Super Bowl XLVII Props
By CarbonSports
Super Bowl week is here and as the players arrive in New Orleans and get ready for media day, bettors everywhere are pouring over the massive Super Bowl prop cards. This year is no different and it can be exhausting to go through and find good investments. I'll touch on a few of the props I like in the next few days, starting with the generic "game" ones.
What will the coin toss be (Heads/Tails)? And which team will win the Coin Toss (Baltimore/SF)?
Heads (-105) vs. Tails (-105) and Baltimore (-105) vs. San Francisco (-105)
I'm not a big fan of betting the heads/tails option because it doesn't make much sense to cost yourself 5 cents on the dollar to bet on something you can do with a buddy in the comfort of your own living room. Because it's the Super Bowl though, bettors love to make this wager and I can tell you that in the past four years it's landed on "heads" and that may be significant. I say that because while there have been many streaks by one side of the coin in Super Bowl history, not once have we seen the same result five years in a row, so it might be "tails" time.
Which team will win the coin toss is a different story though. Before the Patriots (AFC) won the toss last year, the NFC was on a 14-0 run winning the toss. That was only the 15th time the AFC has won the coin toss in the history of the Super Bowl and as a franchise the 49ers are 4-1. Baltimore will have a chance to lower San Fran's winning percentage by picking their option as the "road" team. With the coin toss won or lost this year, Baltimore only received the ball to start the game once, so look for them to defer if they do win it.
Longest FG made in the game: Over 44.5 (-115) or Under 44.5 (-115)
A good rule of thumb when trying to figure out how long FG's will be, always add 17 yards to the line of scrimmage. Kickers typically line up 7 yards behind the line and the posts are 10 yards deep in the end zone, so for this one to go over a drive would have to stall out at the 28-yard line or further.
San Francisco was tied for 1st in the NFL this year with 2.4 FG attempts per game and although Baltimore was 23rd (1.8), these are two defenses that will really clamp down on you. San Francisco and Baltimore take pride in forcing teams to attempt a FG after it looked like a TD was coming. Neither team has attempted many FG's so far in the postseason and that hurts the "over's" chances here but other than Denver, neither team has really faced against a top quality defense that knows how to toughen up in their own zone. With perfect conditions inside the dome and this contest expected to be tight and points at a premium, you've got to expect one of these kickers to knock in one 45 yards or more.
Take the over.
Number of different players to have a pass attempt: Over 2.5 (+240) vs. Under 2.5 (-320)
This is always a fun Super Bowl prop to look at because you are trying to gameplan along with the coaches and figuring out if some sort of trick play should be in the works. Back in 2005 we saw WR Antwaan Randel-El connect on a TD pass to Hines Ward in the Super Bowl, and trick plays have been known to pop up in the Super Bowl over the years. RB Frank Gore has never attempted a pass in his career, but Ray Rice has, twice, so when you add in that element, that +240 is quite attractive.
Finally, we have the Kaepernick/Alex Smith scenario here as well. Before Smith went down with a concussion in Week 10 and Kaepernick was the starter for good, these two shuttled in and out of offensive series all the time for the 49ers. Putting in Alex Smith for a few reps is something you cannot put past Jim Harbaugh and I think he lets Smith see the field at least once. He knows the Ravens have spent their time figuring out every which way to stop Kaepernick and could've completely forgotten about Smith. Green Bay "forgot" about the "pistol" formation San Francisco has relied heavily on in these playoffs after they didn't run it for the final few weeks. The Packers were shocked, unprepared, and torched by the pistol. Who says Jim Harbaugh doesn't try that again with Alex Smith in there a few times? Smith doesn't have to do well for this bet, simply attempt a pass.
Whether or not Smith comes into this game doesn't change the fact that there are too many variables not to take the value on over 2.5 (+240) here. Trick plays, injuries, and Alex Smith are all legitimate options and with it being brother vs. brother here, chances are these two know each other so well that they'll each have a few tricks up their sleeve too.
Take the over.
POINTWISE
SAN FRANCISCO (NT) (13-4-1) VS BALTIMORE (AT) (13-6)
SUPERDOME - NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - ARTIFICIAL TURF
CURRENT LINE: SAN FRANCISCO BY 3½ - OVER/UNDER LINE: 47½
SUPER BOWL FACTS (In No Particular Order of Importance) In the first 33 Super Bowls, the spread had come into play only 5 times, but the last 13 have seen 4 such instances: Tennessee (+7) losing 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV; Carolina (+7) losing 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVII, Philadelphia (+7) losing 24- 21 in Super Bowl XXXIX, & Arizona (+7) losing 27-23 in Super Bowl XLIII. The underdog has gone 10-5-2 ATS in the last 17 Super Bowls. The Ravens & Niners have played just 2 common opponents, a total of 5 games. Baltimore has gone 3-0 SU, and 2-1 ATS, while SanFrancisco has gone 1-1, both SU and ATS. In those games, the Ravens held edges of 11.7 ppg SU, & 14.3 ppg ATS, while the Niners had deficits of 8.0 ppg SU, & 9.0 ppg ATS. The Ravens have held 9 foes below 17 pts, & the Niners have held 8 foes below 17 pts, & 5 foes to a TD or less. Offensively, Baltimore ranks 16th in total "O", & 10th in scoring, while SanFran ranks 11th in total "O", & 11th in scoring.
Defensively, the Niners rank 3rd in total "D", & 2nd in pts allowed, while the Ravens rank 17th in total "D", & 12th in pts allowed. Baltimore ranks in the Top 10 in 6 offensive categories, & in the Top 5 in just one, while SanFran ranks in the top 10 in 9 offensive categories, & in the Top 5 in six. The Ravens rank in the Top 10 in 4 defensive columns, & in the Top 5 in none, while the Niners rank in the Top 10 in 12 defensive columns, & in the Top 4 in eleven. Ravens selected to Pro Bowl: RB Rice, FB Leach, OG Yanda, DT Ngata, DB Reed, & KR Jones. Niners selected to Pro Bowl: RB Gore, OT Staley, OG Iupati, DT Smith, LB Smith, LB Bowman, LB Willis, DB Whitner, DB Goldson.
This is just the 10th start for Kaepernick, 3rd fewest by a starting Super Bowl QB (Giants' Hostetler in '90, & Rams' Ferragamo in '79). The Niners' win over the Falcons marked their first playoff road win since 1988. The Ravens are 13-7 all-time in the playoffs, with their .650 pct the best in NFL history.
SanFran's overcoming of a 17-pt deficit was the 3rd largest in playoff history, the 2nd largest in a title game (18, by the Colts over the Pats in '06), & the largest in an NFL title game (trailed 24-7 with 8:09 left in 2nd). Flacco is the only QB to win a playoff game in each of his first 5 seasons, & his 6 road wins are the most in playoff history. Brady was an astounding 67-0 SU at home when leading at the half, before losing to the Ravens (led 13-7). This marks the 1st time since '97 that both road teams won their division Title Games, & just the 3rd time since the 1970 merger of the NFL & AFL. The Ravens (21-0) & Niners (14-0), combined for a 35-0 2nd half scoring edge in their title games. Flacco has thrown 8 TDs & no INTs in his 93 playoff aerials this year. This marks the 9th straight year that the team with the best record in the NFL hasn't won the Super Bowl. Niners are the 11th different NFC team the reach the Super Bowl in the last 12 years. SanFran's longest winning streak all season was just 2 games, before its current 3-game run.
Baltimore's 9 playoff road wins ties Dallas for the 2nd most, 1 less than GreenBay. Kaepernick is 7-2 as a starter, & his 181 RYs (11.3 ypr) vs the Packers, set an all-time rushing record for a QB in any game in the NFL's 93-yd history. He had just 2 carries for 21 yds vs the Falcons (10.5 ypr). Baltimore is only the 2nd team to beat both Peyton Manning & Tom Brady in the same post-season ('10 Jets). The Ravens' 4 TDs vs the Pats came on drives of 90, 87, 63, & 47 yds, while the Niners' 4 TDs vs the Falcons came on drives of 80, 82, 82, & 38 yds. These 2 have never lost a SuperBowl, with this the first for the Niners (5-0) since '94, & for the Ravens (1-0) since '00. Lewis was MVP of SuperBowl XXXV. Baltimore's "D" is definitely better than its stats, as it recovers from the injury bug, most notably Lewis' torn tri.
Flacco's 8-2 record in his first 5 years puts him just 1 behind Brady's 9-0, & ties him with Roethlisberger, also 8-2. John Harbaugh is 8-4 in playoffs, while Jim is 3-1. These 2 met on Thanksgiving Day in '11, with the Ravens prevailing 16-6, in a defensive struggle. The Niners had a 182-(-2) yd deficit in the first quarter at Atlanta. SanFran TE Davis caught only 7 passes in his previous 7 games, before 5 vs the Falcons (106 yds & a TD). Niners' James scored his 1st career TD in that win (3rd straight NFC title game that has happened).
Did anyone mention that this pits 2 brothers as opposing head coaches? Thus, the "Harbaugh Bowl" moniker. The 2 have made major adjustments, with the Niners replacing Smith with the sensational Kaepernick in game #10, while the Ravens changed offensive coordinators in game #14 (Caldwell for Cameron), & both moves have certainly panned out. A year ago, these 2 squads suffered bitter defeats in their title games (missed chip shot FG for Ravens, & fumbled punt for Niners). Thus, no questioning their pedigree. Lewis' swan song may have the earmarks of destiny, with his surrounding cast (Flacco, Rice, Boldin, Reed, etc) certainly capable. But the Niners definitely have proven themselves, especially with those 45 pts, 323 RYs, & 579 TYs vs the Packers. No question that Kaepernick is the key, as defending the "Pistol" has proven unsolvable thus far. That Raven "D" is loaded with quality, & wily veterans, but may just be a step too slow to contain this Niner. This could be a classic. We'll lay the spot.
PROPHECY: SAN FRANCISCO 31 - Baltimore 23 RATING: 4
PLAYBOOK
(13-6) BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-4-1)
Baltimore over San Francisco by 1
Get ready for the Bro Bowl. Unlike Romulus and Remus, Jim and John Harbaugh will not be fighting to a terrible death.
Instead, they are the first pair of brothers to coach against each other in a Super Bowl. And as such, SB XLVII will be filled with plenty of firsts… and lasts.
The Harbaughs
The Harbaugh brothers became the only siblings to coach against one another in any NFL game on Thanksgiving Day, 2011, when the Ravens beat the 49ers, 16-6.
A lot has happened since then. Baltimore has gone 18-8 SU, with half of the losses by 3 or fewer points. Meanwhile, in 25 games since the inaugural Harbaugh battle, San Francisco has gone 18-6-1, with all but one win by more than 3 points. Good luck fi guring out how that fits into this handicap!
What does figure, though, is that BOTH Harbaughs bring plenty to the table in this contest. Under Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco is: 25-1-1 SU in games in which the 49ers rush the ball 25 or more times; 7-1 SUATS versus AFC opposition (only loss to brother John’s Ravens); and 19-5 SU and 18-4-2 ATS in games played outside the NFC West.
With John Harbaugh, Baltimore is: 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS with rest; 30-12 SU versus an opponent Harbaugh defeated in the last meeting; and 13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS against NFC opposition.
Over, Brother
In addition, they each bring smiles to ‘Over’ players’ faces with Frisco Jim standing 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ‘Over’ in games where the total is set at more than 43 points, while Baltimore John is 5-1-1 ‘Over’ in games where the total is identically set at more than 43 points.
Behind Center
To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring the postseason’s best QB Ratings into the fray with Baltimore’s Joe Flacco topping the list at 114.7, with 8 TD’s and 0 INT’s, while San Fran’s Colin Kaepernick is right on his heels at 105.9, with 3 TD’s and 1 INT.
Flacco’s regular season QB Rating was 87.7. Kaepernick’s was 98.3. Flacco is 62-30 SU and 50-38-4 ATS in his NFL career, while going 44-45-3 ‘Under.’ In games against the NFC – and given the fact he’s started every game since he and John Harbaugh came aboard together in 2008 – Flacco’s numbers mirror Harbaugh’s in games against NFC opponents (13-7 SU and 12-8 ATS and 12-6-2 ‘Over’). During the postseason, Super Joe is 8-4 SU and ATS and 4-8 ‘Under.’
Kaepernick shined after taking over as the Niners’ starter in mid-November, going 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS and 8-1 ‘Over.’ The lead pistol is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in non-division games.
Head-To-Head
Breaking down each team’s schedule, in games versus fellow playoff teams this season, Baltimore went 4-3 SU and ATS and 3-4 ITS (In The Stats), losing the stats by an average 20 YPG. Meanwhile, San Francisco was 5-2 SU and 3-3-1 ATS and 3-4 ITS, breaking even in YPG.
In games against common opponents this season (Giants and Patriots), Baltimore was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, winning the stats by an average 127 YPG. On the fl ip side, San Francisco struggled against the common tandem, going 1-1 SU and ATS despite being outyarded in both games by an average 86 YPG.
Statistically Speaking
Baltimore’s 364 YPG offense is the 11th best in the league while its 361 YPG defense ranks No. 21.
San Francisco owns a Top 10 ranked offense and defense, averaging 375 YPG on offense and 308 YPG on defense.
From Game Nine out, or the 2nd half of the season, the Ravens’ net yardage (offense gained and defense allowed) improved 31 YPG. Surprisingly, the Niners’ net yardage slipped 29 YPG over the same span.
Defense Rules… Most Of The Time It’s no surprise that 39 of the 46 Super Bowl winners have owned Top 10 ranked defenses.
What is surprising, though, is that while clubs with the better defense have gone 22-10 SU and 17-13-2 ATS in the big game since 1981, these teams are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS the last six years.
Super Bowl History
• Baltimore’s top guns – the alias Smith and Flacco – have been a chief contributor to this franchise’s all-time best 13-7 postseason record in NFL history. The Ravens are 1-0 SU and ATS in their only Super Bowl appearance.
• San Francisco has yet to lose a Super Bowl, going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS all-time.
• The NFC has controlled the last 31 Super Bowls, going 21-10 SU and 20-9-3 ATS, including 4-0 SU and ATS the last four years. However, the AFC actually holds the upper hand of late, going 9-6 SU the last 15 years.
• 15 of the last 18 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.
• Teams who lost SU as a playoff favorite last year (Niners) are 4-9 SU and ATS, including 0-5 ATS as favorites.
• Teams off a SU underdog win (Ravens) are 13-6-1 ATS, including 7-1-1 ATS off back-to-back SU underdog wins.
• Favorites who allow 3.9 or more Yards Per Rush (Niners) are 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS.
• Teams with a better win percentage (Niners) are on a 3-6 SU and 0-9 ATS slide.
• The last seven NFC representatives have faced the AFC East in their designated non-conference games.
• 12 of 18 Super Bowl games on artifi cial turf have played ‘Under’ the total.
At Last
And then there’s Ray Lewis, Baltimore’s mercurial LB and MVP from SB XXXV in 2001 when the Ravens beat the New York Giants, 34-7.
This game marks Lewis’ last game as a player in his NFL career, thus guaranteeing, at the very least, an emotional effort from the Black Birds.
The Bottom Line
Both teams bring strong numbers to the table, especially since making vital positional changes to each offense (Colin Kaepernick replacing Alex Smith at quarterback for the 49ers and new OC Jim Caldwell replacing Cam Cameron for the Ravens). But it’s hard to turn an eye against a team that has downed sure-fi re Hall of Famers Peyton Manning and Tom Brady on their home fi elds in each of its last two games.
So from the ‘Bro Bowl’ to Lewis’ last game, don’t expect SB XLVII to end tragically like the tale of Romulus and Remus. Instead, in the end, look for John to be crowned king of the Harbaughs.
WINNING POINTS
SUPER BOWL XLVII
Baltimore over San Francisco by 3 (at New Orleans, LA)
We absolutely guarantee the winner of Super Bowl XLVII at the Superdome in New Orleans will be a Harbaugh-coached team.We just have to figure out if it is John Harbaugh’s Ravens, or his younger brother Jim’s 49ers. Favorites have covered in seven of the 10 playoff games, yet we’re going to side with Baltimore. John Harbaugh has brought the Ravens to the AFC championship game in three of his five seasons. Now he’s reached the Super Bowl. The Ravens hosted the 49ers on Thanksgiving night last season and won, 16-6.
Now this may not even be Harbaugh’s best Ravens team due to defensive injuries, but the veteran-led Ravens have tremendous momentum,are resilient and Joe Flacco is playing the best he’s ever played away from M&T Bank Stadium.There’s also the Ray Lewis retirement motivation factor. It shouldn’t be discounted.The Ravens are 5-5 without their future Hall of Fame linebacker and 8-1 with him.The 37-year-old Lewis not only still has it in this his 17th and final season, but he remains a huge inspiration to his teammates.This isn’t an anti-49ers play. Obviously by the final margin we’re expecting a close game.
We just feel this is Baltimore’s time. Colin Kaepernick has elevated the 49ers’ offense to be on a par with their upper tier defense.Kaepernick’s quarterback rating is well above 100 since he became the starter leading San Francisco to eight victories in its last 10 games. Kaepernick has been brilliant in his playoff wins against Green Bay and Atlanta throwing for a combined 496 yards, rushing for another 202 yards and accounting for five touchdowns. Kaepernick brings a mobility factor the Ravens have yet to encounter.Yet during their past two games the Ravens knocked off Peyton Manning and Tom Brady – two of the all-time greatest quarterbacks – in successive weeks on the road. That achievement can’t be downplayed and it proves Baltimore is way past its late season blues when it dropped four of its last five regular season games.In beating New England in the AFC championship game,the Ravens held the Patriots to fewer than 14 points.That hadn’t happened to New England since Week 2. The Ravens’ veteran and proud defense has two weeks to study Kaepernick.
The Falcons kept Kaepernick much more in check than Green Bay learning from the Packers’ mistake of not keeping Kaepernick in the pocket. Flacco outplayed Brady in last year’s AFC title game in Foxboro. He outplayed Manning in the cold at Denver and he outplayed Brady again in Foxboro during this year’s title game. Flacco has a 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last six postseason games. Flacco has won more than half of his playoff road games. His six playoff road victories are more than Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw, Steve Young,Troy Aikman, Favre, Brady and Manning.Those seven legendary quarterbacks were a combined 13-29 in road playoff contests.
Kaepernick has elevated the play of Michael Crabtree turning him into a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Frank Gore remains highly effective. LaMichael James is a dangerous scatback and Vernon Davis always has to be watched.San Francisco’s offensive line is one of the best, if not the best in the league.The 49ers’ offense, however, has shined much more at home. San Francisco has failed to break the 383-yard barrier in nine road matchups. Baltimore’s offense has come together at the right time. No team has had more downfield passing success during the postseason than the Ravens. Flacco has averaged 284 yards passing in three playoff games this year. He’s thrown eight touchdown passes without an interception. His quarterback rating for the postseason is 125.6, 116.2 and 106.3. By comparison,Aaron Rodgers led the NFL with a 108 quarterback rating. Baltimore’s offensive line has stepped up during the postseason.
Flacco has thrown touchdown passes of 40 yards of longer to six different receivers this year.Ray Rice is one of the five best all-purpose backs in the league. Kicker Justin Tucker made 14 of 17 field goal attempts from 40 yards or more, including nailing a game-winning 47-yard field goal in tough weather conditions at Denver.Contrast this with San Francisco kicker David Akers,who may be the least effective starting kicker in the league missing 13 of 42 field goal attempts, including a 38-yarder in Atlanta’s dome stadium during the NFC title game.Akers is 9-for-19 in field goal tries from 40 plus yards. Baltimore has another special teams edge with Pro Bowl returner Jacoby Jones. He led the league in kick return average at 30.7 yards and was 15th in punt return average at 9.2 while tying for the league lead with three total return touchdowns.
It was a botched punt return that cost the 49ers a trip to the Super Bowl last season. San Francisco’s defense allowed just 4.7 yards per play during the regular season, which was the best mark in the NFC.The 49ers surrendered the second-fewest points in the league. Star defensive lineman Justin Smith has shown he can hold up despite playing with a bulky arm brace to protect a torn bicep.The 49ers can be beat on the ground, though, especially now with topnotch run-stuffer Smith at less than 100 percent.They yielded an average of 143 yards rushing during the five games they did not win.Rice provides Flacco with a solid running option and is perhaps the best checkdown receiving back in the league.The Ravens averaged 13 more runs and 74.2 more yards on the ground in their first three games after replacing stodgy offensive coordinator Cam Cameron with Jim Caldwell in Week 15. San Francisco is a solid, wellcoached team. But the Ravens are on a roll.They’ve beaten the two best AFC teams as underdogs of more than a touchdown. The Patriots would have opened the favorite against the 49ers if they would have reached the Super Bowl.Taking the points with the Ravens is the way to go. BALTIMORE 27-24 .OVER/UNDER: Just 22 points were scored when Jim and John Harbaugh matched wits for the first time last season in Baltimore on Thanksgiving night.
It was the first time in NFL history that two brothers opposed each other as head coaches. Count on many more points being scored in Round 2 of the Harbaugh Civil War.We’re calling it for Baltimore, 27-24. The Ravens sacked Alex Smith nine times in a 16-6 win during that Thanksgiving victory. The 49ers have replaced Smith, a game-manager with a limited arm, with electrifying Colin Kaepernick. The change has made the 49ers go from a team that used to rely on its defense and field position to a quick-strike offense capable of moving the ball on the ground and through the air with a downfield, attack mentality. Kaepernick ranks with Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton as the most dangerous running quarterback.The 49ers have gone over in their last six games.The Ravens went over in six of its nine games versus playoff opponents matchup when offensive reserves played much of the time. San Francisco has a very strong defense, but it hasn’t been dominant down the stretch.If you throw out the 49ers’game against the offensively-challenged Cardinals and their fourth-string quarterback Brian Hoyer, San Francisco has given up an average of 32.7 points in its last four games. Joe Flacco can take advantage riding a hot streak of eight touchdown throws in Baltimore’s three playoff victories. Anquan Boldin has stepped up nicely for Flacco with 16 catches, 276 yards and three touchdowns during the playoffs.
Both Kaepernick and Flacco are going to be helped playing on a fast track inside the temperature-controlled Superdome in New Orleans.
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Baltimore Total SacksFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco’s Colin Kaepernick was sacked three times or more in three games this season. In his first real extended playing time of his career, Kaepernick was brought down three times against St. Louis, who finished second in the NFL in sacks. The Rams got to him again three times in Week 13 and Miami, another above average pass rush, took him down four times. Other than that, including both postseason games, Kaepernick was sacked either once or not at all. Baltimore posted a league average 37 sacks during the regular season. En route to the Super Bowl, they notched three apiece against Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck – two of the least mobile quarterbacks in the league. And against Tom Brady, who also isn't very swift and threw the ball 54 times, the Ravens came up empty in the sack department. To lose this bet, Baltimore will need to record three sacks. I don’t see that happening.
Sean Murphy
Most passing yards
Joe Flacco (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Colin Kaepernick (San Francisco 49ers)
I expect both quarterbacks to have plenty of success on Sunday, but I can't resist playing Kaepernick with a considerable yardage cushion. The 49ers receivers match up well against the Ravens secondary, and I don't think we'll see Kaepernick hesitate to throw it deep when given the opportunity.
We haven't seen a lot of that from the rookie, but I expect the Ravens to do a nice job of limiting Kaepernick's mobility in this game and as a result, forcing him to take to the air a little more often than usual. Joe Flacco is well-positioned to turn in another stellar effort but his lack of consistency worries me in terms of this prop.
Take: Kaepernick +17.5 yards (-110)
Most rushing yards
Ray Rice (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers)
Ray Rice is still the Ravens’ go-to guy out of the backfield, but Bernard Pierce has certainly cut into his workload and I think we'll see more of that Sunday. The 49ers are obviously tough up front and I'm not sure that Rice's physical, north-south running will lead to a big day on the ground. Don't be surprised if Rice is more of a factor in the Ravens’ short passing game.
Colin Kaepernick is getting all of the press, but Frank Gore is still the engine that makes the 49ers offense go. With much of the Ravens’ defensive game-planning geared toward stopping Kaepernick, Gore will find plenty of room to run. He might not see the end zone, with LaMichael James delivering consistently from 15 yards in, but he'll outrun Ray Rice by a considerable margin.
Take: Gore -17.5 yards (-110)
Most pass receptions
Anquan Boldin (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers)
The re-emergence of Anquan Boldin has been an overlooked factor in the Ravens’ run to the Super Bowl. Joe Flacco is more comfortable throwing to Boldin than anyone else right now and in a game of this magnitude, it's the veterans that often shine.
Michael Crabtree has really come out of his shell over the last couple of months. No 49ers receiver has benefited more from the change at quarterback. With that comes more attention from the opposition, and I won't be surprised if the Ravens send double-coverage Crabtree's way on numerous occasions.
Take: Boldin (+105)
Total combined field goals made
The hook could come in to play, so make sure you can find a 3.5.
The Ravens have a lot of faith in Justin Tucker, but the 49ers are at the opposite end of the spectrum with David Akers.
I simply feel that the two offenses are operating at a peak level right now and we won't see a lot of stalled drives in enemy territory. Let's call for two from Tucker and one from Akers.
Take: Under 3.5 (-160)
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Joe Flacco Longest CompletionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: Over 40.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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If the Baltimore Ravens are going to win this game, they will need to do it by exploiting San Francisco’s secondary. That means Joe Flacco will need to make some big plays down field. Flacco has shown a deft touch downfield throughout the season. This postseason, we’ve already seen him toss passes of 47, 50, 59 and 70 yards. And in 19 total games this season, Flacco has hit for 40 or more yards 16 times. The 49ers have surrendered at least one 40+ yard pass in five straight games dating back to the regular season. Look for a sixth here on Sunday.
Prop Picks - 49ers
By CarbonSports
Super Bowl Props: San Francisco Edition
Today I’m looking at the various props offered regarding the 49ers performance in the big game on Sunday. Like yesterday’s piece on Baltimore, there are some good numbers out there with the 49ers player props.
Here are a couple that have got my attention.
Aldon Smith – Total solo + assisted tackles (sacks don’t count): Over 3.5 (-150) vs. Under 3.5 (+120)
After all the accolades Smith got during the season when he was on pace to break the single-season sack record, he seems to have disappeared in the playoffs. In the two playoff games Smith has a grand total of 3 tackles and 0 sacks. Green Bay and Atlanta found ways to neutralize his pass-rushing ability and with Justin Smith nowhere near 100%, offensive lines can key on Smith and take him out of the game.
Baltimore should be able to accomplish this as well as any help they do bring against San Francisco’s defense ends will clearly be on Aldon’s side. Even if he does break free for a sack or two they won’t count towards this bet so you’ve really got to hope he catches Ray Rice running or on screen passes an awful lot.
I just don’t see it happening. If you take away his sacks, he only got to 4 or more tackles five times this season. Even then, most of those games he finished with only 4, so it’s not like he is a dominating force if you take away his pass-rushing ability.
Take the +120 on the under.
Colin Kaepernick – Total completions: Over 17.5 (+100) vs. Under 17.5 (-120)
Kaepernick has been the talk of the 49ers ever since he became the starter and it has been his playmaking ability that got San Francisco to this point. But he is still refining his passing game and that only comes with time.
Since he became the full-time starter he has only topped 17.5 completions three times. One of those was their Week 16 (42-13) blowout loss in Seattle when San Fran got behind early on and had to basically abandon their running game. Kaepernick attempted 36 passes that day (his most all season) and completed 19 of them.
Another one of those games was the 16-13 OT loss to the Rams where he went 21-for-32 passing. Kaepernick had still gone over 17.5 without the extra frame – he completed 3 passes in OT – but it was still right on the number with 18. Defensively, the Rams are quite similar to Baltimore in terms of bringing pressure and being physical with wide receivers making getting over this number tough.
Even in this stadium against the sieve-like New Orleans pass defense, Kaepernick only went 16-25 passing in the 31-21 win. In the playoffs he has finished with 17 and 16 completions respectively, but Green Bay and Atlanta’s defenses aren’t quite on the level that this Baltimore team is.
Take under 17.5
THE GOLD SHEET
BALTIMORE (13-6) vs. SAN FRANCISCO (13-4-1)
A LOOK AT SAN FRANCISCO
The 49ers and Super Bowls have made quite a combination in the past. While frustrated at the last hurdle in NFC title games vs. Dallas in the first two postmerger years of 1970 & ‘71, San Francisco would eventually make amends...and then some. The arrival of HC Bill Walsh in 1979 began to re-energize the franchise, which embarked upon a decade of dominance in the ‘80s, winning four Super Bowls with QB Joe Montana in nine seasons between 1981-89, and another in 1994 with Steve Young as the offensive pilot. (Walsh retired as coach after the ‘88 Super Bowl win over the Bengals, with George Seifert presiding over the title winners of ‘89 and ‘94.) The 49ers have the NFL’s best win percentage in Super Bowls (5-0!), although they haven’t been to one in eighteen years (SB XXIX), when they romped past the Chargers 49-26 in Miami.
The current resurrection of the 49ers under second-year HC Jim Harbaugh has been almost as dramatic as the Walsh renaissance three decades earlier. The 49ers hadn’t even been to the playoffs since 2002 until Harbaugh arrived in 2011 from a wildly-successful stint at Stanford. Inheriting a playoff-quality defense, Harbaugh hardly skipped a beat from his successful teams on The Farm, able to overcome offensive limitations by employing a similar, Stanford-like, powerbased ground game based around RB Frank Gore’s thrusts to complement that robust “D” and win the NFC West a year ago while advancing to within a whisker of the Super Bowl, when a couple of late punt-return fumbles proved costly in a bitter OT loss to the Giants in the NFC title game at Candlestick Park.
San Francisco was proceeding in a similar manner this season when Harbaugh made the bold move of switching QBs in mid-November, benching previous starter Alex Smith for 2nd-year ex-Nevada “Pistol” operator Colin Kaepernick, whom Harbaugh believed possessed the potential playmaking ability and upside that would give the 49ers their best shot at reaching the “Supe” in New Orleans. Kaepernick immediately rewarded Harbaugh’s faith with a nearflawless effort in a late-November 32-7 romp past the Bears and has been mostly on the mark since (sometimes breathtakingly so) while winning 7 of 9 starts.
Along the way Kaepernick has won games over teams featuring established QB stars such as Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Matt Ryan, lending a legit homerun dimension to the formerly staid 49er offense. Kaepernick, who passed for better than 2000 yards and rushed for more than 1000 yards in each of his last three seasons at Nevada, is a unique dual-threat who destroyed Green Bay in the Division Round with an NFL playoff rushing record for a QB (181 yards) while detonating a 579-yard offensive explosion vs. the Pack, before mostly using his arm to lead a comeback win at Atlanta in the NFC title game when Falcon d.c. Mike Nolan committed resources to prevent Kaepernick from escaping along the edge.
Along the way, Kaepernick has developed a better rapport with WR Michael Crabtree (a dangerous 35 catches in the last five games) than did Alex Smith, while also re-establishing a connection with TE Vernon Davis just in time during the NFC title game when Davis caught an important 5 passes and a key TD. Kaepernick’s electric arm and legs, in conjunction with perhaps the NFL’s mostathletic OL, plus RBs Gore (1214 YR TY) and recently-emerging Oregon rookie lightning bolt LaMichael James (scored first career TD in Atlanta playoff win), lead an infantry assault that gained a whopping 5.1 ypc, all combining to give SF a more-menacing offensive look than a year ago.
This new-found sharp-edged attack has temporarily taken some of the spotlight away from a “D” that again ranked among the NFL’s best (NFC tops in fewest yards allowed at 294 ypg and behind only Seattle in points at 17.1 ppg) and remains loaded with playmakers, including an All-Pro collection of LBs led by NFC sack leader Aldon Smith (19½ sacks). But the platoon has leaked a bit in the postseason, allowing 414.5 yards and 27.5 points pg, while Aldon Smith is now without a sack in five straight games. The 49ers have also advanced despite a choppy campaign from usually-reliable PK David Akers, who has missed an uncharacteristic 14 of 44 FG tries (including playoffs).
A LOOK AT BALTIMORE
The story of the 2012 Ravens for the Super Bowl is much more the story of their recent games than it is of their entire season. Remember, top 2011 pass rusher OLB Terrell Suggs (14 sacks LY) suffered a torn Achilles in April. Then, ILB Ray Lewis (torn biceps) and top CB Lardarius Webb (ACL) went down in the sixth game. With some of its key members injured, the once-gnarly Baltimore defense ended up a middle-of-the-pack 17th in yards allowed this season and 13th in points allowed.
But through the adversity, the Ravens hung tough. With Ray Lewis out, Suggs returned earlier than expected, albeit at less than 100%. Even when the "O" was struggling on the road, Baltimore never gave up, exemplified by its against-theodds, fourth-and-29 conversion on the famous Ray Rice reception in San Diego on Nov. 25 to set up a last-chance tying FG vs. the Chargers and a 16-13 victory in overtime. With the offense laboring and the team smarting from two straight late-season losses, HC John Harbaugh fired 4½-year o.c.Cam Cameron, who had guided QB Joe Flacco from rookie starter to an unprecedented four playoff appearances (5-4 SU) in his first four years. (Including 2012, Flacco is now an impressive 8-4 overall in the playoffs, including a record six victories as a visitor.) Cameron’s replacement is former Indy QB assistant and later HC Jim Caldwell, who had never been a playcaller. But even the ousted Cameron says Harbaugh’s decision to make the change was a good move, getting the players’ attention and improving the attack’s consistency. The Ravens lost their first Caldwell game (34-17 to Denver). Since then, Baltimore has scored 31 ppg (excluding the finale in Cincy, where starters played only sparingly) in four games—all wins, three in the playoffs—with Flacco throwing 10 TDs without an interception. Baltimore insiders say that Caldwell, after a decade of working with Peyton Manning at Indy, has developed increasing rapport with the strong-armed Flacco, who has since helped crush the desperate Giants in the first half of Game 15, dominate the Colts in the Ravens’ first playoff game, repeatedly overcome the Broncos in frigid Denver in the Divisional Round, and then finish off the defending AFC champ Patriots two weeks ago.
With 8 TDs and 0 ints. in the 2012 playoffs, Flacco has been able to exploit what many believe is one of the more underrated receiving corps in the league rugged possession WR Anquan Boldin (65 recs.), second-year deep threat Torrey Smith (8 TDC), erratic but explosive WR/KR Jacoby Jones (the 70-yard last-minute strike vs. the Broncos), clutch TE Dennis Pitta (7 TDs in regular season; 2 more in playoffs) and TE mate Ed Dickson, plus RB Ray Rice and bruising FB Vontae Leach.
Harbaugh/Caldwell have made two other moves to boost the offense in the playoffs. Benched tackle Bryant McKinnie (told to get in shape and practice better) has earned his way back into the starting lineup at LT, allowing standout run blocker Michael Oher to move from LT back to his natural RT. That has bumped promising 335-pound rookie Kelechi Osemele of Iowa State from RT inside to LG, where he is paired with Pro Bowl RG Marshal Yanda. The result has been 149 ypg rushing and only four sacks in three playoff games.
Moreover, Caldwell has given more carries to developing rookie RB Bernard Pierce, who has rushed for 65 ypc in the last seven, helping to keep star RB Rice (1143 YR in regular season) fresh and offering a slightly more powerful punch than Rice when needed.
Meanwhile, the defense has received a boost from the return of vocal leader Ray Lewis, who has collected 25 tackles and 19 assists in the three playoff games despite playing with a brace on his right arm. Just as important, however, have been his 17 years of experience, which will be extremely important in keeping the 49ers’ elusive Colin Kaepernick corralled. With Lewis in the middle and with wily safety Ed Reed positioning the DBs, the Baltimore defense has allowed only four TDs in three playoff games vs. Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady (Raven coverage teams have allowed two others).
Perhaps the greatest concerns for the Ravens are their less-effective pass rush this season (without a full-speed Suggs to lead the charge, LB Paul Kruger paced the team with 9 sacks) and the erratic play at CB and nickel-back (coaches were still pulling young CBs after some mistakes in the playoffs, providing immediate coaching input). Despite the poor STs coverage in Denver, Baltimore possesses its own lightning bolt returner in Jacoby Jones, who already has 4 PR TDs and 3 KR TDs in his career. Rookie FA kicker Justin Tucker has been a big Raven plus, converting 32 of 35 FG chances TY, including 2 of 2 in the playoffs.
There is often a knee-jerk reaction among handicappers to be swayed by the pointspread in championship-level games. That’s because underdog teams in such matchups are usually of high quality; we’re not talking about regular-reason also-rans like the Browns and Jaguars getting points from the oddsmakers. No, title-game participants are always formidable, and there is always something intoxicating about getting additional points with a team good enough to play for all of the marbles.
Perhaps that dynamic has something to do with why we’ve been inclined to back the title-game underdogs as well, especially in recent Super Bowls when we often thought the team that was going to win the game was also the one getting the points from the oddsmakers. We were all in with the underdog Giants, both last season and five years ago, because we thought they had a real shot on each occasion to beat the Patriots. Never mind the pointspread. Just as we liked the underdog Saints to beat the Colts three years ago. Similarly, we backed underdogs such as the Cardinals against the Steelers in Tampa and Steelers against the Packers at Arlington in other recent Super Bowls, each time because we really thought the “short” was going to win. Besides, playing the dogs in recent Super Bowls has also been pretty good business, as they have covered 8 of the last 11.
But, as in the recent BCS title game between Alabama and Notre Dame, when we backed the favored Crimson Tide, our gut instinct tells us the price is quite fair in Super Bowl XLVII. And we are going to resist that natural temptation to back the quality underdog (in this case Baltimore), mostly because we at TGS are in unanimous agreement that San Francisco will win this game.
We’re not going to waste much space by expounding upon the Ravens’ flaws. Which have been a lot harder to identify in the postseason, one in which QB Joe Flacco has been almost error-free (with no picks) and the defense, finally healthy and with emotional leader Ray Lewis back in the fold after an extended absence, has begun to resemble its former dominant self. We also tip our hat to HC John Harbaugh for rallying the troops in mid-December when the season seemed to be unraveling after a three-game losing streak and unorthodox dismissal of o.c. Cam Cameron following a December 9 OT defeat at Washington. Sources say Cameron was grinding with Flacco and creating an unwanted tension that Harbaugh suspected was undermining the entire operation. That bold move by the Baltimore version of Harbaugh has been rewarded.
But in the bold move category, we suspect the one made by John’s brother Jim in San Francisco when benching QB Alex Smith in mid-November in favor of 2nd-year Colin Kaepernick will end up being more impactful on Sunday. Kaepernick has not only been near flawless in his nine subsequent starts, but he has added a unique dimension to the 49er attack with not only his ability to run, but also his laser-like arm that has put WR Michael Crabtree into play as a dangerous downfield threat. Kaepernick has also been mostly unflappable, shaking off an early pick-6 in the Division Round vs. Green Bay to subsequently dominate the Pack, and then demonstrate further resilience when displaying uncommon cool in the NFC title game in leading the 49ers back from a 0-17 deficit at the noisy Georgia Dome vs. Atlanta. In addition, Kaepernick flashed plenty of moxie in a late-season game at New England when answering a late Tom Brady rally by confidently leading a late TD drive to put the 49ers back in control. Not your normal NFL QB with only 9 starts.
Moreover, Kaepernick has been at his best vs. the best, tossing 4 TD passes in that win over the Patriots, leading a 579-yard assault (inclduing his own 181 YR) vs. Green Bay, and finding a different way to beat Atlanta in the NFC title game when the Falcons committed resources to controlling Kaepernick’s dashes on the flanks. His presence also provides a much different look to the 49ers than the Alex Smith “O” that could not stretch the field and lost at Baltimore by a 16-6 count in a Thanksgiving 2011 game. Most of the dynamics from that matchup fourteen months ago no longer exist, mainly because of Kaepernick.
While formidable, Baltimore’s “D” has also been facing the equivalent of traffic cones at QB (Peyton Manning and Brady) in its last two palyofff games, and in fact had to deal with only one truly mobile signal-caller all season (the Redskins’ RG III, who improvised with some success in an early December Washington win before being KO’d in the 2nd half). Containing Kaepernick presents a daunting challenge; indeed, as the Falcons discovered, it’s pick your poison against the new-look 49er offense. Though rugged, does the Raven stop unit possess the foot speed to deal with Kaepernick?
Credit Flacco and the Raven strike force for answering the challenge in the postseason. But just a little bit of smarts by the Denver DBs (that’s mainly you, Rahim Moore) would have prevented Baltimore, operating without any timeouts, from that miracle 70-yard TD pass to tie the Division Round game in the last 30 seconds and instead sent the Ravens home on January 12. We suspect Flacco, no Fred Astaire he in the pocket, will be facing plenty of pressure from the aggressive 49er front seven. San Francisco’s 2ndary can play tight coverage and attack Flacco’s receiving targets because Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman are going to pressure Flacco, who could in turn be forcing his throws. And the 49er “D” (allowing only 3.7 ypc) will limit the damage Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce can inflict on the ground.
In conclusion, of the many riveting storylines in this matchup, we expect the most compelling of all will be the emergence of Kaepernick, whose unique dimension is something Baltimore is not likely to be able to match.
SCOREFORECAST
SAN FRANCISCO 33 - Baltimore 20
SUPER BOWL “TOTALS” PICK
The perfect conditions indoors and the artificial turf at the Superdome make one think first about the “over” despite the solid defenses of these two teams. And our preceding writeups on the teams emphasize how both of the talented starting QBs are still on the ascent and excelling in the playoffs.
Moreover, have the NFL’s rules and “points of emphasis” for game officials ever been more friendly to the offenses? Let’s also note how San Francisco has gone “over” in 9 of 10 Colin Kaepernick games (including the 24-24 tie vs. the Rams, when Kaepernick took over for the injured Alex Smith in the second quarter).
History shows that 13 of the last 19 Super Bowls with an over/under line of less than 50 have gone "over" the postal total.
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Michael Crabtree Total ReceptionsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 6FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Instead of using the entire 16-game season to analyze the San Francisco 49ers box scores for making our prop bets, we really only need about half the season. This is due to the change at quarterback, with Colin Kaepernick taking over for Alex Smith midseason. As a result, looking at games with Smith as the starting quarterback is useless, and there is a much smaller sample size than usual to base our wagers. One thing that really stands out in the games with Kaepernick under center is how much he targets his top receiver, Michael Crabtree. Crabtree has caught six or more passes in six of the last seven games, and will no doubt be targeted heavily on Sunday. The game plan shouldn’t change that much, and the number and price here offers us plenty of value that he will hang on to the majority of balls thrown his way.
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Total Sacks by Both TeamsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 4.5FOR REE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Neither one of these quarterbacks has been sacked much lately, and the pass rush for both teams has not been great as well. Colin Kaepernick has obviously shown that he is not afraid to tuck the ball and run, and he is also not given the opportunity to stand in the pocket and go through a long progression of receivers. Most of San Francisco’s pass plays are read and throw, or read and run, and as a result, Kaepernick has been sacked exactly one time in each of his last five games. Joe Flacco is also making quick decisions in the pocket and getting good protection from his offensive line. He has been sacked just four times in his last four games, not counting the throw away game against Cincinnati in the season finale when he barely played. With both teams placing an emphasis on running the ball, there should be fewer opportunities for the quarterbacks to be sacked. I see lots of value with under 4.5.
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Baltimore +3½ over San FranciscoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The 49ers deserve to be here. They were a couple of gaffes away from making this trip last year and despite an agonizing loss to the eventual champion Giants, they got right back on their horse and maintained a high level of play throughout the 2012 season. San Francisco is one of the most balanced teams in the league.
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Offensively, they have a strong runner in Frank Gore, an explosive tight end in Vernon Davis and a dangerous receiver in Michael Crabtree. The Niners defence features one of the strongest linebacking corps in the NFL as Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman all were voted to this year’s Pro Bowl. While each brings a different skill set, Smith is a pass rushing maniac with 33.5 sacks in two years, the most by any NFL player in his first two seasons. Despite a plethora of talent, the team appeared to be stuck in a gear. That all changed midway through the season when starting QB Alex Smith was hurt and 2nd year QB Colin Kaepernick was called to duty. A much needed spark at the all-important position, Kaepernick displayed the ability to pass the ball with authority while possessing a deceptively fast pair of legs. Some say that Coach Jim Harbaugh made an ingenious decision to stick with the sophomore quarterback but in reality, any other decision would have been downright dumb. It was evident to teammates and fans alike that Kaepernick could very likely be the catalyst needed to get the 49ers to the Promised Land. While all of it makes for a great story, we’re not so sure this tale will have a happy ending.
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The Ravens were an unlikely group to get here. They started the season well but in sports, it’s how you finish that usually counts. Baltimore limped into these playoffs with four losses in their final five regular season games. Somehow though, and we’ve seen it before, they caught lightning in a bottle. They disposed of the inexperienced Colts before heading toDenver and New England in consecutive weeks to knock off both AFC favoured clubs. That feat alone has us wondering why the Ravens should be the underdog in this game. For some reason, the 49ers are perceived to have the better defence. We’re not sure where that is coming from.Baltimore held Indianapolis to nine points. More impressively, they held the highest scoring team in the league to 13 points while keeping the Patriots scoreless in the 2nd half. Besides, our eyes don’t lie. We’ve seen San Francisco give up tons of yardage to capable passing teams. In these playoffs alone, the Niners have allowed an alarming 414.5 yards per game while relinquishing an average of 27.5 points per contest. In San Fran’s four losses and a tie during the regular season, the 49ers appeared susceptible to the deep pass. Opponents in those five games, which included the Vikings, Seahawks Giants and Rams twice, completed 50% of throws that traveled more than 15 yards
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That brings us to the quarterbacks. A neutral field and we have Joe Flacco taking points against Colin Kaepernick. Huh? While Kaepernick has been impressive at times, he’s also displayed some immaturity in his game. Who can blame him? This will be the young pivot’s 10th game as a starter. It will be Joe Flacco’s 13th playoff start. The Baltimore QB will try to improve on his current 8-4 mark in the playoffs. Those eight post-season victories over five seasons make him one of only five quarterbacks in history to accomplish the same. Flacco’s six road playoff wins are the most by a quarterback in NFL history. Now, Mr. Flacco is being asked to outplay this young buck after outshining two of the greatest QB’s in history after defeating Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Not only did Flacco outplay that dynamic duo, he did so in less than ideal conditions as it was bitterly cold in Denver and slightly less unpleasant at Foxboro. If you think it’s a fluke, it’s not. Flacco has thrown 156 straight passes without an interception, including 93 in the playoffs. Over that span, he’s thrown10 touchdown passes and ran for another. In his past six playoff games, the 28-year old QB has a touchdown to interception ratio of 15-2. Getting back to the deep ball, Flacco has attempted 116 deep passes this year (20+ yards in the air) resulting in 15 touchdowns and zero interceptions. This not so ordinary Joe may be licking his chops thinking about facing San Francisco’s suspect secondary.
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Of course, coaching plays a part in all of this. As we all know, the head coaches of these two teams are brothers. Other than human interest, that fact has no bearing. Jim Harbaugh has definitely made a difference in San Franciscobut he’s the 2nd best NFL head coach in the family. John Harbaugh knows how to prepare his team. He’s very good at making adjustments. He’s not the cheerleading type like his kid brother. And he’s a skilled planner as evidenced by a 6-0 winning mark off a week’s rest. It should be noted that these two squared off on Thanksgiving Day last season with John’s Ravens triumphing over the Niners by a 16-6 count. Most notable about that win is the senior Harbaugh’s 30-12 lifetime mark against teams he defeated in a previous encounter. It also marked Jim Harbaugh’s only loss against the AFC in eight attempts.
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As mentioned, the 49ers are worthy of their entry to this game. But so are the Ravens as they too were just a dropped pass away from a Super Bowl appearance last year. Like a well trained racehorse, Baltimore seems to be peaking at the right time (see: last year’s Giants). When a game has the feel of a close one like this one does, it only makes sense to accept any points being offered. When you add in Baltimore’s superior experience, talent at the skill positions and coaching advantage, the value play screams Ravens. We’re listening, loud and clear.
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Kobe Bryant Points vs. San Francisco PointsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Recommendation: San Francisco +0.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tired of losing, grasping at straws, desperate for a change...whatever it was, over the last week Kobe Bryant has transformed from gunner to facilitator. How long this lasts, no one knows. But what we do know is Kobe started passing and the Lakers started winning. They’ve won three of their last four (heading into Friday) and could of made it four straight had Dwight Howard not re-injured his shoulder during Wednesday's game at Phoenix. In those four games, Kobe attempted 51 shots (12.8 per game) and dished out 48 assists. In LA's previous four games to that (all losses), Kobe jacked up 102 shots (25.5 per game). On Sunday, the Lakers play at Detroit, one of the slower paced teams in the league. With a total of 47 and a line of -4, San Francisco is projected to score around 25 points which is close to where I made my numbers. So long as new Kobe doesn't morph back into old Kobe, this one cashes.
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Total Number of Touchdowns in the game. Over 5.5 (Even) Under 5.5 (-120)
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I like the Under 5.5 in this one. Giving away my play for tomorrow I do like a low scoring game and I just don't expect 6 TD's to be scored in this one. Baltimore is 2nd in the league in allowing TD's in the redzone (42.8%), while San Fran comes in allowing just 37.5% TD's in their last 3 games. Both teams may move the ball between the 20's but both teams will bog down in the redzone and have to settle for more FG's than TD's.
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Neither Team will put up 3 unanswered scores (+120)
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This has the feeling of a low scoring defensive battle. Both teams can move the ball between the 20's on these teams and it should at least set up some FG tries. I don't expect allow of scoring from either team, s I really don't see either team putting up 3 scores in a row n the other.
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Will both teams make a 33 yard or longer field goal Yes (+110)
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As i have stated above i do expect some FG's in this one and I can clearly see both teams hitting a FG of at least 33 yards. 22 of Justin Tucker's 30 FG's this year have been longer than 32 yards and he has hit 91.4% of his Field Goal attempts on the year, plus he has hit a 33+ yard FG in 14 games this year. David Akers has struggled this year overall, but still 20 of his 29 FG's have been beyond 30 yards and he has hit a 33+ yard FG in 13 games this year.
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Total Punts in the game. Over 9.5 (Even) Under 9.5 (-130)
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This will and should be a defensive battle and i don't see these coaches taking to many chances. Both teams have been playing solid defense this year and if it comes down to going for it on 4th an one at the 50 you can bet that both teams will look to pin their opponent deep with a punt. The first quarter should be a feeling out process and you may get 4 or 5 of hes punts in that quarter alone. Should be a conservative game with at least 11 punts in the game.
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Colin Kaepernick - Total Passing Yards- Under 238.5
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Colin has thrown for 244+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games, but the Niners are just 23rd in passing (206.8 ypg) and Colin has thrown for just 222 ypg in his starts. Baltimore is not bad vs the pass allowing 228 ypg. I also do expect this to be more of a run oriented game and that should keep his passing stats down as well. I expect him to throw for under 220 yards.
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Colin Kaepernick will NOT break the Quarterback Super Bowl rushing record of 64 yards (-160)
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I feel that the Ravens will come up with a game plan to keep the 49ers QB under wraps. The Packers didn't and he ran for 181 yards vs them. A big thing for the Ravens is to stop the read option cause Colin averages just 3.3 ypc on all other carries this year. Let's also note that Baltimore is 8th in the leage in yards per attempt allowed (4.0). Baltimore should keep him under wraps and under 55 yards at least.
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Total Field Goals made by David Akers - Over 1.5 (-130)
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I really do see a few FG's being kicked in this one and I expect that Akers will get at least 2 of them. I know he has struggled this year as he has hit just 69% of his, but he also hit at least 2 FG's in each of his last 5 games of the regular season and should get a chance of doing so here as well. It's true he has just 2 total attempts in the the playoffs, but the Niners were also down early in those games and he didn't have many chances for FG's as both games turned into shootouts. That wont happen here. this will be a close game and FG's will b important. I say he gets at least 2.
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Total Receptions - Randy Moss - Over 2.5 Receptions
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Randy will need to be involved in this one for the Niners to win the game. he did have 3 receptions in 3 of his last 6 games and a couple of dropped passes kept him from having more over that stretch. I expect him to be thown to at least 5 or 6 time with at lest 4 catches.
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What will happen first for San Francisco -- Touchdown or Punt? --- Punt -140
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The first quarter should be a real feeling out process for both teams and that has me expecting a punt from San Fran before they score a touchdown. The Niners have also gotten off to slow starts in the post season and I expect them to do so here as well.
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What will happen first for Baltimore -- Touchdown or Punt? -- (Punt -165)
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Just like I said in my Niners prop article I expect both teams to be a bit conservative in the first quarter. This usually happens in big games with two solid defenses on the field. The Niners defense is one of the best in the league and should make Baltimore punt before they get a touchdown.
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Ravens Total Rushing Yards - Under 104
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Baltimore will attempt to utilize the running game, but how effective can they be? The Ravens are 11th in rushing the ball, putting up 118.8 ypg, but this Niners defense checks in at 4th vs the run, allowing just 94.2 ypg. San Fran is also 4th in the league in ypa allowed at 3.8. Will be tough for Baltimore to get 100+ yards on the ground in this game.
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Joe Flacco Touchdown Passes - Under 1.5 (Even)
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This game will be all about defense and I just don't see Flacco being able to notch 2 TD passes in this one. The Niners pass defense is 4th in the league and they are 10th in the league in pass touchdowns allowed per game (1.3). Im also expecting a few more FG's than TD's from Baltimore as this should be more of a defensive battle. Look for him to get POSSIBLY one TD pass.
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Bernard Pierce - Total Rushing Attempts - Over 7 (-165)
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Ray Rice is the featured back for the Ravens, but Bernard is also an important part of their offense. The Ravens have use him allot more down the stretch as had 8 or more attempts in 7 of their last 9 games, while also averaging 12.6 rushing attempts per game in their last 5 games. The Ravens will need to mix it up between Rice and Pierce and that gives him an excellent shot at 8+ attempts in this game.
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Justin Tucker - Total Field Goals Made - Over 1.5 (-130)
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Justin Tucker has hit 90% of his FG attempts this year and I see him having at least 3 shots at a FG in this one. The Niners have been solid in the red zone this year and I feel that Baltimore will heve to settle for at least 2 FG's in that zone. I look for him to possibly have 3 FG's in this one.
Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ravens / 49ers Over 47½FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco has gone from one of the best defensive teams in the league to looking awfully susceptible the last part of the year. This team gave up 34 to New England, 42 to Seattle, 31 to Green Bay, and 24 to Atlanta in their last four games against playoff caliber teams so it's no surprise they have now gone OVER the total in six straight games. This team is still winning games since Kaepernick has breathed fresh air into the offense, allowing them to move the ball both through the air and on the ground.
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Baltimore is in the same boat. Flacco has thrown for 235+ in each of the playoff games and the Ravens have scored 24+ in all three. Their defense isn't quite as good as their reputation. New England had plenty of chances to score against them two weeks ago and just couldn't convert.
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Both of these teams are under-rated offensively and over-rated defensively right now, so I'm taking the OVER.
Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Manhattan -8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Manhattan has won and covered the last 3 times as a home favorite from 6.5 to -9. They are 4-0 ats with 1 or less day of rest and will face a St. Peters team that is 1-5 ats vs teams who average 65 or less points and 0-5 to the spread vs teams that are .500 or less. They play this one with home loss revenge. However they have not fared well of late in that role going 0-4 straight up and ats. They have also failed to cover 8 of 10 in conference games. So we will lay the points with Manhattan. On Sunday its the 6* Super Bowl Play with a Big Analysis that's over 2 pages long and contains cutting edge material you wont find anywhere else. There are 24 indicators 3 are 22-1,12-0 and 40-6 Power systems. NFL Top plays have cashed 20 of 26 including both Championship games and we nailed the 6* last season on The Giants. NBA top plays keep rolling with an easy winner on Minnesota.