Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Seattle Seahawks +1.5
The 49ers are just 1-4 on the road this season and they'll have their hands full today with a Seattle team pumped to be back home after 3 straight weeks out on the road. San Francisco just isn't a good enough offensively to warrant laying any amount of points on the road right now against most teams. In fact, they are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite. Seattle has long been a solid home team and it has been at its best at home late in the season, going a perfect 7-0-1 ATS in post-Thanksgiving Sunday games since 2006. Also, San Francisco is on a 4-16 ATS slide in road games after allowing 9 points or less in their last game. I expect the Seahawks to avenge their earlier season loss to the 49ers Sunday afternoon.
Golden Contender
Saints at Skins
Pick: Over
This game fits a solid 20 year old totals system that plays to the over when we have a non divisional road favorite of -6.5 or more who won their last game by 20 or more points and scored 42 or less points if they visit a divisional opponent in their next game. This fine system has cashed over 80% of the time. The Saints off their big win at home on Monday against the Patriots will not let down on offense here. Even with a solid Washington defense the Saints have too many weapons on offense for the Redskins to deal with. Washington knows they will have to score here today. I look for Washington to open up the offense today and build off the solid showing they had last week vs Philly.
Lenny Del Genio
ARI / MIN Over 47
The Vikings have scored 27 or more points in all but one game this season (the loss to Pittsburgh) and started the season by going Over the total in six of their first eight games. However, lately their defense has been so good that despite an offensive average of nearly 33 PPG the last three weeks, they've gone Under in three straight. You'll have that when you're allowing less than 10 PPG.
Arizona has the receivers to stretch the Minnesota defense and negate the pass rush, regardless if QB Kurt Warner plays or not. The Cardinals, like the Vikings, have gone Under in two straight games. Talk about your just due situations. Arizona is on a 13-4 Over run if they went Under in their previous game. They've also gone Over in three straight games vs. NFC North opponents, including a 35-14 loss to the Vikings last year.
The Cardinals defense is allowing an average of over 25 PPG in five home games this season. That's bad news when facing Brett Favre and company. As mentioned above, the Vikings have been scoring in bunches lately and are averaging 31.1 PPG for the year. If they were able to score 35 on the Arizona D without Favre last year, what do you think they will be able to do with him under center? Take Over.
Stephen Nover
New Orleans at WASHINGTON +9'
The spot couldn't be worse for New Orleans.
The Saints, a warm-weather dome team, are traveling on a short week following a huge Monday night victory against New England. All the Saints have been hearing this week is praise and the possibility of them going unbeaten.
But this won't be a temperature-controlled climate game against a weak secondary for New Orleans.
It's cold this time of year in Washington D.C. It's a grass field and the Redskins have the second-best pass defense in the NFL. The Redskins rank in the top 10 in total defense and defensive scoring. They are expected to have back star defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who has missed the last couple of games.
The Saints were obviously up for their home game on national television against the Patriots. Previous to that matchup, however, New Orleans was 1-3 against the spread.
It's a given Jim Zorn isn't going to return as Washington's head coach. But Zorn and the Redskins deserve credit for playing hard in the second half of the season. Despite multiple injuries, Washington has hung tough.
In their last three games, the Redskins upset the Broncos as a home underdog and lost road games to Dallas and Philadelphia - both decided at the end - by a combined four points.
The Redskins are never going to win by their offense. But since Sherm Lewis stopped calling bingo and took over the play-calling, the Redskins have averaged 327 yards and 18.2 points per game compared to 294 yards and 13.2 points per contest.
2♦ WASHINGTON REDSKINS
Dominic Fazzini
San Diego -13' at CLEVELAND
Didn't come close with my complimentary selection Saturday as Texas barely eked out a win over Nebraska, and probably should have come away with an outright loss. But I'm still 20-7 over my last 27 free plays, and I've got one today that could be in by halftime.
The Browns are terrible. Everyone knows it. They average just 11.1 points per game, which is second to last in the NFL, and are dead last in the league with 230.6 yards per game.
And the defense is nearly as bad, allowing 25.4 ppg (ranked 27th) and 393.3 ypg (last in the AFC). And now Cleveland's defense is going to be shorthanded today, with most of its top players likely on the sideline. Star tackle Shaun Rogers, the heart of the defense, was placed on injured reserve this week along with starting safety Brodney Pool. And cornerback Eric Wright, the only defensive player to start at the same position every week, is doubtful with a sore hamstring, lineman Kenyon Coleman is out with a knee injury and linebacker Kamerion Wimbley could miss the game with a knee injury.
That's a lot of players to be missing against a San Diego team that is rolling right now. The Chargers are coming off their sixth straight victory, a 43-14 thumping of rival Kansas City. They are third in the league in scoring with 28.4 ppg, and have won and covered in their last three road games.
San Diego has won 14 straight games in December, while Cleveland has lost nine straight home games, going 1-7-1 ATS. The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine December games, 5-2-1 in their last eight road games and 7-3-2 in their last 12 as a favorite. Go with San Diego to win by 17 points or more today.
5♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
Minnesota -3' at ARIZONA
Improved to 21-10 with my last 31 FREE selections after Saturday's easy winner on Nebraska as the Cornhuskers took Texas down to the final second in the Big 12 title game. Today it's an NFL freebie for you as I play the Vikings in Arizona against the Cardinals.
It’s said to be a game-time decision for the Cardinals if they will start QB Kurt Warner or backup Matt Leinart. Either way, they aren’t the factor in this one, it’s the dominant defensive line of the Vikings.
Minnesota has, by far, the best defensive line in the NFL with the Williams boys (Pat and Kevin) up the middle stuffing the run and getting to the QB on passes and then DE Jared Allen coming around the end like a mad man, chasing down QBs. They will give either Warner or Leinart trouble as they put a lot of pressure on the QB to make quick decisions that lead to INTs and good field position for the Vikings’ offense.
Of course we all know about the Brett Favre resurgence in Minnesota as the old man has thrown for 2,874 yards this season, is completing 70 percent of his throws and has 24 TDs and just 3 INTs. That’s right, 3 INTs, something he’s been known to do in a quarter in his past, not 11 games.
Favre has a nice stable of receivers to throw the ball to in Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and TE Visanthe Shiancoe. And he’s got the great equalizer behind him in RB Adrian Peterson. If Arizona keys the pass, Peterson will run right through them and if they key the run, Favre will pick them apart. He threw for a season-high 392 yards and three TDs against Chicago last weekend and because of the success, Peterson is not worn down late in the season as he’s got 1,084 yards and 12 TDs this season.
Last year, Minnesota went to Arizona and slapped the Cardinals around, winning 35-14 as a four-point road ‘dog. They’ve won two straight over the Cardinals and going back to 1996, the Vikings are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in seven meetings with Arizona.
The Cardinals are just 2-3 (SU and ATS) at home this season while the Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six against NFC teams.
Minnesota rolls into Arizona and scored a 31-21 victory in this one. Play the Vikings.
2♦ MINNESOTA
Scott Delaney
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Now on a 4-1 run with my complimentary releases, I'm laying the points with the Panthers in this NFC South showdown.
All the right factors align for Carolina today, as it always seem to run the ball well against Tampa Bay, while the Panthers' strong suit on defense is defending the passing game.
In the last two games against Tampa Bay, the Panthers have run for a mind-boggling 566 yards and seven touchdowns. Throw in the fact that Moore will be making his first start since 2007 and it’s easy to envision a scenario where the Panthers run the ball at least 40 times on Sunday.
I know Carolina will be without quarterback Jake Delhomme, but DeAngelo Williams should be cleared to play and line up with Jonathan Stewart. In his last two games against the Buccaneers, Williams has rumbled for 338 yards and four touchdowns, while Stewart has rushed for 225 yards and three scores.
It's no secret what the big, black cats are planning to do today - run it right down Tampa's banged-up defense's throat.
Now, on the other side of the ball, the Panthers are in with the third-best passing defense in the league. And the last time they took on Tampa they limited Josh Johnson to 147 yards on 11-of-17 completions. This time around it'll be Josh Freeman. No problem.
This is going to get out of hand in the second half, as the Panthers pull away late for the win and cover.
3♦ PANTHERS
Tony Weston
That could have and should have been an outright victory for Nebraska. But, we’ll have to settle for the cover in a game that Nebraska’s defense dominated.
I’m handing you another Comp Play winner today as I’m taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road at the Carolina Panthers.
Even though they only have one win SU this season, the Buccaneers have been making money the last month. Over Tampa's last four games the team has gone 3-1 ATS, covering in each of those games as an underdog.
They're installed as a 'dog again today as they head to Carolina to take on a Panthers team that's hurting. Starting QB Jake Delhomme won't play due to an injury, which opens the door for Matt Moore. Not only that, but starting running back DeAngelo Williams likely won't play either, taking away another piece of this Panthers offense.
Coming into this one, the Panthers have gone 0-2 SU and ATS their last two games, losing each of those games by an average of 9 points per.
Consider, too, Carolina has gone 1-3 ATS its last 4 games when installed as a favorite and the team has failed to cover in 5 of its last 6 games at home.
The Panthers are struggling right now and will have a hard time shaking the Bucs today.
3♦ BUCCANEERS
Steve Duemig
Very interesting line moves in this one. Opened at SF -1 which immediately had the wrong team favored. SF should not be laying points to anyone on the road. The line was stomped on at both SEA +1 and Pk, which then found Seattle laying 1. Now the public who are in love with the Niners for some reason are coming right back and betting SF to the point now that we have SEA right back where they were at +1!!! Even if this line is pick em at play time we can still take comfort that the pk was hit hard as well on SEA.
1♦ SEATTLE
JR TIPS
HEAT at KINGS
The Sacramento Kings will look to get back over .500 as they host the Miami Heat tonight while the Heat are at the last stop of their four-game road trip after a heartbreaking loss to the Lakers. Miami has been slumping lately dropping four of five and seven of 10 although they nearly pulled off a road upset of the reigning NBA champions before Kobe Bryant hit a desperation 3-pointer to beat then 108-107 Friday night. Miami is 4-4 on the road this season with victories at Orlando and Portland now having to win at Sacramento who have won four straight at Arco Arena. Sacramento is 8-2 at home this season as rookie Tyreke Evans has provided the biggest boost for the Kings. Evans has scored at least 20 points in 10 of his last 12 games shooting 48.3 percent from the field leading the Kings to an 8-4 record overall. He scored 21 points, seven assists and had six rebounds in a 115-107 loss at Phoenix last night as Sacramento's four-game winning streak came to an end.The Kings led entering the fourth quarter but had problems defensively down the stretch. Miami has won 10 of its last 11 against the Kings as Wade had 41 points in the Heat's 119-115 overtime win at Sacramento last year on Jan. 9th. The Miami Heat are on their last stop of their Western Conference road and have to face a Kings team playing very good basketball every night as this team is playing with alot of energy and they play their best basketball at home. NBA teams wear down towards the end of long road trips, especially on the other coast and the Heat will have a difficult time matching the energy level of the Kings after coming off back to back losses against the Nuggets and the Lakers. Losing a game at the buzzer to the World champs after playing such a great game will take the air out of any team which makes the Kings a great home underdog in this situation.
TAKE SACRAMENTO KINGS +1.5
DUNKEL INDEX
Tennessee at Indianapolis
The Titans look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games as an underdog between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Tennessee is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7)
Game 337-338: Denver at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.820; Kansas City 125.987
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 41
Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 38
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+5); Over
Game 339-340: Oakland at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 123.187; Pittsburgh 136.697
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+14 1/2); Under
Game 341-342: Houston at Jacksonville
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 134.883; Jacksonville 129.844
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 51
Vegas Line: Pick; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston; Over
Game 343-344: Tennessee at Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 136.723; Indianapolis 140.940
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 4; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+7); Under
Game 345-346: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 137.884; Atlanta 130.824
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 7; 42
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-5 1/2); Under
Game 347-348: Detroit at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.885; Cincinnati 136.320
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 19 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 13; 42
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-13); Over
Game 349-350: New Orleans at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 142.560; Washington 131.799
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11; 50
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-9 1/2); Over
Game 351-352: Tampa Bay at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Carolina 132.349
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 5 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+6 1/2); Under
Game 353-354: St. Louis at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 122.252; Chicago 128.010
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6; 46
Vegas Line: Chicago by 9 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+9 1/2); Over
Game 355-356: San Diego at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 136.005; Cleveland 121.884
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Vegas Line: San Diego by 13; 43
Dunkel Pick San Diego (-13); Over
Game 357-358: San Francisco at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 131.079; Seattle 126.405
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Seattle by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+1); Under
Game 359-360: Minnesota at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 141.972; Arizona 138.628
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 4 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+4 1/2); Over
Game 361-362: Dallas at NY Giants
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 134.441; NY Giants 135.456
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+2 1/2); Under
MONDAY, DECEMBER 7
Game365-366: Baltimore at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.316; Green Bay 136.987
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under
NBA
Phoenix at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to take advantage of a Phoenix team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing with 0 days of rest. Los Angeles is the pick (-9 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9 1/2)
Game 501-502: New Jersey at New York
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 110.559; New York 114.960
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 202
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+5); Over
Game 503-504: Cleveland at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.800; Milwaukee 113.984
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 10; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 7; 195
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-7); Over
Game 505-506: Washington at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 113.809; Detroit 118.555
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3; 189
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-3); Over
Game 507-508: Miami at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 118.318; Sacramento 115.084
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 3; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Phoenix at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.810; LA Lakers 131.687
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 12; 227
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 223
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Harvard at Connecticut
The Crimson look to take advantage of a Connecticut team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 non-conference games. Harvard is the pick (+19 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by only 17. Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+19 1/2)
Game 511-512: Central Florida at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 56.830; Notre Dame 68.368
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 15
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (+15)
Game 513-514: Florida International at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 41.527; Florida State 72.535
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 31
Vegas Line: Florida State by 26 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-26 1/2)
Game 515-516: South Carolina at Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 64.910; Clemson 69.221
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 7
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (+7)
Game 517-518: Harvard at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 56.503; Connecticut 73.542
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 17
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+19 1/2)
Game 519-520: St. Joseph's at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 54.620; Cornell 64.695
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 10
Vegas Line: Cornell by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-8 1/2)
Game 521-522: Miami (FL) at Boston College
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 64.332; Boston College 69.213
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 5
Vegas Line: Boston College by 3
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (-3)
Game 523-524: Ohio at Tulsa
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 52.975; Tulsa 64.100
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 11
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 15
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+15)
Game 525-526: Tulane at Western Kentucky
Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 56.129; Western Kentucky 62.215
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+9 1/2)
Game 527-528: Georgia at Virginia Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 55.164; Virginia Tech 64.791
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 11
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+11)
Game 529-530: Nebraska at Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 63.032; Creighton 64.356
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+5 1/2)
Game 531-532: Kansas at UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 80.436; UCLA 61.755
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 15
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-15)
Game 533-534: Arizona at Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 62.296; Oklahoma 70.500
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 8
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 7
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-7)
Game 535-536: San Diego at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 57.919; Fresno State 55.665
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-1 1/2)
Game 537-538: Villanova at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 71.403; Maryland 70.636
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 1
Vegas Line: Villanova by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (+1 1/2)
Game 539-540: Portland at Idaho
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 60.198; Idaho 61.037
Dunkel Line: Idaho by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Idaho
Game 541-542: CS-Northridge at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 55.341; Washington 72.336
Dunkel Line: Washington by 17
Vegas Line: Washington by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+18 1/2)
Game 543-544: Loyola-MD at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 49.922; Niagara 63.972
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 14
Vegas Line: Niagara by 11
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-11)
Game 545-546: Fairfield at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 51.695; St. Peter's 53.184
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+2)
Game 547-548: Manhattan at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 48.099; Canisius 55.108
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 7
Vegas Line: Canisius by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-5 1/2)
Game 549-550: Marist at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 42.851; Rider 54.553
Dunkel Line: Rider by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Rider by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+13 1/2)
NHL
Ottawa at Anaheim
The Ducks look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games against the Pacific Division. Anaheim is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-145).
Game 1-2: Detroit at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.617; NY Rangers 11.024
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under
Game 3-4: Ottawa at Anaheim
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.985; Anaheim 11.845
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-145); Under
Wunderdog
South Carolina vs. Clemson
Play: Clemson -6.5
We were treated to a great SEC tilt in college football yesterday and today we get one in basketball as South Carolina heads to No. 18 Clemson. I expect a hard-fought game here but in the end I think the Tigers will simply have too much for South Carolina to handle. Clemson is off a loss to Illinois. They were up by 23 points at one point but let it slip away. They shot just 39.3% from the field, but still only lost by a bucket. They will come out breathing fire here to prove to everyone that was a fluke, and to avoid a second straight loss. Their only other loss came to Texas A&M. South Carolina lost to Miami by 15 for their only loss of the season, but that was the one good team they have played. The Gamecocks are averaging 80.9 per game but just 72.3 on the road. Clemson gets 86.7 per game at home. But the real difference is on defense. Clemson has allowed just 63.2 points per game this season. This team is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 home games when favored in this range. I like the Tigers here.
Tom Freese
Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Under
Ottawa is 4-0 UNDER vs. an opponent that allowed 5 or more goals in their last game and they are 4-1 UNDER with no rest. The Senators are 8-3-1 UNDER their last 12 Sunday games and they are 5-2 UNDER when playing their fourth game in six nights. Anaheim is 6-1 UNDER when playing with one day of rest and they are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 home games. The Ducks are 5-1 UNDER on Sunday and they are 4-1-1 UNDER their last 6 meetings at home vs. the Senators. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
DAVE MALINSKY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
PICK: Carolina Panthers -4
The game-day move that has dropped this one to -4 makes it “go time” to get behind the Panthers, in a case in which the markets have lost their way when it comes to making a personnel adjustment.
Yes, Jake Delhomme will not start for the Panthers. This is the Jake Delhomme that has produced a miserly 59.4 passer rating, with an awful ratio of 18 INT’s vs. only eight TD passes, and has also fumbled six times, losing three. Last Sunday’s loss to the Jets was the last straw, with Delhomme throwing four picks, one that was returned for a TD, while the offense did not reach the end zone, and managed only 11 first downs. It got convenient for John Fox to make the benching because Delhomme suffered a broken finger, but our sources tell us that the change was going to be made this week anyway, since the Panthers are now out of the playoff chase.
We believe it is a positive, not a negative, for Matt Moore to get the start. It brings a spark into what could otherwise have been a flat spot, and it is also the ideal opponent for Moore to face – the Bucs are 30th in the N.F.L. against the run, allowing an awful 4.8 per attempt and 12 rushing TD’s, and they were mashed at the line of scrimmage in that earlier 28-21 home loss to the Panthers, when both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart ran for over 100 yards, part of a 267 team total at 5.8 per attempt.
Tampa bay brings little here. With 18 undrafted free agents on the 53-man roster there is not a strength to build on, and it looks like a weak defense is going to without CB Aqib Talib, forcing Elbert Mack, one of those undrafted FA’s, into the starting lineup. The Bucs do not belong in this price range on the road, and that leaves only a speed bump for the home team to overcome to get the money.
(LATE NOTE: There is even more line movement here now that Carolina is going to scratch Williams, but Stewart has rushed for 544 yards at 4.6 per carry, with six TD's, and we have no problem with him taking on a bigger role in the offense, especially since it means the chance to lay -3.5).
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chargers/Browns UNDER 43
Bottom Line: Plays Under on any team (SAN DIEGO) after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in weeks 10 through 13, are 23-5 since 1983. San Diego's recent performances have really driven this line up. Plus, Cleveland's offense is awful, scoring only 10.7 ppg at home this season. In fact, the Browns have scored 7 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games with those 4 games all going Under. We'll take the Under for 1 Unit here.