River City Sharps
Wisc Milwaukee -2
This game is a rematch of one played back at Oakland on 1/8 where Milwaukee won 84-75. Oakland is coming off two straight wins while Milwaukee defeated Wright State last time out. A couple of numbers that really jump out while analyzing this game. First, Oakland is 1-12 away from home this season and 4-9 ATS in those contests. On the road, the Grizzlies shoot less than 40% from the field. They are scoring 67 ppg on the road while their defense is allowing 79 ppg. Rob Jeter's Milwaukee teams tend to get better as the season goes and the Panthers have struggled to score in the last five games. With that said, we like the Panthers at home as the short-priced favorite and think they hand Oakland another road loss.
Sam Martin
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Boston Celtics
This is the only game on today's NBA schedule, and after we backed Orlando as our free pick on Friday (won 113-102 as a six-point home favorite) against Milwaukee in a battle of two of the worst teams in the league, we'll fade them this afternoon. We stated in that handicapping report that we favor the home side when two of the weakest teams in the league meet up.
The reason is because those teams have a rare chance to win and tend to feed off the home crowd which also has their expectations up to an abnormally high level. That was the case for Orlando Friday, who's 51.8% shooting percentage was their highest since late December. Now it's Boston's turn to play a bit over their heads and beat up an Orlando squad that is just 3-21 straight up away from home this season.
Rocketman
Michigan @ Indiana
Play: Indiana +3
The Michigan Wolverines travel to Indiana to take on the Hoosiers on Sunday afternoon. Michigan is 16-4 SU Overall this year while Indiana comes in with a 13-8 SU overall record on the season. Indiana is 46-5 SU overall at home the past 3 years including 11-2 SU at home this year. Indiana is beating teams by an average of 78.3 to 63.2 points at home this season. Indiana is 13-1 SU and 10-3 ATS at home vs Michigan since 1997. Indiana is 11-5-1 ATS last 16 games after a SU loss. Michigan is 5-16-1 ATS last 22 meetings overall in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Indiana today!
Frank Jordan
Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -6
Boston is 15-33 heading into this game, have lost four in a row and eight of 10, but are 9-15 at home. Orlando 13-35 on the season and have dropped seven of 10 entering this game. On the road Orlando has had their issues with just three wins in their first 24 games. Orlando hasn't won in over a month and a half on the road and in their last three road games lost by a combined 39 points. These two teams played twice back in early November with the Celtics winning both, but the last meeting in December Orlando squeaked out a victory by two points. Look for Boston to get back to winning as they get fat on one of the few teams with a worse record then they have. Play Boston
Chris Jordan
KNOWSHON MORENO
5♦ Longest Rush Over 15.5 yards
Running back Knowshon Moreno will be a big part of the Broncos' attack in the Super Bowl, and if there's one thing this kid has, it's breakaway speed. He rushed for 1,038 yards this season, and in six of his 16 regular-season games, his longest rush of those contests would have eclipsed 15.5 yards.
If you total up all of his longest rushes, from all 16 regular-season games, the average longest rush from scrimmage is 14 yards. Now I know that falls short of the total we're aiming for, but the point is he has a respectably big average for what has been his longest rush in each game.
He broke one for 14 against the Chargers in the divisional round, and tore through the Patriots for a 28-yard scamper in the AFC Championship. If you add those two in the mix for his season-long average, the number goes up to 14.8 yards per longest rush. I could be dead wrong, but while everyone else is chilling in 40-degree weather, Moreno may just be warming up. Don't be surprised to see him bust a 20-yard run at some point.
RUSSELL WILSON
4♦ Over 1-1/2 Touchdown Receptions
Russell Wilson has struggled of late, if you want to call it that, but he now has one game to perform. He has one big stage in which he needs to put his best foot forward, and with receiver Percy Harvin back, the confidence level for the second-year pro quarterback goes up immediately.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see both of these guys bring this prop over the posted number - meaning Wilson to Harvin two times in the end zone. The Seahawks' speedy receiver is going to be looked at as a difference maker against the Broncos.
Forget his season stats - they're worse off than Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard. Heck, he was on the field for a total of just 40 snaps. But that doesn't mean he can't have an impact in this game. Even if he isn't on the receiving end of any scoring strikes, he brings to life a passing game at the right time, and is the perfect immunization shot for Wilson to strong-arm a few into the end zone.
PEYTON MANNING
3♦ Over 3 Touchdown Receptions
Legacy schmegacy... Peyton Manning is trying to win a Super Bowl on Sunday, not get his bust into Canton, Ohio. Heck, that bust has already been made, his gold jacket much more assured than green jacket golfer Tiger Woods will ever wear again and that'll be on the first-ballot. No, this game is about Manning and the Broncos and the way they're going to win is by him doing what he does best - throwing the football.
My next prop, and the littler ones I have opinions on further down, may seem as if I'm contradicting that when I talk about the team's running game, but when you have a proposition on arguably one of the top five all-time best quarterbacks throwing more than three touchdowns, and the price is around +180, you have to invest.
Manning threw for three or more TDs in 11 of 16 regular-season games. In those 16 games, he threw 55 touchdown strikes, an average of 3.4 per game. And in nine of those contests he threw four or more touchdowns. He threw two in each of his playoff games, and quite frankly, I don't care he's facing the No. 1 defense in the league. Manning at this big a price to throw more than a few, I'm with it.
Additional Bonus Prop Bets:
2♦ Renee Fleming WILL wear gloves - Besides the fact it's going to be cold out there, this is a polished opera singer who has performed at Buckingham Palace and is extremely distinguished. The game could be played in Miami and I think she'd wear long, elegant gloves to her elbows.
2♦ There will be SAFETY in the game - There have been only eight safeties in 47 Super Bowls. Three of them since 2009. That's over the last five years, so why wouldn't you take a chance there could be one in this game, when you have the No. 1 defense playing?
2♦ Richard Sherman OVER 3.5 Tackles/Assists - And as you read the analysis for this, can't you hear Aloe Blacc's The Man blaring through Sherman's Beats By Dre? Seriously, the number is just 3.5 for the best defensive back in football, and that's combined tackles and assists. Sherman will be flying all over the field in this game. You have to play this one at a cheap price of -115.
1♦ Knowshon Moreno will score FIRST TD - Priced anywhere between 9- to 12-1, I think you're insane to ignore the price of a key component of the Broncos' offense, knowing they'll need to turn to their grinding game once they get close to the goal line. It's certainly worth a look.
1♦ Champ Bailey WILL INTERCEPT a pass - After 15 years in the NFL, it's bittersweet for Bailey, who realistically could retire with a ring finally if the Broncos win this game. After an illustrious career, if there is one game that will bring out his absolute best, isn't this a game you can see Bailey snatching a ball mid-air? At +350, I'll take a shot.
1♦ Knowshon Moreno OVER 25.5 Receiving Yards - Denver quarterback Peyton Manning will eventually have to shorten his vertical game, and with his best target for a run-after-catch being Moreno, it's easy to see him getting this number, potentially, on one play. Moreno on a couple of screen passes in the same drive will get you this total.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the UCLA Bruins as the road favorite in Corvallis against the Beavers of Oregon State.
UCLA has won and covered their last 3 in Pacific Twelve action, and they have had no trouble dominating in this series, winning 9 of the last 10 straight up, and going 15-5-1 against the spread the last 21 times these conference rivals have met.
With the Beavers on a 4-2 straight up run their last 6, Steve Alford will not allow his Bruins to sleep on the 12-8 Beavers.
Figure on this one staying close for a spell, but the Bruins are on a 16-4-1 spread run their last 21 lined road games, so in the end expect the Uclans to pull away for the road win and cover.
UCLA the play.
2♦ UCLA
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Boston Celtics over Orlando on Super Sunday as I believe they are ripe for a win over a struggling Orlando team that has won just three times in 24 tries on the highway.
Not only that, but the home team has won seven of the last 10 meetings while Boston has covered eight of the last 10 meetings... including in Orlando wins.
The Magic come in having dropped five of their last seven, including double digit losses recently at New Orleans, Toronto and Detroit... all while scoring less than 90 points.
Boston has actually been worse recently and yet Vegas gives them the 5-point advantage? Yeah, they see this game the same way I do.
The Celtics have lost four straight and seven of the last eight, and yet I really think they are in a very good position to win this game and they get the perfect opponent for it.
Take Boston as your free play of the day.
2♦ BOSTON
Brad Wilton
Have to lay the lumber in the Queen City Sunday afternoon, as the Cincy Bearcats are rolling right now.
Cincinnati is off a very big upset win at Louisville earlier this week, and now come home to face the 11-10 Bulls of South Florida.
The Bearcats have won all 14 home games this year, and they are also 7-1 against the spread in their lined home dates this season.
South Florida sprung the home upset win over SMU last weekend, but that win was just their first in their last 5 outings.
Cincinnati has won the last pair of series meetings, and 7 of the last 9 series meetings overall. Included is a 61-54 win in Tampa in the middle of January in a game they were favored by -7 1/2 points in. True, a non-cover, but back at home on Sunday I expect Cincy to name it.
1♦ CINCINNATI
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for today is on the Oregon State Beavers, catching points from UCLA, as I see value taking the points in this game.
What appears to be a mismatch in the Pac 12 tonight, I'm not convinced the Bruins will be focused on this game like they should be and believe the home underdog is the better play in this game.
Why the UCLA Bruins can cover this number - With a well-balanced attack, the Bruins have been defying odds most of the season. And with No. 1 Arizona losing for the first time this season yesterday, the Bruins will smell blood in the water, and will want to make a statement by coming out firing in this game. They have the talent to win and cover against any team in the nation.
Why the Oregon State Beavers can cover this game - Quiet as its kept, Oregon State has its best conference record through eight games, dating back to 1999. And the Beavers won here at Gill Coliseum two years ago, 87-84, to snap a 13-game losing streak in the series. The win was the first for Craig Robinson against UCLA and gave him victories against every team in the Pac-12. Confidence for this one will be brewing.
In conclusion, why Oregon State is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - As good as the Bruins are, and as impressive as they've been, the Beavers are no slouch and are very dangerous to any team in the Pac 12, heading into this final stretch of the season. With a win over UCLA, the Beavers will improve to 13-8 overall and 5-4 in the Pac-12. It would also be the first time Oregon State is above .500 through nine Pac-12 games since that 1999 team also started 5-4 and would mark the first time Oregon State swept Southern Cal and UCLA in back-to-back visits to Corvallis since 1989-1990. The Beavers are one of the best shooting teams in the league, and they're going to keep this one close.
2♦ OREGON STATE
Sean Michaels
Scored with Saturday's comp play as Oklahoma stayed within the number at Iowa State for the cover.
Back to football today with a play on the Under (48) when Seattle and Denver meet for the NFL championship.
The Seahawks gave up around 15 points a game on the road this season, just one more than their home yield. They enter having played under in seven straight, allowing no more than 19 points in any of those games.
Denver started the season by topping the total in eight straight games. But the Broncos closed with five straight Unders, allowing no more than 17 points in their last four games.
In a game where Seattle will milk the clock with Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson keeping the ball on the ground - and out of Peyton Manning's hands - time will be working against both teams in terms of potential scoring opportunities. This could be the type of game where you see long, time-consuming drives, perhaps no more than two for each team per quarter.
I also expect Denver to run the ball frequently today with Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball softening up the Seattle front line in order to open the passing game for Manning.
2♦ DENVER-SEATTLE UNDER
Jeff Scott Sports
Total Rushing Yards By Russell Wilson -- Over 30.5 (-145)
Russell Wilson has the ability to turn a broken play into a big play with his legs and with this being the Super Bowl there is no reason for him to hold back. The Seahawk staff should have some designed runs for him and then of course when a play breaks down he will take off for sure. He has the ability to gain this total on just one play. I see at least 60 yards rushing from him in this game.
1st Pass by Russell Wilson Will Be --- A Completion (-190)
The Super Bowl is a huge stage for anyone, let alone a young QB like Russell Wilson and I expect the Seattle coaching staff to come up with an easy safe pass attempt for his first pass to get him some confidence.
Will The Broncos Score In All 4 Quarters -- No (-225)
I do expect a ball control game from both and that means limited possessions for both teams. The Seattle defense has allowed just 14.4 ppg on the year and they haven't allowed a first quarter TD in forever. I don't expect the Broncos to move up and down on this team at all, which makes the chances of them not scoring in all 4 quarters very good.
Will The Seahawks Score A Touchdown In The First Quarter -- No (-165)
I just don't see this happening. The first quarter should be a feeling out process for both teams. Russell Wilson is a young QB on the biggest stage of all and the jitters will be there. I expect a very safe and conservative game plan by the Seattle staff in the first quarter so they can ease Wilson into the game. That should keep them out of the endzone in the first quarter.
First Reception in the Game Baldwin Vs Welker -- Welker (-185)
As I said Above, I expect a conservative game plan by the Seahwaks to start the game. If a pass play is called early it will be something safe, like to a back out of the backfield. On the other side we have Peyton Manning who should not have the Jitters and i can see a crossing patter for Welker right out the gate. Welker should get the first reception here.
First TD Pass in The Game Wilson vs Manning -- Manning (-215)
This one seems like stealing. Manning had 55 TD Passes on the year while Wilson had 26. The Seahawks will play conservative early and I think the number is the Broncos first score has been a TD in 13 of their games. The percentages of the Broncos getting a TD pass are so much great here and I will run with it.
Longest Rush From Scrimmage For Knowshon Moreno -- Under 15.5 Yards (-140)
This one is rather simple. The Seattle run defense is very tough and I just can't see Moreno going on a long jaunt vs them. Knowshon averaged 4.3 ypc on the year and isn't really known for the big run, while Seattle doesn't give up many big plays on the ground. Look for him to have an 8 or 9 yard run at best in this one.
Shortest Punt For Britton Colquitt -- Over 33.5 Yards (-115)
Colquitt may be the most rested player in the game after having very few punts in his last 2 games. Colquitt averaged 44.5 yards per punt this year and some may say that is because of punting in Mile High Stadium, but he also averaged 44.1 yards per punt on the road. I don't see him having a bad punt in this one. He is too consistent.
Total Receiving Yards Demaryius Thomas -- Under 75.5 Yards (-125)
Peyton Manning has too many weapons at his disposal to think that Thomas will have a run away game. Also the Bronco passing game will be going up against the top ranked pass defense in the league. Manning will spread the wealth and Thomas will not get nearly 80 yards receiving.
Total Completions By Peyton Manning -- Under 26.5 (-115)
Yes Peyton will look to throw the ball allot, but this is the top rated pass defense in the league that he will be facing. Peyton did average 28.3 completions per game this year, but Seattle allowed teams to complete just 19.3 passes per game. Denver will also need to run a bit more to loosen up that Seattle pass defense and that will take away some passing attempts by Peyton.
EZWINNERS
Seattle Seahawks +2
This is the fifth time that the NFL's #1 ranked offense will face off against the NFL's #1 ranked defense and the top defense has won three out of those four match ups and I like that trend to continue in this game. Peyton Manning and the Broncos have had a great season and Manning was spectacular in breaking Tom Brady's single season touchdown record, but lets not forget that Manning has lost more big games than he has won in his career. Seattle's defense is legit. The Seahawks should be able to do what nobody has done so far in the playoffs and that is to get pressure on Manning in the pocket. Manning has not been sacked so far in the post season, but I expect Seattle to get pressure on him and remind everyone of what a statue he is in the pocket. Richard Sherman's comments about Manning throwing ducks has a lot of merit. The arm strength is not what it used to be for Manning, but its not much of a factor when you have all day to throw. Put pressure on him and those ducks aren't as accurate and against one of the best secondary's in the league they will become turnovers. The Colts used a similar defensive game plan during the regular season and made Manning and company look very bad with defensive players that are less skilled than the unit that Seattle puts on the field. On the other side of the ball, Denver has been pretty good against the run, but slowing down Marshawn Lynch will be a challenge. I also think Denver will struggle with the scrambling ability of Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson who can make big plays with his arm and legs. Percy Harvin will also be a huge x factor for the Seattle offense. Harvin has been injured most of the season, but in the little time he did play in the playoff game against the Saints he made an impact and gave the defense something else to worry about. When I was in Vegas last year for the Ravens Super Bowl win shortly after the game I placed a future on Seattle at 12 to 1 to win this years Super Bowl. Usually I'm a big fan of hedging or trying to middle my bets, but that won't be the case here. Take the points.
Marty Otto
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over
This line is all over the board offshore and I’m sure it is in Vegas as well. The best number I’ve seen offshore is 40.5 -115 at Heritage. I’ve also seen as high as 43.5 +100 at Bookmaker. Try to get the best number you can, you never know when that yard or half a yard will matter.
Doug Baldwin doesn’t get much in the way of national media attention and he is far from a Pro Bowl caliber receiver. But he might just be Russell Wilson’s favorite target right now and I think that gives us an edge with this prop.
Baldwin has big play ability which can go a long way to helping us cash this bet. He posted a catch of over 20 yards in 13 games this year and had 10 games where he had more than 40 receiving yards. That includes his season high 106 yard effort against a tough 49ers defense in the NFC Championship. This week he takes a step down in competition against Football Outsiders’ 21st ranked pass defense.
Percy Harvin’s return is the big story and I’m sure Seattle will try to get him involved. But I don’t think that fact is lost on the Broncos. I suspect Denver will be more worried about shutting down Harvin than the less hyped Baldwin which could well benefit us.
Tony Bucca
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 & Under 48
Weather is good, no temperature or wind problems so this should be a slam dunk for Manning and Denver right? That's the public side. The Super Bowl is the most publicly bet game in the year. Almost 85% of the betting slips are made from people who don't ordinarily lay a bet down, or never do. Right now that's sitting at 62% for Denver. Line opened as a PK or in some places Seattle -1. There have been 5 instances in history where the #1 offense went up against the #1 defense and defense won 4 of those. I have always come from the side of defense. It happens all the time in college football and defense wins there too. I will not stray from my instincts. Seattle will win by 3 or so and it'll go under the posted total.