Red Dog Sports
Maryland vs. GeorgeWashington
Play: GeorgeWashington +3
The Colonials are 7-1 and have only lost to Marquette. They are led by Armwood, Larson, Savage, Creek and McDonald. They have beaten Creighton, Rutgers and Miami. Maryland is off a double digit loss at Ohio State and is 5-3. The Terps are led by Dez Wells, Faust and Layman. This game will be played on a neutral floor. Take a look at the underdog as our free pick.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Eagles -2½
The Eagles come in playing their best football of the season. They have posted four straight wins, including blowout road victories at Oakland (49-20) and at Green Bay (27-13). They also beat Washington (24-16) at home in a game that was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate. Then, they beat a very good Arizona (24-21) team at home last week behind a solid defensive effort.
The defense has been playing unbelievable over the past eight weeks, surrendering 21 or fewer points in eight consecutive games. The Eagles have given up an average of just 17.9 points per game over this span, which is one of the best marks in the entire league. Couple that with the play of Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy, and you have a deadly combination.
Foles still hasn’t thrown an interception this season. He is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,791 yards with 19 touchdowns, while also rushing for 149 yards and two scores. His ability to escape the pocket when he needs to is vastly underrated. McCoy ranks second in the league in rushing with 1,088 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 4.7 yards per rush. These two lead a Philadelphia unit that ranks 3rd in the league in total offense at 403.6 yards per game.
Matthew Stafford is much better indoors inside the dome at Ford Field than he is on the road. He has thrown 70 touchdown passes and 42 interceptions in 36 games indoors in his career. Stafford has only thrown 37 touchdown passes against 26 interceptions on the road lifetime. Foles has played all of his games outdoors this season, which makes his 19-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio that much more impressive.
Detroit is 2-11 against the spread when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the past three seasons. The Lions are 0-7 against the number in their last seven games off a win by 10 points or more. Detroit is 5-15-3 against the spread in its last 23 games after scoring 30 or more points in its previous game. The Eagles have gone 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in their last six meetings with the Lions. Bet Philadelphia Sunday.
Andy Iskoe
Pittsburgh -3.5
It's very possible that 9-7 will be good enough to earn the second AFC Wild Card which means the Steelers would have to run the table to achieve that record. At 6-6 Miami is in better position which makes this a virtual elimination game. Neither team has a strong offense but both are solid on defense, especially against the pass. Both teams have also been money makers of late, going a combined 7-1 ATS over their last 4 games. The defenses figure to control the tempo with both offenses likely forced to rely more on the run than on the pass. However, the Steelers do have the edge at QB with Roethlisberger over Tannehill. Pittsburgh also has extra rest following their loss at Baltimore on Thanksgiving night while the Dolphins are at a disadvantage with a second straight road game at a chilly northern locale. The overall statistical profiles show these teams as being fairly even, which also is reflected in the line. Both teams have tough Divisional revenge home games next week. The edges in experience on both sides of the football and on the sidelines point to the hosts.
Charlie Scott
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Kansas City Chiefs -3
I expect the Redskins who aren't very good and have nothing to play for to come out flat Today, after blowing a 14-0 lead on Sunday Night Football to division rival Giants last week. Meanwhile KC needs a win. While the Chiefs play smart, disciplined Football, the Redskins play undisciplined bad tackling Football.
SPORTS WAGERS
SAN FRANCISCO -2½ over Seattle
Wow! Did you see what the Seahawks did to the Saints on Monday Night Football?! So did everyone else and we’re always quick to point out that the worst time to step in on a team is after a game like that. A win here by the 11-1 Seahawks just formalizes that they will be hosting the NFC Championship after beating whatever wildcard dregs bubble up in round two. A loss here wouldn't change that much since the Seahawks still would have a two game lead over the 49ers but that’s not to say that Seattle won’t be motivated. However, the Seachickens are just a little too high for our liking. Every sportscast, every NFL preview show, every sports talk radio show has been raving all week about how this Seattle team can’t be beat. Make no mistake - these Seahawks are a great team in all facets and in games that they win by smaller margins are usually because they know they don't have to try too hard to win. It would come as no surprise to see a lesser effort here from Seattle after they have already destroyed the 49ers once this year and after that highly charged up win over the Saints on Monday.
Besides, the 49ers are no pushovers and they absolutely have something to prove here. This is a team with outstanding defense that has allowed just 52 points against over the past four games against Carolina, New Orleans, Washington and St. Louis. The 49ers are one of the best pass defenses in the league and have only allowed three touchdowns by a quarterback in the last five home games almost with marginal yardage in most cases. Russell Wilson will have to throw more than eight completions this time and even then he threw 19 times for those eight catches (Wilson passed for only 142 yards and one score on his eight completions in the first meeting). Colin Kaepernick was supposed to have a big year but that’s not been the case at all. Frankly, the entire 49ers team has been inconsistent and it’s no secret that the 49ers have not defeated a playoff team yet this year while losing to every team that is likely going to the playoffs (Indy, Seattle, Carolina and New Orleans). Now they’re spotting spots to the best team in the NFL? The oddsmakers didn’t err here. They are very aware that this late Sunday afternoon game is going to attract a ton of action. The oddmakers also know they could have made this game a pick-em and not swayed a single wager. They’re gambling that the 49ers are going to play their best game in two years and/or the Seahawks will not be great on Sunday. Indeed the Seahawks have appeal taking back points but if the better team won every time out we’d all be rich. When the oddsmakers make a statement, like they are here, you would be wise to listen. That statement says to lay the points because they are begging you to take them.
N.Y. JETS -3 over Oakland
There were a lot of people on the Jets at home last week against the Dolphins and New York got smoked. In fact, it was ugly. There were a lot of people on Dallas to cover against Oakland on Thanksgiving Thursday and the Raiders shot out to a 14-0 lead and eventually got a backdoor cover. That sets this one up as a great buy-low, sell high opportunity. Not many are buying the Jets right now and having to spot points with them makes them even less appealing. However, the Jets get Jeremy Kerley and Kellen Winslow back and that pair really helped Geno Smith with his early success. It’s also worth noting that the Jets run defense is ranked first and that’s a big problem for the Raiders with Darren McFadden out and Rashad Jennings limited after suffering a concussion last week. Jennings status is probable but he has not practiced all week.
There are other factors to consider as well. The Raiders have never been a good team traveling to the East Coast for an early start. This one kicks off at 1:00 PM EST. Furthermore, it’s the Raiders fourth road game in the past five weeks and they have the Chiefs on deck in Oakland next week. Raiders HC Dennis Allen indicated that he will continue to use Matt McGloin but he was held scoreless in Dallas and only passed for one score when the Titans visited. McGloin was impressive versus the Texans like everyone else but he's become average pretty fast. The Raiders have had a tough road schedule but they’re still just 1-4 on the road. This is perhaps their easiest road game of the season in terms of competition but it’s perhaps their toughest in terms of situation. That situation is as follows: traveling for the fourth time in five weeks to an early game on the East Coast, in cold weather, with the Chiefs on deck after playing Dallas on Thanksgiving. That works for us.
CINCINNATI -7 over Indianapolis
We’re not usually interested in spotting 7 points to a team with a winning record that leads their division but this one warrants it for so many reasons. First, the Colts have defeated Tennessee twice in the past three weeks to all but clinch the division, as they have a three-game lead with four games remaining. Both those wins over the Titans were come from behind wins that the Colts had no business winning. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to Indy’s win over Denver in Week 7 for the Colts' last good game. Including the Denver game two months ago, the Colts defense is allowing an average of 30 points a game and that’s after playing Houston, St. Louis, Tennessee twice and Arizona, not exactly the cream of the crop. After the game against Denver, Andrew Luck has thrown two TD passes, five picks, has a 66.6 passer rating and has been sacked 29 times. Post Reggie Wayne, Andrew Luck has thrown just one touchdown pass in three weeks while only averaging around 200 yards per game. In two games outside of their own division since losing Wayne, the Colts lost to St. Louis, 38-8 and to Arizona, 40-11. The Colts are an ugly 8-4. They are an indoor team about to play in a bad-weather game after two miracle wins in the past three weeks. The Colts can’t run, they can’t pass and they can’t protect their QB protect with that weak offensive line. That bodes well for the Bengals.
Cincinnati has recorded 18 sacks over its past four games and figure to bring extreme pressure here against the soft line of the Colts. The Bengals are not only 5-0 at home but they also beat the Patriots earlier this year while holding Tom Brady and Bunch to six points. The offense is running as well now as it ever has with an average of 140 yards per game over the past month. The defense has quietly been great with only one opponent ever scoring more than 24 points on them and that was against Aaron Rodgers and the Pack back in Week 3. Incidentally, Cinci won that game also. The Bengals are one of the AFC’s best teams. They are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, they are physically tough and they don’t make too many mistakes. This game is a complete and utter mismatch and with a chance to put the rest of the division well behind them, the Bengals figure to put forth another great effort at home. This time, the lucky Colts will have no comeback in them.
SPORTS WAGERS
N.Y. RANGERS -½ +107 over Washington
Regulation only. Kudos to the Devils last night for one of the gutsiest performances of the season. Playing their fifth game in seven days and falling behind 2-0 in New York, the Devils rallied for a 4-3 victory. They deserved that win but it’s not going to deter us from coming right back on the Rangers tonight. The Devils have allowed the fewest shots on net in the entire league but the Capitals are not close to being in that same class. In fact, Washington’s defense is among the worst in the NHL, allowing the opposition the third most time spent in their zone in the league. That doesn’t bode well against the aggressive play of the Rangers attack. Washington has just three wins over their past eight games and were outshot in each of those games, including last night’s 5-2 win at home over Nashville.
The Rangers figure to bounce back here. They will see a much softer group than the one they faced last night. Furthermore, the Rangers own the Capitals, having defeated them in five of the past six games and six of the past seven in New York. In fact, in the past three games against the Rangers, Washington has not scored even one goal, having been outscored 8-0 over that span. Last night’s loss to New Jersey can’t be sitting well with the Blue Shirts. The good news is that they get right back at it tonight against a team that they are vastly superior to and that they have a huge psychological edge against.
Colorado +131 over VANCOUVER
OT included. The Canucks are playing some pretty good hockey right now with four wins over their past five games but in no way do they deserve this billing over the Avalanche in this situation. You see, Vancouver has had three road trips this year of four games or more. Upon returning home from said trips they won all three times with the latest coming on Friday night when they defeated the Coyotes 3-2 in OT. The Canucks blew a 2-0, third period lead and looked dead tired in the third. In the second game back after a trip, the Canucks lost both times and that’s the situation they once again face here.
The Avs are still playing well despite losing in Edmonton last week by a score of 8-2. Those games happen but Colorado has still picked up 12 out of a possible 16 points over their last eight games. Aside from losing to Edmonton, its only other defeat over that span was against the Blue Notes. Over that same span, the Avalanche defeated Minnesota twice, Chicago and Los Angeles among others. It’s also worth noting that the Avs have won 10 of 13 games on the road and as a pooch in this price range they offer up nothing but value.
Pass NBA & CBB
DAVE COKIN
NEW YORK GIANTS AT SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
PLAY: NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5
A pair of 5-7 teams hook up today as the Giants visit the Chargers. It’s basically a win or else situation for each team. The Chagers would not be dead with a loss, but it would certainly compromise their chances of getting that second AFC wild card. There’s no such leash for the Giants. A loss here and they’re relegated to play out the string mode.
On the numbers, San Diego is supposed to win. Despite the teams owning identical records, the Chargers are clearly the better squad on the metrics. But that’s actually part of the reason I’m siding with the apparently weaker team today.
What this basically comes down to for me is that the lesser team is finding ways to win games. The Giants have gone 5-1 after starting 0-6. They’re not impressing anyone, but they’re displaying that veteran savvy and sneaking away with wins.
The Chargers are just the opposite type of team. This squad has literally had a chance to win every game they’ve played this season. But on too many occasions they’ve made the critical error at precisely the wrong time, and that explains the losing record.
So this is more on feel than actual data. It’s certainly a possibility that the Chargers will play like the team they’ve shown the potential to be, and will win the game comfortably. But I’d rather side with the team that’s grinding out the wins right now and that’s the Giants. I’m satisfied that taking more than a FG is good enough to at least earn a spread win.
Tony Karpinski
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Play: Green Bay Packers -3
Atlanta has just been plain old awful, they cant open up a passing attack, despite Matt Ryan’s attempt at keeping the ball moving, and his season, which has been very good, even despite the injuries the team has had on the WR side of things. They can't defend worth a lick, and they can't run the ball worth anything either. They are coming off a squeaker last week vs. Buffalo, not a good sign heading into Green Bay, by any means. Slumping Green Bay comes in with its own share of issues, mainly with their defense, they can't stop many teams either, 7 times they have given up 27 in a game. Having lost 4 in a row, they need this win terribly. But only 2 of those times have been at home. Eddie Lacey will be the main man in this match up, expect 23 carries and 130+ yards, at home, vs a team that cannot stop the run.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5
I'll roll with the Steelers at home as I believe the extra couple days of preparation time will pay dividends. The Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Steelers are an awesome 46-24 ATS as a a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992, winning these games by an average of 7.9 points. Pittsburgh is the better team, especially on its home field in this well-prepared spot.
Jim Feist
Indiana Pacers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder
Two of the best teams in the NBA matchup here on Sunday evening as the Indiana Pacers travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder. The Pacers have lost just twice this season and have a 17-2 S/U mark and 14-5 ATS record. Oklahoma City is 14-4 and have won 9-1 in their last 10 games. But the main reason I'm backing the Thunder tonight is the fact that the Pacers are playing the second of a back-to-back road series and this will also be the teams fifth straight away contest. In the Pacers two losses this season, both came in the second of a back to back road spot, just like tonight. In fact, the Pacers are just 1-3 ATS this season in the second of a back-to-back matchup. Both teams are excellent clubs, but a strong team like OK City catching the Pacers in a weary road spot is too much to pass on.
Harry Bondi
Buffalo / Tampa Bay Over 42
In mid-October, the Bucs went on a 6-0 “over” run after opening up the offense and letting new QB Mike Glennon get creative. The last two weeks they have returned to “under” form, but that was against two of the better rush defenses in the league (Carolina and Detroit). Today they get to feast on Buffalo’s 24th-ranked rush defense, which gives up 4.2 yards per rush. The Tampa Bay defense, meanwhile, has given up 27 points or more in six of its last eight games and Buffalo has gone over the total in 20 of its last 30 games when listed as the underdog. Go over.
Bob Balfe
Carolina Panthers +3.5
The Panthers have won 8 in a row and are playing solid football on both sides of the ball. I know New Orleans is tough to beat at home, but they are not going to have an easy time coming off that loss in Seattle Monday night. I can’t go against a team that has a huge winning streak like the Panthers. Cam Newton is playing excellent and I believe this is the team to beat in the NFC right now outside of the Seahawks. New Orleans has flaws on defense as it showed last week. Take Carolina.
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NY JETS (-2.5) 21 Oakland 17FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With a new QB in Matt McGloin, the Raiders have played competitively recently, going 2-1 ATS since he took over, and outplayed the Cowboys for a half on Thanksgiving before finally falling 24-31. The game was lost in the trenches as the Raiders could only muster 51 rushing yards at 2.1 ypr while the Cowboys racked up 145 yards at 5.0 ypr. They now travel to face the Jets who have my #1 ranked rush defense. Adjusting for Terrelle Pryor’s rushing numbers, the Raiders rush attack is average and won’t be able to generate much on the ground in this matchup. Attacking the Jets through the air is the smart move here as they allow 257 yards at 6.4 yps to teams that average 239 yards at 6.0 yps, and I look for the Raiders to try and exploit the Jets weak coverage. I’m not sure that they can do it with undrafted rookie QB Matt McGloin at the helm, and without a strong rushing threat. Rex Ryan can make life difficult on inexperienced QB’s and I expect the Raiders to have some offensive problems in this game as Rex will attack an offensive line that has been shuffled all season and potentially force the QB into some bad decisions. On the other side, the Jets have had all sorts of offensive problems of their own recently, with QB Geno Smith playing poorly and an offense that is averaging 13.0 points over their last seven games. The Raiders qualify in a 244-145-8 situation while they benefit from a negative 44-76-1 situation that plays against the Jets here. However, my model favors the Jets (-5.4) so with conflicting numbers, I’ll lean with the model and the Jets minus the points.
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Miami (+3) 20 PITTSBURGH 19FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami comes into this game off of an impressive 23-3 win in New Jersey against the Jets and with a 6-6 record are right in the middle of the wild-card playoff picture. In a dominating performance last week, the Dolphins outgained the Jets 454 yards at 5.7 yppl to 177 yards at 3.3 yppl while registering four sacks and generating three turnovers. On the other side, the Steelers also had a shot at improving their playoff position last Thursday but lost to the Ravens 20-22 in Baltimore. With the loss, Pittsburgh is now 5-7 on the season and while still in the hunt, have dropped to the 9th seed. Needless to say, this is an important game for both teams. From a scheduling perspective, The Steelers are in the middle of a primetime divisional sandwich, having just played the Ravens on Thanksgiving night and next week hosting the Bengals on Sunday night. It won’t be a letdown spot though, as Pittsburgh realizes the importance of this game and knows that it is essentially an elimination game for them if they lose. The Steelers have played much better at home recently (3-0 last three with wins over Baltimore, Buffalo and Detroit) but the Dolphins have played well at times on the road this year as well (3-3 SU). Injuries to the Steelers offensive line are a cause for concern with a matchup against what can be a challenging front seven of the Dolphins. Miami qualifies in a good 135-71-11 situation and as a result I’ll lean with the Dolphins plus the points.
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PHILADELPHIA (-2.5) 30 Detroit 27FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Off of an impressive 40-10 Thanksgiving Day win that has them sitting in sole possession of first place in the NFC North, the Lions will try to make it two in a row as they travel to Philadelphia to take on the surging Eagles. The Lions dominated a beat up Packer team last week, outgaining them 563 yards at 7.6 yppl to 126 total yards at 3.0 yppl for the Packers, as they racked up seven sacks and generated three turnovers in the win. They’ll get a tougher test this week against a Philadelphia team that is on a four game win streak and will look to make some ground on the Cowboys (Dallas owns the tie-breaker). Philadelphia is coming off of a 24-21 home win against the previously surging Cardinals in a game that Arizona made closer in the second half after trailing 24-7. From a statistical perspective these teams are pretty similar as they both possess very good offenses, rush defenses that are better than average and below average pass defenses. I don’t have any situations in play on this game and don’t have a strong opinion either way but based on my model (Philly -3.1) I’ll lean with the Eagles.
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Minnesota (+6.5) 19 BALTIMORE 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In their 23-20 OT win last week against the Bears, Minnesota did what it does best, and that is run the football. They gained 246 rushing yards at 6.2 ypr on their way to racking up 496 total yards in a good offensive performance. The bad news for Minnesota fans is that their defense gave up 480 yards at 7.4 yppl to the Bears and they were fortunate to win the game after Bears HC Trestman made a questionable decision in attempting a 47 yard field goal to win the game on second down in OT. With the win, the Vikings are now 3-8-1 on the season and travel to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that is in the thick of the playoff race after their 22-20 Thanksgiving Day victory over the Steelers. The Ravens have historically been tough to beat at home, where they are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS this year. Meanwhile, their opponent this week has not been able to win on the road (neutral site in London game included) with just a 1-5-1 mark SU, but a 4-3 ATS record. The Ravens have had a pretty good run defense this season (allowing 102 yards at 3.9 ypr to teams that gain 106 yards at 4.2 ypr on average), but they will be facing a potent Minnesota ground game that is averaging 133 yards at 5.0 ypr. It looks like Matt Cassel is back at QB for the Vikings as he is their best option (but not a huge upgrade) and he will face a Ravens pass defense that has been better than average against the pass. Baltimore may get TE Dennis Pitta back in this game and he should help their pass offense which has struggled this year but face a suspect Vikings secondary that has been injury riddled this season. The Vikings benefit from a 44-76-1 situation that plays against the Ravens and my model only favors Baltimore by (-6.0). I’ll lean with Minnesota plus the points.
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Buffalo (+2.5) 21 TAMPA BAY 20FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bills come into this game off of a 31-34 loss to the Falcons in Toronto that dropped them to 4-8 on the season and 1-5 in games not in Buffalo. The Bills have a very good rushing attack that averages 141 yards at 4.4 ypr against teams that allow 107 yards at 4.1 ypr and will face a Tampa Bay team that allows 109 yards at 4.5 ypr against teams that gain 113 yards at 4.4 ypr so they should have some success on the ground. Bills QB EJ Manuel has played much better since coming off the bye and followed up a good game against the Jets two weeks ago with another good performance last week (210 yards at 6.6 yps and no interceptions). He’ll face a Tampa defense that has been about average overall. On the other side, the Bucs come off of a 27-6 loss to the Panthers in Carolina in a game where they were dominated (outgained 207 yards at 4.6 yppl to 426 yards at 6.8 yppl for the Panthers). I don’t have any situations in play on this game and my model only favors the Bucs here by (-0.7). With line value and some favorable match-ups I'll lean with the Bills plus the points.
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GREEN BAY (-3.5) 26 Atlanta 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With their 34-31 win in Toronto last week, the Falcons stopped a five game losing streak where they lost by an average score of 14.8 – 30.4. Matt Ryan was sacked six times behind a bad Atlanta offensive line, but the Falcons were able to generate 423 total yards at 5.1 yppl in the win. With two Bills fumbles late in the game and in OT, the Falcons were a bit lucky to escape with the victory. This week they travel to take on the Packers in Green Bay with Matt Flynn getting the start at QB after Aaron Rodgers was ruled out. Flynn didn’t inspire much confidence last week in the 10-40 Thanksgiving Day loss to the Lions, but his offensive line was equally as bad as they were matched up against a strong Detroit defensive line. There are some injuries along the Packers line this week as well but fortunately they are facing a Falcons defensive line that has not played very well this season. I don’t have any situations in play here and my model adjusted for Matt Flynn at QB only favors the Packers by (-3.2). Injuries have really hurt both of these teams this year but with the Packers playing for their playoff lives, while the dome-style Falcons have to travel to play in the cold off of a win, I’ll lean with the Packers minus the points.
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Tennessee (+11.5) 20 DENVER 27FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Titans lost a big game in Indianapolis last week 14-22 that dropped them to 5-7 on the season and, while still in the playoff hunt, are now positioned as the 8th seed. Tennessee outgained the Colts 347 yards at 4.7 yppl to 266 yards at 4.4 yppl but a -3 turnover margin was too much to overcome. Season numbers show the Titans to be about average overall from the line of scrimmage and will face a Broncos team here that is well above average, particularly in the passing game (averaging 337 yards at 8.1 yps against teams that allow 255 yards at 6.6 yps). Denver is coming off of a huge 35-28 win in Kansas City that has given them the lead in the division and the #1 seed in the AFC. After three big games (Kansas City, New England, Kansas City) the Broncos return home here to face a sub .500 Titans team before playing on Thursday night next week against division rival San Diego. With a lot of focus on the past three games and a short week primetime game on deck, this looks like a flat spot for Denver. In addition, Peyton Manning has not played well in cold weather in his career and the forecast is for highs in the mid-teens and lows in the low single digits. The Titans also benefit from a negative 14-44 situation that plays against the Broncos in this spot but being on the road for a third consecutive week after a tough loss to the Colts last week that the Titans were treating like a playoff game, I’m not sure how excited they will be to play in Denver in the freezing cold. This is a lot of points to offer a Titans team that has an opportunity to make it competitive so I’ll lean with the Titans to keep it within the large number.
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Seattle (+2.5) 21 SAN FRANCISCO 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle comes into this game off of a huge 34-7 home win on Monday night against the Saints in a game that likely decided the #1 seed in the NFC. It was a dominating performance from the Seahawks as they outgained the Saints 429 yards at 6.2 yppl to just 188 yards at 3.4 yppl. With the amount of excitement and energy Seattle used early in this game and the hype surrounding it, Seattle may be a bit flat as they head to San Francisco this week. Generating that sort of intensity is difficult to reproduce on a weekly basis so I expect a bit of a drop-off as they take to the road (where they have not been nearly as good historically as they are at home) with the number one seed all but locked up. On the other side, the 49ers have been waiting for this game after getting blasted 3-29 earlier this year in Seattle, and are highly motivated to beat a hated division rival. They also really need this game to advance their playoff positioning in a competitive NFC race and have been getting injured players back recently (specifically WR Michael Crabtree). Both of these teams do a lot well, but with an offensive line that is banged up, the 49ers run game has struggled recently (only averaging 81 yards at 3.0 ypr the last three games) and if they can’t run effectively against the Seahawks it could be a long day. Motivational indicators point to this being a good spot for the 49ers and a bad spot for the Seahawks, but unfortunately my numbers all support the Seahawks here. Seattle benefits from a negative 164-264-16 statistical indicator that plays against the 49ers and my model likes the Seahawks quite a bit here (-3.5) as well. As a result, it will be a pass for me on this one, with a lean to the Seahawks plus the points.
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SAN DIEGO (-3.5) 29 NY Giants 21FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With the Giants 24-17 win in Washington last week, they remain in the playoff hunt and will look to improve their position this week against a Chargers team that finds itself in a similar situation. While the playoffs are a longshot for both of these teams, this is essentially an elimination game as the loser will likely fall completely out of the picture. Both teams should be able to move the ball through the air in this game as the Chargers have an excellent passing offense (averaging 292 yards at 7.7 yps against teams that allow 248 yards at 6.4 yps) and a terrible pass defense (allowing 270 yards at 7.4 yps to teams that gain 240 yards at 6.2yps on average), and while the Giants have not performed to expectations offensively this season, they still have some weapons that can exploit the San Diego secondary. I don’t have any situations that apply but my model likes the Chargers in this game (-7.7) and as a result I’ll lean their way.
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ARIZONA (-6) 24 St. Louis 17FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rams enter this game off of a 13-23 loss in San Francisco in a game that the 49ers controlled throughout. Final stats show a closer game than it actually was (339 yards at 5.6 yppl for the 49ers to 312 yards at 4.7 yppl for the Rams) but some of those yards (80) were given up on a Rams TD drive with less than three minutes left as the 49ers were looking to make some defensive concessions in exchange for time off the clock. While the Rams had difficulty stopping the 49ers passing attack, they played the 49ers bread and butter run game pretty well as they allowed just 84 yards at 2.9 ypr. Overall, the Rams are a below average team on both sides of the ball, and possess a pass defense that is well below average (allow 248 yards at 7.1 yps to teams that gain 227 yards at 6.3 yps on average). This week they travel to Arizona to take on the Cardinals, fresh off their first loss in their past five games last week against the Eagles. Arizona should have some opportunities in the passing game here as long as they can keep the very good St. Louis pass rushers at bay. If they can, they should be able to exploit some good match-ups and poor secondary play by the Rams. The Cardinals have been very good at home this season with a 5-1 record (4-2 ATS), while the Rams have not performed as well away (2-4 SU and ATS). St. Louis qualifies in a good 179-83-5 situation but my model likes the Cardinals here (-10.8). With conflicting numbers, I’ll lean slightly with the model and predict a seven point Cardinals victory.
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NEW ORLEANS (-3) 28 Carolina 22FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Panthers come into this game on an eight game win streak, looking to make it nine, in their most important game in a long time. With a win, the Panthers will be in sole possession of first place in the NFC South with three games to go and after a 1-3 start, that is quite an accomplishment. After beating up on some struggling opponents early in their win streak (Vikings, Rams, Bucs, Falcons), the Panthers came through with big wins over the 49ers and Patriots in the past month and have announced themselves as legitimate contenders. They will have a tough task here against a Saints team that is unbelievably good at home and are coming off of an embarrassing 7-34 loss on Monday night to the Seahawks. This season the Saints are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home, winning by an average of 33.2 – 15.8. After two early season road losses to the Bills and the Cardinals, the Panthers have won their last four away games, overcoming first half deficits in San Francisco and Miami. From an adjusted yppl perspective, the Saints have been very good with an offense that generates 398 yards at 6.2 yppl against teams that allow 354 yards at 5.4 yppl. They’ll be matched up here with a Carolina defense that, while good in allowing only 290 yards per game at 5.0 yppl, have done it against teams that average 333 yards at 5.3 yppl. Carolina has been a highly efficient team this season and a good percentage of that efficiency can be traced to their +10 net turnover margin, tied for third in the league (+5 in net fumbles). In a very difficult environment to play in, I don’t expect their (+.83) turnover rate to continue in this game and if it doesn’t, they may have a tough time keeping up with a motivated Saints team. I’d like to play the Saints here, especially now that the line has dropped to -3 as my line favors them (-8.8), but the Panthers qualify in a good 280-170-14 situation. I like the Saints minus the points.
Chris Jordan
My free play for today will be to take the Kansas City Chiefs over the Washington Redskins, as I like the road team to get it done. And yes, I want you buying the half point in this game, I mean, why not? It's 3 everywhere and it only makes sense to do so.
Look, I know Washington's last win came an AFC West team - the San Diego Chargers on Nov. 3 in this same venue - but now the Redskins have lost straight both straight-up and against the number.
And now they have to play a Kansas City team that went through arguably the hardest three-game stretch of any team this season. Believe me, those two losses to Denver and the one at home against the Chargers is not indicative of how the Chiefs play. Kansas City now lowers its standards and comes down to the struggling Redskins' level. This is the immunization booster Kansas City needs.
Let's not forget Kansas City coach Andy Reid knows the Redskins and knows the lay of the land from all his time leading the Philadelphia Eagles. He will have known all week how to prepare his Chiefs. He also knows his Chiefs can't afford another loss, and will have them ready to fire on all cylinders against the hapless 'Skins.
The Chiefs have won and covered four in a row when laying points with a suitcase in hand, while the Redskins are mired in a 4-14 rut straight-up when catching points at home. Kansas City rolls here.
4♦ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Detroit Lions to cool off Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Philly has won their last 4 games straight up, including their second in a row at home after losing game after game at the Linc. The Eagles are just 1-13 against the spread their last 14 home games, including a home overtime loss to the Lions last October.
Detroit has been off since their satisfying home romp on Turkey Day over Green Bay, and the NFC North is now their division to lose. Jim Schwartz' team has held their own on the highway this season, going 3-3 both straight up and against the spread.
I have a feeling the Philadelphia defense is in for a stern test with Matthew Stafford, Megatron Johnson, and Reggie Bush keeping the Birds on their heels.
Take the points and the Lions in this NFC meeting.
2♦ DETROIT