Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, December 4

DUNKEL INDEX

South Carolina at Clemson
The Gamecocks look to take advantage of a Clemson team that is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 Sunday games. South Carolina is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+10 1/2)

Game 841-842: New Mexico State at Southern Mississippi (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 63.481; Southern Mississippi 66.158
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 2 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 3; 145
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (+3); Under

Game 843-844: Akron at Middle Tennessee State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.683; Middle Tennessee State 66.709
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 9; 143
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 6 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-6 1/2); Over

Game 845-846: VCU at George Washington (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 61.873; George Washington 59.743
Dunkel Line: VCU by 2; 119
Vegas Line: George Washington by 1; 126
Dunkel Pick: VCU (+1); Under

Game 847-848: SMU at Arkansas-Little Rock (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 53.482; Arkansas-Little Rock 53.081
Dunkel Line: Even; 121
Vegas Line: SMU by 1 1/2; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+1 1/2); Over

Game 849-850: Bowling Green at Western Kentucky (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 53.526; Western Kentucky 47.933
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 5 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 3 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-3 1/2); Under

Game 851-852: South Carolina at Clemson (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 55.160; Clemson 63.230
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 8; 128
Vegas Line: Clemson by 10 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+10 1/2); Over

Game 853-854: UNLV at Wichita State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 68.857; Wichita State 73.543
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-2); Over

Game 855-856: Baylor at Northwestern (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 67.013; Northwestern 68.190
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 1; 135
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3; 137
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (+3); Under

Game 857-858: NC State at Stanford (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.558; Stanford 73.763
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 10; 135
Vegas Line: Stanford by 7 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-7 1/2); Under

Game 859-860: Notre Dame at Maryland (4:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 64.681; Maryland 62.008
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 2 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 1; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-1); Over

Game 861-862: California at San Diego State (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 67.502; San Diego State 65.403
Dunkel Line: California by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Pick; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California; Under

Game 863-864: Nebraska at Creighton (5:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 60.428; Creighton 71.302
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 11; 137
Vegas Line: Creighton by 8 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (-8 1/2); Over

Game 865-866: Kansas State at Virginia Tech (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 68.141; Virginia Tech 70.629
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 2 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 4 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+4 1/2); Under

Game 867-868: Mississippi at Penn State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 60.735; Penn State 59.451
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 2 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+1); Over

Game 871-872: North Texas at Loyola-Marymount (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 47.469; Loyola-Marymount 59.039
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 873-874: Rider at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 47.684; Marist 46.793
Dunkel Line: Rider by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Pick; 146
Dunkel Pick: Rider; Under

Game 875-876: St. Peter's at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 48.935; Manhattan 52.392
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 3 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 3; 121
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-3); Over

Game 877-878: Iona at Niagara (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 63.528; Niagara 52.053
Dunkel Line: Iona by 11 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Iona by 13 1/2; 157 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+13 1/2); Under

Game 879-880: Dayton at Murray State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 63.475; Murray State 63.938
Dunkel Line: Even; 137
Vegas Line: Murray State by 3; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (+3); Over

Game 881-882: Fairfield at Canisius (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 56.903; Canisius 49.136
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 6; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-6); Under

Game 883-884: Montana at Oregon State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 55.135; Oregon State 65.424
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 10 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-9 1/2); Over

Bobby Conn

NY Jets vs. Washington Redskins
Play: NY Jets -3

The Redskins are off a big win against the Seahawks but I can't see them pulling together two straight victories, especially against a step up in class here with the Jets. New York's defense is the second best in the league in my opinion and will make it tough for this Grossman led Redskin attack to move the pigskin. The Jet offense isn't going to scare anyone, but it's significantly better than Washington. Being better on both sides of the ball and playing a team already out of the playoff race makes me willing to lay a small wager on the Jets -3.

Carlo Campanella

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Chicago Bears -8

Chicago lost 25-20 at Oakland last Sunday, but they're still one of the hottest teams in the NFL, owning a 5-1 SU & ATS record during their last six games! For the third straight week the Bears face an opponent from the AFC West and expect them to rebound against the struggling Chiefs, who are now 0-2 while scoring a total of 12 points behind replacement QB Tyler Palko. Bear's RB Forte matches up extremely well against this Kansas City defense, ranked 28th in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 134 rushing yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. With the Bears dominating the line of scrimmage, clock and field position behind RB Forte, we're laying the points with this home Favorite as we find them at 16-5 ATS against AFC West division opponents, including a solid 31-20 win over San Diego two weeks ago.

Tradeline Sports

Raiders at Dolphins
Play: Over 42.5

Playing to the high side of the over - under on a team (Dolphins) that have covered ATS in four or five of their last six games (hot team) versus a team (Raiders) that have covered the ATS in five or six of their last seven games (hot team) when the oddsmakers open the total at 42 points or more has been an 81 percent proposition over the last five NFL campaigns. The trend is 68-15 over that span and is 1-0 this season.

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears
Play: 1st Half Chicago Bears -5

Backing home favorites (Bears) that have covered the ATS by 21 or more points in their last three games, in a non-conference affair, when the oddsmakers set the first half pointspread between 2 and 6 points has cashed at a 40-7 (85%) clip over the last 10 NFL campaigns and the bias is a 100 percent perfect 5-0 this season.

Hollywood Sports

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

The opportunity to take three touchdowns with an underdog is too valuable to not take advantage of in a game where New England (8-3) will probably call off the proverbial dogs pretty early. With Tom Brady's various nagging injuries including rumored tendonitis in his right elbow, the Patriots will likely take their foot off the pedal and cruise to victory. New England has failed to cover the spread in 13 of their last 16 home games of more than ten points. The Colts, on the other hand, have covered 10 of their last 13 games as an underdog of more than 10 points. And while the Patriots are 4-1 at home this season, Indy is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. There are just too many ways for the Colts to stay within this huge number. Take the points with Indy.

Sam Martin

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

We backed the New England Patriots last week in their big win over Philadelphia, stating the linesmakers aren't giving enough credit to the Pats during their recent winning streak. Now the linesmakers are giving way too much credit to the Pats here, installing them as a huge 20-point favorite against the Colts. That is a huge overlay on a team that is in a bit of a letdown spot after three big victories and who won't care much about this game against a winless Colts team, especially with back-to-back road games on deck. Colts surely won't win this game outright, but can stay within three touchdowns. 5* Play on Indianapolis.

Gridiron Gold Sheet

Lions / Saints Over 53

The Lions offense is 6th in the NFL. The Lions play against the Saints' high-powered offense and this defense gave up 35 points to Carolina two weeks ago, and three weeks ago, losing 37-13 at Chicago. The Over is 41-22-2 in the Lions last 65 games. The Saints have fast wide outs and a wide-open spread offense, led by QB Drew Brees plus a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram. This passing offense is No. 2 in the NFL. Think Brees is ready for the playoffs? New Orleans had a 26-23 OT win at Atlanta two weeks ago, winning despite allowing 481 yards (138 rushing). So the Lions should be able to move the ball on the Saints. The over is 27-10-1 in the Saints last 38 games following an ATS win. Don’t look for either defense to play well, indoors on artificial carpet, which favors these passing attacks. Take the OVER.

Stephen Nover

Raiders vs. Dolphins
Play: Under 43

Since Chad Henne lost a high-scoring passing duel against Tom Brady in Week 1, the Dolphins have yet to go over the total.

Look for Miami's under streak to continue in this matchup.

Miami is strong against the run holding foes to 3.5 yards per carry in its last seven games and has tightened its pass defense. The Dolphins are giving an average of just 10 points in their last four games holding Buffalo and Dallas to a combined two touchdowns during their past two games.

Oakland is potentially explosive - when it has all of its key skill position players healthy. That's not the case. Darren McFadden is out again. So is speedster Jacoby Ford. Denarius Moore is slowed by a foot injury and underachieving Darrius Heyward-Bey hasn't had more than 45 receiving yards since Week 7.

Carson Palmer has displayed good arm strength, but is still learning the playbook. The Raiders' timing could be thrown off, too, venturing from one coast to the other and playing at an early start time for them.

The Dolphins don't figure to put up many points either. They are a run-first team and have a journeyman at quarterback in Matt Moore.

The Raiders have the fifth-most sacks in the league. One of Moore's many shortcomings is he gets rattled under pressure He's committed six turnovers in four games versus opponents ranked in the top 10 in sacks compared to losing the ball three times in four games against foes not ranked in the top 10 in getting to the quarterback.

The Raiders can be run on, but the Dolphins lack an outstanding running back. Miami's best wideout is Brandon Marshall, who the Raiders are well acquainted with from Marshall's four years with division rival Denver.

Both team's starting kickers are banged-up, too. The Raiders have a tremendous defensive weapon in punter Shane Lechler, whose 80-yard punt last week was one of the keys in the Raiders' beating Chicago.

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +127 over N.Y. Jets

Give Mark Sanchez a lot of time against poor defenses and he can find his way to some wins, despite some bumps along the way. Against quality teams, you can ”fa ged a boud it”. New York’s only win against a winning team was a fluky victory in opening week over the Cowboys. The Jets offer up very little as road chalk, as evidenced by their 1-4 road record. That effort against Denver two weeks ago was disgraceful and last week’s win over the Bills wasn’t much better. The Redskins are a sub .500 squad but some of their offensive players have returned from injury and the team may have found in a runner in Roy Helu. Washington’s defense remains solid and is more than capable of bothering Sanchez all day. Keep the points. Play: Washington +127 (Risking 2 units).

HOUSTON +129 over Atlanta

We understand that the Texans are forced to start rookie T.J. Yates but c’mon now, should Atlanta really be favored as the visitor here? That’s fundamentally wrong and that forces us to do the right thing. For the first time in their history, the Texans can taste the playoffs. They aren’t about to let that opportunity slip way. The Texans defense will dig down deep here in support of their third string QB and try to give him a great opportunity to lead his team to victory. The Falcons are a winning team but they rarely have an easy time of it. Houston has a solid defense, a dynamic running attack and they’re at home. That’s more than enough to stay close to an unassertive Atlanta bunch that has covered just two of past eight as chalk. Atlanta hasn’t been right all season long and its 7-4 record is more impressive on paper than it is on the gridiron. The Falcons have had an easy schedule but just one easy win over Indy back in early November. Wrong side favored. Play: Houston +129 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +6½ over Baltimore

Time and time again we’ve seen the Ravens come up with a stinker after a big win. We knew defeating San Francisco on Thanksgiving was a big win when the team poured Gatorade over its coach in Week 11 of a 16-game schedule. Perhaps they poured the energy drink over John Harbaugh after both wins against Pittsburgh only to be followed by losses to the Titans and Seahawks respectively. Or to the Jaguars after knocking off Houston. You get our drift. The Browns fit right in except that Cleveland can play some defense while the offence is showing signs of improvement. Ravens three road wins this season have cone against Titans, Jaguars and Seachickens. Expect a close one. Play: Cleveland +6½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA –1 over Denver

An above .500 Broncos team facing a limited 2-9 Minnesota team without Adrian Peterson, yet the Vikings are favored? Seems odd, no? Sometimes the line itself tells us whom to bet on and that’s precisely the case here. The Denver Broncos simply cannot keep winning running a college offense with Tim Tebow at QB. In the NFL, you’re only as good as your QB. Name any team in your head, then name the QB and that’s how good, bad or average the team is. Minnesota’s weakness is in stopping the pass and Denver can’t throw the ball. Broncos are coming off another unlikely win in San Diego and their bubble is going to burst with a huge bang. You can’t keep winning in this league passing for 50 yards a game and that’s all there is to it. Play: Minnesota –1 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

MIAMI –3 +106 over Oakland

This is the time of year that the true colors of teams come out. Bad teams are exposed, good teams step it up and elite teams take care if business. Why is a team that sits five games below .500 made a 3-pt choice over a squad that is currently three games above it? Perhaps won-loss records are the only stat where Oakland actually tops Miami? Raiders are another one of those imposter teams while the Dolphins are better than their record indicates. One could argue that Miami has looked razor sharp for a month now and that includes its impressive showing in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. Fish have had 10 days to prepare against a weak Raiders defense while Dolphins’ defense is solid and that’s enough to fade the visitor here. Play: Miami –3 (Risking 2 units).

Tennessee +2½ over BUFFALO

Hard to rely on the Bills as a favorite these days with their cluster of key injuries and their inability to stop their opposition. Buffalo’s current four-game losing streak has them being outscored 134-50. Prefer taking points with Bills under current physical and mental makeup and last week’s loss to Jets with big chance to win may have taken steam right out of Bisons. Play: Tennessee +2½ (No bets).

CHICAGO –7 over Kansas City

Todd Haley repeats that Tyler Palko remains the starting quarterback and that Kyle Orton has to win the job but he already has by virtue of being named Kyle Orton and not Tyler Palko. After two starts, Palko has thrown for no touchdowns and six interceptions so we’re not really buying what Haley is saying. So, thanks for the audition kid, don't call us, we'll call you. The loss in Oakland ended a five game winning streak for Chicago, where four of the weeks featured 30+ points scored by the Bears. They may need to score half that here to get the cover. That game against the Steelers reminded us of a big brother yawning and bracing his outstretched palm against little brothers head, while little brother just flails away without a prayer of ever landing a punch. Play Chicago –7 (No bets).

Cincinnati +6½ over PITTSBURGH

Despite considerable injuries, the Steelers must trot their wounded stars onto the field in order to remain in the hunt. That makes it difficult to be offering generous points within its division, against a Bengals team that hung in with them a few weeks ago, and typically plays Pittsburgh tough. Play: Cincinnati +6½ (No bets).

TAMPA BAY –3½ over Carolina

This one is more of a process of elimination, as Carolina is a worse option than the Bucs. Panthers impressed early with Cam Newton. What that accomplished was to set unrealistic expectations. They went all Prince Charming on the first date and now we’re expecting a dozen roses, a box of fine chocolates, and a limo ride every time out. But all the Panthers have delivered is a faded plastic gravesite bouquet, stale candy corn, and a ride to hell in a stinky cab. Tampa is home for only the second time in seven weeks, including a trip overseas and that figures to have them revved up for this divisional opponent. The Panthers are abysmal against the run and that should have LeGarrette Blount rambling over people most of the afternoon. Play: Tampa Bay –3½ (No bets).

Detroit +9 over NEW ORLEANS

Had this game been played prior to Detroit’s humiliating loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving and before the Saints’ Monday night romp over the Giants, this line would have been six or so. Recent recall in the minds of bettors inflates this price and that offers us value on this offensively potent puppy. Play: Detroit +9 (No bets).

St. Louis +13½ over SAN FRANCISCO

A low over/under total with a big point-spread usually bodes well for the underdog and we’ll lean that way here despite the overwhelming negatives cast upon the Rams. The Niners have all but locked up the NFC West and there is no need for them to lean heavily on the gas pedal right now. Play: St. Louis +13½ (No bets).

Arizona +5 over DALLAS

Cowboys haven’t won a road game this season by more than three points and this one may not be as easy as it looks. The Cardinals have held three of past four opponents to 20 points or less and now return home after pair on the road. Kevin Kolb should be back at QB for host and that can’t hurt. Play Arizona +5 (No bets).

N.Y. Giants +7 over GREEN BAY

We almost feel foolish fading the Packers. They keep winning. They keep covering. Now they square off against a Giants team, playing on a short week after being humiliated by the Saints on Monday night. But Giants’ backs are to the wall and we expect them to put up a fight here. Also note that whole world is on easy looking game and that’s the biggest red flag of them all. It’s almost as if the books are “taking a position” here. Play: N.Y. Giants +7 (No bets).

Indianapolis +20½ over NEW ENGLAND

In his first start for the Colts, (thanks Coach) Dan Orlovsky will try to keep within three touchdowns of Indy’s longstanding rival. While this one doesn’t have its usual hype, the visitor won’t lay down while Belichick could very well sit some Patriots late, allowing Indy to come in through a wide-open back door. Play: Indianapolis +20½ (No bets).

Nelly

Cleveland + over Baltimore

The Browns were in a great position for a key win last week but a ten-point lead was blown late in the game. The defense really played well most of the way and is currently the top pass defense in the league. Baltimore got a huge Thanksgiving win and has some extra time to prepare for this first meeting of the season but the Ravens have been shaky on the road this year with a couple of ugly losses in Seattle and Jacksonville. Baltimore’s defense has had lapses this year and Joe Flacco continues to be very inconsistent. The Browns lack a strong record or an ideal offense but they will be tough to blow out given the quality defense and Baltimore will have a hard time pulling away in this game.

Marc Lawrence

Kansas City Chiefs at Chicago Bears
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

Like an ex-husband returning home to see the kids for the first time, Kyle Orton makes his return to Chicago wearing a Kansas City uniform this Sunday. Handed his divorce papers by the Bears in 2009, Orton is back on a field where he was 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS as a starter in Chicago. Meanwhile, his Chiefs are badly in need of an offensive infusion, having scored 10 or fewer points in each of their last four games while managing ONE touchdown in the process and they'll need to accomplish that in our post-Tomlin role today (although it?s favorites that tend to struggle most in this situation). The good news, however, is KC is 10-1 ATS as a dog off a loss versus an opponent off a loss. They are also 3-1 ATS on this field. Ironically, Orton would look good again in a Bears uniform these days with Chicago starter Jay Cutler out with thumb surgery and inexperienced Caleb Hanie filling his shoes. Assuming the price is right, look for Orton to improve to 4-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points here today in this Father Knows Best re-run. We recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Charlie Scott

Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans
Play: Atlanta Falcons -1

The Falcons are a pretty well balanced playoff contender who has won 5 of their last 6 games s/u. Due to injuries, 3rd string rookie QB TJ Yates will be making his first start in the NFL. While playing in College at North Carolina Yates struggled at times making poor decisions passing the ball. Yates will struggle Today vs the Falcons ! I would expect this to be a close game if the Texans had Schaub at QB, with Yates, Expect a Falcon Win & Cover !

Tradeline Sports

Raiders / Dolphins Over 42.5

Playing to the high side of the over - under on a team (Dolphins) that have covered ATS in four or five of their last six games (hot team) versus a team (Raiders) that have covered the ATS in five or six of their last seven games (hot team) when the oddsmakers open the total at 42 points or more has been an 81 percent proposition over the last five NFL campaigns. The trend is 68-15 over that span and is 1-0 this season.

Chicago Bears 1st Half -5

One of the more interesting trends comes in the form of a first half proposition, in a game that will sport two back-up quarterbacks. Backing home favorites (Bears) that have covered the ATS by 21 or more points in their last three games, in a non-conference affair, when the oddsmakers set the first half pointspread between 2 and 6 points has cashed at a 40-7 (85%) clip over the last 10 NFL campaigns and the bias is a 100 percent perfect 5-0 this season.

Scott Rickenbach

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
PICK: Indianapolis Colts +22

The Patriots, off of a big win at Philly last week, come into this week's action as a huge 3 TD favorite over the Colts. While one can understand a big spread being placed on this match-up, there is a difference between big and too big and, simply put, this one falls into the latter category! The Pats are only 3-5 ATS the last three seasons when they are favored by 10 points or more. Off of a big road win over the team that was once tabbed "The Dream Team" and with another road game on deck, this could be a definite flat spot for the Patriots. Look for New England to do just enough to win but not enough to cover. Note that the Pats have no real incentive to run up the score here and, even though the Colts are 0-11 on the season, Indianapolis has only lost three games this season by a margin of more than 17 points. Their other 8 games have been decided by an average margin of just 9 points per defeat. The Colts can hang tough here and improve to 8-3 ATS the last three seasons combined when they are facing a winning team in the second half of a season. Indy's offense moved the ball a little better in last week's loss and the Patriots defense continues to have issues in the secondary. That also offers "back door cover" potential - if needed - in this one. Either way, it's certainly worth considering a small play on Indianapolis plus the big points on Sunday afternoon.