Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 5

DUNKEL INDEX

Michigan at Michigan State
The Spartans look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 home games. Michigan State is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has he Spartans favored by 10 1/2.Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-8 1/2)

Game 805-806: West Virginia at Providence (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 66.695; Providence 59.148
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 7 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 4 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 807-808: Michigan at Michigan State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 67.933; Michigan State 78.413
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 8 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick Michigan State (-8 1/2); Over

Game 809-810: Minnesota at Nebraska (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 65.004; Nebraska 62.177
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3; 128
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1; 123
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-1); Over

Game 811-812: Youngstown State at Loyola-Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Youngstown State 51.742; Loyola-Chicago 49.059
Dunkel Line: Youngstown State by 2 1/2; 116
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 4; 118
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (+4); Under

Game 813-814: Cleveland State at Illinois Chicago (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 61.429; Illinois-Chicago 54.162
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 9 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (+9 1/2); Under

Game 815-816: Villanova at Pittsburgh (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 60.996; Pittsburgh 70.725
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 9 1/2; 153
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 148
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-8); Over

Game 817-818: Miami (FL) at Duke (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 62.066; Duke 75.909
Dunkel Line: Duke by 14; 144
Vegas Line: Duke by 11 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-11 1/2); Under

Game 819-820: Northwestern at Illinois (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.207; Illinois 70.364
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 8; 133
Vegas Line: Illinois by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-6); Over

Game 821-822: Niagara at Rider (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 49.251; Rider 57.154
Dunkel Line: Rider by 8; 147
Vegas Line: Rider by 5 1/2; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rider (-5 1/2); Under

Game 823-824: Loyola-MD at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 57.493; St. Peter's 47.096
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 10 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 8 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-8 1/2); Over

Game 825-826: Siena at Fairfield (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.207; Fairfield 57.683
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 11; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (+11); Over

Otto Sports

Victor Cruz Receptions
Play: Over 5.5

No player in the NFL was targeted more by his quarterback over the final half of the season than the New York Giants’ Victor Cruz. Eli Manning threw the ball his way a remarkable 125 times in games from Week 8 up to the Super Bowl. Cruz, in turn, has responded with a boat load of receptions. Nine times over the last 13 games the wideout has had at least six receptions which would be good enough to cash this prop bet in the Super Bowl.

One of those nine games came against this same opponent. Back in their Week 9 meeting with New England, Cruz finished with six catches for 91 yards. The speedy wide receiver arguably has a better matchup in order to post similar or better numbers this week with the fast turf in Indy and no wind conditions to deal with. And Cruz could see more targets in this game simply because Hakeem Nicks is still dealing with a shoulder injury.

Quietly, Cruz has become the favorite target of Eli Manning and led the team in receptions and I don’t expect that to change in the big game. Look for Cruz to get his targets and hit the magic number of six here this Sunday.

Total Kickoff Returns
Play: Under 6.5

New York Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes doesn’t have the strongest leg in the NFL. In 2010 the Giants averaged a touchback on just 8.2% of all kickoffs. It certainly doesn’t help that the Giants also play many games in poor weather and in plenty of outdoor stadiums. But this history actually helps us this Sunday with Tynes now indoors and kicking off from the 35-yard line.

Consider this; since the new rule was adopted prior to the season the Giants have averaged a touchback on 38.4% of all kickoffs. That’s a significant improvement and shows Tynes has the leg to get it deep with that extra five yard boost from the rulebook. But that’s not the most significant factor in play this weekend. In the three games the Giants played indoors they averaged a touchback on a whopping 60% of all kickoffs!

If there was one player we needed to really worry about with this prop it was Tynes and I think the numbers bear out that he should be no issue at all.

New England kicker Gostkowski has a much stronger leg and while we don’t have the indoor data to verify (the Pats played no indoor games) I would hypothesize similar type of improvements from him as well. He also tends to play in some lousy conditions but even so has ranked solidly in the touchback department the past couple of years (some of the overall data will be skewed by Shane Graham’s kickoffs after Gostkowski went down with injury last season). Last week the Pats’ leg man sent five of his six kickoffs for touchbacks against the Ravens. He has more than enough leg to kick in these perfect conditions in Indy.

I believe it’s reasonable to project between 60% and 65% of the kickoffs going for touchbacks this week. Couple that with my thought process on this game being slightly lower scoring than the market number (and projecting fewer possessions/kickoffs as such) I think there is a wealth of value on the UNDER total kickoff returns.

Five Prop Bets for a Close Game
Grantland.com

Will there be overtime?
Yes: +800
No: -1100

Let's start with a simple one and provide a quick reminder of how these odds work. All of the lines we're working with in this piece are within the context of a $100 bet. A bet of $100 on +800 odds, like the "Yes" bet here, means that you'll be betting $100 to receive $800 in profit (plus your original $100 back). Odds of -1100 mean that you'll need to bet $1,100 to win $100; a winning bet of $100 on "No" will return just $9.09 in profit.

What do those odds mean? Well, a line of +800 implies that the game will go to overtime 11.1 percent of the time, while the -1100 line on the other side implies that it will finish in regulation 91.7 percent of the time. Astute readers will note that those two figures add up to 102.8 percent, which is impossible. That extra 2.8 percent is Vegas's juice, the "vig" that the sportsbook extracts for taking the action. We can adjust each of those figures to account for the juice by dividing each figure by 102.8 percent, so the juice-free probability that the game will go into overtime, according to this line, is 10.8 percent.

Vegas's goal isn't to set a perfectly accurate line. It's to set the line in such a way that money will come in evenly on either side of the bet, which should allow them to make a profit by virtue of that 2.8 percent vig. Over the past five years, just 5.8 percent of regular-season games have gone into overtime. The playoffs should eliminate some of the talent mismatches and produce closer games (and with it, more overtimes), but since 1990, only 7.4 percent of playoff games have gone into overtime, and the Super Bowl has never once gone into overtime.

The oddsmakers aren't stupid, of course; they know about those numbers, too. The reality of betting, though, is that they're likely to receive more action on the underdog bet from people hoping to hit for a big payout than they are from those bettors willing to assume a large risk just to ensure a small profit. It's more fun to bet on overtime, but it's going to be far more profitable to bet on a game that ends during regulation.

What will be the largest lead of the game by either team?
Over 13.5 points: -160
Under 13.5 points: +140

In the first game between these two teams earlier this season, the largest lead was 10 points. Super Bowl XLII was even tighter; there, the largest lead of the game was four points. On the other hand, such a lead occurred in 11 of New England's other 17 games this season, and it happened in nine of New York's other 18 games. If you think that this game ends up staying close throughout, well, the +140 looks pretty tasty.

Will the game be decided by exactly three points?
Yes: +375
No: -450

The line for this game sees the Patriots favored by three points. The Spreadapedia database tells us that there have been 587 games since 2000 where one team was favored by exactly three points. One hundred fourteen of those games ended with one team or the other winning by exactly three points. That's 19.4 percent of games just like this one. The odds declare that this game will end with a three-point margin … 20.5 percent of the time. This one seems like it lacks value on either side.

Will the game be tied after 0-0?
Yes: +115
No: -135

This bet asks you whether the game will be tied at any point after the first score. There's a catch, though: The tie has to come after an extra point or two-point conversion is scored. So if the Giants go up 6-0 on two Lawrence Tynes field goals and the Patriots score a touchdown to make it 6-6 before kicking the extra point, that tie doesn't count. This did happen at 10-10 during the first game, but again, it seems like a referendum on whether you think the game is going to be close or not.

What will the final score of the game be?
Touchdown: -240
Any other score: +200

A close game would seem to favor a field goal serving as the final score, since teams playing in a blowout are unlikely to take three points when they need a lot more than three to catch up. Then again, each of the last two games between these two have ended in touchdowns, and the Pats-Ravens nail-biter last weekend culminated in Tom Brady's touchdown run. This is essentially a prop for nostalgic Pats fans wistful for the days of Adam Vinatieri.

Five Prop Bets for a Shootout

How many points will the two teams combine to score?
Over 62.5 points: +200
Over 69.5 points: +400

This game's listed point total is currently at 55 points, which is the second-highest point total for a Super Bowl since 1987.1 There were only four games in 2011 to hit kickoff with a total of 55 points or higher, and just one — the 45-28 playoff win by the Saints over the Lions — went over its listed total. Regardless of the pregame line, just 9.3 percent of games went over 62.5 points, while 4.7 percent went over 69.5 points. Unless you have some serious premonition that a 41-35 thriller is coming (or you expect the teams to combine for 12 points in overtime), you might just want to stick with going over the standard total of 55.

Will either team score in the first 5.5 minutes of the game?
Yes: +105
No: -125

In Week 9, these two teams squared off in Foxborough and did not score during the first 5.5 minutes of the game. They did not score during the second 5.5 minutes of the game, or the third … they didn't score once the entire first half. Granted, they promptly went and scored 44 points in a wild second half, and they've had plenty of time to install their scripted plays, so you can probably talk yourself into this one. Such a score has only happened in three of the past 10 Super Bowls, though, and the Giants took 9:59 off the clock on their opening drive in Super Bowl XLII before kicking a field goal.

How long will the longest touchdown of the game be?
Over 49.5 yards: -110
Under 49.5 yards: -110

If neither team scores a touchdown, this bet pushes, which means that the initial investment is returned to bettors without any profit or loss. (If you think that's going to happen, well, wait until we get to that bet a little later.)

These teams have only combined to score 11 touchdowns of 50 yards or more in 37 games this season while allowing just five (in four distinct games). As tempting as it is to want to see Victor Cruz streaking off into the distance as a trail of Patriots wide receivers and special teamers chase him in vain, the under seems like the stronger play here.

How many touchdowns will the two teams combine to score?
Over 6.5 touchdowns: +105
Under 6.5 touchdowns: -125

Through the first 16 weeks of the season (in other words, with starters in place), teams only scored seven or more touchdowns 21.7 percent of the time. This would again seem to lean toward an obvious under, but the feat happened in 13 of the 30 Giants and Patriots games, so maybe there's more upside here than it might seem. Remember that the Patriots have the fourth-best red zone offense in football, while the Giants are ninth. The Pats and Giants rank 17th and 19th, respectively, in red zone defense.

Will at least one quarter be scoreless?
Yes: +350
No: -420

Two quarters were scoreless in the first game! Then again, New England's had just one scoreless quarter (the fourth versus the Redskins) in 40 chances since, while the Giants have just one in their last 32 quarters. It's probably safe to take the "No" bet here, even at -420 odds.

Five Prop Bets for a Big Giants Win

Alternate Giants Lines
Giants -3.5: +210
Giants -7.5: +400
Giants -10.5: +550
Giants -14.5: +800

Don't want to take the points with the initial line of Giants +3? Think you're about to see Eli wipe Brady's face in the dirt for four quarters? Well, you can put your money where your mouth is with one of these alternate lines, each of which add a half-point to the four key numbers in football betting. For those who aren't familiar, the listed line of Giants +3 -110 means that a bet on the Giants wins if they win the game outright or lose by fewer than three points, is a push if the Giants lose by three, and loses if the Giants are outscored by four or more points. That line pays out a profit of $110 for every $100 you bet if you win, so a bet of $100 results in $90.91 in profit with a win.

These alternate lines, on the other hand, allow you to bet on the Giants as favorites with superior payouts as the possible prize. If you're brave enough to bet on the Giants -7.5, you're saying that the Giants will not just win outright, but prevail by eight or more points. If they do that, you'll get $400 in profit back for your $100 bet.

If you're eyeing that 14.5 figure longingly, consider that three-point underdogs have won by 15 or more points just over 4 percent of the time since 2000. The last time a Super Bowl underdog won by that large of a margin was 2003, when the 3.5-point dogs coached by Jon Gruden in Tampa Bay beat the Raiders by 27 points.

In which half will Eli Manning accrue more gross passing yards?
First Half: +115
Second Half: -135

This is a bet you can take advantage of if your read on the Giants winning by a large margin is correct. 53.4 percent of Eli Manning's passing yards during the regular season this year came during the second half, which is part of the reason why this line is slightly tilted toward the second half. The other part is that the Giants are underdogs and, as a result, likely to be trailing during the second half. When teams trail, they throw the ball to try and score quickly; when they're in the lead, they run the ball and try to eat up the clock. In the playoff win over the Packers, as an example, Manning had the lead for most of the second half and threw just nine times after 24 first-half attempts. If the Giants get out to an early lead, they'll run the ball up and down the field during the latter stages of the game. With that in mind, a hefty Giants victory would point to the +115 bet as a superior option.

How many carries will Brandon Jacobs have?
Over 7.5: +105
Under 7.5: -125

This goes in concert with the Manning bet. A reduction in second-half passing means more carries for Jacobs (and Ahmad Bradshaw), which should bump him well over the eight-carry total.

How many different Giants will score?
Over 3.5: -140
Under 3.5: +120

No, a field goal doesn't count as half of a score; it counts as a whole one! With this bet, you get to include any points accrued by the kicker and by players on two-point conversions, but Eli Manning needs to score as a runner (or, gulp, a receiver) to qualify. So three touchdowns by three different players would kick this bet into the win column. If the Giants win by any sort of margin in this game, it's hard to imagine that this bet wouldn't go over.

How many points will the Giants win by?
1-4: +500
5-8: +700
9-12: +1000
13-16: +1000
17-20: +1500
21-24: +3000
25-28: +5000
29-33: +10000
34-38: +10000
39 or more: +7500

Imagine, if you will, a world where the Giants are up 40 points with three minutes left to go in Super Bowl XLVI. Your fellow Giants fan friends have been celebrating for the better part of two hours, ever since Tom Brady fell on his arm halfway through the first quarter and has mysteriously tried to throw all his passes underhand ever since. Every Super Bowl party more than an hour away from a New Jersey Turnpike exit has ended prematurely, as millions of people nationwide have simultaneously gotten out of their chairs, yawned, stretched, and said, "Well, I've got to get up early for work tomorrow." You, on the other hand? You are glued to the television as Brian Hoyer tries to march the Patriots down the field for an otherwise-meaningless touchdown, turning your incredible $7,500 profit on the Giants winning by 39 points or more into the worst $100 loss of your life. You probably don't want to be in that situation, right?

Five Prop Bets for a Big Patriots Win

Alternate Patriots Lines
Patriots -7.5: +195
Patriots -10.5: +290
Patriots -14.5: +500
Patriots -17.5: +750

Just like the Giants, you can bet on a Patriots blowout if your heart is truly motivated to do so. Did you bet on the Patriots -12 in Super Bowl XLII and think that they have come to get revenge on your behalf? Getting +290 on Patriots -10.5 might be for you, then. The problem with making this sort of bet, to me, is that the Patriots' secondary can't be expected to stop the Giants to score in the dying stages of a blowout. The backdoor cover on a line like -14.5 or -17.5 is way too strong of a possibility.

How many carries will BenJarvus Green-Ellis have?
Over 13.0: +115
Under 13.0: -135

Green-Ellis has averaged 12.1 carries per game in Patriots wins this season and nine carries in the three New England losses. We're not arguing cause and effect here, of course, but that the Patriots tend to turn to guys like Danny Woodhead when they are behind and need to throw to catch up. Remember — Birdman outed the Law Firm as his nephew before offering to bet $5 million on the Patriots against anybody who would take his action. And that dude has a platinum football field. This line might move quickly.

What will happen first?
Patriots score: -120
Patriots punt: EVEN

Well, this one's a poser. The Patriots have played 18 games this year, including their two playoff contests, and scored before punting in nine of them. Interestingly, though, that's subject to a big first-half/second-half split. Despite the fact that they're on a 10-game winning streak, the Pats have scored before punting in just four of those games, and the Giants forced them into four punts before New England scored against them in Week 9.

Will the Patriots score in all four quarters?
Yes: +130
No: -150

The Patriots have done this in 17 of 35 games over the past two seasons, but the Giants represent a better pass defense than most of that opposition, and they held the Patriots scoreless for two quarters during the first tilt. In a big Patriots win, though, it seems unlikely that Belichick would take his starters out or stop throwing the ball. Remember what he did to Tim Tebow.

Who will score more points?
Patriots during the first half +12.5: -110
Giants during the entire game -12.5: -110

Here's a fun challenge. This spread adds 12.5 points to the Patriots' first-half point total and then compares it to the number of points put up by the Giants through the entire game. If the Patriots who dropped 31 first-half points on the Broncos in the first half during the divisional round show up, you're going to look real smart. If the ones who couldn't even put a field goal through the uprights against the Giants during the first half of Week 9 make an appearance, though, you will spend halftime stewing and wishing you had bet on the Puppy Bowl.2

Five Prop Bets for a Healthy (or Unhealthy) Rob Gronkowski

Let's all play "How much do you believe Rob Gronkowski's dad?" If you really trust Mr. Gronk and believe that his son suffered a high ankle sprain in the victory over the Ravens, well, there's not going to be much production from Gronkowski during the Super Bowl. We've seen high ankle sprains keep players like Adrian Peterson out for weeks and severely limit the effectiveness of Ben Roethlisberger this season, and while Gronkowski gets two weeks to rest, a high ankle sprain ensures that he won't be anywhere near 100 percent on Sunday.

Now, for the purposes of these bets, it's important that Gronkowski plays; all bets are refunded if Gronkowski is inactive. But if he suits up and has a very quiet day, you'll want to play the under on every one of these bets. All of these are listed with the original odds from the LVH, but don't be surprised if they shift dramatically during the week, depending upon reports of how healthy (or unhealthy) Gronkowski is.

How many receptions will Rob Gronkowski have?
Over 5.5: -145
Under 5.5: +125

You get the idea.

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown?
Yes: -160
No: +140

In Gronkowski's first pro game, he caught one pass for one yard. Yes, of course, it was a touchdown. You could remove his ankle and he's still probably going to catch a touchdown, right?

Will Rob Gronkowski score a touchdown in the first half?
Yes: +175
No: -200

These two bets, taken together, are a very weird mix. The given likelihood of Gronkowski scoring a touchdown in the first half is just 35.3 percent, but his odds of scoring a touchdown in the game are at 59.6 percent. Those two numbers imply that Gronkowski will score in the second half about 92.1 percent of the time, and that a bet on Gronkowski not scoring in the second half would have true odds of about +1166 or so. I hope somebody offers that.

How many receiving yards will Rob Gronkowski accrue?
0-10: +1200
11-20: +1000
21-30: +800
31-40: +800
41-50: +800
51-60: +700
61-70: +700
71-80: +700
81-90: +700
91-100: +800
101-110: +1200
111-120 or 121-130: +2000
131-140: +2500
141-150: +3000
151-160: +5000
161-170: +6000
171-185: +7500
186-200: +7500
201 or more: +5000

If Rob Gronkowski goes for 201 or more yards in the Super Bowl, the first round of the 2012 NFL draft will consist of 32 tight ends, selected in descending order of their relationship with pornography.

How many field goals will Stephen Gostkowski make?
Over 1.5: EVEN
Under 1.5: -120

And this is your final counterbet. If you think Gronkowski is hurt, you can take the under receptions bet, choose "No" for the touchdown props, go for some of the lower totals on the yardage scale, and then assume that Gronkowski's absence will hurt the Patriots in the red zone. That should produce two or more field goals for Gostkowski.

Five Possibilities (for Each Team) as to Which Player Scores First

This bet is as simple as can be. Whoever picks up the first touchdown gets paid, and everyone else loses. Quarterbacks only win if they run the ball in or catch a pass (gulp, still), as the receiver gets credit for the touchdown in this scenario. We've identified five interesting candidates for each team and have two other bets at the bottom.

Which player will score the first touchdown of Super Bowl XLVI?
Hakeem Nicks: +700
Victor Cruz: +800
Ahmad Bradshaw: +900
Brandon Jacobs: +1200
Jake Ballard: +2000

It's customary to list each team's starting running back as the favorite to win this prop, but that's not going to be the case with either team. Nicks and Cruz both stand out as big plays waiting to happen against a pair of overmatched Patriots cornerbacks, and depending on the situation near the goal line, Jacobs is a viable threat to vulture away Bradshaw's touchdown (but not enough of one to get better odds, considering that Bradshaw got 20 of the 25 carries between the two last week). With that in mind, what about Ballard? The starting tight end should be healthier with two weeks' rest, and he caught a touchdown against the Pats during the first game.

Rob Gronkowski: +500
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: +900
Tom Brady: +1800
Danny Woodhead: +3000
Chad Ochocinco: +4000

Let's keep it interesting and assume that Gronkowski is a nonfactor because of the ankle. That leaves some very viable candidates up and down the lineup. Green-Ellis is the featured back in short yardage, but Woodhead should see more snaps as a pass blocker and could score on a draw if the Patriots go no-huddle for their opening drive. Then again, Woodhead scored all of one touchdown this year, so it's not extremely likely. A Brady sneak would do the trick, but imagine the bragging rights you would have if you successfully bet on a Chad Ochocinco touchdown to start the Super Bowl and won? That would put you right up there with the guys who made it to every Super Bowl as far as exclusive fraternities.

Field : +800
No Touchdown Scored: +50000

Each team has nine players listed within the props before the "field" bet kicks in, so basically, we're looking at a touchdown by a defensive player, a return touchdown, or a fumble recovery in the end zone by an offensive lineman. More excitingly, here's where you get to back that prediction about no touchdowns being scored from earlier on. There aren't many ways for you to turn $100 into a nice new car, but this is certainly one of them. Of course, if this game gets to the fourth quarter without a touchdown being scored, you will probably require medical assistance.

Five Great Frontrunner Prop Bets

These are five prop bets where the favored side of the bet seems like good value, even if the odds are extremely high.

How many kickoff returns will the two teams combine for?
Over 6.5: +145
Under 6.5: -165

This excludes touchbacks, fair catches, and kickoffs that go out of bounds, which is why there's value in going under seven kickoff returns. In their 32 regular-season games this year, the Giants and Patriots averaged a total of 6.3 kickoff returns per game. That's right near the figure listed, which might cause you to lean toward the over, but remember that Super Bowl XLVI will be played in a dome; that should increase kickoff distance and make touchbacks a far more likely proposition. Take Adam Vinatieri, who spent three years on kickoff duty with the Colts from 2006-08 after he moved over from New England. During his final three years with the Patriots, Vinatieri produced touchbacks on 7.1 percent of his kicks and averaged 62.5 yards per kickoff; despite naturally declining in leg strength because of his age, after he moved to Indianapolis, Vinatieri averaged 65.3 yards per kickoff and garnered touchbacks 11.1 percent of the time.

Will Zoltan Mesko punt a touchback?
Yes: +210
No: -250

The Patriots are an aggressive team on fourth down and are wildly successful on offense, and when Mesko punts, he's a sound directional kicker. That produces a paucity of touchbacks. How few? Mesko has just 10 touchbacks on 123 attempts in 35 career NFL games.

Will there be a safety?
Yes: +900
No: -1300

There are about seven or eight safeties each year in the NFL. My unofficial count this year is eight, but for some reason, six of them involved these two teams in one way or another. Is that meaningful when it comes to predicting the likelihood of a safety in the Super Bowl? Absolutely not. You're looking at about a 3 percent chance of a safety happening, which means that the odds for "Yes" should be something like +3233. Betting "No" here, even at -1300, is one of the best prop bets you can make this year. Of course, you will have to risk $100 to win $7.69 in the process.

Will Chad Ochocinco catch a pass?
Yes: +130
No: -150

Ochocinco has to be active for this bet to actually play, which is the tricky part. If he suits up, though, it's difficult to imagine that he'll see more than one or two targets, and since he lines up almost exclusively on the outside, that means a lot of attention from …

Will Corey Webster intercept a pass?
Yes: +400
No: -500

The Giants' best cornerback likely won't spend a ton of time in the slot, which means that he gets to spend his day working against the Ochocincos and Deion Branchs of the world. Brady's game plan will unquestionably revolve around avoiding him while attacking the weaker links in the New York secondary.

Five Prop Bets That Say You Have a Problem

Which team will accrue more penalty yards?
Giants: -110
Patriots: -110

One good way to find prop bets that suggest you might have a problem is when Vegas just lists two sides without a spread at -110. What that basically says is, "We don't know what the right side is here, but we also know you don't know, and we're going to collect vig while you and your buddies guess." For what it's worth, the Patriots accrued 815 penalty yards to the Giants' mere 795 during the regular season, but the Giants have been responsible for 163 penalty yards in three playoff games, while the Patriots are at just 25 after two games. People will think less of you if you bet on this!

Which team will use a coach's challenge first?
Giants: -110
Patriots: -110

It's important to note that the team doesn't need to win the challenge, just use it. The Giants used 10 challenges during the regular season and two during the postseason, for an average of 0.63 challenges per game. The Pats used eight during the regular season and haven't used any during the postseason, for an average of 0.44 challenges per game. What do those numbers mean over a sample of 18-19 games? Absolutely nothing. Your girlfriend will use this as a sign that you're not ready to take the next step in your relationship and break up with you if you bet on it.

How will the opening coin toss land?
Heads: -101
Tails: -101

Here's how bad this bet is: Even Vegas feels bad about charging full vig on it. Some offshore books will put each side of this bet at -110, knowing that it's a 50/50 proposition and that they can bank $9 for every $100 that comes in. The LVH has the juice down to 1 percent, but it's still an incredibly stupid bet. You are essentially lighting 1 percent of the money in your wallet on fire if you make this bet.3

How many players will attempt a pass during the game?
Over 2.5: +290
Under 2.5: -350

I can't lie: I love this bet a little bit. The bet here is, essentially, "Will somebody besides Tom Brady or Eli Manning throw a pass?" The Patriots have given Brian Hoyer mop-up work, but we're going to assume that this question basically revolves around the idea that a nonquarterback is going to throw a pass. How rare has that been for these teams? Well, the Patriots haven't had a nonquarterback throw a pass since 2008, when Kevin Faulk threw one, and before that, it was Adam Vinatieri on a fake field goal in 2004. Their last quarterback to throw a pass in the playoffs who didn't have "Brady" on the back of his jersey was Drew Bledsoe. And unless you want to make a joke about Jared Lorenzen, we have to go all the way back to Jeff Feagles in 2006 for a nonquarterback pass attempt from the Giants. That's thousands of chances for a pass by Hakeem Nicks or Aaron Hernandez … and these teams haven't taken it once. Why would they start now? But then again, why would the "Under 2.5" line be so low? Suspicious.

What will the jersey number be of the first player to score a touchdown?
Over 80.5: EVEN
Under 80.5: -120

Few things have made me question my life decisions more than putting together a spreadsheet to answer this question. But I did it, taking every player who has scored for these two teams this year, removing guys who aren't going to play on Sunday, adjusting for the games they played in and missed. It was so fucking stupid on so many levels. But I did it. And in the end, I got an expected number of … 64.4. Great, so an offensive lineman is likely to score on Sunday! In reality, it just suggests that the running backs for the teams are likely a little undervalued here, and that logic only goes further with a possibly-limited Gronkowski (number 87). Go under here, but realize that we're all losers for playing.

Five Player vs. Player Prop Bets

Who will throw an interception first?
Eli Manning: -160
Tom Brady: +140

As I've brought up in the past, a player's interception rate during one year is subject to tons of randomness. These two quarterbacks are a great example. In 2009, Tom Brady's interception rate4 (2.3 percent) was roughly similar to Eli Manning's (2.7 percent). In 2010, Manning (4.6 percent) threw interceptions nearly six times as frequently as Brady (0.8 percent). Using a three-year sample provides a more accurate measure of how these two quarterbacks avoid interceptions, and in a roughly similar number of attempts, Manning has thrown interceptions about twice as frequently as Brady. Eli has just one interception in three playoff games, but remember that he also injured the other team's top cornerback in the last round by throwing a near pick that was awful enough to be picked off by two different people at once.

One other fun reason to bet on Eli here: The Patriots have not won a coin toss and chosen to receive since the game where Tom Brady tore his ACL. Chances are that the Giants will get the ball first, which means an extra possession during the first half, which means a better shot at throwing an interception first.

Who will have more rushing yards?
Eli Manning +2.5 yards: EVEN
Tom Brady -2.5 yards: -120

This, on the other hand, is a battle. The NFL considers quarterback kneels, for some stupid reason, to be part of a player's rushing totals, which is how Eli Manning has 35 carries for 15 yards this year. Tom Brady, meanwhile, has 43 carries for 109 yards. Take out the kneel-downs, and Manning's at 12 carries for 23 yards, while Brady's at 33 for 110. The Patriots passer is clearly more likely to tuck and run with the football, but since his team is favored, Brady is also the favorite to kneel in the fourth quarter and lose two rushing yards. To be honest, we've all probably spent a little too much time debating this one.

Who will have more receiving yards?
Victor Cruz -8.5 yards: -110
Wes Welker +8.5 yards: -110

Here's an old-fashioned challenge bet between two of the league's top three receivers by yardage this year. If you start with Cruz's breakout performance against the Eagles in Week 3 and include the playoffs, the second-year sensation averaged 103.8 yards per game, while Welker's 18-game slate now has him at 93.2 yards per contest. The scary thing? These two teams allow more yardage to number-three wideouts (who typically play in the slot, like Welker and, occasionally, Cruz) than any other pair of teams in football. This one seems destined to come down to one big play, and that would seem to favor Cruz, right?

Who will have more receiving yards?
Travis Beckum +30.5 yards: -110
Deion Branch -30.5 yards: -110

You really want to win a bet with Travis Beckum's name on the ticket? Here's your shot. Webster and company were able to hold Branch to two catches for 21 yards during the first game, and while Beckum went catchless, the spread of 30.5 yards would have made him the winner. In fact, even if Beckum just spent the entire game blocking, Branch would have lost this bet in four of his last eight games. Perhaps this bet will fulfill a scavenger hunt item of some nature for you. If so, congratulations.

Who will score a touchdown first?
Ahmad Bradshaw: -125
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: +105

Well, we know that the Giants are more likely to get the ball first (and, therefore, more likely to score first), but Green-Ellis is just about guaranteed to get the ball near the goal line, while Bradshaw has to contend with Brandon Jacobs. Losing to a Bradshaw touchdown would be one thing, but it would be agonizing to see Jacobs come in and vulture a Bradshaw touchdown to eventually lose this bet. A good rule of thumb in betting, especially when you're (like me) not very good at it: Avoid potentially agonizing situations unless they're setting up to be really profitable.

Five Offshore Entertainment Prop Bets

The Gaming Board in Las Vegas doesn't allow casinos to put up bets on events that aren't directly related to the game or subject to interpretation, or on awards that are determined by a vote (which is why you can't bet on who will win Super Bowl MVP). Fortunately, the Internet is a semilawless land where you can bet on just about anything! Bovada, the rebranded former Bodog, has a number of Super Bowl props available that would never sniff the big boards of Vegas. I've picked five favorites.

Will Kelly Clarkson's bare belly be showing when she sings the national anthem?
Yes: +300

I have to admit that I don't know a lot about Kelly Clarkson. She's in that car commercial. She probably ripped off The Dismemberment Plan. That's about it.

Research tells me that she has experience doing the national anthem both with midriff exposed and without. I am going to guess that the Super Bowl is an austere enough experience for her to keep her belly covered.

What color will Madonna's hair be when she begins the Super Bowl Halftime show?
Blonde: -400
Field: +250

I copied the phrasing of this question, word-for-word, from the Bovada e-mail I was sent. It's very important that I did so because I think it implies something a little terrifying: Bovada expects Madonna to dye her hair during the Super Bowl halftime show. Was that what Prince was doing when he distracted the nation with his, um, guitar?

Will Madonna wear an NFL jersey or shirt at any point during the Super Bowl halftime show?
Yes: +250
No: -400

No way, right?

How many times will Peyton Manning be shown on television during the game?
Over 3.5: -110
Under 3.5: -110

Bovada does not make it clear whether this counts commercials or not. If it does, the over is the lock of the year.

What will the color of the Gatorade dumped on the winning coach be?
Yellow: +175
Orange: +225
Clear/water: +300
Red: +550
Green: +600
Blue: +1000

How can blue be so low when both these teams use blue as the primary color of their uniforms? But then again, who on earth actually likes blue Gatorade? Color branding apparently has not come to Gatorade showers, probably because some teams can't actually get Gatorade in their primary color. It wouldn't have been quite as fun if the Saints doused Sean Payton in Diet Coke or black coffee, I guess.

Five Super Bowl vs. Other Sports Prop Bets

All of these bets are "Who will have more" lines, comparing the total accrued by a player or team in a given category during the Super Bowl to a total accrued in one or more statistical categories by a player or team outside the sport, with some sort of spread built in. They are basically affronts to any sort of higher power, and the amount of time you spend actually considering them is basically an SAT test for a gambling addiction. They are the ultimate prop bets. All references to football players solely consider their performance within the Super Bowl.

Which number will be higher?
Yards of Tom Brady's longest completion -6.5 yards: -110
Combined number of points and rebounds accrued by Kevin Durant against the Spurs on February 4 +6.5 points+rebounds: -110

Guys, we suddenly developed a taste for awful cigars and somehow grew a green visor on our forehead just typing that. That's not normal. In four games against the Spurs since the beginning of the 2010-11 campaign, Kevin Durant's averaged 30 points+rebounds. Tom Brady's longest pass in a game has been below 36.5 yards 15 out of 35 times. The Giants have the pass rush to slow down Brady and prevent big plays, but he should get one off. Then again, Durant's playing a Spurs team that's basically trying to keep their veterans in one piece for the playoffs, and he should be growing as a player. So, in other words, I don't know.

Who will have more points?
Giants +0.5 points: -110
Knicks by the end of the first quarter of their game with the Nets on February 4 -0.5 points: -110

Carmelo Anthony missed last weekend's games, but he should be playing when the Knicks host the Nets on Saturday night. The Knicks score 23.4 points per quarter at a really fast pace and the Nets allow 24.7 points per quarter at a really slow one. I'm going to guess they score 24 points! The over/under for the Giants game implies that the market believes the Giants will score 26 points, so getting the extra half-point, they would be slight favorites here.

Which number will be higher?
Gross passing yards accrued by Tom Brady +63.5 yards: -110
Number of points accrued by the college basketball teams of Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern on February 6 -63.5 points: -110

WHY?

Which number will be higher?
Longest gross punt by Giants or Patriots +13.5 yards: -110
Nick Watney's score in the fourth round of the Phoenix Open on February 5 -13.5 strokes: -110

Nick Watney has to make it to the fourth round of the tournament and complete all 18 holes. If you were one of Nick Watney's buddies and he was out of the running (but still on the right side of the cut) after the second round, wouldn't you bet a ton on the Giants/Patriots line and then come up with some sort of bizarre excuse that required you to fly out to Phoenix and drink profusely with Nick Watney after round three?

Who will have more?
Brandon Jacobs touchdowns: -300
Wayne Rooney goals against Chelsea on February 5: +250

Finally. The last bet. Rooney has to play in the match for the bet to go off, otherwise the bet is canceled and the investment refunded. We don't really understand this one. Chelsea's had a tough defense with Petr Cech in net, but Rooney's averaging .65 goals per game this year, while Jacobs is at .47 touchdowns per game. Maybe the bookmakers are hoping that Rooney comes off the bench and still qualifies for the bet as a substitute, but what, are United going to save him for their Europa League push? Jacobs got five carries last week. This has to be a bet on Rooney.

Accuscore - Super Bowl Prop Picks: Quarterbacks

Eli Manning Proposition Bets
Gross Passing Yards: Over/Under 313.5, -119/102
Total Pass Completions: Over/Under 25, 110/-129
Will Eli throw an interception: Yes/No, -190/161
Total touchdown passes: Over/Under 2.5, 169/-200
Will Eli win Super Bowl MVP: Yes/No, 209/-251
Eli Manning to have more passing yards in: First Half/Second Half + OT, 111/-130

Tom Brady Proposition Bets
Gross Passing Yards: Over/Under 324.5, 117/-137
Total Pass Completions: Over/Under 26, 100/-117
Will Brady throw an interception: Yes/No, -162/138
Total touchdown passes: Over/Under 2.5, 111/-130
What will happen first: Throw a touchdown/Throw an interception, -295/243
Will Brady win Super Bowl MVP: Yes/No, 105/-123

QB Comparison Props
Manning vs. Brady most gross passing yards: 11.5/-11.5, -136/116
Who will throw a touchdown first: Manning/Brady, -103/-113
Who will throw an interception first: Manning/Brady, -149/127
Manning vs. Brady, most touchdown passes: 0.5/-0.5, -129/110

Eli Manning gross passing yards: UNDER 313.5

AccuScore forecasts that Eli Manning will throw for 304.9 yards in the Super Bowl. Manning has a 45.6 percent chance of throwing for 314 yards or more against a Patriots defense that has picked up its play in the playoffs. Manning has been playing extremely well as of late, but I think the Giants will be successful with a balanced offense. When the Giants beat the Patriots in November he threw for 250 yards, but ended up victorious because of an effective running game and solid defense. I’m predicting a similar situation this Sunday.

Eli Manning to have more passing yards in the second half + OT

What makes Eli Manning a successful quarterback is his ability to step up late in the game. All year he has played his best football in the fourth quarter, often leading the Giants to a comeback win. The first half of the Super Bowl will see the two teams testing the waters and figuring out what works. I think the Giants will establish the run early and test the Patriot’s secondary with short passes through the first half. In the second half, Manning will be ready to deal real damage, especially in the fourth quarter when the pressure is on.

Tom Brady total touchdowns: OVER 2.5

Before I get to my thought process I should point out this pick is not backed by the numbers. AccuScore forecasts Tom Brady throwing 2.4 touchdowns, and the probability he throws three or more touchdowns is 44.2 percent. Also, the Giants haven’t given up three passing touchdowns since December 11 when Tony Romo threw four. With all of that in mind, I’m still confident Brady will throw three because of who Brady is. The Pats’ 2007 Super Bowl loss to the Giants still haunts him, and is driving him more than most people realize. I’m expecting to see Brady at his absolute best, which I’m hoping will result in at least three touchdown passes this Sunday.

Will Tom Brady throw an interception: Yes

The probability that Tom Brady throws an interception in the Super Bowl is 56.5 percent, which reflects the late season and playoff trend. Brady has thrown an interception in each of his last three games, including two against the tough Baltimore Ravens defense. The Patriots are not going to be very successful running the ball against the Giants defense, which will force Brady to make things happen in the air. I think he will have a good game, but an interception is likely with all the attempts he will have.

Who will throw an interception first: Eli Manning

The Patriots defense gave up a lot of yards during the season, but they were also good at forcing turnovers. New England’s secondary snagged 23 interceptions during the regular season, which was good for second in the league. In the playoffs the Pats have one interception. Manning is known to take risks, and should have thrown at least one pick against the Niners but was bailed out by the over eager SF secondary. I think both quarterbacks will throw picks, but Manning will win the race to the interception finish line.

Nick "The BookieKiller" Parsons

Receivers and Tight Ends Props

Cruz vs. Welker - Most receiving yards by: Both players must play in game for action (Offense only). Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager. Official stats via NFL.com Any scoring changes after game is official are invalid towards wager.

Victor Cruz -10 receiving yards -110

Wes Welker +10 receiving yards -120

Suggested wager: Victor Cruz -10 receiving yards -110

Reason: While Wes Welker will surely see a few more touches here because of the injury to Rob Gronkowski, Welker is just one of many options for Tom Brady.

Welker (122 receptions, 1,569-yards, 9 TDs, on an average of 12.9 YPC), is utilized more in short crossing slant patterns, which takes advantage of his "quickness".

Victor Cruz on the other hand had a breakout season, with 82 receptions for 1,536 yards and 9 TDs; that's an average of 18.7 yards per catch.

And he is without a doubt Eli Manning's favorite target.

These players are very similar in many respects, each entering the league as undrafted free agents.

“It’s a very fine line,” Cruz said. “It takes a little bit of luck. It takes a lot of skill and a lot of determination, a lot of hard work…. It’s being in the right place at the right time, being with the right team, being at the right moment and making all the necessary plays when you have to.”

Cruz looked dominant in the NFC Championship game vs. the 49ers, collecting 142 receiving yards.

I always recommend caution when playing "prop" wagers, but this one seems pretty solid; good luck this Sunday!

Ben Burns

Given all the thrilling endings we've seen this season, many probably figure that the team which scores last will probably win the Super Bowl. If you think so, you can bet on it. However, you'll have to pay a fairly steep price. I'm currently seeing -206 at Pinnacle.

For a somewhat more modest price, currently -162, one can also make a wager that the team which scores first will win the Super Bowl. Although both teams are certainly capable of erasing an early deficit, I feel this one offers somewhat better value.

Looking at the recent Super Bowls and we find that the team which scored first won three of the last four. Last year, Green Bay scored first and won. The previous season, Indianapolis scored first but New Orleans won. In 2008/09, Pittsburgh scored first and won. The previous year, in the first meeting between these teams, the Giants scored first and won.

While I generally don't get too carried away with prop bets, I won't be surprised if the team (hopefully my team!) which scores first goes on to win the big game once again.

Accuscore

Ahmad Bradshaw longest rush: OVER 16.5 yards

I like the over pick for this proposition bet because of recent history. In his last six games, including the playoffs, Bradshaw has had a run of 17 yards or longer in every game but one. The one game where he failed was in the NFC championship game against the best rush defense in the league in the San Francisco 49ers. It should be noted that the Patriots held Ray Rice to a 12 yard run in the AFC championship game. However, the Ravens were a run heavy team that lacked a truly dangerous receiving threat. Eli Manning will force the Pats to respect the pass, giving Bradshaw room to run.

Will BenJarvus Green-Ellis score a touchdown: Yes

The line has no as the likelier outcome. AccuScore’s forecast has Green-Ellis scoring 0.6 rushing touchdowns in the game, which makes this pick a toss-up. I like Green-Ellis’ touchdown chances in the Super Bowl because of his success against a very good run defense in the Baltimore Ravens. In the AFC championship game he rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown on just 15 carries. The Patriots’ passing game opens up holes for the running game, especially in the red zone. Also, Green-Ellis has score four touchdowns in his last five games, so he gets plenty of action within the goal line.

Bradshaw vs. Green-Ellis longer rush in game: Bradshaw

BenJarvus Green-Ellis isn’t the type of running back to bust out a 50-yard run. In fact, his longest rush of the year was 18 yards against the Giants back in November. Bradshaw isn’t a super explosive back either, but he is more than capable of grabbing a bunch of yards at once. Over the season and the playoffs, Bradshaw’s longest rush in a game was over 20 yards five times and over 30 yards three times. Assuming Bradshaw doesn’t get sidelined with an injury, I like his chances this Sunday.

Accuscore

Victor Cruz Under 88.5 receiving yards (-106)

The betting odds imply a probability of 51.5 percent. AccuScore simulations have that number closer to 60 percent with Cruz averaging 77.7 yards per outing. That number is virtually identical to that of Hakeem Nicks which means both have almost an equal chance of being the top target for the Giants. While Cruz is without a doubt an explosive receiver, Eli Manning will has several targets on the outside and it is just as likely for somebody else to lead the team in receiving for a one game outing.

Wes Welker Over 78.5 receiving yards (-114)

Welker appears to be slightly undervalued looking at the prop bet lines because of the focus on Hernandez and Gronkowski. The terrific Giants receiving crew also appears to be diverting some attention away from Welker, but it was the slot receiver that led the league in catches and was second in yardage during the regular season. While that has tailed off somewhat in the playoffs it is good to remember that the Patriots only played twice because of the opening round bye, and the Denver game was a complete rout. Welker averages 96 yards per simulation, and top 80 receiving yards 61.1 percent of the time. The -114 line only implies 53.3 percent providing about 8 percent edge.

Hakeem Nicks Will Score a TD (+105)

Looking at the projections, Nicks is the most likely player in this game to score a touchdown averaging 0.7 per simulation. As a comparison, Gronkowski averages 0.5, Manningham 0.5 Hernandez 0.4, and Cruz 0.4. The +105 line translates into 48.8 percent. AccuScore says Nicks is 52.4 percent likely to catch a touchdown Sunday.

Aaron Hernandez Under 3 Rush Attempts (-132)

One of the most interesting wrinkles the Patriots have utilized this postseason is running Hernandez out of the backfield instead of throwing him a pass. They have done this eight times so far in the playoffs, but AccuScore projects him to run the ball just 1.4 times in the Super Bowl. He has under 3 total rushes in 82.7 percent of simulations while the -132 betting line actually translates into 56.9 percent giving the bettor a significant edge.

Aaron Hernandez Under 5.5 Pass Receptions (+102)

AccuScore simulations say Hernandez will go Under 5.5 receptions 74 percent of the time. The +102 line implies a probability of 49.5 percent again creating value for the bettor.

Cruz vs. Welker – Most receiving yards: Welker +10 yards (-112)

For all of Victor Cruz’s brilliance this season, it’s easy to overlook that Welker outgained Cruz by 33 yards during the regular season and scored the same number of touchdowns (9). While Cruz has had the better postseason, 10 yards is a lot to give to the most consistent yardage weapon in the NFL. Average simulations have Welker outgaining Cruz 96.0 to 77.7. Welker is a great value getting 10 yards against Cruz.

Wunderdog

Highest-Scoring Half - 2nd -110

Once again we look to take advantage of oddsmaker error in a prop bet on which they have mis-calculated. Which half of football games see more scoring? So far this season, we have seen a virtual dead-heat with 22.2 points being scored on average in the first half and 22.3 scored in the second half of games. So, this line is set about right according to that. But we need to dig deeper. In 45 Super Bowls, the average score for the first and second halves, respectively, has been 21.42 and 24.13. So we see that the second half average score is 13% higher. The second half has been the highest scoring half in 28 of the 45 Super Bowls (62.2%). Fair odds on a 62.2% bet are -165. But we get -110 here. Now have things changed over the past 45 years? Yes they have. The discrepancy has become more pronounced. In the last 20 years, the scoring has been as follows: First half = 22.25, Second half = 28.25. That's a 27% difference in points! In the last 13 years, the second half has been thehighest scoring half 11 times (85%). And, that includes a fluke pick-6 last year in the first quarter. Without that, we might have seen the 12th time in 13 years that the 2nd half has outscored the first half. So, getting -110 odds on this bet provides a lot of value for a bet.

Teddy Covers

First kickoff to result in a touchback?
Recommendation: Yes -200

This bet is still worth making at -200 or better, and it’s an interesting handicap. The Patriots have a strong tendency to defer when they win the opening coin toss, while the Giants’ prevailing tendency is to get the ball first when they win the toss. As a result, chances are pretty good that it’s going to be Stephen Gostkowski with the opening kickoff, not Lawrence Tynes. Gostkowski is a touchback type kicker with a big leg and the adrenaline will most assuredly be flowing for that opening kick. The Giants don’t attempt many kickoff returns from deep in their own end zone – without a strong return game, they are quite comfortable taking the ball at the 20-yard line. And the pristine conditions inside Lucas Oil Stadium have produced touchbacks on 76% of the kickoffs for the full season. Put it all together and we’re getting a 3:1 favorite while laying 2:1 or less to do it.

Rob Veno

NY Giants safety Kenny Phillips Tackles+Assists
Recommendation: Over 5 -135

Willing to play New York Giants strong safety Kenny Phillips at this number against the Patriots offense which is tailor made for tackles at this position. The short to intermediate portions of the field play prominent roles in New England’s tight end heavy scheme which should make Phillips very active. In the first contest between these teams, he recorded six tackles and two assists which is an indicator of how involved the strong safety position is against New England. In the AFC Championship game a couple weeks ago, Baltimore Ravens strong safety Bernard Pollard led his team with seven tackles and added five assists. New England’s no huddle offense generated 73 total plays back in Week 9 when these teams met and their average of 65.6 gives Phillips ample opportunities to exceed this number.

Rob Veno

Will each team have the lead in the first half?
Recommendation: Yes +105

In what figures to be a back and forth contest from the outset, the plus end of this prop bet is especially attractive. There’s a strong possibility that this game could see each of these teams have the lead in the first two series. It’s interesting to note that six of the eight Patriots away games this season have seen each team have a lead in the first half. That’s quite a contrast from their 10 home games in which only once did both teams have the first half lead. The drastic difference in their home-road performances adds a very positive angle to this play. Super Bowls the last six years have seen this prop have streaky results going 3-0 from 2006-08 and 0-3 from 2009-11. For this prop play, it’s helpful to have a first quarter field goal by one side so the team scores don’t run parallel and the Patriots have had a first quarter field goal in eight of their last 10. Since these offenses are more than capable of responding to a score, this game should see each team have the lead at some point in the first half.

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Giants +125 over New England

There is a reason they put erasers on pencils. People make mistakes. Contrary to popular belief, odds makers are not exempt. Regardless of the outcome of Super Bowl XLVI, the folks that set the line appear to have erred here. Granted, with the Patriots entering this gargantuan game after an efficient 13-3 regular season mark, compared to the Giants’ 9-7 season, riding a 10-game winning streak and with three championship rings already adorning the fingers of QB Tom Brady and coach Bill Belichick tandem, it is comprehensible as to why New England would be listed as the favorite in this game.

However, the public has wised up and braved up. No longer can they be intimidated by the cunning and crafty capabilities of Brady and Belichick. John Q. Bettor can see beneath the surface and when they scratched through it here, they found reason to jump all over the underdog Giants the moment a pointspread was posted.

Let’s not take anything away from the Patriots. With their future Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm, they are always dangerous. Brady threw for a staggering 5239 yards this season. Not only is it a remarkable achievement, No. 12 does it without having any true wide receivers to throw to. Instead, the Pats work their passing game closer to the front line as TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez have become huge and productive weapons while slot receiver Wes Welker continued to put up crazy numbers, including 122 receptions. With a stable running attack and the passing prowess of this unit, the Pats scored 30 or more points 12 times this season.

Despite the gaudy numbers, there are some offensive issues on the New England side. Most notably is Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain. As of Wednesday, the massive tight end had not taken the field for any practices. Even if he is allowed to go, how effective will he be? Of Brady’s 39 touchdown passes on the year, 17 of them went to Gronk. You can’t simply slot in another guy to replace that type of production.

Concern also lies with New England’s level of competition this season. Before defeating the Ravens two weeks ago, the Pats had only defeated one team with a winning record all season long, That team was the Denver Broncos, hardly worth any comments about them being above .500. In New England’s only games against winning teams, they lost to both the Steelers and these Giants, failing to exceed 20 points in either. In the Conference Championship win over Baltimore, Brady and Co. were unable to pass for a touchdown.

While the issue of pass defense stats is a debatable one, there is no denying that the Patriots lack a pass rush. New England’s best quarterback chaser went down in December as DE Andre Carter was shelved for the season, along with his team leading 10 sacks. His absence could be a key component here.

Even though the team struggled at times, Eli Manning has had an outstanding year. He and his mates have turned up the heat at just the right time. After fighting through injuries and one of the league’s toughest schedules, the Giants found themselves at a pedestrian 7-7. Facing sudden-death from that point on, the G-Men have responded with five straight impressive wins, defeating the Jets by 15, Dallas by 14, Atlanta by 22, Green Bay by 17 and finally winning the NFC on the road in San Francisco. Much of that success can be attributed to the younger and less glorified Manning brother. It just seems that you can’t daunt Eli and his Giants. They have this uncanny ability to win just when you think they are cooked. During this season and into the playoffs, the Giants were 4½-point dogs to the Cowboys, 8½-point dogs to the Eagles, 9-point doggies to these Patriots, 8-point underdogs to the Packers and 2½-point pooches to the Niners. They did more than cover those games, they won each one outright. In his career, Manning has been a road underdog in seven playoff games and has covered all seven, winning six of them straight up. Without pressure and given time to pass to his talented receiving corps, Eli will hurt you. We’ve seen it before, we could easily see it in this match up.

While each game is a contest unto itself, we cannot overlook the Week 9 game that these two took part in. Not only did the Giants win that game as a prohibitive underdog, they did it in New England without WR Hakeem Nicks or RB Ahmad Bradshaw in the line up. With Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham all in good health now, we don’t see how the Patriots slow down New York’s aerial game. The Pats don’t have a qualified cornerback that is capable of defending any of the trio, let alone all three. So poor is that secondary, that receiver Julian Edelman could be on the field more as a defender than anything else.

To this point, New England has found ways to mask its weak secondary, mainly aided by a gratuitous schedule. In the AFC Final, Joe Flacco was being heavily criticized heading into the game but threw for 300+ yards and came within a Lee Evans squeeze of pulling an upset. Denver had no passing game to speak of. If you look at New England’s final six games of the season, they allowed an average of 317 passing yards per game to the likes of Philadelphia, Indianapolis, Washington, Miami and Buffalo (we excluded Denver with Tim Tebow). With the Giants’ talented and tenacious defensive line and pass rush ability, the Patriots will not have the luxury of putting up outrageous offensive numbers in order to hide their defensive liabilities.

Keep in mind, this game is not in Foxborough. In fact, it’s been six weeks since the Patriots have had to leave the comforts of home. New England hosted its final two regular season games, then had a bye, followed by two home playoff games and now a two-week break before suiting up for this one in Indianapolis.

It would be naive to think that the Patriots cannot win this game but when you look at the talent levels of both clubs, the body of work of each, the NFC’s clear superiority over the AFC and the neutral playing field, it is obvious that the line is in the wrong place. Like anyone else, the odds makers will have to pay for their mistake. Play: N.Y. Giants +125 (Risking 2 units).

Alatex Sports

Tom Brady Pass Attempts
Play: Under 39.5

I think there is some value with this prop in most game scenarios. The only one that doesn't lend itself to Brady tossing 40 or more passes is if the Giants get up big early and the Patriots are forced to throw the entire game. In any tight game, or if the Pats get the big lead, the likelihood of Brady throwing 40 times is diminished. Just based on the season numbers, Brady threw 40 or more passes in the first three games of the season, then did so just three times over the final 13 games of the regular season and did not in either playoff game. I look for New England to do its best to run the ball as well in order to slow down the Giants’ pass rush.