Rob Vinciletti
Rams vs. Bills
Play: Bills
The Bills are the beneficiaries of some solid systems that plays against the Rams and any road team in this spread range that are off back to back dogs wins. Teams that are in non conference games after 2 big divisional road wins tend to struggle vs non conference games. The Rams are 0-10 with 1 spread win in game after playing the 49ers and have lost 7 of 8 in game 13 of the season. The Bills have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and 11 of 13 as a home favorite of 6 or less vs losing teams. The Rams struggle big time vs teams off a win of 10 or more vs average teams if they are getting 9 or less. Will back the Bills today.
Nick Parsons
Jazz at Lakers
Pick: Under
With the total at it's highest point in this series since 2010, we will side with the under here. The Lakers and Jazz have gone under the total at a 6-1 pace, and with the Lakers struggling offensively we don't see a return home to the scrutiny of the home town fans as the best remedy. The Lakers, albeit minus Steve Nash, have not worked well under D'Antoni's system and while Antwaan Jamison has provided much needed scoring as a starter, Pau Gasol's injury is in question after being largely ineffective. Howard has looked far from the dominant defensive player he was known as in Orlando, and Al Jefferson matched Dwight's 19-point 9 rebound effort with an 18-point and 10 rebound game of his own. These teams cashed in on the under in the last meeting in Utah this season, with a total that was 20 points lower, because of this we think this one has room to go under the number.
NFL Betting Picks
Washington Redskins -2.5
Baltimore enters this game with a 9-3 record and in first place in the AFC North. They are 4-2 on the road this year. The Ravens are coming off a 23-20 loss to the Steelers at home as 7 point favorites, as the Steelers were missing Ben Roethlisberger. Before that game the Ravens have won 4 straight and 8 of 9, but with a closer look at their schedule it really fails to impress me. The only real impressive wins were at home vs New England by a single point (missed FG at the end by NE) and in their home opener vs the Bengals where they won 44-13. The Ravens beat Dallas, who haven't been too good this year, by just 2 points at home and barely got by the Steelers with Byron Leftwich as the starting QB and playing through a broken rib. In their other wins they did take care of a bad Oakland team beating them by 35 points at home, but it took overtime to beat the 4-8 Chargers by a FG, they've beat Cleveland by 10 and 7 points, and Kansas City by 3 points. Note that their 4 road wins have come by a combined 19 points and those games came against well below .500 teams + the Steelers without Roethlisberger. Other road games included a 24-23 loss in Philadelphia, and a 43-13 loss in Houston. The Washington Redskins are 6-6 on the season and 3-3 at home. They are fighting for a playoff spot and helped their chances on Monday night with a 17-16 win over the defending Super Bowl Champs. Since their bye week they are now 3-0 and have seemed to really come together in the past couple weeks. 4 of the Redskins 6 losses have come against teams that are either in a playoff spot or currently tied for a playoff spot. Washington has beaten some good teams including New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and the Giants, and have other impressive wins @Dallas on Thanksgiving, vs Minnesota by 12 points at home, and vs Philadelphia by 25 points at home. Both the Ravens and Redskins are struggling defensively with Baltimore ranked 25th and giving up 20.2 papg and the Redskins ranked 29th giving up 25.1 papg. Offensively the Redskins rank 7th in the NFL and are averaging 26 ppg, while the Ravens rank 19th and average 25.2 ppg. Take note that on the road the Ravens are averaging just 16.5 ppg. Washington is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Baltimore hasn't proven much at all on the road this year and will have another tough test against a confident Redskins team that has their offense clicking. I like the Redskins to win and cover the spread for a 4 unit play.
Atlanta Falcons -3
The Falcons are 11-1 on the season entering this game and 5-1 on the road. They are coming off a big 23-13 win at home vs the Saints on Thursday night and have now won 3 straight after losing in New Orleans a few weeks back. Atlanta hasn't had too many tough tests yet this year, but they've continued to look impressive and are 7-4-1 ATS. The Panthers had high expectations heading into this year but are just 3-9 entering Week 14, and an awful 1-5 at home. They failed to beat Kansas City last week as 5.5 point favorites, losing by 6, which came after a Prime Time win in Philadelphia. These two teams met earlier in the season with the Falcons barely squeaking out a 30-28 victory as 7 point favorites. Atlanta has won the last 5 meetings between these two teams, including 31-23 in Carolina last year in December. They've covered the spread in 4 of those 5 meetings as well. Atlanta ranks 9th on offense and are averaging 26.4 ppg, while Carolina is 18th averaging just 19.6 ppg. Defensively Carolina ranks ahead of Atlanta at 14 (vs 18), but the Falcons are allowing just 19.1 papg while the Panthers are allowing 24.3 papg. Note that th Falcons are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 vs a team with a losing record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Falcons do have a big game coming up against the Giants next week, but I can't see them looking past a team they barely beat earlier in the season. I expect Atlanta to come out and win their 6th straight vs Carolina and cover the spread in doing so.
Cleveland Browns -5.5
Kansas City is one of the worst teams in the NFL this season with their 2-10 record, which includes being just 1-4 on the road. They are coming off a big emotional victory at home vs Carolina last week, but had lost 8 straight games prior to that. If you look further into their 8 game losing streak prior to Sunday you will notice that they scored 16 or fewer points in all but one of those games and averaged 11.63 ppg during that 8 game losing skid. The Cleveland Browns are just 4-8 on the season, but they've been somewhat impressive throughout the year. They are 3-3 at home this season and 7-4-1 ATS. They've won two straight games vs Oakland and Pittsburgh, and their other wins have come against Cincinnati and San Diego at home. It took Dallas overtime to beat Cleveland in Dallas 3 weeks ago, and the game prior to that the Ravens escaped with a 10 point win over the Browns but that was also a tight game. Overall Cleveland has been competitive in almost all of their games played this year. The same cannot be said about the Chiefs. Overall the Chiefs rank 21st on offense but are scoring jsut 15.7 ppg, while the Browns rank 27th scoring 19.1 ppg. Kansas City is 16th defensively but giving up 26.8 papg, while the Browns are 23rd but giving up 22.1 papg. Take note that the Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a losing record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after a straight up victory. The Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 vs AFC opponents, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. Even though the Browns have just 2 more wins than the Chiefs I think they are quite a bit better this year, and I will lay the points with the Browns at home.
Titans / Colts Under 48
Tennessee enters this game 4-8 on the year and 2-4 on the road. Take note that UNDER is 4-1 in the Titans last 5 games, as they've scored 20 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 and have given up 24 or fewer points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Colts are in a playoff spot to almost everyone's surprise with their 8-4 record and 5-1 home record. Indianapolis has their offense going, but they've also stepped it up defensively. The Colts have allowed 13 or fewer points against in 4 of their last 7 games and 20 or fewer points against in 5 of 7. These two teams have already met once this season with a Colts 19-13 victory in Tennessee. Take note that while the Colts are ranked 3rd in offense they are averaging just 22.1 ppg. The Titans are ranked 23rd overall on offense and averaging just 20.7 ppg. Both teams aren't too strong defensively with Indy giving up 25.5 papg and the Titans giving up 29.9 papg, but being divisional rivals they usually play each other tight. In their two meetings last year the teams split with each winning at home. The totals of those two games were 40 and 37. Overall the UNDER is 7-1 in their last 8 meetings, and 10-1 in their last 11 meetings in Indianapolis. The UNDER is 14-5-1 in the Titans last 20 vs divisional opponents, and 4-0-1 in their last 5 games in December. The UNDER is 10-1 in the Colts last 11 vs divisional opponents, 10-1 in their last 11 home games, and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is also 15-6 in their last 21 games overall. Both teams play the UNDER at a high percentage vs divisional opponents, and the past has shown these two play each other to the UNDER. I don't see anything being different this week and with a high total I will take the UNDER.
Green Bay Packers -6.5
Detroit has had quite the rough season entering Sunday's meeting with a 4-8 record overall and 2-4 road record. The Lions have lost 4 straight games, which have included a few tough losses. Last week the Lions blew their lead late losing 35-33 on the last play of the game. Prior to that the Lions lost in overtime on Thanksgiving to the Texans. Detroit's wins this year have come against St Louis, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Their only somewhat impressive win was vs Seattle and that was in Detroit and it took a late touchdown to win. The Packers are 8-4 head into Sunday's game and well on their way to another playoff appearance. They are a solid 5-1 at home after a 23-14 victory over Minnesota last week. Green Bay had won 5 straight before going into New York and losing by 28 points to the Giants. Included in those wins was a 24-20 victory over the Lions. The win was their 3rd straight vs Detroit, and the Packers have pretty much owned the Lions over recent years. Take note that the Lions do rank 2nd in the NFL offensively compared to the Packers at 16th, but are averaging just 0.3 more ppg at 25 compared to the Packers are 24.7 ppg. Defensively the Packers are allowing 21.6 papg, while the Lions are giving up 26.2 papg. The Lions have given up 34 or more points in 3 of their last 4 games and 24 or more points in 5 of their last 6. Take note that the Lions are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs NFC opponents, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs divisional opponents, and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Packers are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 vs divisional opponents, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 overall, and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 home games. Green Bay is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings vs Detroit. The Lions should be able to put up a couple scores in this one but I can't see their defense doing much to stop Rodgers and the Packers offense. The Packers continue to beat up on Detroit winning and covering on Sunday night.
Sean Murphy
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Over
The Chargers are by no means a trendy upset pick this Sunday, but I won't be surprised if they give the Steelers a challenge. Look for the San Diego offense to get back in rhythm on the road, where it has been at its best this season. Save for a bad weather game in Cleveland, the Chargers have been good for 20+ points like clockwork away from home. The Steelers will suffer enough of a letdown following....last week's huge road win over the Ravens to open the door for at least three San Diego scoring drives. Not to be outdone, Ben Roethlisberger will make a triumphant return to the field, and lead the Steelers on three touchdown drives of his own, breaking the back of a Chargers defense that has held up well over the last couple of weeks - but simply can't sustain that level of play heading out on the road. A defensive score by Pittsburgh isn't out of the question either, especially when you consider how careless Philip Rivers has been with the football this season (that has certainly been a product of trying to do too much with limited weapons around him). With Big Ben, not to mention WR Antonio Brown back in the mix, the Steelers are one of the AFC's most prolific offensive teams, and the oddsmakers have once again missed the mark, setting another rather low total here at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh is content to outgun San Diego in what has the makings of a fun December matchup in the Steel City. Final verdict: Pittsburgh 27 San Diego 21
David Chan
Atlanta vs. Carolina
Pick: Under
Atlanta is 11-1 SU/ATS. The O/U is 4-8. Last week it beat the Saints 23-13, the total staying well below the posted number of 54 in that one. The Falcons may have locked up the NFC South title with last week's victory, but they still have plenty to play for as they look to secure the conference's No. 1 seed.
With a victory, the Falcons will inch closer to a first round bye and home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Last week's defensive performance could very well have been the team's best, and it will be looking for a repeat performance today.
QB Matt Ryan was just 18 of 33 for a season-low 165 yards and a TD, but the secondary would go on to grab five INTs off of Drew Brees.
It's interesting to note that Atlanta has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten as a favorite.
Carolina is 3-9 SU/ATS. The O/U is 7-5. Last week it lost 27-21 at Kansas City, the total sailing above the posted number of 41 in that one.
When these teams played in Week 4, Atlanta would hold on for a 30-28 victory.
To say the Panthers are seeking revenge this week would be an understatement:
"We owe them something and it is coming," said Carolina DE Greg Hardy on Wednesday.
Despite the high-scoring affairs this year it's still significant to note that Carolina has seen the total go "under" the number in 12 of its last 22 home games.
A situational play here.
Atlanta's tough defensive play continues to get the job done. If the Panthers have any shot at pulling off the upset, they'll have to match that intensity, controlling the ball while on offense, and play their best defensive game of the season.
This number is just a little high; consider a second look at the "under" in this matchup!
Steve Merril
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis
Pick: Tennessee
These two teams met in late-October with the Colts winning 19-13 in Tennessee. However, the Titans were a 3 ½-point favorite in that game and they led 13-6 with less than 4 minutes to play. Indianapolis got a late touchdown to force overtime and they eventually won in the extra session. Tennessee was in a terrible scheduling spot for that game as they were off their dramatic, last-second win at Buffalo the week before; the Titans won that game 35-34. They were in a definite flat spot yet they still were in control of the game late. The roles are revered for the rematch as Indianapolis is now in the bad spot while laying a handful of points.
The Colts capped another miracle comeback win last week in Detroit as they rallied from a 13-point deficit with less than 3 minutes to play. Indianapolis scored two touchdowns, including the game winner on the final play of the game to beat the Lions 35-33. That win sets the Colts up in a major letdown spot for this game, especially since they’ve already beaten the Titans this season. Tennessee is off a pair of bad divisional efforts so we expect their best here, especially with the memory of how they lost to the Colts on their home field. We’ll take the points with the road underdog in a game that comes right down to the wire.
Dave Cokin
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns
Pick: Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs bonded together under dire circumstances last week and played their best game of the season. Look for them to flatten out here and resume their losing ways. Cleveland in a rare spot to deliver a knockout win, I'll lay the points with the Browns.
Jim Feist
Magic at Suns
Pick: Over
The Orlando Magic (7-12 S/U, 10-9 ATS, 9-10 O/U) look to break a two game losing streak here on Sunday. The Magic finish up a road trip that started great with wins at the Lakers (113-103) and Golden State (102-94). They then lost the next two on the road at Utah and las time out at Sacramento. Still, the Magic have covered three of four on this trip. The Magic have gone UNDER in three straight, but before that they ran off five straight OVER games while scoring 102 or more points in four of six contests. Considering the Suns are a horrible defense club, allowing over 100 points in four of the last five and nine of the last 13 - look for that streak of OVERS to start up again here on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns (7-13 S/U, 6-13 ATS, 11-8 O/U) have lost six straight games after their setback at at the Clippers on Saturday, 117-99. Now they are in the unenviable position of playing back-to-back spots. The last seven times they have been in this spot the OVER is 5-2. Last seven meetings between these clubs in Phoenix are 5-2 Over/Under and I look for another high scoring game here on Sunday. Take the OVER.
Andy Iskoe
Buffalo -3
Buffalo had one of its best efforts of the season in last week's win over Jacksonville. St Louis pulled an upset of San Francisco and at 5-6-1 remain on the periphery of the Wild Card chase. Both teams have covered 3 of their last 4 games. St Louis continues to excel as an underdog but, surprisingly, Buffalo is 4-1 ATS as a favorite this season. The Rams are off of a tough stretch of games, including back to back Divisional wins. Any inclement weather and the elements do favor the Bills. The Rams have already lost to the other 3 AFC East teams by a combined 55 points. But what I really like about this play is Buffalo's improved play on defense. In looking at games 7 through 12 vs games 1 through 6, Buffalo has been allowing 123 fewer yards per game (307 in games 7 - 12 vs 430 in games 1 - 6). This is the greatest improvement in the league but will not be seen if you just look at season to date stats. St Louis has a rather ordinary, below average offense which suggests Buffalo should keep up its recent high level of play on that side of the football.
Tony George
Panthers +3.5
I am still in the school of thought Atlanta is somewhat of a paper tiger. Yeah I said it, at 11-1 I think they are a solid team but their schedule has been favorable. Home dogs are always worth a look in division play and Carolina caught KC last week playing their hearts out for a fallen brother, and KC played their best game of the season, Carolina was the victim of that. The Panthers will not take this game lightly and they have been in every game this season except 1. The Panthers lost by 2 in the first meeting at Atlanta and ran for 199 yards on the Dirty Birds. This is a set up spot for Atlanta with the Giants on deck and their inability to run the football (ranked 28th) is going to catch up with them, and RB Turner banged up and not 100% today if he plays.
EZ Money Picks
New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Play: Jacksonville Jaguars
It's really hard to justify this pick with stats because of all the issues the Jaguars have had. Mark Sanchez is simply awful this year. Chad Henne, on the other hand, has been playing some great football since stepping in for Gabbert! He is 3-1 as a starter with Miami against the Jets. Even though MJD will be out again, this Montell Owens guy can run the football! I like the Jaguars at home with the points.
Nelly
St. Louis Rams / Buffalo Bills Under
The Rams have not lost a NFC West game this season, again taking the 49ers to overtime and this time pulling out the win. It was a long grueling game and after the Rams tied the 49ers a few weeks back that had an awful performance against the Jets the following week. St. Louis has suspect offensive statistics this season, scoring just 18 points per game and Buffalo has stepped up on defense the last few weeks, allowing 20 points or less in each game. Buffalo has had a rough year at 5-7 but the Bills could still have some life if they can take care of business at home this week. The Bills have just two home losses this season and one came by a single point and this is one of the best rushing teams in the NFL, despite peculiar limited use of the running game in several games. The Rams only have one road win this season, beating helpless Arizona with the help of two defensive touchdowns two weeks ago and there could be a letdown facing long travel and cold weather after the biggest win of the year. Buffalo put up 34 points last week but the Bills have been held to below 20 points in five of the last eight games and in cold weather both teams will likely keep the ball on the ground more than usual. St. Louis has allowed 24 or fewer points in all but two of the last 10 games and they have held five of those foes to 17 or fewer points. St. Louis is 25th in the league in yards per game and 28th in scoring and the Bills are also a below average offensive team. Both teams have above average pass defenses and if you take out games against the Patriots for both teams the numbers all trend substantially further downward as the Bills allowed 89 points in two games with New England and the Rams allowed 45 in the meeting in London.
Larry Ness
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger got hurt in Pittsburgh’s Week 10 MNF win over the Chiefs. Back-to-back losses, 13-10 at home to Baltimore and 20-14 at Cleveland followed, and with a game in Baltimore last Sunday (and Big Ben still sidelined), Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes were in deep trouble. However, Batch led them to an unlikely 23-20 win last Sunday (Ravens had won 16 straight home games) and now (at 7-5), things are looking much better for the Steelers.
They are tied with the Bengals for the 6th (and final) AFC playoff spot but Roethlisberger is ready to return and the Steelers get THREE of their final four games at home. The first is Sunday’s game with the Chargers, who have dropped SEVEN of eight since a 3-1 start. Few will argue against the statement that the Chargers look like a team beyond repair. San Diego (4-8) is one loss away from its first losing season under Norv Turner and no one believes that Turner will survive this year’s failure. The Chargers have yet to beat a team with a winning record and last Sunday's 20-13 home loss to Cincinnati marked their fourth straight defeat. QB Philip Rivers has struggled during the four-game slide with six TD passes compared to five INTs while fumbling five times. The offensive line is a mess, allowing 14 sacks over the last three games.
San Diego’s last losing season was back in 2003 (4-12) and considering the Chargers have lost 14 straight in Pittsburgh (Norv Turner is 0-6 against the Steelers), San Diego’s 9th loss seems to be a forgone conclusion. The Steelers own the NFL’s top defense (259.8 YPG) and have held SEVEN straight opponents under 300 total yards, allowing an average of 234.0 YPG during that stretch. Pittsburgh would need the Ravens to lose two more games to have any shot at the division title but since wild card teams have won three of the last seven Super Bowls (including the Steelers in 2006), they don't see gaining home-field advantage in the playoffs as a necessity. Lay it with Pittsburgh.
John Ryan
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Tennessee Titans
The simulator shows a high probability that the Titans will lose this game by fewer than 5 points and have an excellent shot at an upset road win. Given the projections, I like using a combination bet playing a 7.5* amount on the line and a 2.5* amount using the money line. Colts are a weak 10-23 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992. This is a history lesson, but it also reflects how winning teams get over valued in the second half of the season, especially when playing an apparent struggling team. Tennessee, for mostly the same reason, is a stout 32-17 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. The Colts rank 30th in the NFL in turnover differential and the Titans have significant OL and DL advantages on both sides of the ball. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-54 record for 65% winners since 1983. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points that is a struggling team being outscored by opponents by 7 or more points per game and after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Locker was sacked six times and threw 3 picks in last week?s loss at Houston. The Colts are are a far cry from what the Houston Texans bring along the DL and Lockers is at his best when he has time to throw and step into his throws through passing lanes. The Titans OL is arguably one of the most vastly under rated units in the NFL. They did struggle at times in reading the Texans blitz schemes, but all teams have that problem. Colts cannot afford to blitz and be caught in man coverage as Locker has the size and arm strength to exploit those matchups. Take the Titans.
HARRY BONDI
Philadelphia / Tampa Bay Over 47
We'll look for a high-scoring affair today in Tampa when two teams that don't play much defense go head-to-head. The Bucs have been an "over" machine, going up and over the total in eight out of nine games, thanks mostly to a secondary that is on pace to give up the most single-season passing yards in NFL history. Meanwhile, since the Eagles fired defensive coordinator Juan Castillo six weeks ago the team has given up an average of 32.5 points per game and has gone over in five of its last seven games. Philly will have no answer for the Tampa duo of RB Doug Martin and QB Josh Freeman. Go over.