vastly superior San Diego squad against a banged-up, demoralized Bengals squad that is down eight defensive players since early November.
The Chargers are playing their best ball, which has been their history under Norv Turner in December.
San Diego ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in total offense. The Chargers have won six of their last seven. They have won by at least three touchdowns in their last four victories.
Antonio Gates won't be in action for San Diego, but star wideout Vincent Jackson, coming off a 3-TD performance in a blowout of the 49ers in their last game, makes up for the absence. The Chargers have scored 65 points in their last two games with Jackson on the field. Philip Rivers won't lack for weapons, especially operating against a battered Bengals secondary.
Last week, the Bengals allowed two touchdown passes, 9.7 yards per pass attempt and a 76 percent completion rate to rookie Colt McCoy and the weak Cleveland offense.
The Bengals are without Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco is at less than 100 percent. Morale is terrible with Cincinnati and Carson Palmer is past his prime with a patchwork receiver corps.
The Chargers are trying to hunt down Kansas City in the AFC West. The Bengals are reduced to play for pride. Oh, wait, the Bengals don't have any pride left.
5♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
Minnesota at CLEVELAND (-2)
Revenge should be on the brain of the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight, as the league's second-worst team comes to town with hopes of sweeping the season series after knocking off the Cavs earlier this month.
Minnesota routed Cleveland, 129-95, on Dec. 4.
And I'm betting that game has resonated the entire month for the Cavaliers.
It won't be so easy a second time around, as the T'Wolves are 1-17 on the road this season, while they come in riding a second-game losing streak.
The Wolves are in on additional slides of 3-9 ATS when visiting a team with a losing home record, 4-12 against the Central division and 2-6 when catching points in this range.
On the flipside, the Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 4-1 when hosting teams with a losing mark on the highway and 6-2 when playing on three or more days rest.
The favorite has covered five straight meetings, while the Cavs have covered eight of the last 10 overall.
2♦ CLEVELAND
Matt Fargo
Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Play: Minnesota Vikings +14
The Eagles are coming off an improbable win over the Giants last week as they scored four touchdowns in the latter half of the fourth quarter to absolutely stun the Giants. That victory basically locked up the division for Philadelphia and that win also provides us with a solid spot to go against the letdown. With that game being a divisional game, it will make it even more difficult for the Eagles to get up for this one, and even more so trying to cover the two-touchdown number. We were not in play in that game but we were in play last Monday in going against the Vikings. We have actually gone against Minnesota the last two games and while both were at home, they were not played at home and the distractions involved made them good go against spots. Now Minnesota is on the road and more importantly, it has had a normal week of preparations which is big here. The defense is playing at a high level still and that will keep this one much closer than expected. Minnesota falls into a solid situation that has been successful for the last 27 years. Play against home favorites of 10.5 or more points with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 after covering the spread in two out of their last three games playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 50-22 ATS (69.4 percent) since 1983. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five after gaining 350 or more total yards. The Vikings have yet to cover as underdogs this season but they have not been underdogs of a number this high either. 3* Minnesota Vikings
Rob Vinciletti
San Diego Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +9
The Chargers are in a negative system today that plays against road favorites of 6.5 or more off a win of 20 or more points, if they scored 42 or less and their opponent did not lose by 20 or more. This system has cashed 26 of 38 times. The Chargers also fall into another late season system that plays against teams on the road off 3 or more straight home games if they are off a win of 10 or more. Look for the Bengals to hang around here and get the cover.
Steve Merril
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
PICK: San Francisco 49ers +2.5
San Francisco has alternated wins and losses over their last five games. The 49ers come off a 34-7 blowout loss at San Diego in their last game, so if San Francisco’s recent pattern holds up, they should win this game. The 49ers also have the advantage of extra rest time since they last played on Thursday night, and that is a big-time edge this late in the season. Troy Smith will be back under center for this game, and when he faced the Rams earlier, Smith lit up their secondary for 356 passing yards after completing 17 of his 28 passes. Those 356 yards were the most through the air by San Francisco this season, so we expect more big plays in the air this afternoon.
St. Louis appears to be wearing down; the Rams have lost two straight games and four of their last six games overall. And their losses haven’t been close as three of the four have come by 14 points or more with the other being a 3-point loss at San Francisco. The Rams were out-gained 421-323 by the 49ers in that game, and we don’t see how St. Louis can turn things around here. We believe San Francisco is the better team, and since they have a solid edge in the passing game, we’ll recommend taking the points with the 49ers in this game this afternoon.