Jimmy Moore
Buffalo @ Atlanta
Pick: Buffalo +9
The Falcons are really banged up on offense and even if their QB Ryan does play he has looked much more human this season than last year. Buffalo has nothing to play for which in many cases can be an advantage for a team. Look for the Bills to let it all hang out and make this a tight game.
Jimmy Thompson
Buffalo vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta -8.5
The Falcons who have struggled much of the year defensively and have really been hurt the past few weeks by injuries to Ryan and Turner get their chance to face a team that is beat up. Brian Brohm is the likely starter for the Bills today and that could mean good things for the Falcons defense. Any QB starting his first NFL game would be lucky to get away without a couple of turnovers and we don't expect Brohm to change those numbers. Matt Ryan will make a couple of big plays and the Falcons will set him up for a couple of easy scores as Atlanta moves above .500 with a 31-6 win!
MTi Sports Newsletter
5-Star – Tampa Bay +14’ over NEW ORLEANS — The Saints have always had trouble when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. They were 0-11 ATS in this situation coming into this season and now, after failing to cover at home vs Carolina and Atlanta, they are 0-13 ATS when hosting a divisional opponent that has a worse record. This situation is easilty accessed with the Sports Data Query Language (SDQL) with:
team=Saints and H and DIV and WP>o:WP and 200012246 and p and NB and 20020929<=date
Note that this trend was active last week when the Panthers were a big dog against the Vikings. That game, of course, stayed under the total.
Lastly, for the Panthers, we expect a strong defensive effort because of their large time of possession last week. Carolina is 0-7 OU (-10.9 ppg) as a dog the week after they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average as a TD+ dog.
Turning our attention to the Giants, we recall that they are a TD favorite over a non-divisional opponent after facing divisional op- ponents in each of the previous three weeks. The Giants’ offense has been really clicking, but this is an UNDER situation for the league. Teams that are not undefeated on the season are a combined 0-17 OU as a 7+ point home favorite over a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks, as long as they had at 35+ first downs combined in those two games vs divisional foes. Let’s take these two UNDER.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY GIANTS 20 Carolina 17
CKO
11 KENTUCKY over Clemson
KENTUCKY 30 - Clemson 24
SEC scouts report that UK QB Hartline is looking sharp in early practices after being sidelined with a knee injury Oct. 10,allowing crafty o.c. Joker Phillips to re-install vertical plays absent down the stretch. And with mobile frosh QB Morgan gaining confidence & multi-skilled Randall Cobb running the “Wild Cobb” formation, sagging Clemson defense (556 YR allowed last 2 games) has a difficult task preparing for the varied Wildcat arsenal. UK’s LB Micah Johnson (100 tackles) will key on star Clemson RB Spiller, while projected NFL 1st-rounder CB Lindley shadows Tiger WR Ford. Brooks’ squad is seeking 4th straight bowl win and will take 16,000+ fans to Nashville
10 *MIAMI over Houston Late Score Forecast: *MIAMI 30 - Houston 17
Both teams 7-7 and still alive in the wild AFC wildcard picture. But Miami enjoys superior balance with its power- oriented rush attack. And young QB Chad Henne “arriving” fast (17 straight completions two weeks ago at Jacksonville; 349 YP, 3 TDs last week at Tennessee). Since their slow 0-3 start to the season, Miami is 8-3 vs. the spread. Injuries in the OL and RB fumbles have handicapped the Texan ground game (29th prior to last week).
10 DENVER over *Philadelphia Late Score Forecast: DENVER 26 - *Philadelphia 23
Broncos got caught looking past Oakland last week, and now they need to dial up the intensity for this visit to Philly— with former Eagle Pro Bowler Brian Dawkins in tow. A 13-year member of Philadelphia, Dawkins’ knowledge should help more than just a little bit in preparations. And Denver’s speed-oriented defense seems a good match to contain Philly’s big plays. Bronco QB Kyle Orton has connected for 10 TDs vs. only 2 ints. on the road TY
NINE-RATED GAMES:
GREEN BAY (-14 ) vs. Seattle——G.B.’s defense is embarrassed after last week’s 537-yard allowance in Pittsburgh; poor-traveling Seahawks only one cover on the road TY.
TOTALS: UNDER (41½) in the N.Y. Jets-Indianapolis Game——Jets’ defense & ground attack will help “shrink” the game; Indy now 14-0 and will not yield points easily in final home game...
PLAYBOOK
3* BEST BET
Kentucky over Clemson by 3
Okay, after we’ve just fi nished extolling the postseason virtues of the
ACC, it’s time to sock ‘em in the gut. And what better representative to
attack than the notoriously underachieving Clemson Tigers? Clemmie
fi nally won its fi rst berth in the conference championship game since
the league was realigned in 2005 and, of course, they lost to Georgia
Tech. In their last 10 bowl appearances, the Tigers have managed just
three wins and only one of those came against a quality opponent,
Tennessee. Now, after blowing its shot at this year’s Orange Bowl,
Clemson must drag itself back to gloomy Nashville for a ‘rematch’
with Kentucky, the same team that whipped them 28-20 as a 10-
point underdog in the 2005 Music City Bowl. While the cats from
upstate South Carolina have had their share of late-season woes, the
bluegrass cats from Lexington are gunning for their fourth straight
bowl victory. Kentucky’s expectations increased recently when QB
Mike Hartline returned to practice for the fi rst time since injuring his
left knee on October 10. Without Hartline, UK’s passing game had
gone south: replacement Morgan Newton threw for just 608 yards
in seven starts and frustrated head coach Rich Brooks implemented
the ‘Wild-Cobb’ formation where WR Randall Cobb lined up as
a RB to take the snap from center. And even though the trickery
was good enough for an average of 6.4 yards per carry, Brooks will
certainly look forward to Cobb stretching the Clemson defense from
his natural wideout spot (37 catches for 427 yards) if Hartline can go
at QB. Outstanding Tiger RB/KR C.J. Spiller will be Kentucky’s main
concern: not only does the ACC’s all-time all-purpose yardage leader
break big plays in both the running and passing game, he also ranks
fourth in the country in kickoff returns with a hefty 34 yard average.
Our database came up with slim pickings on this matchup but the
advantage lies with the Wildcats. SEC bowl dogs off a loss of 15 or
less points are 20-5 ATS and HC Brooks is 3-0 SU as a bowler with UK
(two wins SU as a dog). Meanwhile, bowl favorites off back-to-back
losses, including a Conference Championship loss, are just 1-3 SU
and 0-4 ATS. Kentucky also owns a major edge with the familiarity
of the surroundings since this will be its third trip to the Music City
Bowl in four years. And most important, there’s always a chance that
UK superfan Ashley Judd will show up for a little face time on the
Jumbotron. Regardless, we honestly expect Dabo Swinney’s troops
to show up fl at as a pancake, not what you want to see on the menu
when laying a touchdown. This cat fi ght goes to the blue bloods.
3* BEST BET
Buffalo over ATLANTA by 3
Thanks to the return of QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner, the Falcons stayed alive with a dramatic come-from-behind win over the Jets in New York last week. Today they change roles from 6-point dogs to 8-point favorites in another got-to-have game and we’re right there to fade them. For openers, the Dirty Birds have been a mess ‘In The Stats,’ going 2-8 ITS their last 10 games – with the two stat wins by one and 20 yards. They are also riding a 0-11 ATS streak as favorites of eight or more points in games off a SU and ATS win. In addition, Atlanta checks in with a 2-15 ATS mark off an upset win when they own a win percentage of .400 or greater and are facing a non-division opponent off a loss. The Bills take the field having just held the Patriots to a season-low 224 yards last week and have not allowed 20 points in any contest since interim coach Perry Fewell assumed the reins five games ago. FYI: the Falcons are 2-25 ATS as favorites of five or more points in games in which they score less than 24 points. Look for another 7-7 ‘must-win’ favorite to eat the bullet when Buffie improves to 16-3 ATS in post-Pats performances. Bang... you’re dead.
4* BEST BET
Jacksonville over NEW ENGLAND by 4
The Pats eked out a 7-point win and cover against the Bills last week. The good news is that they have now surrendered 10 points in each of their last two games and they close out the campaign against a pair of teams currently resting on the 7-7 perch. Holding a two-game lead atop the AFC East Division, New England can now focus on the playoffs. The Jaguars suffered a bitter loss last Thursday to the Colts and are now swimming in shark-infested waters with seven other blood-seeking playoff hopefuls. That’s a good thing as 7-7 dogs are 24-10-2 ATS off a win or loss of seven or less points. Jacksonville is also 14-7 SU and 17-4 ATS on the road with revenge (lost here in 2007 playoffs), including 9-0 ATS the last nine. Oh yeah... that deal about the Pats allowing 10 or less points. It works against them here as New England is just 1-7-1 ATS in Foxborough after surrendering 10 or less points. We’re all jacked up about the Jags’ prospects today.
5* BEST BET
Baltimore over PITTSBURGH by 11
The Steelers are a miracle play away from arriving into the fray on a 6-game losing skid. They are also riding a 5-game spread- losing skein as favorites. And to make matters worse, they find themselves favored at 7-7 on the season against a division rival. Not a good thing, according to our powerful database, as these teams are 8-28-2 ATS, including 1-11-1 ATS if they allowed 27 or more points in their last game. Just as bad, defending Super Bowl champions playing at home with a .500 record are 1-11 ATS since 1996. Invading the Ketchup Bottle this week are the Ravens, off back-to-back wins in which they outscored those opponents to the tune of 79-10, managing to hold both foes to 2nd-low yardage marks. Baltimore’s 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS mark under John Harbaugh in games off a win against opponents off a spread loss clinches it. Back the better team, playing the better ball, as the skid marks continue.
NFL Totals BEST BET:
3* Giants OVER
4* Bengals UNDER
5* Colts UNDER
POINTWISE
This contest is a rematch of sorts, as just 3 yrs ago, the Wildcats of Kentucky (+10) prevailed over the Tigers of Clemson, in this very same bowl, 28-20. For the 'Cats, this marks a school-record 4th straight bowl campaign, with 3 trips to this particular bowl included. As a matter of fact, this is UK's 4th Music City Bowl game, losing to Syracuse, 20-13, in '99. Lately, however, things have certainly gone their way, with 3 straight bowl wins. A nice turnaround for Rich Brooks, whose first 3 seasons at Lexington resulted in a combined 8-26 mark. This season, they are led by the all-purpose brilliance of Cobb, who plays QB, RB (6.4 ypr), WR (11.4 ypc), & punt returner (13.5 ypr). And RB Locke not only is the 'Cats leading rusher, but is 2nd in the SEC in all-purpose yardage. QB is a problem, as Hartline (59%) is questionable, as of this writing (ankle). But note the fact that this year, Kentucky (+131⁄2, +91⁄2) won at Auburn for the 1st time since '61, & at Georgia for the 1st time since '77, with only mighty Florida & Alabama taking the 'Cats by more than a TD. The Tigers welcomed new coach Dabo Swinney this season, & haven't missed a beat, as far as their continuance of bowl years are concerned, with this their 10th in the last 11 campaigns. Led by the irrepressible Spiller (ACC player of the year), Clemson recovered nicely from a 2-3 start, with a 6-game winning burst, in which they averaged 40.7 ppg, while reaching the 15th spot in the polls. He has set or tied 31 school records (7,416 all-purpose yds, 50 TDs, & an NCAA record of 7 KO returns, during his career). But 2 straight losses, including a late setback in the ACC title game, & Tigers haven't covered a bowl game since '03. 'Cats!
PROPHECY: Clemson 26 - KENTUCKY 24 RATING: 3
NFL Key Releases:
GREEN BAY over Seattle RATING: 3
SAN FRANCISCO over Detroit RATING: 4
BUFFALO over Atlanta RATING: 4
PHILADELPHIA over Denver RATING: 5
BALTIMORE over Pittsburgh RATING: 5
GREEN BAY 34 - Seattle 10 - (1:00) -- Five-game Pack run ended on final play at
Pitt, but still 2 up in Wild Card run, & this should clinch that spot. Are in a unique '08 Super Bowl sandwich here (Steelers/Cards), going down to Pitt on final play (19-yd pass). But note Rodgers another super game: 383 yds (3/0). He is now at 3,962 PYs & 28/7 for the year. The Seahawks have hit bottom with a 58-14 pt deficit the past 2 weeks, with Hasselbeck tossing 4 INTs in their 24-7 home loss to the 2-12 Bucs. Seattle is 6-19 ATS as a non-division RD, losing its last 5 such affairs by 25, 17, 21, 26, & 27 pts. Despite the 2-TD spot.
SAN FRANCISCO 30 - Detroit 10 - (4:05) -- Niners are now eliminated from post season play, as they succumbed to the TO bug (4 in 1st half - 3 Smith INTs) at Philly. But are still a steady play, just 22 pts from a 19-2 ATS run. In their last 3 HGs, they've allowed only 6, 3, & 9 pts, so can't expect the Lions to do much. Remember, the Lions lost their last RG, 48-3, while allowing 308 RYs, so Gore could have a field day. Detroit is minus 711⁄2 pts ATS in its last 11 games, & is 0-7 ATS vs the NFC West. Improved Niners aren't about to fold their tent yet.
ATLANTA 20- Buffalo 17 - (1:00) -- Falcons are out of it, despite win over Jets, in final 1:38, managing just 12 FDs,& 238 yds. Prevailed, thanks to recording 3 INTs vs Sanchez, & Jets botching 3 FGs, from inside the 40. Ouch! Bills got the push vs the Pats, with a TD in the final 3:02. A 28-yd drive. Note being called for 104 penalty yds in the first half. Buffalo at just 12.5 ppg in 11 of its last 12 outings, but also a solid 15-3 ATS off NewEngland, while the Falcs are 13-25 ATS off a win of 3 pts or less. And the visitor is 16-5 ATS in Buffalo tilts.
PHILADELPHIA 31 - Denver 17 - (4:15) -- Brian Dawkins returns to Philly. That's the main sidebar on this one. Eagles still a game up on the Cowboys, while the Broncos are a game up on 6 squads for a playoff spot (tied with Ravens), after losing to Oakland in the final 0:35, while absorbing a 241-80 RY deficit. They've come from 245 RYs, to 95, to 80. Eagles continue fine play: 5 straight wins, & have averaged 31.6 ppg in their last 12 HGs. Denver 7-16 ATS on Dec road, while Eagles are 8-1 ATS as Dec hosts vs a winning opponent off a SU defeat.
Baltimore 22 - PITTSBURGH 20 - (1:00) -- Five-game Steeler slide is history, but by the skin of their teeth (19-yd Ben TD toss with 0:00 left). Altho he was sacked 5 times, Roethlisberger threw for a career-high 503 yds in that escape. So yet another team at 7-7, with Baltimore a game up. Ravens a game back of Cincy, with a 79-10 pt edge in their last 2 games, but those were host affairs vs the lowly Lions & Bears..oh, my. Only TD allowed in those wipeouts: a punt return. Flacco: 4 TD passes LW, & Rice now at 1,128 RYs. Never much left on the field, when they meet. Steeler revenger, but are 4-17 ATS HFs of <4 pts.
The Max
Texans (+3, -120) over @Dolphins Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Houston won their second consecutive game last week after dropping their previous four by a total of 19 points. The Texans are still fighting for a Wild Card spot, and that possibility makes this game a must if they want to be alive heading into their season finale at home against the Patriots in two weeks. If you just look at the 16-13 final score in Houston’s win at St. Louis last week, you may be unimpressed. But the Texans absolutely dominated that game, but it just didn’t show up on the scoreboard. Houston out-yarded the Rams 419-237 while winning first downs 22-15. Quarterback Matt Schaub had another excellent passing game as he threw for 367 yards (threw for 365 the previous week) on a whopping 9.2 yards per pass attempt while completing 70% (28-40) of his passes. Schaub and the Texans’ passing game are in great form right now, and it should continue this week in Miami.
The Dolphins will have a tough time getting off the mat for this game. Last week at Tennessee, they trailed 24-6 in the third quarter before making a furious rally to tie the game and take it into overtime. Their momentum continued as they won the coin toss and got the ball first, but quarterback Chad Henne threw an interception which set-up the Titans on a short field to kick the winning field goal. The Dolphins lost 27-24 in the extra session, and that loss all but knocked them out of the playoff picture unless a lot of breaks go their way. Off that heartbreaking loss, it’s hard to imagine Miami getting a good week of practice and preparation in as the reality of what last week’s loss means sinks in.
Not only do the Texans have a big situational edge, but they also have a nice match-up edge working in their favor. Matt Schaub and the passing game should have a field day throwing the ball on the weak Miami secondary. The Dolphins have only faced five strong passing attacks this season, and the results haven’t been pretty. They allowed 352 and 323 passing yards to the Patriots in their two games, 276 to the Saints, 286 to the Chargers, and 295 to the Colts. Miami went just 1-4 straight-up and 2-3 against the spread in those games with both covers coming against the Patriots in a 10-point loss and a 1-point win. Aside from their 28-point win over the Bills, the Dolphins other three home wins have come by just 4, 2, and 1 point. The underdog is on a perfect 8-0 spread run in Miami’s last eight games, and with the situation and match-up favoring Houston, we expect the dog to extend that run to nine games. Texans by 4.
Texans @Dolphins over 45 Selection and analysis by Erik Scheponik
Barring a tropical rainstorm, this appears to be one of few games where weather won't come into play. Both teams desperate and still in race, and although that should lead to playoff intensity, I think it will lead to their superior units (offenses) not being stopped when it counts. Matchups look good Houston 7.8 yards per pass vs. Miami 23rd ranked pass D (236th in yards per pass at 7.6), and the Dolphins are especially susceptible to big plays down the field. Miami’s defense is frequently victimized by long plays, which is the specialty of Texans WR Andre Johnson and WR Steve Slaton. No surprise if we see a couple of 70ish-yard TD’s, which is Houston's specialty.
Dolphins can get to the QB, but only 7 teams have allowed fewer sacks than Texans. Dolphins 4th ranked rushing attack against Houston defense which allows 4.4 ypr. Houston defense has been made protected last couple weeks by weak opposing offenses that bogged down in red zone or played conservative with lead (Jax). Dolphins averaging 29 ppg and 385 yards at home this season. You don’t think of the Dolphins as an over team but as their offense suggests, they’re an offensive minded team at home. At home they’ve gone 5-1 to the over with the 5 overs careening over the total by 79 points. The Texans are an under team on the road, but they’ve had 3 road unders by 2 points or less, so most of their games have been right in the expected scoring range. They should be brought along into a high scoring game by the Dolphins, and they won’t exactly be kicking and screaming. Don’t be surprised if this game has a lot of fireworks. Go over the total.
Jaguars @Patriots under 431⁄2 Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
This total seems pretty high considering the way this game is likely to be played. The Patriots are doing everything they can to protect the banged up Tom Brady (shoulder, finger, and most importantly), ribs. The Pats just need to win one of their last two provided neither the Jets nor Dolphins sweep. The goal is to keep Brady healthy and give him a couple of weeks before they host a game in the Wild Card round. Brady threw only 23 passes on Sunday. His last three games have seen him attempt his lowest, second lowest, and tied for third lowest number of passes on the season. Fred Taylor was supposedly very close to being back last Sunday and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him play in this one. Laurence Maroney is running pretty well and has Belichick’s confidence right now. They meet once a week to watch film of every play Maroney is involved in and Belichick appears to appreciate the RB’s willingness to improve. Hard to see this being anything other than run, run, run some more.
You know the M.O. of Jack del Rio, and it isn’t “air it out”. Sure, they got caught up in a shootout on Thursday night, but in 6 of their previous 7 games they threw the ball 30 times or less. The Jags prefer to run the ball. And if you had Maurice Jones-Drew, you probably would too. All this running by both teams will keep the clock moving, limiting the number of plays, which is critical when attempting to keep a game under the total.
These teams have both played a lot of unders as well. Prior to their shootout with the Colts, the Jags had seen 6 of their previous 7 games go under the total, including 4 in a row. In those 4 games, only once did either team score more than 18 points, and 3 of the 4 games saw 33, 23, 41, and 24 points scored. The Jags are an under team right now. With their commitment to keeping Brady on the field and off the injury list, New England has played 5 unders in a row, and of the overs, one was by 11⁄2 points and another by 3 points. For all the talk of their defensive weaknesses, this isn’t your 2007 or even 2008 New England Patriots. Surprisingly, all bets are off if it comes up snowy in Foxborough on Sunday. The Patriots play in bizarrely high scoring home games in the snow, and against Tennessee this year and against Arizona last year they eclipsed the full game total all by themselves in the first half of play. Clearly Belichick trusts his offense in those kind of conditions and realizes that the slippery conditions harm the footing of the defensive backs more than anyone else. But assuming good weather we’ll look for this game to be lower scoring than folks expect. Let’s go under the total here.
Redskins (+7) over Cowboys Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The whole world watched the Cowboys roll on Saturday night in New Orleans. It was an impressive rampage over the previously unbeaten Saints. The whole world then watched the Redskins get rolled by the Giants on Saturday night. It was truly a putrid performance in our nation’s capital. And if Jim Zorn had even a sliver of a chance of being retained by Bruce Allen, which he probably didn’t, that’s gone now. After the game Albert Haynesworth threw Zorn under the bus, saying that the players weren’t that bad, and they needed “new direction”.
But with the entire roster being evaluated by the brass, we’re willing to wipe the slate clean and forgive Monday night’s game. Before Monday night there had actually been a lot of positives with the Redskins, as the players and coaches had shown a lot of professionalism in the wake of a trying situation. The ‘skins had covered their last five games before the MNF debacle, and in 10 of their previous 13 games had either outgained their opponent or had been within 8 yards of their opponent when the yardage totals were tallied. We’ll look for that competitiveness and competence to return in this one. And there’s really a fine line to being competent and awful in the NFL. It was third down conversions on Monday night. The Giants converted at least their first 7 on their way to a sterling 11-15 in third down efficiency. A lot of themwere3rd and5or3rd and6thatmadeitbyayardor so. Like most games, it was a play here and a play there away from being a solid, but non-humiliating loss.
I simply don’t trust the Cowboys in prosperity. They took advantage of a lot of weaknesses that the Saints had shown heading into Saturday night’s game (lucky wins at Washington and Atlanta) and they played what was clearly their game of the year. This is a team that time and time again has not been able to string strong performances together. In fact, since their opening day win in Tampa they’ve been a road favorite 4 times. They’ve lost all 4 of those games outright. I don’t trust Wade Phillips, Tony Romo, and this defense to put together consistently good performances and will look to take a TD against a team that had failed to cover 4 of 5 heading into the New Orleans win.
The Redskins are 0-4 straight up and against the spread to the Giants the past two years. Looking back, a case could be made that they simply match up poorly to the New Yorkers. But they’ve done OK against Dallas, losing by no more than 5 in the last 6 games in the series. This was a very, very competitive game last month in Arlington, and this line figured to be 41⁄2 or so before last weekend. Now we get nearly an extra FG as everyone overreacts to a good week by Dallas and a bad week by Washington. With every square in the world looking to lay the lumber on Dallas, we’ll look for these clubs to revert to the norm in a competitive game. Cowboys by only 1.
49ers (-12) over Lions Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Just because the Niners were knocked out of NFC playoff contention in their 27-13 loss to Philadelphia last week doesn't mean they will start coasting. Coasting when Mike Singletary is your coach is just not an option. Only three times in Mad Mike's tenure of 23 games has Frisco lost a game by more than 7 points. Fear of Mike's wrath will keeps players motivated and they will want to atone for a 2 TD defeat. Frisco covered the next game after both of their first two 8+ point losses under Singletary. And Frisco still has something to play for. With 6 wins and a winnable matchup against the Rams next week a 0.500 final record is a very realistic possibility.
This is a rare selection where the bulk of the tech material is on the other side. The total number of systems favoring Detroit is five, while the Niners have just three tabbing them. My stat model however likes Frisco by 17, and there is ample reason to believe the number should be higher. We won't learn the details of Detroit's QB rotation until later in the week, but it’s highly unlikely that Matt Stafford will play. Right now it looks like Daunte Culpepper will get the start with a short leash. Drew Stanton started the 2nd half Sunday against Arizona and it wouldn't surprise me to see that happen again.
The Lions are 0-10 when Culpepper starts, and have scored just 3 points this season when he is on the field. Even if Stanton were as good as Stafford the drop in performance to Culpepper's level for just two quarters is probably worth a point. To add injury to insult, CB Philip Buchanon may miss the game with a sprained left shoulder. As bad as the Lions' corners are, they have played respectably in a couple of games in recent weeks and Buchanon is the main reason. My stat model only covers run and pass numbers, not special teams. Detroit might have the worst special teams in the league. Last Sunday's miscues included a shanked punt, yet another missed field goal, one fumbled punt return and another one mishandled. The punt return problems are indicative of Detroit's personnel problems. WR Dennis Northcutt was responsible for the fumble. He is dealing with a groin injury that limits for the fumble. He is dealing with a groin injury that limits his lateral mobility. You'd think a guy with that ailment wouldn't be fielding kicks of any kind, but the coaches don't trust anybody else to catch them. Except for Philip Buchanon. That is how he injured his shoulder. Add injury and special teams adjustments to the stat model and I can make an argument for SF -20. Even with a Lions edge in the tech material the home side is the way to play.San Francisco by 18.
Sports Memo
TIM TRUSHEL
Best Bet: Kentucky +7
Kentucky has never been one for impressive numbers or flashy play. They find ways to
not only be competitive but beat teams that are statistically superior. Skim through
the offensive and defensive numbers of this matchup and you won’t find many aspects
that don’t favor Clemson. But with the exception of games against Florida and
Alabama, Kentucky has been in every game this season. They lost to Tennessee in
overtime, won at Auburn and Georgia and lost at South Carolina by two. The only
“bad loss” was by seven points at home to Mississippi State with a rookie quarterback
making his first SEC start. Clemson’s season was typical with big wins and big disappointments.
And while they hold various edges on both sides of the ball, they hardly
seem worthy of laying a touchdown on a neutral field against an SEC team. Reports
indicate that the Tigers, who were one defensive stop from going to the BCS, have
had major issues selling their allotment of tickets. Kentucky on the other hand sold
out its share within one day. Early bowl games are all about motivation and UK has
a strong history (three straight wins) of coming up with big efforts. Take the points
TEDDY COVERS
Best Bet: Kentucky +7
Clemson put up big numbers all year, led by ACC Player of the Year CJ Spiller, who
ranked fourth in the NCAA in all purpose yards. But the Tigers came up short
down the stretch, as their six-game winning streak was snapped by South Carolina
in the regular season finale. Dabo Sweeney’s squad then lost to Georgia Tech
in the ACC Championship Game, relegating the Tigers to another Music City
Bowl appearance instead of a coveted BCS berth. Clemson has lost bowl games
as a favorite in each of the last three years, including a loss to this same Kentucky
team, in this same bowl, back in 2006. And the Music City Bowl has been a
house of horrors for favorites; just 2-9 ATS over the last 11 years. Kentucky’s stats
weren’t particularly impressive -- tenth out of 12 SEC teams in both total offense
and total defense. But head coach Rich Brooks has never been about compiling
stats -- he’s about winning games, often with inferior talent. Kentucky has
won its last three bowls including twice as an underdog. Take the points with the
more motivated team who is more than capable of winning this game outright
BRENT CROW
Best Bet: Kansas City +13.5
This looks like the perfect time to go against the Bengals, and the place
or opponent matters little in my opinion. Cincinnati had a great effort
last week in San Diego, falling three points short of a win after rallying
to tie the game with a minute left. Of course the Bengals are also dealing
with the death of Chris Henry, which created a very emotional week
and game last week. I would imagine the entire team will go to a funeral
service on Monday or Tuesday, so this week will be completely different
emotionally. Last week they also had a marquee opponent, with the other
AFC bye at stake. This week, they face the lowly Chiefs, who aren’t going
anywhere and pose no real threat to the Bengals. Cincinnati has yet
to cover as a favorite this year, and has played a ton of close, low scoring
games. They beat Cleveland 16-7 and Detroit 23-13 in their last two home
games as double-digit chalk. Look for the Chiefs to get the job done this
week as the Bengals come out flat and struggle for the straight up victory
DONNIE BLACK
Best Bet: Pittsburgh -2.5
All controversy and on-sides kicks aside, the Pittsburgh Steelers did win last
week and for the time being have a shot to make the playoffs. And while the
media pundits will tell you that Mike Tomlin opted for the on-side attempt because
his defense was terrible, the fact is that they had allowed a total of 14
points a few minutes into the fourth quarter. This week at home we would
again expect to see the high-flying Pittsburgh passing attack in play. While Baltimore
has gotten plenty of press coverage after a couple of wins, it has to be
pointed out that they came against the Bears and Lions at home in very favorable
situations. Already weakened on defense the Ravens lost another cornerback
and will be very susceptible to the big pass play. Pittsburgh will exploit
this weakness and should score 30 points or more. Additionally with Baltimore’s
kicking woes this stadium gives us a huge advantage with Pittsburgh
in a close game. We like the momentum changing win against Green Bay and
will call for Pittsburgh to get the win again this week. Lay the short number.
ERIN RYNNING
Best Bet: Denver +7.5
The Broncos take to the road this weekend with a matchup against the Eagles.
Playoff implications loom large for both sides, but certainly more pressure is
on the road side. Denver was figured to be a lock for the playoffs after a rousing
6-2 start. However, they’ve now lost six of their last eight and it seems the
bottom if falling out -- or at least is certainly looked that way last week after
a home loss to the Raiders. Meanwhile, the Eagles enter this game winners of
five straight. They still have some issues however including a defense that’s
known for poor tackling. The stop-unit really hasn’t been asked much of late
with a slate of San Francisco, Chicago and Atlanta. Denver will at least bring a
run/pass combination that should be able to score points in this game. The
Broncos matchup well defensively with a capable secondary, including cornerback
Champ Bailey who can challenge DeSean Jackson. Denver should be
able to limit the amount of big plays, an obviously key to slowing down the
Eagles’ offense. Expect a more motivated club in Denver to hang in this one.
ROB VENO
Best Bet: Green Bay -13.5
I feel obligated to fade Seattle on the road where its defense has been an absolute
disaster all season long. In their seven games away from Qwest Field, Seattle has
allowed 411.3 total yards and 30.3 points per game. Further dissection unveils a
pass defense which has been torched for 71.2% completions and 278.9 yards per
contest. The inept statistical numbers continue on but the bottom line really sticks
out as the Seahawks have gone 1-6 straight up on the road with all six losses being
by double digits. What is worse is the fact that Seattle appears to have thrown in
the towel on this campaign. Last week’s seven-point performance at home against
Tampa Bay was a disgrace. The zero second half points scored by Seattle in that
game means they have scored a grand total of six points after intermission in their
last three games combined. All three were against non-playoff teams. While the Seahawks
are sinking, Green Bay is on a current 5-0-1 streak against the spread. Their
passing attack has a hand in glove matchup here that it will fully exploit and DC Dom
Capers’ defense will immediately atone for last week against this anemic opponent.
ANDREW LANGE
Best Bet: Under 50
Over the course of the last two months, games involving Tampa Bay haven’t exactly been
emotion filled and hard fought. At least one of the two sides typically gave a halfhearted
performance – more often than not the Buccaneers – and the results showed. The last
five weeks we’ve seen game scores of 45, 37, 22, 29, and 31. On the opposite end of the
spectrum are the Saints, who have posted games scores of 50 and above in over half of
their games. The problem however could be New Orleans’ focus after losing its perfect
season with the loss to Dallas. NFC home field advantage is technically up for grabs but
with Tampa and Carolina to close out the year, the Saints looked poised to wrap things
up. As for Tampa, they come in off a road win over disinterested Seattle. If you eliminate
the 18-point third quarter from that game (five drives of less than 50 yards) you come up
with 36 points over the last 18 quarters from the Bucs. From a historical trend perspective,
totals of 50 or more in the NFL dating back to 2000 have gone under nearly 60%
of the time based on over 230 games. Baring a Josh Cribbs-like special teams’ performance
or multiple defensive touchdowns, this one should land under the total as well
LOGICAL APPROACH
These teams met just 3 seasons ago in this very Bowl where 10 point underdog Kentucky upset Clemson 28-20. The Wildcats are in a fourth straight Bowl and Clemson is Bowling for a fifth straight season. There are rumors circulating the Kentucky coach Brooks will announce his retirement either just before or after this game so there might be an emotional edge for Kentucky. Both teams are off losses with Clemson losing in the ACC Title game to Georgia Tech (for the second time this season) while Kentucky fell in OT to Tennessee, loss 25 in a row to the Vols. Clemson has statistical edges on both sides of the football but the edges are not that great. Clemson RB/KR Spiller had a great season while Kentucky RB Cobb also had a solid though less heralded season. Clemson's most significant win was at Miami while Kentucky had a pair of wins over Auburn and Georgia, both on the road. Both offenses were better running than passing. Both defenses rank in the Top 20 against the pass. This portends a shortened game featuring more running than passing, lending itself to a low scoring contest. The lack of a developed passing game puts the team in the lead in great position to grind out first downs and control clock. Clemson's edge on special teams enhances their overall slight edges with the explosiveness of Spiller perhaps the difference. Clemson may have additional motivation to avenge that previous loss to Kentucky. Their wins this season came against more successful foes as Clemson's 8 wins were against teams that went 50-37 against the rest of their schedules. Kentucky's 7 wins were against teams that went just 27-38 against all others, notwithstanding the Wildcats' two SEC wins cited above. The intangible factors are pretty much even making the selection for this game more heavily weighted towards talent. That edge goes to Clemson. Clemson is forecast to win 27-16, making
CLEMSON a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: GREEN BAY - 14 over Seattle - Seattle was woeful in last week's inexplicable home loss to lowly Tampa Bay as QB Hasselbeck tossed a quartet of interceptions raising questions that he might be bothered by nagging injuries more than he is letting on. The Seahawks may well have packed it in for the season. Green Bay plays to secure a Wild Card and they are commended for their effort in last week's loss at Pittsburgh in what was a negative situation. The Pack rallied several times in that game only to lose on the game's final play. It's a big number to lay but it's hard to make a case for the underdog against a Packer offense that continues to be productive. The Packers have actually been solid on both sides of the ball, ranking # 6 in total offense and # 2 in total defense. Seattle has performed poorly on the road, losing 6 of 7 (winning only at St Louis) with every loss by double digits, 4 by 17 or more. Green Bay has feasted on lower tier teams this season and will be highly motivated to preserve their Wild Card status against a foe they should easily dominate. Green Bay wins 31-13.
Other Featured NFL Selections :
MIAMI - 3 over Houston - This is a Wild Card elimination game as both teams are 7-7 and the loser is eliminated from the Playoffs. The winner is not assured of a Playoff spot but they have an excellent chance to pull even with current Wild Card frontrunners Baltimore and Denver, each of whom have difficult road games this week. Houston has failed to come through several times in so-called pressure situations and last week barely beat flu ridden St Louis by a FG. Miami rallied from a deep deficit only to fall in overtime at Tennessee showing resiliency in a second straight road game. Miami seems to have the stronger will, the better coaching and a much stronger running game. Both teams have flaws but Houston's tend to be magnified at critical stages of games. Houston tends to play well early in games whereas Miami has fared better in late stages of games. There are enough edges to warrant a call on the hosts. Miami wins 27-17.
SAN FRANCISCO - 12 over Detroit - Credit Detroit with a game effort last week to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit to twice tie Arizona at 17 and 24 before allowing the game winning TD in the final 2 minutes. Both teams are looking towards 2010 with the 49ers having brighter prospects at the moment, especially with their nicely developing offense. The emergence of QB Smith combined with an elite RB (Gore) and WR (Crabtree) form the nucleus of an offense which should have success against a defense allowing a league high 36 points per game on the road. San Francisco has 4 double digit home wins this season including each of their last two home games which were against teams much better than the Lions (Arizona and Jacksonville). Detroit will compete for a while and they seem to have turned the corner but they lack depth and experience. The 49ers have a significant edge on defense, especially against the run, and are allowing a dozen points less per game than the Lions. Coach Singletary has earned the respect of his team and they should put forth a max effort in their final home game of the season with a chance to finish at .500. San Francisco wins 34-16.
Minnesota - 7 over Chicago (Monday) - The Vikings have had their problems on the road of late, dropping their last two such contests at Arizona and Carolina by a combined 56-24 score. Chicago is playing out the string and cannot truly play spoiler as the Vikes have already clinched the NFC North title. But Minny is now in danger of losing the # 2 NFC seed to Philadelphia. We've seen teams out of contention use the national limelight as a stage to at least get some satisfaction as San Francisco upset Arizona two weeks ago and last Sunday night saw Carolina upset these very Vikings. But Chicago has not shown the same signs entering this contest as have those other teams that pulled off big home upsets. The night cold will be a challenge for the Vikes in general but not for QB Favre who enjoyed these conditions when with Green Bay. Much will be made of his sideline confrontation with Coach Childress who wanted to take him out of last week's game with the Vikes up 7-6 but it's not really an issue. It's tempting to make a case for the Bears but the edges just are not there. With Minnesota hearing Philly footsteps they should put forth a fully focused effort here to get back on track as a legitimate NFC contender. They have all the fundamental edges. Minnesota wins 27-13.
Best of the Rest (Opinions) TENNESSEE - 3 over San Diego (Friday) Oakland + 3 ½ over CLEVELAND
CINCINNATI - 14 over Kansas City Baltimore + 2 ½ over PITTSBURGH
Denver + 7 over PHILADELPHIA ARIZONA - 14 over St Louis
The Rest (Leans) Buffalo + 9 over ATLANTA Carolina + 7 over N Y GIANTS
NEW ORLEANS 14 over Tampa Bay Jacksonville + 7 ½ over NEW ENGLAND
INDIANAPOLIS - 5 over N Y Jets WASHINGTON + 7 over Dallas
Best of the NFL Totals San Diego/Tennessee OVER 47 Buffalo/Atlanta UNDER 41
Baltimore/Pittsburgh UNDER 41 Detroit/San Francisco OVER 41 ½
N Y Jets/Indianapolis UNDER 40 ½ Dallas/Washington UNDER 42
NELLYS GREENSHEET
Clemson (-7) Kentucky (52)
Kentucky upset Clemson in the 2006 Music City Bowl as a double-digit underdog and the
Wildcats have won bowl games each of the last three seasons including this bowl twice.
Playing close to home should be an edge for the Wildcats and motivation will likely be
stronger on the side of the underdog as Clemson had hopes of greater things this season.
Clemson lost narrowly in the ACC championship and the consolation prize is a significant drop
from the Orange Bowl bid that Georgia Tech received for being just a tiny bit better in that
game. Kentucky endured a challenging SEC schedule and Clemson was soundly defeated by
South Carolina from the conference. The situation was difficult for Clemson in that game but
the Tigers only had two wins away from home all year and they needed OT in one of them.
Statistically this looks like a mismatch as Clemson has edges on both sides of the ball but
Kentucky has found ways to stay in games. The Wildcats are also a deep team as injuries
have allowed several players to become comfortable in many roles. Kentucky closed the year
winning five of the final seven games with the final game loss to Tennessee coming in
overtime. Kentucky won three SEC road games including two wins against bowl teams and
the Wildcats are a team that can find a way to play competitively here. Clemson has several
great players led by C.J. Spiller who will always be a threat on special teams but QB Kyle
Parker completed just 55 percent of his passes on the year and threw 12 interceptions and
Kentucky’s defense will play better than the numbers indicate as bad losses to Florida and
Alabama greatly weighed on the statistics. This game projects to be a lower scoring contest
even though most recent Clemson games have played ‘over’ as both offenses should be
managed by defenses that will be well prepared. CLEMSON BY 3
RATING 2: Kentucky (+7) over Clemson
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (52) Clemson/Kentucky
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
RATING 5 PITTSBURGH (-2½) over Baltimore
RATING 4 JACKSONVILLE (+8) over New England
RATING 3 BUFFALO (+8) over Atlanta
RATING 2 SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) over Detroit
RATING 1 HOUSTON (+3) over Miami
PITTSBURGH (-2½) Baltimore (41) 12:00 PM
Even if it does not ultimately lead to a playoff spot, last week’s win was big for the Steelers
and shows that this is still an elite caliber team despite some major bumps in the road this
season. Baltimore has cruised to back-to-back blowout wins against the NFC North but the
Ravens have been suspect against quality competition and there has been little success for
this franchise in this stadium. The Ravens won the first meeting between these teams, but
barely, and with QB Roethlisberger on the sidelines so this will be a key revenge spot. The
Ravens look like a playoff team this week but that could change in a hurry as this defense is
not nearly as strong as its reputation. STEELERS BY 10
NEW ENGLAND (-8) Jacksonville (43½) 12:00 PM
The Patriots had nearly as many yards in Buffalo penalties as they did on offense last week as
this team is out of sync still. Jacksonville’s offense had an impressive performance last week
but it was not enough to upset the Colts. This is a do-or-die game for the Jaguars who are in
favorable position among the 7-7 teams in the AFC picture should Denver and Baltimore
falter. Jacksonville faces Cleveland next week so this is a team that is far from out of it. New
England has been a dominant home team this season but the Patriots have been a poor ATS
team in recent years as big favorites. New England has some breathing room with the
Dolphins and Jets losing last week. PATRIOTS BY 3
ATLANTA (-8) Buffalo (41½) 12:00 PM
At 7-7 Atlanta is still technically alive in the playoff race but the odds are quite steep. The
Falcons have had a disappointing year but can still close the season with a winning record
with a strong finish. Buffalo actually out-gained New England last week but was on the wrong
end of a lot of penalties to fall to 5-9. The Bills have proven to be capable underdogs as the
defense has a knack for creating turnovers but the offense has a hard time staying on the
field. The Falcons got QB Matt Ryan back last week but the offense has averaged just 15-
points per game the last four weeks. FALCONS BY 4
SAN FRANCISCO (-11½) Detroit (41) 3:05 PM
Drew Stanton played the second half for the Lions last week and though he was not great, the
team rallied when he was in the game. Look for Stanton to start this week if Matthew Stafford
is still out of commission. The 49ers slim playoff hopes crashed last week with turnovers being
the culprit. San Francisco has won and covered in the past three home games while Detroit
has been a terrible ATS team in any situation, including just one road cover all season. San
Francisco is a risky team to lay points with but the Lions really are that bad despite showing a
bit of life last week in a game that should never have been as close as it was. 49ERS by 16
MIAMI (-3) Houston (45) 12:00 PM
Houston and Miami are both lumped into the 7-7 crowd in the AFC playoff race as the
Dolphins blew a great opportunity last week, losing in overtime. The chances for either team
are not particularly great as both teams will face very tough games next week as well. Miami
has some hope as they have a win over Jacksonville, the team with the best conference
record of the 7-7 teams. Denver and Baltimore are both a game ahead of the pace however.
Houston has out-scored foes by 41 points this season while Miami has been out-scored but
the Dolphins have faced the top rated schedule in the NFL. Miami is a tough team to trust as
home favorite while the Texans appear to have more potential. TEXANS BY 3
NFL OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The last five Bucs games have all played ‘under’ as the offense had scored just 57 points in
that span. Tampa Bay’s defense has been respectable in recent weeks including last
week’s big win in Seattle. The total in any New Orleans game will be inflated and this could
be a tough spot for the team after losing its first game last week. The Saints have scored
just 73 points in regulation over the last three games which is well down from the season
numbers and there will be a great emphasis on the defensive side of the ball this week off
the loss. 45 points were scored in the first meeting between these teams to stay ‘under’ the
total and 21 of those points were added late in the game. Drew Brees had just 187 yards
passing in the first meeting and both teams will likely run the ball frequently.
NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP
Clemson and Kentucky last met in the ‘06 Music City Bowl in which UK (+10’) upset CU 28-20 in UK HC Brooks’ first bowl at UK. UK leads the all-time series 8-4. This will be a school record 4th consec bowl for UK and their 3rd appearance in the L/4Y here. UK brought record crowds in ‘06 and ‘07 to Nashville. They were hoping for an Outback bid but fell in OT in their finale to Tenn and landed here again. UK is 8-5 SU all-time in bowls and CU is 15-16. This is HC Swinney’s 2nd bowl (lost LY 26-21 vs Neb in the Gator Bowl). With CU’s loss to GT in the ACC Champ gm and the announcement of FSU HC Bowden’s retirement, CU fell as far as contractually possible in the ACC bowl order. The Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in neutral site gms while UK has won a school record 18 consec gms vs non-conf opp’s incl a school record 3 bowls in a row (2 were outright upsets). CU has faced 8 caliber bowl teams (GT twice) and went 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS, barely outgaining them 410-406. UK has faced 6 bowl teams with a 2-4 SU record (3-3 ATS) and was outgained by an avg of 409-286. Both teams lost to SC TY, but UK lost by 2 and CU lost by 17 the wk prior to the ACC Champ gm. Tigers have 10 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen while UK has 9 seniors starters and 15 upperclassmen.
The Tigers are led by the ACC POY RB CJ Spiller who is avg 193 all-purp ypg which ranks him #4 in the NCAA and is the only player in the FBS to score a TD in every gm TY. Although CU lost to GT in the ACC Title game, Spiller was named the game’s MVP. QB Parker has set CU frosh records for pass TD’s, yds and comp. His 2 favorite targets are 1st Tm ACC TE Palmer and 2nd Tm ACC WR Ford. CU’s OL avg 6’4” 313 and is led by two 2nd Tm ACC OL’s in LG Thomas Austin and LT Chris Hairston. The Tigers have only all’d 19 sks (5.1%) while paving the way for 4.8 ypc rush. CU has our #16 offense and our #10 defense. CU’s D-line avg 6’4” 283 and is led by 2nd Tm ACC DE Sapp. The Tigers have 34 sks and have held opp’s to just 3.5 ypc rush. The CU D is all’g 21 ppg and 317 ypg. The LB corps is led by HM ACC Maye. CU has our #16 pass eff defense and has recorded 21 int. The secondary is led by 1st Tm ACC S McDaniel and HM ACC CB Chancellor. CU has our #18 spec tms led by AA specialist Spiller who has recorded 4 KR TD’s TY. CU is avg 23.8 ypr on KR’s and 14.4 on PR’s. They are all’g 20.1 ypr on KR’s and 11.5 on PR’s.
UK has soldiered through another tough year with injuries affecting the outcome of their ssn. QB Hartline suffered a knee inj in the 5th gm which forced true frosh Newton to burn his RS. Hartline did play in 1 more but was ineffective. Newton st’d the L/6, but has had the typical struggles that a true frosh faces in the SEC. Cobb is the team’s top receiver but was forced to take more snaps at QB (mostly in the Wildcat) and is #2 on the tm in rushing behind RB Locke who also missed some time with inj. With time off to heal, both Locke and Cobb should have a strong showing in the bowl and Cobb missed LY’s bowl with inj so he should be excited for this one. The OL starters avg 6’4” 305 with 4 seniors and they have been solid allowing just 15 sks despite the inexperience at QB and UK has avg 193 rush ypg (4.6). Overall UK ranks #54 on offense and #46 on defense. Unfortunately one of the D’s top performers will miss the bowl as All-SEC LB Maxwell suffered a shoulder inj vs Tenn. He had 6 int TY, the most ever in a single ssn by a UK LB. Two of UK’s other top defenders were hobbled by inj’s as ‘08 AA CB Lindley missed 4 gms with an ankle inj and MLB Johnson played through a bothersome knee inj. Overall the defensive numbers were down from LY as they all’d 44 ypg rush more but still ranked #15 in our pass D rankings allowing just 180 ypg (48%) with a 16-16 ratio and CB Lindley should be healthy for this. UK is #42 in our spec tms rankings with a solid P and dangerous returnmen, but K Seiber is erratic and KO man McIntosh has had 4/47 KO’s OOB.
Kentucky had one major goal this year and that was to improve to a non-Tennessee bowl. While Clemson is also disappointed to be here, HC Swinney’s enthusiasm should be enough to return Clemson to their high energy style of play in which they covered 5 straight and avg’d 42 ppg from mid-Oct thru mid-Nov. The checklist shows the talent difference between these two squads and although most players were not part of the 2006 Music City Bowl, the Tigers still gain revenge for that loss.
FORECAST: CLEMSON by 17 RATING:
4* CLEMSON
NFL Key Selections:
3* GREEN BAY over Seattle - Including playoffs this is the 4th straight season with a meeting between the teams with the favorite going 3-0 SU/ATS. GB went into SEA as a 1 pt AD & beat them 27-17.GB had a 313-177 yd edge vs a very depleted SEA team that started its #3 QB due to injuries. SEA had a 17-3 lead when the Packers scored 24 unanswered points then allowed a garbage TD late in the 4Q. The Packers had a 313-177 yd edge as Rodgers hit for 208 yds (70%) with 2 TD’s. GB’s #2 rush defense which is allowing 89 ypg (3.9) at home TY vs weak SEA rush attack. Rodgers has avg 269 ypg (66%) with a 13-3 ratio at home TY has only been sacked 6 times in the L4 games prior to PIT. SEA’s #16 pass rush has been balanced TY pulling in 12 sacks on the road TY but are allowing 290 ypg (71%) with a 15-4 ratio on the road. SEA has been outgained by 138 ypg in the 4 games prior to TB as their defense wears down & defenses have figured out how to expose the OL. GB has lots to play for as they want the #5 seed, have a road trip to ARZ on deck & SEA simply doesn’t travel well with their only road win TY being vs a STL team that started Boller.
FORECAST: GREEN BAY 27 Seattle 10
3* Houston over MIAMI - This game means a lot to both as Houston players want to keep Kubiak & the Dolphins may have an outside shot at the playoffs. This is the 4th meeting between the teams & while MIA has yet to host or win a game they have covered the L2. LY HOU beat the Dolphins 29-28 but failed to cover as a 3 pt HF. HOU overcame 4 TO’s in the game with a 485-370 yd edge as Schaub ran for the game winning TD on 4th & goal with :07 left. MIA is 5-24 ATS as a HF. HOU is 7-2 ATS as an AD. We would love to see the Dolphins still in the playoff hunt as they are off a stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks and they would be laying an inflated playoff need number. HOU rebounded from a devastating 4 game losing streak and beat SEA 2 weeks ago. Remember this team has been 8-8 each of the last 2 seasons and still plays hard down the stretch winning and covering 5 of 7. This is similar to LY when MIA was a HF in Dec laying 6 pts to SF and did win but failed to cover being
conservative & getting outgained 318-248. FORECAST: Houston 28 MIAMI 24
Other Selections:
2* ATLANTA over Buffalo - This is the Falcons 4th home game in 5 weeks but they have a road gamevsTBondeck.Thereisstillaquestionifth eFalconshaveRyan(turftoe)hereastheteamha s hinted that a steel toed shoe isn’t working out. If Turner plays he could have a solid day vs poor run defense & Gonzalez is a great matchup vs a depleted BUF LB unit. ATL has a poor pass defense/ pass rush that could struggle vs BUF WR’s. ATL HC Smith has preached taking care of your home field and despite still being 12-3 at home they are off B2B home losses as both Ryan & Turner missed the Philly & NO games. The Falcons are 5-0 SU & 4-1 as a HF TY and big win in their home finale will be motivation. The Bills offense is avg just 265 ypg on the road and have topped the 300 yard barrier just once. This is the Bills 3rd game away from home in 4 weeks sandwiched by a pair of marquee home games vs NE & the potentially undefeated Colts and this is not their spot. BUF’s rush defense has surrendered 190 ypg & 5.2 ypc the last 11 games & the Falcons are 6-1 ATS in
games they rush for over 90 yds in. Atlanta takes care of business in their home finale.
3* Texans/Dolphins OVER
3* Patriots/Jaguars UNDER
2* Saints/Bucs OVER
2* Colts/Jets UNDER
BANG THE BOOOK
Clemson was one of the best teams in the ACC this year and they had one of the most explosive players in the game in CJ Spiller a Heisman hopeful that can take it for six every time he touches the ball. Even that wasn’t enough to win the ACC as the lost in the Championship game to Georgia Tech.
Kentucky had a decent year but is not close enough to competing with the elite in the tough SEC. The most impressive thing about Kentucky may have been the ability to win on the road as they were 4-1 on the highway getting impressive wins against Georgia and Auburn along the way.
Clemson has not been profitable on the road as they finished below .500 and they have a myriad of trends that will oppose them in this spot today. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games as a favorite, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Kentucky has the offense to keep up with the Tigers and know how to win on the road. The Wildcats are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Get this game now when you get still get the hook. Clemson may get out to a fast start but the Wildcats keep this within a touchdown. Play the Cats in the Music City Bowl
Music City Bowl Pick Kentucky +7.5
Tampa Bay -13
The Raiders looked great last week in the final game at home but don’t look for a repeat performance this week. Tampa needs the win and have killed their own position down the stretch. It is also the last game for DC Monty Kiffin. Tampa Bay has lost three straight and now not only needs to beat Oakland, but also hope for Philadelphia to beat Dallas to earn a post-season berth. The Bucs are 20-12-1 ATS at home in December and 27-10 ATS after losing SU as favorites. The Raiders have come up short in 20 of their last 25 on the road during the final month of the season and dropped 17 of their last 21 finales ATS. Oakland is 0-7 ATS vs. NFC and loses big!
Philly -2
This is a big game for both squads as it is a must win to even have a shot at the playoffs. The Cowboys had a big chance but lost at home when the defense collapsed in the waning minutes of the game. Philadelphia is 25-8 ATS avenging a close loss by seven points or less. The Eagles are also 8-1 ATS off a division setback. Dallas has flopped in 19 of its last 26 season finales ATS. There is nothing McNabb would like more than to send T.O. home for the playoffs. A big game from McNabb and Westbrook will put Dallas to rest for the season.
Vikings -6.5
The Giants have nothing left to play for while the Vikings have everything in the world to play for. Minnesota wins the NFC North with a victory or a Chicago loss. The Vikings play very well at home and the Giants will look to avoid injuries. The defending champs are 12-19 as road favorites of three or more and 10-16 ATS on the road after allowing 28 points or more. The Giants should just go through the motions and this will be close if not an outright win for the Vikings.
Houston -2.5
The Bears won an overtime game on Monday night to stay alive in the playoffs but now have to go to Houston. The Texans were playing great ball until they ran into a buzz saw in the pathetic Oakland Raiders. The last game at home and off an embarrassment the Texans will throttle the Bears on a short week. Chicago has struggled on the road down the stretch, posing an 8-29-1 spread mark on the road in December and failing at a 2-10-2 clip in its last 14 tries. The Bears are 6-10-1 ATS on the highway against AFC opponents. Take the Texans to win big!
Jets -3
The Jets need this win and they need the Patriots to lose if they are going to make into the playoffs. New York has won 12 of 16 against Miami, including a 24-14 win as 2 1/2-point road favorites this year. The Jets have 'covered' at a torrid 12-3-2 clip versus the Dolphins at the Meadowlands. Miami has dropped 14 of its last 20 road finales ATS and is 10-25 ATS versus division foes the last four week of the season. Miami is a pathetic 49-72 ATS vs. the division. The Jets win after an embarrassment last week in Seattle.
Buffalo +6.5
Everyone is talking about how the Patriots need the Jets to win or Baltimore to lose to make the playoffs, but hold the phone. The Patriots still need to win to make sure that they even have a shot at the playoffs and as you can tell by the performance in Buffalo the bill are not done playing by a long shot. They have cashed seven of nine as home dogs off a SU win and would love to knock New England out of the playoffs after all the beatings they have taken by them this year.
Bengals -2.5
No one has been paying attention but the bengals are playing pretty good football. They have a solid ground game in Cedric Benson who put up some gaudy numbers last week against the Browns and the defense has been playing well overall. This week they play a bad team with a bad defense and have a shot at ending the season on a good note. The Bengals have covered 15 of 17 versus poor pass defenses - allowing seven or more yards per play - during the second half of the season. The Bengals win in easy fashion over a tired KC team
LARRY NESS
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
PICK: Pittsburgh Steelers -3
The Steelers snapped their five-game losing streak and ended the Packers' five-game win streak last Sunday when Ben Roethlisberger connected on a 19-yard TD pass to Mike Wallace on the game's final play. Big Ben threw for 503 yards which was an NFL season high, a personal career high and a franchise high. He became the first QB to throw for 500 yards in a game since Drew Brees put up 510 in 2006 and the first to throw for 500-plus in a win since Boomer Esiason in 1996. A season after the Steelers beat San Diego in the first 11-10 game in NFL history, they won the first-ever 37-36 game. What's next? For sure, a game vs the Ravens, who unlike the Steelers, control their own fate. Baltimore is off back-to-back easy wins over the Lions (48-3) and the Bears (31-7) plus can still catch AFC North-leading Cincinnati. A wild card spot is more likely and the Ravens can clinch that with a win here and some help from the log-jam of 7-7 teams (one less now that the Titans lost to the Chargers). Pittsburgh needs a lot of help to reach the playoffs and attempt to defend its Super Bowl title. Big Ben is on pace fro almost 4,400 passing yards, has completed 67.7 percent (that would be a career-best) and has a QB rating of 100.6(2nd-highest of his career). Both Holmes (1,157) and Ward (1,069) have topped 1,000 receiving yards and Mendenhall (978 YR / 4.8 YPC) will go over 1,000 yards rushing today. Baltimore safety Ed Reed has missed the last three games and his return is not likely for this one, while rookie CB Webb tore a ligament in his right knee against the Bears and will miss the rest of the season. Baltimore's defense has not been its dominating self this year allowing 24 points to KC, 26 to SD, 27 to NE, 33 to Minny and 27 to GB. The offense though, has been much better. Flacco is off a four-TD game last week while Ray Rice has developed into one of the league's very best all-purpose RBs (1,128 YR / 5.4 YPC / 7 TDs plus a team-high 73 catches). The Ravens have beaten up on some of the league's worst teams but have struggled vs better opponents. Of course, the question then becomes, is Pittsburgh one of the league's better teams? The Steelers' seven losses in 2009 have come by a total of just 28 points and while they miss Polamalu, I wouldn't count them out in this "must win" game. Pittsburgh ran about 58 percent of the time last year but this year it's about 45 percent and against a Baltimore secondary which is way less than 100 percent healthy and one which has shown a real penchant for penalties all season, Big Ben and Co. get a pretty good matchup. Let me note that the Ravens have lost their last four road games vs winning opponents (Pats, Vikes, Bengals and Packers) and barely earned a win in a "triple-revenge" game at Baltimore in Week 12. Baltimore needed a FG in the last two minutes to send that game into OT before beating the Steelers and reserve QB Dennis Dixon 20-17. Here, the Ravens get Big Ben and I'm laying the points.
Mike Hook
JAC +10 vs NEP
Yes, i'm biting on the Jaguars here. I expect the Patriots to win this game, but 10 points is an awful lot of points here in my opinion. Let's not forget that technically the Jaguars are still in the AFC Wild Card hunt, so they will be playing with a purpose today.
I like Jacksonville to keep this game close for a few reasons. First and foremost, i think the Jaguars can run the football against the Patriots. The Jaguars have a top 8 rushing offense in the NFL. Maurice Jones Drew will be facing off against his friend Fred Taylor, so you know Jones-Drew will be running with his own chip on his shoulder. I believe the Jaguars will run as much as possible today to keep the Patriots and a Tom Brady led offense off the field. The Jaguars game plan will be similar to how they played the Colts. If you look back, the Jaguars owned the time of possession against the Colts, and that's what kept that specific game close. So why wouldn't that happen again today? Well, the Jaguars are on the road against a team they have struggled against in the past. However, i think this year will be different. At the top of the reasons why, it's the amount of preparation time. The Jaguars have had a few extra days to prepare for this game tonight, since they last played the Colts last Thursday. Those extra days of rest and preparation are huge at this point in the season.
The Patriots have some motivation in winning today, as they would clinch their division. But when you talk about the Patriots, they don't get excited about winning divisions. They clearly expect more than that. Once the Chargers beat the Titans, it eliminated any chance for the Patriots to earn the number 2 seed in the AFC. The Patriots are only 1-3 ATS this year as double digit home favorites. A big reason for this "problem" is the Patriots offense, as it simply hasn't been as explosive in years past. The Patriots haven't scored more than 21 points in 4 straight games. Is Tom Brady still a bit banged up? That's a huge question as the playoff picture emerges.
So i think I've established what the Jaguars game plan is for today, along with the fact that the Patriots haven't been clicking completely on offense. One other thing to consider today is the weather. It's supposed to rain through the night and into the first half. There is a very good chance that this playing field is going to be sloppy. So who does that truly favor? I think it favors the road Jaguars, as they will be looking to run the football as much as possible, and to play somewhat conservative to keep the game close. I don't think the Patriots are good enough on offense to win this game handily to begin with, yet alone on a sloppy field. The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS this year as an underdog of 4 points or greater. I see no reason why the Jaguars don't improve that record to 4-0 ATS this year. I believe the Jaguars will play well today with their entire season on the line. While i think they lose a hard fought game, i believe this game will be decided by 3-6 points. I think we have clear value on the Jaguars, and I'm backing them +10 as my free play for 1 UNIT!
Brett Atkins
I improved to 11-7 with my last 18 free selections when the Thunder got the win and cover at home over the Bobcats on Saturday, and today I've got a comp winner coming on the NFL gridiron with the Eagles as they will blow out the Broncos when they come visiting Philadelphia.
Maybe no team playing better in the NFC right now than the Eagles as they’ve rattled off five straight wins (4-1 ATS) and they’re getting it done on both sides of the ball.
Philadelphia has found success with the vertical offense, as Donovan McNabb has found a new favorite target in DeSean Jackson who is having a remarkable season, seemingly getting deep on every team he faces. And the Eagles’ defense is dangerous, forcing 36 turnovers this season and ranking 11th overall. They have also picked off 23 passes, good for third in the NFL.
On the other side, Denver has struggled since opening 6-0. It culminated with a 20-19 home loss to the Raiders in Denver last week, giving up a last-minute score for the game-winner. The offense has struggled mightily, averaging just 19.6 points a game and they had to settle for four field goals last week and just on TD.
The Eagles are on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 7-3 at home and 4-0 in December contests. Denver is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 1-4 as an underdog, 1-6 in December games and 8-24 after a non-cover.
Philly can clinch the NFC East with the win and stay in the hunt for the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They are going to light up the Broncos in this one. Lay the chalk and play the Eagles
3♦ PHILADELPHIA