SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit +104 over WASHINGTONFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The blueprint for beating the Capitals is not a difficult one. All one needs to do is stay out of the penalty box and force the Caps to score five on five. Washington is a one-line outfit that has produced an incredible 32% of their goals on the power-play. Five on five, the Caps not only struggle to score, they struggle to get the puck out of their own end. Furthermore, this game is the Caps 10th game since Jan 15 and nine of those have been on the road. They return home after a five game trip that concluded in Detroit on Friday. They lost 4-3 in OT but that is a flattering score to the Capitals, as they were outshot 45-29 and had it not been for Michael Neuvirth, Washington would have been down by four goals or more. Since the Christmas break, the Caps have allowed more shots on net per game than any team in the NHL and the result has been 13 losses in their last 17 games. There is no fix in sight for this team.
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Many folks consider the Red Wings as an older team but that is not true at all. An influx of young talent that is starting to gel is what is going to keep the Red Wings as a force to be reckoned with years to come. The Red Wings have scored four goals or more in four of their past five games. Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader, Riley Sheahan and Darren Helm could all crack just about any lineup in the game. These guys have been groomed to thrive and it’s paying off. The Red Wings are headed in the right direction while the Capitals are one of the worst five teams in the NHL. They’ve been sinking for weeks and they’re not done yet. Better team in a better scheduling spot gets the call.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OREGON STATE +5 over UCLAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bruins are good, make no mistake about that but we’ve seen this scenario play out far too often to ignore it. You see, UCLA is coming off a huge win over the Ducks in Oregon. The Bruins scored a bucket with five seconds left on the clock and those road wins against strong competition is what separates the great from the good in this sport. The Bruins are a tournament team that is going to be many pool participants’ “sleeper” pick to make it the Elite Eight or even the Final Four. However, asking the Bruins to cover by margin here in their second game of back-to-back road tilts is a tall order. UCLA has already played its toughest part of the schedule and that puts them in danger of taking a breather before the final 10 games of the season.
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Oregon State has no such luxury. It’s now or never for the Beavers and should they lose here, they are not going to the post-season. The Beavers are just 4-4 in the conference and 12-8 overall and they’re going to need to put together a big run against big programs to have a chance at an invite. OSU is playing some decent ball right now. They’ve won three of their past five games, which include an 11-point win in Washington. The Ducks are an outstanding shooting outfit that ranks 14th in the country in FG % and 50th in points scored. Beavers forward Eric Moreland, who was serving a suspension for violation of team rules, has been back for eight games now and he makes a huge difference on this team. He’s an NBA prospect that can block shots, score points and rebound and he already has 16 blocked shots this season. The Bruins have a truly stellar statistical profile but they are just 2-2 on the road while the Beavers are 9-2 at home. In a similar spot on January 16th and 18th, UCLA won in Colorado and subsequently lost two days later in Utah. Seldom do we trust a ranked team to pull away and win by a margin on the road after a big road win just three days ago.
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Pass NBAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
DAVE COKIN
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS DENVER BRONCOS
PLAY: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +2.5
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
This will be about the briefest analysis you’ll find on one of my daily free plays. The reason is simple enough. The Super Bowl has been dissected from every possible angle, and there’s just nothing particularly relevant I can add that hasn’t been said by someone already.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
One piece of advice. It’s just one game, and should be treated as such as far as your betting bankroll is concerned. The fact the Super Bowl is the biggest game does not mean it should be your biggest bet. Unless you’re over the top convinced one way or the other, play it like you’d play some nondescript basketball game. Trust me, the money doesn’t know the difference.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
So here it is. I use three key sets of metrics to come up with a number. They’ve done well for the most part in the playoffs, including winning both of the conference title games two weeks ago. My line for this game is Seahawks -1.
INSTEAD OF LEACHING OFF OTHERS WORK GO GET IT YOURSELF VIKESFAG
In other words, this is not exactly a slam dunk. But I’ve got Seattle as the better team by the smallest of margins. Add in the spread and the only way I can play is to take the Seahawks plus the points.
NFL Betting Picks
1ST TOUCHDOWN - Wes Welker (Denver) (+950)
1ST TOUCHDOWN - Luke Wilson (Seahawks) (+5000)
For these last two prop bets I've put half a unit on each - Wes Welker and Luke Wilson to score the game's first Touchdown. Wes Welker has been targeted 14 times in two playoff games by Manning and has caught 10 passes for 76 yards and a touchdown. During the regular season he was targeted 110 times with 73 catches and 10 touchdowns. I like the match up for Welker in the red zone and I will take him at +950. The second is a long shot pick on Seahawks tight end Luke Wilson. During the regular season this 5th round Canadian draft pick had 20 catches on 28 targets for 272 yards and a touchdown (average of 13.6 yards per catch). Seahawks coach had this to say about Wilson: "Luke has tremendous talent, he has speed and strength and catching ability and range and all of that". Wilson was targeted once against the 49ers, although it isn't recorded as an official target as a 15 yard penalty was called against the defender. Wilson's TD this year was a 39 yard TD catch, but I could also see them using him in the red zone. Of course at 50/1 it is a long shot, but I will put half a unit on the big athletic TE.
Mr East
TOTAL COMBINED ACCEPTED PENALTIES? UNDER 12.5 -150 It is easy to see which way the odds makers want you to bet offering sucker odds on the over at +120, and deterrent odds on the over, and rightfully so, but just a bad line all together. While both of these teams were heavily penalized this season, that has been the case in prior Super Bowl's as well, without any change in how these games are called. Once you get into the playoffs the referees swallow the whistles as much as possible. Let's take a look at all NFL games over 20+ years and what we see is the following in all regular season games: 2928 times a game resulted in more than 12 penalties 2,928 times and less than 13 penalties 3185 times. That represents 47.9% of all games having 13 or more penalties, making the odds here not worth wagering on. Now let's take a look at all playoff games over the last 12 years and we see an entirely different picture. There were 13 or more total penalties in 41 games, and 12 or less in 101 games. That means just 28.9% of all games would go over the 12.5 posted here, and we have tremendous value on the under. Looking at the last 23 Super Bowls we see similar numbers with just 6 of the 23 having had 13 or more penalties 26.1% of all games, right in line with the entire playoff picture. I like the value on the under here.
WILL THERE BE A SCORELESS QUARTER IN THE GAME? NO -280 This prop based on all Super Bowl games to date show that 15 of the 47 Super Bowl games played have seen a scoreless quarter, or 31.9% of all games. That is right within a statistical acceptance range of the -280 line offered here. However, when you look back at the early years of the Super Bowl, scoring was at a premium. The first 11 Super Bowls played saw 7 games feature a scoreless quarter, and a lot of that is based on what scoring was like in that era. The defenses ruled, and in those first 11 Super Bowls the posted total was an average of 37. What has since happened, counting those 11 games, all Super Bowl totals have averaged 46. It is certainly probable that games with a posted total in the 30s would feature a higher rate of scoreless quarters by default. looking in the most recent era where NFL scoring has risen, if you take the last 16 years, and look at totals posted from 45-49 we see that 7 of the 8 have not featured a scoreless quarter. Denver has also only had 11 scoreless quarters in their 18 games, out of 72 possibilities, or just 15.3% of all quarters, ad Seattle just 15 out of their 72, or 20.8% of the time. Looking aat the Seattle defense we see 33 of 72 scoreless quarters and Denver with 22 of 72. Denver has had only 1 game all season where they were shutout in more than 1 quarter, and Seattle just 3, so for both to match up with a 0 in the same qurter is certainly less likely than the -280 odds offered here.
David Banks
Seattle / Denver Under 48
Two weeks of hype is finally over and it will be the top offense in NFL history in the Denver Broncos taking on the top defense in the NFL this year in the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ Sunday at 6:30 ET on FOX. The Broncos set an NFL record this season for both total offense at 457.3 yards per game and points scored at 37.9 per contest. The Seahawks led the league this season in total defense surrendering just 273.6 yards per game and in scoring defense allowing an average of 14.4 points. So who usually prevails in these types of battles?
Well, this is the fifth time in Super Bowl history that the number one offense has taken on the number one defense, and the defense went 3-1 in the first four meetings. Furthermore, the one time that the number one offense won it all, it was one of the most complete teams of all time in the 1989-90 San Francisco 49ers who also boasted the league's third ranked defense. But wait there is more! Thus far, 15 teams that led the NFL in total defense have reached the Super Bowl, and those teams have gone 12-3. Now there is obviously no question that Denver's Peyton Manning is a far superior quarterback to Seattle's Russell Wilson, but keep in mind that even Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl riding the coattails of a phenomenal defense, and Wilson's mobility can also add a nice variable vs. the Denver defense. And it is the Seahawks that unquestionably have the better running game here led by Marshawn Lynch, and many a team has been carried by great defense and a power running game to a Super Bowl title.
Manning comes off of possibly his best season at the age of 37 as he set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes, passing for 5477 yards while completing 68.3 percent of his passes and averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt with only 10 interception. However, it is safe to say that Manning did not face a devastating defense like this all season. Say what you will about the boisterous Seahawk cornerback Richard Sherman, but he backs up his words on the gridiron and is fully capable of taking away half the field in this game. Also, while Manning passed for 400 yards vs. a decimated New England defense in the AFC Championship Game, surprisingly little has been made of the fact that the Broncos still scored only 26 points in that contest after scoring 24 points vs. the San Diego Chargers in the Divisional round, so it is not a given that the Broncos will put up the video-game type numbers they put up during the regular season, especially given the defense they are facing here.
The Seahawks are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall, 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games following a straight up win and 13-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
SUNDAY FEB 2/2014 NFL SUPERBOWL PROPS
SUPERBOWL PROP #1:
First score of the game is not a touchdown (+135)
SUPERBOWL PROP #2
Marshawn Lynch to score a TD (-155)
SUPERBOWL PROP #3
Longest Field Goal made (UNDER 43.5 -110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #4
First coaches challenge SEATTLE (-110)
SUPERBOWL PROP #5
Wes Welker to make OVER 5.5 receptions (-135)
Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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KNOWSHON MORENO OVER 2.5 RECEPTIONS (-130)VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Seattle secondary can cover as well as anyone in the league and that means Peyton Manning will have to check down quite often, which will benefit Moreno's production today. The Denver starting running back had three of more receptions in 12 of 16 regular season games, so he has been a popular target all season. He only had a total of three receptions in the two playoff games, but that just adds value here today.
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Detroit Red Wings at Washington CapitalsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Detroit Red WingsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that the Red Wings will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 32-15 mark for 68% winners using the money line and has made a very tidy sum of 26 units/unit wagered since 2008. It has feasted on false favorites averaging a nice +128 DOG size play. Play against home Favorites of -200 or less in the month of February against the money line (WASHINGTON) after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals. SIM projects that Washington will score two or fewer goals. In past games, Detroit is a solid 18-6 making 13.2 units this season, 65-15 making 50 units over the past three seasons and 664-87 making 532 units ince 1996 when allowing 2 or fewer goals. Washington is an imperfect 0-23 losing 28 units this season, 12-59 losing 58 units the past three seasons, and 103-470 losing 480 units since 1996 when failing to score more than two goals.
Jimmy Boyd
South Florida +14½
South Florida is a very underrated team, and this matchup sets up perfectly for the Bulls to play a close game with Cincinnati. The Bearcats are playing in a letdown situation after picking up a road win over Louisville in their last outing. They also have another tough AAC opponent on deck when they face UConn, so its likely Cincinnati will be looking ahead to that game. The last time these teams met Cincinnati won by just seven points, and I don't think a change in venue is enough to swing the outcome of this game by enough points for the Bearcats to cover this spread.
You should play on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points like South Florida when they are facing an opponent that is coming off an upset win as a road underdog. This system is 40-14 (74%) against the spread over the last five seasons. South Florida dominated the rebounding margin in the first meeting of the season. They are +3 in rebounding margin when playing on the road, and with so many factors pointing towards a letdown performance from Cincinnati, the Bulls are an easy call in this game.
Rickie Robbins
Detroit Red Wings vs. Washington Capitals
Play: Detroit Red Wings +105
The Detroit Red Wings and Washington Capitals will play one another on Sunday for the third and final time this season. The previous two meetings were decided in shootouts and each team has one apiece.
We can only hope for another great hockey matchup before the Super Bowl gets underway.
Anyway, shootouts are what Detroit has gotten used to over the last couple of weeks, as four of its last seven games have been decided in the extra period. It’s won three of its last four games. Although the Red Wings aren’t known as a great offensive team, they’ve scored 17 goals in their last five games, including four in Friday’s game against Washington. It’s the goaltending that has been shaky as of late, allowing 13 goals in the last three games.
The struggle continues the Capitals as they’ve lost nine of their last 11, including two in a row. Alex Ovechkin was fortunate enough to send Washington into overtime against Detroit at the last minute, but one goal by Patrick Eaves ended Washington’s month of January with only four wins. As it has been the story all season, the goal tending continues to be an issue for the Capitals, allowing 13 goals in the last three games.
With both teams struggling to keep the puck out of the net, it may be best to consider playing the over. Both teams haven’t been the most consistent this year and this rivalry has a long history of going back and forth.
The last four meetings between these two teams have gone over the projected total. I like Detroit to win here. They have been playing solid.
Jack Jones
Seahawks/Broncos Under 48
Seattle's defense is the best in the league. It ranks 1st in the NFL in scoring defense at 14.6 points per game, and 1st in total defense at 282.5 yards per game. This is an excellent match-up for the Seahawks' defense considering their biggest strength is stopping the pass.
The key to slowing down Peyton Manning and the Denver offense is to stop their passing attack. The Seahawks have the perfect antidote as they rank 1st in the league against the pass, allowing just 178 yards per game and 5.4 per attempt through the air.
While the Seattle defense is getting all the credit heading into this one, Denver's defense has somehow gone unnoticed. The Broncos have held each of their last four opponents to 17 points or less, and an average of 15.0 points per game during that span. Seattle has limited its last five opponents to 17 points or fewer, and an average of 11.6 points per game.
This is expected to be the coldest Super Bowl in the history of the NFL. The current forecast calls for a high temperature of 35 degrees and a low of 25 with a slight chance of snow. The previous record was held in the 1972 Super Bowl where it was only 39 degrees at Tulane Stadium in New Orleans.
The UNDER has gone 7-0 in Seattle's last seven games overall, while the UNDER is also 5-0 in Denver's last five games overall. The weather has gotten colder, and that's a big reason why both teams have been UNDER machines. The UNDER is 6-0 in Seahawks last six games versus a team with a winning record as well.
It's also worth noting that the biggest strength of the Broncos' defense is their run D, and Seattle's biggest strength offensively is its running game. So, the Broncos are equipped to stop Marshawn Lynch and company. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game, which certainly favors the defenses as well. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
Doug Upstone
William & Mary vs. James Madison
Play: James Madison
On Super Bowl Sunday, Play On home teams like James Madison when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss they scored less than 60 points and are off a close road win by three points or less. What this free play system is telling us is this matchup is close accordingly to the oddsmakers and the home team is playing with added confidence and revenge. Teams likes James Madison are 22-3 ATS since 2009 in this spot.
Chase Diamond
William & Mary vs. James Madison
Play: James Madison
This game features the 12-8 W&M at the 8-13 James Madison. Big home game for James Madison here as they have won 2 games straight and finally have some momentum going into this game. 80% of the public are backing the other side here and yet this line has stayed at a pk.
Carlos Salazar
Seattle vs. Denver
Play: Denver -123
What a great Super Bowl matchup we will have Sunday night in New Jersey. Carlos sees this game going the way of the Broncos as they just have to much fire power on offense for Seattle to handle. While the Seahawks have the top rated defense this season they haven't faced the likes Peyton Manning and his receiving core this year. Look for Peyton to stay away from Richard Sherman and the right side of the field and attack the lesser DBs on Seattle. Denver's defense is better than people know with the offense getting all the credit but they held New England to just about nothing on the ground last week and will look to contain Marshawn Lynch. Denver wins the Super Bowl and Peyton gets ring number two to further cement himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.
Jeff Scott Sports
The Denver Broncos come in at 15-3 on the yer and they got to the big game with wins over San Diego and New England. During the regular season the Broncos were the most prolific scoring offense in the history of the NFL as they put up 606 points on the year. The offense is led by Peyton Manning, who threw for 55 scores and 5,477 yards, which are both NFL single season records. Manning has the luxury of throwing to a fine set of receivers. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are only the second tandem with more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns in consecutive seasons, while Wes Welker had 87 catches and 10 TDs) and tight end Julius Thomas also added in 65 catches and 12 TDs. Very tough to just pick one weapon to stop. The Broncos aren,t just about their passing game as they run the ball as well averaging 117.1 ypg on the ground for the year. The ground game is led by Knowshon Moreno, who ran for 1038 yards and 10 TDs on the year, while also catching 60 passes for 548 yards and another 3 scores. Offense was not a problem for this team this year, but the defense did have it's struggles, allowing pedestrian 24.0 ppg on 349 ypg this season, but these numbers have improved greatly during their current four-game win streak to 15.0 ppg on 269 ypg. Denver was much more efficient in stopping the run this season (97 ypg on 3.9 ypc) than the pass (251 ypg on 6.7 ypa).
The Seahawks also come in with a 15-3 mark on the year and their path to te Super Bowl included wins over New Orleans and San Francisco. The Makeup of these teams is so different as the Broncos got here mostly on their offense, while the Seahawks are here mainly because of their top ranked defense. The Seahawks allowed just 14.4 ppg, 273.6 ypg overall and 172 ypg through the air, which were all tops in the league, plus they also ranked 8th in the league vs the run, allowing just 101.6 ypg on the ground this year. Oh yea, they also led the league in leading the league in takeaways (39) and interceptions (28), whit Richard Sherman grabbing 8 of those picks to lead the league. The Seahawk offense is built around a power running game that averages 138 ypg on 4.3 ypc this season. Marshawn Lynch is the leader of this ground attack after putting up 1,506 yards on 4.3 ypc) with 15 TDs this year. In two playoff games this year he has run for 249 yards, 5.0 ypc and 3 TDs. The Seahawks can throw when they need to and Russell Wilson has been efficient, hitting 63% of his passes for 3357 yards, with 26 TDs to just 9 INTs. Wilson also helped out the ground game with 539 yards rushing at 5.6 ypc. WRs Golden Tate (942 rec. yards, 5 TD) and Doug Baldwin (914 rec. yards, 5 TD) are Wilson's most targeted receivers, but he should have an added weapon return for this one as Percy Harvin is listed as probable for the game.
Pick: Back and forth I have been going over this one and I feel that the Under is the way to go here. I know the weather is not supposed to be bad in this one, but there should be some win which will effect the passing of Peyton. The Broncos will still be able to move the ball, but this Seahawk defense doesn't give allot of quick scores. They make you work the ball down the field and that will be just fine by the Broncos, as playing ball control is just what the Broncos did down the stretch. We know that Seattle has to throw the ball to win this one and I expect them to do just that, but they will also run allot and that will keep the clock moving, which helps keep Peyton on the sidelines. I don't expect many big plays in the passing game for Seattle as that is not really their game, but they will use a ball conterol offense that works the ball down the field a little at a time. I know all about the inter-conference Overs that have happened this year, but these teams have had 2 weeks to prepare and I feel that will show up more on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle's last 7 games have all gone Under the total and I feel that this one will follow suit with a game that will put no more than 42 points on the board.