Tom Stryker
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
If you plan on fading Cincinnati inside the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium, you better have a darn good reason. The Bengals are a blistering 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine home games with their only loss coming by one-point to the Cowboys back in December of last season.
Indianapolis make the trek to the Queen City ripe for a beating too. The Colts picked up a nice home win and cover over the Titans last Sunday and will look to make it two straight. That's not going to happen. As a road dog priced at +5 or more, the Horseshoes are a dismal 4-26 SU and 10-20 ATS including a woeful 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS in this set coming off a division battle.
Historically speaking, this has been a nice money-making spot for Cincy. As a regular season non-division host from game nine out, the Bengals have been a solid Best Bet posting a strong 47-25-1 SU and 45-27-1 ATS record. If Cincinnati is facing a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .500 or better, this situation tightens up to a reliable 27-11 ATS.
Indianapolis is having a ton of issues on the offensive line right now and protecting quarterback Andrew Luck has been a massive problem. Considering the Bengals have been "sack-happy" lately, Luck's effectiveness will be limited. There's too much home versus road dichotomy too pass up. Take Cincinnati.
NFL Betting Picks
St Louis Rams +6
The St Louis Rams enter this Week 14 match up at 5-7 and 2-4 on the road, while the Cardinals are 7-5 on the year and 5-1 at home. These two teams met back on September 8th in St Louis with the Rams winning 27-24. St Louis has won three straight meetings between these two teams over the past two seasons, including winning outright as small underdogs in both meetings last season. Both teams are coming off hard fought losses against good teams. The Rams lost 23-13 against a very good 49ers team in San Francisco last week that broke up a 2 game winning streak, and the Cardinals lost 24-21 to Philadelphia to break up their 4 game winning streak. You can look at some of these two teams common opponents this season and see they aren't too far of one another. Both recently beat the Colts by around 30 points, the Rams lost to Seattle by 5 points at home while the Cardinals lost to them by 12 points at home, the Rams lost @SF by 10 last week and the Cards lost @SF by 12 earlier in the year, both teams took care of Houston and Jacksonville. In what should be an entertaining division game I think 6 points is too many for this Cardinals team to be giving up. The Rams are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 divisional games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 divisional games. Also note when these two teams meet the underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 and the road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Take the Rams with the points.
Wunderdog
Miami at Pittsburgh
Pick: Miami +3.5
Pittsburgh's playoffs hopes took a major hit last week in Baltimore, as their loss to the Ravens left them at 5-7. I think that the 0-4 hole they put themselves in early in the season is one they aren't going to be able to dig themselves out of. At 6-6 Miami is in a spot to control their own playoffs destiny. A win here in Pittsburgh would go a long way to solidify a spot in the postseason. Since opening the season at 3-1, the Dolphins have not lost to anyone by more than 10 points, and four of the five losses since then have come by 4 points or less. You can be sure they will be around at the end here. Pittsburgh can't run the ball, and Big Ben has thrown 10 INTs on the season. The Steel Curtain defense just isn't what it used to be. The Dolphins have come up big off a big defensive game, one where they allowed less than 250 total yards, as they have followed by going 6-0 ATS in their last six. And, the Fins have really stepped things up defensively of late, allowing just 13 points per game over their last three. Losing has bred losing for the Steelers now at 2-5 ATS when following a loss. Barring a Mike Tomlin tackle here, I think Miami at least keeps this one close.
Tony George
Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens
Play: Baltimore Ravens -6
A team at 6-6 is laying a full TD in December with allot on the line? Usually that is a fade for me, but this Sunday the Ravens try and keep pace with the Bengals and stay in the playoff hunt, and the Vikings are the PERFECT opponent for them. When your offense is struggling, which the Ravens is, what a perfect defense to go up against. The Ravens home field is worth 4 points here, where they are a cover machine at home, and this is a dream matchup for them when they need it most.
Minnesota is banged up at QB again, word is a Matt Cassel sighting is near for Sunday, who is not going to do any favors for the offense for the Vikings, and AD at running back faces a defense built for stopping the run at allowing just 3.7 yards per carry. If the Vikings get the run stuffed and we already know they do not have anything near a prolific passing game, and their QB stinks, then how do they contend in this game? In my humble opinion they do not, I see a solid double digit win here for the Ravens.
The Ravens are highly motivated, playing at home in no doubt some rough weather with the better QB, better coach, and better overall team who has something to play for. The Vikes have a lame duck coach, injury issues and quite frankly are a bad football team. The Ravens are also 7-1 ATS at home their last 8.
Jimmy Boyd
Carolina Panthers +3
The Panthers are easily the hottest team in the NFL right now. They have won eight consecutive games, with five of those wins coming by a double-digit margin. They have held seven of those eight opponents to 16 points or less. Carolina is playing for a chance to take sole possession of the NFC South, so motivation will not be an issue.
The Saints are playing beat up on a short week after getting crushed by Seattle on Monday. They have scored over 20 points just once in their last three games, and it seems unlikely they will put up any decent offensive numbers this week against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Carolina is allowing an average of just 13.1 points per game, while scoring 23.7 points per game. They have a dual threat quarterback with Cam Newton, and he figures to be a matchup nightmare for the New Orleans defense.
Chip Chirimbes
Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
A match-up of two NFL 'uglies' as 3-9 Tampa Bay hosts 4-8 Buffalo. With a cold snap covering most of the country the Bills should be happy to be in Florida especially after their disastrous trip to Toronto where the lost to Atlanta A pair of NFL rookies go at it as Tampa Bay's Mike Glennon has the Bucc's looking toward the future while EJ Manual has taken over the reins for Buffalo. Finally, back in the line-up the Bills CJ Spiller helps complete the all alphabet backfield which this week leads to TD's. One key factor that bothers me is that Buffalo is 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games. Still, It's the BILLS!
Joseph D'Amico
St Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Arizona Cardinals -6
The NFC West is owned by Seattle at 11-1, but they have a showdown today with 2nd place, San Francisco, who is 8-4. Arizona is 7-5. And St. Louis is 5-7. Outside of the NFC South's, Saints and Panthers, the NFC is up for grabs. St. Louis beat Arizona, 27-24 back in September. However, over the last month and a half, the Cardinals are 4-1 both SU and ATS while the Rams are 2-4 SU, going 3-3 ATS. Arizona won 4 straight before a heartbreaking 24-21, loss to Philly last week. 'Zona has Carson Palmer's 3189 YP and 19 TDs. Unfortunately they also have his 17 INTs as well. The backfield of Mendenhall and (expected to play) Ellington, have 908 YR and 7 scores. Wideouts, Floyd and Fitzgerald will tear up St. Louis' 19th ranked Passing Defense. The Rams are a mess on offense, ranking 26th in Passing and 25th in Overall Yards. Center, Scott Wells broke his leg last week and is out, leaving poor QB, Kellen Clemons in the lurch. The workload falls upon RB, Zac Stacy. But he must face the 4th best Rush "D" in the NFL, who is also the 7th best in Yards Allowed, and 8th in Overall Points Allowed. Take Arizona here with a small lean. But to ensure a profit this weekend, get all my winners right here.
Marc Lawrence
New York Giants at San Diego Chargers
Pick: New York Giants
Note: Given up for dead in mid-October, the Giants have come back to life like the Pink Floyd tune, wondering, “Where were you when I was burned and broken?” Like San Diego at 5-7 this season, the G-Men must overcome no less than five other teams in order to achieve a Wild Card spot, meaning this game is critical for both teams' chances in this year's playoff picture. Life on the road is what suits New York best with the Giants bringing a 15-3 ATS away record into today's game when playing off an away win. In addition, Eli Manning's sterling 10-3 ATS career mark as a non-division dog in games from December out, including 5-0 ATS when off a win, jumps off the page. The Chargers' non-electrifying 1-6 ATS record as favorites off a loss of 7 or more points, and their 1-9-1 ATS mark when laying points after taking points the previous week, pulls the plug on their chances. In a lights-out effort from Eli, Big Blue takes out powder blue as Diego lays another brick in its stonewall season. We recommend a 1-unit play on the NY Giants.
King Creole
Tennsesse +13
Sharp dog players are already aware that Denver receives a TON of public money each week. Chances are that this game gets bet up even HIGHER on gameday. Denver opened up as a 12.5-pt favorite early in the week. As of Saturday afternoon, the line is anywhere from -11 to -13 points. With Tennessee virtually invisible from the public's radar, it would be wise to 'wait it out' before making our play. You might be able to get +13 or even +14 by being a little patient. It's interesting that despite the square action on Denver every week, it's actually the TITANS who have the better spread record on the season (6-4-2 ATS vs 7-5 ATS).
We already know that DOUBLE-DIGIT dogs like the Titans have profited handsomely this season. But an even BETTER 'play on' situation has been for larger dogs playing off a loss (like Ten) against an opponent off a win like Den).
11-3 ATS since October / 7-0 ATS last 5 weeks: All non-division underdogs of 6 > points off a SU loss (TEN) vs any opponent off a SU win (Den).
Tennessee is off a road loss vs division rival Indianapolis...
5-0 ATS since 2006: All AFC non-division DOUBLE DIGIT road dogs (Ten) playing off a SUATS division road dog loss.
This is the third STRAIGHT road game in a row for the visiting Titans...
10-2 ATS since 1987: All non-division dogs of +5 > pts in their third STRAIGHT road game (TEN) playing off a SU loss. These teams have gone 6-1 ATS since 1998.
In their last two games (vs KC and NENG), the Broncos scored 35 and 31 points...
0-5 ATS since 2009: All non-division BIG home favorites of -12 > points who scored 31 11 points since 1983 when the OU line is 35 > points.
The BRONCOS have gone 1-6 ATS since 2003 as non-division favorites of > 10 points vs any opponent off a SU loss.
AC Dinero
Buffalo vs. Buccaneers
Play: Under 43
Both of these teams are a bit sub par stopping the run, which is always nice when playing under the total, because the clock keeps running, thus fewer plays and scoring opportunities. Also in our favor is the inability for either team to hit big plays in the passing game, averaging less than 6.0 ypa. Both are terrible converting 3rd down, averaging under 36%. Conversely, both are OK at defending 3rd down, at just under 40%. Overall, the under is a nice play.
Rob Vinciletti
New York Giants vs. San Diego Chargers
Play: New York Giants +3.5
We have 2 teams headed in different directions here as the Giants have won 5 of the last 6 after an 0-6 start ands San Diego looks dead in the water as far as the playoffs go. The Giants are 4-1 vs losing teams while the Chargers are 1-3 vs teams under .500. Teams like the Giants on the road that have the same record as their opponent have covered 7 of 8 this season if they are off a road game. The Giants made a nice comeback last week to beat Washington and cash as a 6* for us after getting down 14 in the first quarter. The Giants have covered 8 straight on the road off a win if they were losing after 3 quarters last out, as they carry the momentum. They have also covered 15 of the last 16 on the road off a win of 7 or more if they has a receiver with six or more catches. The Chargers have failed to cover 11 of 12 vs an opponent that has 2 or more turnovers in their last game and are 1-6 straight up at home with the total of 45.5 to 49. Take the points with The NY. Giants.
Teddy Covers
Miami vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Under
Both the Steelers and the Dolphins are fundamentally flawed football teams, yet both remain very ‘live’ in the AFC Playoff picture. The 6-6 Dolphins are currently tied with Baltimore for the #6 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers rank just one game behind with four left to play.
That being said, neither team can like their chances if they lose this week. We should expect a maximum intensity playoff-level showdown as a result; a classic recipe for Under bettors.
The Steelers chances took a real blow last week with their loss at Baltimore, unable to convert the game tying two point try at the end of regulation. But that defeat didn’t end their season, not by any stretch of the imagination. QB Ben Roethlisberger following the loss: “I don't expect any quit. We haven't quit to this point… I'm going to fight my butt off all the way to the end.”
Both teams have serious and significant offensive line issues. Miami is the only team in the NFL to have scored 27 or less in every game this season. QB Ryan Tannehill has taken more sacks than any QB in the NFL this year. The Dolphins offensive line, already without Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito, is likely to be without starting guard John Jerry this week. Leading rushers Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas average less than four yards per carry and barely 75 yards per game between them.
The Steelers offensive line has been a disaster for extended stretches this year, and their cluster injury problems are getting worse, not better. Pittsburgh will be down to their third string center this week after Fernando Velasco just went on IR. Guard David DeCastro and tackle Kelvin Beachum are both banged up as well, neither a sure thing to suit up on Sunday. Top back Le’Veon Bell isn’t healthy either, bad news for a team that has averaged a paltry 3.3 yards per carry this year – only Baltimore and Jacksonville are worse.
While both offenses continue to struggle to put touchdowns on the board, both defenses are in excellent current form. Miami has given up only five touchdowns in their last four games, a stop unit that has consistently stepped up in the red zone. And it’s surely worth noting that the Dolphins QB rating allowed of 72.7 ranks among the top three pass defenses in the NFL this year. The Steelers offense ranks #27 in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage, consistently settling for field goals.
Meanwhile, the Steelers stop unit is well above the league average at forcing red zone field goal attempts, including last week’s shutdown effort against the Ravens. For a Dolphins offense that has been mediocre at best this season, playing in the cold on the lousy Heinz Field surface, it’s easy to picture another sluggish offensive showing here.
Steve Merril
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Tennessee Titans +13
Tennessee will travel to Denver to take on the Broncos on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast is not pretty as an extreme arctic front has moved into Denver and game-time temperatures are expected to be 15-degrees or less with a chance of snow. Dating back to 1998, Peyton Manning is just 1-8 in games below 30 degrees. “It is what it is,” Manning said when asked about the weather record. “We'll handle it just like another team has to.” Tennessee is just 5-7 SU this season, but six of the Titans seven losses this season have come by 9 points or less, and that is important to note since they are getting double digits in this game against the Broncos. Tennessee’s offense does a couple of things well enough to keep them in this game and keep Denver’s offense off the field. The Titans average 28.4 rushes per game while gaining 4.1 yards per rush attempt. They also covert 44.1% of their third down attempts which ranks them #6 in the NFL. The Titans can move the chains and control the clock which is a key ingredient to have when facing a potent offense.
Denver is simply a terrible situational and scheduling spot, especially since they are laying a lot of points. The Broncos played at San Diego, hosted Kansas City, played at New England, and then went to Kansas City last week. Now they host a non-conference game with another divisional game versus San Diego next week. This is the ultimate flat spot, sandwich game on Denver’s schedule and we expect them to simply go thru the motions. Denver’s defense remains much maligned as they are giving up 26.4 points per game to offenses that only average 22.8 points per game. The Broncos have given up 62 points in their last two games. That’s a weak defensive profile for a double digit favorite, especially with bad weather forecasted. Tennessee is holding opponents to just 5.2 yards per play (#14), including 4.1 yards per rush (#14) and 6.6 yards per pass attempt (#15). Tennessee does enough things right that will allow them to hang in this game. Denver’s defensive issues combined with the poor scheduling and situational spot along with Manning’s poor record in cold weather games makes taking the big points with the Titans the way to go in this game on Sunday afternoon.
Kyle Hunter
Panthers vs. Saints
Play: Under 47
The Carolina Panthers have the best defense in the NFL right now, and the New Orleans Saints defense is the most improved defense in the league. I still don't believe the Panthers offense is elite, and the Saints defense will likely bounce back nicely from a poor showing last week. I think this line should be around 44 or 45, so I see a little value on the under.
Jesse Schule
Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -11
The Broncos haven't had any trouble winning at home with a 6-0 record, and all six of those games have been decided by double digits. After beating a previously undefeated Chiefs team by a score of 27-17, it's tough to expect the Titans to put up much of a fight here.
Some might look at Tennessee's defense, and note that they rank 7th in the NFL against the pass. I suggest we throw that stat out the window, because they haven't yet played a team with an elite quarterback, and this is Denver.
Ryan Fitzpatrick completed 21-of-37 passes for 201 yards and a TD against the Colts, but he was picked off three times in the 22-14 loss.
Chris Johnson hasn't run for 100 yards in any of his last four starts, and Denver's defense is particularly tough against the run. People will talk a lot about how the Broncos defense struggles against the pass, but I still think this defense is better than it gets credit for.
I expect to see the Broncos win another home game by a large margin.