John Ryan
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Oakland Raiders +3
To the casual observer this would have to rank near “Toilet Bowl” consideration, but with the use of my proprietary Ai Simulator we have the opportunity to make some money together. This is a 3* graded play on the Oakland Raiders. Supporting this graded play is an extremely reliable money making system that has gone an amazing 26-5 ATS for 84% winners since 2004. Play against favorites after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games and with a losing record. Here is a second system that has gone 53-25 ATS for 68% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs or pick out gained by opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season and after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game. Oakland has had it’s moments with solid offensive performance, but it has been rare indeed. Cleveland, however, is just 1-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games versus very bad offensive teams scoring 14 or less points/game since 1992. Let’s take a look at a few of the matchup advantages that support Oakland and will have a dominating impact on the game. Oakland RB Michael Bush will have an excellent opportunity repeat last week’s 133 rushing performance against Denver. The key to watch in this game is whether NT Ahtyba Rubin will be able to occupy bit the Center and a guard. I don’t see how he will do that more than 25% of the time and this allow the guards and tackles to get to the second level and occupy linebackers. Bush also weighs 245 and can run over safeties and corners. The second is of course is fairly obvious with Richard Seymour going up against Tackle Joe Thomas. Seymour can over match even an elite tackle like Thomas and help in the form of the TE or RB will be needed on obvious passing downs. This allows the blitz to be even more effective with two Browns having to block Seymour. It becomes a numbers game and 3 against 2 always wins at the end of the day.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England Patriots -9.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New England as they host Jacksonville set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that the Patriots will win this game by 8 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 42-17 ATS for 71% winners since 1983. Play against road team after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points and in the last 2 weeks of the regular season. JAX is just 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons; 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. This is a game that allows the patriots to open up the offense. Welker and Moss can dominate a defense, but Brady must look off his first read then throw to the second or come back to the first. I believe that one of the reasons the Patriots have not been able to finish off opponents this year is simply because they have to receivers to go to. The Patriots don’t just want to make the playoffs. They want another Super bowl and the only way they can take a shot at that title again is have Brady throwing to at least 7 different receivers in this game. The biggest factor though is that NE is coming off their best pressure performance of the season getting 6 sacks against Buffalo last week. Gerrard does not deal with pressure so look for a lot from all angles possible to confuse Gerrard and have him more concerned about where the pressure is coming from than making his progressions. Take New England.
LT Profits
Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins
While the winner of this battle of 7-7 teams in the Houston Texans and the Miami Dolphins will have just a feint pulse in the playoff hunt pending other results, the loser will be mathematically eliminated.
With all due respect to the great job that Tony Sparano has done in his two years at Miami, we like the chances of the Houston passing tandem of Matt Schaub to Andre Johnson to put up points on what has become a questionable Miami secondary much more here than the odds of the more ball-control oriented Miami offense to match that output.
Besides Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, is there any other quarterback in the NFL that is having a better season than Schaub? All that he has done is pass for nearly 4200 yards while completing 68.6 percent of his passes, averaging an excellent 8.15 yards per attempt while tossing 25 touchdown passes. After watching Vince Young pass for 236 yards under very little pressure vs. the Fish last week, it is scary to think what Schaub can do here.
In fact, Miami is allowing an unacceptable 343.8 passing yards per game for the entire season on a generous 7.7 yards per attempt. Now on the offensive side, the Dolphins do lead the NFL in rushing at 148.1 yards per game, but the Texans run defense has stiffened lately, limiting their last three opponents to just 3.0 yards per carry. Also, Ricky Williams has suddenly become a fumbling machine, yet Miami has no choice to keep him in the game with Ronnie Brow out.
The bottom line here is that Houston is the better team and playing in the Miami sunshine should allow their passing game to flourish, resulting in a Texans victory.
Pick: Texans +3
Ben Burns
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: New York Jets
Last week's NFL member play was on the Raiders. Listed as double-digit underdogs, the Raiders traveled to Denver and won outright. This week, we'll back another road underdog, one which I also feel has a great shot at winning in "straight-up fashion."
Last week's results will likely cause many to favor Indianapolis. While the Colts knocked off Jacksonville to remain unbeaten, the Jets are coming off a disappointing loss vs. Atlanta. That was a particularly bitter defeat, as it all but mathematically eliminated them from playoff contention. That doesn't mean that we should automatically assume that the Colts will be the more "motivated" team though.
Last week, Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell publicly stated that "...all the healthy starters will play." He hasn't gone that far this week. At least, not yet. When asked of his plans for the amount of playing time that starters would see, he was quoted as saying: "Right now, I could not tell you exactly what it's going to be, whether or not a guy plays one series or the entire game, I couldn't tell you that honestly right now..."
Caldwell went on to say: "We're still going to base it on the health of each and every one of our players, as to what their situation is. Medical professionals will certainly give us direction in that and that's how we'll proceed in terms of playing this Jets game.... I'm not going to know exactly where we are from a health standpoint probably until toward the end of the week."
Given those comments and considering that the Colts have numerous players suffering from various nagging injuries and/or "bumps and bruises," I won't be surprised if at least a few of the starters see limited playing time.
As for the Jets, a win at Indianapolis would go a long way in soothing some of the pain of what has suddently become a disappointing season. Also, let's not forget that even though their chances are now very slim, the Jets ARE still mathematically alive for a Wildcard spot.
Regardless of their motivation level, it's been a long time since the Colts have shown the ability to consistently "win big." They were somewhat fortunate to beat the Jaguars by four points last week, as that game went back and forth with numerous lead changes. That marked the fifth time in their last eight games that they'd won by four points or less. Note that NONE of those eight games were decided by more than a dozen points. In other words, they've been playing "close games" for two full months now.
As for the Jets, last week's loss came by only three points. Prior to that, they'd won three straight. Looking back further and we find that only ONE of their last 10 games has resulted in a loss of greater than five points - and that came at New England vs. a motivated Patriots team determined to avenge an earlier loss at the Meadowlands.
With both teams having shown a tendency to play such close games, grabbing the points seems like the way to go. Consider New York
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "over":
Seattle looked horrible at home to Tampa Bay last weekend; the Buccaneers battered defense forced five turnovers from Seattle’s reckless Matt Hasselbeck, and they rallied to a 24-7 win over the Seahawks on Sunday.
Expect this veteran QB and his offensive corps to play with a little more pride this Sunday though.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "over" the posted number in four of Seattle's last six on the road overall.
On the other side of the field: Green Bay's playoff run stalled last week as they couldn’t hold leads of 28-27 and 36-30 in a frantic fourth quarter; the Packers could have secured a playoff spot with their first win in Pittsburgh since 1970 and a Giants loss or tie on Monday night but, instead, Minnesota clinched the NFC North with the Packers’ loss.
Aaron Rodgers finished 26 of 48 for 383 yards and three TD passes and ran for another; I expect another similar effort from him this week as the Packers try to finish the season strong.
Remember, the total has gone "over" the posted number in four of Green Bay's last six vs. Seattle. The Packers have also seen the total go "over" the posted number in both games vs. NFC West division opponents.
Bottom line: Look for Rodgers to shred the Seattle secondary and for Hasselbeck to "bounce-back" from last weeks terrible performance; when taking all of the above into account, the OVER is worth taking a second look at in this situation.
Vernon Croy
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Play: San Francisco 49ers -12
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and the 49ers are 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The 49ers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a loss and they are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games when favored by -10.5 or more points. The Lions are just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after covering the spread in their previous game and they are just 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. The 49ers have been playing great football at home having won 3 straight including dominating wins by more than 14 points against the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against the Lions and I look or them to roll at home Sunday afternoon. Take the San Francisco 49ers.
Wunderdog
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Oakland Raiders +3
The Raiders undoubtedly have QB issues, but last week they pounded the Broncos for 241 yards on the ground. Charlie Frye gets the start here and against Cleveland, he'll be good enough. After watching the Chiefs go for 5.6 yards a pop vs. the Browns, I expect Oakland to find some success in this game. The Raiders were struggling against the run, but the last two weeks have held opponents to less than 3.8 yards per carry in each contest. Brady Quinn is done for the year, meaning Derek Anderson gets the QB assignment which hasn't been good for the Browns. He has already had two chances to secure the starting role, with the lowly Quinn his competition. He couldn't grab the starting spot either time. The Raiders and Browns are both bad teams, but the Raiders have shown a much higher ceiling with wins over Denver, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Cleveland has had no success as a favorite and really don't belong in that role as the last four times they have been given the oddsmakers edge they are 0-4 ATS. The fact is that in those four games, the Browns lost them all straight up, which certainly is more likely than not to repeat itself here. The Raiders have played their best ball on the road this year, posting three of their five wins, while the Browns are just 1-5 at home. I like the Raiders in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
PITTSBURGH –3 +1.07 over Baltimore
The Steelers still don’t appear to have its swagger back and everyone is calling them lucky to have won last week in that bizarre sequence towards the end of the fourth quarter against Green Bay. However, a win is a win is a win and it’s just what the Steelers needed. The Ravens are considered to be a good team and one that could go a long way in the playoffs should they get there. If the season ended today they would be a #5 seed and they do control its own destiny. But more than that is this opponent and its 8-6 record, which is worth taking a close look at. Over its last seven games the Ravens are 4-3 with wins over Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago and these same Steelers in OT. If you recall that OT win came against the Steelers was in Baltimore no less and the Steelers were minus Ben Roethlisberger and a slew of other key players (the Ravens were an 11-point favorite). Baltimore’s three losses were against Indy, Green Bay and Cincinnati. The Ravens other three losses on the year were to Cincinnati (again), New England and Minnesota. In reality, they have one good win this season and that came in week 2 in San Diego but the Chargers were off to its traditional slow start. They really don’t have a signature win all season long but have had about six chances to do so and failed each time. The Ravens are imposters and while the Steelers have had its own trouble and a few disturbing losses to go with it, they really showed some life last week against one of the league’s hottest teams. Expect that to carry over as the Steelers make a desperate push towards making the post-season. This time they’ll have Big Ben. Play: Pittsburgh –3 +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
NY Jets +5½ over INDIANAPOLIS
Let’s see if I have this straight, shall we? The Colts are undefeated in the past 23 regular season games. They clinched home field throughout and that was prior to last week’s game against the Jags. Yet, and despite that, Peyton Manning and company played like a playoff spot was up for grabs. The Jags pressed them all game yet the Colts just kept coming and it was the first time in a month they’ve broken a sweat. The Colts last two home games were both double-digit wins over contenders Denver and Tennessee. Meanwhile the Jets lost as a 6½-point favorite at home last week to the Falcons. The Jets last two wins have come against Tampa Bay and Buffalo. They had lost six of seven before a win over the then reeling Panthers. Furthermore, the Jets playoff hopes are hanging by a thread at best. In fact, heading into the final week in Cincinnati, Gang Green is going to need a lot of help from other folks this week that include a Jacksonville loss at New England, a Miami loss to visiting Houston and a Baltimore loss at Pittsburgh OR Denver loss at Philadelphia. Plus, they have to win this one and that’s just to have a chance. So, the question now becomes why oh why did the books make the Colts such a small favorite? Are you kidding me? The Colts should be at least a –7 and had the books made them a 7-point favorite they wouldn’t have swayed a single bet. This line will rise to –6 or –6½ as the game approaches so wait until then if you’re on board. I’m waiting and I’ll update it Sunday morning to let you know what price we got. The point is, this one smells like a total rat and the books are absolutely trying to entice Colts money. This is a QB mismatch, the Colts are at home, they haven’t lost a regular season game in about 10 years, Manning and everyone else is playing, they were a 3-point favorite on the road last week in Jacksonville and now they’re an awfully small 5½-point choice at home. If that doesn’t smell funny, nothing does. Even if you can’t pull the trigger on the Jets, I urge you not to do it on the Colts either. The trap has been set; don’t spring it. Play: NY Jets +5½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Jacksonville +8 over NEW ENGLAND
This line is so out of whack it’s not even funny. If you make one bet this week make it this one, as these Patriots are struggling miserably to not only win but to score and/or defend. In fact, they really don’t have the ability to defend and as the season wears on and these older players get more banged up and fatigued they also become a lot less effective. The Pat won in Buffalo last week 17-10 but that score is flattering to New England, as they were the second best team on the field. The week before they were tooth and nails at home to beat Carolina with Moore at QB and that 20-10 score was also flattering, as it looked like the Panthers were going to win outright. Prior to that they had dropped three of four. Fact is, the Pats have not been able to stop an efficient offense all season long and the Jags certainly qualify. They have a well-balanced attack and a great running game. They’ve also had 10 days to prepare after that near upset over the Colts and this late in the season that’s a big edge. New England is a fraction of the team they once were and they’re simply not feared anymore and nor should they be, as they’ve become as mediocre and unreliable as about 20 other teams in this league. Play: Jacksonville +8 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Randall the Handle
Chiefs @ Bengals
We like what the Bengals have accomplished this season after most figured that they would continue to underachieve. What we don’t like is spotting points with them. Cincinnati has a bad habit of playing to its opponent’s level as evidenced by their uncanny 13-1 record for the underdog in their games. The Bengals have yet to cover as a fave and this price range makes it all the more unlikely. The Chiefs lost a whacky one to Cleveland last week but still managed to throw for more than 320 yards.TAKING: Kansas City +13½ RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2
Broncos @ Eagles
Eagles ascending at right time of year but Donovan McNabb and Co. have been aided by a recent schedule that had them facing some of the weaker pass defences in the league. That won’t be the case here as the Broncos boast the 2nd best ranking at defending the pass. Both teams fighting for post-season positioning but Denver likely to have greater sense of urgency after allowing the Raiders to steal one from the last week. QB Kyle Orton has been solid on the road all season and should continue same here. TAKING: Denver +7 RISKING: 2.26 units to win 2
THE REST
Raiders @ Browns
Don’t expect the same kind of shootouts that the Browns enjoyed against equal caliber Lions and Chiefs. If nothing else, the Raiders can play defence while excelling on special teams. Raiders have won three of five against much superior opposition. TAKING: Oakland +3
Seahawks @ Packers
Seattle has lost 21 of its past 30 games. It has won just three of its past 15 road games with two of those victories occurring in St. Louis .. The Seahawks have been outscored by a 2:1 ratio when leaving their nest this season. Things won’t improve here TAKING: Green Bay –14
Bills @ Falcons
Brian Brohm will quarterback the Bills here and while he has yet to take a snap as a pro, we figure he can’t be much worse than what Buffalo has trotted out thus far. The Falcons are eliminated from post-season and don’t figure to pour it on. TAKING: Buffalo +9
Texans @ Dolphins
Just when you think the Texans have things figured out, they inevitably shoot themselves in the foot more blatantly than Plaxico Burress. Both squads remain eligible for playoff activity but Miami ’s more disciplined style will keep their hopes alive. TAKING: Miami –3
Panthers @ Giants
We’ve seen the Giants peak this time of year before and after last week’s complete effort and domination of the Redskins, we could similar effort here. Panthers neophyte QB Matt Moore looked good against Vikings last week but this setting offers much stiffer challenges. TAKING: NY Giants –7
Buccaneers @ Saints
Saints can have a nice rest if they knock off these Bucs and they should have no trouble doing so. New Orleans will be anxious to make amends after suffering first defeat while Tampa Bay will be travelling for fourth time in five weeks. TAKING: New Orleans –14
Jaguars @ Patriots
Patriots keeping it together despite limited roster. Jags offer enough challenges to keep New England honest and with Tom Brady’s recent reluctance to spread the field, this one could easily come down to the wire. TAKING: Jacksonville +8
Ravens @ Steelers
Can’t rely on Pittsburgh to defeat any team by any margin these days, especially a Ravens team that appears primed to make some noise heading into post-season. Baltimore won first meeting with defensive formula that can work again. TAKING: Baltimore +2 ½
Rams @ Arizona
Arizona has outside shot at #2 seed while seeking to redeem itself in front of home fans that haven’t forgotten debacle two weeks ago versus Niners. Rams continue to underwhelm with just one win in past 24 games. TAKING: Arizona –14
Lions @ 49ers
The Lions have now lost 19 straight on road, including all seven this season. Each of this year’s defeats have been by double digits. While we’re not anxious to be giving away this many with sub .500 San Francisco squad, it is preferred to alternative. TAKING: San Francisco –11 ½
Cowboys @ Redskins
Wonder which version of each team shows up here? Let’s go with the ‘good’ Dallas squad over the battered and surrendering Washington group. Jim Zorn is a dead man strolling while Cowboys should feed off win over Saints. TAKING: Dallas –6 ½
Jets @ Colts
While their coach didn’t realize that they are still mathematically alive for a wildcard spot, the Jets playoff aspirations are flickering at best. Colts can play at half speed and still cover against this meager visitor. Indy rests starters only when this one is well in hand. TAKING: Indianapolis –5 ½
Vikings @ Bears
Brett Favre’s diva ways resurfacing but may not matter against this woeful opponent. Bears have tossed in the towel and have covered just one game since mid-October. Minnesota can’t let up with Eagles chasing them for #2 spot. TAKING: Minnesota –7
Marc Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars invade Foxboro to take on the Patriots in a key AFC clash with playoff implications on the line for Jacksonville. Sitting dead-even at 7-7 along with six other AFC teams on the season, the Jaguars realize they can't afford to lose ground at this stage of the campaign. With that we note that .500 road dogs in the NFL are 19-9-2 ATS in Game Fifteen when facing a sub. 800 opponent. With the Jags 8-0 ATS as road dogs when playing with revenge (lost to New England in the 2007 playoffs) under Jack Del Rio, look for the Patriots to fall to 1-8-1 ATS at home in games after allowing less than 10 points in its previous game here today. Grab the points.
Black Widow
1* on New York Giants -7
With New York having a lot still to play for, and Carolina having nothing to play for, we'll lay the points with the Giants at home Sunday. New York is coming off their most dominant performance of the season, a 45-12 road win over the Redskins. Their offense is scoring 38.0 points/game over their last 3 games, and Carolina doesn't have the offensive firepower to hang with New York on Sunday. The Panthers will be playing without star RB DeAngelo Williams, putting them at an even bigger disadvantage. Carolina is getting way too much respect for their upset win over Minnesota last week in a big letdown game for the Vikings. Now, all value rides with the Giants this week in another must-win game that they will clearly be up for. The Giants are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992. Take New York and lay the points.
Bob Wingerter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Play: New Orleans Saints -14
One more win and the Saints will control home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. It won't be an easy task for the Saints on Sunday, even though they destroyed Tampa Bay by a 38-7 score back on November 22 in the first meeting between these NFC South foes. Brees threw three touchdown passes that day, and is expected to have similar success with the possibility of the Superdome serving as home for the next few weeks. The defense may not hold the Buccaneers to seven points, but the offense will do enough to distance the gap. Tampa Bay's Morris is closing out a rather trying first season as head coach and could bolster both his resume' and the team's optimism for next season with an improbable win on Sunday. The chances of that happening are slimmer than Colston's frame, which will be bending and jumping in all sorts of directions during the Saints' upcoming franchise-best 14th victory of the season. Good team off a loss, vs. bad team off a win which travels for the second straight week, an unusual week w/the holiday in it. The Bucs got only 24 points at Seattle despite getting 5 turnovers. They don’t have enough offense to hang with a team that has lots of offense, and whose defense might be sagging a bit but faces Josh Freeman on the other side. Freeman is not ready for prime time and has been propped up by things they can't use here.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Dallas -6.5 vs Washington
Baltimore +2.5 vs Pittsburgh
Jets/Colts Under 40.5
Single Plays
Houston +3 vs Miami
Jacksonville +7.5 v sNew England
San Francisco 12 vs Detroit
Jets +5.5 vs Colts
Chicago +7 vs Minnesota
Baltimore/Pittsburgh Over 42
New England/Jacksonville Under 44
Houston/Miami Over 45
SportsInsights
Tampa Bay Bucs vs. New Orleans Saints
In the spirit of the holiday season, Tampa Bay has been lit up like a Christmas Tree. All of the top-performing Smart Money sportsbooks have triggered plays on Tampa Bay. A sampling of the triggering sportsbooks and their Smart Money records includes: BetMania 27-18, Pinnacle 23-11, ABC 24-15, and Carib Sports 29-13.
Our main offshore contact circled this game. He told us that "big money came in early and pushed the line down from an opening line of 16 down to 14 points pretty quickly." He pointed out that the junk bettors were getting down on New Orleans in a big way. SportsInsights' data shows that about 80% of teasers and parlays are, indeed, getting down on the Saints. We like "betting against the Public" and going with the Smart Money. We also like the fact we can still get +14.5 at SIA.
Tampa Bay Bucs +14.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Historically, the last few weeks of the NFL Regular Season has seen the Public overvalue Visiting Favorites. This means that home dogs are undervalued near the end of the season. We like getting Washington +7 at home at SIA for a lot of reasons:
Smart Money is getting down on Washington. This is supported by the following SportsInsights' Smart Money triggering sportsbooks: Phoenix 15-5, Betonline 22-11, and Catalina 20-15.
The Public is overwhelmingly on Dallas. A huge 83% of "spread bets" -- and an even bigger 88% of "teasers and parlays" -- are currently on Dallas.
This is a big Divisional rivalry. Although this is an off-year for Washington, you can bet that the Redskins will be up for this game.
The 4-10 Redskins are underrated because they play in the tough NFC East Division. Washington has actually scored just 50 fewer points than they have given up.
Washington got blown out 45-12 last week on Monday Night Football. Let's buy a competent Redskin team after that nationally-televised loss.
The overwhelming number of bets has pushed the line to the key level of Washington +7 at SIA. This is a solid value.
Washington Redskins +7
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
Our old favorite -- reverse line movement -- is pointing towards the Chicago Bears in this match-up. The line opened at Chicago +7.5 but quickly moved to Chicago +7 -- even with 80% of the bets taking the Vikings. Our faithful readers know that we like this kind of reverse line movement because it means that "big money" is more than counter-balancing the barrage of Public Bets -- that are normally on the favorite. We'll ride the "big money" coattails and "fade the Public."
In addition to "reading the tape" of the NFL point spread marketplace, there is value in betting home dogs during the end of the Regular Season. Finally, this is a good old-fashioned Divisional rivalry -- so the Bears will definitely be a "live" home dog. Being under the spotlight of Monday Night Football should also get the Bears up for this game. Take the 7 points and a Bears team that should certainly be motivated for this game.
Chicago Bears +7
OffshoreInsiders
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots
It sure doesn’t feel like the Patriots have won two straight games, does it? But that’s the impression we’ve gotten watching the Pats try to move the ball lately. Tom Brady hooked up with Randy Moss once last week but let’s face it; they aren’t connecting right now. For whatever reason, Brady is off; he’s topped 250 passing yards once and thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes over his last four games. Protection isn’t the issue; he’s been sacked just twice over that span. It doesn’t help that Moss is quitting on plays, too.
In theory, a matchup versus Jacksonville’s pass defense, which ranks 27th in the league, should remedy New England’s offensive woes. Brady has been superior at home, throwing 13 touchdown passes versus three interceptions at Gillette Stadium. Since the Pats are also 7-0 at home, it’s hard to imagine them losing this one.
However, I’m not too confident that they’ll win by more than a touchdown. New England kept the Panthers and Bills’ offenses in check over the last two weeks but those were one-dimensional units that struggle to pass the ball. David Garrard is no star but he’s much more capable than Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll keep the Pats honest and help open up room for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the rock. As long the Jags stay close and can still run the ball, I think they’ll lose by seven points or less.
Pick: Jaguars +7.5
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Just when we thought the Steelers were totally hopeless, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 500 yards and stole a game from the Green Bay Packers in Week 15, keeping the Black and Gold mathematically alive in the AFC playoff hunt. Does that mean we can expect another strong performance from the Steelers at home this week?
This is a tough pick for football handicappers. On one hand, Pittsburgh seems energized. They’re a different team when Big Ben is clicking and the Ravens’ secondary has been beatable since it lost Fabian Washington. On the other hand, Pittsburgh has been torched regularly since it lost Troy Polamalu and Joe Flacco has the arm strength to do it again. Ultimately, these two teams are almost mirror images. Both stop the run well, both make mistakes against the pass, and both are well-rounded offensively. Troy Polamalu’s absence may make the difference. Pick Baltimore but switch to Pittsburgh if Troy miraculously returns from his PCL sprain. Also remember that the Steelers are just 1-4 against their own division this season.
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Denver Broncos @ Philadelphia Eagles
Though the Broncos and Eagles rarely play each other in cross-conference battles, we can expect plenty of fireworks in this matchup, as both teams are inching closer to locking up playoff berths. Averaging 257.8 passing yards and 106.8 rushing yards per contest, the Eagles are among football’s most balanced teams. Donovan McNabb is good for at least one huge connection with DeSean Jackson every week and LeSean McCoy has played fairly well since getting the starting running back reins after Brian Westbrook went down. McNabb is in tough against the Denver Broncos, who have the NFL’s No. 3 defense and rank seventh in the league in sacks.
We may not see an explosive offense performance from Philly, who seems to be better at exploiting weaker or banged up defensive units. But the Eagles’ “D” should bottle up the Broncos’ offense. Kyle Orton has trouble against aggressive pass-rushing teams, as he showed during a three-pick performance against the Steelers earlier this season. He’s also getting poor protection of late – he’s been sacked 10 times in his last four games – so it could be open season for Philly’s front seven. Those picking the NFL point spread should expect a defensive battle but go with the home team on the strength of the Eagles’ pass rush, which is even better than Denver’s.
Pick: Eagles -7
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
America’s Team is holding its head high after marching into New Orleans and ending the Saints’ perfect run last week. But wouldn’t it be so fittingly Dallas to follow up that triumph with a loss to lowly Washington? The Redskins are an almost-respectable 3-4 at home and have the league’s No. 5 pass defense, not to mention a solid pass rush. Tony Romo looks like he’s conquering his bad December history but let’s remember that last week’s victory came indoors. A cold night game in D.C. is a different story.
The Cowboys should find a way to win on Sunday night, especially if they commit to the run with Felix Jones, Marian Barber and Tashard Choice. But I think the Redskins beat the spread at home.
Pick: Redskins +6.5
Murray Hill Mike
Carolina Panthers at NY Giants
Both teams are coming off big victories last week as Carolina defeated Minnesota 26-7 and the New York Giants went into Washington on Monday Night to defeat the Redskins 45-12 as a 3-point favorite. The Giants are now 8-6 and still in the NFC Wild Card race. In the NFC East they are two games back of Philadelphia who has already defeated them twice this season and one game back of the Dallas Cowboys. We love the Giants here with their backs up against it. Consider the team trends. Carolina is 1-5 ATS against NFC East division opponents, 7-14 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders, 2-5 ATS after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, 2-5 ATS off a huge double digit upset win as an underdog of 6 or more, 3-8 ATS after outrushing opponent by 75 or more yards last game and 2-5 ATS after outgaining opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game. The New York Giants are 25-13 ATS against conference opponents, 22-10 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins, 22-9 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in 2 straight games, 13-4 ATS off a road win, 8-3 ATS off a win against a division rival, 5-1 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, 4-0 ATS in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and 6-1 ATS off back-to-back division games.
Play on: NY Giants