DR BOB
NEW YORK OFFENSE VERSUS NEW ENGLAND DEFENSE
New York’s offense has been good all season and the Giants enter this game averaging 386 yards per game at 6.1 yards per play (not including kneel downs and spiked balls to stop the clock, or the Hail Mary completion against the Packers) against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack. Quarterback Eli Manning has had his best season, averaging 7.5 yards per pass play while limiting his interceptions, but the normally effective Giants’ rushing attack was horrible most of the season and averaged just 3.9 ypr. The rushing attack has certainly been better recently and that improvement can be traced back to the season ending injury to left tackle William Beatty, who was injured in week 11 and has missed the last 9 games. David Diehl moved over the left tackle and Kevin Boothe stepped into the lineup starting week 12 (6 games at left guard and 3 at center) and has done a good job in run blocking. The Giants averaged only 3.4 ypr through week 11, but they’ve averaged 4.4 ypr since week 12 (against teams that would allow 4.3 ypr to an average team). I rate the Giants at 0.7 yards per play better than average heading into this game. Most people would assume that Eli Manning would post big numbers against a Patriots’ defense that allowed 282 passing yards per game at 7.0 yards per pass play (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.3 yppp against an average defensive team), but the secondary playing in this game for the Patriots performed much better than that and was actually quite good. The Patriots started the season allowing a horrendous 8.5 yards per pass play the first 4 weeks of the season, but the secondary improved drastically when James Ihedigbo was inserted into the starting lineup at strong safety in week 5 and Patrick Chung was much more effective at free safety after starting the season at strong safety. The other change was inserting Kyle Arrington at the starting cornerback slot opposite Devin McCourty. The foursome of Ihedigbo, Chung, Arrington and McCourty began starting together in week 5 and that group allowed just 6.3 yards per pass play in the next 4 games to the Jets, Cowboys, Steelers, and Giants – who would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average pass defense. The Patriots went from epically bad defensively to better than average in those 4 games (5.4 yards per play allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit), but Patrick Chung had to sit out the next 7 games due to an injured foot and McCourty also missed two games. The Patriots surrendered 6.9 yppp during that stretch without Chung (to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.9 yppp). Chung returned in week 17 and the Patriots have allowed just 5.8 yppp and 5.1 yppl in 3 games with their starting secondary back together. In 7 games in which their current starting has played together the Patriots have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense - and the Patriots would still be 0.1 yppp even after taking out the bad stats of Broncos’ quarterback Tim Tebow, who is not really representative of an NFL starting quarterback. The run defense is also better now than it was over the course of the season (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr), as the better secondary allows play calling that can concentrate more on stopping the run. The Patriots allowed just 3.7 ypr in both playoffs games to two very good running teams (Denver and Baltimore) and they’ve allowed just 4.0 ypr in 7 games with their starting secondary all playing (to teams that would average 4.4 ypr against an average defense). I actually give some of the credit for that difference in run defense to having their linebacking corps back healthy after Brandon Spikes missed weeks 10 through 16, which were also the weeks that Patrick Chung was out (New England gave up 5.0 ypr in those 7 games). Whether it’s having Chung back or Spikes back that has made the difference in the run defense is uncertain but it’s pretty clear that the Patriots run defense is better now than it was over the course of the season. Overall, the Patriots’ defense has been 0.3 yards per play better than average in 7 games with their starting defensive secondary and Spikes all playing – so they are much better than their horrible season stats suggest (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl). After adjusting for the Giants’ improved rushing attack with their current offensive line and for the Patriots’ improved defense with their current personnel I get a projection of 414 yards at 6.1 yppl for the Giants in this game.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE VERSUS NEW YORK DEFENSE
The Patriots’ offense has averaged 32.3 points on 428 yards at 6.5 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) with a slightly worse than average rushing attack (4.2 ypr against teams that would allow 4.4 ypr) and a very good pass attack that has averaged 8.0 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp). The pass attack was a little different this season, aside from Wes Welker catching 122 balls, as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez combined for 169 receptions for 2237 yards and 24 touchdowns in the regular season. Gronkowski was particularly impressive with his 10.7 yards per pass thrown to him average, which is outrageous for a tight end (Welker averaged 9.1 ypa and Hernandez averaged 8.1 ypa). Gronkowski hasn’t been able to practice due to a high ankle sprain he suffered last week but he is expected to play. The question is how effective he will be, as Gronkowski averaged 7.3 yards after the catch per reception – a number that would probably go down given his injury. If I assume that Gronkowski loses a good portion of those yards after catch due to his ankle injury (let’s say he averages 11.5 yards per catch like Hernandez does rather than his 14.7 ypc) then the pass attack would suffer a 0.4 yards per pass play drop, which would equate to about 1.3 points. If Gronkowski didn’t play at all then I would expect Tom Brady to average 0.5 yards per pass play less than expected, which is worth 1.7 points. It’s possible that Gronkowski won’t be affected and will play at his normal high level but I’ve decided to take off 0.2 yards per pass play due to his injury. Like the Patriots, the Giants’ defense is also better now than their season stats suggest, as they’ve only had their defensive line together for 9 games and they played much better in those games. Justin Tuck missed weeks 4 through 6 and week 14 while Osi Umenyiora missed weeks 1 through 3 and 13 through 16. In 9 games with both Tuck and Umenyiora joining Jason Pierre-Paul and tackles Linval Joseph and Chris Canty the Giants have been able to put pressure on the opposing passer with just their defensive line, which allows them to put an extra man or two in pass coverage. That has certainly helped, as the Giants have allowed just 6.1 yards per pass play in those 9 games despite facing quarterbacks that would combine to allow 7.1 yppp against an average defense. The run defense hasn’t been as good since the Giants have played a lot with 3 or 4 defensive ends on the line with one or zero tackles, but overall the Giants’ defense is been 0.45 yppl better than average defensively with their current personnel, which is considerably better than their season rating of 0.13 yppp better than average. The Giants’ defense is also particularly troubling for the style of offense that the Patriots like to play. With the ability to rush the passer effectively with their 4 down linemen the Giants can play more man-to-man coverage with safety help over the top and Tom Brady tends to have more trouble throwing against man coverage than he does against a zone defense, which he routinely picks apart since his receivers (Wes Welker in particular) are very good at finding holes in the zone. The Patriots have given teams problems this season with their two tight ends, who are often split out wide to create mismatches in open space for big plays down the field, but the Patriots were forced to bring their tight ends in tighter to help in pass protection when they faced the Giants in week 9, which kept them from getting down the field for big plays. In that game the Patriots’ tight ends caught 12 balls, which is about normal, but they averaged only 11.3 yards per catch rather than the 13.2 ypc they averaged for the season. New England averaged just 6.5 yards per pass play and 5.8 yppl in that 20-24 home loss to the Giants, which were below expectations based on statistical projections. The Giants’ pass rushers also match up well against a non-running quarterback like Brady, as it allows them to use both inside and outside pass rush moves against opposing linemen since they aren’t as worried about containing Brady in the pocket. Playing man to man coverage can make it easier for quarterbacks to take off and run for big yardage, as Aaron Rodgers did a few weeks ago (he ran for 66 yards on 7 runs while escaping the pass rush in the Divisional round of the playoffs), but Brady rarely runs and isn’t likely to run as effectively if he does run when the opportunity arises. If the Patriots’ tight ends are forced to help out in pass protection then that is certainly to the benefit of the Giants since the tight ends are a huge part of the passing game for New England. After adjusting a bit for Gronkowski’s injury and for the improvement in the Giants’ defense with their defensive linemen all healthy, I project 401 total yards at 5.7 yppl for New England in this game.
SIDE PREDICTION
Overall the Giants are expected to out-gain the Patriots and have an edge of 6.1 yppl to 5.7 yppl but New England has a 1.1 points edge in special teams and should have an edge in penalties (the Pats are +2.1 in penalty margin per game while the Giants are +0.5). My math model would favor New England by just 0.4 points (with a total of 54.6 points) based purely on the projected statistics and special teams, but the Patriots have a history of out-playing their statistics (especially on defense) while the Giants tend to under-perform their statistical projections (mostly on offense). In fact, this season the Patriots’ statistics would project a scoring margin of +8.1 points but the Pats are +11.6 in average scoring margin. The Giants, meanwhile, would be projected to out-score their opponents by 4.4 points per game based on their statistics, but they have a scoring margin of just +1.9 points. Some of that difference is simply due to variance, but New England has out-scored their statistical projections by 1.3 points per game with Tom Brady at quarterback over many years while the Giants have under-performed their statistical projections by 1.2 points per game with Tom Coughlin as coach and Eli Manning at quarterback. If I apply those numbers to that statistical math projection, which is certainly reasonable, then I get New England by 2.9 points in this game. I also took a look at the compensated scoring model and I got similar results. New England’s offense has averaged 32.3 points against teams that combine to allow 22.7 points per game, which is +9.6 points. The Giants’ defense in 9 games with all their defensive linemen healthy allowed 20.3 points against mostly high scoring teams that would combine to average 26.8 points per game, so the Giants’ current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. New York’s offense has averaged 25.0 points against teams that combine to allow 21.4 points, so the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average. The Patriots’ defense has allowed just 19.6 points per game in 7 games with their starting secondary and LB Spikes playing, to teams that combine to average 22.6 points – so the Patriots’ current defense has been 3.0 points better than average. If you add it all up then you have the Patriots at 12.6 points better than average (+9.6 on offense and +3.0 on defense) and the Giants at +10.1 points (+3.6 on offense and +6.5 points on defense). That’s a difference of 2.5 points in favor of the Patriots, but the Giants are a bit better offensively with their improved rushing attack and the Pats are probably going to be a bit worse with the Gronkowski at less than 100%, which would lead to an adjusted prediction of Patriots by 1 ½ points using the compensated scoring model. My other math model, which takes scoring efficiency into account, favors the Patriots 3 ½ points in this game after making all the adjustments. It appears the fair line on this game is anywhere between 1 ½ and 3 ½ points, so a line of 2 ½ points seems to be fair and doesn’t supply us with any value. As you can see, picking the side in this game is a bit tough to do given that the math is so close to the actual spread and the severity of Gronkowski’s injury is in question. The Super Bowl trends are also going both ways, as Super Bowl teams with revenge (the Patriots) are 20-9-2 ATS over the years (same season or not same season revenge) while teams on a 3 game spread win streak or more (the Giants) are 11-3-2 ATS against teams that are not on a 3 game spread win streak. Also, the team with the better straight up win-loss percentage (the Pats) are 0-8 ATS the last 8 years in the Super Bowl (although about 50% going back to 1970). I have no opinion on the side in this game.
OVER/UNDER
While the side doesn’t offer any value the Under looks like a pretty good bet. My math model based purely on the projected statistics would project 54 ½ total points, but New England’s defense has always allowed considerably fewer points than their statistics would project and that was certainly the case this season. New England has allowed just 20.7 points per game (22.3 is the league average) despite giving up an average of 400 yards at 6.0 yards per play and the Patriots average of 53.0 total points per game is 4.6 points lower than what their statistics would project. The Giants also tend to play lower scoring games than their stats project, as they’ve averaged 48.1 total points, which is 3.0 points per game lower than their statistical projection. Using a compensated scoring model would also lead to an under projection in this game. The Patriots averaged 53.0 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 44.0 points, so their games were 9.0 points higher than average. New York has averaged 48.1 total points per game against a schedule of teams that combine to average 45.4 total points, so the Giants’ games are 2.7 points higher scoring than average. The league average is 44.6 points but the median total points scored is 1 point lower than the average points, which gives us 43.6 total points if two average scoring teams were to play each other. New England’s games were 9.0 points higher scoring than average and the Giants’ games were +2.7 points, so that would give us a non-adjusted prediction of 55.3 points (43.6 + 9.0 + 2.7), which is what the Super Bowl total is based on. However, The Giants’ defense is better than their season numbers and the Patriots’ defense is much better than their season numbers. I also have to adjust for the Giants’ rushing attack being better than their season numbers and for the small reduction in the Patriots’ offensive pass rating due to Gronkowski’s injured ankle that will have him less than 100% if he does play. The adjustments are worth -6.2 points, which would result in the compensated adjusted scoring model projecting just 49 total points. Going back to the compensated scoring model using only the defensive numbers for each team with their current defensive personnel would result in an average lower prediction. As discussed above, the Patriots’ offense was 9.6 points better than average and their defense with their current personnel has been 3.0 points better than average while the Giants’ offense has been 3.6 points better than average while their current defense has been 6.5 points better than average. A projected total based on that, with 43.6 points as the norm, would be 43.6 + 9.6 (NE offense) – 3.0 (NE defense) + 3.6 (NYG off) -6.5 (NYG def), which equals 47.3 points. It appears as if the Giants and Patriots’ defensive improvements are not fully factored into the posted total on this game and my projections don’t take into account what I think is a negative match-up for the Patriots’ offense against the Giants’ style of defense, or the possibility that Gronkowski’s injury could affect him more than expected. The last 5 Super Bowls with a total of 48 points or higher have all gone Under the total and I’ll consider the UNDER (55) a Strong Opinion in this game.
PROPOSITIONS
Here are some propositions that I think offer some value.
QUARTERBACK PASSING YARDS
Brady is favored by 10½ yards over Manning and my math model projects the Giants with 40 more passing yards. Manning +10½ yards over Brady is a Strong Opinion. If you don’t have that prop then you can play Brady under 320½ passing yards.
HIGHEST SCORING HALF AND TOTAL
A fellow handicapping friend tipped me off that Super Bowl scoring trends are drastically different from regular season scoring patterns, when the 1st half generally has more scoring and the 2nd quarter is the highest scoring quarter. That has not been the case in the Super Bowl, as the second half has been higher scoring and the 4th quarter is the highest scoring quarter. Perhaps the reason for that difference is that the team leading the game is more likely to continue to play to score in a Super Bowl than in a regular season game when less is at stake. The trailing team also tends to take more chances and become more aggressive late in a Super Bowl, which can lead to big plays by the offense and the defense. Whatever the reason, the second half has been higher scoring in 28 of 45 Super Bowls (25 of the last 37), including 11 of the last 13. Many books offer a proposition on which half will be higher scoring and the current line is 2nd half to be higher scoring at -125 odds (equal scoring is a push) or 2nd half -1/2 a point at -115 odds. The second half to be higher scoring is a Strong Opinion.
THE ODDS FOR THE HIGHEST SCORING TOTAL ARE:
1st quarter +450
2nd quarter -125
3rd quarter +450
4th quarter +175
2 or more quarters tied +450
The 2nd quarter is favored to be the highest scoring quarter because that’s the way it is in the regular season, but the 2nd quarter has not been the highest scoring quarter since 1991, a span of 20 straight Superbowls without being the highest scoring quarter. The 4th quarter has been the highest scoring quarter in 9 of the last 13 Super Bowls and 18 of the last 37 (with a 19th year tying for highest scoring). At +175 odds, playing the 4th quarter as the highest scoring quarter appears to be a pretty good play. the 4th quarter to be the highest scoring quarter is a Strong Opinion.
Marc Lawrence
Memphis @ Boston
PICK: Memphis
When the Grizzlies travel to Beantown to take on the Celtics on Super Bowl Sunday everyone in Boston will be getting ready to watch their beloved Patriots take on the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI. Meanwhile Memphis will take the floor knowing they are 22-8-1 ATS in this series, including 14-0 ATS their last 14 games on this court. Making matters worse is the fact the Celtics are in off a same season revenger with the Knicks on Friday and looking ahead to a double revenger up next with Charlotte. Considering Boston is just 16-31 ATS at home in games after New York, including 1-6 ATS the last seven, look for the Grizzlies to improve to 5-1 ATS in non-conference clashes this season today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Memphis.
Sean Murphy
Villanova @ Pittsburgh
PICK: Pittsburgh -8
This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions as we head into the stretch run.
Villanova showed signs of life with back-to-back wins over Seton Hall and St. John's, but has since fallen back in line, dropping consecutive games against Louisville and Marquette, both SU and ATS.
It's been a trying season for the Wildcats, as they check in 10-12 SU and a miserable 6-13 ATS.
The fact that Pittsburgh has struggled for much of the season allows us to step in at a reasonable price point on Sunday.
However, the reality is, the Panthers are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They're no flash in the pan - this is an ultra-talented squad that can still make some noise in the Big East.
Note that Pitt has posted a 5-1 ATS mark over its last six games, and has won three in a row SU. The Panthers have won back-to-back contests at home, with both victories coming by double-digits.
Pitt swept the Wildcats in two meetings last year, as Nasir Robinson and Ashton Gibbs (both of whom are still in the fold) took turns leading the way.
Villanova has at least been able to stay competitive thanks to an offense that regularly gets into the 70s. The problem is, I'm not sure the Wildcats can break through that number in this particular spot, as Pittsburgh is beginning to round into form defensively, having held its last two opponents to 60 and 66 points on 41.3% shooting.
The Panthers offense has been in fine form during their current three-game winning streak, putting up 86, 72, and 72 points.
This is a strong motivational spot for Pitt, as it certainly doesn't want to fall behind another team in the Big East standings (Villanova owns an identical 3-7 conference mark). At this stage of the season, I simply feel that the Panthers have a lot more upside than the Wildcats, and they've yet to reach their ceiling.
Freddy Wills
West Virginia vs. Providence
Play: Providence +4.5
Providence played their worst game on the road vs. West Virginia losing by 30 points. This team is 10-3 at home and their highlight victory came by 30 points over Louisville. West Virginia is losers of 3 straight and they are just 1-5 on the road and have shot just 38.6% on the road while Providence has held opponents to 39.3% defense. They also have a +5 rebound margin and +9 FTA at home something that plagued them in the first game being -4 on the boards and -12 in FTA. They also show terribly 31.2% while West Virginia shot 48.6%. This will be a much closer game and one where Providence will have a chance to win in the end.
Dave Malinsky
SUPER BOWL XLVI Props Time
OK guys, you know the drill by now – there are hundreds of props out there to sort through, and it could take a full month to delve through them properly. Instead we will focus on a few that bring premium edges, to add to your Super Sunday portfolio.
Kelly Clarkson National Anthem Over 1:34
We see a bad line in play. Clarkson has done past anthems close to this range, but those were much different settings. Now she is out on tour to promote a new CD, and that means a chance to drive ticket sales and CD sales. And with an Indianapolis children’s choir backing her up, this can easily run much longer than in the past.
Eli Manning 1st Pass Incomplete +175
We would not be surprised to see the Giants go deep out of play action early – they have a strong matchup of their physical WR’s against a pedestrian Patriot secondary. So instead of that short pass to get early confidence, we might see an attempt at a quick strike, which makes this a solid value at the generous return.
No Special Teams or Defensive TD -175
A generic line has been set here that does not fit the ay that these teams play. Both are fundamentally sound, and only allowed four return TD’s by the opposition all season.
Deron Williams Points + Assists +2.5 -110
Brandon Jacobs rushing yards
The best part of a weak Patriot defense is their ability to stuff the run inside with Vince Woolfork and others. We do not expect the Giants to run into that strength often. Meanwhile Williams can put on a Saturday night show in Madison Square Garden against that weak Knick defensive back-court.
Steve Nover Prop Writeup
It's understandable if you can't come up with a side or total play on the Super Bowl. This one is priced right.
But there's no excuse for not finding a prop to your liking.
I've got a few. Allow me to share.
Not surprising, Tom Brady and Eli Manning are featured in several. Brady has been the best quarterback in football. This season, he was with Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees in the upper elite class. Manning has been the hottest quarterback down the stretch.
I see them both playing well. Brady didn't play well against Baltimore in the AFC championship series, but I can't remember the last time he had back-to-back poor performances.
They each have a plus price attached to the No on if they'll throw an interception. Going with the prop numbers at Station Casinos in Las Vegas, Manning is plus $1.60 that he won't be picked off while Brady is plus $1.25 that he won't throw an interception.
I think at least one of them will have a clean game. So I'll play on both of them at plus prices not to get intercepted, figuring to make a profit that at least one of them won't get picked off.
Brady is going to throw a lot. I know that. But I'm going to play that his longest pass completion goes less than 42 1/2 yards. During the season, Brady threw 488 passes. Only 45 of them were deep throws. That's less than 10 percent.
Using this same strategy, I'm going to play against BenJarvus Green-Ellis. I'm going to bet under 12 1/2 rushing attempts and under 47 1/2 rushing yards. Both are even or plus prices.
Green-Ellis is the Patriots' short-yardage guy. The Patriots don't have a full-time running back. The Patriots don't run much and Bill Belichick uses a committee approach. Green-Ellis doesn't figure to pile up carries unless this becomes a Patriots blowout - which no one anticipates.
At plus $1.30, I'll take a shot on Chad Ochocinco catching a pass. Ochocinco is under the radar because he had a quiet season and wasn't active for the Patriots' AFC title game against Baltimore. The reason for that was Ochocinco's father had just died.
Ochocinco is a proven veteran. Brady likes to spread the ball around. The Giants will be keying on Wes Welker and New England's outstanding tight ends. So Ochocinco can expect single coverage. Belichick has always liked Ochocinco. I think he'll make sure Ochocinco gets at least one Super Bowl catch.
Bryan Power
Northwestern @ Illinois
PICK: Illinois -5.5
Visiting Northwestern has been terrible thus far on the Big 10 road, losing all four times, three of those defeats coming by at least 20 points! Illinois has been kind to me as I've cashed them in recent outright wins at home over both Ohio State and Michigan State. The public may be skeptical of the Illini after they scored just 42 points in the win over Sparty earlier in the week, so we'll take advantage of the value. Bruce Weber's team is 26-9 ATS off a win by three points or less. N'western has lost 23 of the previous 27 matchups in this in-state rivalry.
Rob Vinciletti
Loyola Maryland vs. St Peters
Play: Loyola Maryland -8.5
Loyola is an amazing 95-49 ats on the road since 1997 and are 3-1 straight up and to the spread as a road favorite from -6.5 to -9/ They have won 10 of 11 this season vs losing teams and are 7-3 ats off a win and have covered 7 of 10 on the road when the total is 120 to 130. Today they catch St. Peters off a big road upset win over Siena. St. Peters is 0-8 straight up and ats as a home dog from +6.5 to +9 the Last 17 years. They have failed to cover 4 of the 5 times in home lined games and are 0-3 straight up and ats off a win this year. They have revenge in this one but they have lost 4 of 5 in this role. Look for Loyola MD to get the win and cover.
Jim Feist
Grizzlies vs Celtics
Pick: Under
Two excellent defenses start your Super Sunday and while New Englanders will be rooting for the Celtics, the Patriots will likely be on their minds. Boston is the league's 2nd best defense, allowing a mere 87 ppg. I like this game to go UNDER, but it's also because of a few other reasons. First, the Celtics don't score a lot of runs, evidenced by their 90.3 ppg (25th in the NBA). Memphis is tops in the NBA in steals and takeaways and that will also lend itself to the under here on Sunday. Toss in that the Grizzlies are 10th in the league in points allowed (92) and we have the recipe for a low scoring game. I'm taking UNDER to start your Super Sunday.
Hollywood Sports
Siena at Fairfield
Play: Under
Siena (10-12) blew a 9-point half-time lead by allowing St. Peter's to score 44 second half points en route to their 63-58 upset loss at home despite being an 8-point favorite. While the Saints may not be able to pull the upset here against the Stags, expect them to come out very focused to mend their ways on the defensive end of the court. Siena has played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total coming off a loss. Fairfield (12-10) is 6-3 on their home court this season -- and the Saints have played 7 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60% at home. The Stags have won two straight games after their 77-69 win over Niagara on Friday. Siena is just 2-7 on the road this season in part because they score only 60.0 PPG away from home. Additionally, the deeper metrics for both these teams illustrates some elite defensive characteristics. Siena is holding their opponents to just a 42.5% shooting percentage for their 2-point shots which is the 17th most stingy figure in Division I. The Saints also make it tough on their opponents by not putting them on the free throw line given their free throw attempt-to-field goal attempt ratio of 24.9% which is 6th best in the nation. Fairfield forces turnovers in 24.3% of their opponent's possessions which is 25th best in Division. Lastly, in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, the game finished Under the Total in 4 of these occasions. This contest looks to shape up in the same way. Take the Under here.
Scott Rickenbach
Memphis @ Boston
PICK: Memphis
The Memphis Grizzlies will be gearing down after a high-octane shootout with the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday. Memphis, which covered as an 8.5-point underdog in the 101-94 loss to Oklahoma City, visits the aging Boston Celtics Sunday afternoon. The Grizzlies have been one of the hottest bets in the NBA, going 3-0 against the spread in their last three outings – covering as pups in each. Oddsmakers are once again discounting Memphis when they come to the TD Garden, where the Celtics have gone just 6-8 ATS this season. Boston has been facing inferior competition in recent outings, scoring wins over New York, Toronto and Cleveland twice but posting a dismal 1-3 ATS mark in that span. The Grizzlies’ up-tempo attack is the exact opposite of Boston’s slowed-down pace, which is producing just over 90 points a night. Memphis has balanced production in its starting lineup and great scoring off the bench with O.J. Mayo sustaining the offense. Small forward Rudy Gay will be a tough matchup for the Celtics, putting pressure on Paul Pierce to step up on defense. Big man Marc Gasol could also have a big night with Boston center Jermaine O’Neal still recovering from a knee injury. Gasol abused a shorthanded Atlanta frontcourt and scored 24 points against the Thunder Friday. Memphis has been money versus Boston, going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings and an outstanding 11-0 ATS in its last 11 trips to Beantown.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Michigan State -7.5
Motivated by a 1-point loss at Illinois last game, and further fueled by a 1-point loss at Michigan in the season's first meeting, expect the Spartans to bounce back strong Sunday afternoon.
Home has been good to Michigan State to say the least. The Spartans are 13-0 inside the Breslin Center this season, winning those games by an amazing 22.6 points on average. Home has also been good to Sparty in this series. Dating back to 1998, Michigan State has won 11 of 12 at home against the Wolverines. 10 of those wins have come by at least 11 points.
Michigan has not been the same team on the road. It is 1-5 in true road games with those 5 losses coming by an average of 9.4 points.
Michigan State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. It is also 33-8 ATS in its last 41 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. We'll lay the points.
Larry Ness
Nebraska +1
Nebraska's football program joining the new Big Ten was a coup for the conference but the same can't be said regarding the Husker's basketball program. Why is that? Consider this. The Nebraska BKB team has NEVER won an NCAA tournament game plus the program has not claimed an outright league title since World War II. Doc Sadler enters his sixth season with Nebraska. He was previously the head coach coach at UTEP. He led that team to a 48-18 record and two postseason appearances in his two seasons at the helm, going 27-7 with a NCAA appearance in his first season. Sadler inherited a team that had been relegated to the back of the pack in the Big 12 Conference for several seasons when he took over at Nebraska, after former coach Danny Nee had led the team to four NCAA tournament appearances. Sadler's teams always play good defense, leading to many close games and his five-year record in Lincoln (prior to this season) is 89-70, an average of 17.8 wins per season. Let me note that the Huskers have never finished higher than 7th in his five years in the Big 12 (when it had 12 teams) and few expected that Nebraska would finish much better than that this season in the Big Ten, which also has 12 teams this season. True to form, the Cornhuskers are 11-10 overall but 3-7 in Big Ten play (11th). Lance Jeter (11.7-4.2 APG) was a HUGE loss from last year, but as was hoped, LSU transfer Spencer (15.3-3.5 APG) has taken up his scoring slack. What Sadler was counting on was more scoring from the 6-11 Diaz (10.5-4.4 LY), as Nebraska was 13-4 in games he scored double digits in last year. However, that hasn't happened, as Diaz is averaging 8.6 PPG (4.3 RPG) in his 16 games (missed five straight from Dec 17-Jan 3 with a bad ankle). Also out in that same stretch was 6-5 Binghamton transfer Talley (9.3-3.8) but he's also back on the court. They join a solid group of senior guards in McCray (10.3-5.0), Richardson (7.3-3.1-3.0) and Walker (6.6-4.3) plus the 6-10 Ubel (6.4-5.5). I'm not quite sure why Nebraska's record isn't a little better. Minnesota comes in 16-7 overall but just 4-6 in Big Ten play. Tubby Smith's team had HUGE losses from last season, in guard Hoffarber (11.6), PG Nolen (8.4), and the 6-10 Iverson (5.4-5.0). Then another guard, Joseph (11.2), transferred to Oregon. The 6-8 Mbakwe (14.0-9.1) was the team's leading scorer and rebounder but he tore his anterior cruciate ligament during Minnesota's loss to Dayton on Nov 27 and is now done for the year. The 6-7 Williams (10.6-5.4) and the 6-11 Sampson (8.5-4.8) are solid but hardly spectacular players. In fact, with Mbakwe out, the team owns just two double-digits scorers (barely!), in Williams and UC-Davis transfer Welch (10.2). Welch is joined in the backcourt by Austin Hiollins (8.8) and Armelin (6.2) plus two freshman, Coleman (6.1) and Andre Hollins (5.5). They'll have their hands full with a deep Nebraska perimeter group. The Huskers are 10-3 this season when scoring at least 60 points and Minnesota has allowed 68.8 PPG on the road this year. The matchups are very good for the 'Huskers in this one with their deep backcourt and a significant height advantage with Diaz and Ubel inside. Take the home team.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +11½ over DUKE
There are literally thousands of folks in Las Vegas today that have never bet a college basketball regular season game in their lifetime. They step into college basketball in March when the Madness begins but know very little about it. That can apply here too. This game tips off at 3:00 PM EST, about the exact time that people will be heading to the sportsbooks to watch and parlay teams onto their Super Bowl choice. What we know for sure is that you're going to pay a premium to wager on the hugely popular Blue Devils. Duke is ranked #5 in the country, they're 6-1 in the conference and they're 19-3 overall. They're also at home here but we're not in the business of wagering on public teams with inflated lines. Miami is just 4-3 in the ACC and 13-7 overall. They've beaten the ACC bottom feeders and don't have a signature win all season long. However, the Hurricanes are improving with a dangerous four-man attack. They'll bring everything they have here, knowing this game will be viewed by millions. Of course the same can be said for Duke but the Blue Devils are no strangers to big televised games. It's a common occurance with them. The real kicker, however, is that the biggest rivalry in college basketball is on deck when the Dukies play North Carolina on Wednesday in the first of two meetings. That alone makes the Hurricanes worthy of a bet here and when you throw in the inflated number, it makes the 'Canes even more appealing. Play: Miami +11½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
ILL-CHICAGO +9½ over Cleveland St.
In the Horizon League, Valparaiso, Cleveland State and Butler are the only three programs that have any relevance whatsoever. This year it's the Cleveland State Vikings that sit in first place with a 9-2 record in the conference and a 19-4 overall record. These two played earlier in the year at Cleveland and the Vikings beat the Flames by 17. However, that was the game after Cleveland St. opened Horizon League play with a loss to Youngstown State and were in a foul mood. The dynamics for this one are so different in that the Vikings have won four in a row and seven of eight. CSU's last loss came on the road in Valparaiso and after this game they have home games against Valparaiso and Butler on deck and that's why they're in a dangerous or vulnerable spot here. This game means nothing. The Vikings know they have two huge games on deck and will take the Flames lightly. Illinois-Chicago isn't much. They're 3-9 in the conference and 7-15 overall. However, they play some decent defense and in what figures to be a low scoring game, expect the Flames to hang around. This one is all about taking back inflated points. Play: Illinois Chicago +9½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
LOYOLA-Chicago +4 over Youngstown St.
Sticking with the Horizon League in a similar situation as the one above, Loyola-Chicago comes in with an unblemished 0-12 mark in the conference. Now, we're not talking about them getting beat by Big East teams here. We're talking about a bunch of dregs that include Detroit, Wright State, Green Bay and Illinois-Chicago among others that the Ramblers have zero wins against. Overall, the Ramblers are 5-17 and the last time they won a game was before Christmas on Dec 22 against Canisius. Youngstown State is 7-5 in the conference and 12-10 overall. They look extremely enticing here but we know better. Again, on this Super Bowl Sunday, where folks are just itching to parlay teams onto their Super Bowl choice, this one really sticks out. What's so interesting is that the Penguins will play their third consecutive road game here and they have both Butler and Valparaiso coming up this week. The Penguins are just 2-8 in Loyola since joining the Horizon League and this one is just screaming to stay away from them. Small road favorite against an 0-12 conference foe is a recipe for disaster. Line says so. Play: Loyola-Chicago +4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Doug Upstone
Loyola-MD -8½
Loyola-Maryland has just two losses in MAAC play thanks to a stingy defense that has not give up more than 57 points in its last five games. They are at St. Peter's who is off a rare win. On Super Bowl Sunday, Play On road teams as a favorite like Loyola-MD after allowing 55 points or less in two straight games, against opponent after allowing 60 points or less. (54-22 ATS L5Y)