Vegas Experts
Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
The Heat are huge favorites Sunday afternoon, so big in fact that we can't make a play on the side. However, we can look at the total and history suggests this one will go Over as Miami is 11-1 Over here at home when favored by 12.5 or more points. The Heat, who are the highest scoring team in the Eastern Conference, average 105.3 PPG here on home court. The Raptors scored 106 points in their most recent game.
Play on: Over
Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAY
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Giants/ New England Under 53: I know what kind of offenses these teams have, but these teams same teams played earlier in the year and there were just 44 points scored in that one. In fact if we look back at the 8 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1987, we will find that just one of those games put up more than 50 points. The last time these teams met in the Super Bowl both teams also had solid offenses, but just 31 points and 612 totals yards were put up in that one. The Giant defense has been solid down the stretch as they have allowed just 13.4 ppg and 318.8 ypg in their last 5 games. The Giants have allowed 255.1 ypg through the air on the year, which is 29th in the league, but in the Playoffs they have allowed just 200.7 ypg. Earlier in the year the Giants had a lot of defensive injuries and it really had them getting off to a slow start, but this unit is the healthiest it has been all year and they should continue to play well in this one. Defense has not been the strength of this New England team this year as they ranked second to last in passing defense (293 .7 ypg allowed) and 31st in total defense (411.1 ypg). Despite the weak overall defensive numbers, the Pats are still allowing just 21.4 ppg, which is 15th in the league. Now i have talked about yards per point being a very effective tool in football handicapping as it is the one stat that shows exactly what a team does with the ball. The Pats have a defensive YPP of 19.4 and that is second in the league behind San Francisco. This is a bend but don't break defense that knows hows to tighten it up the closer to the redzone they get. On offense we know that the Giants can throw the ball all over the field, but that is not really the way to beat the Pats. you need to run the ball to keep Brady and company off the field and now that the giant run game has been very good down the stretch, they feel they can pound away in this one vs a Patroit's defense that has allowed 117.1 ypg on the ground overall and 122ypg in their last 3 games. a lot of running by the Giants will help shorten the game and keep that clock running. The Patriots will also need to run the ball so as they look to keep the solid giants pass rush honest and that could work on the clock as well. I know full well that these teams have the ability to put up a ton of points, but history has shown that when these teams meet a low scoring game has prevailed more often than not and while i do not see just 31 points being scored like the last time, I do see a game in the mid to upper 40's.
Chuck O'Brien
To be seen on national TV, I love the seventh-ranked Blue Devils once again. Earlier this week they were my 60 Dime ACC Game of the Year; today I like them as a free play, as they'll take it to Miami, Florida with ease.
The Blue Devils check in at 19-3 overall and 6-1 in ACC action.
As I told you the other night, though the pollsters have them ranked seventh in the nation, which would make them a No. 2 seed next month amidst the madness, the Devils rank No. 1 in Strength of Schedule and No. 2 in RPI according to one very popular sports/entertainment website. Even further, the Blue Devils came into the week as one of four teams (Syracuse, Michigan State & Kansas are the others) of the 338 D-I teams to rank in the top 10 of the RPI, Strength of Schedule, AP and Coaches Polls.
Point is, the Blue Devils are damn good once again.
And once February hits, it's usually the same, as we see Duke heat things up and take it to the competition, leading right up to its season finale with North Carolina, and of course, the always anticipated ACC Tournament.
Also heading into this conference play this week, Duke was the only school in the ACC with five players averaging over 11.0 points per game during league play. Ryan Kelly (13.7), Andre Dawkins (13.0), Austin Rivers (12.0), Mason Plumlee (11.7) and Seth Curry (11.5) each rank in the top 25 in the ACC in scoring through six league contests.
The Blue Devils come in ranked 11th nationally in scoring at 80.0 points per game, and make note, they've faced six opponents that rank in the top 50 in scoring defense. And since Miami is used to giving up more than 67 points per game, I'm not too concerned about scoring points and building the margin in this one, given the balance the Devils bring.
Lay the chalk in this one.
1♦ DUKE
Matt Rivers
Free play winner for Sunday on Pittsburgh minus the points at home against Villanova.
The Panthers are back on track now that guard Tray Woodall has returned to Jamie Dixon's lineup, as Pitt has followed an eight game losing streak with conference wins and covers in each of their last three contests.
Villanova is just 3-7 straight up their last ten games, and on the road this season the Wildcats are only 2-9 straight up while failing in seven of those eleven road dates.
The Panthers have won and covered three straight in this series, and they have also been the right side in six of the last nine meetings straight up, while going 7-2 against the spread in those nine tilts.
With Pitt still in need of erasing that ugly eight game "bump in the road", I suggest laying it with the percolating Panthers this Sunday in the Steel City.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Boston Celtics to cover against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Boston Celtics have gotten on a roll they have won seven of their last eight games.
Ray Allen has led the way for the Celtics, scoring in double figures in the last four games, where the Celtics have gone 3-1. The Celtics have won four of their last five home games.
The Grizzlies have lost five of their last seven games and allow teams to shoot 34.8 percent from three-point range.
Look for Allen to be launching plenty of three-pointers in this game.
Memphis scores only 87.2 points for road games and give up 91.2 points. At home, Boston scores only 88.4 points, but limit teams to 81.8 points per game.
Look for the Celtics defense to dominate the game and keep the Grizzlies off balance.
2♦ CELTICS
Derek Mancini
16-10 Free Play roll! For today's Free Play, I'm siding with Miami-Florida plus the points at Duke. Probably the single biggest factor in this match up was whether or not Kenny Kadji was going to play. According to local media, he's been cleared and will be available, which is great news for the Hurricanes. Although Miami was able to win without him against Maryland Wednesday, doing so at Cameron Indoor would've been a hell of a lot harder. His size and athleticism will be absolutely key against this Duke frontline.
The second biggest factor is whether or not Duke can maintain its focus with their huge match up at North Carolina on deck Wednesday. The lookahead factor cannot be discounted in this spot, especially when you consider the Hurricanes are looking at this game as their opportunity to shine against a top-tier opponent. In other words, there's a tremendous disparity in motivation which should aid Miami in keeping this game within the number.
Finally, everyone knows to stop the Blue Devils you have to be able to match up on the perimeter. Duke lives and dies by the 3-pointer and the good news is the Canes have the athletic guard play necessary to chase down the Blue Devils' sharpshooters. Without Kadji in there against Maryland, Larranga was forced to screw around with his lineup. Now that he's back, Larrganga should return to the Grant/Scott/Larkin 3-guard starting lineup. This is key because Larkin is an excellent on the ball defender, and Grant and Scott are both solid as well. All things considered, this is simply too many points to pass up given how well Miami is playing and the lookahead factor for Duke.
3♦ MIAMI-FLORIDA
Scott Delaney
My free winner for Super Sunday is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers over the Nebraska Cornhukers in Lincoln, as Tubby Smith's boys are far better and should be able to steal this one on the road.
As the 'Huskers have been alternating wins and losses during their first season in the Big Ten conference, they're just 3-7 in league play, sitting in 11th place. Much of the problem has been a lethargic offense that is averaging just 62.2 points per game behind a paltry 42.9 percent shooting from the field. And even though there have been signs of improvement, I still haven't seen the type of consistency needed to compete in the Big 10.
On the other hand, even though the Golden Gophers have lost two of their last three games, I've always been a fan of Smith’s teams and how it plays late in the season, improving just at the right time. Minnesota might be 4-6 in the Big Ten, an just 2-4 on the road this season, but as far as I'm concerned it's much better than its record might indicate. The Gophers are currently tied for eighth place in the conference standings and are still making a push to finish in the upper half of the standings before the post-season tournament.
While the Gophers are averaging 69.2 points behind 47.2 percent shooting, the defense has been consistent in limiting teams to just 63.4 points and a modest 41.3 percent. Smith knows how to entice the Selection Committee, and I'm thinking his ploy is to get Minnesota in a good position for a strong finish to open the committee's eyes. And road wins in conference play are key.
Nebraska is just 2-6 against the spread in its last eight home games, and Minnesota is the better basketball team.
1♦ MINNESOTA
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Greyhounds of Loyola Maryland to continue their dominance in the MAAC with the road win and cover at St. Peter's.
The Peacocks pulled the Friday night upset at Siena, but it will be back to the loss column for Pete's after this one is over. Loyola Maryland enters play this Sunday with five straight wins on their side, and wins in eight of their last nine games overall. Against the spread the Grayhounds have covered three straight and are on a 5-1-2 overall spread run their past eight games.
Even with their win on Friday, the Peacocks are just 5-18 straight up this season, and their 1-4 lined spread mark at home this season shows they are a poor investment for their backers.
As I said, Loyola is on a five game winning streak, and that includes a double-digit home win over St, Peters, as the Grayhounds have now won two of the last three series meetings.
Go ahead and lay the road chalk with Loyola as they run the winning streak to six in a row.
4♦ LOYOLA MARYLAND
Chris Jordan
Super Bowl Prop Bet Winners
4♦ UNDER 1:35 NATIONAL ANTHEM
Former American Idol winner Kelly Clarkson takes center stage before Madonna tonight, as the former will sing the Star Spangled Banner and the latter is the Halftime entertainment. And while I'm sure there are plenty wondering if the original lady of risque will have a wardrobe malfunction during the intermission, given her seductive ways back in the day, I'm a little more intrigued about how long it's going to take the hefty pop-rock singer to belt out our National Anthem. In doing some research, she's done this before, prior to one of last year's NBA Finals games in Dallas, before a Cowboys game and before a Rangers game... yes, she's a Texas-bred gal. But there's no Southern drawl dragging things out when it comes to her singing this one, as she's ranged between 1:28 and 1:33 in several different videos I've watched. Also, she's going to have the Indianapolis Children's Choir with her out there, and one video I've seen of this group has the kiddies singing it in about 1:05. Perhaps the choir leader has the kids getting through it faster so they don't flub their lines. My guess would be it's easier to accommodate the kids, rather than making them slow down to Clarkson's tempo. So, it'll be the recording artist meeting the kids in the middle and quite possibly wrapping things up in about 1:20. Play this one UNDER.
3♦ PATRIOTS (pk) 3RD QUARTER
I like the New England Patriots to win the 3rd Quarter in this game, as I see the line is sitting on a pick'em. I might be one of the few critics/analysts/writers in America who never jumps the gun on Tom Coughlin. I have the utmost respect for him. But the fact is, during this era - love him or hate him - Bill Belichick is the best coach we've seen the past two decades. I don't care what anyone else says. I'll even go as far to say if anyone refutes that point, they're an idiot. So, who would I rather have going into the locker room and having that short a time to make adjustments, and come out swinging in the third quarter. I think no matter what has taken place in the first half - if the Pats are up or down - Belichick is going to be a mad scientist during halftime and will come out brainstorming on what needs to be done to get the best of the Giants in the third quarter, putting them on their heels. In the third quarter, this season, the Patriots are 13-5, and make note that in all three losses this season, they trailed in the third. The other two games were against Dallas, a game the Patriots had to rally to win, and then against Baltimore in the AFC Championship. Eight of those 18 games the Patriots held the opposition scoreless. Fact is, Belichick knows in order to either maintain a lead, or get back into it, his Pats must Win the 3rd Quarter.
2♦ CHAD OCHOCINCO SCORES FIRST (+4000)
Not since the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts met in the Super Bowl, have I liked a player to score first like I do today. That year it was Devon Hester. And sure enough he scored on the opening kickoff. Well tonight I think it would be only fitting for the boisterous receiver who has been humbled in his role as a New England Patriot, to break out and be the first person to score in this game. Why? Cause it's so Belichick! Nobody would think of it, really. They're thinking about the Law Firm - ahem, BenJarvis Green - or Rob Gronkowski, even with the bad wheel, to get the Patriots on the board first. But I think Ochocinco is the perfect weapon to throw the Giants off guard, and set Patriot-nation on fire with a deep pass to steal all the momentum right off the bat. Calling it crazy? Well, this is a proposition bet, right? And we are talking about chameleon-like Belichick. And would you really put it past him? I mean, haven't we all learned by now that he does the unexpected. Would it really be that much of a stretch to see Ochocinco, one of the most outspoken NFL players the past decade who has done nothing all season long, be a key cog to a Patriots win in Super Bowl XLVI? Uhm, just sayin! I'll take Chad Ochocinco to score first.
1♦ UNDER 2' SACKS BY GIANTS (-125)
Don't expect to see New England quarterback Tom Brady on his back too much in Super Bowl XLVI, with all due respect to the New York Giants' elite pass rush that produced 48 regular-season sacks and nine more in the playoffs. Problem is for that ferocious defensive front everyone keeps boasting about and thinks will dominate, when it comes to the fact it's now healthy, it just doesn't perform as good against double-tight end sets. So guess what Belichick likely will be using quite a bit today, while not only trying to protect his star pupil, but also in trying to beef up the line when he's running the ball - a double-tight end set with Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The Patriots use a two-tight end formation on more than 70 percent of their plays - easily the most in the league. Well guess what, the Giants only have four sacks against two-tight end formations all year. Their sack rate? Well that's only 2.8 percent - the second-lowest in the league. Go back to when these two met back in Week 9, the Giants sacked Brady only once when both tight ends lined up. Knowing all this, you have to expect Belichick to work on the side of caution tonight, and make sure he has two tight ends most of the time. I'll wager on the Under 2' Sacks by the Giants.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAY
Troy/ UL Lafayette Under 145.5: (Added) Just 4 times this year has 140 points been topped in a Ragin Cajun Sun Belt games and 3 of those times have been OT games. Now despite the 4 times that have hit over 140 points, just 2 of those games put up more than tonight total. UL Laff's last 5 games have averaged just 133.2 ppg, while their road games have averaged 135.4 ppg on the year, plus within the sun Belt their games have averaged 135.1 ppg, and that's with 3 OT games. Troy's numbers have not been that much higher in the 3 categories listed above. Troy's last 5 games have averaged 137 ppg and their home games have averaged 140.3 ppg, while their Sun Belt games have put up just 136.1 ppg. All those numbers above do not really indicate a game that will be played in the in140's. Troy has struggled at the defensive end this year as they have allowed 75.2 ppg overall, but they have been playing better of late, allowing just 66.3 ppg in their last 4 games. The Ragin Cajuns Have allowed 67.9 ppg overall and 70.1 ppg on the road, but they have been playing much better defense of late as they have allowed just 64.2 ppg on 37.7% shooting in their last 5 games. Troy has averaged 69.2 ppg at home and 66.4 ppg in their last 5 overall, but with in the Sun Belt they have averaged just 63.9 ppg. The Caguns have averaged 68.9 in conference play , but 65 ppg on the road this year. In looking at the number above I really see a game that should have an OU line in the high 130's and not mid 140's. Both teams have played good defense of late and I will look for that to continue as this one finishes somewhere in the mid 130's
4 UNIT PLAY
Eastern Kentucky -4 over SIU EDWARDSVILLE: (Added) Pretty good spot for EKU here as they are off a good road win vs Eastern Illinois and only have a Division 2 school on deck. EKU has taken the two meetings in this series by DD and they come in playing much better than the Cougars, as they are 3-2 in their last 5 overall and 6-5 in the OVC, while the Cougars are 4-7 in conference play and just 1-6 in their last 7 overall. In their 1-6 run, the cougars have lost 5 of those games by DD and have been outscored by 10.1 ppg over that stretch. SIU also lost at home (by DD) earlier in the year to the same Eastern Illinois squad that EKU just beat on the road. The Offenses are about even, but EKU has allowed just 67 ppg vs division 1 teams, while the Cougars have allowed 73 ppg in their Division 1 games. That gives a solid defensive edge to the Colonels. Neither team is playing great right now, but EKU is still playing much better an should be able to win this one going away.
3 UNIT PLAYS
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Florida State/ Virginia Over 115.5: Both of these teams have played great defense this year, but I believe the offenses can put up enough to go Over this low OU line. Virginia comes in allowing just 51.1 ppg overall, while allowing just 57 ppg on the road. FSU has played really good defense at home as they have allowed just 58.8 ppg on 36.1% shooting ion their home floor this year. Now over to the offense where we we see that these groups should be able to score on these teams. Virginia has averaged just 64.3 ppg on the year, but they have done so on a solid 46% shooting, while on the road they have averaged 66 ppg on that same 46% shooting. FSU has been a strong offense club at home this year, where they have averaged 78.2 ppg on 48.8% shooting in those games, while in their last 5 games overall they have put up 78.6 ppg on 49.8% shooting. Virginia's games have been low scoring, but their road games have averaged 123 ppg, while their conference road games have averaged 116 ppg, which is just above this total. Ok that's not much leeway, but FSU is the home team and they should have this game more at their pace than Virginia's. FSU's Home games have averaged 137 ppg, while their conference games overall have averaged the same. Their conference home games have been slightly better at 141 ppg. I look for this one to be played in the 120's at least, as FSU should be the game up enough for this one to go Over the total. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Over if the home is an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) but have made 47% or better of their overall shots in 3 straight games if they are playing against a good 3PT defense (<=32%) after 15+ games. This play is 41-13 since 1997.
DENVER PK over Middle Tennessee State: (Added) Denver is a very good home team and they come in at 10-2 on the year and have outscored teams by 9.8 ppg in those games. The Pioneers have played great defense this year, especially at home where they are allowing just 59 ppg on 42.8 % shooting. MTSU has been a solid offensive club this year as they have averaged 72.3 ppg overall and 70.9 ppg on the road, but in their Sun Belt road games that number comes down a bit to just 67.2 ppg. At the offensive end Denver isn't a high scoring team, but they do shoot very well (48.2% overall and 49.3% at home), while averaging 67.3 ppg overall and 68.8 ppg at home. MTSU is a team that has played great defense this year as they have allowed just 60.5 ppg overall and 61.6 ppg on the road, but I feel that Denver at home will be able to shoot the ball well enough to put enough points on the board to get the win here, especially if their play at the defensive end is as good as it has been at home.
Purdue/ Indiana Under 142: (Added) Indiana does not like the slow down game, but on the road in the Big 10 of late they have been forced to play that style of ball as their last 3 Big 10 road games have averaged 123.3 ppg. Indiana has scored just 58.3 ppg over that stretch and tonight they must face a Purdue team that has allowed just 55.9 ppg on 38.1% shooting at home on the year. The have allowed 68 ppg on 50.4% shooting in their last 5 games, but those numbers should drop vs this Indiana squad that has struggled to score away from home of late. Indiana has allowed 73.1 ppg on the road this year, but just 65 ppg in their last 3 away from home, so they have been playing a bit tighter defense of late. Indinia has lost teir last 4 road games, but in their last 3 the pace was really slowed and you can bet that that's the rout Purdue will go. They play excellent defense at home and that should continue here, while their own offense will not put up a ton with the slower pace. I don't expect either team to hit 70 points in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
NOTRE DAME +1 over Marquette: My Irish are just getting no respect. Sure Marquette has won 7 in na row, but Notre Dame has been playing very well of late this year and they are at home. The "Burn" will be in full effect as the Irish pull another Big East upset. NOTRE DAME is 14-5 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons and 15-5 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
UL Monroe +11.5 over ARK- LITTLE ROCK: (Added) Play on - Road underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games. ULM has gone 6-3 ATS on the road this tear and they should be able to keep this one close.
Tony George
NY Giants +3
Shooting myself for not putting this out at +3.5 when it opened up , over a fall number. It is hovering at +2.5 or 3 now...You COULD buy this line to +3 if you want to but now at about half the books as of Monday before the Super Bowl it is back up to +3 at about 50% of the books. SHOP IT! Stats and ect do not matter this time of season in terms of capping the Super Bowl in its truest form. The Giants DEFENSE is the key. I have seen good defensive schemes from teams far less talented than the Giants slow the Patriots all year in big games. I mean Kansas City gave them a game for 3 quarters on Monday Night Football in Boston with Tyler Palko at QB. With Tom Brady’s #1 weapon at Tight End is questionable and not near 100%, even with shots in his ankle before the game, their offense is slowed but still will move the chains.
The Giants defense is better than their yearlong stats as advertised and their defense has got them to this point with a efficient offense led by Manning. So you add up a better running game, a QB that may not be as good as Brady, but damn near it, and the better defense overall. Advantage NY! While I think BOTH defenses will struggle and allow some points, I also think the Giants are better.
Tom Coughlin a great coach, as is Belichick so it is a wash there. I have a slight hesitation based on double revenge from losing a Super Bowl to the Giants and losing at home in the regular season for the Pats. But revenge is out the window once the game starts on a neutral site. The other thing that stands out is the fact New England got outplayed at home by Baltimore. They got the game handed to them, while NY went out a took the win from San Fran. New England has not been impressive down the stretch and NY has, plain and simple. Manning is kool in the pocket and should benefit from extra time to throw it to Nicks and Cruz and Manningham, and those weapons along with a 1-2 punch at RB make them a tough beat for the Pats. At day’s end the key is the makeshift secondary of the Pats is not going to be able to handle the Giants receivers with consistency.
Harry Bondi
PATRIOTS OVER 1.5 FIELD GOALS
Since taking over for New England legend Adam Vinatieri, Stephen Gostkowski has very quietly turned into one of the more reliable kickers in the game. Bill Belichick won’t pass up a chance for three points if he gets it in this game, especially when you consider that in Gostkowski’s career he is 12-for-13 in seven dome games and the one miss was from 53 yards. In addition, Gostkowski kicked two or more field goals in 11 out of 18 games this season. This one goes over easily.
AHMAD BRADSHAW OVER 3 RECEPTIONS (+100)
The Patriots have made it a priority to pressure Eli Manning as much as possible and have installed a few different schemes for the game in order to do so. This will not only lead to a few dump-offs to the NY Giants running backs, but also expect the Giants to utilize a few more screen passes than normal. Bradshaw started the season averaging 3.4 catches a game, but then got hurt and missed four games, which hurt his overall stats. Since getting healthy, he is back to averaging 3.5 receptions a game, including a season-high six catches in the NFC Championship Game win over San Fran. Look for that trend to continue.
TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS OVER 2.5 (+190)
The nearly 2-to-1 payoff is attractive to us here since New England ranked second in the NFL in interceptions this season and the Giants were tied for fifth. Eli Manning has thrown at least one interception in 12 out of his team’s 19 games this year and if you broke down the film of the last two playoff games you’ll see that he should have had at least three more INTs added to his slate, but the defensive backs didn’t make the play. Tom Brady has also uncharacteristically thrown 15 picks in 18-career playoff games. Definitely worth a shot here.
WILL THE GAME BE TIED AFTER 0-0 - YES (+110)
No matter who you like to win this game, you have to be under the assumption that this will be a close game throughout. We are bound to see a deadlock at some point, particularly in the early going and love the fact that we’re +110 instead of paying any juice.
Fairway Jay
Michigan at Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -7
Michigan (7-3) has beaten Michigan State (6-3) three straight times and the games are becoming more meaningful as the Wolverines return to the top part of the Big Ten standings. Michigan snapped an 11-game losing skid in East Lansing a year ago, and appear to have the defense, speed and talent to battle with better teams. Clearly they have a quality coach with John Beilein, but the Spartans and Tom Izzo will play this as their most meaningful game of the season thus far. Here are some things to watch in today’s Big Ten battle on national TV.
Michigan State (17-5) actually sports the better defense overall, allowing just 59 ppg and 38% FG shooting in league play. Both teams are hitting 46-47% of their shots in league play, but the Spartans are +14.8 in scoring margin thanks to a 4-0 ATS mark as home favorites with every win by 15 or more points. Michigan (17-6) has taken more three-point shots than any Big Ten team, but the Spartans perimeter defense is supreme; holding league opponents to just 29% shooting beyond the arch. Now add in the Spartans superior size and league best rebounding margin (+10) with over eight boards per game more than Michigan, and we have a stronger Spartans team ready for payback following a 60-59 loss in Ann Arbor just three weeks ago.
Michigan State sets up in a powerful set of profiles in this contest. Izzo is one of the best with a few extra days to prepare for an opponent, and with 4+ days to prepare playing with triple revenge against their hated rival, look for the Spartans to showcase their squad and deliver a solid win.
David Banks
Giants / Patriots Under
The right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy will be earned by either the New York Giants (12-7, 11-7-1 ATS) or New England Patriots (15-3, 10-8 ATS) when the teams collide in Super Bowl XLVI on Sunday; kick-off from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN is set to go live on NBC at 6:30 ET.
What a wild ride the Giants have taken their fans and betting backers on this season! For a team that grossly underachieved over the course of their regular season schedule, the Giants knew exactly when to turn it on. Since shockingly falling at home and allowing the Washington Redskins to sweep the season series from them back in Week 15, Coach Tom Coughlins troops rattled off five straight wins and covers with everything on the line. That speaks volumes about what this franchise is currently all about, as it was only four years ago almost to the day that the Giants played with ice in their veins en route to securing the franchises third Super Bowl title when it upended the Patriots as decided underdogs in XLII. The Giants got here by destroying Atlanta in the Wild Card round (24-2), Green Bay in the Divisional Round (37-20), and San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game (20-17). The Giants check in 3-1 SU & ATS in their four previous Super Bowl appearances, and if they live up to their 7-3 SU & ATS marks away from MetLife Stadium this season, they just might take home trophy #4!
Double-digit regular season win tallies are something the folks in Foxboro have gotten used to through the years with Bill Belichick at the helm. You have to go as far back as 2002 to find the last time the Patriots failed to tally 10 wins in a season. Though the Pats werent as lucrative in the pointspread department as they were a season ago, Tom Brady and his mates will take it considering they failed to win a single playoff game each of the previous two seasons. And now, the AFCs top overall seed finds itself in the big game for the seventh time in franchise history and the fifth time with the duo of Belichick and Brady calling the shots. New England punched its ticket to XLVI be simply demolishing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos in the Divisional round, and followed it up with a tough fought win against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. Like tonights opponent, the Pats caught a few lucky breaks along the way cough cough Cundiff cough but it doesnt matter how you get there just as long as you do.
New York has won each of the last two meetings with the Patriots which includes Super Bowl XLII and this years meeting that came back in Week 9; a game won by the Giants 24-20 as nine-point underdogs in the closing moments. Four of the teams L/5 meetings have failed to surpass the closing total. The Giants have been perfect in postseason play as underdogs of late covering all eight instances the oddsmakers didnt expect them to win, while the Patriots have gone just 1-3-1 ATS their L/5 Super Bowl appearances but bounced back with pointspread covers nine of the L/12 times they played off an ATS defeat.