Ben BurnsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio vs. DallasFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams just faced each last week, at San Antonio. I won my "Personal Favorite" play on the Spurs in that game, part of my current 22-6 streak in the NBA. Popovich's crew cruised to a 129-91 victory.
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If only they were all that easy ...
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Anyway, I felt that the Mavericks were going to be a little "road weary" for that 12/23 game, heading into the Christmas break. They've had some more rest now though. They're back home and they're playing with recent "revenge." Playing their final game of 2012, I feel that they'll be motivated to deliver their best effort.
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The Mavs got blown out at Denver last time out, giving up 106 points. That was their first game back off a road trip and they were coming off a hard fought OT game vs. Oklahoma City the previous night. Tonight's scheduling situation is far more favorable. Note that the Mavs are still a healthy 7-3-1 ATS after allowing 105 or more points in their previous game.
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Unlike their hosts, the Spurs have another game left in 2012. They'll face Brooklyn tomorrow night. While it's typically been a strong spot for them in the past, note that the Spurs are 0-2 SU/ATS the last two times that they played the front end of back to back games, losing at Utah and Oklahoma City.
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I successfully played against the Spurs in that loss at OKC (Thunder won by 14) and I won't be surprised if they go down again here. Consider grabbing the points.
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St Louis vs. SeattleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 41½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Want all of Ray's Sunday-Tuesday plays in 1 nice little package hop on board his 3 day sports Insider-All-Access package. Just $89.95. *See below for details*. NFL 3-Pack up for Sunday too!
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If there is a hotter team in the NFL right now than the Russell Wilson led Seattle Seahawks I'd like to see them. 58 points 3 weeks ago vs. the Cardinals. 50 points vs. the Bills, 42 last week vs. the 49ers, and this week they still have the NFC west to play for - provided the Arizona Cardinals can do their part and knock off the 49ers at Candlestick.
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The Seattle defense won't allow many points but we see the Rams getting 10-14 on Sunday, since by halftime we forcast the two teams will know the fate of the NFC west. Russell Wilson has done his job, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,868 yards with 25 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. Wilson has been exceptional at home, passing for 1,254 yards with 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in seven wins.
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He'll come out guns firing in the first half to get Seattle a safe 2 TD lead. This is a payback game for the Seahawks since the Rams beat them in Week 4. Pete Carroll won't let his team forget that game. They'll take it to the Rams in Seattle. Seattle has won 13 of the past 15 meetings. Over is 7-3 in STL last 10 games in Week 17. Over is 15-5-1 in SEA last 21 games in December. Over is 19-7 in SEA last 26 games on fieldturf.
Dave Cokin
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Pick: Washington Redskins
The Cowboys have shown some late life, but this is still a team that has been finding ways to lose big games for several seasons now. Washington continues to roll and while I expect a closer game than these two played on Thanksgiving, I see the same winner. I'll spot the points with the Redskins.
SPORTS WAGERS
Northern Illinois +5 over WICHITA STATE
Wichita State comes in with an 11-1 record and they’re 6-0 at home. The Panthers of Northern Iowa are just 7-5 on the year and as a result of these respective records, the Shockers would appear to be a short price. Think again. These two are likely the best two clubs in the always competitive Missouri Valley. The Panthers got off to a bit of a slow start but pay no attention, as they played three games in the Bahamas (all losses) against three very good teams in the Battle of the Atlantis. They’ve been coming on since with four wins in six games, including an outstanding performance in win against the Gaels of St. Mary’s.
The Shockers come in banged up. Their best player Carl Hall is on the rack and so is Ron Baker, another key ingredient to the success of Wichita State. The Panthers play outstanding defense under the guidance of one of the best mid-major coaches in the country and not only can they stay in this range, they can win this one outright.
Pass NBA
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Green Bay -3.5 over MINNESOTA: The Vikings have had a good year, but it all comes to an end today as they may be playing the hottest team in football right now. The Packers come in rolling off a 55-7 win over Tennessee and their offense and I expect them to keep it going as they rev up for the playoffs. In this game there will be no resting of players because the Packers still have a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs. That give's them extra motivation in this one. The Viking offense is pretty one dimensional as they are 32nd in passing, but 4th in rushing. They are led by the best back in the league, but GreeN Bay is pretty decent vs the run, ranking 14th in that department. I look for the to take away Petersen in this one and try and make Ponder beat them. He has no shot at that. Minnesota just will not have enough offense in this one to keep the game close. Green bay should roll here. KEY TRENDS--- The Vikes are just 2-10 ATS in season finales and 0-9 ATS as division dogs of less than 7 points when playing off a pair of wins.
3 UNIT PLAYS
San Diego/ Oakland Under 39: The Raiders offense has been non-existent as they haven’t scored a TD since week 14 and have put up just 7 FG’s in their last 2 games. It doesn’t figure to get much better for them this week with Terrell Pryor, who is making his first career start, going up against a tough Chargers defense that is 11th overall and just sacked an inexperienced McElroy last week 11 times. This Raiders OL is pretty week and will have a tough time winning battles along the line vs the Chargers. Also the Raiders don’t have a running game to take the pressure off of Pryor, so I really look for the Raiders to struggle to score again. The Chargers offense has not been that good this year and with all the changes expected to come will probably be disinterested on that side of the ball. The Raiders defense has also played well of late, allowing just 16 points in their last 2 games. This game will be played in the low 30’s at best.
Cleveland/ Pittsburgh Under 34.5: Cleveland will be missing most of it’s key offensive personnel in this one and you have to think how will they score vs the number 1 defense in the league. I don’t see them getting much more than 10 points in this one. Pittsburgh will not be looking to go all out on offense after they were knocked out of the playoff chase last week. I look for them to be a bit flat on that side of the ball. The Cleveland defense has been struggling of late, but they did hold a more focused Pittsburgh offense to 14 points in the first meeting and should hold that unit down again. I look for this one to be played in the 20’s. KEY TRENDS--- Under is 20-5-2 in the Browns last 27 games in December, while the Under is 9-1 in the Steelers last 10 home games.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 62-36-2 and today I am playing the Chicago Bears on the road, minus the points, against the Detroit Lions. The Monsters of Midway desperately need a win if they want to stay in the playoff hunt. A win by the Bears coupled with a loss by the Minnesota Vikings would sneak them in as a wild card.
Chicago already knocked off the Lions, 13-7 back in late October, and I think the Bears are in a good spot to do it again, using its stingy defense the same way it did on Oct. 22, when the Bears forced four turnovers and limited all-Pro wide receiver Calvin Johnson to just three receptions for 34 yards.
And before we berate the Bears for their tailspin, make note they've lost to the likes of Houston, San Francisco, Seattle, Minnesota and Green Bay - all teams that will are in contention for, or are already in, the playoffs.
At 4-11, Detroit is thinking about the draft - it has to be. The Lions aren't going to send anyone out there to get hurt, and will be watching the clock to get off the field unscathed. Lay the chalk and do yourself a favor and buy the half point
2♦ CHICAGO
Chuck O'Brien
I'm on a 7-3 run with my NFL freebies, and today will look to improve on that mark with the Atlanta Falcons minus the points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in an NFC South clash in the Georgia Dome. In most instances we'd have to be leery about the Falcons in a situation like this - they have little to play for since they've clinched home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs - but according to coach Mike Smith, his starters have a full day ahead of them.
The Falcons (13-2) have lost three straight in the postseason, and the last thing Smith wants is his team going into the postseason on a damper. Remember, the Falcons were the NFC's top seed when they lost to Green Bay after the 2010 season. Then they lost embarrassingly in a 24-2 setback to the Giants in the Meadowlands during the 2011 playoffs. And with those two teams being the last two Super Bowl champs, the Falcons know the importance of riding momentum into the postseason.
This game should be easy for them get up for, as the Buccaneers have slipped tremendously since opening 6-4 and looking like they were going to be a surprise team out of the NFC. But they head into the Georgia Dome mired in a five-game slide that began with a one-point, home loss to these same Falcons.
Tampa comes in after a disappointing, 15-point loss to the St. Louis Rams and now must deal with a team that is looking to make a statement in the final week of the regular season.
And while the Bucs are mired in spread skids of 1-5 in the final week of the season, 0-4 in intraconference play and 2-7 in intradivision action, the Falcons soar in on ATS win streaks of 10-4 in December, 4-1 against NFC teams and 15-6 against losing teams.
Lay the chalk, and make sure you buy the half point down in this game.
3♦ ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the underdog Eagles as they play their arch-rival the Giants in this season finale from North Jersey.
True, Philadelphia has just one win their last ten games, but I certainly do not trust the Giants right now laying any kind of wood. New York has been outscored 67-14 the past two weeks, and have lost five of their last seven games both straight up and against the spread.
In all likelyhood this will be head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Michael Vick's last games with the Eagles, so why not look for a nice storyline here and look for Philadelphia to rally the charges for one last stand against a hated division rival?
Eagles are 8-1 straight up the last nine times the teams have met. Today we do not need an outright win, just a cover.
Take the Birds plus the points as both Reid and Vick save face before closing the doors on their Philadelphia careers.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the New Orleans Saints over Carolina in their final regular season game of the year.
Why the Saints? Because they are playing better of late, they just got word that HC Sean Payton, who will get to coach the team next year, signed a long extension with the team and will be there as soon as this season ends.
Drew Brees is getting some of his weapons back and healthy and they looked as good as they have all year in a 34-31 overtime win over Dallas last week.
The Saints biggest problem all season has been on the defensive side of the ball, but it's not like Carolina possesses the best of offenses and they clearly aren't consistent enough (especially on the road) to put much of a scare into the Saints today.
Now I will say this... if New Orleans can't run, they will struggle at times to move the football because they can't expect Brees to just drop back 60 times and win this game. They need to establish the run early, which will help Brees and the passing game do what they do best.
Carolina has struggled this year, but I will give them credit for their impressive win over the Chargers and how they've been able to compete with the Falcons.
There's no doubt they're capable of pulling the upset here, but there's too much positive emotion riding on the other side, and that will enable the Saints to win this game by at least a touchdown.
Take the Saints as your free play of the day.
2♦ NEW ORLEANS
Chris Jordan
My free pick for today is going to be on the Tennessee Titans, laying a very cheap number against the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars. It might be a throwaway game to some, but I think with pride somewhat on the line, I like the Titans to come away with a significant win.
Titans coach Mike Munchak hasn't had much to work with, but can finish the season 6-10 and on a winning note, with a sign of hope toward next season. I know the Titans are in after getting pummeled by Green Bay, 55-7, but the loss that is resonating eve more has to be the one from Nov. 25, when these same Jags won the first meeting, 24-19.
Jacksonville is 2-13 and has lost four straight since that win. And ranked 31st in the league in total offense, the Jags aren't going to be around long enough to keep up with the Titans.
Though Tennessee leads the regular season series 19-16, the Jaguars have won three of the last four meetings, including the aforementioned clash.
Jacksonville is mired in a 3-7 ATS slide in the month of December, and the struggle continues here as Tennessee is the better team.
1♦ TENNESSEE
Matt Rivers
Sunday NFL free play winner is the underdog Vikings at home against the visiting Packers.
Big time implications on the line in this one, as Minnesota needs a win to clinch a playoff spot, and of course the sub-story is Adrian Peterson's quest for the single-season rushing record. As for Green Bay, the need a win to clinch the overall #2 NFC seed and a playoff bye that comes along with it.
As hot as Green Bay has been - nine wins in their last ten games, including four straight wins and covers - it should be noted that three of the Pack's four losses on the season have come when they were on the road.
Minnesota has lost the last five series meetings, but the home team is on a 4-1 spread run the last five times these teams have played. The Vikings have been rock-solid at home this year, going 6-1 straight up, and they have gone a perfect 3-0 both straight up and against the spread when listed as a home underdog this season (wins over the 49ers, Lions, and Bears).
The Vikings just went on the road and held the Houston Texans without a touchdown on their home field, expect the Minny defense to be tough on Aaron Rodgers this afternoon.
Take Minnesota plus the points.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Sunday free play in the NFL is the Over in the Eagles-Giants game.
In what could very well be the last game Andy Reid coaches on the Philly sideline and the last game Mike Vick QB's in an Eagles uniform, look for the points to add up on the MetLife Stadium scoreboard.
The Giants need a win here and a ton of help to make it to the postseason, and with just 14 points scored their past pair of games, it is high-time Eli Manning gets this offense in gear. With the Philadelphia defense having allowed 30 points or better in five of their last seven games, there is a strong chance Eli rings the bell a few times in this one.
Philadelphia has played Overs in their last pair and four of their last five overall, so don't let the fact the G-Men have been Under in six of their last seven frighten you away from playing this one Over.
The last three series meetings between these NFC East rivals have held Low, but with the Giants trying to keep their playoff hopes alive, and with Reid and Vick likely playing their swan-song, I think we see a higher-scoring affair today.
Eagles-Giants Over the total.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA-N.Y. GIANTS OVER
Stephen Nover
St Louis +12
I'm a buyer with the Rams at this price. The Seahawks are playing great and are unbeaten at home. But the Seahawks already have clinched a playoff spot. The Seahawks have to know that the Cardinals aren't upsetting the 49ers in San Francisco so winning the NFC West Division isn't going to happen for them.
The Rams have a lot going for them in this matchups, too, and Jeff Fisher has them highly motivated to finish above .500 for the first time in nine years.
St. Louis has covered in each of its last six division games, including beating the Seahawks, 19-13, on Sept. 30. The Rams are 6-2 ATS versus foes with a winning record and 5-0 ATS during their last five away games. As a 'dog this season, the Rams are 10-3 ATS.
Fisher has made the Rams tougher both physically and mentally. The Rams have a very underrated defensive line with 46 sacks, which is third-highest in the NFL. St. Louis has limited four of its last five opponents to 17 points or fewer.
The line has climbed higher with the news that Seattle's star cornerback Richard Sherman won't be suspended. Sherman may be the finest cornerback, but Seattle still is thin at cornerback if Marcus Trufant and Walter Thurmond remain out. Trufant has missed the last four games while Thurmond has sat out the past two weeks.
The Seahawks have been fortunate to have played poor passing teams down the stretch. Seattle's last seven games have come against the Vikings, Jets, Dolphins, Bears, Cardinals, Bills and 49ers. Sam Bradford has been playing better for St. Louis as his offensive line has become more stable. Bradford has two-touchdown passing games during five of his last seven matchups.
Matt Fargo
Houston vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Indianapolis
Houston can grab the top seed in the AFC with a win at Indianapolis but the value is clearly on the Colts side here as two weeks ago, the Texans were favored by 10.5-points at home and now is favored by a touchdown on the road. Houston has a lot to play for while Indianapolis has nothing to play for. Don't think the Colts are going to hand this over to the Texans though by resting their starters in preparation for their playoff game next week. "We're going in to win," Colts interim head coach Bruce Arians told WNDE-AM in Indianapolis. "We gotta keep rising." Making this even bigger is the fact that Indianapolis want to gain some momentum after getting outgained badly in its last three games. And there is also the side story about head coach Chuck Pagano making his return to the team so the players would like nothing more than to reward him with a victory in his first game back. The Texans need to win to grab the top seed in the AFC which comes with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The linesmakers have adjusted the line because of this which is the case for most games that include a team in a must win situation late in the season. Houston started the season strong but it has been leaking oil of late with losses in two of its last three games and it has been outgained in four of its last five including 158 yards last week at home against Minnesota. The Texans could very well bounce back here but winning this big on the road against a very hungry team is simply too much to ask for.
Red Dog Sports
Wofford +9.5
This should be a low scoring game today. Virginia just lost to ODU and should beat Wofford but may be looking ahead to their next game, which is their ACC opener against UNC. UVA is led by Joe Harris, who should lead the way with about 14 points for the Cavaliers. They play great defense under coach Tony Bennett.
The Wofford Terriers have played some close low scoring games as well. They just lost to Xavier by one point.
This game could end 55-50 since we do have a total of 107 in this game.
Freddy Wills
Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: Indianapolis Colts
Texans have really struggled down the stretch going 14-55 on third downs on offense. Facing the Colts could brighten up their day, but the Colts would love to get a win against their division rivals here. I think the Colts will have a ton of inspiration on their sidelines with Chuck Pagano coming back making the difference. The Texans may be able to hold on with a win to earn a bye, but I think the game will be their for the Colts to win especially given how the Texans have played of late.