Wunderdog
Minnesota at Arizona
Pick: Arizona +3.5
Minnesota is overrated. More on this in a minute. The good news for the Cards is that the status of Kurt Warner, who sat out last week's game with a concussion, is listed as probable for this big game vs. Minnesota. Arizona gets a lot of ink regarding Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin and their play-making offense, but the defense has done some catching up. The yardage numbers aren't pretty as they rank No. 24 in yards allowed, but the one that counts the most is points allowed, where they are No. 13. They have only allowed two teams to score more than 21 points in nine games this season. Arizona has been a hot team and are 6-2 in their last eight and really should be 7-1 if not for the old "prevent defense" and a lot of bad luck that allowed Tennessee to march 99 yards for the winning score as time ran out last week. This team has taken on the "big game" philosophy as they really seem to be at their best as a FG favorite or less, or as a dog at home where they have cashed eight of their last ten. They show up most in the biggest games as tehyh are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games vs. teams at .750 or better. Over the past three seasons, they are 9-1 ATS vs. teams like Minnesota that outscore their opponents by 6+ ppg. The Vikings have been living on home cooking, and believe it or not, have not played on the road in over a month. They have had three straight at home after their bye week, so this will be their first time on the road since November 1, and should find the going a lot more difficult. They have had road tilts vs. St. Louis, Detroit and Cleveland, and this one will be different without the home fans pumping them up. In their only real road test this year (vs. Pitt), the Vikes suffered their lone defeat of the season. Back to the fact that Minnesota is overrated. This is a good team, but not as good as it may appear on the surface. Minnesota has had the pleasure of feasting on the easiest schedule inthe NFL. They have played Cleveland, Detroit (twice), St. Louis, Seattle, San Francisco and Chicago. Their opponents for 2009 went just .420 last season and this season they are holding form. The Vikes have played just three winning teams all year and two of those teams (Pitt and Balt) are barely above .500. On top of all that, this team has had an inordinate amount of luck. Their best players have remained healthy, and they are +8 in turnovers (ranked in the top 5 in the NFL). When/if that luck evens out, this team won't look as powerful as they have. Finally, Arizona is 8-1 ATS at home the past three seasons when coming off a loss. I like Arizona plus the points here in a game that, with a healthy Warner, they can win outright.
Norm Hitzges
Double Plays
Dallas -2.5 vs NYG
Denver -5 vs KC
New England -4 vs Miami
Green Bay -3 vs Baltimore
Single Plays
Tennessee +6.5 vs Indy
Houston pk vs Jacksonville
Philly -5 vs Atlanta
San Diego -13 vs Cleveland
Pittsburgh -13.5 vs Oakland
Carolina/Tampa Under 40
Indy/Tennessee Under 47
Vegas Vic
FALCONS (+5) over Eagles
Took the bundle with the Redskins last week and got the cover, and while 5 ain't quite as big a bundle, Vic is buying the home team. However, we're expecting a similar scenario, where the Birds win, but just by a fingernail. So you're questioning my mental capability picking the Falcons without their fabulous young QB, Matt Ryan? Understood. Chris Redman, the backup, who had a superb career at Louisville, stepped in for Ryan in the first quarter of Sunday's game against Tampa Bay, and hit on 23 of 41 for 243 yards and two touchdowns. Not too shabby for a No. 2. Then there's Atlanta's record at home the last 2 years, which is sitting at a very healthy 12-1. Kinda tough to buck that number. But because of the questionable status of RB Michael Turner, we'll keep this selection on the light side.
Titans (+7) over COLTS
What do you do when you're 11-0 and have clinched the AFC South and a spot in the playoffs? We'll find out Sunday. Don't think that Indy will start resting players just yet, but they can't possibly bring the same intensity Sunday as they did for the last three games (New England, Baltimore and Houston). Now the Horseshoes have to deal with a Tennessee team that has absolutely no resemblance to the team they beat in Nashville in October, 31-9. Since the bye, the Titans have rocked with a perfect 5-0 straight-up mark, and 4-1 against the spread. Vince Young has been a revelation, while all Chris Johnson has done is lead the entire NFL in rushing, with 1,396 yards. Since Jeff Fisher's kids have covered five of the last seven against the Colts and have a boatload of confidence, they should be able to get another spread W inside the Lucas Oil barn.
STEELERS (-14) over Raiders
Big Ben is back, and boy does Pittsburgh need him now. The Steelers have dropped three in a row, which happens about as often as Tiger Woods ... oh, never mind. They have not dropped four in a row since the 2003 season, and it ain't gonna happen here. The Steelers are 10-1 in their last 11 at home, while Oakland has covered only three of its last nine. Feeling a big, fat bagel for the Silver & Black, with Pitt dropping a 24 spot on the visitors.
REDSKINS (+10) over Saints
If Sean Payton can get his players back at a fever pitch only 6 days after smothering the Patriots in a game that everyone acknowledged was a huge statement, then he is the best coach in the NFL. And I'll never doubt New Orleans again. But we feel that double digits is worth a shot. Washington is on a 3-0 spread roll, and has won 10 of the last 13 against the Saints, including an impressive 19-14 victory in D.C. last season.
PACKERS (-3) over Ravens.
Really like what Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have done since the bye week, winning five of seven, straight up and against the spread. And if we're talking defense, most people would think Baltimore, but under defensive coordinator Dom Capers, Green Bay has allowed a league-low 281.5 yards per game. Don't forget that Ravens QB Joe Flacco is still fighting a sprained ankle, which is why Baltimore has averaged only 14.5 points the last four games.
GIANTS (+2) over Cowboys
Despite the recent tumble (losing five of the last six), the New Yorkers always are ready for the hated invaders from the Big D, covering four of the last five games at home against the 'Boys.
BROWNS (+13) over Chargers
San Diego is coming off two big division wins (32-3 over Denver and 43-14 over KC) and is flying to Dallas next week. How could the Lightning Bolts possibly be interested in this game? They can't, but will still win by 10.
CHIEFS (+5) over Broncos
KC has won five of the last six at home against Denver, so we like the 'dog.
Texans (Pick) over JAGUARS
Houston has covered 11 of the last 15 against Jax, so we'll open the wallet, but just a hair.
BENGALS (-13) over Lions
Since Detroit has won only two of its last 25, Cincy looks pretty solid, but the number is huge, so stay light.
Buccaneers (+6) over PANTHERS
If Carolina is gonna roll with Matt Moore in his first NFL start, we gotta tickle Tampa.
BEARS (-9) over Rams
Chicago is desperate for a win, and St. Louis just happens to be coming to town.
SEAHAWKS (Pick) over 49ers
Seattle has covered five of the last seven at home, while SF has won only four of the last 15 on the road.
CARDINALS (+4) over Vikings
Looks as if Kurt Warner is a go after the concussion, and that will make all the difference.
Patriots (-3) over DOLPHINS
Just got word that Tom Brady is questionable, so this pick could become iffy by game time.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
Even with Kurt Warner under center, the Cardinals stand little chance here. Their pass defense ranks near the bottom of the league, which is not good news when facing Brett Favre (24 TD passes vs. 3 INT's). If they try and overcompensate, RB Peterson will run them over. Minnesota won on this field last year by a score of 35-14 and that was with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. They outrushed the Cardinals by 196 yards in that game.
Play on: Minnesota
Matt Fargo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina?s season pretty much came to an end last week in New York with that loss to the Jets. The Panthers season was disappointing from the start as it got out of the gates 0-3 before trying to put a run together but it was really too late by then even though the season was just getting started. The play of quarterback Jake Delhomme was a real problem early on and he settled down some prior to last week but against the Jets he was a turnover machine once again. Some of that may had to do with a broken finger that will keep him out this week. Matt Moore will be making his first start since 2007 while DeAngelo Williams is questionable and his absence would hurt the offense even more. This team has pretty much tossed it in for the season after coming in with such high expectations. The Buccaneers are having a worse season at 1-10 but this team is not giving up and still playing extremely hard. Tampa Bat nearly picked up its second win of the season last week in Atlanta and three of the last four weeks have been very competitive games with one of those resulting in a win. Since Josh Freeman was put in at quarterback, new life has come into the offense. He has a 76.5 passer rating which is not bad for a rookie following his best game of the season last week against the Falcons where he posted a 118.5 rating. Carolina does have a better defense than Atlanta does but the Buccaneers have the edge of seeing Carolina for the3 second time. Tampa Bay played very well against the Atlanta rushing attack last week and it can carry that over into this one as it is no secret that the Panthers are going to run the ball no matter who is in the backfield. Since head coach Raheem Morris took over the defensive play calling, the Buccaneers have brought back the Cover 2 defense as their base scheme and last week they brought a lot of pressure with a variety of blitzes and stunts up front. On the other side, the Buccaneers need to establish a running game as well and should be able to against the Panthers who are allowing 131.5 ypg on the ground which is 26th in the NFL. Tampa Bay falls into a simple but effective situation. Play on road teams in the second half of the season after one or more consecutive wins against the spread while possessing a winning percentage on the season of .250 or less. This situation is 29-5 ATS (85.3 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential coming in at lass that a field goal. Carolina is 8-18 ATS under head coach John Fox in games following two or more consecutive losses while the Buccaneers come in a solid 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. 3* Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marc Lawrence
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs return home to host division rival Denver in the first of three straight home games knowing they are 15-1 SU in Arrowhead in December in this series. They are also 19-3 ATS mark as home dogs of four or more points against foes with at least one loss on their ledger. That and a sparkling 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS log in division games against an opponent off a SU underdog win and spread cover of 20 or more points in its last game. Meanwhile, Denver snapped a 0-4 SU and ATS losing slide with its Turkey Day surprise over the Giants. Tie that with the fact that teams off a Thanksgiving Day win as a dog are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS away in their next game ? along with Denver?s 1-9 ATS mark in December off a double-digit spread win ? and we?ll put on the war paint in Arrowhead today.
Tom Freese
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Prediction: San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 7-2-3 ATS their last 12 games overall and they and they are 3-0-2 ATS their last 5 road games. The 49'ers are 5-1-2 ATS their last 8 NFC games and they are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a completion percentage of better than 61% in the second half of the season. Seattle is 7-21 ATS off a win by 10 points or more vs. a Division rival and they are 0-6 ATS as an underdog this year. The Seahawks are 2-10 ATS off a straight up win and they are 0-6 ATS after allowing more than 350 yards in their last game. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO -
TEDDY COVERS
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons
PICK: Philadelphia Eagles -5
To call the Falcons an injury riddled mess right now would be an understatement. They’ve already lost their two most important defensive players for the season– run stuffing nose tackle Jeria Perry and shutdown cornerback Brian Williams. Starting offensive tackle Sam Baker is hurt as is starting guard Harvey Dahl, leaving their offensive line in shambles. Quarterback Matt Ryan has a sprained toe, keeping him out of action this week. Star running back Michael Turner aggravated his sprained ankle; also out of action here. The Falcons have lost four of their last six, beating only the lowly Bucs and Redskins (a combined 4-18 this season); not exactly a juggernaut that is clicking on all cylinders.
The Eagles defensive gameplan is all about aggressive blitzing to create sacks and turnovers. That gameplan should work wonders against a banged up offensive line, running back and quarterback. Meanwhile, Philly’s offensive gameplan is all about creating big plays with their passing game. Again, this is a matchup that works in the Eagles favor against an Atlanta secondary that is largely devoid of playmakers. With SU road wins at Carolina, Washington and Chicago already this year, look for the Eagles to keep their division title hopes alive while sending the Falcons wild card hopes reeling. 2* Take Philadelphia.
ALEX SMART
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
PICK: New England Patriots -3
Without a doubt, the Patriots have one of the best offenses in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is throwing lasers all over the field, as he has thrown for 3,286 yards and 20 TDs this year. He is almost certainly headed to another 4,000+ yard and 25+ TD campaign. One glance at New England's offensive numbers shows an incredibly impressive team. The Pats rank #2 in the NFL at 411.5 yards per game, and second in passing at 297.0 yards per game. Their 27.9 points per game is good enough for fourth in the league. But take a look at what the Patriots have done on enemy soil this year. Discounting the Bucs game in England, HC Bill Belichick's squad is only averaging 19.3 points per game on the road this year, and it is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as well. Granted, a road slate consisting of the Jets, Broncos, Colts, and Saints is anything but fun, but this is still a team that has yet to prove that it can win on the road in this season.
The entire season will be on the line for HC Tony Sparano and his Dolphins on Sunday. Last week's 31-14 loss in Buffalo really put a damper on Miami's playoff hopes, especially with the remaining five games of the schedule all coming against some of the elite teams in the AFC. It's difficult to see how 9-7 would be good enough to get the Fins into the playoffs anyway, but a trip up against New England will require them to win at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, home against Houston, and home against Pittsburgh to have any hope of qualifying for the second season. RB Ricky Williams is doing his part even though his fellow backfield mate RB Ronnie Brown is out for the season. Williams has had three straight 100+ yard games for the Dolphins to lead the #3 rushing attack in the NFL. He has eight total TDs in his L/6 games.
Miami is still famous for shocking the Patriots when it debuted the Wildcat. However, New England rolled to a 48-28 victory in the return game later in '08, and stomped Miami 27-17 at home earlier this year. The line in this game may be dropping like a rock, but look for Brady and the boys to exorcise those road demons and put away the Fins for good.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
PICK: Under 47
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":
Is there any team in the league not living up to its potential more than the Houston Texans?
After plummeting from 5-3 to 5-6, and after last week's collapse at home to the Colts, Houston is on the ropes.
Matt Schaub was 14-of-17 for 152 yards and a TD in the first half when the Texans led the Colts 20-7. He was 17-of-25 for 132 yards and a TD in the second half when the Texans were outscored 28-7. He threw two INT's and lost his first fumble of the season. Andre Johnson should have caught a TD pass, and they settled for a FG.
They limited Peyton Manning to 244 yards, Reggie Wayne to three catches for 17 yards and Dallas Clark to an average of 7 yards a catch.
Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in six of Houston's last eight overall and in four of its last five on the road.
On the other side of the field: The losses by Houston and Miami, plus Baltimore's victory over Pittsburgh, means the Jaguars are tied for the second wildcard spot at 6-5 -- one game ahead of Houston and Miami (the Jaguars' next two opponents), the Jets and Titans.
With no margin for error, and with home field advantage, and behind a steady-dose of Maurice-Jones-Drew I expect Jacksonville to rebound from their last poor showing.
Remember, these teams always play each other tight; the total has gone under the posted number in four of Jacksonville's last six games when playing at home against Houston.
Bottom line: Worth taking a look at the "under" in this situation.
Scott Rickenbach
San Diego Chargers @ Cleveland Browns
PICK: Cleveland Browns +14
The Browns certainly fit the bill as an “ugly” dog. As painful as it seem to invest in Cleveland here, note that their defense did play decent in holding Cincinnati to just 16 points and 306 yards last week. The Browns got the cash as a result and they can do so again here. The Chargers, after hammering the Chiefs in San Diego last week, now have to travel to what is likely to be a chilly Cleveland and the Chargers have a big game on deck at Dallas. How can they not look ahead to facing the Cowboys when they’re playing a 1-10 Cleveland team? The answer is they can not!
Look for the Chargers to have trouble in this “sandwich spot”. They are off of a big home win last week and now are on the road facing one of the NFL’s worst while having one of the NFC’s best (Dallas) on deck. The Chargers blowout win over the Chiefs last week was helped by four Kansas City turnovers. The week before that, when San Diego blew out Denver, the Chargers were helped by three Broncos turnovers. The point is that the blowout wins of the last couple weeks for San Diego are helping to give us solid line value here! The Browns last two losses have come by a total of just ten points and yet they’re a bigger dog than that in this one even though they are now back at home! Early forecasts call for temperatures near freezing with a chance of snow showers in Cleveland. That will not sit well with the boys from sunny southern California and that turns this into a battle all game long! Consider a small play on Cleveland plus the big points on Sunday.
Hollywood Sports
San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Prediction: San Diego Chargers
The San Diego Chargers (8-3) are on a roll having won six games in a row on the heels of their 43-14 dismantling of the Chiefs last week. Quarterback Philip Rivers has raised his level play even higher as he has been at least 75% efficient in his passing in each of his last three games. Now the Chargers travel to Cleveland to face the woeful Browns -- and Norv Turner-coached teams have covered in 12 of the last 14 games in the weekend following the Thanksgiving weekend. Not only did the Browns lose to the Bengals by a 16-7 score last week but, unfortunately, they also lost their best defensive player in DE Shaun Rogers to a season-ending ankle injury. Cleveland is just 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games at home. This season, they are scoring less than 11 PPG and under 250 total YPG on their home field. The Browns' offense will likely continue to struggle against a Chargers' defensive unit that holds their opponents to under 20 PPG and under 320 total YPG. The Chargers' offense averages 28.4 PPG and should have little trouble moving up and down the field against a Browns' unit that allows 24.5 PPG. Cleveland ranks 31st in the NFL by allowing 393.3 total YPG while also ranking 29th in the league against the rush by allowing 160.5 YPG. San Diego's momentum typically sustains itself from week-to-week as they have covered in their last four games coming off a win. Despite the Browns being a big underdog, they remain a bad proposition as they have covered only once in their last five games as a home underdog of 10.5 or more points. Lay the points with the Chargers.
Vernon Croy
Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Detroit Lions +13
We are getting very good value here Sunday afternoon with the Lions who keep improving week after week. The Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after a double digit loss at home and if they can win the turnover battle they could pull off the upset on the road Sunday. Detroit lost by 22 points at home to the Packers last week because they turned the ball over 5 times but I look for them to take better care of the ball this week. The Bengals have only out-scored their opponents by an average of 3 ppg over their last 3 games and barely got by a very bad Browns team winning 16-7 at home last week. The Lions have showed potential every week despite turnovers and I look for them to hang around in this game as 13 point underdogs. Take the Detroit Lions as my NFL Free Play for Sunday afternoon.
Joseph D'Amico
Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Minnesota Vikings -3
Cardinal's QB Kurt Warner is questionable Sunday. Wheteher he plays or not, it won't matter. Minnesota is on-fire. Their only loss was 5 weeks ago to Pitt when Brett Favre made 2 costly errors late in the game. Since then, they have won and covered 4 straight, laying DD's in 3 of those contests. The combination of QB Brett Favre(69.2% comp. rate, 24 TD's, and just 3 INT's) and RB Adrian Peterson(1090 YR and 12 TD's) is fatal for any defense in the league. The team is averaging 31.1 PPG while their "D" led by DE Jared Allen is holding teams to just 18.5 PPG. Arizona is a respectable team but hasn't had to face a team of Minny's calibre since their Week 3 loss to Indy. The Viking's are 6-2 ATS their L8 over the Cardinal's, 5-0-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC. and 5-1 ATS their L6 on the road. Minnesota wins and covers.
Black Widow
1* on New England Patriots -5
The Patriots are always a great team to back coming off a loss, and they'll destroy the Dolphins on the road Sunday after getting embarrassed on Monday Night Football against the Saints last week. The Patriots are 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992. New England is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) after allowing 30 points or more last game since 1992. The Patriots are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Miami has not looked good since losing Ronnie Brown, the key weapon in their offense. Ricky Williams has done a good job for the Dolphins in his absence, but more pressure has been put on Chad Henne's shoulders now to make more plays, and he's simply not ready for it. That was shown last week as he threw 3 interceptions in the fourth quarter of a 14-31 loss at Buffalo, a game in which they led 14-7 entering the final period. Miami's defense is not the same as it was a year ago, allowing 25.0 points/game this year, including 26.6 points/game at home. The Patriots put up 27 points and 432 yards of total offense in their first meeting with Miami, a 27-17 home win. Tom Brady and this offense will explode for 30 or more Sunday which will be more than enough to cover this spread. Miami is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Take New England and lay the points.