Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 2

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to snap a four-game losing streak against an Orlando team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games. Boston is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5)

Game 801-802: Orlando at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 108.117; Boston 116.351
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 8; 186
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5); Under

NHL

Detroit at Washington
The Red Wings beat the Capitals 4-3 in a shootout at home on Friday and now head to Washington with the Caps carrying a 1-10 record in their last 11 games when playing on 1 days rest. Detroit is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115)

Game 51-52: Detroit at Washington (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.760; Washington 10.829
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+115); Over

Game 53-54: Winnipeg at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 10.069; Montreal 11.507
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-150); Under

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Michigan at Indiana
The Hoosiers host a Michigan team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at Assembly Hall. Indiana is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2)

Game 803-804: Purdue at Penn State (11:30 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 63.747; Penn State 63.079
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 1; 148
Vegas Line: Penn State by 3 1/2; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+3 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: South Florida at Cincinnati (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 53.253; Cincinnati 75.656
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 22 1/2; 117
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Virginia at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 70.655; Pittsburgh 77.327
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 119
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 125
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-4); Under

Game 809-810: Oakland at WI-Milwaukee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 53.170; WI-Milwaukee 50.671
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 2 1/2; 158
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 2; 151
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+2); Over

Game 811-812: Michigan at Indiana (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 70.951; Indiana 71.740
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1; 144
Vegas Line: Michigan by 2 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Over

Game 813-814: Buffalo at Bowling Green (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 58.828; Bowling Green 54.913
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 122
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-2 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: William & Mary at James Madison (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 51.363; James Madison 52.973
Dunkel Line: James Madison by 1 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Pick; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: James Madison; Under

Game 817-818: UCLA at Oregon State (2:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 69.840; Oregon State 66.782
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 3; 159
Vegas Line: UCLA by 5 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+5 1/2); Over

Wunderdog

Highest-Scoring Half
Play: 2nd + OT -135

Once again we look to take advantage of an oddsmakers error in a prop bet on which they have miscalculated. Which half of football games sees more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 23.3 points being scored on average in the first half and 23.6 scored in the second half of games. But we need to dig deeper. In 47 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.49 and 24.32. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. Excluding the push in 2012, the second half has been the highest scoring half in 29 of 46 Super Bowls (63%). Fair odds on a 63% bet are -170. But, it gets better. Lets look at how things have changed over the years. The discrepancy has become more pronounced. In the last 23 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.31, Second half = 28.18. That's a 26% difference in points! In the last 16 years, the second half has been the highest scoring half 12 times out of 14 years (85.7%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 three years ago in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 13 out 14 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, -135 odds on this bet provides a lot of value.

SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle +108 over DENVERFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Roughly about six weeks ago, books were putting out a Super Bowl line that featured the NFC versus the AFC, regardless of the matchup. This wasn’t a random number either, as the oddsmakers had to consider every possible Super Bowl matchup and what they came up with was the NFC as a 2½-point choice regardless of the matchup. Surely at that point, a Seattle/Denver Super Bowl was a distinct possibility that certainly was considered when they posted that advanced line. Now, we can break down this game like anyone else but that would just be redundant, as we all know it’ll come down to Seattle’s defense versus Denver’s offense. That said, we’re always looking to play the side that offers up the most value and when you consider that just a few weeks ago, the NFC was a 2½-point favorite over the AFC, our choice isn’t a difficult one.
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The betting market loves offense and they love Peyton Manning. Make no mistake. This is Manning's Super Bowl as far as the media is concerned. He will embody the success or failure by the Broncos. He's the default MVP unless someone else does something really notable. He deserves it too, as watching Manning run an offense, especially when you have money on him, is one of the most enjoyable and compelling spectacles in sports. No QB in the history of the NFL has ever had as much presence, knowledge or ability to instantly recognize what the defense is bringing as Peyton Manning. He is the master of the quick read and perhaps the toughest quarterback to confuse in the NFL. However, this is also going to be the coldest Super Bowl ever and that has to favor the Seahawks. It’ll favor the Seahawks even more if there are gusty winds.
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Let’s not forget that the Broncos defense is pure garbage. Week after week, they were torched but their league-leading offense masked their deficiencies. They Broncos surrendered 51 points to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to K.C., 28 to Tennessee and 34 to New England. That’s just five games and Seahawks didn’t give up that many points in combined in their final 13 games of the year including playoffs.
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When we look at the schedules of these teams throughout the year, what we see is a Broncos team that had it rather easy. Their best win was against New England in the AFC Championship? Kansas City? Truthfully, the Broncos played weakling after weakling that included games against Oakland (twice) Baltimore, the Giants, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston, Tennessee and Philadelphia. Of course Manning is going to put up big numbers against that group. The Broncos toughest games this year were against Dallas, Indy, New England and Kansas City. They lost to the Patriots in the regular season, they lost to both Dallas and Indy and they defeated K.C both times, by 10 and 7 points respectively. Meanwhile, the Seahawks played San Fran three times, New Orleans twice and Carolina once. They went 4-1 in those games with only loss occurring in San Fran by two points.
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Seattle is the 16th team to appear in the Super Bowl as the squad that allowed the fewest points during the regular season. The previous 15 that accomplished the same feat are 12-3 in the championship game. Peyton Manning led the NFL in passing. A regular season passing leader has NEVER won a Super Bowl and only four have been in the SB. They all lost, Dan Marino in 1984, Kurt Warner in 2001, Rich Gannon in 2002 and Tom Brady in 2007. You can add Peyton Manning in 2013 to that group. The better team taking a tag is the right way to play this one.

Chad MatthewsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game? - Over 27.5 -130
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Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning shouted the audible call "Omaha" 44 times during Denver’s divisional playoff win over the San Diego Chargers. After his calls gained national attention following that game, Manning used “Omaha” less in the AFC Championship Game but still managed to say it 31 times. Businesses based in Omaha, Nebraska, have donated money, including Omaha Steaks, Mutual of Omaha, FNB Omaha, CenturyLink, ConAgra Foods, Union Pacific, DJ's Dugout and Cox Communications every time Manning says "Omaha" This fund-raising program will now continue on to the Super Bowl, with each "Omaha" Manning utters being worth more money since more Omaha businesses will participate for this Sunday's event.

Allen EastmanFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Will there be a score in the first 6:30 of the game? - No -110VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I don’t expect much scoring early in the game. Both defenses will set the tone. There is so much build up to this game that both teams will come out and be conservative. No one wants to make an early mistake that could cost their team the game. I think that both teams are going to struggle to get used to the weather. And both teams will have nerves to deal with. I think both teams will have to punt on their first drive and maybe their first two drives. Thus, I don’t expect to see any points right out of the gate in this game.

AlatexFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshawn Lynch receiving yardsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 15.5 -130FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Marshawn Lynch has not been a part of the passing game much this season, but it has been even less in recent weeks. He caught a total of 37 passes in 18 games thus far for a total of 319 yards. Breaking it down game by game, this prop would have only cashed six times and two of those totaled 16 yards receiving. Looking at just the most recent games, Lynch has caught a total of four passes for 12 yards in the last four games. He would have gone over this prop total in just one of Seattle’s last eight games. Seattle is not a big screen team and Lynch is obviously not a check-down target of Russell Wilson. The math alone gives us value in playing this one under the total.

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Will the game ever be tied after 0-0 (first score)?VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Yes +105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This has all the makings of being a back and forth game between two teams that not only were the best teams in their respective conferences but who I predicted to reach Super Bowl XLVIII during the preseason. Denver’s strength on offense is throwing the football whereas Seattle boasts the #1 pass defense in the league. On the flip side, the Seahawks are at their best when they can effectively run the football with Marshawn Lynch which in turn sets up the passing game for Russell Wilson. Seattle has a capable passing attack but they’d prefer to get the ground game going first. However, Denver’s best attribute defensively is stopping the run as they held both playoff opponents, San Diego and New England, to 129 rushing yards combined (3.8 ypc). So you essentially have strength vs. strength which is why I believe separation will be very difficult to obtain. I projecte a competitive affair from start to finish. At the small plus price, I made a bet on there being a tie score at least once during the course of the game.

Teddy CoversFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Doug Baldwin Total Receiving YardsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 39.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books. But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin. And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch. He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Scott Delaney
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
I see Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch has the all-around garden variety running back proposition bets available at most sports books. Some are more intriguing to me than others, but the first one I want you looking at is the number of receptions he will have in the championship game.
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I see the number listed at two (2) receptions, with the Over being priced at +110. That truly makes no sense to me, knowing the Seahawks' Russell Wilson will be looking to use dink-and-dunk methods to move the ball effectively in this cold-weather game. Although Wilson has top targets to turn to, including Percy Harvin, who will return, his best option in those short-yardage situations will be Lynch.
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The quietly spoken running back who didn't have much to say during Tuesday's Media Day, I think will speak in volumes with a diverse offensive effort, and should catch at least two passes from Wilson. That would be a push, at the very least. But let's just say they find a rhythm - Wilson and Lynch - they could easily connect four times.
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In 16 regular season games, Lynch caught 2 or more passes 10 different times. In seven games he caught at least three passes. In two playoffs games, he has just one reception, I understand that. But this is an entirely different football game, and his services will need to expand for this game. For the record, his most receptions in one game this season - it came against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, where he caught six passes. In fact, he was most effective as a receiver with six receptions for 73 yards, while he rushed for only 47 yards.
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5♦ MARSHAWN LYNCH OVER 2 RECEPTIONS
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To go along with a play on Marshawn Lynch catching more than two passes in the big game, I have to believe his teammate, and quarterback, Russell Wilson, will complete more than 16-1/2 passes in this game.
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Though it's easy to say the second-year pro has been in a funk of late, averaging just 12.5 completions in the playoffs, and 12.75 in his last four games overall, this is the big stage and his presence is necessary for a team win.
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Wilson will also welcome back Percy Harvin, and against Denver’s 27th-ranked pass defense, I suspect he'll be able to produce much better numbers than we've seen since mid-December.
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The 5-foot-11, 205-pound strong-armed quarterback completed at least 18 passes in seven regular-season games, and 15 or more passes in 10 regular-season games. He also responded in his team's biggest game to-date - the NFC Championship against San Francisco - with 16 completions against the 49ers' stalwart defense.
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Provided there is no inclement weather, which is becoming evident with latest forecasts, Wilson should be within this number by the time the fourth quarter rolls around, and if the game is as tight as the point spread is prescribing, his dink-and-dunk methods will help creep his tally over the number.
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4♦ RUSSELL WILSON OVER 16-1/2 COMPLETIONS

Another valuable price I see with the big-game props is on Denver cornerback Champ Bailey, and whether or not he'll nab himself an interception. Whether or not the former Georgia-standouot who has waited 15 years to be on this stage actually has a chance against the Seahawks' young gunslinger, Russell Wilson, is beyond me. But you have a guy like that back there in that secondary, and a price of +350 to swipe one pass, I think you have to take a chance.

The Broncos have the 27th-ranked pass defense, and something tells me that's going to give Wilson a bit of confidence -- some chutzpah, if you will -- to stand back in the pocket and fire away at Denver's secondary. And in that cold weather, one good shot from a defensive lineman could result in a wobbly pass Bailey will zero in on.

The hype of Richard Sherman in this game would make any defensive back fired up for their own performance, and I can't think of a better veteran to invest in than a veteran like Bailey.

The key is to keep Wilson contained in the pocket, and I think the Broncos will have a good chance at doing that during the early part of the game, and if we're going to cash in on this prop, it'll be in the second or third quarter.

Regardless of the outcome, or what you think the Broncos are capable of in this game, it's worth a small play on Bailey getting an interception.

3♦ CHAMP BAILEY "YES" INTERCEPTION

I've touched upon two Seattle Seahawks props, then a defensive one for Denver. Let's talk about an offensive proposition for the Broncos in Super Bowl XLVII, as I like what I am seeing with the price on whether or not Knowshon Moreno will score a touchdown in the game.

Kind of ironic I talked about Champ Bailey, a former Georgia-standout, because Moreno is also a Georgia-grad. Those Bulldogs could make a big difference for the Broncos. I was really surprised to see the price so big on the NO for him to score, given the Broncos could find themselves in red-zone territory and short-yardage situations against this Seattle defense.

While the Seahawks have the No. 1 overall defense, the deficiency - if that's a safe word to use - on the stop unit is with the rushing defense, which ranks seventh in the league. It's the one part of Seattle's stop unit the Broncos have to attack, and must be successful against, if they want to win this game.

Moreno rushed for 1,038 yards this season, the first time he reached the 1,000-yard plateau. The Broncos' offensive line has opened enough holes for Moreno to capitalize on most defensive coverages and tally a cumulative 1,761 yards from scrimmage.

The 5-foot-11, 220-pound bruising power back recorded a career-best 13 touchdowns - including 10 on the ground - and it's pure value to bet he'll get one in the big game, when the price is Even money.

4♦ KNOWSHON MORENO "YES" TOUCHDOWN

Rob Veno

Total Yardage Of All Field Goals Made
Recommendation: Over 110.5

The current game time weather report of 35-40 degrees and moderate winds diminishing throughout the night helps to provide value for this play. The baseline premise figures there to be a minimum of three combined field goals in this contest which averages out to a 38 yarder and a pair of 37’s. Denver’s PK Matt Prater and Seattle’s Steven Hauschka have each proven to be extremely accurate from between 30-49 yards. Combined, the duo has connected on 33 of 34 97%. The only miss was a 48-yard indoor attempt by Hauschka which was blocked by the Indianapolis Colts. There is recent history that can be applied here as both of these kickers played in Met Life Stadium this season. Prater kicked in a late afternoon game with perfect 70 degree, 3 mph wind conditions back on September 15 and went 2 for 2 from 42 and 47 yards. In his only road game with an attempt in subpar weather, he went 1-1 (27 yards) at New England in 22 degree and 22 mph wind conditions. It is important to note that that was also a Sunday night game played outdoors in the Northeast with more difficult elements than what’s projected for this Super Bowl. All things considered, we can feel pretty comfortable with Prater up to 49 yards out.

Seattle’s Steven Haushka has kicked in adverse weather at home multiple times including the playoff game three weeks ago versus New Orleans. He was 3-3 (38, 49, 26) in that game with 20 mph winds. The Seahawks last seven games have all been played in temperatures between 36-48 degrees. Hauschka was terrific in this venue on December 15th going hitting all three field goal attempts (49, 44, 24) when the temperature was 30 degrees with the wind chill.

Figuring the kickers to be reliable inside 50 yards the component of ample opportunities must occur to cash this prop. In 18 games this season, the Seahawks have had two or more field goal attempts 16 times (89%) and they’ve had three tries in each of their playoff games. Denver has trended toward multiple field goal attempts recently having tried 16 in their last six games and at least two in each of those. The numbers suggest that this pair of dependable kickers will have enough opportunities to compile made field goal aggregate yardage of over 110.5.

Alex SmartFOR REE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. DenverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 48FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The under has dominated this years playoffs. Whether it is part of a coincidental trend or because teams tend to play more conservatively in the post season. Did the weather play a roll or did some unfortunate offensive drives and miscues end with fewer points being scored? Im sure it was all of the above and even more situations I did not mention that surely contributed to the low scoring games.
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Alot of consideration and time has gone into setting the total on this years Super Bowl. The linesmakers in my humble opinion may have under estimated the number by a few points, on the low side, as my own numbers suggest a total that fits in better at around 50 total points going on the board. The compensation of the total from the books comes from this years playoff under trend. With so much square money coming in on this contest ,you can bet the basic approach of most of these bettors will be to chase what has already been trending.
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In closing conventional wisdom is not always wrong, but profits soar when a sports investor can identify the right situations and find value going against the public. I personally would tend to feel that this game shows some value on the Total being eclipsed.

Alex Smart's Featured Package

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle Seahawks Denver BroncosFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Seattle Seahawks +2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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At the beginning of the year a lot of experts picked Denver and Seattle to face each other in the Super Bowl and then after this wacky season it is ironic that they indeed are playing each other. This is a Super Bowl like no other. Each year this big game holds a story line. Peyton Manning was out of football 2 years ago and now has broken records that could stand for years to come. This is a guy who couldn’t shake your hand with any force 48 months ago and now has his team in the Super Bowl. In my opinion he is in the top 5 quarterbacks to ever play the game. The problem for Manning is he is 37 years old and is up against the new aged defense of the NFL in the Seahawks. Seattle is number one across the board in all defensive categories. This Seahawks Defense is years ahead of what defenses in the NFL will be like in years to come. They are the LeBron James of football. When Seattle has the ball they will give Denver a look they are not used to. Russell Wilson can move the chains with his feet and that is something Denver is not used to as they have faced mostly in the pocket quarterbacks. Seattle can run the rock and play great defense. This is a winning combo to win the Super Bowl. There has been a lot of talk about the Denver Defense over the past month. This is a defense that gave up a ton of points early in the season and then as they lost their best players actually got better statistically. I chalk this up to nothing more than the opponents they have played not playing that well in that Denver thin air. This is a defensive unit that lost key players in all levels of their defense. This super bowl reminds me of the Raiders/Bucs if I had to compare it to one. The overall team speed favors the Seahawks. Top rated defenses usually win Super Bowls. Both teams are deserving to win this game and I think it should be a good one, but in the end I think Seattle can disrupt Manning enough to win this football game. Let's not forget about Percy Harvin the ultimate X Factor in a game like this. Take Seattle.

Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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LONGEST SUCCESSFUL FIELD GOAL - Over 44.5 YardsVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Many people are concerned about the weather and the wind in New York and think it will negatively affect the two kickers, but that just gives us value on this wager. Denver's Matt Prater and Seattle's Steven Hauschka made 58-of-61 field goals in the regular season and 11-of-12 in the postseason. They have also been very good from long distances, making 9-of-10 field goals of 50 or more yards and 19-of-20 from 40-49 yards. Both of these kickers' home stadiums are outside so they are used to the elements, and both have already played in this stadium during the regular season. This game is expected to be close and both coaches won't hesitate to try a long field goal when they are in this range, especially at the end of the half, or the end of the game. Go over 44.5.