Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals to stay under the posted total. At the time of this writing it's a solid 43 just about everywhere. As always, be sure to shop around for the best (highest) number.
I'd also urge you to get on this as soon as possible because once the freezing rain and wind picks up, Vegas will immediately knock this number down (or it will be bet down).
At kickoff the gametime temps are expected to be around 25 with a wind chill of 17, and included with that is a 70% chance of snow mixed with freezing rain and sleet. Yeah, nasty.
Okay, so let's assume the weather was going to be perfect... then what? What type of game would this be?
Let me give you the scoring outputs for the Colts over their last four games: 22, 11, 30 and 8... a four-week average of around 17 ppg. And if you consider the defenses they played against (Tennessee twice, St. Louis and Arizona), I have little doubt the Bengals are the best of that group of defenses... especially at home.
In Cincy's last three home games, they've allowed 20, 9 and 6 points to the Browns, Jets and Patriots. Remember that impressive 13-6 home win over Tom Brady and the Pats? When they want to, the Bengals have one of the best defenses in the league... and that includes Seattle, san Francisco and Carolina.
Both teams want to run the football and, to be honest, I haven't been impressed whatsoever in Colts QB Andrew Luck lately. The running of the ball will keep the clock running and keep the score down.
Now, let's factor the weather back into the equation. See where I'm going with this?
Free play of the day on the UNDER in Cincinnati.
3♦ INDIANAPOLIS-CINCINNATI UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Sunday is going to be on the St. Louis Rams plus the points in the desert, in an NFC West clash with the Arizona Cardinals. Listen, as good as the Cardinals have been playing, this might be the ultimate trap and the Rams might be in the best possible position they could be in this week.
After losing in Philadelphia last weekend, the Cardinals are back home for this division-rivalry showdown with a well-coached and scrappy St. Louis team before they head out to play at Tennessee and at Seattle the next two weeks.
Laying this many to a Rams team that not too long ago kicked around the Indianapolis Colts might end up being a struggle, especially the same Rams team that won the season opener between these two, 27-24.
Allow me to remind you what happened there, as the Rams erased a 24-13 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, put 14 unanswered points on the board and sent the Cardinals back to Glendale with a loss. And sure, revenge is something to consider, but it's also conceivable to think the feisty Rams will have confidence they can sweep the season series.
2♦ ST. LOUIS
Brad Wilton
I know the Vikings actually played a game Under the total last Sunday, but I have little reservations that they will be on the low-side once again here on Sunday in Baltimore.
Yes, the weather is expected to be a tad on the "sloppy" side, but these are not the Vikings of Bud Grant yore, these Vikings have a tendency to be a bit soft on defense, and to also turn the ball over. That combination will help up Minnesota's 9-3 Over mark to 10-3 once this one is decided.
Baltimore comes into this game with a few extra days to prepare, as the last time they were on the field was Thanksgiving night when they combined with Pittsburgh for an Over in the closing minute of play. True that one was not a wild shootout, but it did topple the total just barely to make it 2 of 3, and 3 of the last 5 over the total for the Ravens.
My feeling is last week's Under that Minnesota played in was a fluke. Today the Vikes revert back to form as Minny and Baltimore head Over the total.
3♦ MINNESOTA-BALTIMORE OVER
Brett Atkins
My free play is going to be just like yesterday, a winning total going Over like Ohio State and Michigan State did. I am playing the Panthers and Saints high in their game Sunday night.
With this one in the Big Easy and on national television, you better believe New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees will look to exploit Carolina's secondary in this game and has another chance to shine like he did the last time he was in this primetime spot - against the Dallas Cowboys last week.
These teams have played over in four straight meetings, so even though Carolina has stayed low in its last five games and New Orleans has done the same in three straight, this is a game they'll be able to unleash some offensive firepower and put on a show.
Despite the low-scoring games they've been involved in, the Panthers are on a 10-3 over run against NFC South foes, while the Saints have gone over 11 of 15 when challenged by a winning team.
This one goes high.
2♦ Saints/Panthers Over
River City Sharps
KC Chiefs -3
Washington seems to be a mess right now and they cannot stop anyone on defense. With KC off three straight losses, this seems to be a good time to right the ship with the Chiefs. They have plenty of motivation this weekend as they lead the AFC wild-card race and will secure their first playoff berth since 2010 with a win at Washington and a loss or tie by Miami or Baltimore on Sunday. We would expect to see a heavy dose of Jamaal Charles, who is second in the league with 1,463 total yards and tied for third with 11 TD's. The Skins are 1-8 ATS as an underdog this season. That's good enough for the Sharps to be backing the visitors.
Larry Ness
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost Thanksgiving night at Baltimore putting a hurt on their wild card chances. Conversely, the Dolphins won their Week 13 game 23-3 at the Jets, evening their record at 6-6, leaving them tied with the Ravens (although Baltimore currently owns the tie-breaker) for the AFC’s final playoff spot.
The Dolphins are an interesting study in 2013. Miami could easily be much better than its 6-6 record, as the Dolphins lost winnable games against Baltimore, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Carolina (those games decided by 12 total points). However, we are all aware od the famous Bill Parcells quote: “You are what your record says you are.” This Miami team lacks discipline and often fails to execute. The warm-weather Dolphins visit Heinz Field where the game time temperature will likely be below freezing and there is a chance of snow flurries.
Pittsburgh has some extra rest from its Thanksgiving night game and QB Big Ben plus its defense, has been rejuvenated since the team’s poor start. Big Ben has 13 TD passes and just three INTs over his last five games and Pittsburgh defense has allowed an average of just 17.5 PPG over its last four, after allowing 26.0 PPG through the team's first eight games. The Steelers have won FIVE straight meetings with the Dolphins dating to a loss at Miami on Sept 20, 1998. Make that SIX in a row!
Brady Kannon
Miami +3
Interesting match up here. I rate these teams as very even and the line supports this. The Dolphins are playing much better football since losing to Tampa Bay in the middle of the Incognito storm and have won 2-out of their last 3. The Steelers have won 3-out of 4. Pittsburgh at home would seem like the logical play.. but not only does the situation favor Miami, I also believe the Mike Tomlin interference fine and potential draft pick punishment, has The Steelers Head Coach distracted just enough to give us an even greater edge today. The Dolphins are 12-and-1 ATS as a single-digit non division underdog. Pittsburgh meanwhile, in a battle of their own for a playoff spot, has division rival Cincinnati on tap next and history proves that this has their attention as they are 1-and-13 ATS as favorites before taking on The Bengals. Miami seems to be getting its act together and fares well against opponents of equal or lessor strength as evidenced by the majority of their wins this year; Browns, Colts, Falcons, Chargers, and Jets. We'll add The Steelers to that list today. Miami plus the points - and be patient as you may be able to get 3.5
Joe Gavazzi
Cincinnati -7
The Colts won last week 22-14. Indy overcame a 162-104 deficit at the point of attack, winning with a +3 net turnover margin. They clearly miss WR Wayne as part of their offensive arsenal. A rush defense allowing 129/4.4 is becoming a major liability. Despite all of that, they hold a comfortable 3 game lead over Tennessee, their nearest pursuer in the division. The Bengals are a likewise 8-4 SU and in a similar way, hold a 2 game division lead. Though not normally eager to lay significant points with a Bengals team that has shown a conservative nature, but numbers speak otherwise. Last week they outrushed San Diego 164-91 for a 17-10 victory. The pass defense is among the best in the league at 58/5.5. It is ideal to slow Indy QB Luck. The home field has been a fortress; it is here that the Bengals are 5-0 ATS, covering by 62 points (13 PPG), and winning by an average of 16 PPG. The Bengals are the only side to consider.
Wunderdog
Game: Oklahoma at George Mason
Pick: George Mason +6
Oklahoma likes to run, but George Mason is all about defense and slowing the pace down. George Mason has allowed 54 and 68 points the last two games. George Mason has a tough one-two punch with 6-8 Marko Gujanicic and Sherrod Wright, holding South Florida to 41% shooting the last game. The Patriots are a strong bounce back team, 19-7 ATS following a loss and 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss. Oklahoma will want to run, but this game is at a neutral site and their offense is far better at home. And the Sooners are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games, plus 1-4-1 ATS against a team with a winning SU record. Play George Mason.
OC Dooley
Browns +10
In what has been yet another in a long line of disappointing campaigns Cleveland hit an absolute low-point a week ago at home in front of their own fans why they lost against lowly Jacksonville where an impotent Jaguars offense put more than 30 points on the scoreboard. One would think that the humiliated Browns are in line for another pounding today considering that New England can officially wrap up yet another AFC East divisional crown. In addition Tom Brady and company through the years have been virtually unbeatable (16-1 in the month of December) at this late stage of the campaign. But statistically the Cleveland defense has had an overall solid season while the offense is bolstered by Josh Gordon who just set an all-time NFL record for most receiving yards (498) in a two-game span. What has made Gordon’s performance even more shocking is the fact that due to constant injuries the Browns have had to rotate their quarterbacks almost on a weekly basis. Veteran Jason Campbell is slated to return to the helm today as he has just been cleared (concussion) by the league and doctors. It is a bit difficult to lay double-digits with New England who in the past three weeks has been outscored by a whopping 34-to-7 count in the opening quarter alone. As previously mentioned even though the team is in a current 1-6 slump, the Cleveland defense has performed well enough to lead to a low-balled posted total. My research indicates that in the past twenty years when the total has been relatively low (between 45’ and 49 points) New England has gone a dismal 10-24 ATS/HOME