Telly
Here are my props. I have my side and total at my site always free.
Props-
Heath Miller total yardage over
Aaron Rodgers first rush attempt over 5.5 yards
Aaron Rodgers total rushing yards over 20
Big Ben more passing yards in the 2nd half.
Aaron Rodgers over 23 completions.
John Ryan
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Orlando Magic
5* graded play on the Orlando Magic as they take on the Boston Celtics set to start at 2:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Orlando Magic will lose this game by fewer than four points and have an excellent shot at winning the game.
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 218-140 using the money line for 61% winners and has made 57.1 units in profits per one unit wager since 1996. Using the money line play on any team that is outrebounding opponents by an impressive three or more boards per game and after four straight games outrebounding opponent by five or more.
Orlando ranks 4th best in the NBA in defensive rebounding getting 32.6 boards per game and fourth in total boards at 52.5 rebounds per game. By comparison, Boston ranks 16th in the NBA averaging 30.6 defensive boards per game and rank dead last in 30th position in total rebounding getting just 46.7 boards per game.
Orlando does not attack the offensive end all that much attributed to their high number of three point shots which when missed cause deep rebounds. On 3-point shots, it is not likely to see any team crash the glass as a high percentage of these missed shots bounce off toward or even beyond the 15 foot mark. If a defense gets a long rebound and the offense is crashing the glass, it makes for at minimum 2-on-1 fast breaks an easy scores.
That is why the Magic rank 16th best in offensive rebounding getting just 10.7 boards per game. Over the last week, however, the Magic have changed their style of play to include a greater amount of 2-point shots and not preferring to settle on the perimeter shot. This is evident in their offensive rebounding during this span. Over the past three games they are averaging 16 offensive boards per game.
The Magic rank dead last in the NBA in 2-point scoring at 54.2 points per game, but over the past three games they are averaging more shots from the paint area and have increased 2-point scoring to 60.0 points per game. Not surprising, the Magic rank best in the NBA in 3-point scoring at 28.5 points per game.
The fact that defenses will have an increased respect for Orlando?s power game will open up even more perimeter shooting opportunities. Note that by the Magic increasing their 2-point scoring they have also increased their 3-point scoring. They are averaging 32 points per game from 3-point shots over the past three games. Boston does not have the athleticism to defend the paint and then rotate the defense for a pass to an open shooter on the perimeter. I strongly believe you will see many pick rolls, high screens, and post-ups by the Magic and this will make for a nightmare for the Celtics to defend for the entire game.
The Magic are a solid 21-8 ATS making 12.2 units per one unit wager versus poor foul drawing teams that are attempting 24 or fewer free throws per game with the game taking place in the second half of the season over the last two seasons. Boston is just 13-26 ATS losing 15.6 units per one unit wager in home games versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls per game over the last two seasons. Take the MAGIC.
Frank Jordan
Steelers vs. Packers
Play: Over 44.5
We all know these two teams have great defenses allowing less then 30 point total per game, but the do put up a little offense too as the Packers score over 24 points a game and Pittsburgh scores over 23 points a game. More often then not the defense rules in the first half, but once the long halftime show is over the offenses have their way. So take the under in the first half, over in the second half and for the game take the over as they Green Bay spread offense will put points on the board and Pittsburgh will be fighting to keep up. Play over **BONUS** Free Prop Picks - Heads in the coin toss, Rodgers to throw a TD pass before Big Ben and a long shot Charles Woodson to have an INT.
Jordan Haimowitz
Steelers vs. Packers
Play: Under 45½
Both teams field superb defensive units, perhaps the two best In the NFL. BJ Raji, Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson and AJ Hawk are all stars for the Packers. Pittsburgh has a star at every position. They are led though by the NFLs beat defensive player I'n Troy Polomalu. Both offenses rely on the big play. Tonight that won't come. Expect a very boring game.