Sean Murphy
Kansas City Chiefs @ Chicago Bears
PICK: Chicago Bears -7
The Chiefs are the perfect example of a team simply playing out the string. Coming off back-to-back primetime losses against the Patriots and Steelers, I have a hard time envisioning them getting back up for this trip to Chicago.
Kansas City has scored a grand total of 25 points in its last four games. By contrast, even without QB Jay Cutler, and in spite of an off day from RB Matt Forte, the Bears still managed to score 20 points last Sunday in Oakland.
While I'm not the biggest supporter of Cutler's replacement, Caleb Hanie, I do believe he can keep the Bears afloat down the stretch. Unlike last week, when his team fell behind early, he won't be asked to do too much against the Chiefs.
Keep in mind, Hanie did manage to throw for 250+ yards in his first start of the season, and he did so in a hostile environment in Oakland. The problem was, he also threw three interceptions. I expect him to take better care of the football this week.
Some teams are crippled when their starting QB goes down, and while the Bears looked a little out of sorts last week, I don't think they'll stay down for long. That's because this is a team fueled by its defense and special teams, and one that can lean on an exceptional ground game.
We might see the Bears a little slow out of the gate following last week's loss, but I think it's only a matter of time before Chicago wears down a rather unmotivated Chiefs squad on Sunday afternoon. No surprise if the Bears are able to stretch the margin to double-digits before it's all said and done.
Black Widow
1* Atlanta Falcons -1
The Atlanta Falcons get the call Sunday as they take on the Houston Texans on the road. Atlanta has a lot of factors working in their favor here that lead me to believe they are going to leave Houston with a victory. The Texans are down to third-string quarterback T.J. Yates, a rookie from North Carolina. Matt Shaub is out for the season, and backup Matt Leinart suffered a broken collarbone in the first half of their 20-13 win at Jacksonville last week. The Texans only managed 47 total yards and two first downs in the second half with Yates running the show. Obviously, Houston is going to have to rely on their rushing attack Sunday, which has been one of the best in the league. But Atlanta has the answer for it with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Falcons rank 2nd in the league against the run while allowing only 83.5 rushing yards/game. Offensively, Atlanta is expected to get back star rookie receiver Julio Jones, and Michael Turner is also probable with a groin injury. The Falcons have won five of their last six, and they are simply rolling right now. They come into this game in better form than Houston, which should prove to be the difference. Matt Ryan will make a lot more play than Yates here. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Jack Jones
Ravens/Browns Under 38½
All signs point towards a defensive battle Sunday between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. These teams feature two of the best defenses in the league, and points will be very hard to come by. Three of the last four meetings in this series have seen 37 or less combined points, with a high of 41.
Cleveland has struggled all season offensively. They rank just 28th in the league in total offense (295.9 yards/game) while scoring only 15.0 points/game, including 13.2 points/game at home. What has kept the Browns competitive is a stop unit that ranks 6th in the NFL in total defense (313.4 yards/game), while also allowing 19.6 points/game.
Baltimore continues to have one of the best defenses year in and year out. That has been the case again this season as they are 3rd in total defense (292.3 yards/game), giving up just 16.5 points/game. Their offense is improved this year, but it still ranks on the bottom half of the league. The Ravens are 17th in total offense (335.6 yards/game).
This play falls into a system that is 40-14 (74.1%) to the UNDER over the last 10 seasons. It tells us to bet the UNDER on home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CLEVELAND) - after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games, in the second half of the season.
Cleveland is 16-5 to the UNDER in their last 21 home games after having lost 4 out of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 27-13 to the UNDER in their last 40 games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games. The UNDER is 4-1 in Browns last 5 home games. The UNDER is 19-7-2 in Browns last 28 games in December. The UNDER is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cleveland. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
James Patrick Sports
Cowboys vs. Cardinals
“Totals” trends indicate “over” when Dallas travels to Glendale for a matchup against host Arizona on Sunday afternoon. These two have gone “over” in their last two meetings in the desert, and both have tended to trend that way the past couple of years. The Dallas Cowboys, the most overrated team in all of sports, are “over” at a (8-3) ATS rate in their last eleven away, while the Red Birds have flown “over” at a a (5-1) clip their last six at home. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection is NFL action is on Dallas - Arizona Over the Total.
Steve Janus
Buccaneers -1
The Buccaneers come into this game riding a five game losing streak, but have started to play better the last couple of weeks. They hung in there with Green Bay till the final minutes and had a lead late against the Titans last week. The Panthers are a big favorite of the public, despite the fact that they have won just three games all season. With this low spread, my money is on Tampa Bay to find a way to snap their skid and cover the spread.
Some people might be worried about locking on the Bucs with Josh Freeman listed on the injury report, but this is one game where Tampa Bay doesn't need Freeman to win the game. The Panthers have the 28th ranked run defense in the NFL, allowing 137.5 ypg. In their three previous losses they gave up 132 to Minnesota, 172 to Tennessee, and 169 to Detroit. Tampa Bay's LaGarrette Blount has been waiting to explode, and I believe he dominates this game and carries the Bucs to a win.
The Buccaneers have already beat division rivals Atlanta and New Orleans at home this season, and I look for them to continue that trend with a big win on Sunday. Carolina is just 1-4 on the road this season, with the only win coming last week at winless Indianapolis.
Tampa Bay is 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC South, while Carolina is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. BET THE BUCCANEERS -1!
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Falcons -1.5
This is a bad match up for the Texans who have major problems at the quarterback position now that Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart are both out for the season due to injuries. Atlanta will have a huge advantage at the quarterback position with Matt Ryan going against Houston's rookie TJ Yates. The Texans will go with a conservative game plan like they did in the second half of last week's game at Jacksonville. The problem is that even though the Texans have a great running game, the Falcons have the second best rushing defense in the league and you can be sure the will load up the box and dare the rookie to throw. After a slow start to the season Atlanta has won five out of their last six games and I look for them to keep rolling against the Texans. Lay the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
SAN FRANCISCO -13.5 Over St Louis: The Niners are off their first ATS loss of the year and they have had extra time to prepare for this one. The Rams are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs the NFC and just 2-10 in their last 12 games overall. St Louis is just 1-4 SU on the road this year, with their only win being vs lowly Cleveland, while their have been outscored by 16.5 ppg in their 4 losses. St Louis has averaged just 10.4 ppg on the road this year and that won't get it done, especially when you're gonna take on a very tough defense like the Niners. San Francisco comes in ranked 7th in the league in total defense (316.7 ypg), 1st in rushing defense (75.5 ypg) and 1st in points allowed (14.6 ppg). The Niners have also allowed just 14 ppg and 312 ypg at home. I just don't see how this pathetic Rams attack will score. Last week the Rams defense allowed 268 yards rushing to a weak Arizona ground attack and they are last in rushing defense overall, so I do not look for them to be able to stop this San Fran power running game that is 7th in the league at 128.7 ypg. The edges that the Niners have on both sides of the ball are just too big to think that St Louis will be able to keep it close.Niners by 20+
4 UNIT PLAY
POWER SYSTEM PLAY
Buffalo/ Tennessee Over 43: Granted the Bills have a lot of injuries, but they aren't all on the offense as the defense has had their fair share as well. With the loss of Fred Jackson, the Buffalo offense showed last week that it must open up the playbook and they did it well by putting up 24 points and 250 yards passing vs a very good Jets defense. Today they will be facing an improving Tennessee defense, but one that is still average at best. Tennessee is 13th vs the pass this year, allowing 229.1 ypg, and they have allowed just 14.1 ppg in their last 3 games, but they haven't faced really good offenses in that stretch. I expect the Bills to put up some points on them in this one. The Tennessee offense is in the bottom 3rd of the league overall, but they have been better of late putting up 23.3 ppg and 344 ypg in their last 3 games, plus they have put up 138 ypg on the ground in that stretch. The Buffalo defense has been bad all year as they are 22nd overall (367 ypg) and 28th in points allowed (25.5 ppg). The bills struggle vs both pass (22) and run (21) and that will spell trouble vs a Tennessee offense that has been pretty balanced of late. This game has the potential of hitting 50 points. POWER SYSTEM FOR THE PLAY--- the Over is 26-5, the last 5 years, when the Home team is off BB division losses.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Houston Under 38: Last week Houston really struggled on offense with out Schaub and I feel that they will really rely on their run game in this one and that will eat plenty of clock. Houston is 3rd in the league in rushing, putting up 151.7 ypg , but they may not get a lot of big runs, Atlanta is 2nd in the league vs the run, allowing just 83.5 ypg. That should put Houston in a lot of 2nd or 3rd an longs and that is not the nspot that you want young Tyler Yates to be in. I don't really expect Houston to take alot of chances on offense as they know that their defense is one of the best and will keep them in this one the whole way. Houston is 1st in total defense, 2nd vs the pass, 4th vss the run and 2nd in points allowed. This is a complete defense That will most likely be called upon the rest of the year if they expect to win the AFC South. Atlanta is not an explosive offense and they do rely more of the run so that will help chew up the clock here. I really expect the Houston offense to struggle, but I also expect their defense to keep them in it. I looking for a game of no more than 27 points here.
Green Bay/ Giants Over 53: The Packers offense has been something special this year and they should be fresh for this one after playing 10 days ago. The Pack enters this game 4th in offense overall and 3rd in passing, while the have scored 34.7 ppg. Last week the Giants played another good offense in the Saints and they allowed 372 yards through the air and 49 points. The Giant defense has been a problem for them all year as they are 26th vs the pass this year and 28th overall, while allowing 25.2 ppg (27th). The Giants couldn't stop the Saints attack and they surely won't be able to stop this one either. On offense the Giant running game has been non-existent (last in league) and it has prompted Eli to throw the ball all over the field and he has done it well as the Giants are 4th in the league in passing. Green Bay has not had a championship defense this year as they are 30th overall and 31st vs the pass and to make matters worse in this one is that they will be without AJ Hawk. Neither team can run the ball, both teams can pass and neither team defends the pass well. Sound like a recipe for a 60 point game.
2 UNIT PLAY
Tennessee +2 over BUFFALO: The Bills are dealing with a ton of injuries right now and they are off an emotional loss to division rival NY Jets. This is a tough spot for this team as they must now take on a very physical Tennessee team that appears to be getting strong and I titans team that knows if they keep wining the just may catch a Houston team that has all sorts of QB issues right now. I just don't see Buffalo hanging here, especially as we note that Home teams with a line of +3 to -3 are just 5-26 ATS if they allowed 5.5 yards passing per play in their last game and their opponents gained 5.5 yards per passing play in their last game. Titans take this one.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Washington/ Jets Under 38.5: The Washington offense has not been that strong all year and they come in averaging just 16.6 ppg overall and 13.5 ppg in their last 5 games. The Jets has been pretty good, especially vs the pass where they are 7th in the league. That's ok Washington can really pass and so to the ground they go. The jets can be run on and the Skins will look to exploit that. The Skins defense has been better than average this year, while the Jets offense lacks punch. No more than 34 in this one.
San Francisco/ St Louis Under 38: A pathetic St Louis offense will not score more than 7 points ves this tough Niner defense. San Fran's ground game should have a field day vs the worst rush defense in the league and that will chew up plenty of clock. Look for about 31 points in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Chicago Bears
Play: Kansas City Chiefs +7
The Chiefs fit a nice system Im tracking the past several years that plays on non division dogs from +7 to +10, if both teams come in off non divisional losses. These dogs are 35-9 ats. The Chiefs have K. Orton here facing his former team. KC is a solid 13-0 ats off a non division loss vs an opponent off a loss and have covered 3 of 4 as a dog in this range and 5 of 6 on the road when the total is 35.5 to 38. When they have played winning teams they have covered 3 of this season. The Bears have failed in 3 of 4 spread tries as a home favorite from -3.5 to -7 and that was with Cutlter in the game. Look for the Chiefs to cover today.
Steve Merril
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5
This line too low, especially now that it has dropped below the key number of '7' at many sportsbooks and there is excellent value with the Steelers at home laying just -6.5 points, especially since they were a 4-point road favorite at Cincinnati just two games ago and won outright 24-17. The Steelers dominated that game by more than the seven point margin and close yardage indicated as my re-scoring model using the drive charts had Pittsburgh winning the game by 12 points. Many people wrote the Steelers off after a mediocre 2-2 (1-3 ATS) start to the season, but this is still the defending AFC champions and they are still one of the best teams in the league. Pittsburgh has since gone 6-1 SU in their past seven games and the main reason has been less turnovers. Pittsburgh is still -9 this season, but they have begun to improve with a +2 turnover margin the past six games, compared to a -11 margin in the first five games of the season. Pittsburgh is a solid team on both sides of the ball and they have out-gained 9 of their 11 opponents this season and the only two games in which the Steelers did not hold the overall yardage edge was on the road versus solid Houston and Baltimore squads. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been good against bad teams, but Cincinnati has struggled when stepping up in class. In fact, the Bengals are 1-4 SU versus winning teams this season, while going 6-0 SU versus .500 or less opponents. Cincinnati is a mediocre team on both sides of the ball and their biggest weakness this season has been a sub-par pass defense that allows 6.3 yards per pass (versus opponents that average just 6.1 ypp). This will be a problem versus a strong Pittsburgh passing attack that is averaging 7.5 yards per pass this season (versus opponents that allow just 6.6 ypp). Pittsburgh is the better team on both sides of the ball today and the Steelers present solid value at home laying -6.5 or less.
Ray Monohan
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +6.5
Cincinnati (7-4) snapped a two-game skid in a 23-20 win at home over Cleveland, and even though some sportsbook reviews may suggest that the Bengals should have had this game in the bag, you can never count out any team in a rivalry game as Cleveland gave them all they could handle and more. The Bengals are 2-3 SU and ATS in their last five trips to Pittsburgh, with three games falling under the posted total. The Week 10 win for the Steelers was sparked by turnovers as they picked off Dalton twice, and Polamalu had a great game with six tackles, including two for losses. With his presence in the lineup, Pittsburgh is allowed to do different things with their blitz packages and without him, they run more of a base system. They’re going to have their hands full with the Bengals, who may be the biggest surprise in the NFL outside of San Francisco. Troy is a gametime decision.
Charlie Scott
Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans
Play: Atlanta Falcons -1
Here's the Play I used in the Las Vegas Review Journal for Sunday's Hot Corner. The Falcons are a pretty well balanced playoff contender who has won 5 of their last 6 games s/u. Due to injuries, 3rd string rookie QB TJ Yates will be making his first start in the NFL. While playing in College at North Carolina Yates struggled at times making poor decisions passing the ball. Yates will struggle Today vs the Falcons ! I would expect this to be a close game if the Texans had Schaub at QB, with Yates, Expect a Falcon Win & Cover !
Craig Trapp
Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Tennessee Titans +3
Wrong team favored here as the Titans are just a much better team both offensively and defensively. This Bill team has lost 4 straight, inability to run the ball lately has put way to much pressure on Fitzpatrick. On the other side Bill's defense is not getting the to's like they did early in the season and that will kill them on Sunday. Titans have turned the season around and now Johnson is getting rolling. Watch out this one wins straight out,.
Black Widow
1* Atlanta Falcons -1
The Atlanta Falcons get the call Sunday as they take on the Houston Texans on the road. Atlanta has a lot of factors working in their favor here that lead me to believe they are going to leave Houston with a victory. The Texans are down to third-string quarterback T.J. Yates, a rookie from North Carolina. Matt Shaub is out for the season, and backup Matt Leinart suffered a broken collarbone in the first half of their 20-13 win at Jacksonville last week. The Texans only managed 47 total yards and two first downs in the second half with Yates running the show. Obviously, Houston is going to have to rely on their rushing attack Sunday, which has been one of the best in the league. But Atlanta has the answer for it with one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Falcons rank 2nd in the league against the run while allowing only 83.5 rushing yards/game. Offensively, Atlanta is expected to get back star rookie receiver Julio Jones, and Michael Turner is also probable with a groin injury. The Falcons have won five of their last six, and they are simply rolling right now. They come into this game in better form than Houston, which should prove to be the difference. Matt Ryan will make a lot more play than Yates here. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Texans are 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) versus good rushing defenses - allowing <=90 rushing yards/game since 1992. Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Tennessee Titans +3
The Bills have lost 4 in a row, and I expect them to keep sliding. The offense hasn't been the same since losing RB Fred Jackson. With Jackson, Buffalo was one of the top rushing teams in the league. Without him, it has only managed 41 and 86 rushing yards respectively the last 2 games. He also meant a lot to the passing game.
The Buffalo defense has struggled all season. It ranks 22nd in the league in total defense with 367.5 yards allowed per game and 28th in scoring defense with 25.5 points allowed per contest. The Bills have allowed 9 of their 11 opponents to rush for at least 108 yards. Expect them to have trouble slowing down Chris Johnson and a Tennessee rushing attack that has found some life in recent weeks. The Titans rushed for 202 yards in last week's win over Tampa Bay and have averaged 138.3 yards on the ground in their last three games.
Tennessee is an impressive 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in its previous game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 contests vs. a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. They are also 5-2 ATS in their last 7 against the Bills. We'll take the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit Atlanta Falcons -1
With Schaub and Leinart both out, the Texans will be forced to rely heavily on their running game. That doesn't bode well for them here as they go up against an Atlanta stop unit ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run with 83.5 yards allowed per game. The Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite. We'll take the Falcons.