Johnny Banks
New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Over 47
Play on the Over 47, The Saints offense rolls over this Redskins defense Sunday afternoon because Washington has to many defensive injuries. The Saints are averaging 37 ppg this season and I look for the Redskins to put up at least 20 points as well.
Bob Wingerter
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: New England Patriots -4½
The Patriots are an NFL-best 24-2 in December since 2003, and they’re riding a 12-game winning streak in December. New England has a 42-12 regular-season record against the AFC East since 2001, which is the best intra-division record in the NFL in that span. Without injured RB Ronnie Brown, Miami’s Wildcat package becomes more limited. The Patriots are a good team off an embarrassing defeat that really didn’t mean much because they are merely targeting division games and priming for the post-season as they go along. They're not catching Indianapolis, they weren't in competition with New Orleans from the other conference. They are on a mission to put Miami farther away in the rear-view.
Mark Franco
Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Play: Pittsburgh Steelers -14½
This has all the making of a rout after Pittsburgh lost last week on the road at Baltimore. I just don’t see how Oakland will be able to move the ball and I can see the Steelers having one of their breakout offensive games here at home. The Raiders have been held to 10 points or less six times this year and I say it will be seven. Back the Steelers and let the big number.
John Ryan
Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Detroit Lions +13
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Detroit as they take on Cleveland set to start at 1:00 EST. AiS shows a 73% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 13 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 22-4 ATS for 85% winners since 2004 and is an amazing 11-1 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Play on road teams that are average passing teams gaining 185-230 PYPG facing an average passing defense allowing 185-230 PYPG after 8+ games and after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game. Detroit is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games off a home loss by 10 or more points since 1992; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more since 1992; 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games after a loss by 14 or more points since 1992. HC Lewis is a weak 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games as the coach of the Bengals. The one basic thing Stafford has learned so far this season is that CB are going to jump routes when the Lions are behind. In college he simply out throw the coverage and still complete passes. The NFL coverage schemes are far more complex and when leading in a game you will see defenses utilize under/over coverages that allow a CB the freedom to gamble and jump routes. Point is that Stafford is progressing fast and is not making these same misreads. I think he still needs to throw the ball away when no one is open and that will come with time. Yes, there is another Manny Ramirez and he plays guard for the Lions. Strong guard play is necessary for play action pass to work well. If the guards to not execute well then it only allows the defenders more time to sack the QB. Such has been the case for the Lions, but I like the matchups I see this week. I think play action will work and allow Stafford more time to survey his pass options and reads. Ramirez has been benched three times for ineffective play this season, but he is learning at a very fast level. His job Sunday is to keep Tank Johnson from gaining inside leverage on him, which would blow up running plays. I believe the Lions will get the Bengals to respect the running game just enough to allow those play action and roll out type of plays to be executed a high percentage. Take the Lions.
Alex Grosse
Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Detroit Lions +13
The Lions have definitely not been one of the most profitable NFL teams to bet on this season but they may be in a good position to cover in this one. Cincinnati is 8-3 and has definitely been one of the most surprising teams so far this season but the Bengals are 0-5 ATS as a favorite this year. Additionally, the Bengals are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 contests as a home favorite. This is also somewhat of a sandwich game for Cincinnati as they face Minnesota next week and San Diego in 2 weeks. The Bengals will likely not be too focused on this contest as the real competition will take place over the next two weeks. Cincinnati will win but not by more than 10 points. Take the Lions to cover the number.
EZWINNERS
New Orleans Saints @ Washington Redskins
Play: New Orleans Saints -9.5
Many people believe that this will be a flat spot for the Saints after their big win against the Patriots on Monday night, but I am not one of those people. The Redskins defensive numbers are very good this season, but lets remember that they have played a very easy schedule that has inflated some of those numbers. The Redskins have not played against anything like the offensive juggernaut that they are going to face in this game. On offense the Redskins will not be able to keep up. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams was snubbed by Washington owner Daniel Snyder for the Redskins head coaching position when Joe Gibbs retired. You can be sure Williams will have a great game plan to shutdown the Skins today. Lay the points.
JIM FEIST
ST. LOUIS RAMS / CHICAGO BEARS
TAKE: ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Rams (1-10 SU/5-6 ATS) have pretty much sewed up the top pick in the draft for new Coach Steve Spagnuolo. The offense lost QB Marc Bulger (5 TDs, 6 picks) two weeks ago to a fractured left leg. He will be sidelined three to six weeks. Backup QB Kyle Boller will make his fourth start of the year Sunday against the Bears. Boller (3 TDs, 5 picks) has been lousy in this run-first offense ranked 26th overall. They come off a 27-17 home loss to Seattle, despite an edge in yards 364-265. RB Steven Jackson was the lone bright spot for the Rams with 89 yards rushing on 23 carries after missing three days of practice due to back spasms. He fell short of a fifth straight 100-yard game while running behind a makeshift offensive line much of the way, with two starters inactive and center Jason Brown (right knee) sidelined near the end of the half. Jackson has 117, 79, 84, 50, 134, 149, 131, 116 and 89 yards the last nine games as they look for the kind of balanced offense Spagnuolo worked with in New York. The Rams have been outscored 60-16 in the first quarter. The defense is 28th in the NFL. The Bears (4-7 SU/ATS) are done, on a 1-5 SU/ATS run. QB Jay Cutler (16 TDs, 20 picks) tries to do too much himself because he has a weak offensive line and below average wide outs. The offense is averaging 21 ppg, ranked 19th overall with no running game (85 yds per game on the ground). There are still question marks with these young wide receivers (Earl Bennett, rookie Johnny Knox). The last three games have taken the wind out of their sales, a nightmarish loss on the West Coast, 10-6 at the 49ers, as Cutler had no TDs and 5 picks. That was Cutler's fourth game with three or more interceptions over the last two seasons. Then a home loss to the Eagles, getting outgained 377-284, and Sunday.5?s 36-10 loss at Minnesota giving up 537 yards, while the offense had (gulp) 169 total yards. The defense is 14th overall, without star LB Brian Urlacher, who will miss the rest of the season after undergoing surgery to repair his dislocated right wrist. Even against the Browns, Cutler was on the run all day and got sacked a season-high four times. Two bad teams yes, but the oddsmakers are acting like the Bears are much better than they are. Can't lay these kinds of points with a team that could lose straight up. The Rams plus the points here is a gift from the oddsmakers!!
Jeff Benton
New Orleans at WASHINGTON +9'
For Sunday’s free play in the NFL, I’m going against the grain and taking the big points with the Redskins at home against unbeaten New Orleans.
I know this seems insane after the way the Saints looked on Monday against the Patriots. But really, that’s the EXACT reason why this is a great spot to go against New Orleans. That was arguably THE biggest win in franchise history Monday, and the only place for the Saints players to go from an emotional standpoint is down. Besides, don’t overlook the short week for New Orleans – playing on the road after playing on Monday night is never easy.
As for the Redskins, scoff all you want, but they’ve been extremely competitive the last three weeks, knocking off the Broncos (then 7-2) 27-17 as a 3½-point home underdog, then losing consecutive last-minute heartbreakers on the road to divisional rivals Dallas (7-6 as an 11-point ‘dog) and Philadelphia (27-24 as a 9½-point pup). That’s three strong performances and three spread-covers against three playoff contenders. Most encouragingly for Washington fans, the ‘Skins’ dormant offense awoke against the Broncos and Eagles with season-high point totals.
Last year when these teams met in Week 2, Washington scored a 29-24 win as a one-point home favorite, and the final score didn’t even come close to telling the story, as the Redskins outgained the Saints 455-250, with Jason Campbell (306 passing yards) outdueling Drew Brees (250 passing yards). No, I’m not suggesting that’s going to happen again today, but it’s very possible that Brees has trouble against a very underrated Washington defense, which this season is yielding just 18.6 ppg and ranks second in the league against the pass, giving up just 170.4 ypg through air with 11 TDs allowed vs. seven INTs.
Finally, don’t forget that the Saints have been far from perfect, as they recently had that four-game stretch in which they struggled to beat the Dolphins, Falcons, Panthers and Rams. On top of that you KNOW we’re dealing with an inflated number after what New Orleans did on Monday night. Take the big points, as Washington uses its defense and running game to keep this one tighter than the experts think.
6♦ WASHINGTON
Karl Garrett
San Diego -13' at CLEVELAND
Saturday winner on Pittsburgh, now 3 in a row for free in the win column!
Unless an unforeseen blanket of snow pelts Lake Erie this Sunday, I suggest you back the Chargers to dispose of the lowly Brownies.
Aside from Cleveland's 37-point eruption at Detroit 2 weeks ago, the Browns have been held to 6 offensive touchdowns ALL season long.
San Diego has reeled off 6 straight wins, and they have covered in 4 straight, and 5 of 6 overall. Included is 3 straight road wins and covers for the Bolts.
Even with the points it has been hard on Cleveland to make money for their backers, as the Browns have gone 1-4 against the spread their last 5 at home, and they have only covered in 4 of their last 14 since last year.
San Diego has Denver nipping at their heels in the AFC West, so expect the Chargers not to pussyfoot around with this beaten Browns outfit.
Lay the road wood with Diego, as they very well could win this one 28-3.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Randall the Handle
THE BEST
Texans @ Jaguars
We find ourselves back here again not because of our faith in the Advil-inducing Texans but primarily because of the Jaguars fraudulent depiction. Jacksonville has won four of its last seven games. Those wins came by 3, 3, 2 and 3 against the Rams, Chiefs, Jets and Bills respectively. In its three losses during that span, Jacksonville was outscored 91-16 to the Seahawks, Titans and Niners. Houston ranks ahead of the latter trio and after three heartbreaking defeats, this opponent will get the Texans back on their feet.
TAKING: Houston +1 RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Saints @ Redskins
New Orleans has been extraordinary this season and it culminated this past Monday with a dominant performance over the Patriots. While the Saints are maintaining their ‘game at a time’ posture, there is no question that this week will be an emotional letdown. Having played a near immaculate game and traveling on a short week to play a lesser opponent, this one aligns nicely. The Redskins defence continues to play well and with a bunch of home points to play with, the dog gets our call here.
TAKING: Washington +9½ RISKING: 2.08 units to win 2 PINNACLE
Titans @ Colts
Something’s got to give. The Colts have won 20 straight regular season games while Vince Young has won nine consecutive starts and five straight this year since going under center for the streaking Titans. It makes for a great storyline but in reality, this is a monster game for the visitor and just another day at work for Indianapolis. Tennessee is a win away from being tied for the final playoff spot. They are much stronger, both defensively and mentally, than in the 31-9 setback to Colts earlier this year. The Colts can lose and still have stranglehold on AFC.
TAKING: Tennessee +6½ RISKING: 2.08 units to win 2 PINNACLE
THE REST
Patriots @ Dolphins
New England arrives here with its tail tucked between its legs after being humiliated nationally on Monday night. While Patriots may have rolled over, don’t expect them to play dead. Pats won earlier meeting by 10 and a win here pretty much sews up division.TAKING: New England –5
Broncos @ Chiefs
Not sure which Denver team will show up but either way, we are encouraged by fundamental improvements on the Kansas City side of things. Chiefs have covered five of past seven taking points and are confident enough to do so here. TAKING: Kansas City +4 ½
Raiders @ Steelers
Steelers should be able to break out of current funk in big way here as Ben Roethlisberger is expected to return to lineup. Oakland scoring under 10 points on road this season and with current quarterback ineptitude, repair will take some time.TAKING: Pittsburgh –14 ½
Eagles @ Falcons
Too many skill position players are currently on the sidelines for the struggling Falcons. Donovan McNabb figures to wreak havoc amongst Atlanta’s 27th ranked pass defence and without the ability to counterpunch, this could be long day for host.TAKING: Philadelphia –5½
Lions @ Bengals
Cincinnati continues to win but still has a propensity to play to its opponent’s level. Bengals have been favoured five times this season and have yet to cover. With trip to Minnesota on deck, Cincy unlikely to exert too much effort here.TAKING: Detroit +13
Buccaneers @ Panthers
QB Jake Delhomme likely to sit this one out with a sore finger. Right. While replacement Matt Moore cannot be worse, it remains a difficult assignment to cover this spread against a divisional foe in his first start since December ’07.TAKING: Tampa Bay +6 ½
Rams @ Bears
The Weather Channel may be more exciting than this one. Slight lean to the Rams here as they continue to make baby strides under new coaching regime while the Bears continue to spin their wheels.TAKING: St. Louis +9 ½
Chargers @ Browns
Double-digit road favourites in this league are rarely a good idea. San Diego has it going on right now and appears to be in playoff form but this is still a trip to Eastern time zone and another trip to Dallas follows next week. Norv may conserve some energy here.TAKING: Cleveland +13
49ers @ Seahawks
It’s easy to forget Seattle ’s capacity for playing at home after it has been traveling for a month. After three consecutive defeats, the Seahawks should bounce back against a 49ers squad that has trouble against passing teamsTAKING: Seattle –1
Vikings @ Cardinals
Kurt Warner is the key to this recommendation and it appears he will start. We can’t downplay what Minnesota has done this year but Baltimore and Green Bay are the only teams it has face with winning records.TAKING: Arizona +5
Cowboys @ Giants
The only thing that cools down quicker than the thermometer in December, are these Cowboys. Dallas has managed just one win in its past 10 games in the calendar’s final month. The Giants need to redeem themselves for disgraceful showing on Thanksgiving.TAKING: NY Giants +1 ½
Ravens @ Packers
Things get a bit easier down the stretch for Ravens after having to endure one of the league’s toughest schedules. A win here would do wonders for any playoff aspirations and with Green Bay being vulnerable to physical teams, the mild upset would not surprise.TAKING: Baltimore +3
CRAIG TRAPP
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Pick: Dallas Cowboys -1
The Cowboys owe the Giants as they ruined the opening of JerryWorlds new Dallas Stadium. Today they will give it back to them big time. The Cowboys defense will be the difference in this game as they have recently been putting a ton of pressure on QB's and stomping out the run game of opponents. Not good news for a Giants team that has not been able to run or pass without turning the ball over. Manning is banged up going into this game and thats like blood in the water to this Dallas defense. The Cowboys offense has found their run game in the past few games and with a trio of RB's watchout. Giants defense was carved up by the run game last week in Denver. Dallas has a better run game which will run wild on Sunday. Enjoy this easy winner as the Boys put it to the Giants!
Tony Mathews
Chicago Bears vs. St Louis Rams
Selection: St Louis Rams +9
After a good looking start, the Bears have of all but crushed their playoff hopes after losing 6 of their last 7 games this season.
With an incredible turnover rate, Bear’s QB Jay Cutler has proven to be disastrous in his first season with Chicago. Cutler leads the NFL in interceptions throwing a total of 20. This season, the Chicago defense has been despondent with an inability to follow through, and there is no reason to believe that will change this Sunday.
St. Louis is 3-1 against the spread in their last 4 games despite the fact that they’ve managed only one SU win this season. Even though that SU record is abysmal, the Rams still show plenty of motivation. Their consistent display of effort each week can be attributed to Steve Spagnulo, St. Louis’ new head coach. In the midst of a losing season and the Bears busy playing the blame game, we back St. Louis who is obviously the team showing more solidarity and ambition in this matchup.
Take the St Louis Rams +9
Bruce Marshall
Detroit Lions vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Plays: Cincinnati Bengals -13.5
Allowing an average of 30.5 points per game, the Detroit Lions are ranked worst in the league for points allowed and they are also ranked worst in the NFL in pass defense. This means that the Bengal offense should have no difficulty whatsoever scoring against this 2-9 opponent.
Right now Cincinnati leads the AFC North and we expect the Bengals to stay disciplined this week showing a solid performance in order to get one step closer to clinching a spot in the playoffs.
Take the Cincinnati Bengals -13.5
BIG AL
San Diego Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Play: Cleveland Browns +13.5
This is one of those NFL games where you have to hold your nose before you plunk down hard-earned money on the Browns, but it's also one of those games that tends to win more often than not. Granted, San Diego is playing great football, and has won six straight games (covering their last four), while Cleveland is on a six-game losing streak. But since 1980, unrested NFL teams off six or more wins, and three or more pointspread wins, are a horrid 32-63 ATS! This system has had two plays already this season, and has gone 2-0. On November 1, Indy was a 13-point favorite vs. the 49ers (after winning six, and covering five straight games), yet won by a mere four points, 18-14. And then, the following day, on Monday Night Football, New Orleans failed to cover against Atlanta as an 11-point favorite, for its first ATS loss of the season after starting 6-0 SU/ATS. Don't be surprised by a much closer game than expected. Take the points.
LT Profits
Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars
We are a tad surprised that the Jacksonville Jaguars have turned up as small home underdogs here vs. a Houston Texans defense that has had trouble stopping the run, so we will gladly back the Jaguars to keep their wild card hopes alive.
Perhaps this line is skewed by the fact that Jacksonville had a bad loss at San Francisco last week while Houston had the 11-0 Indianapolis Colts on the ropes before losing by eight points. However, we actually feel that combination gives the Jaguars an emotional edge here.
Keep in mind that the San Francisco game was a cross-country trip vs. a non-conference opponent in a game the Jaguars were not desperate to win, and the result would have been different if not coming away empty in three goal-to-go situations (two lost fumbles, one missed field goal). The Jags still mostly control their wild card fate, and this divisional battle is much more important to those hopes.
On the flip side, the Texans lost their personal Super Bowl at home last week after building a 17-0 lead, and we simply do not see them recovering from that anytime soon. Remember also that they lost at home to these Jaguars earlier this season, so even if they win this game, they would still need a lot to happen to sneak into the playoffs.
We do not feel they will need to worry about that though, as their run defense that is allowing a poor 4.8 yards per carry will not be able to stop one of the best backs in football in Maurice Jones-Drew. This line looks wacky, but we are still calling for a safe Jacksonville win.
Pick: Jaguars +2