Jack Jones
New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins
Play: Over 45½
Pats are scoring almost 28 points per game on 412 yards per game of total offense. On the road this team has struggled defensively, giving up 361 yards per game which has led to 23.2 ppg. The Dolphins are putting up 30.2 ppg in Miami on 372 yards per game. Defensively they haven't been so sharp, giving up 26.6 ppg. New England's last three games have been high scoring, with at least one team getting past 30 points. I think there is some value here today by taking the OVER.
SPORTS WAGERS
Tampa Bay +2.09 over CAROLINA
The Panthers are going backwards, the intensity level they play with is getting worse each week and now Jake Delhomme is likely out or will finally be benched in favor of Matt Moore, a guy that hasn’t started a game since 2007. No matter which QB goes, and it appears it’ll be Moore, the Panthers will try and run all day long because its passing game has become a complete dumpster-fire. After two losses in a row to the Jets and Dolphins, the Panthers now sit at 4-7 and its playoff hopes are pretty much dead. Whatever motivation they had has been completely sucked out of them and of all the teams in the NFL, this Panther squad plays with less fire than all of them. The Bucs playoff hopes have been dead since the end of September. However, Josh Freeman seems to have instilled some life into them and the Bucs are no longer an easy out. Freeman has a great arm, he can move and he now has four starts under his belt. In fact, the Bucs won Freemans’ first start, 38-28 over Green Bay and they should have won two of his other starts, a 25-23 setback to the Fish and last week’s 20-17 loss to the Falcons. In both those games the Bucs held a lead until the game’s final play. The team is inspired, the players are responding and despite its 1-10 record, the Bucs are the team that wants it more while the Panthers have seemingly thrown in the proverbial towel. The six points are large and you can take them if you like. I’m calling the Buccaneers outright. Play: Tampa Bay +2.09 (Risking 2 units).
WASHINGTON +9½ over New Orleans
They’re still dancing in the streets in New Orleans after their beloved Saints dismantled the mighty Patriots on national TV on Monday night. The Saints seem to be humble and focused but emotions had to be at its highest point ever. This team is now 11-0 and things couldn’t be better. However, that dismantling of the Pats has increased the Saints stock to its highest point ever and you can double that with the whole world watching. Now, with its stock at its highest point and with a huge emotional win behind them, the Saints will be asked to travel on a short week and lay 9½ points on the road. It’s too many and not only are they in danger of not covering but they’re in a classic letdown spot and could lose outright. The Skins look a whole lot better than they did earlier in the year. The Skins pushed the Eagles to the limit last week in Philly as a 9-point pooch. Previously, they lost to the Boys in Dallas, 7-6 after beating the Broncos 27-17. That’s three good weeks of football from these Skins, the latter two on the road. Washington is playing tremendous defense and you know the fans, city and team will be completely juiced up for this one. The Saints experienced that last week and are in real danger this week of coming back down to earth. The Saints are way overvalued here. Sell high my friends. Play: Washington +9½ (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
KANSAS CITY +4½ over Denver
The Broncos were absolutely reeling before its big win over the Giants 10 days ago in Denver on a Thanksgiving Thursday night on prime time TV. The Broncs were a 6-point dog in that one and now they’re a 4½-point road favorite. Now, I’m no mathematician but that’s a 10½-point swing in one week and the Giants have certainly not looked much better than the Chiefs. In fact, in KC’s last home game just two weeks ago they beat the Steelers while Denver was losing to the Chargers 32-3, the same Charger team that buried Kansas City last week. Interesting, isn’t it? Now let’s assume that this game was scheduled last week with the Chiefs at home coming off a 27-24 win over the Steelers and the Broncos riding a four-game losing streak. Would this line be Denver –4½? Not a chance and this one is a prime example of an overlay based on last week’s results. Arrowhead is not an easy place to win and the Broncos offense will not have the same success they had over the reeling Giants. Kansas City was moving the ball on every possession last week in San Diego but turned the ball over seven times and that ultimately did them in. No way do they repeat that performance and no way should the Broncos be a 4½-point choice at this venue. Play: Kansas City +4½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
ARIZONA +3½ over Minnesota
Bravo to Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings for their 10-2 start to the year. In fact, they probably should be 11-0 because they sure didn’t deserve to lose that one game in Pittsburgh a few weeks back. That’s all great and you really can’t take anything way from these Vikes but we still really don’t know how good they are and a lot of its scores this season have been very misleading. They’ve also played every tomato can in the league and its schedule has been anything but challenging. The Vikes first two games were against Cleveland and Detroit. Combined, those two are 3-19. They then hosted San Fran and won on a prayer on the game’s final play. Next up were Green and St. Louis followed by Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Green Bay again, Detroit again, Seattle and Chicago. They beat the Ravens by two (the game was in Minny) and lost to Pittsburgh and while those two teams are good, they’ve both proven they’re very beatable. The rest of the Vikes games were against junk and now they’re finally going to face some real quality on the road. The Cards offense is as good as it gets and you need not worry about Warner possibly not playing or getting knocked out because Matt Leinart is very capable and is going to do some damage in this league. The Vikes defense is nowhere near as impressive as advertised and what we have here is a teams’ defensive numbers that are completely skewed because of the competition they’ve played. The Cards are far more battle tested, they’re every bit as talented as the Vikes and maybe more so and for the first time this year the Vikes will get exposed for what they are, which is a good team but nowhere near being a great one. Cards outright. Play: Arizona +3½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Michael Cannon
Oakland at PITTSBURGH -15
I’m 39-26-1 with my last 66 overall free plays.
Take the Steelers as the big home chalk over the Raiders today.
I know Pittsburgh has been struggling, but this is exactly the spot where they right the ship and deliver a win in impressive fashion.
That’s because the Raiders have been terrible all season long and I don’t see them scoring more than 10 points here today. Oakland’s offense generates just 234.4 ypg and an NFL-worst 10.5 ppg.
The Steelers have the league’s ninth-best total offense at 372.4 ypg and third-rated defense at 288.4 ypg. With Ben Roethlisberger back in the lineup today after missing last week’s Sunday Night loss at Baltimore due to concussion-related symptoms, you’re going to see the Steelers clicking on all cylinders offensively.
Pittsburgh is on ATS runs of 12-5 in December and 7-3 at Heinz Field. Oakland is on pointspread slides of 16-37 in its last 53 December games and 10-23-1 in its last 34 non-division road games.
Finally the straight-up winner is 9-1 in Oakland’s last 10 games.
I really don’t see the Raiders winning here, and I know you don’t either.
Lay the wood with the Steelers as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Drew Gordon
San Diego -13' at CLEVELAND
16-8-1 roll over L25 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Chargers/Browns match up.
Don't get caught overthinking this one, as these two teams are going in polar opposite directions. San Diego is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS over their L6 games, and has been playing their best football of the season over their L3 contests! With a win over the Eagles, a dominating effort at the Broncos, and the destruction of the Chiefs last week, is there any question Rivers and company can get it done in Cleveland this afternoon?!
The Browns on the other hand, have lost 6 in a row (3-3 ATS), and when you take away their huge game against Detroit's pitiful defense, they've scored a grand total of just 30 points over their losing streak! Although the Chargers D will be missing a couple players, they're are still more than capable of slowing down this tail-spinning Browns offense. Note, over their L3 games San Diego is allowing just 13 ppg, while averaging a hearty 35 ppg when they have the ball!
Finally, two things Browns-backers should worry about: A. The absence of DT Shaun Rogers, who was placed on IR this past week. While there's no doubt the Browns stop-unit is terrible, losing the services of one of their best players and the anchor of the d-line, makes them even worse (if that's possible). And B. Browns-backers are counting on San Diego to overlook this match up, but that's highly unlikely based on the razor close divisional race in the AFC West. Chargers know they cannot afford a slip-up here, as much tougher match ups are looming on the horizon (at Dallas, vs Cincinnati). In the end, Rivers and company light up a short-handed and sputtering Browns team this afternoon!
Take San Diego over Cleveland in this NFL match up.
3♦ SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
Dallas -1' at N.Y. GIANTS
I'm laying the road chalk in this one, as it's an easy choice in this NFC East clash. No one in their right mind has the Giants, and rightfully so, as the Cowboys have the overall better football team.
I know the Giants are in desperate mode, but that doesn't scare me at all. Not when Dallas is in revenge mode from earlier this season. New York is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this heated rivalry, including a 33-31 victory catching three points in Dallas in Week 2 this season.
Dallas has had extra time to prepare for this one, as it walked over hapless Oakland as the heavy 13-1/2-point home chalk on Thanksgiving. It was Dallas' sixth victory in the last seven games, while the victory snapped a two-game ATS skid.
As much as New York has struggled, it's hard to ignore Dallas' fourth-ranked offense that produces 392.1 yards per game, including 138 on the ground (sixth), not to mention Dallas' defense that allows just 16.5 points per game, second-best in the NFL.
All Dallas today.
5♦ DALLAS COWBOYS
Jimmy Moore
Houston @ Jacksonville
Pick: Houston -1
The Texans are desperate for a win coming off of 3 straight losses and they have found the perfect fodder for a win in the Jags. Jacksonville is 4-12 ATS against division teams with revenge and Houston remembers the loss earlier this season to Jacksonville. Take Houston to get the win in this one.
Tony George
TEN +6 vs IND
The Colts find ways to win ugly, they have all year. That is a sign of a good team, have no illiusions. New England gave them a game on Monday Night Football, the list goes on and on. What you have here in simplest terms, is a basic handicapping rule. The team with the better running game and defense is getting points and are a take in this scenario. Worked for Alabama in the SEC Championship on Saturday if I am not mistaken folks!
Tennessee is a different team than the 0-6 Titans who started out this season, and QB Young has been nearly flawless and RB Brown has been unstoppable. Since losing to New England badly in week 6, the Titans have allowed just 233 yards per game and allowed only 6 TD passes while intercepting 7. I like the hot team here to cover the number.