Charlie Sports
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Play: Tennessee Titans
The (4-8) Tennessee Titans of the AFC South division division will take on the (8-4) Indianapolis Colts of the same division in 2012 NFL action. The Colts beat Tennessee on the raod back in last October. Tennessee has lost 4 of theirl ast 5 Football games straight up and Against The Spread while the Colts are 6-1 staright up and ATS. Indy has everything to lose and may play a little tite today, Tennessee gets the road cover.
Scott Delaney
I'm on 46-28-2 free play run right now, and today I am banking on the Seattle Seahawks to get it done against the Arizona Cardinals in NFC West action. Bad time for the Redbirds to fly into town, since the Seahawks are soaring right now, playing their best football of the season. And since they're in must-win mode and needing to win out as the cling to the final playoff spot in the NFC while saving some hope for a division title, if the can catch the West-leading San Francisco 49ers.
Arizona is more than just reeling with a 4-8 team mark, but has has quarterback issues that make this a less-than spectacular offense right now. Let's not even talk about Darnell Dockett being accused of spitting at teammate Kerry Rhodes during an altercation late in the Cardinals' 7-6 loss to the New York Jets last Sunday.
John Skelton will start for Arizona, while Ryan Lindley will be sent to the bench. And I don't see any of the quarterbacks on that roster being able to do anything against the Seahawks' fourth-ranked defense in Seattle.
Laying double digits is normally a big deal in the NFL against a division opponent that has already seen you once, but I don't seeing that making too much a difference in this game. Especially this being a revenge game from Sept. 9, when the Cardinals beat the Seahawks, 20-16 on Sept. 9.
Lay the points boys.
3♦ SEATTLE
Chuck O'Brien
Last Sunday's comp play was the Steelers outright at Baltimore.
Today's selection is going to be Cincinnati (-3') over Dallas, and I want you to buy the half-point down on the Bengals, playing it intelligently since there is a hook dangling from the point spread.
I have to look at the 'what have you done for me lately' theory with this game, and I see the Cowboys needed heroics to beat an equally struggling Philadelphia Eagles team last week, while the Bengals took care of business on the road at San Diego. Sorry Cowboys fans, but the Bengals are taking this playoff run much more seriously than your Pokes.
I know Dallas has won three of last four, scoring 38, 23, 38 and 38 points, but look at the teams it has faced: Philadelphia (twice), Washington and Cleveland. I don't believe it's been tested defensively at all in a while, and today is the day it hits a brick wall. The Bengals lead the league in sacks with 39, followed by Denver (38) and Houston (36), while defensive tackle Geno Atkins leads all NFL interior linemen with 9-1/2 sacks. I expect the Bengals to put the heat on Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, who is playing behind a battered offensive line.
Meanwhile, Cincy's offense is led by quarterback Andy Dalton, who ranks second in the AFC in fourth-quarter passer rating at 100.1. So even if Dallas is keeping things close, or even leading, you best believe the Bengals are never out of it. The rushing game has improved of late, as running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has run for more than 100 yards in each of the team's last three outings. After averaging a mere 93.7 yards rushing over the first nine games, Cincinnati has averaged 179.3 in its last three.
Look for a complete effort on all sides of the ball, as Cincinnati gets it done.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the underdog Kansas City Chiefs as they visit the Cleveland Browns.
No doubt KC has had a very trying time recently, but they were able to muster an emotional win last week against Carolina, and they have been playing competitive football since their overtime cover at Pittsburgh a month ago, covering in three of their last four tries as the underdog.
Cleveland has been playing some competitive football also, winning their last pair outright and going 3-1-1 against the spread their past five games. That's all fine and dandy, but looking at this game, the Brownies are in the rare role of favorite, a role they pushed in last week at Oakland.
As a home favorite, the Browns are just 1-5-1 the past two-plus seasons, and this is their first try as a home favorite all season long. Likely that Cleveland extends their winning streak to three in a row as Kansas City has got to be emotional fraught now that the tragedy has had some time to settle in, but I see this game being decided by no more than a field goal.
Chiefs plus the points the call here.
2♦ KANSAS CITY
Chris Jordan
My free winner for Sunday is going to be the Atlanta Falcons laying points in tobacco country, as I like the Dirty Birds to get it done against the Carolina Panthers. I do see the consensus line is 3-1/2, so I want you to buy the half point off the point spread, and laying a flat field goal in this game.
Although many of us have become accustomed to seeing Atlanta's "Matty Ice" Ryan some of his trademark late-game heroics take place against Carolina, I think the Falcons are going to get it done with ease in this one, as they don't have time to screw around with the season coming to a close soon.
We've seen three different Ryans, in my opinion. Over the first four games of the season, Ryan threw for 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions. In games 5 through 8, he threw six touchdown passes and four interceptions. More recently, he's thrown five touchdown strikes and seven miscues over his past four games.
Time to get back to dominating. And since Carolina is easily one of the more physical teams Atlanta will play all season, and the front four is as good as any it'll go against, Ryan has no choice but to be on top of his game today. In the first meeting, a 30-28 win on Sept. 30, Ryan tallied an impressive 369 yards, threw three touchdowns versus one interception and was sacked seven times.
That last part needs to change, and I think the Falcons are going to do a better job of protecting him in this game.
Through the deficiencies this season, Atlanta is still 11-1. It's still finding ways to win. It still found a way to clinch the NFC South title. And I think it's going to find a way to look as dominating as it was in the first quarter of the season.
Ryan has won seven of his last eight starts against the Panthers, including six straight, and I'm going to take the Falcons here to roll in Charlotte.
4♦ ATLANTA
Matt Rivers
Sunday's free play is for the Eagles-Buccaneers game to head Over the posted total.
Philadelphia has stated they will be going with quarterback Nick Foles for the remainder of the season, and in his two starts against Carolina and Dallas, both games have landed Over the total. Philly comes into Tampa Bay having played Overs in five of their last seven games. They will take on a Tampa team that has been an Over team this season.
Tampa Bay has played Overs in eight of their last nine, and nine of their dozen games overall.
With the Philly defense having allowed 30 points or more in four straight and five of their last six, I would say there is a strong chance the Bucs will make it 10-3 Over the total this season.
Points add up on the Pirate Ship this Sunday afternoon, Philadelphia-Tampa Bay Over the total.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA-TAMPA BAY OVER
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Dakota +16 over NORTH DAKOTA STATE: In state teams square off in what should be a relatively tight game. North Dakota is off to a rough start at 1-5, but they haven't played all that bad of late, losing their last 3 games by 5, 1 and 3 points. In their last road game they played at South Dakota State as 19.5 point dogs and lost by just 1 point. SDS is in the summit league and projected to win that league, so North Dakota can certainly hang with the Bison which are project 3rd in that Conference. Last year North Dakota was in the Great West Conference, but have made the jump to the Big Sky this year and are projected 3rd in that conference and with 4 starters back from last years team that won 17 games, they can contend for the Big Sky Title. Don't let the 1-5 start fool ya, this is a team that is still pretty good and will have enough to keep this one close vs a Bison team that has fattened up on a weak schedule.
Canisius -5 over MARIST: Canisius has allot of revenge to get out the way this year after going 1-17 in MAAC play last year and after beating Fairfield last time out they will make it two in a row on the revenge front by taking care of a weak Marist squad. A big reason that Marist is struggling this year is due to an offense that is one of the worst in the country, putting up just 55.1 ppg (337th) on 37.1% shooting (337th). Numbers like that will not help this team keep up with the run and gun style that Canisius employs this year. That style of offense has allowed Canisius to put up 75.2 ppg (61st) on 45.3% shooting (98th). The Golden Griffins also get a huge edge at the FT Line (75.5% to 61.7%). Marist does have a slight edge on defense, but they just don't have enough scoring in them to keep this one close.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Philadelphia/ Tampa bay Over 47.5: The Philadelphia defense has been worse since Juan Castillo and it doesn't look like it will get any better anytime soon. The Eagles come in having allowed 32.5 ppg in their last 6 games, which includes allowing 28 points or more in all 6 games. That is playing some bad defense. The Eagles have allowed 392 ypg overall, including 256 ypg through the air in their last 3 games and will now take on a Tampa offense that has become a high powered attack this year. The Bucs have been airing it out allot this year and they come in ranked 12th in passing (242.9 ypg), while at home they have piled up 271.8 ypg passing and 26.8 ppg. Their last 3 at home as been even more impressive as they have average 297.3 ypg passing and 28.3 ppg over that stretch. Just like the Eagles, the Bucs defense has struggled this year and has the worst passing defense in the league (309.4 ypg). In their last 3 at home the Bucs have allowed 343.8 ypg and 27.7 ppg. They will be taking on an eagles defense that has struggled this year, but Nick Foles is getting more comfortable in running the offense and they have put up 55 points in their last 2 games. Both teams should air the ball out a ton in this one and that should have us seeing at least 50 points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Jets/ Jags Under 38: I really don't expect this game to get out of the 20's. The Jets offense has been horrible of late, scoring in single digits in 3 of their last 5 games, while averaging just 13.8 ppg over that stretch. The Jets have really looked confused all year on offense and they come in 29th overall and 28th in passing and as you have seen, their offense is getting worse as the season goes on. The Jags offense has been horrible all season as they come in ranked 31st overall, 24th in passing and 32nd in rushing, while scoring just 17.2 ppg overall. At home they have been downright putrid, putting up just 242.5 ypg and 11.3 ppg. Totally horrible. The defense has not been that good for both teams, but I just don't expect these offenses to be able to take advantage. 27 points at most here.
Atlanta/ Carolina Over 48: Theses teams have combined for at least 48 points in the last 3 meetings, including 58 points in the first meeting this year. The Atlanta offense continues to be steady as they come in averaging 26.4 ppg on the year. Their Passing offense is really clicking, having thrown for 266.7 ypg in their last 3 games. Most teams dont have great numbers on the road, but the Falcons do as they average 408 ypg overall, including 315 ypg through the air, while putting up 28.7 ppg away from home this year. The Carolina defense has been bad at home this year as they have allowed 379.3 ypg overall, 262.2 ypg through the air and 26.8 ppg on their home field this year. The Carolina offense has been pretty weak at home, but the Atlanta defense has allowed 27 ppg in their last 2 games away from and they should give up some points here as well. Just like the first game, we should see allot of balls in the air and that should lead to allot of points on the scoreboard.
2 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ Buffalo Under 42
Tennessee +5.5 Over INDIANAPOLIS: Google New Play The Colts have been the feel good story of the year, but how much do they have left in the tank to be able to take on the lowly Titans? In the first meeting it took a late 80 yard drive by Luck to tie the game before they finally won the game in OT. The Titans are just 4-8 on the year, but this bad defense has been much better of late as they have allowed just 302.7 ypg in their last 3 games. The Colts are off a game vs the Pats and two 4th quarter comeback and they have a road date vs Houston up next. Can you say flat spot? I think this is a flat spot and it should allow the Titans to keep it close.
1 UNIT PLAY
Chicago -2.5 over MINNESOTA: Google News Play Chicago is 6-0 ATS the last 6 in the series, while the Vikes are just 4-13-3 ATS in their last 20 vs a team with a winning record and 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 vs the NFC North. Couple of weeks ago the Bears won 28-10 and I that game Jay Cutler did enough to win the game, while the Bears defense did the rest. I expect that same formula here. This Minnesota offense is just not good enough to put up many points on this tough defense. Look for Cutler to have a solid game and the Bears defense to do the rest.
Wunderdog
Siena at Manhattan
Pick: Siena +7
Siena plays tough defense and slows the pace down, allowing 58 and 62 points their last two games. Siena has a 6-8 senior in O.D. Anosike, who is a handful in the frontcourt, averaging 12.7 points and 13 boards. Manhattan is favored, but are no powerhouse team riding an 0-2 SU/ATS run despite being favored the last game, a 62-58 loss to Marist. Manhattan can't shoot as they are shooting 39% as a team and averaging just 57 ppg, so laying points with a bad offense is dangerous. The Jaspers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall and 0-4 ATS against a team with a losing record. They are also 0-6 ATS in their last six against the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. And when these teams meet, the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Play Siena!
RICH SPORTS
Play New Orleans plus the points versus the New York Giants. Drew Brees is sort of a Giant-slayer. In his last two games against the Giants, he's completing 69% of his passes, thrown for over 700 yards, and has 8 TDs with no interceptions (and 1 rushing TD as well). I look for him to avenge his horrible outing in Atlanta last week and put up big numbers against a Giant defense that just got gashed by the Skins. With all of the problems the Giants have on their offensive line, losing Locklear Monday night and seeing Boothe hurt as well the Saints keep this one close and may just win it outright.
Play under the total in the Orlando versus Phoenix game. The Magic have come back to earth after winning their 1st 2 games of their west coast road trip and scoring 113 and 102 in those games. Their last 2 games have been what they have been most of the season scoring only 81 and 82 points. The Suns just are not the scoring machine they have been in the past as they have not made it to 100 in their last 7 games.