Jay McNeil
I didn't get the margin of victory I was expecting, but I still picked up a win with my free play Saturday as Pittsburgh edged North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. That makes me 3-1 over the past four days, and I've got an NFL winner today to keep the momentum going.
The Packers are in hot pursuit of a wild-card spot, and they get a chance to move closer to that with a home game against the struggling Seahawks.
Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers passed for 383 yards last week in the team's heartbreaking 37-36 loss to Pittsburgh, and has been incredible this year, completing 64.4 percent of his throws for 3,962 yards and 28 touchdowns with just seven interceptions.
Now he gets to take aim against a Seattle team that ranks 29th in pass defense, allowing 249.4 yards per game, and lost 24-7 at home last week to the woeful Buccaneers.
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck used to be one of the NFC's top passers, but now multiple injuries have left him of shell of his former self. He matched a career high with four interceptions against Tampa Bay and also lost a fumble. He can't be counted on to lead an offense anymore, and backup Seneca Wallace really isn't any better.
The Packers are on ATS streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 as a favorite, 3-1-1 at home and 3-0-1 vs. teams with a losing record. Seattle is on ATS slides of 1-8 as an underdog, 1-7 on the road, 0-8 as a road 'dog and 4-9 overall. Take Green Bay to win in a rout today.
3♦ GREEN BAY
Charley Sutton
It wasn’t overwhelming, but USC did just enough to get us another Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another one today as I’m taking the Packers at home against the visiting Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks come into this game one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. Considered before the season a favorite to win the NFC West, the Seahawks have won just 5 of 14 games SU and ATS this year.
Coming into this game the Seahawks have covered in just 3 of 10 games against the NFC and are just 1-7 ATS their last 8 roadies. Even worse, Seattle has failed to cover in 8 straight games in which it was installed as a road underdog.
Now they hit the road to battle a Packers team that’s gone 5-0-1 ATS its last 6 games and has not lost a game ATS its last 4 against the NFC. Green Bay is also riding a 3-0-1 ATS winning streak when installed as a favorite and is 4-1 ATS its last 5 games in December.
The Packers will cover once again and get over on the visiting Seahawks.
3 ♦ PACKERS
Joel Tyson
For Sunday, I like a low-scoring game between Jacksonville and New England.
Checking the weather forecast, and it looks like rain is expected throughout the day in the Boston area, so that means we could be seeing more than a few runs from these teams, especially the Jags.
Jacksonville did get involved in a shoot-out with Indianapolis their last time out, but they have played UNDER in 9 of their last 13 road games, while New England is on a 4-0-1 UNDER clip their last 5 games.
I am going LOW in Foxboro this Sunday.
2♦ JACKSONVILLE-NEW ENGLAND UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Jaguars plus the points against the Patriots in Sunday’s NFL action.
You know how many times the Patriots have covered a pointspread in the last seven games? Twice, and one of those was as a two-point underdog in that disastrous loss to the Colts on Nov. 15. During this seven-game stretch, New England is just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite and 1-2 ATS at home.
The problem with laying points with the Patriots right now? Tom Brady and once high-powered offense is in a major funk, scoring 17, 21, 20 and 17 points the last four weeks – and three of those games came against the Dolphins, Panthers and Bills. If you can’t score more than three touchdowns, you shouldn’t be laying the kind of chalk New England is laying today.
The Jaguars are coming off that heartbreaking 35-31 home loss to the Colts as a 3 ½-point underdog, but at 7-7, they’re still alive for a wild-card berth. Jacksonville is just 5-4 in its last nine games and 2-8 ATS in its last 10, however the Jags’ last three games were decided by 5, 4 and 4 points (all against playoff-contenders Houston, Miami and Indy), and seven of their last nine contests were decided by five points or fewer.
Jacksonville is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as a road underdog of 3½ to 10 points, while New England is just 4-3 ATS at home this year and has just one victory of more than 10 points since its bye week (which encompasses its current 2-4-1 ATS drought).
4♦ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Tony Weston
Pitt does just enough yesterday to get the job done and give us a Comp Play winner. I’m handing you another Comp Play winner today as I’m taking the Cleveland Browns at home against the visiting Oakland Raiders.
The Browns come into today’s game riding a 5-game ATS winning streak and have back-to-back SU victories the last two weeks.
Now they battle a Raiders team that’s been up and down ATS lately, but has to rely on No. 3 quarterback Charlie Frye to lead the team. That doesn’t bode well for Oakland, as Frye picked up just 68 yards passing and threw an interception in last week’s start at Denver.
Consider, too, historically, the Browns have fared well against the Raiders, covering in 4 straight against Oakland and winning 3 of 4 SU.
It’ll happen again as Cleveland covers at home against the visitors.
3♦ BROWNS
Dominic Fazzini
St. Louis at ARIZONA -14
It was tight, but I came up with another winner with my complimentary selection Saturday, backing Pittsburgh against North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. That improved my record to 46-31 over the past 77 days, with a run of 29-18 over the last 47!
I've got another sure winner today as the Cardinals are going to bounce back from a couple of subpar showings and slaughter the Rams. Arizona struggled to beat Detroit 31-24 as a 14-point favorite last week, clinching the NFC West title, after losing 24-9 to San Francisco the week before that.
But with the playoffs drawing near and the No. 2 seed in the NFC still a remote possibility, the Cards are looking for a strong effort today, and they have an opponent with St. Louis that likely won't put up much resistance.
Rookie QB Keith Null is expected to make his third NFL start for the Rams, and he been largely ineffective, passing for two touchdowns with six interceptions. And St. Louis' main offensive threat, Steven Jackson, didn't practice for most of the week because of a back injury, though he is expected to play today.
The Cardinals' running game has improved greatly as the season has progressed, with Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells helping Arizona average 126 yards on the ground over the past seven games. That has helped balance the team's offensive attack, and should make things a lot easier for QB Kurt Warner today.
Arizona is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games and 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games overall. The home team is also 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams. Take the Cardinals to win in a landslide today.
4♦ ARIZONA
Bobby Maxwell
Cowboys -7' at WASHINGTON
I'm on a 36-16 run with my FREE plays, including 13-2 with my last 15. Tonight I've got a comp winner in the Sunday night NFL matchup between the Cowboys and Redskins, as Dallas will come out and dismantle the hopeless Redskins.
Dallas got a huge monkey off its back last week with the upset of the Saints in New Orleans, finally winning a December contest and putting itself in position to control its own playoff destiny.
The Cowboys pulled off the 24-17 upset as a 7 ½-point underdog in New Orleans last week and now go to face the hapless Redskins in Washington. Now people are talking about how the Cowboys could still get away with the NFC East title and how they seem to be clicking offensively at the right time.
Dallas is third in the NFL at 394.5 yards per game and they average 22.9 points a game. Defensively, they might be ranked in the middle of the pack, but they have some guys who know how to get after it and step it up when it’s needed. DeMarcus Ware returned to the playing field less than a week after getting carted off on a stretcher, but he came up with two sacks against Drew Brees and the Saints, including a sack and fumble to halt the final drive.
The Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 trips to D.C. and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series. At home, the Redskins are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.
The Redskins are having more internal trouble with high-paid DL Albert Haynesworth complaining about everything the coaching staff is doing.
Lay the chalk and look for the Cowboys to win this one by 17.
4♦ DALLAS
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +2.41 over PITTSBURGH
The Penguins are most certainly one of the league’s best teams but in no way can we pass up the Maple Leafs at this price. For one, it’s rare to see the Maple Leafs get outplayed these days and they’ll very likely come out again tonight and play its heart out again. The Leafs got no justice last night against Montreal when they made the Habs look like a Junior A team but lost in OT. They’ve now lost five of six with four of those being at the Air Canada Center so a three-game road trip is probably a welcomed thing for them. The Pens have been at home for a week and the four-day layoff might not be as beneficial as you might expect, especially after Christmas. Anyway, this isn’t about playing against the Pens. This is about playing a very good Leafs squad on the road with a big take-back. With its heart, talent and determination, the Leafs cannot be passed up on with this big a tag on them. Play: Toronto +2.41 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +1.24 over CALGARY
The Canucks are another team that are almost always worthy of a wager when taking back a tag. They barely broke a sweat last night in a 4-1 win over the Oilers and playing back-to-back after the short break might even be an advantage. Besides that, the Flames are in a serious funk with just one win in its last six and that win was a narrow one over the Kings. Only once over that six-game stretch did Calgary manage more than 24 shots on net and if they’re held to 24 or less here, its chances of winning are slim at best. The Canucks are hot with six wins in its last eight and have held the opponent to two goals or less in five of those eight games including the last two. The Canucks have already lost both meetings to the Flames this season but both of those were in the season’s first couple of weeks. Now the Canucks are healthy, hot and guaranteed to be ready to go here. Play: Vancouver +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
Tom Freese
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 home games and they are 16-7 ATS their 23 games as favorites of 10.5 points or higher. The 49ers are 5-0-2 ATS their last 7 games off an ATS loss and they are 6-1-1 ATS off a straight up loss. Detroit is 7-18 ATS their last 25 road games vs. a team with a losing home record and they are 15-6-1 ATS their last 22 games as underdogs of 10.5 or more points. The Lions are 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games as road underdogs and they are 1-4-1 ATS their last 6 games vs. the 49ers. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO -
Sean Higgs
Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Seattle Seahawks +14
Seattle got embarrassed last week at home. This is a veteran team that will play with some pride, even on the road in Green Bay. Hasselbeck has the WRs to take advantage of a banged up Pack secondary. The Pack are in off a total heart-breaker losing with no time on the clock to the Steelers. Big Ben tossed for over 500 yards! Something tells me that loss lingers a bit here. This is a big number by NFL standards.
Hollywood Sports
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Prediction: Under
The Lions are decimated with injuries -- particularly on the offensive side of the football. Starting running back Kevin Smith is out the year -- and will be replaced by journeyman Maurice Morris. Starting QB Matthew Stafford is also out the year with his injured knee. Unfortunately, backup veteran QB Dante Culpepper has been so ineffective that third-stringer Drew Stanton gets his first NFL start in this game. He is unlikely to jumpstart an offense that scores under two touchdowns a game along with just 264 total YPG when playing on the road. The 49ers offense scores only 21.3 PPG at home -- but their defense steps up their intensity at home as they hold their opponents to just 15.3 PPG and only 314.9 total YPG. While San Fran lost to Philadelphia last week, they usually respond with a focused defensive effort emblematic of coach Mike Singletary -- as a result, eight of the last ten games the 49ers have played after a loss have gone under the point total. Expect a low-scoring game here and take the Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Texans +3
This is a good matchup for the Texans as I expect their No. 2 ranked passing attack to win the battle against Miami's No. 23 ranked pass defense today. Plus, I really have no trouble fading the Phins at home when you consider that they are just 6-16 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, losing by an average score of 21.2 to 26. Also, the Phins have had a lot or trouble bouncing back from close defeats and last week's loss to Tennessee was a heartbreaker. In fact, Miami is 0-7 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points over the last 3 seasons, losing in these spots by an average score of 15.9 to 30.0. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Texans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Also, the Dolphins are just 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. Take the points.
Scott Delaney
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
I have no clue why I am thinking about Tim Tebow when I think about this game, but after the Saints lost last Saturday to the Cowboys to suffer their first loss of the season, I picture Drew Brees giving the same speech Tebow did last season after Florida losing to Mississippi:
"You will never see any player in the entire country who will play harder than I will play the rest of the season. And you will not see someone push the rest of the team as hard as I will push everybody for the rest of the season, and you will never see a team play harder than we will the rest of the season."
Did the loss really do anything to derail the Saints' season, no, just like it did not do anything to the Gators ... negatively.
Instead, the setback will act like a catalyst.
Mark my words, Tampa Bay is in for a world of trouble when it comes to the Big Easy for today's game.
The Buccaneers are in off a surprising win in Seattle last week, so they may be in with their guard down after scoring a satisfying win. Perhaps they played that well knowing what would be in store for them this week.
The Saints will clinch home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs by beating Tampa Bay.
Brees has admitted his team needs to get back to a better run-pass balance, a major reason the Saints are 13-1 entering this game. New Orleans leads the league in total offense and is third in passing and fifth in rushing. But in its last four games, New Orleans has passed for an average of 335.5 yards and rushed for an average of 82.
It's back to business for the Saints, as they put it all together in Tebow-like fashion to win big and wrap up that playoff-advantage.
5♦ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on Jacksonville. I don't know about you, but I can't see any reason why the Patriots should be giving this many points to anyone right now. Their offense isn't producing the points many have come to expect from them and the defense has been hit or miss. Honestly, it will take a perfect game from them today to get this kind of point spread cover. Tom Brady isn't hitting open receivers on the deep ball, Randy Moss still appears to be taking plays off, and the offensive line isn't as consistent in their pass-blocking as they would like. Meanwhile, Jacksonville is fighting for their playoff lives and has to feel good about how they played, at least offensively, last Thursday vs. Indy. The Jags have had a few extra days to prepare for Tom Brady and should be a little more consistent on defense. Maurice Jones-Drew is a one-man wrecking crew in the backfield and will likely be used more in the passing game to keep the aggressive Patriots defense honest. David Garrard hasn't been the most prolific passer in Jacksonville history, but the combination of his arm and his legs make him hard to figure out at times. The Jags have been underdogs of 4 points or more three times this season... and they've covered all three. Let's make it 4-0 today, as I see them easily keeping this score within 10 points. Free play of the day on the Jags over New England.
4♦ JACKSONVILLE
Steve Duemig
For Sunday's comp play, let's take a peak at the Tampa Bay-New Orleans game because it doesn't take much to decide which way to go in this contest.Original line opened at 16 and was beaten down to the current level of 14.5. The books should have learned by now that teams laying more than two td's inside their division have not been very successful this year. The sharpies let them know right off the bat by unloading on the Bucs. all this while 65% of spread bets are on NO, yet the line moved toward the Bucs. That shows you where the big money is, and at anything over two td's as I expect it to be around kick off is a solid play. Bucs coming off of a solid win against Seattle last week on the road and NO coming off of a loss at home. This is also not the same defense that the Bucs will be playing this time around against the Saints. They have gone back to their old and more comfortable scheme from the old days of successful Buc teams. In the now famous words of Coach Tony Dungy, the Bucs have no chance to win this game in NO no chance!! But they have a great chance to cover the big number which is all we care about.
1♦ TAMPA BAY