Drew Gordon
Jacksonville +10 at NEW ENGLAND
26-17-2 roll L45 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Jaguars/Patriots match up.
Needless to say both teams are motivated here, but let's not lose sight of the fact that a loss by the Jaguars eliminates them from the playoffs... So, don't tell me the Patriots are "just as motivated," because that is NOT the case! The public seems to have jumped back on the Brady bandwagon, thanks to a couple decent wins in the last 2 weeks, but I couldn't disagree more.
What the public sees and what I see are two completely different things. I see a Pats team that struggled at New Orleans, at Miami, then beat a bad Carolina team (didn't cover) and a terrible Buffalo team... What is there to like? On the flip side, the Jaguars may have lost 3 of their L4, but they beat Houston and hung tough with Indianapolis over that span - two quality efforts (going 1-1 ATS over that span). Note, seeing a pass-happy team again this week, after facing Manning last week, can only help this defense's preparation.
New England's defense has been rock-solid at home, but if there's one area where they're vulnerable, its against the run. Pats are allowing 117 rushing yards/game at Gillette this season, on an ugly 4.8 yards/carry... That's more than generous enough for stud Jones-Drew to keep his team in the game and in the playoff hunt.
Finally, it appears as though CB Rasean Mathis is finally coming back this week, and that's critical against Brady and this offense. Big John Henderson already returned, and the return of Mathis (a defensive leader) will only boost this beleagured Jacksonville stop-unit. In the end, it may be tempting to bet the Patriots at home in this spot, but I see the Jaguars bringing everything they've got left in this match up.
Take Jacksonville plus the points over New England in this NFL match up.
2♦ JACKSONVILLE
Matt Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers staved off playoff elimination with that unreal last second, literally, comeback win last week against the red hot Packers. Now the Steelers are at home once again and face a familiar foe in the Baltimore Ravens.
Just about a month ago Mike Tomlin’s squad went into Baltimore without their quarterback and took Ray Lewis and the Ravens to overtime as the 8 point dog. Dennis Dixon did an admirable job but when the chips were down the third stringer threw a poor interception in the extra session and that was it in the end.
Pittsburgh should once again be without their key defensive cog in Troy Polamalu which isn’t great but Ed Reed is banged up for them and may not play either.
In the end we are looking at an extremely physical game like usual for these teams and with their season once again on the line I can’t help but back the world champs at Heinz Field. Both Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are winners who will not go down without a fight and no matter how bad the defense has regressed at times this is still the Steelers defense.
When you put winners up against a wall more times than not they come through for professional bettors. Sure the games against the Raiders and Browns were inexplicably horrific but Pittsburgh showed their mettle last week and has no choice but to show up today and flex their muscles one more time.
I do like Ray Rice and Joe Flacco and the visiting Ravens as they are a semi elite team that happened to lose a lot of close games to quality competition this season but I don’t see them sweeping the season series and dropping the Steelers to an unfathomable 1-5 in the division for the season.
It’ll be a brutal smash mouth game for sure and in the end the Steelers will do enough to pull this thing out and save their season one more week.
Pick: 23-17 Steelers
Tony Karpinski
Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Dallas Cowboys -7
Dallas is rolling right now on both sides of the ball while Washington just looks confused. Jim Zorn is just playing out the season and the players have packed it in as the play calling is awful and the players have given up. Dallas is primed for the playoffs and you'll see a big advantage on Special Teams and Tony Romo will have another big game throwing to his favorite target Jason Whitten. DALLAS by 17 on Sunday night!
THE FALL MIRACLE
SEATTLE (+14) over GREEN BAY
The Seahawks hit the low point in recent franchise history. After losing by 27 at Houston they came home and lost handily to one of the worst teams in the league with a rookie QB even though they out-gained the Bucs on the day. A couple of things here. First of all, Hasselbeck threw 4 interceptions and fumbled last week so he won't have a game like that again. He hadn't thrown more than 2 in a game all season. Also, Seattle will score at least 2 touchdowns here and they should have WR Nate Burleson back. The Seahawks as a franchise haven't been held to single digits for 3 games in a row since 1993. Not that what happened many years ago is particularly relevant to this game, but after scoring just 7 points in consecutive games, you have to think an offense with capable players like on Seattle's unit should get some points here. It's true that 3 of the Seahawks' 5 wins came over the Rams (twice) and the Lions, but so did the Packers, who beat the Rams and Lions twice. The Packers also got to play the Browns. And those 3 teams are the only teams the Packers blew out. When I think of 14 point underdogs I think of the Browns, Rams, Lions or Bucs. Not a team like Seattle with a veteran QB and good receivers like T.J. Houshmandzadeh. And when I think of 14 point favorites, I think of the Colts or the Saints, not a team like Green Bay who lost to the 4 best teams they played. More importantly, let's look at the timing of this. Seattle just lost to Tampa Bay. But so did Green Bay, remember? Green Bay lost at Tampa in Josh Freeman's first ever start back on November 8th. But that seems like a distant memory even though it was just 1.5 months ago. Now what if the role was reversed and the opposite was fresh in our minds. What if Seattle had lost to Tampa Bay back on November 8th, and Green Bay just to a terrible Tampa team by double digits.
Timing is everything and this is just a phenomenal time to go with the Seahawks, as this is now the 4th time they are a double digit underdog and failed to cover the first 3 chances. Oddsmakers will help them from falling to 0-4 by raising their pay from 10 (the previous 3 times) to 14 here against a Packers team who's only 15+ point wins came over the Browns, Rams and Lions.
Green Bay 27, Seattle 21
JIM FEIST
NEW YORK JETS / INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
TAKE: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Do you think Mark Sanchez is going to stand in the way of an undefeated season? The Jets (7-7 SU/ATS) are riding a 4-7 SU/ATS run, but Sunday.5?s crushing 10-7 home loss to the Falcons probably sinks their playoff hopes. If that doesn.5?t, then a blowout loss by the Colts will. The defense is No. 1 in the NFL under new Coach Rex Ryan, but the problem is rookie QB Mark Sanchez (12 TDs, 20 INTs), who is just awful. Sanchez killed their hopes Sunday with 3 picks, losing even though the defense allowed just 238 total yards. They are conservative on offense; the defense has been improved with LB Bart Scott and Ryan, but the loss of NT Kris ******* (knee) for the year is a huge blow and is taking a toll: They allowed 139 yards rushing in a 24-22 home loss to Jacksonville, 123 against the Bills. They are first in rushing offense (160 ypg), the passing game is a lowly 28th in the NFL (160 ypg). The amazing Colts (14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) continue to roll, winning close games and blowouts. MVP-to-be QB Peyton Manning (33 TDs, 15 INTs, 4,213 yds) leads an offense that is No. 3 in the NFL, averaging 28 ppg. He has great targets in Reggie Wayne, TE Dallas Clark and Pierre Carcon. Manning had 327 and 4 TDs against the Patriots, threw for 299 yards against the Ravens, 244 against Houston and 303 in the comeback at Jacksonville. The ground game still struggles and the defense is dealing with a lot of injuries, but it doesn.5?t seem to matter. New defensive coordinator Larry Coyer has implemented a more aggressive scheme to take advantage of the Colts' speed. The defense is No. 15 overall. They.5?ve done all this despite a ton of injuries: WR Anthony Gonzalez, the team's No. 2 receiver, hurt his knee in the season opener and is expected back soon; Veteran place-kicker Adam Vinatieri will miss the next one to four weeks after undergoing knee surgery. The secondary has been hit hard, losing S Bob Sanders and CB Marlin Jackson for the season. Colts DE Keyunta Dawson injured a knee in the second quarter last week and did not return. The Colts aren.5?t talking about resting anyone, though they played most of the game with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis relegated to third-and-long situations. Indianapolis extended its NFL-record winning streak in the regular season to 23. Look for #24 today as they win and cover against the mistake-prone Jets
Bettorsworld
3* Ravens +3 over Steelers
Hope everyone had a great holiday. We'll be sending out some bowl plays this coming week and we are also really looking forward to this years NFL playoffs.
Wish we had more time to write up this Ravens play but we're under the gun here. We simply feel the Ravens are the better team here and the numbers both season to date and more specifically over the last 6 weeks show it. One team, the Ravens, is putting up playoff like numbers while the other, the Steelers, well, they aren't. Yards per point numbers for the Ravens over the last 6 weeks are 14.5 on offense and a whopping 22.9 on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers number offensively is 18.2 and defensively it's 14.
Yeah, when these two tangle it's always a war and the Steelers have had the upper hand at home going 8-2 at Heinz field but this Steelers team is not even on the same planet as Steelers teams of the past.
If you're a teaser player, consider using the Ravens as one of your teams today as well.
DUNKEL
Carolina at NY Giants
The Giants look to take advantage of a Carolina team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. New York is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7)
Game 103-104: Seattle at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.006; Green Bay 137.088
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10; 44
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 14; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+14); Over
Game 105-106: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 126.363; Cleveland 124.629
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 32
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 38
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3 1/2); Under
Game 107-108: Kansas City at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.234; Cincinnati 134.952
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 13; 40
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-13); Under
Game 109-110: Buffalo at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.866; Atlanta 15.166
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9; 41
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+9); Under
Game 111-112: Houston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.881; Miami 136.103
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Under
Game 113-114: Carolina at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 129.848; NY Giants 139.870
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 10; 46
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 42
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over
Game 115-116: Tampa Bay at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.806; New Orleans 141.190
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 14; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-14); Under
Game 117-118: Jacksonville at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 129.741; New England 140.658
Dunkel Line: New England by 11; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 7 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7 1/2); Over
Game 119-120: Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 132.959; Pittsburgh 132.563
Dunkel Line: Even; 46
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 42
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over
Game 121-122: Denver at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 131.520; Philadelphia 140.306
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 9; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-7); Over
Game 123-124: St. Louis at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 120.038; Arizona 135.891
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16; 40
Vegas Line: Arizona by 14; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-14); Under
Game 125-126: Detroit at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 117.164; San Francisco 132.087
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 15; 33
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 12; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-12); Under
Game 127-128: NY Jets at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.235; Indianapolis 143.727
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 8 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over
Game 129-130: Dallas at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 137.860; Washington 131.614
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+7); Over
MONDAY, DECEMBER 28
Game 131-132: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 140.093; Chicago 127.060
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over
NCAAF
Kentucky vs. Clemson
The Wildcats look to take advantage of a Clemson team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games versus the SEC. Kentucky is the pick (+7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Clemson favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+7 1/2)
Game 219-220: Kentucky vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 92.786; Clemson 95.196
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 2 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Clemson by 7 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (+7 1/2); Over
NBA
San Antonio at New York
The Knicks look to build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games against the Southwest Division. New York is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: New York (+2 1/2).
Game 501-502: Detroit at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 109.274; Toronto 120.566
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 11; 186
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 503-504: Indiana at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.137; Miami 123.667
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10 1/2; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 194
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Under
Game 505-506: Houston at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.256; Cleveland 127.145
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 193
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+8); Under
Game 507-508: San Antonio at New York
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 121.241; New York 120.950
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 198
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 196
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Dallas at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 120.142; Denver 122.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: Boston at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.614; LA Clippers 116.088
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NCAAB
Iona at Connecticut
The Gaels look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Iona is the pick (+16) according to Dunkel, which has Connecticut favored by only 15. Dunkel Pick: Iona (+16)
Game 513-514: Florida Atlantic at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 47.083; Maryland 71.032
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 24
Vegas Line: Maryland by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-20 1/2)
Game 515-516: Valparaiso at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 52.404; Akron 59.949
Dunkel Line: Akron by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Akron by 9
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+9)
Game 517-518: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 46.258; Washington 74.866
Dunkel Line: Washington by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 23
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-23)
Game 519-520: Illinois-Chicago at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois-Chicago 52.415; Wisconsin 72.020
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+20 1/2)
Game 521-522: Iona at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.830; Connecticut 72.724
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 15
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 16
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+16)
Game 523-524: Austin Peay at Missouri
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 53.058; Missouri 74.329
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 21 1/2
Vegas Line: Missouri by 20
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-20)
Game 525-526: Loyola Marymount at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 49.995; Sacramento State 47.235
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 3
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 5
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (+5)
NHL
Boston at Florida
The Bruins look to take advantage of a Florida team that is coming off a 4-1 loss against the Rangers and is 2-7 in their last 9 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Boston is the pick (-125) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125)
Game 51-52: Philadelphia at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.230; NY Islanders 10.700
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 4 12
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+100); Under
Game 53-54: Boston at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.597; Florida 11.302
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over
Game 55-56: Buffalo at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.716; St. Louis 11.587
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-110); Under
Game 57-58: Toronto at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.300; Pittsburgh 12.233
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-240); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-240); Over
Game 59-60: Nashville at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.657; Chicago 12.051
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-215); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+185); Over
Game 61-62: Vancouver at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.053; Calgary 12.496
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+120); Under