Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore vs. WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: WashingtonFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore has been an extremely lucky team all year. And 'lucky' is the appropriate word -- a 4th and 29 conversion at San Diego isn't an example of 'good offensive football'. A win at Pittsburgh where the offense didn't score a TD isn't good offensive football either.
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The Ravens didn't score a TD in their win at KC either. Against Dallas, they gave up more than 200 rushing yards and the Cowboys held possession for more than 40 minutes, Baltimore still won, thanks to a missed two point conversion. Against Cleveland, it was a 63 yard interception return touchdown that provided the seven point margin of victory.
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I could go on and on, but I think you get my point. A Ravens team that is being priced like a 9-3 contender could easily be a 4-8 bottom feeder or a 6-6 mediocre team. And after winning SEVEN straight competitive games in which the game was tied or they trailed in the fourth quarter, the Steelers finally knocked the Ravens back to earth last Sunday, playing with a third string QB. Baltimore is a paper tiger, and the Redskins are primed to catch them!
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Washington, on the other hand, is coming on like a freight train down the stretch, reeling off three consecutive wins and covers following their own stretch of UNlucky football when they lost five times by a single score in the first nine games of the campaign. RG3 is essentially unstoppable these days, the most dangerous dual threat QB in the league already as a rookie. Their defense has stepped up and RB Alfred Morris is another legitimate rookie of the year candidate. The Redskins are the better of these two teams right now, regardless of what the records say. Asking them to win by a FG at home seems perfectly reasonable to this bettor! Take the 'Skins.
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Dallas vs. CincinnatiFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bengals are coming off a sweep of the AFC West and that does not include Denver so it can be considered a pretty unimpressive streak. Still, Cincinnati defeated the Giants prior to that and its four-game winning streak has got it right back into the playoff hunt.
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The Bengals are 1-3 within their own division and finish the season with games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore so that makes this game and next week's against the Eagles very important. Cincinnati has outgained eight of its last 10 opponents.
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Dallas is coming off a much needed win last week against Philadelphia and it can thanks the Redskins for taking out the Giants which put the Cowboys just one game out of first place. They have had trouble putting consecutive solid efforts together as they Cowboys have won back-to-back games only once and in that occasion, it took overtime at home to beat the Browns to make it two straight wins. Dallas is 4-0 this season against teams in the bottom half of the league and just 2-6 against the top 16.
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Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is coming off his best outing of the year with 303 yards, three touchdowns, 82 percent completion rate and, most importantly, zero turnovers. We know what that means. He has followed up a post-100 passer rating with another only once in three other tried this year. In addition, Dallas has been inconsistent protecting Romo in the pocket and the running game has been inconsistent. Cincinnati should have no trouble winning the line of scrimmage here.
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The Bengals offense is a pretty average unit but it been consistent for the most part which is most important. They had three turnovers in five games prior to last week and they will obviously need to take care of the ball here. Cincinnati is balanced in both the passing game and running game and it has plenty of weapons to get the ball to which is a big strength against an inconsistent defense such as Dallas. The Cowboys are 11th in total defense but 21st in scoring defense.
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Dallas is just 1-12 ATS in its last 13 game following a win including 0-7 ATS following a win of six or fewer points. Cincinnati meanwhile is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games following a win. The Bengals also fall into a great situation where we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are +3 to +7 ppg in scoring differential going up against teams that are between +/- 3 ppg in scoring differential, after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons.
Accuscore
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Over 50.5
The computer sets the total at 55 points with the over on the posted line occurring 62.1 percent of the time. That is the most likely AccuScore four-star total play of Week 14. Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have combined to throw 948 passes this season. Neither team is particularly good at running the ball, and more often chooses to go to the air. If the Packers get up early as we expect, Detroit will choose to pass even more often.
Indianapolis Colts -5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Colts win 63.7 percent of simulations, and by 10 or more 40 percent of the time. The computer has the Colts covering the five point spread 50 percent of the time, but I see as a slightly bigger line. Indianapolis quite frankly, at this point is on a freight train towards the playoffs. They have won six of their last seven games including a six point road win vs. the Titans. Most of those games have been very close actually, but I feel the defense will play a bit better at home, and Andrew Luck was just absurdly good last week against Detroit. He seems improved even from just a month ago like something has clicked and he has figured out how to the move the football in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Under 48
The computer sets this line at just 43 points, and has gone a combined 18-4 picking totals in games involving either of these two teams. Tennessee has lost four of their past five games, and in those games they have scored just 13, 20, 19, and 10 points. That includes a 13-19 loss to Indy at home in Week 8.
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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay BuccaneersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Philadelphia EaglesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Eagles pumped some life back into their supporters with a 98-yard punt return in the final minute to garner the cover last Sunday night in Dallas as they now approach Dandy Andy time. If the embattled coach can make it through this final quarter of the season, then broke Philly fanatics (1-9-1 ATS before last week?s miracle cover) may be able to have a little holiday cheer as Reid is 19-10 ATS on the road and 17-7 ATS as a dog in his career over the final four games of the season. The veteran coach is also a moneymaking 23-9 ATS as a non-division dog of 6 or more points in his 14 years on the Philadelphia sidelines. Helping matters greatly will be Tampas 1-10 SU and 3-7-1 ATS record versus the NFC East since 2008, including 0-2-1 ATS as chalk. In fact, this year alone, the Buccaneers are 0-3 SU versus the East, having been outgained by over 100 yards in all three contests. Thus, you can see why we have no problem fading the Bucs in this uncomfortable favorite role especially when you consider they are 3-7 SU and ATS in this series when the Eagles own at least one win on the year, and 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in unlucky Game Thirteen of the season. Reid all about it - and grab the points - as the Nick Foles Follies nab a second straight cover. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.
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Washington Redskins -2.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redskins are now 6-6 overall and just a game back of the Giants in the NFC East. Ever since this team returned from their bye week they have looked like a completely different team than the one that opened the season 3-6. It’s hard to not like your chances with Washington at home laying less than a field goal.
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The Washington offense looked unstoppable at times last week, as the Giants defensive front seven looked lost on their assignments. You simply don’t know when RGIII is going to hand it off, play action pass or take off running. Baltimore’s defense has already been decimated with injuries and just this past weekend lost starting outside linebacker Terrell Suggs. While Ray Lewis is expected to start practicing this week, he isn’t expected to even be considered to play until next week against the Broncos.
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Baltimore’s defense has been no where close to what we have grown to expect over the last decade. The Ravens rank 23rd in the NFL against both the run and the pass and it figures to only get worse without either of their two start linebackers in the lineup.
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Washington seems to save its best for when they play the better teams in this league, as they are an impressive 5-1 ATS over their last six games vs a team with a winning record.
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Miami Dolphins vs. San Francisco 49ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: San Francisco 49ersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Second year QB, Colin Kaepernick looked mortal in the 16-13 OT loss to St. Louis last week. But San Fran wasn't really up for the game after 2 BIG wins over Chicago and New Orleans. Miami's offense is anemic, with just 5 TDs in the last 4 games. They have a shaky ground game and an inexperienced QB in Ryan Tannehill. They will not be able to move the ball on a 49ers stingy defense that allows a mere 14.2 PPG. Coming off the loss last week, San Francisco needs to flex their muscles and make a statement here. Take San Francisco.
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Cowboys at BengalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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123 Dallas (6-6) at 124 Cincinnati (7-5) NFC Cowboys visit AFc Bengals. Dallas has gone over 3 of last 4 games. Cincy has gone under last 4. The thing taht sticks out is the Bengals played 3 straight very weak AFC opponents SD, KC, Oak. Dallas has gun slinger Romo and Cin QB Dalton can throw as well. High scoring game in Cincinnati.
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tennessee at IndianapolisFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tennessee +5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Indianapolis Colts have turned a disastrous season a year ago into one in which they’re a bona fide playoffs contender at 8-4, if they can finish the job over the last four weeks. Andrew Luck has given them a passing game. He's having an amazing year and appears to be establishing himself already as an elite NFL quarerback..... Record scratch. While this is what you hear from the stuffed suits, the reality may surprise you. Blaine Gabbert. Kevin Kolb. Tennessee's Jake Locker. What do these three quarterbacks have in common? They aren't very good. Yes, that's true, but what else? They are all looking down on Andrew Luck in the quarterback rating standings. That's right, the better quarterback statistically in this game is not named Andrew Luck. Luck will be a great quarterback in this league, but he's still a rookie on a bad team. He has passed for over 3,500 yards, but because the Colts struggle to run the ball, Luck is on schedule to approach the 700-pass mark this season. He has a pedestrian passer rating in the mid-70s, and he has just one more touchdown than interceptions on the season. The Colts may be 8-4, but they have been out-scored by 41 points on the season. They have been very fortunate to win every close game, and six of their eight wins have been in either overtime or by 4 points or less. The fact is that if they were giving 5 points in every game they would be 3-9. Indy isn't as good as advertised. Jake Locker is going to be able to move the chains, as the Colts have mustered just six sacks in their last four games. Chris Johnson got 99 yards in the first game, and the Colts have surrendered 100+ on the ground in each of their last three. The Titans are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 after scoring 14 or fewer in their previous game. This is the most points Indy has had to lay in two years. It's too large. Take the underdog here.
Ray Monohan
St. Louis Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
Play: Buffalo Bills
The Bills are hardly a juggernaut but at home, as winter sets in, against a “Dome” team I like those odds. Buffalo got their running game going last week with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller gouging the defense and should be able to again against an average St. Louis defense. The Rams are getting too much respect for having the 49ers number this year including beating them as a heavy underdog last week. In fact they have only one win against a team outside their division this year so it appears familiarity is an advantage for these Rams - they haven’t played the Bills since 2008. The only reason not to take Buffalo is if you feel they have a long way to fall after last week. At -3 all they really have to do is win.
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Detroit Lions +7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Any time you can grab significant or more points with the #2 offense in the entire league, you do just THAT. Detroit comes in averaging 410 YPG (2nd to New England's 427 YG)... and the #1 passing offense (313 YPG). Not to mention, 27 PPG as well. In their last two games, the results have been even more dramatic (451 and 535 total yards). The Lions are in EVERY game, more often than not. In fact, they're off 3 home games in which the margins were only 2 pts... 3 pts... and 4 pts. And they'll be taking on a Green Bay team that's down DRAMATICALLY compared to last year. The Packers are down NINE points compared to last year's offense (25 ppg vs 34 ppg).
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In this NFC North Division, the database tells us to fade the hosts when they're coming in off a win. The Packers beat Minnesota last week.
5-16-1 ATS since 2002: NFC NORTH division home teams off a SU win (G Bay) vs any opponent off a SU loss (DET). Dating back to the last 6 years, these teams have gone 1-8-1 ATS.
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Green Bay comes in with a 8-4 SU record, while Detroit is exactly reverse (4-8 SU). The Packers are off a win and laying 6 or more points... and the OU line is on the high side (49 pts). Let's query all four of those aspects (record, result, line, OU line).
0-7 ATS since 2006: All > .500 division home favs of -6 > pts off a SU Win (Packers) vs and points.
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As mentioned above, the Lions are off a (rare) 3 straight game HOMESTAND (and they lost all three games).
12-2-1 ATS since 1982: All road teams playing off 3 straight home losses (DET).
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Also as mentioned above, Detroit lost their last two games by 2 and 3 points each.
5-0 ATS last 3 years: All road teams (DET) off BB SU losses of 3 or less points EACH.
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Both of those last two losses by Detroit were very high-scoring (35 to 33 and 34 to 31).
10-1 ATS since 1989: All division road underdogs (LIONS) of 2 > points playing off BB SU losses (last as a fav) in which they allowed 34 or more points.
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Minnesota Vikings +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bears have cooled off since a 7-1 start. They have lost three of their last four games both straight up and against the spread.
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Chicago is just 2-4 against the spread in its last six games as a favorite. The big reason it has struggled as chalk lately is because it is one of the weakest offensive teams in the NFL. The Bears rank 30th in the league in total offense with 303.4 yards per game. The Minnesota offense isn’t great but it has had more success moving the football than Chicago. It ranks 22nd with 335.5 yards per game.
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It is also worth noting that the Chicago defense appears to be wearing down. The Bears have given up an average of 136.3 rushing yards over their last six games after allowing an average of only 71.3 in their first six. They were gashed for 176 rushing yards and 459 total yards in last week's loss to the Seahawks. This is significant because the Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
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Chicago will have a tough time dealing with a Minnesota rushing attack that ranks third in the NFL with 154.9 yards per game.
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The Vikings have been strong at home where they have won five of six games this season. One of their home wins was a 24-13 victory against the San Francisco 49ers, who crushed Chicago 32-7. Minnesota has gone 4-1-1 against the spread in these games.
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Chicago has been a terrible investment on the road late in the season. In fact, it is just 11-27 against the spread in road games in the final four weeks of the regular season over the last two decades. It has lost by an average score of 24.5 to 15.8 in this situation.
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The home team has covered the number in seven of the last last nine meetings. Take the Vikings in the home dog role.
Accuscore
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Detroit Lions
Stephen likes the Packers to cover , and he hasn’t been wrong in about two months so who am I to disagree? The computer agrees with both of us projecting Green Bay to cover 55.5 percent of the time, and win by 10 points on average. Detroit has shown themselves to be not a great football team having lost four games in a row including by four points at home in Week 11 to the Packers. Now this game is in Lambeau with the playoffs no longer possible.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Over 50.5
The computer sets the total at 55 points with the over on the posted line occurring 62.1 percent of the time. That is the most likely AccuScore four-star total play of Week 14. Matt Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have combined to throw 948 passes this season. Neither team is particularly good at running the ball, and more often chooses to go to the air. If the Packers get up early as we expect, Detroit will choose to pass even more often.
Indianapolis Colts -5 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Colts win 63.7 percent of simulations, and by 10 or more 40 percent of the time. The computer has the Colts covering the five point spread 50 percent of the time, but I see as a slightly bigger line. Indianapolis quite frankly, at this point is on a freight train towards the playoffs. They have won six of their last seven games including a six point road win vs. the Titans. Most of those games have been very close actually, but I feel the defense will play a bit better at home, and Andrew Luck was just absurdly good last week against Detroit. He seems improved even from just a month ago like something has clicked and he has figured out how to the move the football in the NFL.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans Under 48
The computer sets this line at just 43 points, and has gone a combined 18-4 picking totals in games involving either of these two teams. Tennessee has lost four of their past five games, and in those games they have scored just 13, 20, 19, and 10 points. That includes a 13-19 loss to Indy at home in Week 8.
Bruce Marshall
N.Y. Jets vs. Jacksonville
Pick: Jacksonville
The Jets don't exactly inspire much confidence when laying points on the road these days. And it’s not the QB controversy that many in Jets Nation were expecting. But another stinkeroo effort by Mark Sanchez (three picks vs. the Cards last week) and Tim Tebow’s injured ribs have ex-Alabama QB Greg McElroy (who engineered the only TD in the comeback win over the Big Red) as another option and caused Rex Ryan to balk before keeping Sanchez in the lineup on Sunday at Jacksonville, where the return of favorite son Tim Tebow has Jaguar management un-tarping some blocks of seats at EverBank Field. But even if Tebow gets on the field, is it a plus for the Jets? J'ville is missing MJD, but still prefer Chad Henne over any Jets’ QB option.
Chip Chirimbes
New Orleans Saints vs. NY Giants
Play: NY Giants
It was just over a year ago as I sat in a Super Dome Suite with Desi Vegas and Duce McCalister as the Saints destroyed the Giants on a Monday Night. Well the Giants went on the win the Super Bowl after that and with the Super Bowl in New Orleans this year the Saints will have to buy tickets. Giants in REVENGE!. Take NEW YORK!
Jordan Runco
Lions vs. Packers
Play: Over 48
Detroit travels to the frozen tundra on Sunday night, but their playoff chances are basically frozen after they lost at home last week to Indianapolis, 35-33. Green Bay is struggling with some injuries, but they keep winning. They beat the Packers, 23-14 last week as a 7-point favorite. Detroit visits Lambeau Field on Sunday night to take on the Packers at 8:20pmET. Last game: Green Bay (-3) over DETROIT, 24-20
Odds: The oddsmakers have installed Green Bay as a 6.5-point favorite. The total is 48 in most books.
Line Movement: Green Bay opened as a 6.5-point favorite and remained there at most books. The total started at 52.5 and moved to 48 in most books.
NFL FREE PICK: OVER Detroit/Green Bay. Latest trends: The game is 4-1 OVER last 5 at Green Bay. Detroit is 13-4-1 OVER last 18 following an ATS loss, 5-1 Over last 6 games overall, 13-4-1 Over last 18 following an ATS loss, 19-6-2 Over last 27 on grass and 16-7-1 Over last 24 in December. Green Bay is 16-5 Over last 21 home games, 11-4 Over last 15 on grass and 8-3 Over last 11 in December.
The Packers are back on top of the NFC North after the Bears stumbled at home last week to Seattle. Green Bay’s lack of a running game has hurt them but they are facing Detroit (4-8), who has lost four straight and is toast when it comes to the playoff race. Their defense was also atrocious last week when they allowed the Colts and rookie Andrew Luck to score two touchdowns in the final 2:39 minutes to blow the game. Aaron Rodgers will have a big game against a team that is clearly done. The Lions have allowed 69 points and 960 yards in their last two games. In his last trip to Lambeau Field, QB Matthew Stafford threw for 520 yards and five TDs in a 45-41 loss on Jan. 1.