Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 6,2011

SPORTS WAGERSFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Green Bay –3 +105 over Pittsburgh
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If these two teams have thawed out after their respective conference championship victories, Super Bowl XLV is expected to be a great one. Both teams took different paths to get here. The Steelers overcame some early season adversity as they went 3-1 during QB Ben Roethlisberger’s suspension. Upon Ben’s return, they finished out a solid 9-3 and were particularly strong on the road throughout the year with a 7-1 away mark. Pittsburgh led the league in points allowed, a mere 232, averaging just 14.5 per game. Its rush defense ranked amongst the best ever, allowing just 1004 yards on the season. This stop unit was also 2nd in total yardage allowed, 12th in passing yards allowed, 1st in sacks and 5th in interceptions. In the AFC, only the Patriots finished with a better record than Pittsburgh’s regular season 12-4 mark, placing the Steelers as a No. 2 seed. Pittsburgh has a rich history of Super Bowl appearances, with the most recent occurring just two seasons ago when it defeated the Cardinals in SB XVIII.
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The Packers haven’t been played in a Super Bowl since the late 90’s. Green Bay entered the playoffs as the No. 6 seed. Sitting at 8-6 with two games remaining, it needed to win its final pair to grab the final post-season spot. The Pack struggled on the road during the regular season with just three wins against five losses. Their ground game took a hit when starter Ryan Grant went down early and the Packers subsequently finished 24th in the run game. This was a team with tremendous promise entering the season but struggled at times before putting together a strong push when it was needed most.
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So however they got here, we are left with the 14-4 Steelers, the team with the most Super Bowl trophies in league history, going for their third ring in six years, the team with the NFL’s best defense taking on this inexperienced, No. 6 seeded Packers group and the sharp Las Vegas oddsmakers have instilled Green Bay as a 2½-point favorite. Say what?
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That’s right, despite some very impressive credentials on Pittsburgh’s side of the ledger, Green Bay is listed as the favorite here and from where we sit, with good reason.
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While we can easily be impressed with what we see on the surface of the Steelers, they could very well be imposters. Pittsburgh’s defensive stats may seem extraordinary but they may also be skewed. When we look at the Black and Gold’s 2010 schedule, we find it to be a rather favorable one. The Steelers had just two wins against playoff teams this year. The first occurred on opening day against the Falcons. The other took place in Baltimore in the rematch (they lost opener) against their storied division rival. Pittsburgh’s other games against playoff squads resulted in losses to the Saints, Patriots and Jets. In the Steelers other 11 games, they faced teams that were a combined 46-82 (.359 win percentage) on the season. Despite the softness of the schedule, the Steelers offense could only manage to finish 14th overall, behind such offences as the Broncos, Chiefs and Raiders. In the losses to the Pats and Saints, both Tom Brady and Drew Brees threw for more than 300 yards. That sounds the alarms as Aaron Rodgers certainly ranks with those guys and with his speedy and talented receiving corps lining up against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary, Rodgers is more than capable of inflicting similar damage.
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Aside from its potentially dangerous passing attack, Green Bay warrants this tag for other reasons. While its 10-6 mark may not be overly impressive, it should be noted that the Packers never trailed a game this season by more than 7 points. In addition, they never lost a game by more than four points. Two of Green Bay’s losses occurred when Aaron Rodgers was hurt in the 2nd quarter of a game and subsequently missed the next contest. Upon Rodgers return to the line-up, the Packers have not lost since, winning five straight while going 4-1 versus the spread in this run while outscoring their opposition by an aggregate score of 145-71.
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It’s not like Green Bay can only play offense. Its defense is a strong unit that finished 2nd in points allowed, only eight points behind these Steelers. While arguments can be made about which team is stronger at some of the defensive positions, the Packers clearly have an edge in its secondary with the savvy Charles Woodson patrolling back there and the continued emergence of Tramon Williams. Yes, Troy Polamalu is a force but there is a big drop off after him and we’re not so sure that Polamalu is 100% after missing some time recently. In addition, Pittsburgh’s offensive line has been a concern all season long and with the status of C Maurkice Pouncey unknown and with Green Bay leading the league in sacks this year, there are some serious concerns for the Steelers front line. The Packers may also have an advantage that few, if any have had against the Steelers this year in that Green Bay plays the same 3-4 defense as Pittsburgh. Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers and Steelers defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau worked together in Pittsburgh when LeBeau was the defensive backs coach and Capers was the defensive coordinator. This should aid Green Bay’s preparation, as the Packers will have had a better look in practice from their scout team in replicating Pittsburgh's defense. The familiarity could conceivably cut both ways but Green Bay has arguably the best set of receivers in the league, giving it a distinct advantage.
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While the AFC is generally perceived as the stronger conference, we’re not so sure. The NFC had two 10-win teams that failed to make the playoffs. The AFC playoff participants were pretty much determined in week 14. After New England and Pittsburgh, were there any AFC teams to be fearful of? The Chiefs or Colts? Ravens or Jets? Not quite. The NFC had a dangerous Eagles team, the defending champion Saints, a well-balanced Falcons squad and a stellar Bears group. The Packers current playoff run consisted of wins in all but the Saints’ house. Pittsburgh had a much easier path, with a suspect win over the Ravens and knocking of a flat Jets team that appeared spent after eliminating the Patriots. Yes, Pittsburgh has the experience edge but so did the Colts when they lost to the neophyte Saints last season, giving the NFC covers in the past two Super Bowls. It can be argued that these two have equal defenses but the Packers undoubtedly are the better offence and that is likely why Green Bay is the favorite here. It is also the reason that the Packers win this game by a touchdown or better. Play: Green Bay –3 +105 (Risking 2 units).

Tony GeorgeFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Steelers / Packers Over 44½
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Much has been said about the defenses in this game, and it should. But bear in mind both these high octane offenses face a 3-4 defense every day in practice and both coordinators know how to pick and choose their spots when making plays against this defensive type scheme. With both QBs able to extend plays and both having playmakers all over the place, it is going to be hard to make this a defensive battle. It may look like it on paper, but the answer is not that simple. Green Bay can score on anyone, and while they face their toughest test of the season here, they will score. Pittsburgh also can rack up points, run the ball and move the chains. It will boil down to defense, but not in the standard way in my mind, but in fact one of these great defenses will make a huge stop at games end to help their team win the game, but neither is going to shut down either offense all day. I see both teams in the 20s here.FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Prop Plays – Heinz Ward OVER 48.5 yards receiving for Steelers – Charles Woodsen OVER 5.5 tackles for Green Bay

Sports InsightsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
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The biggest game of the year has arrived, and interestingly, the betting is split at about 50%/50%. The team at SportsInsights huddled on this game -- and also spoke to some of our offshore sportsbook risk manager contacts. Overall, the consensus is that there is contrarian value on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers finished the regular season with a 12-4 record, better than Green Bay's 10-6 record -- but surprisingly to some, find themselves as 2.5 to 3 point underdogs to the Packers.
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After a slow 3-3 start to the season, the Packers ended the season strongly, ending at 10-6. The Packers continued their strong play in the playoffs, by steamrolling past a strong Atlanta Falcon team on the road. Their strong recent performance has led to public sentiment favoring the Packers. We'll "sell the Packers" at this recent high.
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In addition, a look at the line movement shows that there could be some line value on the Steelers. The line opened close to "pick'em" -- but early betting moved the point spread to Green Bay being favored by the 2.5 to 3 points -- where it has hovered for the past two weeks. This 3-point line move is a huge line move, especially with the top-rated defenses in the NFL this year. We'll take the Steelers and the points -- and this huge line value.
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Remember to shop around for the best line. Sportsbook currently has the the Steelers at +3 -120. It's normally worth paying some "vig" for the huge key number of 3.
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Pittsburgh Steelers +3

Bettorsworld

Steelers vs Packers
Play: Packers -2.5

There was a stretch of time where Super Bowls were somewhat easy to handicap. There were plenty of handicappers with streaks of picking x number of Super Bowls in a row correctly, including yours truly. But that was at a time when there were some very big differences between the AFC and the NFC with each taking turns being superior to the other. The NFC had a long stretch where it always seemed to be on top.

That was then, this is now. The NFL over the last decade has achieved it's goal of parity. Heck, once upon a time it was possible to find multiple solid selections week to week during the regular season. Now more than ever, handicapping the NFL on a week to week basis is almost impossible. Any handicapper having a "great" NFL season is doing so with a great deal of luck. There are no "bad" NFL lines. There is no "inside information". Those things existed once upon a time. Not in 2011.

This is only magnified with the Super Bowl, the single most popular sports betting event of the year. No bettor is going to find an "edge", betting on the side or the total of the Super Bowl. The lines are correct. All that can possibly be known about both of these teams is known. It's out there. These two teams are very similar in make up.

Both have very good QB's that can move around in the pocket and take off if they have to. Both have some great targets to get the ball to. Both have had their problems running the ball. Both have had their offensive problems at times this year and both have tremendous defenses. Both coaches have proven themselves. Perhaps Tomlin has an edge having been to and won a Super Bowl already.

In fact if you're looking for any edge at all, and it could be a big one, it would have to be Super Bowl experience. The Steelers have it from the coach on down. The Packers don't. Packers coach Mike McCarthy has never been to the Super Bowl. Not as a coach. Not even as a spectator. There are only two players on the Packers roster who have been to the big game. There are 28 players on the Steelers, 15 starters and 13 backups who have Super Bowl experience.

In many of the Super Bowl blowouts of yesteryear, it was the team with the Super Bowl experience on top. Makes sense as well. Often times this game is won or lost in the preparation stages. How the team handles the layoff, how the team handles the media, and so forth. Often times the inexperienced team was just happy to be there. So if you're looking for any edge to hang your hat on, there it is. The problem with that edge, if it exists, is that you would be guessing, going in, that it will be a factor. It may, it may not. The Saints won last year, having never been to the game before.

Professional sports bettors will focus on prop bets on Super Bowl Sunday. There, you WILL find mistakes in the lines. Many of them. Aside from mistakes by oddsmakers, professional bettors will also look to take advantage of mistakes the general public makes when they bet on props. The public loves to bet on anything that involves scoring or success by a team or individual. They'll bet on players to have x receptions or more. They'll bet on a QB to have xxx number of passing yards or TD passes. They'll often do so to the point that it forces the sportsbook to move the lines so much that it creates tremendous value on the other side of those props. Make a chart and track the line moves on props. You'll likely find some good wagers, going opposite those moves. Might even find some middles and scalps.

As far as the game itself, these two teams have almost identical yards per point numbers, with both being very good defensively. Both have great turnover margin numbers with the Steelers at +16 and the Packers at +13. They both outscored their opponents on average by a score of 25-15. They both average about 4 yards per rush and 12 yards per pass completion. The biggest difference statistically looks to be in rushing defense where the Steelers are #1 in the NFL at 62 yards per game and the Packers are #11 at 108.

But remember, the Packers have had trouble running the ball all year long. The have a pass first offense. What doesn't show up in the stats are the short passes that are just as effective as a run, ala Peyton Manning and the Colts.

A strong case can be made for either team, so that's what we'll do.....

The Steelers: In making a case for the Steelers to win this game, we'd focus on the rushing game and the experience angle. The team figures to be better prepared and figures to handle the Super Bowl and all that comes with it, better than the team with just about zero experience. Aside from the experience, football games are won and lost in the trenches, particularly with how well a team can run the ball and stop the run. The Steelers do both, better than their opponent. Success with the running game for the Steelers opens up the passing game. In this scenario, expect huge games from Rashard Mendenhall and Ben Roethlisberger as well as the Steelers secondary as the Packers get desperate. If this scenario plays out, a double digit Steelers win is likely.

The Packers: The case for the Packers lies with QB Aaron Rodgers and a Packers offense that is built for speed. Who needs a running game when you have 5 receivers to choose from with at least one or two of them open every play? Playing inside in Dallas, with the roof closed, should be a big edge for the Packers speedy receivers. The Packers were just 2-2 in domes this year but outscored their opponents 99-51 and played one full half without Rodgers due to a concussion. If the Packers can slow down Mendenhall and the pass rush can keep Roethlisberger on his toes and rushed then it could be a big day for the Packers secondary.

Which scenario is it going to be? Flip a coin. This game will be decided by things you can't predict. An unsung hero who has the game of his life. A huge turnover at a key juncture that creates a momentum run that steam rolls. A big special teams play, etc. etc.

From a hunch standpoint, it seems as though it may just be Aaron Rodgers time. He has emerged as one of the top QB's in the game today after sitting behind Brett Favre for years. He is on the verge of "Super Star Status". All that's missing, is a Super Bowl ring. If the lack of a running game was a factor, they wouldn't ne here in the first place. Fact is, they have a running game. It just doesn't show up in the stats. To find their running game, you'd have to create a new stat category for short passes.

Everything is in place for the Packers to do well here. They should be able to move the ball on this fast surface. Rodgers should find open receivers all day long. After all, they have already moved the ball against some pretty good defensive units here in the playoffs under much worse playing conditions. Defensively they are every bit as good as the Steelers.

This is not a Key Release, but we won't wimp out and not take a stand one way or the other. We're going to go ahead and take the Packers here in a game that should be close most of the way.

Steve Janus

Clippers vs. Heat
Pick: Heat -11½

Even though the Clippers are playing well, Miami will be out for revenge after Los Angeles beat them to end their road winning streak earlier this season. Los Angeles is just 1-9 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score in those 10 games was Clippers 89.4, Opponent 103.6. Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Marc Lawrence

L.A. Clippers @ Miami
PICK: Miami -11.5

It’s no surprise to see the Heat playing on Super Sunday as we have a feeling that LeBron and D-Wade will be a major part of the multitude of Super Bowl props abounding today. In fact, Miami has been nothing short of super when playing on Sundays, posting a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS mark, including 3-0 SU and ATS this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers check in with a 4-13 ATS Sunday road log, including 2-10 ATS versus .400 or greater opposition. And while it’s true that the Heat haven’t been Supermen at home this season (8-14-1 ATS), they are looking to avenge a 111-105 loss in L.A. earlier this year and their 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS mark in this series as home favorites with same-season revenge may require nothing more than an appearance by Clark Kent. However, you can bet – and we will – that the Three Egos will all show up as they look to garner some of their own highlights and cash in on a few of those prop bets… with all proceeds going to The Boys and Girls Clubs of America, of course. If Vegas is brave enough to post a total points prop as in the Packers and Steelers versus James and Wade, you know which way we’ll be going. We rarely suggest laying this big a number but in the show before the show, and with the Clippers playing a 9 AM body-clock start, there’s only way to go. We recommend a 1-unit play on Miami.

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Florida State vs. North Carolina
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Even with Drew transferring not sure you can take the wind out of the super hot Tar Heels. Last time FSU played good team on road they were crushed by an average CLEM team. Barnes is going to really show why he was considered #1 Freshman.

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Saint Peters vs. Canisius
Play: Saint Peters +2.5
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St. Peters has the better numbers here. They are 6-3 after allowing 60 or less and 6-2 off a conference win. In the series they have won the last meetings vs Canisius over the last 3 years. Canisius is 3-18 after allowing 60 or less including 0-5 this season. When they come in off a win they are a paltry 3-15. They have lost 8 of 10 vs winning teams and are 8-32 long term vs teams who allow 65 or less points per game. Look for St. Peters to get the cash as a small dog here today.

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St. Louis Blues @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning
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I bet value where I see it and believe that the Tampa Bay Lightning are going to strike down the visiting St. Louis Blues.
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The Blues are coming off a 5-3 home victory over the Oilers on Friday night, but now face a highly motivated home side that's coming off a 5-2 home loss to Washington on Friday night (note that the Blues are just 1-5 their last six on the road)
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St. Louis has in fact given up a combined 12-goals in three straight road losses.
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Our sources tell us that Dan Ellis will get the start in net tonight for the home side, and he'll look to get his team back on track as it is still a stellar 6-1 its last seven overall.
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All signs point to a home rout!

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Ohio State -5.5FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Usually No. 1 teams are overvalued, but in this case Sunday the top-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes are actually showing solid value as just a 5.5-point favorite over Minnesota in my opinion. The Gophers are not playing well, losers of two straight by 12 points to Purdue and by 3 points to Indiana. Minnesota is simply overmatched here across the board as there are mismatches in Ohio State's favor everywhere that they will exploit.
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The Gophers are just 4-8 ATS at home this season, while the Buckeyes are 7-0 SU & 4-3 ATS on the road and outscoring opponents away from home by 9.3 PPG. Minnesota is 0-6 ATS in home games after playing a game as favorite this season. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Gophers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take Ohio State Sunday.

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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Miami Heat
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Even though the Clippers are playing well, Miami will be out for revenge after Los Angeles beat them to end their road winning streak earlier this season. Los Angeles is just 1-9 ATS in road games after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons. The average score in those 10 games was Clippers 89.4, Opponent 103.6. Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Ray MonohanFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Magic vs. CelticsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 192½FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Sunday at 2:30PM ET the Magic take on the Celtics in Boston in Sunday’s nationally televised contest. The Magic are averaging 100.5 PPG, the Celtics are averaging 98.8 PPG. Over is 9-1 in BOS last 10 home games. Last game out for Orlando they beat hapless Washington 110-92 on Friday. Dwight Howard had 22 points and 15 rebounds and Ryan Anderson scored 19 points while filling in for injured starter Brandon Bass. Boston lost to the Dallas Mavericks 101-97 on Friday for its second loss in four games. Not to worried about who wins this game tomorrow, we just want to see lots of points, and I'm expecting a higher scoring game. Something similar to their last game when Boston defeated the Magic 109-106 on Jan. 17. Some trends I like for this one. Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Magic last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 4-0 in Magic last 4 games following a S.U. win. Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a S.U. loss.

James Patrick SportsFOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Magicians put the Celtics away on Christmas Day in Orlando (86-78) and the unfortunate concern for the Magic this afternoon is the fact that the Mavericks upset the Boston Celtics on this court on Friday Night. The Celtics are (4-0) ATS in their last (4) Sunday games and (21-8) ATS in their last (29) games following a straight up loss. The Big Man's Sunday NBA complimentary selection is Boston Celtics.

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Philadelphia 76ers +4.5
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It once looked like the Knicks would cruise to their first playoff berth in seven seasons but New York is really struggling and the Philadelphia 76ers are coming on strong. New York fell 100-98 at Philadelphia on Friday for its ninth loss in twelve games. The 76ers, in contrast, are the team on the rise and have won six out of their last seven games and they have had a lot of success in New York where they have posted a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five visits. Take the points.