Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Carolina Panthers +2.5
The Bucs are turning the ball over at an alarming rate (15 times in last 5 games), and they haven't been able to stop anyone (29.2 ppg allowed & 399.6 ypg allowed last 5 games). As a result, they have lost 5 in a row by an average of 12 points. I don't see their misery coming to and end this week as they go up against an explosive Carolina offense ranked 5th in the league with 398.5 yards per game. Tampa is a lousy 5-14 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, losing these contests by an average score of 24.7 to 18.1. Also, the Panthers are 12-5-2 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 3.0 points or less. Bet Carolina.
Joseph D'Amico
South Carolina vs. Clemson
Play; Clemson -10½
For starters, there is no love lost between these two schools. During football season, the Gamecock's usually have their way with the Tiger's. Clemson has won and covered 6 of the L7 meetings over South Carolina in hoops. It seems that these two squads are going in opposite directions as Clemson won their L2 by 10 and 16 points while South Carolina lost their L3 by 25, 3, and 9. The Tigers shot "lights-out" in their 71-55 win at Iowa on Tuesday. They were 11 for 21 beyond the arc and 51.9% from the floor. South Carolina has been "manhandled" this season with a 2-5 SU and 1-5 ATS record , including losses to Elon and Tennessee State. The favorite in this series is 6-0 ATS their L6 meetings. The Gamecock's are 0-5 ATS their L5 non-Conference games, 1-7 ATS their L8 games played vs. the ACC, and 1-5 ATS their L6 games played on the road. Take Clemson.
Larry Ness
Cowboys at Cardinals
Pick: Over
The Dallas Cowboys were 2-3 after Week 6 and in all three losses, had given away leads (at the Jets, home to the Lions and at the Pats). When the Eagles ‘spanked’ them 34-7 on a Sunday night game in Week 8, few thought much of Dallas’ chances the rest of the season. However, the Cowboys have won FOUR in a row since that Sunday night disaster (are now 7-4), climbing to the top of the NFC East. The Eagles have implodes (4-8) and with the Giants losing three in a row to fall to 6-5 (plus find themselves hosting the 11-0 Packers late this afternoon), the Cowboys all of a sudden could be two games up in the division by beating the 4-7 Cardinals in this one. Dallas has taken advantage of a fairly ‘soft’ schedule to win four straight (Seattle, Washington, Buffalo and Miami) and the last thing they need to do now is take the Cardinals lightly. Romo is completing 68.0 percent for 266.8 YPG with 10 TDs and only two INTs in the team’s four-game winning streak (Cowboys have outscored opponents 114-63) but the insertion of DeMarco Murray into the starting backfield, may be as big a reason for the Cowboys’ turnaround as Romo’s improved play. The rookie from Oklahoma had just 73 yards rushing through the team's first five games but set a Dallas single-game record with 253 yards rushing in the team’s Week 7 win over the Rams and has gone on to run for 761 his last six games (126.8 YPG). Speaking of breakout rushing performances, Arizona’s Beannie Wells (hampered by injuries in his first one-plus years in the league), set a Cardinals franchise record with 228 yards rushing last Sunday (also against the Rams). Kevin Kolb has NOT been the QB the Cardinals had hoped he’d be but his return is likely here and there can be little doubt that’s he WAY better than John Skelton, who has seven INTs in his three starts, including five in his last two games (in just 42 attempts). The Cards have played just four home games this year, so that means they finish with FOUR of their final five in Phoenix. Expect a spirited effort here vs the Cowboys, always a hated-rival, as the teams played in the same division until 2002’s realignment. Note that the Cards actually outplayed the Giants when they visited Phoenix back in Week 4, although they wound up losing 31-27. When the Steelers came to town in Week 7, the final was 32-20, Pittsburgh. Those two games averaged 55.0 PPG and I see this game in the 50s as well, so go over!
Jim Feist
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Titans (6-5 SU/5-5-1 ATS) have a new look with QB Matt Hasselbeck (16 TDs, 8 INTs) and new coach Mike Munchak. RB Chris Johnson has been awful since signing the big contract, as they are last in rushing in the NFL, 12th in passing yards (260 pg) so Hasselbeck is carrying the offense. The good news is that Hasselbeck is back from a sprained elbow two weeks ago, a 23-17 loss at Atlanta, and threw for 160 yards in Sunday’s 23-17 win over Tampa Bay. And better yet, RB Johnson was sensational with 190 yards, 8.3 ypc. Is he finally back? They’ve already lost star WR Kenny Britt (knee) for the season, a huge blow. Although the run game is struggling, Munchak said he has no plans to make changes to the offensive line. RB Johnson had his first impact game of the season three weeks ago with 130 yards in a 30-3 win at Carolina. Defensive coordinator Jerry Gray has been decent at installing game plans and they did a terrific job taking away Carolina’s air attack. But they have struggled against running teams, losing 41-7 at home to Houston. Houston outgained the Titans 518-148! The Titans are one of the most penalized teams in the league under this first-year coach. The run defense allowed 163 yards in the opener, but only 45 (2.6 ypc) to the Ravens, 59 to Denver and 84 to the Browns, 174 yards to the Steelers, 222 to Houston, and 116 to Atlanta, 122 to Tampa Bay. The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog, 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Slumping Buffalo is home after a 3-game road trip. The banged up Bills (5-6 SU/5-5-1 ATS) had a hot start but their defensive deficiencies have come to the surface, riding a 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS run. The offense is good with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (19 TDs, 14 INTs) and great weapons in WR Stevie Johnson, though RB Fred Jackson is out for the season and WR Johnson (shoulder) has been limited in practice. RB Jackson accounts for 40 percent of the Bills’ offense. His 1,376 yards from scrimmage rank second in the NFL to Chicago’s Matt Forte RB C.J. Spiller is being asked to step up in the backfield. Spiller, the No. 9 overall pick in the 2010 draft, has been relegated to bit-part status in the Bills’ attack — until now. He has spent most of the past five games at receiver. Buffalo showed plenty of game Sunday in a 28-24 loss at the NY Jets, allowing a late TD then failing to score while driving to the NY 26. At least QB Fitzpatrick was impressive, with 3 TDs, no picks and 264 yards. The previous three were ugly, a 27-11 home loss to the Jets, a 44-7 loss at Dallas and a 35-8 loss at Miami with only 247 total yards. The offense is carrying the team, so they can struggle against strong defensive teams. Buffalo now has 16 interceptions — 5 more than it had all last year, but that’s the only thing the defense can boast about. While he may not have high sack totals, Gailey said rookie Marcell Dareus is playing well. The second defensive player taken off the draft board last April, Dareus has 29 tackles and 3.5 sacks. The Bills do not play that many high-powered offenses over the rest of their schedule. In fact, 4 of the Bills’ next 5 opponents have offenses that rank 16th or worse in the league. All summer long, Bills coach Chan Gailey talked about how he wanted his team to be bigger and more physical. The Bills are 12-8-2 ATS in their last 20 games overall. I'm laying the short price here on Sunday with the Bills at home.
JR O'Donnell
Mississippi +1
Tonight's game has the Rebels of Ole Miss on the road to the deep mountains of central Pennsylvania to meet the Penn St Nittany Lions of PSU. Ole Miss is 6-1, while PSU is 4-2, but the Lions have absolutely no quality wins which is huge here boys, and their losses are to Kentucky by 39 and St Joes by "18". On the flip side Ole Mississippi has beaten Miami in OT and won in a close game at a young but improving DePaul. This is a PSU team in transition, with a new coach, new system, and having trouble scoring as they are #285th in putting points on the board. They also have shot only 38% (323rd) against a relatively easy schedule. The Miss Rebels score more (67.4 PPG), are 24th in the nation on the glass & shoot 42% from the field. They are deeper, stronger and more experienced from a 22+ win team. Lines makers have this one way off....
John Ryan
Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans
Play: Houston Texans
5* graded play on Houston as they take on Atlanta set to start at 1:00 PM ET. The one thing that Houston truly does well is run the ball in a powerful and pounding fashion. Houston ranks third in the NFL running the ball and the two teams ahead of them, Philadelphia, and Denver, are NOT traditional fundamentally sound power running schemes. So, I see Houston as the dominant urning team in the NFL and it will be featured against the Falcons in this game. The Falcons rank second defending the run, but that is more reflective of a weak secondary that opposing offenses have attacked and exploited. Moreover, Houston has two running backs in Arian Foster and Ben Tate, who are on track to both have 1000 yards rushing for the season. Houston has a top-5 overall defense and since Wade Phillips has come in as defensive coordinator, Houston loves to bring pressure from all directions and angles and Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is just not mobile enough to extend the play and make plays. Moreover, we have seen defensive units, whose offensive unit have been decimated at quarterback and running back, raise their level of play to even greater levels. Houston’s defense will play a very strong game today. Atlanta’s running game will not be at 100% with Michael Turner nursing a goring injury. One strong hit or a aggressive cutback can aggravate that injury and he may be largely ineffective in this game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has gone 40-18 ATS since 1983. Play on dogs or pick after beating the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games and is a good team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and playing a team with a winning record. I like Houston to win this game easily.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Baylor +3 over Northwestern: The Wildcats, winners of five in a row at home, have dropped 12 consecutive matchups versus ranked opponents by an average of 12.5 points. They have been held to 39.8 percent shooting and outrebounded 422-310 during that skid. That is not good news for the Cats as they come in ranked 310th in rebounding (31.4 rpg), while the much taller Baylor Bears come in ranked 26th in rebounding (40.8 rpg). Both of these teams can score but the Bears play much better defense and the Cats just don't have the size to matchup with this team, plus Baylor is likely to be at full strength for the first time this season with prized freshman Quincy Miller expected to be active. The 6-foot-9 forward, averaging 15.2 points and 5.6 rebounds, was held out Tuesday after rolling his left ankle in practice last weekend. This is a legit top 10 team and they will pass their first real test of the season with the outright win here.
3 UNIT PLAY
POWER ANGLE PLAY
St Peter's/ Manhattan Under 121.5: Manhattan has played a few higher scoring games, but those were on the road as their home games have averaged just 105 ppg thus far and we also note that the OU is 1-9 when they are a home fav or pick over the last 3 season and the OU is 2-10 when they are home off a road game. The Jaspers have scored 65.9 ppg, but they are 309th in the nation in shooting (38.8%) and they have shot just 30.1 % at home this year. St Peter's has played very good defense this year as they have held teams to just 60.7 ppg (59th) and 43% shooting overall. St Peter's has played a few higher scoring road games, but we also note that the OU is 1-10 when they are on the road off 1 or more wins (avg scored 114.9 ppg) and the OU is 3-14 when they are off BB covers (avg scored 119 ppg). St Peter's has averaged just 58.3 ppg on just 39% shooting and while the Jaspers have allowed 69.4 ppg on the year they have allowed teams to shoot for just 40.9%. Neither team is above 30% from long range and both teams have allowed 33% or less from beyond the Arc. This will not be a faced paced game and I Expect neither team to hit the 60 point mark in this one. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play the Under when a home team is off an upset win as a dog if they return 2 or more starters from last year than their opponents and the OU line is 120 to 129.5. This play is 30-9 the last 5 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
UNLV +2.5 over WICHITA STATE:The Shocker are a very good team this year and they will be in the thick of the MVC race all year long, but they will be in a stiff test vs the undefeated Rebels today. Wichita State is holding opponents to just 54.3 pg and 35.5% shooting in three home games this seasob but slowing don the Rebels offense won't be easy. The Rebels are averaging 83.3 ppg and have reached the 90 point mark in 4 games and the next time they do that it will be the firs6t time since 2001-2002. The Defense overall is pretty even in this one, but the Rebels have a solid offensive edge and they have a slight edge on the boards so I look for them to win a close one here. KEY TREND--- UNLV is 31-8 ATS in road games with a line of +3 to -3, since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
Notre Dame -1 over Maryland: The Irish are not a team that beats them selves as they have committed just 11.2 TO's per game (T-15th), while Maryland has grabbed just 12.2 TO's per game and they have just 23 steals through 6 games. Both teams are very young, but ND has a bit better depth and the overall better talent in this one. Look for the Irish to pull out a close one in the end.
OC Dooley
Chiefs / Bears Over 37
There is a strong chance that newly signed quarterback Kyle Orton will make his debut in a Kansas City uniform as he took 40% of the snaps with the first-team in practice. This is the same Orton who started his career playing in Chicago for four seasons, once leading them to the Super Bowl. His mere presence is a much needed jolt for a Kansas City offense that in the past four weeks combined has produced a grand total of just 25 points. The Chiefs have been riddled by injury this season which has already seen lead quarterback Matt Cassel and running back Jamaal Charles go down for the count. The Chicago attack also is recovering from a major quarterback injury as the keys to the offense has for the moment been handed to Caleb Hanie who tossed 3 interceptions along in the opening half one week ago. However he did gain confidence in the fourth quarter last Sunday completing 10-of-18 passes for 175 yards. Today the strong-armed Hanie will oppose a Kansas City defense ranked way down at #23 in the league surrendering on average 24 points per game. Even though the Chiefs defense put up a brave effort this past Sunday Night against Pittsburgh, the line has created just ONE sack in the past four games combined. My database research indicates that road teams like Kansas City after being held to 14-or-less points in the prior game have played OVER the total (between 35’ and 42 points) at a 65% clip the past five years (98-55). Dating all the way back to the 1992 campaign when Kansas City has been held “below” the number in 3 consecutive games, the Chiefs are a resounding 13-4 OVER the total on the ROAD
Bob Balfe
Falcons -1.5 over Texans
Sometimes its easy to out think yourself. Matt Ryan vs. TJ Yates. I will take my chances with Matt Ryan as he is light years better than the rookie Yates. Yes, the Texans have a good running game, but Atlanta can really pin their ears back and focus on stopping it. Yes, the Texans have a great defense, but the Falcons have so many weapons on offense. How can you stop all of them? The Falcons are looking to get into the playoffs. The Texans are not as desperate. Yates and this offense did nothing in the second half against the Jaguars which is not encouraging. This team needs to find a solid veteran or they will be bounced in the first round. Take the Falcons