Joe Gavazzi
Seattle +2 & Under 48.5
It can be generalized into a simplistic choice of offense vs defense. QB Manning and the Broncos possess arguably the best offense in the history of the NFL. The Seattle defense was the best in the league this year. Anyone who has followed my history of NFL selections will not be surprised that I am favoring Seattle with the superior defense and running game.
Behind QB Manning and an offensive line that kept him virtually untouched the entire season, Manning threw for nearly 5,500 yards and 55 TDs to rack up over 600 points, the highest scoring offense ever in the NFL. A diverse receiving corps includes wideouts, Welker, Thomas, and Decker, along with TE Thomas. They were quickly on the same page with their QB from the beginning of the season. The running of RBs Ball and Moreno that led to a nearly 120 RYPG ground game that kept things honest and provided a semblance of balance. The defense allowed 25 PPG, though much of that came in garbage time. Most important in this game will be a rush defense that allowed just 100/3.9 per game. A clear advantage for the Broncos is the vast Super Bowl experience edge of HC Fox and QB Manning.
Our preference in this game, however, will be the better running game and the league’s number one defense. What the Seahawks lack in Super Bowl experience, they make up for in attitude. That is something that has directly filtered down from HC Carroll, who has created a highly competitive atmosphere and brings great energy to the entire team. Leading the offense is second year QB Wilson. He is not going to win the game for the Seahawks, but he has proven in two years that he is mature beyond his years and will most probably avoid critical mistakes. It’s the Seattle ground game at 140/3.3 that is their bread and butter. Though the OL endured numerous injuries throughout the season, they are now as healthy as they have been since August. It is that unit that will open holes for beastly RB Lynch, who is the emotional leader of the offense with inspirational runs in which he refuses to be tackled. The Seahawks’ receiving corps is less dynamic than that of the Broncos. WRs Tate, Kearse, and Baldwin are hardly household names or even appear on many fantasy league rosters. The real X Factor for this offense is the return of the explosive Percy Harvin, a potential game breaker with both his kick returns and his ability to gain yards after the catch. This is an underrated offense whose job it will be to move the ball on the ground and with precision, playing keep away from the Broncos’ offense. But the real star of this team is the number one defense, who leads the league with only 15 PPG, while allowing just 283 YPG. Most impressive is the 59% completion rate allowed for just 5.4 yards per catch. If you’re looking for the X Factor of this defense, consider that they lead the league in takeaways and turnover margin with +23. And I’ve made it very clear about the importance of being on the plus side of the turnover margin, as any team in the NFL regular season who authored a positive turnover margin had a record of 154-32 ATS.
It’s far easier to bet the Broncos in this game and root for the offense. If you bet the Seahawks, you’ll be holding your breath the entire game that QB Manning and the Broncos’ offense does not explode. Yet this bureau will hold fast to the tried and true formula that running game, a superior defense, and a positive turnover margin is what wins in the NFL. Those factors clearly point to the Seahawks, who are my selection for this Super Bowl victory.
Regarding the over/under selection: there’s never been a higher scoring season in the NFL. Rule changes favor the offense, as does the more offensive minded philosophy. If you’ve followed our over/under selections this season, you know we took advantage of the built in 2-3 points of value when the line maker failed to adjust for the greater scoring. In this game, however, we must shift gears as fundamentals clearly point to a lower scoring game. As the season wore on, the Bronco offense became more conservative. That has been especially true in a pair of playoff victories. Yet the strong history of overs for Denver is what in part keeps this total propped up. It would be quite a surprise if the Seattle game plan did not incorporate a keep away philosophy to it. It has been their MO for much of the season. The result is that each of these teams have recently authored 5 consecutive unders. And despite the fact that fireworks often evolve in the fourth quarter of Championship games, I still believe that the percentage side is for a lower scoring game.
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Seattle vs. DenverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 48½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle relies upon Marshawn Lynch to do their work on offense. This is the keep QB, Russell Wilson from making as few mistakes as possible. Therefore the Seahawks will keep the ball on the ground against the 7th-ranked stop-unit of the Denver defense. Wilson has no deep-threat and knowing this, the Bronco's will keep the pressure on from a slew of schemes from the LB corps from every angle. Denver can score but have put a lot of stock in the ground game of Moreno and Ball which allows Manning to open up the passing game but does use up a lot of clock. Weather is forecasted as low-temperature, possible snow, and high, swirling winds. This will keep Manning and his high-flying air attack very careful. Seattle also ranks #1 in Total Yards, Passing Yards, and Points Allowed on "D". The Seahawks have had trouble protecting their QB, while the Bronco's offense has post-season experience to keep mistakes to a minimum and wear down the Seahawks. Seattle has played to 7 straight Unders while Denver comes in with 5 in a row Under the number. Take the Under.
Insider Angles
Team to have more first downs in the game – Seattle +2½ (+135): As you will see, we opted to go with positive odds for all of our prop selections beginning with this one. This comes down to the style of play that each team enjoys, as the Broncos are more of a quick strike team while the Seahawks are more methodical with a ball-control offense keyed by the running of Marshawn Lynch and the game management of Russell Wilson, who does not make many mistakes. We actually feel that underdog Seattle will do a better job of running its offense the way it wants here, as we do not expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have has easy a time against the top ranked defense in football as they did vs. typical AFC defenses. That does not necessarily mean that the Seahawks will emerge victorious, but we do think they will win the Time of Possession battle, which would be a boon to this prop.
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135): No matter how experienced you are, there are always some nerves early in the Super Bowl that can lead to some sloppy play until the teams settle down. Also, as mentioned, the Broncos may not have as easy a time finding the end zone early on vs. the best defense they have seen all year, and they may settle for a field goal the first time they are faced with a fourth down decision just to get some points on the board. And if the Seahawks are the first team to score, it is even more likely to be a field goal as Wilson is more apt to throw the ball away in the red zone if nothing is open. Both teams have solid kickers in Matt Prater of the Broncos and Steven Hauschka.
Will there be one scoreless quarter – Yes (+240): This play, besides the great odds being offered, is based more on Seattle being able to do what it wants. We think that the Seahawks will be successful in slowing down Manning, who again has not faced a defense nearly as good as Seattle’s all season, and his targets for at least one full quarter and we also trust the Seattle offense to take time off the clock. Of course, this prop would also require the Seahawks to bog down around midfield before getting into field goal range, but our feeling here is that the +240 odds make this risk worthwhile.
Montee Ball pass receptions – ‘under’ 1½ (+120): Ball had a total of 20 receptions in 16 regular season games, and after being held without a catch in the first playoff game, the only reason he caught three passes in the AFC Championship Game was because the Broncos had a big enough lead on the Patriots that they took the opportunity to give Knowshon Moreno and his ailing ribs that have bothered him since he rushed for 224 yards at New England back in Week 12 some rest. We do not anticipate a blowout here and remember that Ball is still a fumble prone rookie, so do expect to see him on the field as much here with Moreno having had two full weeks off to recover since playing basically one half last game.
Peyton Manning throws an interception before throwing a touchdown (+200): Did we mention that the Seahawks are the best defense that Manning has seen all season? And the biggest strength of the defense is the secondary, led by one of the best cover corners in the game in Richard Sherman. And if you do not believe that Sherman is one of the league’s best cornerbacks, you can just ask him! Yes, Manning had 55 touchdown passes vs. 10 interceptions during the year, but as the adage goes, “Good defense stops good offense”, so do not expect Peyton to solve the Seattle defense right away, possibly frustrating him into forcing a pass or two.
Super Bowl XLVIII MVP – Richard Sherman (+2000): It seems almost a given that Manning will win the MVP if the Broncos win even if he does not really deserve it as this may be his last chance as the big prize. But there is practically zero value at taking Manning at a shade over even money at +110, so why not take a shot at these 20/1 odds on the best Seattle defender, as if the Seahawks win, the victory is more likely to be keyed by their great defense. Do not surprised if that includes a Sherman interception, and these odds will look mighty good if he could run one back for a Pick Six.
Jesse Schule
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Will Denver score a rushing TD? Yes/No - Yes
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When I had a chance to look at the prop bets being offered this year, my first thought is that the bookmakers are basing the lines on season averages, and not factoring in certain variables such as weather conditions, injuries and recent trends in these playoffs.
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I think this is a mistake, and I'm planning on exploiting some weak lines with five player props for the big game. These are available for sale for as low as 10$ each.
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I do have a free prop bet for you, and I'm looking at: Denver to score a rushing TD -110. Now some people seem to be expecting the Broncos to come out passing, but if you have watched Denver in these playoffs so far, you will have noticed that their running game has been firing on all cylinders. Both teams could be forced to lean on the run due to weather conditions, and I believe that chances are, the Broncos will punch one in.
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South Florida at CincinnatiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: South FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bearcats come into this one as the filling for a juicy sandwich, coming off a monster battle with Louisville and with a look-ahead game against UConn on deck (Cincy is 2-7 ATS as conference favorites after the Cardinals, and 0-5 ATS at home before the Huskies). And like that 6-foot Italian sub that serves as a rather meaningless appetizer on the Super Bowl spread, this one will attract little attention starting off the afternoon of the NFL?s ultimate showdown. If you look at the Bulls? schedule, you?ll see several road wins dotting the docket, and the Bulls are 6-0 ATS on the road in this series (the visitor is also 11-3 ATS in all USF games at press time). The Bearcats? dismal 3-10 ATS mark as conference chalk laying 14 or more points clinches it. It won?t be pretty, but a Bulls? cover can give you some extra Super Bowl cash. You can thank us later. We recommend a 1-unit play on South Florida.
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UCLA vs. Oregon StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oregon State +5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bruins have been on a nice streak of late but I think this is just too many points to ask them to cover on the road in this situation. Oregon State is 9-2 in home games and will be hungry to not only get a much needed conference game, but to get revenge from a 10 point loss at UCLA the last time these teams met. Note that that UCLA is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5-6 points the past three seasons. The Bruins are coming off a hard fought and narrow two point win over Oregon in their last game and a letdown can be expected here in their second game in row on the road. Oregon State is 2-0 ATS versus UCLA the past three seasons and easily covered the last game it hosted in. Consider taking the points.
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UCLA vs. Oregon StateFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UCLA -5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UCLA has owned this series with Oregon St and has won and covered 11 of the 14 here vs the Beavers. The Bruins are also a solid 5-1 straight up and to the spread vs winning teams and have won all 14 times as a favorite this season with 11 spread wins. In games vs teams who score 77 or more they are 3-1 to the spread. Oregon St is 2-6 vs teams who score 77 or more and has lost 12 of the last 15 February games they have played and have dropped 7 of 11 vs winning teams to the spread. We will lay the couple of points here with UCLA.
Red Dog Sports
Jets vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5½
There are just two games going Sunday afternoon since the Super Bowl is being played later. Montreal has played 17 overs and 29 unders this year. The last four Montreal games reached 5, 3, 5 and 5 goals. The first meeting back in October ended 3-0. Look for an under on Sunday as they get the game over and go home to watch the Super Bowl.
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Orlando Magic at Boston CelticsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Boston CelticsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Not a very exciting game to lead us into today's Super Bowl contest. The long contest on the NBA slate pits two teams that a few years ago where both contenders, no just pretenders. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win, but don't get too excited, it was against the worst team in the NBA - Milwaukee. The win was just the club's third in their last 18 games. One of those wins did come at home against the Celtics, back on January 19th, a 93-91 barnburner. For a club that is rarely favored, you might expect some a decent spread record at least in the dog role. Not really though, as the Magic are just 5-6 ATS their last 12 and before that had eight straight losses vs the number. The Celtics have two more wins this season than the Magic, but they are playing just as bad if not worse. Boston brings a four game losing streak into today's contest. In addition, the Celtics are just 2-16 S/U their last 18 games. They aren't much easier on bettors than the Magic are either, going 2-6 ATS their last eight games. So what tidbit can we grab onto in this contest, being it's the only game in the NBA today? Well, first the Magic are just 4-11 ATS when playing on 1 days rest. They are also just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Celtics get three days off prior to this contest. When they get three days off the Celtics are 5-2 ATS their last 7 times. Boston is also 18-7-1 ATS the last 26 games against the Southeast conference. It isn't a lot, but with their rest I'll lay the short points here with the home club.
Larry Ness
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Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh
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Pittsburgh has won 17 straight at the Petersen Events Center against unranked foes and is in a bad mood...
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Pittsburgh opened the current season 10-0 before losing 44-43 to Cincinnati at MSG on. The Panthers opened the week 18-2 and ranked 18th in the AP poll, with their only other loss coming 59-54 at current No. 2 Syracuse (soon to be No. 1 on Monday). Jamie Dixon can coach. He’s led Pittsburgh to the NCAA tourney in NINE of his 10 seasons at the school and the one season he didn’t make the “Big Dance,” he led the Panthers to the CBI title. Hard to argue with that kind of success.
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Three guards start, a trio including the 6-5 Patterson (17.7-4.8-4.5), Wright (10.8) and Robinson (8.4-4.2 APG). Starting in the frontcourt are 6-9 senior Zanna (13.4-8.0) and 6-8 freshman Young (5.9-4.9). 6-6 sophomore Johnson (8.8-3.0) has been lost for the year with a knee injury but the 6-7 Artis (4.7-3.2) and 6-9 Rutgers transfer Randall (2.5-3.3) are contributing.
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Pittsburgh had been thoroughly dominant at home during its inaugural season in the Atlantic Coast Conference, until a long-time ACC powerhouse (Duke) paid the Panthers a visit this past Monday. Pittsburgh (18-3, 6-2) won its first 12 at home this season before struggling in the second half of Monday's 80-65 loss to the No. 17 Blue Devils. The Panthers shot 41.2 percent (21 for 51) overall -- a season low on their floor -- and were outscored 46-33 after the break. Following their biggest loss of the season against Duke, the No. 18 Panthers will look to bounce back when they host Virginia on Sunday.
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A win against Virginia (16-5, 7-1) will put Pitt in second place behind Syracuse, which improved to 8-0 in the conference with a 91-89 overtime win over Duke on Saturday. The Cavaliers are 7-1 SU (8-0 ATS) since Jan 1, losing only 69-65 at Duke, as a six-point underdog. Virginia (at 7-1) is off to its best ACC start since Ralph Sampson's team of 1982-83! The Cavs are offensively-patient and defensively, smothering. Virginia allows just 56.0 PPG (2nd-best) on 38.1 percent shooting (9th).
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However, I wonder just how the Cavs can keep winning with the team's lack of offense. Last year's two-best players both returned but both are WAY off LY's contributions. Harris led the team in scoring from the wing at 16.3 PPG but this year is averaging only 11.5 PPG. The 6-8 Mitchell averaged 13.1 & 8.9 last season but checks in at only 6.6 & 6.5 TY. Starting with those two are 6-5 guard Brogdon (11.6-5.3), PG Perrantes (4.5-3.8 APG) and the 6-11 Tobey (7.8-4.6).
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I'm betting Pitt bounces back here, as after all, the Panthers are 12-1 at home (after the 15-point loss to Duke), still outscoring opponents on average, 77.6-to-59.8 PPG. Speaking about UVa's visit to the Petersen Events Center, Virginia forward Akil Mitchell told the team's official website, "It's a tough place to play. I think it's more of a big deal because we know that they're a good team, and it's another opportunity (to beat a quality opponent) ... So that'll be fun."
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I believe Mitchell is somewhat understating the situation.The Cavaliers are still seeking their first win this season against a top-25 team. Virginia, which has lost to VCU, Wisconsin and Duke, has not defeated a ranked foe on the road since beating then-No. 15 Minnesota 87-79 on Nov 29, 2010. Prior to the loss against Duke, the Panthers had beaten their first three ACC opponents they hosted by at least 15 points, including a 76-43 rout of Clemson on Jan 21.
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The Panthers have won 17 straight at the Petersen Events Center against unranked foes and Pitt is in a bad mood following its nationally-televised 80-65 home loss to Duke on Monday, Virginia is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time!
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UCLA at Oregon St.FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UCLAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that UCLA will win this game by 7 or more points. SIM projects that UCLA will make between 47 and 53% of their shots; make 38 to 45%of their three-point shot attempts; will score at least 81 points; will commit 10 to 13 turnovers. In past games, the results have been money makers over time when UCLA plays to this level. UCLA is a solid UCLA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when they make 47% to 53% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons; 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) when they make 38% to 45% of their three point attempts in a game since 1997; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 81 or more points in a game this season; 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when they commit 10 to 13 turnovers in a game this season; Oregon State is a money burning 30-71 ATS (-48.1 Units) when they allow 81 or more points in a game since 1997. As you can see the key here for UCLA is to get to 81 points scored and I further do not see a solid way that Oregon State can prevent that from happening this afternoon. Take UCLA.
Steve Janus
Pittsburgh Panthers -4
Pittsburgh has had a full week to think about that 15-point beating they took at home against Duke in their last game. I don't think there's any doubt the Panthers come out looking to make a statement against a very good Virginia squad. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh followed up a heartbreaking 5-point loss at Syracuse just a while back with a 33-point home beat down of Clemson. I don't think the Panthers will be blowing out the Cavaliers by that kind of a margin, but I definitely like their chances of winning here by more than 4-points.
Virginia is just 18-33 ATS in their last 51 road games when listed as an underdog of 6-points or less, while Pittsburgh is a solid 41-25 ATS in their last 66 games after suffering a loss to a conference opponent.
Jeff Alexander
Bowling Green +3
Bowling Green is showing value catching 3 points considering it is 11-3 in its last 14 home games versus Buffalo with each of the losses coming by 3 points or fewer. The Falcons have lost their last two but are 15-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in the series. Grab the points.
Dave Price
Boston Celtics -5½
The Orlando Magic have struggled on the road to say the least. They are 0-10 SU and ATS in their last 10 road games with an average losing margin of 15.7 points. They have especially struggled in Boston where they have lost seven straight by an average of 12.7 points. They went just 1-5-1 ATS in these meetings. The Celtics have received some much needed rest having had the last three days off, and they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing on 3 days' rest or more. It is also worth noting that Boston is 13-2 ATS in Sunday home games the last three seasons, winning these by an average of 8.2 points. Lay the points.
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Oakland +2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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If the Boys from Oakland, Michigan are focused they should avenge a home loss to Wis-Milwaukee from three weeks ago. In that game, the Golden Grizzlies leading scorer Travis Bader scored only seven points on ( 7-7 ) from the foul line. He went ( 0-9 ) from the floor including ( 0-7 ) from three point land. I expect Bader to shoot it well and for point guard Duke Mundy to run the offense with most touches going through Bader who rarely plays poorly two games in a row against the same team. If the Panthers get off to a good start in front of the hometown fans, they could ride that momentum to a season sweep. I'm banking on Bader to be the differnce!