Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 3rd

DUNKEL INDEX

NBA

LA Clippers at Boston
The Clippers look to take advantage of a Boston team that is coming off a 97-84 win over Orlando and is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-1)

Game 801-802: LA Clippers at Boston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 121.067; Boston 117.559
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-1); Under

Game 803-804: LA Lakers at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 119.293; Detroit 118.674
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 204
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 805-806: Miami at Toronto (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.324; Toronto 118.385
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 6; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-4 1/2); Under

NCAAB

Oregon State at Stanford
The Beavers look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. Oregon State is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinal favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+10)

Game 807-808: Providence at Villanova (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 60.602; Villanova 64.428
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 4
Vegas Line: Villanova by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (+6 1/2)

Game 809-810: Iowa at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 68.347; Minnesota 74.631
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 9 1/2; 138
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+9 1/2); Over

Game 811-812: Marquette at Louisville (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 67.115; Louisville 79.712
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 12 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Louisville by 10 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-10 1/2); Under

Game 813-814: South Florida at Connecticut (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.805; Connecticut 66.474
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+9 1/2)

Game 815-816: Virginia at Georgia Tech (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 66.190; Georgia Tech 65.824
Dunkel Line: Even; 117
Vegas Line: Virginia by 2; 112
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+2); Over

Game 817-818: Oregon State at Stanford (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 59.535; Stanford 64.953
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Stanford by 10
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+10)

Game 819-820: Wisconsin at Illinois (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 67.778; Illinois 68.750
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 1; 130
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+1 1/2); Over

Game 821-822: Rider at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 48.925; Marist 47.039
Dunkel Line: Rider by 2
Vegas Line: Rider by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+3 1/2)

Game 823-824: St. Peter's at Manhattan (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 43.191; Manhattan 54.503
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 8
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-8)

Otto SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Frank Gore Rushing AttemptsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 19.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Frank Gore is a workhorse for the 49ers, plain and simple. Their preferred method of attack is to pound the football on the ground and San Francisco has arguably the best offensive line in NFL so that method makes perfect sense. Based on season long numbers this prop might seem like it’s priced high at first glance but don’t let those season long numbers cloud your view.
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Gore didn’t have the heaviest workload during the regular season as head coach Jim Harbaugh routinely spelled him with Kendall Hunter. But Hunter went down with a knee injury and hasn’t played since Week 12. Let’s look at Gore’s workload pre and post Hunter injury…
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While in the rotation with Hunter in Weeks 1 through 12 Gore had just two 20 carry games. Since Hunter went down Gore had three 20 carry games in the final five weeks of the regular season and two 20 carry games so far here in the playoffs. That’s five 20 or more carry games in the last seven weeks! We can put an asterisk next to one of the games during this seven week run where Gore failed to get 20 carries as San Francisco was forced to abandon the run in a blowout loss at Seattle.
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Baltimore ranked 26th in Football Outsiders’ rushing defense and they’ve given up at least 100 yards in all three of their playoff games. Not even the return of Ray Lewis has helped their rush defense so Gore should have plenty of success and get plenty of carries while the ground-and-pound clicks. And I expect San Francisco to win this game so he’ll see plenty of late game “run out the clock” type carries. Play this one over.
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Ray Lewis solo tackles + special teams solo tackles + assisted tackles
Recommendation: Over 10.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s important to note in this bet that LVH does not count sacks toward the total. You should check to see whether or not they count if you play it at another shop. Having said that, Lewis doesn’t get many sacks anyway (just one this season to date) so it shouldn’t be a factor one way or another.
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Lewis played just six regular season games thanks to a serious triceps injury but he was very productive in those six games. In his final regular season appearance he racked up a combined 14 solo and assisted tackles. In his three-game stint since coming back from injury here in the playoffs he’s racked up a combined 34 solo and assisted tackles and has obliterated the 10.5 number we see here in all three games. And San Francisco, with their ground and pound between the tackles style running, should play right into our hands with this bet and give Lewis plenty of opportunities to rack up stops.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore at San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There's almost always value in betting the Under in the Super Bowl as the big game receives a ton of action from non-regular sports bettors, who typically play the Over. It makes sense, as it's "easier" to root for the offense than the defense. This year is no exception, with a high opening number of 49 points (although it has been bet down a bit already), and we'll look for the defenses to be in control for most of this game. Both teams feature a heavy running game and we don't have the big name quarterbacks this year along the likes of Manning, Brady, Rogers, or Brees. More running plays means the clock keeps moving, and if the running games are successful then drives of even 30 or 40 yards can take a good 5-6 minutes off the clock without resulting in any points. Both defenses only give up 39 ppg a game combined on the season - well below this posted number - and neither team has what we would consider to be an "explosive" offense. It might be easier to root for the offenses, but it's smarter to back the defenses.

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Total Interceptions by Both TeamsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 1.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore has faced a trio of strong quarterbacks and passing attacks in the playoffs thus far. Despite allowing a rather hefty 286.7 passing yards per game this postseason, the Ravens have been a successful ball hawking secondary. Versus Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, Baltimore has come up with five interceptions mostly due to physical coverage and an active defensive line. Batted balls by Ravens defensive linemen frustrated the 6-5 Brady in the AFC Championship including a key fourth quarter interception. The active, arms up approach of Baltimore’s defensive line has now seen three straight above average sized quarterbacks and should be able to create a couple of opportunities against 6-6 Colin Kaepernick who doesn’t have an extremely high release point. Ravens cornerbacks Corey Graham and Cary Williams along with veteran free safety Ed Reed are all capable of capitalizing on whatever chances are created.
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For San Francisco it has been a different story in the playoffs as they’ve yet to come up with an interception. However, they had more difficult matchups against the receiving arsenals of Green Bay and Atlanta. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco has not been picked off in his 96 playoff pass attempts and his talented receiving corps group is very confident right now. However, Denver was the only opponent which posed a consistent pass pressure threat along with a solid secondary. In that game, Flacco was under duress multiple times and he avoided every landmine. Expect Jim Harbaugh to have a game plan which includes resurrecting the 49ers pass rush allowing the defense to have a couple of shots at interceptions. Although they are relatively unflappable, this setting could cause each quarterback to have an errant throw or two especially early on. These passing attacks are good enough to have strong performances here but the fundamentals and situation suggest more than one interception will occur.
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Anquan Boldin Total ReceptionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 4.5FFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In a game of this magnitude, it makes perfect sense to side with players who exude physical and mental toughness. Two years ago I played a Hines Ward receiving yards prop over the total because there was value in the number due to the perception that he was an aging and fading star. Ward’s overall toughness and big game prowess came through (7 catches, 78 yards) and the ticket was easily cashed. This year presents a similar situation except Anquan Boldin is not viewed as aging. Still, there looks to be plenty of value in his total receptions prop. After a slow start in the first couple games of the season, Boldin has been targeted by Joe Flacco seven times or more in 12 of the team’s last 16 games including 10+ five times. More importantly, here in the playoffs Boldin has become even more of a target with Flacco tossing his way an average of nine times per game resulting in 5.3 receptions per contest. Expect the numbers to grow even higher on Sunday as San Francisco will be extremely aware of Torrey Smith’s ability to hurt them deep. Boldin is likely to get one-on-one opportunities with San Francisco’s corners and even slot chances against nickel defense. These are all favorable for the physical and sure handed Boldin who came through with eight receptions for 84 yards in the 2009 Super Bowl versus a hard-nosed Pittsburgh secondary. There are a host of reasons to like this play so I have no problem laying the -120 juice with over 4.5 catches.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: First Quarter UNDER 10FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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During the 2012-13 regular season, an average of 9.4 points per game where scored in the first quarter. In this game we have two good offenses and two good defenses. Baltimore games averaged 10.0 first quarter points while San Francisco games averaged just 7.9 per game. Average the two and we get 9.0 points which is over a full point and a half lower than this posted total. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.3 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring! Twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Last year was one of the UNDERs as 9 points were scored. The last five years have seen an average of 7.8 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9). The quarterbacks in those games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. As the magnitude of this game seems grows each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the 1st quarter has gone UNDER the total much more than not. Five years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Three years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The 1st quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Last year the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. With twelve of the last fourteen Super Bowls producing 10 or fewer points in the first quarter, the UNDER is the play here.

Ian CameronFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Joe Flacco Pass AttemptsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 33.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My thinking behind this prop is fairly straightforward. I don’t see the Ravens being able to get their running game going against the staunch 49ers defensive front. Baltimore running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were held in check by the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship with just 100 rushing yards. New England had the 9th ranked run defense in the NFL this season. San Francisco has the 4th ranked run defense allowing a paltry 94.2 yards per game. I don’t anticipate seeing a lot of success running the football for Baltimore once again this week and that will force Joe Flacco into passing situations early and often if the Ravens are going to be able to move the football and put points on the board.
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Flacco’s pass attempts skyrocketed upward in Baltimore’s last two playoff games. He threw the football 34 times against Denver despite the Ravens run game working well that day and he threw the football 36 times against New England. Part of it was because the run game didn’t work against the Patriots but also because Flacco is playing his best football of the season and maybe of his career entering Sunday’s game (8 TDs, 0 INTs, 114.7 QB rating during postseason).
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Oddsmakers are telling us with San Francisco being favored that Baltimore is expected to be trailing for at least a decent portion of this game. Most teams that are trailing in the Super Bowl don’t play conservative and run the football, they let it all hang out because there is no tomorrow and I expect the Ravens to be a pass heavy team once again this week just like they were in their two previous playoff wins.
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Keep in mind that Atlanta’s Matt Ryan had 42 pass attempts in the NFC Championship and Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers had 39 pass attempts in the Divisional Round –both due to a similar lack of success running the ball against the 49ers along with edges both teams found in the passing game. Obviously both of those efforts eclipsed Flacco’s current number of 33.5 and with weather conditions being a non-factor in the Superdome I’m confident we’ll see this one go over.
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Michael Crabtree Total ReceptionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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A lot of times we talk about betting the “hot team” in the NFL playoffs. Well I guess you can say that I’m betting the “hot wide receiver” here with this prop recommendation as I’m playing Michael Crabtree over six total receptions at a reasonable. Slowly but steadily Crabtree has become a bigger go-to target in the passing game for Colin Kaepernick. Crabtree has had six or more catches in six of San Francisco’s last seven games. The one game where he didn’t was a rain soaked affair in Seattle when the 49ers were caught in the mother of all miserable travel spots having played in New England the week before. Crabtree caught nine passes and was targeted 11 times by Kaepernick in the Divisional Playoff round against Green Bay. He caught six passes and was targeted seven times in the NFC Championship against Atlanta. He should have an impact on this game against a Baltimore secondary that was spotty in their pass coverage throughout the season and ranked just 17th in the NFL in pass defense allowing over 220 passing yards per game. This is one matchup where the absence of Lardarius Webb at cornerback for Baltimore could be felt in a big way.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Total Rushing Yards by Bernard Pierce
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Over 33.5 (-115)
Under 33.5 (-115)
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Pick: Over 33.5 (-115)
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Ray Rice is the lead back for the Ravens but Peirce is a quality backup that has done exceptionally well in the latter part of the season. After gaining more than 34 yards only once in his first 12 games, he has surpassed 34 yards in five of his last seven games while averaging 64.9 ypg over that stretch. His 6.0 ypc average is what is most appealing for this prop as he gets big chunks at a time.
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Team to make longest field goal
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Baltimore (-125)
San Francisco (-105)
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Pick: Baltimore (-125)
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Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has missed only three field goals all season and is a perfect 4-4 from beyond 50 yards. Conversely, David Akers for San Francisco has not attempted a field goal over 40 yards in the playoffs where he was just 9-19 during the regular season. Not only does Baltimore have the better chance of making a long one, but the 49ers won't even be taking a chance on attempting anything long.
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First score of the game will be
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Touchdown (-150)
Field goal/safety (+120)
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Pick: Field goal/safety (+120)
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Nine of the last 14 Super Bowls have seen a field goal or a safety lead off the scoring and at favorable odds here, I like that to continue. These are two strong offensive teams but the Super Bowl will tighten up even the best of them. Over these last 14 Super Bowls, there have been an average of only 5.6 ppg scored in the first quarter, so touchdowns have been rare.
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Will there be a lead change in the second half?
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Yes (+170)
No (-210)
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Pick: Yes (+170)
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Going along with the team scoring first concept, a close game throughout means lead changes and that means in the second half as well. There were lead changes in the second half in both championship games and, while both defenses pitched a shutout in the second half, we likely will not be seeing that again here. As long as we don't get the fluke early blowout by one team, we could see multiple lead changes.

Steve MerrilFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Highest scoring half
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First half (-115)
Second half (-105)
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Pick: Second half (-105)
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Over the past decade, the first quarter of the Super Bowl has been low scoring and the fourth quarter has been high scoring, which gives this prop value. The Ravens rank seventh with an average of 13.1 points scored in the second half while the 49ers rank fourth with an average of 14.7 points scored in the second half. In the Playoffs, Baltimore averaged 16.3 points in the second half while the 49ers averaged 17.5 in the final two quarters.
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Total Pass Completions
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Over 38.5 (-125)
Under 38.5 (-105)
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Pick: Under 38.5 (-105)
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Joe Flacco and Colin Kaepernick completed a total of 84 passes in five playoff games. For the season, Flacco (19.4) and Kaepernick (16.4) completed an average of 35.8 passes per game. Their combined pass attempts prop equals 61 which means they need to complete 64 percent of their passes for this prop to cash. With two strong secondaries, we don’t expect that to happen.
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Jacoby Jones (Ravens) Receptions
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Over 1.5 (-115)
Under 1.5 (-115)
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Pick: Over 1.5 -115
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San Francisco will emphasize their coverage on Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. The 49ers also have a very good covering linebacker in NaVorro Bowman who will be on Dennis Pitta. That leaves Jacoby Jones as the forgotten receiver. He has been targeted 10 times in Baltimore’s three playoff games - 22 times in the six games since Jim Caldwell started calling plays. Jones will be left open a lot so two easy pitch and catches by him and Flacco make this prop a winner.

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Longest Touchdown Scored
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Over 46.5 yards (-110)
Under 46.5 yards (-129)
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Pick: Over 46.5 yards (-110)
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Both the Ravens and 49ers have big play potential, not only on offense, but on defense and special teams as well. I like the matchup of Baltimore's down field passing attack against an aggressive 49ers secondary in particular. Joe Flacco won't hesitate to take his shots with Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin. On the other side, we've already seen Colin Kaepernick run for a 56-yard touchdown in these playoffs. Both teams feature home-run hitters out of the backfield as well, and I'm not talking about Ray Rice and Frank Gore. Don't be surprised if we see a long touchdown run from either Bernard Pierce or LaMichael James in this game.
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Team that scores first wins game
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Yes (-175)
No (+135)
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Pick: No (+135)
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Both the Ravens and 49ers are comfortable playing from behind. In fact, that's when they've played some of their best football in these playoffs. The Ravens rallied back from four deficits in Denver. They gave up the game's opening score and trailed by six points at halftime in New England. San Francisco fell behind 7-0 against Green Bay and needed to fight back from a 17-0 hole in Atlanta. No surprise if an early score serves to galvanize the opposition in New Orleans.

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Anquan Boldin Total Receiving YardsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 70.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There are so many different ways to attack the Super Bowl props and with over 300 available, you should come ready to invest your money in value plays and also back the props that favor the way you believe the flow of the game will be. For example; if you envision the game to be a low scoring hard hitting contest, then it makes sense to use props that have running backs Ray Rice, Frank Gore and bet them over in total rushing attempts and yards, also field goals over. Conversely, if you like the game to be loose and high scoring, wager on over touchdown props, quarterbacks yardage over, wide receivers/tight-ends receptions and yardage over.
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Anquan Boldin is the go-to wide receiver for Baltimore. It seems Joe Flacco looks for him on every third down pass play and pressure situations. He played through hamstring injuries and ankle injuries for most of the regular season but in the playoffs he has been on fire and has come down with many amazing catches. Versus the Patriots, Boldin had 60 yards and two touchdowns, against the Broncos 11 receptions and 71 yards, and again on the road vs. the Colts indoors on field turf much like the Superdome, he had 145 yards.
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The upside for this yardage prop is on the over not the under. It is much more likely that Boldin will get to 100 yards than him being shut down by the weak 49ers’ secondary that gave up 182 yards to Atlanta's Julio Jones, 100 yards to Roddy White, and another 78 yards to tight end Tony Gonzalez in the NFC Championship game – not to mention that Matt Ryan threw for 396 yards on San Francisco.
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The line on this prop opened 66.5 and is now 70.5 in some sportsbooks. Be sure to shop around and get the lowest number to beat without laying additional vigorish.

Teddy CoversFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Frank Gore Rushing Yards vs. Louisville Points (vs. Marquette on Sunday)
Recommendation: Gore +3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Frank Gore is the heart and the soul of the 49ers offense. We can expect the Ravens defense to concentrate on slowing Colin Kaepernick’s big play ability on the read-option, much like Atlanta did in the NFC Championship Game. The end result of that defensive effort for Gore was a 21 carry, 90-yard effort on the heels of his 23 carry, 119-yard effort against the Packers the previous week. If San Fran has a second half lead, there’s going to be a steady stream of Gore rushing yards.
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Will There Be Three Consecutive Scores for Either Team?
Recommendation: Yes (-170 @ LVH)FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers-Falcons NFC Championship Game was a real nail-biter that came down to the final possession; a tight, thrilling contest. But if you bet the “Yes” on this prop in that ballgame, you cashed a winning bet by the first play of the second quarter. Football is a game of momentum swings; even in competitively lined contests like this one. On a stage like the Super Bowl, those momentum swings are magnified. That’s why this prop has cashed 24 times in the last 31 Super Bowls, including three of the last four years – all tight, competitive Super Bowls. And if this Super Bowl turns out to be not so tight and competitive, this prop will cash with ease.

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will a Field Goal be Scored in the 1st Quarter?
YES -115
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will there be More Points Scored in which half
First Half +110
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Longest Touchdown Scored in the Game (Yardage)
Under 46.5 Yards -125
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to Score the Longest Touchdown in the Game
49ers -120
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will there be a Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game?
Yes +155
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Over 44.5 -130
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make the Longest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Ravens -145
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make the Shortest Successful Field Goal in the Game
Ravens -105
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Team to make most successful 3 point Field Goals in the game?
Ravens -105
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Distance of first punt in the Game
Under 48.5 -115
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will either team successfully convert a 4th down attempt?
Yes -210
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SUPER BOWL XLVII - Will a Roughing the Passer penalty be called in the game?
Yes -105
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(BAL @ SF) - Total Interceptions - Joe Flacco (BAL)
Over 1/2 INT -160
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(BAL @ SF) - Total Interceptions - Colin Kaepernick (SF)
Over 1/2 -140
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(BAL @ SF) - Will Colin Kaepernick (SF) score a Rushing TD in the game?
Yes +115
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(BAL @ SF) - Player to score the first Baltimore TD in the game
Field (any player other than listed ones) 5/1 odds
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SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - How long will the post game handshake/hug last between Jim & John Harbaugh?
Under 7 seconds -120
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SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - If Ray Lewis is interviewed on TV after the game on the field or in the locker room how many times will he mention "God/Lord"
Over 3 -120
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SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - What will the TV Rating be for the Super Bowl?
Under 46 -105
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SUPER BOWL XLVII SPECIALS - What will be the highest tweet per second during the Super Bowl?
Under 17,000 -105

Prop Picks - 49ers
By CarbonSports

Today I’m looking at the various props offered regarding the 49ers performance in the big game on Sunday. Like yesterday’s piece on Baltimore, there are some good numbers out there with the 49ers player props.

Here are a couple that have got my attention.

Aldon Smith – Total solo + assisted tackles (sacks don’t count): Over 3.5 (-150) vs. Under 3.5 (+120)

After all the accolades Smith got during the season when he was on pace to break the single-season sack record, he seems to have disappeared in the playoffs. In the two playoff games Smith has a grand total of 3 tackles and 0 sacks. Green Bay and Atlanta found ways to neutralize his pass-rushing ability and with Justin Smith nowhere near 100%, offensive lines can key on Smith and take him out of the game.

Baltimore should be able to accomplish this as well as any help they do bring against San Francisco’s defense ends will clearly be on Aldon’s side. Even if he does break free for a sack or two they won’t count towards this bet so you’ve really got to hope he catches Ray Rice running or on screen passes an awful lot.
I just don’t see it happening. If you take away his sacks, he only got to 4 or more tackles five times this season. Even then, most of those games he finished with only 4, so it’s not like he is a dominating force if you take away his pass-rushing ability.

Take the +120 on the under.

Colin Kaepernick – Total completions: Over 17.5 (+100) vs. Under 17.5 (-120)

Kaepernick has been the talk of the 49ers ever since he became the starter and it has been his playmaking ability that got San Francisco to this point. But he is still refining his passing game and that only comes with time.

Since he became the full-time starter he has only topped 17.5 completions three times. One of those was their Week 16 (42-13) blowout loss in Seattle when San Fran got behind early on and had to basically abandon their running game. Kaepernick attempted 36 passes that day (his most all season) and completed 19 of them.

Another one of those games was the 16-13 OT loss to the Rams where he went 21-for-32 passing. Kaepernick had still gone over 17.5 without the extra frame – he completed 3 passes in OT – but it was still right on the number with 18. Defensively, the Rams are quite similar to Baltimore in terms of bringing pressure and being physical with wide receivers making getting over this number tough.

Even in this stadium against the sieve-like New Orleans pass defense, Kaepernick only went 16-25 passing in the 31-21 win. In the playoffs he has finished with 17 and 16 completions respectively, but Green Bay and Atlanta’s defenses aren’t quite on the level that this Baltimore team is.

Take under 17.5

Prop Picks - Ravens
By CarbonSports

Today, I’m looking at specific prop bets regarding the Ravens and have found a few very attractive ones.

Anquan Boldin total receptions: Over 4.5 (-150) or Under 4.5 (+120)

This prop is heavily juiced to the over and for good reason. Boldin has been targeted at least 7 times in each playoff game thus far and with his ability to be that clutch possession-type receiver, he will be instrumental in the Ravens quest for a championship. He has caught at least 5 passes in each playoff game so far and will likely reach that number in the Super Bowl.

I say that because San Francisco has got to be weary of the speed demons WR Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith stretching the field and taking the cap off the defense. They’ve seen plenty of film of Flacco airing out deep to one of those guys and having plenty of success doing it. The 49ers will aim to take that away from the Ravens and keep everything in front of them. Baltimore will continue to try and stretch the field and when they do, that leaves plenty of room for Boldin to operate in the 5-to-20-yard range and move the chains.

The juice is a bit steep, but Boldin has been on the big stage before (with Arizona) and that night he caught 8 passes for 84 yards as teammates Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald were the deep threats that day. Baltimore will use him in a similar fashion.

Take the over.

Total rushing yards for Baltimore: Over 104.5 (-115) or Under 104.5 (-115)

One of Baltimore’s best players is RB Ray Rice, but he’ll have a tough time running the ball against this 49ers defense. During the regular season, San Francisco was 4th in the league in rushing yards against at 94.2 per game. In their two playoff games they have bettered that number to 92.5/game and their worst effort was exactly 104 yards allowed to Green Bay. A few of those runs came in garbage time though as San Fran was more concerned with not letting anything go over their head for big plays. Either way, both of their games this postseason have been under this number and when these two teams met a year ago, Baltimore still only ran for 92 yards total. For this to have any chance of going “over,” someone on Baltimore will have to break a long one and I don’t see it happening.

In last year’s game the longest rush anyone on Baltimore had was 12 yards and that was with Ricky Williams. In the NFC Championship, the longest rush the 49ers allowed was 12 yards as well and vs. Green Bay they gave up a long rush of 19. Unless there are a handful of runs like that by Baltimore, this prop has little chance to eclipse this number.

Take the under.