VEGAS EXPERTS
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns
Can the Browns possibly win three straight? We think so! They have covered each of the last four meetings with Oakland, who is 0-4 SU/ATS off their previous four SU wins this season, losing those games by an average of 24 points per game. Cleveland is a perfect 7-0 ATS after scoring 30 points or more the previous week.
Play on: Cleveland
Matt Fargo
New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: New York Jets +5.5
The Colts snuck by yet again this past week, this time a four-point win over the Jaguars to move to 14-0 on the season. The starters played the entire game but once again there is the debate about whether or not those starters will play a full game again this week. I am playing this game as it the Colts starters will be in the entire game, or at least the majority of it, and if they come out early, that is only an added benefit to us. Colts Head Coach Jim Caldwell said Monday the team has not yet decided how long starters will play and he said he plans to play all players who are healthy, but he didn't elaborate on just how long those healthy starters would play against the Jets and that alone tells us that they will likely be coming out before this game is over. We shall see. The Jets lost a brutal game at home against the Falcons on Sunday which severely hurt their playoff chances. Now they will have to defeat the lone remaining undefeated team in the league and then win at home against the Bengals next week who may still very well be playing for something also. New York is tied with five other teams at 7-7 and winning out for any of them could mean nothing as they all trail both Baltimore and Denver by a game for those Wild Card playoff spots. Any losses by any of those teams means their playoff shots are done so the Jets obviously need to win this game. They have actually fared better on the road this season, going 4-3 and while this is the hardest test of all, it is one that can be passed. Indianapolis has been winning but it has been anything but impressive in my eyes. Over the last seven games, the Colts have actually been outgained in five of those and the other two saw yardage advantages by only 21 and 24 total yards. In total over this stretch, Indianapolis is -145 in yardage which is a big surprise for a team that is 7-0 over that span. Making matters worse is that they have been outrushed in eight straight games and that will play right into the gameplan of the Jets who are one of the best rushing teams in the NFL and they have a +271 rushing yardage differential over the last three games. The overall Jets defense has been great recently and what better time to be playing good than against one of the best offenses in the NFL. New York has allowed only 8.0 ppg over the last four games and it has outgained all four opponents. If not for a late touchdown by the Falcons, the Jets would be on a 4-0 run heading into this game. The Jets also fall into a solid contrarian situation. Play against teams with a winning percentage greater than .750 after three consecutive covers as a favorite in the second half of the season. This situation is 23-7 ATS (76.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 3* New York Jets
TEDDY COVERS
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +13.5
Sometimes, the KISS philosophy works extremely well in the handicapping process – Keep It Simple, Stupid! It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that the Bengals are 0-6 ATS as a favorite so far this season, losing three of those games in outright fashion. In fact, the underdog in Cincinnati games this year has gone 12-1 ATS – the Bengals are a good team to take points with but they make a very poor favorite.
Cinci faces a major distraction this week after the team travelled to Florida for Chris Henry’s funeral on Tuesday, losing practice time as well as their teammate. And the Bengals repeated offensive struggles make them a poor choice for this two touchdown pointspread range to begin with – the Bengals have been held to 18 points or less in seven of their last ten games, including games against defensive weaklings like Detroit, Cleveland and Oakland (0-3 ATS against said weaklings).
The Chiefs lost at home to Cleveland last week, giving up two kick return touchdowns to Joshua Cribbs and nearly 300 rushing yards to Jerome Harrison. Lost in the defeat were the positive signs from KC’s offense – 34 points, and nearly 500 total yards; buoyed by the return of star receiver Dwayne Bowe to the lineup after a four game absence.
KC head coach Todd Haley was adamant about his desire to create some positive momentum heading into the offseason. Haley: “I think there is no doubt you can create momentum….When you can finish strong that you definitely give yourself a boost going into the off-season …..We’re going on the road against a very good playoff-caliber team that’s playing to get in. It’s an opportunity for us to have a positive experience and bounce back from a poor performance on defense and, offensively, I feel like we’re building a little momentum which gives us a chance to go against a very good defense, specifically run defense, and build on what we’re doing.” 2* Take Kansas City.
Rob Vinciletti
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns -3
The Browns fit 2 solid systems here today. Lets take a look at one. hat we want to do is play against road teams like Oakland in a non division game off a divisional road dog win and scored 25 or less if today's opponent won or lost by 7 or less points in their last game. Oakland will bounce here today off their big division road win vs Denver. The Raiders are just 1-7 off a win and this year they have been blown out after each win. Cleveland is still playing pretty hard as evidenced by their 41-34 win at KC last week. This week veteran Qb D. Anderson gets the start and he will look to put this years struggles behind him with a solid home performance against Oakland. Look for the Browns to play hard here and get the win.
JR TIPS
BRONCOS at EAGLES
Brian Dawkins who played for the Eagles 13 years and who is one of Philadelphia's most beloved athletes will make his much anticipated return to the Philly today as a Denver Bronco. The Eagles opted not to bring back the seven time Pro Bowl safety after last season but the Philadelphia fans will have a chance to show Dawkins their appreciation when he is announced today as a Denver Bronco. The Eagles haven't lost a beat without Dawkins as they are the hottest team in the NFC with five straight wins and will try to clinch its eighth playoff berth in 10 years after last week's 27-13 win over San Francisco. The Eagles rank 11th overall on defense as they are tied for the third most interceptions in the league with 23. Brian Dawkins who has 100 tackles has made a huge difference on a Denver defense that was fourth worst in the NFL last season to No. 3 in the league this season. Philadelphia can win the NFC East with a win today coupled with a loss by Dallas to Washington on Sunday night while Denver holds one of two wild-card spots in the AFC and can ensure a playoff spot by winning its final two games. The Eagles will welcome back former Pro Bowl tailback Brian Westbrook who has been cleared to play after recovering from two concussions that caused him to miss the last five weeks. Westbrook will share plays with running back LeSean McCoy and work himself back into starting lineup slowly. Donovan McNabb has quietly been one of the hottest quarterbacks in the league averaging 264.6 yards with a total of seven touchdowns during the Eagles' 5 game winning streak while Denver has lost two straight including last Sunday's 20-19 home loss to Oakland. The Broncos have only averaged 87.5 per game rushing over the last two weeks which has put more pressure on quarterback Kyle Orton who won't have receiver Eddie Royal today who is out with an injury although he will have their go to receiver Brandon Marshall. The Eagles are one of the hottest team in the league right now as the Broncos are going the opposite direction as the Denver defense let third string quarterback Jamarcus Russell drive down the field with under 2 minutes to beat them at home last week. The Bronco defense will have no chance against Donavon Mcnabb and Desean Jackson who have been the most dangerous homerun threat in the league this year not to mention Brian Westbrook who will give them another weapon on the ground today.
TAKE EAGLES -7.5
BIG AL
Detroit at San Francisco
Detroit falls into an NFL system that's cashed 70% ATS over the past 30 years. What we want to do is play on any team that covered the spread (but lost straight-up) the previous week as a double-digit home underdog. Although unsuccessful in the win column, those teams use the momentum established from that strong effort and generally follow-up with another pointspread win. Last week, Detroit was a 14-point home underdog to Arizona, but fell 31-24 to the Cardinals. Off that solid performance, look for Detroit to build on that game, and come through here against the 49ers. Take the points.
PLAY DETROIT
EZWINNERS
San Francisco 49ers -14
Both of these teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, but San Francisco head coach Mike Singeltary will have his team playing hard. Quarterback Drew Stanton gets the start for the injury depleted Lions. Lay the points.
Tony Mathews
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Selection: Kansas City Chiefs +14
The Cincinnati Bengals are in such a bad place "emotionally" right now that it doesn’t matter who or where they are playing, just that it is the right situation to go against them. Despite a 3 point loss against the Chargers last week after trying for a tie in the last 60 seconds of the game, the Bengals played exceptionally well considering the death of wide receiver Chris Henry only 3 days before. That game was emotionally charged but with Henry’s funeral service taking place on Tuesday, the Bengals will no doubt be struggling this Sunday.
Having yet to cover as favorite, Cincinnati has played several close and low scoring games this season. In addition, as a double digit favorite they won SU (not ATS) against Cleveland (16-7) and Detroit (21-13) (which was their last two games at home).
With so much going on for Cincinnati they will have a hard time managing a straight up win as they struggle against this lowly opponent. Expect Kansas City to keep this game within the spread on Sunday.
Take the Kansas City Chiefs +14
Brian Marshall
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -14
The Seahawk defense has been abysmal on the road for the entire season having allowed an average of 411.3 yards and 30.3 points per game in their last 7 games away. In addition, Seattle’s opponents have had an amazing completion rate of 71.2% and 278.9 yards per game. Aside from the terrible statistics, the Seahawks’ incompetence is very telling by the simple fact that they are only 1-6 SU on the road with all six defeats coming by double digits.
It appears that Seattle has all but quit this season after last week’s game against the Buccaneers. In that game they managed to score just 7 points against Tampa Bay with absolutely no points scored after the second half. In fact, over their last three games combined, the Seahawks have managed to score a total of just 6 points after half time against all three non-playoff opponents.
While Seattle is absolutely horrible, Green Bay is 5-0-1 ATS. They have a competent pass attack that will torch the Seahawk defense using this weak opponent to instantly make up for last week’s loss.
Take the Green Bay Packers -14
SPORTS ADVISORS
Seattle (5-9 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (9-5, 9-4-1 ATS)
The Packers, looking to solidify their wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs, return home from a two-game road swing to face the struggling Seahawks at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay lost a wild contest at Pittsburgh 37-36 last Sunday on a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass as time expired, ending the Packers’ five-game SU run. But the Packers cashed as a 2½-point pup, moving to 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. Green Bay is putting up 378.8 ypg (fifth) and 27.1 ppg (seventh), and over the last six games, QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 12 TDs against just two INTs – and both picks came in a 27-14 win over Baltimore.
Seattle got drubbed for the second straight week, this time at home by one of the worst teams in the league in a 24-7 loss to Tampa Bay as a 6½-point favorite, following a 34-7 beatdown at Houston as a seven-point pup. The Seahawks are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, getting held to 20 points or less five times in that stretch, and they are averaging just 18.4 ppg (22nd) while allowing 23.2 ppg (23rd).
Green Bay has won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-17 road decision catching one point in October of last season. Nine months earlier in the divisional playoffs, the Pack rumbled to a 42-20 blowout home as a nine-point chalk. Green Bay is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.
The Packers are just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 laying points, 3-0-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in December. On the flip side, the Seahawks are on ATS dives of 4-9 overall, 1-7 in roadies, 0-8 catching points on the road, 0-6 against winning teams and 3-7 in conference action.
The over for Green Bay is on tears of 23-7 after a spread-cover, 21-8-1 against NFC opponents, 12-5 as a home chalk and a lengthy 47-23-2 against losing teams. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1). However, Seattle is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Oakland (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Cleveland (3-11, 8-6 ATS)
The Browns pursue a surprising third straight victory when they play host to the Raiders, who have posted three big upsets in the past five weeks.
Cleveland outlasted Kansas City 41-34 Sunday in a shootout as a one-point road pup, winning SU for the second week in a row and cashing for the fifth straight week. Despite the Browns’ recent uptick, they are still 30th in the league in scoring (14.2 ppg) and 31st in total yards (255.8 ypg), and their turnover margin of minus-14 is the worst in the league.
QB Brady Quinn (right foot) is done for the season, so Derek Anderson will return to the starting role for Cleveland.
Oakland shocked Denver with a last-minute TD to claim a 20-19 road win as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog – two weeks after a road upset of Pittsburgh, and four weeks after a home win over first-place Cincinnati. However, the Raiders have been inconsistent at best all year, following up all four of their previous wins with double-digit losses (0-4 ATS). Oakland remains dead last in total offense (253.1 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg).
These teams have met five times this decade, with Cleveland covering in the last four (3-1 SU). Most recently, Oakland won 26-24, but fell short as a three-point home favorite in 2007. The SU winner is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
Along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, the Browns are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 against the AFC, 10-4 against losing teams and 9-4 following a SU win, but they are also in an 0-4 ATS rut in the rare role of favorite, and they’ve gone just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Raiders have cashed in four of their last five in conference action, though they are on ATS declines of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win, 4-20-2 as a pup of three points or less, 16-37-1 against losing teams and 18-38 in December.
Cleveland is on “under” stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 laying points, 12-4 as a home chalk and 10-3-1 in December, and the under for Oakland is on streaks of 5-1-1 against losing teams and 9-3 with the Raiders getting three points or less. However, the over for Tom Cable’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall (all as a pup), 4-0 in December and 7-3 after a SU win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) at Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS)
The Bengals will try to snap a two-game skid and clinch the AFC North crown when they tackle the lowly Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium.
Cincinnati, playing three days after the death of wideout Chris Henry, gave San Diego all it could handle before losing 27-24, giving up a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds. But the Bengals covered as a 6½-point road pup, snapping a four-game ATS skid (2-2 SU). Cincy’s defense rates fifth in yards allowed (300.5) and is tied for third in points allowed (17.4 ppg), helping compensate for a mediocre offense that’s netting just 20.6 ppg (17th).
Kansas City has dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 41-34 home loss to Cleveland as a one-point chalk. It was the Chiefs’ highest scoring output of the season, but they are still averaging just 17.1 ppg (26th), having been held to 16 points or less nine times. Plus, K.C.’s defense is giving up the second-most points in the NFL (27.4 ppg).
These teams met in the regular-season finale last year, also in Cincinnati, with the Bengals winning 16-6 as a three-point favorite. In fact, they’ve met each of the past four seasons, alternating SU and ATS wins, with the SU winner going 4-0 ATS. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
The underdog has covered in 13 of Cincy’s 14 games this year, and the Bengals come into this one on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-5 against losing teams and 7-20-1 as a favorite (0-4 as a home chalk), but they are on a 4-1 ATS upswing coming off a SU loss. The Chiefs are on a 9-2 ATS run as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, but they’re otherwise on a bevy of pointspread dives, including the aforementioned 0-4 overall, 0-5 in December, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after a non-cover and 4-9 following a SU loss.
Cincinnati is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 5-2 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 8-0 as a home favorite, 13-3 in December and 7-2-1 against losing teams, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, the over for Kansas City is on sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 7-3-2 with the Chiefs a pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Buffalo (5-9, 7-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (7-7, 9-5 ATS)
Two teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Falcons face the Bills in a non-conference contest at the Georgia Dome.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan hit tight end Tony Gonzalez with a short TD pass on fourth down to rally past the Jets 10-7 last week as a 5½-point road ‘dog, covering for the second straight week and ending what proved to be a season-killing 1-4 SU slide. The Falcons, who went 11-5 SU last year and reached the playoffs as a wild card, have numbers befitting tehir mediocre record, averaging 22.3 ppg (16th) and 332.8 ypg (18th), while allowing 22.3 ppg (20th) and 371.3 ypg (28th).
Buffalo lost to New England 17-10 Sunday at home to get a push as a seven-point home underdog. The Bills (3-1-1 ATS last five games) have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games. Buffalo is averaging a meager 16.1 ppg (28th), scoring less than that nine times this year, while averaging 271.5 ypg (30th).
In two meetings with Buffalo this decade, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS, including a 24-16 road win getting three points in September 2005.
The Falcons are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 4-1 as a Georgia Dome chalk and 4-0 giving 3½ to 10 points, though they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU win. The Bills sport a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 8-2 in roadies, 6-2 as a road pup and 4-1 following a SU loss.
The under for Atlanta is on surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in December and 4-1 at the dome, and Buffalo is on “under” rolls of 8-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-1 on the highway and 6-2 with the Bills a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Houston (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS), at Miami (7-7, 8-6 ATS)
The Texans travel to LandShark Stadium to take on the Dolphins in a battle of two teams clinging by their fingernails to stay in the AFC postseason picture.
Houston barely held off a dismal St. Louis squad 16-13 Sunday, falling far short as a 14-point road chalk. The Texans have followed up a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) with back-to-back wins to remain alive in the wild-card race. QB Matt Schaub (25 TD passes, 13 INTs) paces the No. 2 passing offense (291.4 ypg), and the Texans average 377.4 total ypg (seventh) and 23.4 ppg (11th). The defense is fair, ranking 12th in total yards allowed (322.7 ypg) while giving up 20.4 ppg (14th).
Miami’s 4-1 SU run to get into playoff contention ended with a 27-24 overtime loss at Tennessee last week, though it cashed as a 4½-point ‘dog. The Dolphins, on a 3-0 ATS uptick, sport the NFL’s fourth-best running attack (148 ypg) for an offense netting 22.6 ppg (14th), but their defense rates 18th in total yards allowed (341.4 ypg) and 24th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). Miami also has a minus-7 turnover margin (25th).
These teams have met each of the last three years and four times overall dating to 2003, with Houston going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Miami covered in the past two meetings, including last year’s 29-28 loss as a three-point road pup. The visitor is 3-1 ATS in those four contests, and the underdog has cashed in all four games.
The Texans are in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 2-5-1 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering rolls of 7-2 getting points, 6-1 as a road pup and 17-8 in December. The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 7-1 within the AFC, but they are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games at Land Shark and 7-24 ATS in their last 31 as a favorite.
Houston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 5-1 as a road pup, 7-1 in December and 9-2 after a SU win, and the under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven December games. The over for Miami is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 11-4 following a SU loss and 4-0 with the Dolphins favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Carolina (6-8, 7-7) at N.Y. Giants (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Giants, scrambling to keep their playoff hopes alive, take on the upset-minded Panthers at the Meadowlands.
New York, on the outside looking in for the postseason at the moment, hammered Washington 45-12 Monday night as a three-point road chalk and has alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games (2-4 ATS). The Giants have a disparate defense, allowing just 306.8 ypg (seventh) but also giving up 24.4 ppg (26th). Prior to shutting down the Redskins on Monday, New York had allowed at least 21 points in nine straight games, with four of those teams scoring 30 or more. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is averaging 382.7 ypg (fifth) and 27.6 ppg (sixth).
Carolina upended Minnesota 26-7 as a heavy nine-point home underdog Sunday night to cover for the third straight week. The victory ended a string of four games in which the Panthers scored 17 points or less, but they still average just 17.9 ppg (24th) and 325.3 ypg (20th), while the defense allows 20.6 ppg (16th.) and 323.1 ypg (13th).
New York has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 34-28 overtime victory as a 3½-point home chalk last December, a game that decided the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The SU winner is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes, and the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run.
Despite Monday’s rout, the Giants remain on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 2-7 overall, 1-5 laying points, 1-4 at home and 2-5 within the NFC, though they are also on pointspread upticks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in December, 19-7 after a SU win and 23-9 following a spread cover. The Panthers sport positive ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against NFC foes, 5-1 as a pup and 4-1 on the road, and they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 December games.
The over for New York is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in the NFC, 4-1 in December, 6-2-1 against losing teams and 5-2 at the Meadowlands. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 with the Panthers a road pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Tampa Bay (2-12, 5-9 ATS) at New Orleans (13-1, 8-6 ATS)
The Saints, looking to bounce back from their first loss of the year, take on the dismal division rival Buccaneers at the Superdome.
New Orleans’ rally came up short in a 24-17 Saturday night loss to Dallas as a 7½-point home favorite, ending the Saints’ chances at a perfect season while also giving them their third straight ATS setback. New Orleans, averaging 35.8 ppg prior to last week, failed to score at least 24 points for the first time all year. However, it still leads the NFL at 34.5 ppg and 419.6 ypg. The Saints lost the turnover battle 3-0 against the Cowboys, yet are still third in the league with a plus-13 margin.
Tampa Bay scored a dominating road upset last week for just its second win of the year, routing Seattle 24-7 catching 6½ points to end a five-game SU skid (2-3 ATS). Despite that scoring “outburst,” the Bucs are still averaging just 15.3 ppg and 282.5 ypg, rating 29th in the league in both categories, while giving up 25.9 ppg (29th) and 365.4 ypg (26th).
New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS surge in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 38-7 blowout as a 10½-point home chalk on Nov. 22, giving the SU winner a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six clashes. However, Tampa is 5-1 ATS on its last six trips to the dome, and the road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 matchups.
The Saints have struggled at the betting window lately, shouldering negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall (all as a chalk), 0-4 in December, 1-6 inside the conference and 1-4 in the NFC South. However, they’ve been an excellent bounce-back team, going 11-1 ATS in their last dozen following a SU loss, and they are on a 7-3 ATS run as a home chalk.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is on ATS purges of 5-11 overall, 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in December and 2-5 in division play, and the Bucs are just 2-16 SU (6-12 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to last season.
New Orleans has stayed under the total in four of its last five (all as a favorite), but it remains on “over” runs of 10-3 in December, 14-5-1 in the Big Easy and 19-7-1 in NFC action. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings. Conversely, the under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a pup), 4-1 in the NFC South and 9-3 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Jacksonville (7-7, 5-9 ATS) at New England (9-5, 6-7-1 ATS)
The Patriots aim to wrap up the AFC East and stay in contention for the No. 3 seed when they meet the Jaguars at Gillette Stadium.
New England topped Buffalo 17-10 to get a push as a seven-point road chalk Sunday, winning for the second straight week while ending a three-game ATS hiccup. The Patriots are still eighth in the league in scoring (26.1 ppg), but they’ve put up 21 points or less in four straight games, after scoring 25 or more in eight of their first 10 outings. New England is No. 2 in total offense (398.3 ypg), and the defense allows 314.9 ypg (10th) and just 17.4 ppg (tied for third).
Jacksonville is on an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid, though it still harbors the best playoff hopes among the six AFC teams tied at 7-7. In a Thursday night home shootout last week with unbeaten Indianapolis, the Jags lost 35-31 as a 3½-point ‘dog, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Jacksonville is averaging 341.6 ypg (15th) and netting just 19 ppg (21st).
New England has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 31-20 divisional playoff victory two seasons ago, though Jacksonville covered as a 13½-point road pup. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.
The Patriots are on ATS upswings of 34-16-1 laying 3½ to 10 points and 4-0 at home as a chalk of the same price. The Jaguars are on several pointspread skids, including 2-8 overall, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 in December, 3-8 after a SU loss, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 in the AFC.
New England is on “under” streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 in December, 5-0-1 laying points, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Similarly, Jacksonville is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 8-2 as a road pup and 6-2 in December, though the over for the Jags is on upturns of 5-1 after a SU loss and 13-5-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore (8-6 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (7-7, 4-10 ATS)
The Ravens make the trip to Heinz Field to meet the bitter rival Steelers, with both participants in last year’s AFC title game fighting to gain a spot in the AFC playoffs this time around.
Baltimore has posted two straight blowout home wins the past two weeks, albeit against Detroit and Chicago, respectively. On Sunday, the Ravens rolled 31-7 as a 10½-point favorite, following a 48-3 beatdown of the Lions laying 14 points. After five straight games of scoring 20 points or less, Baltimore has its offense back on track and is averaging 25 ppg for the year (ninth), while allowing just 16.1 ppg, second only to the Jets’ 15.8 ppg.
Pittsburgh outlasted Green Bay 37-36 as a 2½-point home chalk on a Ben Roethlisberger-to-Mike Wallace TD pass as time expired. It was a win the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers desperately needed after an 0-5 SU freefall, though they failed to cover for the third straight week. Roethlisberger threw for an outrageous career-best 503 yards, going 29 of 46 with three TDs and no INTs.
This matchup features two of the league’s better defenses, with Baltimore yielding 299.8 ypg (fourth) and Pittsburgh allowing 304.2 ypg (sixth). Four weeks ago, the Ravens edged the Steelers 20-17 in overtime, going off as a nine-point chalk due to Roethlisberger sitting out with concussion symptoms.
The Steelers have covered the last three in this rivalry, including a 23-14 home win giving six points in the AFC title game last year. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five meetings.
The Ravens are on spread-covering surges of 19-9 overall, 6-1 as a road pup of up to three points, 4-1 in December and 13-6 after a spread-cover, but they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC North games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams, but they are otherwise on ATS dives of 1-5 overall, 0-5 laying points, 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 3-13 giving three or less at Heinz, 1-4 in division play and 2-6 after a SU win.
The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC and 4-1 in the division, but the over is on an 8-2-1 tear with the Ravens a road ‘dog. Furthermore, the over for Pittsburgh is on a boatload of rolls, including 4-1 overall, 50-22-1 at home, 20-7 laying three points or less and 19-8 against AFC opposition. Finally, in this heated rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven clashes overall and five straight at Heinz Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
St. Louis (1-13, 7-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-5, 8-6 ATS)
The defending conference champion Cardinals, who have already clinched their second straight NFC West but who still have a shot at the No. 3 playoff seed, take on the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.
Arizona held off another dismal team last week, beating Detroit 31-24 but coming up way short as an overwhelming 14-point chalk in failing to cash for the second straight game. The Cardinals, who have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games, have 10 turnovers over their past two games (three last week) and are at a minus-8 margin for the season (26th). Still, they are 10th in the league in scoring at 24.1 ppg.
St. Louis gave Houston a scare Sunday, losing 16-13 as a hefty 14-point home underdog for its sixth consecutive SU loss (4-2 ATS). The Rams’ problem is an inability to score averaging a league-worst 11.4 ppg, and the effort against the Titans marked the eighth time they’ve been held to 13 points or less this season. The Rams are also allowing 26.9 ppg (30th).
Arizona has won six in a row against St. Louis (4-2 ATS), including a 21-13 road victory Nov. 22, though the Rams covered as a 9½-point pup to halt a 3-0 ATS run by the Cardinals in this rivalry. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the underdog is on a 9-3 ATS roll.
The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a chalk, but the ATS streaks turn upward from there, including 13-6 overall, 4-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-3 at home. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (all as a pup) and are on a pair of 4-1 ATS runs – in conference play and in December – but they are on a 1-23 SU freefall (11-13 ATS), and they carry negative ATS streaks of 7-19 in the NFC West and 7-16 against winning teams.
In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Arizona. In addition, the under for the Cards is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in division action and 6-2 after a SU win, and the under for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1-1 in the division and 5-2 on the road. That said, the over is 14-5 in Arizona’s last 19 at home, 15-4 in its last 19 in December and 38-17 in the Cardinals’ last 55 games against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
Detroit (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-8, 8-4-2 ATS)
The 49ers, who have fallen apart since getting off to a 3-1 start, take on the woeful Lions at Candlestick Park in a meeting of two teams playing out the string.
San Francisco has alternated SU wins and losses over the past seven weeks (3-3-1 ATS), falling 27-13 at Philadelphia last week as a seven-point pup. The Niners have beaten the defending NFC champion Cardinals twice this year, and their defense is allowing just 19.2 ppg (eighth). But their offense is 28th in total yards (286.6 ypg) and tied for 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg).
Detroit rallied from a 17-0 deficit to give Arizona a game Sunday, ultimately losing 31-24 but covering as a heavy 14-point home ‘dog. The Lions have dropped four in a row (2-2 ATS), and their defense continues to be porous, allowing 31.2 ppg and 396.1 ypg, both the worst marks in the league. The offense is netting just 16.6 ppg (27th) and 296.1 ypg (25th). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, Detroit is a meager 3-35 SU (12-25-1 ATS).
San Francisco is on a 6-0 SU tear in this rivalry (4-1-1 ATS), most recently rolling 31-13 at home as a five-point chalk in September 2008. The Niners are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Candlestick.
The 49ers sport positive pointspread streaks of 11-5-3 overall, 5-0-2 after a non-cover, 6-1-1 following a SU loss, 7-2-1 at the ‘Stick and 16-7 laying more than 10 points, though they’ve also gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight against losing teams. The Lions are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 starts catching more than 10 points, but they are on numerous ATS slides, including 2-6-1 overall, 1-5-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-19-1 after a spread-cover.
San Francisco is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-1 in December, 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in NFC contests and 5-2 at home, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall, with five of those contests played at Candlestick. Detroit, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 23-9 on the highway, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 11-3 in December, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO
Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (10-4, 9-5 ATS)
The streaking Eagles, who still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, gear up for a non-conference contest with the inconsistent Broncos at Lincoln Financial Field.
Philadelphia dropped San Francisco 27-13 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU victory (4-1 ATS). The Eagles, who can clinch the NFC East with a victory today, have scored 24 points or more in all five games, moving into the No. 2 slot in the NFL at 28.5 ppg for the year, behind only high-octane New Orleans (34.5 ppg). Philly forced four turnovers last week, an area that has been key all season, as the Eagles now hold a turnover margin of plus-17, one behind league-leading Green Bay.
Denver imploded against Oakland last week, giving up a last-minute TD in a 20-19 home loss as an overwhelming 14-point favorite to severely hamper its playoff prospects. The Broncos have had one of the better defenses in the league all year, allowing 294.4 ypg (third) and 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth), but their offense hasn’t taken advantage. Against Oakland, Denver (19.6 ppg) settled for four field goals, blowing a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line late in the game.
These teams have met just once this decade, with Denver plowing to a 49-21 rout as a four-point home chalk in October 2005.
The Eagles are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in December, 7-3 at home and 6-2 laying points at the Linc. On the flip side, the Broncos are on ATS purges of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 1-6 in December, 1-6 after a SU loss and 8-24 after a pointspread setback. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 17 straight Denver games.
The over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 with the Eagles a home chalk and 5-2 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on rolls of 5-0 in December, 4-1 on the road, 16-6-2 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 after a non-cover. However, the under for the Broncos is on a 6-1 stretch against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
N.Y. Jets (7-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (14-0, 10-4 ATS)
The Colts aim to continue their run toward a perfect season with a Lucas Oil Stadium contest against the Jets, who must win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.
Indianapolis edged Jacksonville 35-31 as a 3½-point road favorite in the Thursday contest last week, with the winning score coming on a 65-yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne. The Colts, who have cashed in five straight games, are fourth in the NFL in total offense (383.3 ypg) and fifth in scoring (28.1 ppg). Manning leads the league with 4,213 passing yards, and he’s tied with Drew Brees atop the TD passing list with 33 (15 INTs). Indy is also fifth in scoring defense (17.7 ppg).
New York hindered its bid to make the playoffs with a 10-7 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday as a 5½-point chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS surge. The Jets field the No. 1 total defense (262.8 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg), and they have the NFL’s top rushing attack (164.1 ypg). However, they are just 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg), and rookie QB Mark Sanchez has 20 INTs on the year, against just 12 TDs.
These teams last met in October 2006, with Indianapolis winning 31-28 on the road, and New York covering as a 7½-point pup. Indy is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Jets, the home team is on a 7-2-2 ATS roll, and the favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry.
The Colts have won 23 consecutive regular-season games, going 15-8 ATS in that stretch, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five December starts. Their current 5-0 ATS run has all come from the favorite’s role. The Jets are on a 7-3 ATS spurt as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 2-6 in December and 2-5 within the AFC.
In addition, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 16 games, dating to last December.
New York is on a bundle of “under” runs, including 4-0-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the highway, 3-0-1 as a pup, 3-0-1 against winning teams and 20-8-2 in December. But in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1).
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) at Washington (4-10, 7-7 ATS)
The Cowboys, who control their playoff destiny and still have a shot at the NFC East title, travel to FedEx Field for a division battle with the reeling Redskins.
Dallas dealt New Orleans its first loss of the year, posting a 24-17 road victory last Saturday as a 7½-point underdog for just its fifth SU win and third ATS win in its last 15 December games. The Cowboys sport the third-most-productive offense in the league, at 394.5 ypg, though they’ve generated just 22.9 ppg (12th) from those yards. Defensively, the Pokes are middle-of-the pack in allowing 329.9 ypg (15th), but they’re giving up just 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth).
Coach Jim Zorn almost assuredly sealed his fate as the soon-to-be-ex Washington coach in a humiliating 45-12 Monday night loss to the Giants as a three-point home pup. Zorn called for a fake field out of a wild formation at the end of the first half, leading to an INT, and the Redskins had their five-game ATS winning streak snapped. Washington is averaging 317.9 ypg (23rd) and just 17.6 ppg (25th).
Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD to sneak out a sloppy 7-6 home victory over Washington five weeks ago, falling far short as an 11-point chalk. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in the last nine clashes in this rivalry (5-1 ATS last six), and the underdog is on a 21-7 ATS spree. However, Dallas has gone 8-3 ATS on its last 11 trips to D.C., and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts against losing teams, but the ATS streaks head downward from there, including 3-12 in December, 4-9 on the road, 1-4 as a chalk and 0-4 as a road chalk. The Redskins have cashed in just three of their last 13 at FedEx, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as a pup.
The under for Dallas is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in the NFC, 4-1 with the Pokes favored, 7-3 in December and a lengthy 49-23-3 against losing teams. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. On the flip side, the Redskins are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 at home, 6-1 getting points, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the NFC East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
MUSIC CITY BOWL
(at Nashville, Tenn.)
Kentucky (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Clemson (8-5 SU and ATS)
For the second time in four years, Kentucky and Clemson will face off at LP Field in Nashville in an ACC-SEC postseason matchup.
The Wildcats, who finished tied for fourth in the SEC’s East Division, won five of seven (4-3 ATS) down the stretch to qualify for this bowl but lost a hard-fought 30-27 overtime game to Tennessee in the finale, falling short as a three-point home ‘dog. Despite the 30 points allowed to Tennessee, Kentucky’s defense stepped up in the final seven weeks, limiting the opposition to 14 points or less four times.
The Tigers won the ACC’s Atlantic Division but came up short in the conference title game, losing 39-34 to Georgia Tech as a one-point underdog. Clemson rattled off six straight wins (5-1 ATS), scoring 34 points or more in each victory, before dropping their regular-season finale at South Carolina (34-17 as a three-point road favorite) and losing the ACC title game to Georgia Tech. The Tigers, who failed to cover in their last three games, scored 21 points or less in three of their final four defeats.
In the 2006 Music City Bowl, Kentucky scored a 28-20 victory over Clemson as an 11½-point underdog. Going back to 1985, the Wildcats are 2-1 SU (3-0 ATS) against the Tigers.
Kentucky ran its bowl winning streak to three with a 25-19 upset of East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl in January, getting the outright win as a three-point underdog. The four-straight bowl appearances are a record for the Wildcats, who hadn’t won a postseason game since 1984 when they upset Clemson in 2006.
The Tigers have lost three straight bowl games, including last year’s 26-21 setback to Nebraska in the Gator Bowl as a 2½-point favorite. Clemson’s last postseason victory was the 2005 Champ Sports Bowl, a 19-10 triumph over Colorado.
The Wildcats have struggled against the run this season, allowing 183.1 yards per game to rank 100th out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, and they’ll have their hands full trying to stop all-purpose back C.J. Spiller, who ranked fourth nationally in all-purpose yards with 194 per game and finished with a school-record 20 touchdowns. Spiller was Clemson’s first ACC Player of the Year since 1987 and he finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting.
Kentucky comes into this game on ATS runs of 3-0-1 on neutral fields, 9-2-1 in non-conference games and 4-1 against teams with winning records. Meanwhile, Clemson is on ATS slides of 1-6 against SEC teams, 0-5 in December games, 0-5 in neutral-site contests, 3-9 in non-conference games and 4-12 when coming off a non-cover.
The Wildcats are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 as an underdog, 16-5 against teams with winning records and 4-1 on natural grass. The Tigers have topped the total in five straight overall and four straight as a favorite, but Clemson is also on “under” stretches of 5-0 in bowl games, 7-3 against the SEC, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-3 after a non-cover. Finally, then these two met in the 2006 Music City Bowl, the “under” rolled in with a 10-point cushion.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KENTUCKY
Stephen Nover
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS -14
Having had an extra three days to suffer through an embarrassing home loss to Dallas, I see the Saints getting their offense back untracked at home against a terrible Tampa Bay team.
Just five weeks ago, the Saints followed a flat effort against St. Louis to beat Tampa Bay on the road, 38-7. Drew Brees had an easy time throwing three touchdown passes.
New Orleans coach Sean Payton wants his offense back clicking. He has the perfect patsy to accomplish that. The Buccaneers rank 28th in scoring defense giving up 25.9 points per game and are 25th in total defense giving up 362.8 yards per game.
The Saints are No. 1 in scoring (averaging 34.5 points per game) and first in total offense (averaging 419.7 yards per game). They have the best point differential in the NFL at plus 185 points. Their offense should be even better with Reggie Bush expected to play.
New Orleans does have some injuries in its secondary. The Cowboys were able to exploit that. The Buccaneers don't have the quarterback or healthy weapons to take advantage like Dallas did.
Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman has been picked off nine times in the last three weeks. The Tampa Bay coaching staff is scaling down the offense for Freeman and is not going to let him take downfield shots anymore despite his big arm.
The Buccaneers have covered just five of their last 16 games. They are not well-coached and have injury concerns to a number of their key offensive personnel. Their best wide receiver, Antonio Bryant, is dealing with a groin injury. Running back Derrick Ward has a knee injury and center Jeff Faine has an elbow injury.
The spread is big. But the Saints have the offense and motivation to cover this number at home. The Buccaneers are off an upset road win against the sagging Seahawks. This is their fourth road game in five weeks.
I say the Buccaneers mail this one in. The Saints are a bad team to do that against because they easily can put up 35-to-45 points against a bad defense, especially on carpet at home.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Jeff Benton
Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS -14
Hope you enjoyed Saturday's huge 8♦ free-play winner on USC over Boston College in the Emerald Bowl. Now it's back to the NFL -- FYI, I’m on a 21-10 roll with NFL free plays -- and I’ll lay the big points with the Saints at home against the Buccaneers.
Now that the pressure of an undefeated season is no longer hanging over the heads of the New Orleans players, I expect them to come out and play very loose today and completely destroy the god-awful Buccaneers in much the same way they destroyed them in Tampa Bay six weeks ago (that was a 38-7 Saints victory).
Although the Saints would never admit it, that loss to Dallas really was a blessing in disguise for Sean Payton’s team, because it allows them to get refocused on the big prize, which is the Super Bowl. And New Orleans absolutely still has something to play for, as it has yet to clinch the NFC’s #1 seed, which comes with home-field advantage. The Saints still need one more win to accomplish that all-important goal, so you know Drew Brees and the #1 starters on both sides of the ball will play a lot today (if not the entire way).
As for the Bucs, don’t be fooled by that 24-7 upset victory at Seattle last week – just the team’s second win this season and second win in its last 18 regular-season contests. This is still the same Tampa Bay squad that lost 26-3 at home to the Jets two weeks ago, still the same team that has lost all four of its NFC South games this year (1-3 ATS), still the same team that’s lost by double digits seven times this year, and still the same team that has covered a spread in consecutive games just twice in its last 24 contests, going 8-16 ATS during this stretch.
What’s more, Tampa Bay is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven divisional games, 1-5 ATS in its last six when coming off a spread-cover and 1-4 ATS in its last five in December. On the flip side, while the Saints have failed to cover in six of their last eight overall, they’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite and an astounding 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games when coming off a straight-up defeat.
New Orleans bounced back in a big way today and gets a confidence-rebuilding blowout victory in what will be its final meaningful game between now and the second round of the playoffs in mid-January.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS
Karl Garrett
Dallas at WASHINGTON +6'
Dallas has been off since their impressive step-up win at New Orleans last Saturday night, while Washington just showed the nation how bad a team can play in their Monday home debacle against the Giants.
Can Dallas win away from home in December again?
Probably.
Can Washington save face after embarrassing themselves earlier this week in prime time?
Well, I would expect a better effort from the 'Skins in this one, as they always seem to play Dallas tough.
Washington just battled Dallas to a 7-6 final on November 22nd in Big "D", as the Reskins made it 7 covers in the last 9 series games.
Prior to their Monday night massacre, the Redskins had covered 5 in a row - including that first meeting with Dallas.
I am going with the Redskins to once again be a sticky out for the Pokes.
Take the points.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Brian Graves
Kentucky vs. Clemson
Pick: Kentucky +6.5
The Wildcats continue to see bowls with Rich Brooks at the helm and they have played a lot of solid games especially down the stretch with a win at Georgia and an OT loss against Tennessee. Clemson has a habit of keeping teams in the game all the way and I like the Wildcat defense to slow down the Tiger running game. Special Teams could be the difference here as both teams have explosive kick return games but Kentucky definitely has the edge in the kicking game. This line is too high to lay in what I believe will be a final possession game that could go either way!