Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 7

Xander Locke

Panthers vs. Broncos
Play: Under 45

There are a number of reasons why this will be a low scoring game. First of all Carolina is overrated. Yes they're 15-1 in the regular season. Let's take a look at who they actually beat to get that "15-1 record". Nine of those wins came against seven teams that had losing records; Tennessee (3-10) once, Dallas (4-12) once, Jacksonville (5-11) once, Tampa Bay (6-10) twice, NY Giants (6-10) once, New Orleans (7-9) twice, and Philadelphia (7-9) once. Two of those wins came vs two teams that were at .500 for the season; Atlanta (8-8), and Indianapolis (8-8). Only four of those wins were against teams with a winning record; Houston (9-7) who was slightly better than MEDIOCRE, Washington (9-7) who was less than MEDIOCRE most of the year, Green Bay (10-6) who definitely was just not as good this year, and Seattle (10-6) the only "GOOD" team that Carolina beat in the regular season. Their only loss came against the MEDIOCRE Falcons. Arizona is the best team the Panthers have faced this year. And even though Carolina scored often vs the Cardinals, they were aided by Arizona's SEVEN turnovers.

Denver's defense will not allow the Panthers to score often. The Broncos are ranked 4th in the NFL in points allowed with 18.5 per game. And Peyton Manning definitely will not be careless with the football.

Carolina's defense also will not allow the Broncos to score often in this game. The Panthers defense is ranked 6th in the NFL in points allowed at 19.3 per game. Plus, Denver's offense has struggled to put up points, averaging just over 20 points in their last three games. Not to mention that Peyton Manning is known to choke in the postseason. The Broncos receivers have also had trouble catching the ball this postseason. Both of these teams will be extremely focused, prepared and motivated defensively. No matter who wins this game, this total won't go over 43 points.

Vegas Butcher

Carolina Panthers -5.5

There’s no denying that Carolina is the ‘better’ team in this matchup. So what makes them that? Well based on Relative Strength – basically looks at points for/against vs what the opponents scored/allowed –, a stat I like to use in the playoffs, Panthers are at +10.3 while Broncos are at +4.4 for a variance of ~ 6 in Carolina’s favor. When looking at something simpler, like point-differential, Panthers are +12.0 per game this year while Broncos are +3.7 (keep in mind, this does not adjust for strength of schedule). And when comparing DVOA, advanced efficiency metric by FootballOutsiders, Carolina’s +36% mark in the 2nd half of the year dwarfs Denver’s +16% in that same time frame (weighted DVOA for full year including playoffs has Carolina at +41% while Denver is at +22% so a similar variance). By all accounts, the Panthers are a ‘better’ team. That’s really not a surprise, as we can just take a look at the current spread and make the same determination. So the typical ‘rule of thumb’ in the playoffs is to back the “better” team regardless of the spread, especially if the spread is less than a TD. Typically the point-spread comes into play about 15-18% in the NFL during the regular season. But during a long NFL season there are many let-down spots, where a superior team underperforms and let’s an inferior one cover an ‘inflated’ spread, albeit without winning the game (that’s what defines ‘coming into play’ when we talk about the spread). The playoffs are a little different, as typically you get the ‘best’ effort from each playoff team in each game. I don’t have the data, but intuitively I believe the spread comes into play probably around 10% of the time in the post-season if the number is 7 or less. I think that’s why you often hear people say to just pick the ‘winner’, as great majority of the time the spread won’t matter. Sure, 10% of the time is enough to make or break your season of course so it’s still fairly significant, but when you are dealing with such low impact for one particular game, maybe it’s not a bad idea to ignore the spread, especially if it’s under a touchdown. My point here is this: the spread is pretty accurate. My model has it at -5 Panthers, the Relative Strength comparison has it at -6 Panthers, and the simple Point-Differential has it at -8 Panthers. We can confidently say that there’s truly not much value one way or another at this number, as there shouldn’t be. What I am going to analyze in a little more detail is this particular matchup, and explain why I believe that Carolina will exceed expectations and get the cover in Super Bowl L….I mean Super Bowl 50.

Panthers O vs Broncos D

I think after seeing what this Denver defense did to the Patriots last weekend, a lot of people might assume that the Broncos can repeat the same thing in the Super Bowl. The problem is that this Carolina offense is much different than the Patriots. The Pats lost their #1 and #2 RB’s during the year, and their inability to run the ball was actually a big detriment in the AFC Championship game. Denver’s D-linemen were able to tee-off and pass-rush Brady without much threat of a run game. That won’t be the case against the Panthers. Carolina is a top-10 offense both in the pass-game and in the run-game, and anyone who has watched the Panthers this year knows they love to pound the rock on the ground. While Denver only had to prepare to defend Patriots’ ONE option on offense (passing game), they will have to account for THREE different options against the Panthers - run with the RB, pass, or run with Cam Newton. That drastically changes Denver’s approach. Ware and Miller must be that much more cognizant of the play, and won’t be able to just blindly rush the passer every snap. Additionally, Panthers love to run the zone-read, with Newton reading the edge rusher prior to making a decision on whether to hand off the ball to a RB or to keep it himself. This Panthers offense is very creative in this sense, and I believe their ability to disguise the type of a play they run will go a long way to slowing down Denver’s pass rush.

While Brady got hit 23 times in the AFC Championship game (that’s the most in any game this year and most in quite a few years I believe), I don’t see Denver’s pass-rush having the same impact against Cam Newton. Preparing for one type of play call (pass, pass, and more pass) is one thing, but to prepare to defend 3+ potential plays (RB handoff, pass, QB run, zone-read, reverse with Ted Ginn, etc) at any given time is much more difficult. And I haven’t even mentioned the fact that Cam Newton is exceptional at avoiding pressure and picking up yards down the field with his legs on broken plays or the fact that he’s been a superior passer against the blitz all season long. If Denver’s front-4 isn’t generating enough pass-rush themselves, will the Broncos start blitzing more than they had to against NE (blitzed a season-low amount as there was no need to do so really)? This Broncos’ D has their work cut out for them, and I expect to see a much different result than Denver produced against the Pats. But don’t take my word for it, let’s take a look at how this Panthers’ offense has performed in the post-season so far…facing off against two other elite defenses:

vs Seattle’s 3rd ranked D @ -21% w-DvOA: 24 offensive points in 1 half @ 4.6 YPP

vs Arizona’s 7th ranked D @ -11% w-DvOA: 42 offensive points @ 7.2 YPP

I’ve mentioned only Carolina’s performance in the 1st half against Seattle because the Panthers seemed to take the ‘foot off the pedal’ in that one, after sporting a 31-0 lead at half-time. They ended up running (no pun intended) 41 rushing plays to only 22 pass plays (65% run-rate), and thus bringing their YPP (Yards Per Play) average down to 4.6 as Seattle’s elite run-defense held them to 3.5 YPC average. The “lackadaisical” effort against Seattle in the 2nd half, led to a massive comeback by the Seahawks (a lot of that had to do with Seattle themselves of course as that team was truly an elite squad this year), resulting in a final margin which was much closer than it should have been. I think the Panthers learned from that, because a week later, after taking a 24-7 half-time lead against the Cardinals, they proceeded to score 25 more points in the 2nd half with Cam registering a 12-yard TD run late in the 3rd and a 5-yard TD pass late in the 4th quarters. Panthers didn’t just hand off the ball to Stewart all of second half trying to preserve the lead, they aggressively attacked the Cardinals into submission, with Newton being very active in both halves. I think we should expect a similar approach against the Broncos. Denver has the best D in the league this year with a #1 ranking and w-DvOA of -22% (slightly higher than Seattle’s -21%). I expect Carolina to attack them with everything they have at their disposal and to eventually wear the Broncos out. One key factor in this matchup is Denver’s 31st rank in Power Situations (3rd/4th down and 1-2 yards to go), an area where Carolina’s run-offense ranks 2nd in the league. With the Panthers grinding out yards offensively, I like their chances of picking up crucial first-downs (and maybe even TD’s) in short-yardage situations, especially with a QB like Newton at their disposal. The more 1st downs they can pick up the more Denver’s interior D will wear out, and the slower the pass-rush will be as the game goes on. And if that truly happens to be the case in the 2nd half, don’t expect the Panthers to let-up offensively (like they did against Seattle) but to continue to attack aggressively (like they did against Arizona) until the final whistle. This type of an aggressive approach will be needed as we’ll need the Panthers to cover the spread.

Broncos O vs Panthers D

I’ve spoken a lot about why Denver’s D won’t have the same success in stopping this Panther’s offense the way they did against the Pats, but let’s not forget that there are two “elite” defenses in this matchup. Let’s compare some key advanced stats between the two:

Denver D: -22% wDVOA (#1); -28% pass (#1); -23% run (#4); #1 ASR%; #3 ALY; +4.4 RS-D

Panthers D: -18% wDVOA (#5); -18% pass (#2); -19% run (#6); #11 ASR%; #4 ALY; +3.4 RS-D

RS-D is simply “Relative Strength on Defense” of each team, or the fewer points allowed than the opponents’ average points scored offensively. (So DEN allowed 4.4 fewer points on average than their opponents have averaged offensively this season and Carolina allowed 3.4 fewer). As you can see above, each team’s defenses are very close to one another in quality. Panthers’ one weakness are their corner-backs behind Josh Norman, but if there’s one offense that is least likely to take advantage of that it’s the Broncos. That’s because the biggest edge that the Panthers have in this game is their Defense against Denver’s terrible Offense. I’ve compared the RS-D for each team above, but when you compare each team’s RS-O (same logic, just for offenses), you can see the huge mismatch: Carolina +6.9 while Denver is at exactly +0.0. And don’t forget, a lot of that has to do with Brock Osweiler playing QB, as I’m sure this number was in the negative with Manning under center. Peyton Manning is one of the greatest QB’s of all time, but he’s way past his prime. His -26% DVOA was 36th this season (there are only 32 NFL teams in the league) while his 9 : 17 TD:INT rate was the worst out of any starting quarterback that made more than 5 starts in the league. This is a TO-prone player with no mobility and very limited arm-strength. Carolina’s defense returned an INT for a TD in each of their playoff games so far. Chances are decent (comparatively speaking as pick-6’s are very very very rare of course) that we might see it a 3rd time. At the very least, Carolina should be in a good position to force some TO’s. Their D-line is excellent at stopping the run (4th in run-D DVOA and 3rd in Adjusted Line yards allowed) and against a Denver team with a run-heavy offensive game plan that is a critical factor. Stop the run, pressure Manning on 3rd down, and get your offense on the field as frequently as possible. I think the Panthers will have success doing so. Take a look at how Denver’s offense has fared so far this postseason:

vs PIT: 23 points and 4.6 YPP, needing a comeback against a banged up PIT squad

vs NE: 20 points and 3.8 YPP, barely hanging on in a game where Pats’ offense couldn’t do anything

Steelers and Patriots rank 8th and 15th in defensive w-DvOA respectively. Panthers’ D is much better. Plus the Broncos won’t be playing at home anymore. If they can generate about 20 points per game and about 4.2 YPP at home against PIT/NE, what can we realistically expect at a neutral stadium against a top-5 defense? Honestly, it feels like 16-17 points is Denver’s ceiling in this one. I think it’ll be very difficult for Denver to score much more than that, unless Carolina makes a bunch of mistakes on special-teams and/or turns the ball over offensively.

Final Thoughts

Bottom line here is that Panthers are a better team, they have a huge edge on the offensive end (especially at QB), and they are the ones coming into this game virtually blowing away every single one of their opponents in the playoffs. Both Seattle and Arizona have been tougher opponents than the injury-riddled Pittsburgh (Brown, both RB’s) and Patriots (O-line and running backs), yet the Panthers have made it look very easy, while the Broncos have struggled to pull out their wins. I know typically this kind of analysis is dangerous in the regular season, but I think in the playoffs this gives us a good snapshot of each team’s current form. I believe Carolina is the right side in this one and think this game has a strong potential for a blowout victory.

Don Anthony

Peyton Manning for Super Bowl 50 MVP.

This prop is basically a small bet on the Denver Broncos. Denver to win outright is currently +200. Taking Manning to win MVP is +400. We're basically getting double the payout and if Denver wins the Super Bowl, I believe the NFL will do whatever it can to give Manning the MVP trophy for his last rodeo because it seems almost certain he will retire, especially after his post-game talk with Bill Belichick, after the AFC Championship victory.

Also, another one of my favorite prop(s) is taking almost every Demaryius Thomas prop UNDER. So far I see his total yardage at 67.5 and his total receptions at 5.5. Love the total receptions under. I expect Norman to completely take him out of the game. Thomas is also prone to the dropped ball early on and Peyton and Demaryius do not seem to have solid chemistry right now. Expect Manning to look for Sanders way more often (hint, hint.)

Wunderdog

Field Goals Under 3.5

Bet this game at Diamond Sports In 2015, the average number of field goals per game was 3.26. Both of these teams averaged 1.88 field goals made per game. So this total is about right based on those numbers. But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal. Teams are generally less conservative overall in the big game when all is said and done. Its all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the field. If a team is ahead, they dont want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If a team is behind, they are not playing to keep it close they are playing to win the game. So, there are fewer field goals in the Super Bowl than in your average NFL game. Through the first 49 Super Bowls, there have only been 125 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.55 per game. In only 12 of the 49 games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 24.5% and fair odds on that are -308. Yet, we get -120 odds here. This bet should come through about 75% of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop.

Ari Atari

Panthers vs. Broncos
Play: Under 45

We're looking at two very tough defensive teams allowing less than 20 a game all season. Denver allows 18.3 while Carolina comes in a 19.3. The Superbowl total is set at 45 and there is enough room for this one to be dominated by defense and stay under the total. I wouldn't recommend a play on the total for over 1 unit and I STRONGLY recommend you save your money for a better wager on the Superbowl.

Allen Eastman

First Team To Score Wins The Game: Yes

I will be wrapping up my football season with my Super Bowl plays this weekend and I would love to have you playing along with me. As for this prop bet I am following history. Through the first 49 Super Bowls this has been the pattern, with the team that scores first going on to win the game 34 of 49 times. That is a nearly 70 percent trend at work. With two very good teams and with two outstanding defenses, I think that is going to be the case here as well.

Alan Harris

Total Field Goals Over 3.5 -120

Any time you have two teams with good defenses meeting, the games are usually close, which plays right into our hands here with this prop wager. We see both teams being able to move the ball between the 20s pretty easily on Sunday, but once they enter the red zone look for both defenses to clamp down a bit and force a bunch of field goal attempts. Also, favoring us here are the actual kickers, which is a good thing to have on your side in a field goal prop. Both Brandon McManus and Graham Gano were in the Top 5 in field goals made this season with 30 each and both have a decent enough leg (Gano: Long FG 52 yards and McManus: Long FG 57 yards) that Ron Rivera and Gary Kubiak won't have an issue sending either guy out for a 50+ yard attempt. Throw in the fact that the two kickers are a combined 10/10 here the playoffs on their FG attempts and we'll play the over as the Weekly Newsletter Free Play as we expect both teams to have a bend-but-don't-break philosophy on defense, leading to enough FG tries from both sides to put this one over the number on Sunday.

Teddy Covers

Carolina Over 4.5 players to get a Rush Attempt +140

Jonathan Stewart will be the starting running back. Cam Newton had at least three rushing attempts in every game, averaging just shy of eight per contest. Fullback Mike Tolbert had at least one rush in 17 of the Panthers 18 games; at least two rushes in 16 of those games. Those three are virtual ‘locks’ to get a carry.

But at least four other Panthers have a decent shot to get a carry on Sunday, making the Over 4.5 a worthy wager at this attractive plus price. I wrote up my rational for Ted Ginn above. Corey Brown is another speedster, with six rushing attempts during the regular season, five of which gained seven yards or more. Backup RB Cameron Artis Payne had 36 carries in four games down the stretch, and he’s certainly could to see the field here after missing the NFC Championship Game. And third down back Fozzy Whittaker, banged up down the stretch, is ‘live’ to get a carry (or two, or three) as well. Whittaker had 16 carries in their final four regular season games and two more in the NFC title game.

Randall the Handle

Panthers 17-1 vs. Broncos 14-4

If we look back to the mid-1990s, we find Super Bowls that had prohibitive favourites in games that most people thought the underdog had no chance in.

In five seasons from 1994 through 1998, the shortest price had the Cowboys as a 10½-point choice over the Bills. The 49ers were an outrageous 18½-point pick over the Chargers in the ’95 game, winning by 23 points. The only question posed in those Super Bowls was how many points the favourite was going to win by.

We bring this up simply because this 50th anniversary edition of the NFL championship is being treated the same way.

Everywhere you go, or almost anyone you speak to, has conceded this game to the Panthers.

It’s understandable. Carolina has lost just one football game in the past 14 months, a span of 22 games. It produced the highest scoring offence in the league this season, averaging 31.3 points per game. In the two playoff games paving the path to San Francisco, the Panthers knocked off a pair of solid NFC West opponents by a dominant 80-39 combined score.

All of this production is centered on one player, that being the dynamic Cam Newton.

Primed to be named league MVP, Newton has exceptional skills in most facets of the game. Now in his fifth year, the talented 6-foot-5 quarterback can hurt you with both his passing and running abilities. Including the post-season, Newton has thrown 38 touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions while damaging opponents on the ground for 686 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Running, throwing or dabbing, he is a force to be reckoned with. You don’t stop Cam, you just hope to slow him down.

Complementing this proficient offence, the Panthers deploy a rugged sixth-ranked defence. Led by stars Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman, Carolina had the league’s best takeaway margin (+20) after pouncing on 39 turnovers while giving the ball away only 19 times.

No doubt about it, this is a complete team and one that is certainly capable of winning this weekend. However, unlike that era in the ’90s, we’re not simply going to hand over the trophy.

We see it all the time in sports. Offence gets the headlines, defence gets the rings.

With its love for scoring (basketball good, soccer bad), the public gravitates toward offence. It’s no wonder they inflated the opening line of Carolina -3½ to as high as -6 leading up this game.

John Q. Bettor saw the Panthers march up and down the field against the Seahawks and Cardinals, two pretty good defensive squads. They also haven’t forgotten how Cam and company racked up points and victories throughout the year.

Also aiding this line jump is the apparent decline of Peyton Manning.

Reduced to more of a game manager, Peyton relies on his defence to keep games close enough to where he can generate just enough offence to pull off wins.

Watching it does not inspire confidence. As sexy goes, this is Kate Upton versus Shrek.

Treating Denver the same way we would the aforementioned large underdogs would be unfair, however.

The Broncos bring something to the table here, that being an exceptional defence. A unit such as this one is being offered a generous amount of points. We have a hard time refusing them.

Denver allowed a league-low 283.1 yards per game and was fourth best in points permitted at 18.5 per game.

Wade Phillips’ stop unit was No. 1 in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and was tops in sacks. The Panthers will not bully Denver’s linebackers the way they manhandled a mediocre Arizona bunch. Nor will they run the ball with the ease that a run down and mostly inadequate defensive line like Seattle’s gave way to.

Carolina has not seen maniacal pass rushers like Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware this season. Phillips being afforded two weeks to implement some pressure packages for those two should be cause for concern to Panthers supporters.

With a top unit of Chris Harris, Aqib Talib and Bradley Roby patrolling the secondary, Carolina’s meagre receiving corps may have trouble getting untracked.

Denver’s defence is legit. It is capable of stopping anything that comes its way. Just ask the Steelers and Patriots, two teams that ranked third and fourth, respectively, in scoring this year but were each held to fewer than 20 points in playoff games against the Broncos.

Overlooked in the analysis of this championship game is Denver’s offence. Granted, Manning does not scare the bejeebers out of defences as he once did.

However, the future Hall of Famer brings along a football acumen that is second to none. He’ll get to work against a Panthers defence that has been able to mask injuries to some key people after cornerbacks Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman were both lost late in the year and replaced by guys not signed to an NFL roster.

With big leads in both playoff games thus far, Carolina hasn’t had to contend with this issue. Manning certainly possesses the prowess to exploit it. He has an underappreciated receiving corps to do so. The combination of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders accumulated more receiving yards (2,439) than Carolina’s entire wide receiving group (2,263).

Denver has also seen running back C.J. Anderson up his game recently, and that’s another element the Panthers defence will have to contend with. It certainly doesn’t help that talented linebacker Charles Davis busted his arm last game but will attempt to give it a go here.

Let’s also not forget that this is a neutral site game, considered road games for each. Despite winning, the Panthers were not as dominant away from home. They have not been out of Charlotte since a December 27 game in Atlanta, a match that resulted in Carolina’s only loss. The week prior, in New Jersey, saw the Giants fight back from a 35-7 deficit only to lose 38-35. The Panthers have not won a road game by more than the required six points needed here since a late November victory at Dallas.

Meanwhile, the Broncos went 6-2 on the road this season. In addition, Denver have been underdogs five times and are an unblemished 5-0 against the spread in those contests while winning four of the five straight up.

In the end, we realize that Denver’s offence might be ordinary with Manning guiding it. But elite defences have a way of making such offences look good because of field position, turnovers and forcing opposing defences to wear down from being on the field too long.

It’s a formula that has worked well for previous champions and it is one that should work well enough on this day to earn the underdog a cover.

TAKING: BRONCOS +5½

Bob Balfe

Panthers -5.5

The super bowl is not a game, it is an event. Vegas has all of their man power breaking down the numbers and focusing on just one game, this makes it harder for the average gamblers to bet because you can’t find true value. This is the time of year where $100 players bet $1000 on the game, don’t be that person. Remember that a play is a play.

When the line went up two weeks ago there has been non stop talk about how the money is all over Carolina. How many people are really flying out to Vegas to bet two weeks before the game? ESPN themselves have done multiple articles about the betting public being all over Carolina. Las Vegas is not in business to let the world know where the bets are coming in and where the money is coming in. That secret is their edge. I have a theory and I believe they do things like that on purpose to get the sharp bettors to wager on Denver. I admit when I first saw all of the reports I made my case for Denver and for the good part of these two weeks they were my front runner, but after breaking down the game there was one thing that I just could not look past. TURNOVERS.

Peyton Manning clearly is not what he once was and sadly this year he has been a turnover machine. The best team in the NFL at forcing and creating turnovers is Carolina. We really could leave this write up right at that. This Carolina Defense puts their offense in position to score. The Panthers work on short fields which makes putting up points pretty easy. The Broncos Defense is very impressive and they obviously have the talent to win this game by themselves, but you really are asking a lot from this unit to carry their below average offensive on their backs for yet another game.

Now let us save the best for last. Cam Newton is a tremendous talent that can punish defensive players by running the ball. Denver has not seen a QB like his all year. You could make a small comparison to Alex Smith of the Chiefs, but it is a small comparison. Carolina pushes all the right buttons to win on both sides of the ball and if we look at recent past history in the super bowl then we know this is the type of team that usually cashes the ticket in these big games. Denver is an $80 flight and it takes a little over an hour to get to Las Vegas. I don’t believe for one second that there is lopsided money on this game and I believe we are going to see all of the late money come in on Denver on game day.

Here are my closing thoughts and I will keep them simple. Carolina leads the NFL in turnovers. If they can’t beat a guy that is the oldest QB to start a super bowl and who turned the ball over more than any other QB this year than so be it. I can live with that type of loss.

It has been a good season for us and I thank all of you who were on board this year.

Coin Toss – Tails -105

Who will catch first TD Pass Denver – Emanuel Sanders 10/1 odds Carolina – Jerricho Cotchery 25/1 odds

Longest TD in game – Under 44.5 yards -115

Total successful Field Goals – Over 3.5

Longest Field Goal in game – Over 44 Yards -125

Will both teams have Field Goals Over 33 yards? – YES

Total receiving yards for Jerricho Cotchery – Over 21.5

Will there be a special teams or defensive score? – YES +140

Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes 30 seconds of the game? – NO -115

Team to commit the most turnovers? – Broncos -140

Wayne Root

Broncos (+5½) over Panthers & Under 45

Denver Broncos 1) Wayne''s LIFETIME RECORD (as a professional sports handicapper): 21 of 30 Super Bowls, 70% WINNERS! 2) Classic "Sharps vs Squares" matchup- every smart professional will be on Denver, every amateur on Carolina- because of hype about Cam. Edge: Denver and sharps. 3) This is an EXTREME version- as of today it''s the most lopsided Super Bowl betting in history...and one of the top 5 most lopsided of any NFL Postseason game EVER. *Classic exciting, sexy offense vs great D- masses of public always bet Offense (they can''t resist)...D almost always wins. I''ve bet games like this for 31 years. Edge: Denver. 4) The team with chip on shoulder almost always wins- that team is Denver. Disrespected, almost considered a chump in media. 2 years ago that team was Seattle versus Denver and Peyton! Now it''s Peyton. Edge: Denver. 5) Weather- Peyton is terrible in weather below 40 degrees. Has been his whole career. 2 years ago...he played in New York for Super Bowl. While balmy by NY in February standards, it was below 40 degrees. That hurt his effectiveness (and psychology). This Super Bowl will be in beautiful weather- as of now forecast is 68 degrees and sunny. Edge: Denver. 6) I always play the better D if they are getting points- statistically Denver is better D. Edge: Denver. 7) The team with better D and better Special Teams stats too, getting points, is almost unbeatable in postseason games. Denver has statistically better in BOTH. Edge: Denver. 8) Line moves- line opened +3 1/2. Today it''s 6. That alone is very significant. Those 2 1/2 points could determine the game. Denver now covers or pushes all the statistically important NFL numbers- 3, 4 and 6. Edge: Denver. 9) The team with the worst recordhas won almost every recent Super Bowl. Again that plays into "chip on shoulder" psychology. Carolina is 17-1. Edge: Denver. 10) The most important trend of all- the team that comes from behind in the most games during season has won almost every Super Bowl in modern history- it proves they deal well with adversity and play well under stress in a "big game." I define "come from behind" as behind 7 or more at any time in any game...and behind at any time in 2nd half. Carolina came from behind 6 times Denver 9 times Edge: Denver ---------------- According to William Hill US Sportsbook, 93% of the money wagered against the spread so far has come in on the Panthers. In addition, 81 percent of the tickets have had Carolina listed on them. Denver was a dark horse candidate to even make it to this point. No one should write the Broncos off quite yet, especially on the biggest stage of them all. And with the smartest QB to ever hit the field and with the best defense in the NFL backing him up. The key for Denver winning the Super Bowl is their number one ranked defense. They took apart the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Von Miller and Demarcus Ware will need to get after Cam Newton and put him under the same pressure Tom Brady felt. The Broncos defense led the NFL in average yards allowed (283.2), sacks (52), has yielded 34 points and 568 total yards in two playoff games, and hit Tom Brady 23 times in the conference title game. The magic continues as defense wins Championships. Manning wins and then retires. (the money line is currently at +190).

Super Bowl Props

Denver. -2.5. +210
First score of game: Denver field goal.
Will there be an overtime. Yes, +700
Total points scored by Carolina. Under 25, -105
First team to score 10 PT''s or more; Denver. +140
Will the game be decided by exactly 3 points? Yes +350
MVP Von Miller. 20/1
Owen Daniels total receiving yards. Over 31.5. -120
Emmanuel Sanders total pass receptions over 5.5. -115
Will Denver score a TD in the 3rd quarter? Yes. +125
Alternative game total. Under 38.5 +240
Largest lead of game by either team. Under 13.5. +160

Super Bowl 50 Prop Predictions
VegasInsider.com

Sportsbook.ag, a major offshore betting outfit, has released hundreds of proposition wagers for Super Bowl 50 between the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos.

Listed below, in no particular order, are nine of the most wagered props at Sportsbook.ag.

Similar to past Super Bowls, we asked seven of our NFL analysts and handicappers to make a prediction on the nine popular props.

1) Will Either Team Score 3 Straight Times w/o Other Team Scoring?
(Conversions Excluded)
Yes -170 No +140

Brian Edwards: YES
Chris David: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Joe Nelson: YES
Joe Williams: NO
Tony Mejia: NO
Matt Zylbert: NO

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts: Matt Zylbert - These bets are extremely tough because even if the game plays out like a tight, competitive contest, there's still a chance "No" loses. For instance, in last year's Super Bowl, it was close the whole way and tight as could be (ie. coming down to the very last offensive play), but ultimately, there was a team that scored three consecutive times -- the Seahawks. That mostly had to do with the fact they kicked a field goal to end the first half, and then received the ball first to start the second half, which resulted in points as well. A drive or two later, they made it three consecutive scores, so "No" backers ended up getting gypped despite the back-and-forth nature of Super Bowl 49.

2) Will there be a Safety?
No -700 Yes +475

Brian Edwards: NO
Chris David: NO
Kevin Rogers: NO
Joe Nelson: NO
Joe Williams: NO
Tony Mejia: NO
Matt Zylbert: NO

Consensus: NO

Quick Thoughts: Chris David – A safety has occurred in nine of the 49 Super Bowls and four of those 2-pointers came in the last seven finales. The odds have been adjusted due to the popularity of this prop and the value lies with “No” despite its heavy risk. Make a note that none of the last four safeties occurred via sacks or tackles in the end zone.

3) Carolina QB Cam Newton - Total Rushing Yards
Over 42.5 (-105) Under 42.5 (-125)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts: Matt Zylbert - Panthers QB Cam Newton is the type of guy that wants to put his team on his back, and in the biggest game of his career with the whole world watching, I believe there's a solid chance he may run a bit more than usual. He’s eclipsed this number in eight of 18 games and just fell under in another three.

4) Carolina WR Ted Ginn Jr. - Total Receptions
Over 3.5 (+145) Under 3.5 (-180)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: UNDER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts: Kevin Rogers - In five of the final seven games, Ginn caught less than three passes, while making only two total receptions in the playoff wins over Seattle and Arizona. Cam Newton has spread the ball around this season with no true #1 target, so there is a distinct possibility that Ginn could make seven catches or one catch.

5) Carolina WR Corey Brown - Total Receptions
Over 3.5 (+140) Under 3.5 (-170)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts: Tony Mejia – WR Ted Ginn will be on the field for the threat he represents, especially since QB Cam Newton can threaten via deep ball to keep safeties honest, but he’s been targeted 3 times or less in four the last five games. Corey “Philly” Brown has been targeted three or more times in each of the last four and could be a breakout candidate. The call here is to ride with the lesser known Ohio State product catching at least four passes as a prop to cash on.

6) Carolina LB Luke Kuechly - Total Solo+Assisted Tackles
Over 8.5 (-160) Under 8.5 (+130)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts: Matt Zylbert - As terrific as Carolina cornderback Josh Norman has been this year, Luke Kuechly is the longstanding leader of that ferocious Panthers defense, and I envision him having a big game in this one and he’s never off the field since he’s the best coverage backer in the game. He’s averaging over 10 combined tackles (solos & assists) in games where he’s played all four quarters. In the playoffs, he posted 11 and eight versus the Seahawks and Panthers respectively.

7) Denver QB Peyton Manning - Total Passing Yards
Over 238.5 (-115) Under 238.5 (-115)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: OVER
Joe Williams: OVER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts: Joe Nelson - In seven of his first nine starts of the season Peyton Manning threw for 256 yards or more. He didn’t hit that mark with lower passing performances in the two playoff wins but in both of those games the Broncos had the early lead. The game with Pittsburgh proved to be a defense and field goal game and Denver never trailed against the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Carolina ranked 16th in the NFL in passing yards per game allowed and three of the last four quarterbacks to face the Panthers threw for over 300 yards. Expect Carolina to want Manning to throw the ball as they likely won’t apply the same aggressive pressure they did against Carson Palmer as they will be more fearful of the Denver running game and will dare Manning and his high interception rate to try for big plays against a very opportunistic defense. As the underdog if the Broncos fall behind they may also be forced to throw more than they would ideally like to and Manning’s numbers could climb.

8) Denver RB C.J. Anderson - Total Rushing Yards
Over 60.5 (-115) Under 60.5 (-115)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: OVER
Kevin Rogers: OVER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: OVER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: OVER

Quick Thoughts: Chris David – The Broncos have run the ball 30-plus times in each of their playoff wins and while they split the carries between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman, the speedy Anderson has accounted for more touches and yards between the pair. His career average is a ridiculous 8.6 yards per carry and as long as he gets close to 15 touches, this number should be eclipsed easily. Make a note that Carolina’s defense is allowing 4 YPC this season and that number has jumped a bit (4.3) in the postseason.

9) Denver WR Demaryius Thomas - Total Receiving Yards
Over 69.5 (-115) Under 69.5 (-115)

Brian Edwards: OVER
Chris David: UNDER
Kevin Rogers: UNDER
Joe Nelson: UNDER
Joe Williams: UNDER
Tony Mejia: UNDER
Matt Zylbert: OVER

Consensus: UNDER

Quick Thoughts: Joe Nelson - In seven of his last nine games Demaryius Thomas has been held to 61 or fewer receiving yards. Some of those games were with Brock Osweiler at quarterback but on the season Thomas only had four 100-yard receiving games. In two playoff games with Manning back under center Thomas had just six catches for a combined total of 52 yards. Thomas will draw a lot of attention from the Carolina defense and with his decline in production and targets late in the season Thomas proved to be a worse receiver. Thomas has just 43 catches against 89 targets over his last nine games with several notable drops and the three-time pro bowler isn’t the same receiver in this offense as he was in his big seasons of years past. Expect cornerback Josh Norman to frequently be paired with Thomas and opposing quarterbacks had the lowest rating in the NFL against Norman compared with all NFL corners.

Bruce Marshall

Tulsa -7

Big payback game for Tulsa, which apparently left its shooting glasses at the hotel when missing a staggering 23 of 26 beyond the arc in their never-close 15-point loss at Hofheinz Pavilion on Jan. 27 (also the Golden Hurricane's only spread L over the past month, prior to Thursday's game at Temple). Tulsa sr. star G James Woodard (16.2 ppg, but only 3 for 21 treys past three games thru Feb. 3) is admittedly struggling with his long-range accuracy in recent games, but he's still connecting on nearly 40% three-balls for the season. Frank Haith's team also hasn't lost in its last four spread decisions as host (which include an impressive win over UConn) and catches the Cougars off their rousing Monday upset of SMU.

Ken Thomson

Iona -10

I doubt Deyshonee Much has 8 three pointers in a game like he did for Iona is their 18 point win Thursday night at Canisius. The Gaels however are on a roll and should not be slowed down too much by Niagara. A.J. English continues to lead the way for Iona, doing what it takes. In the win over the Golden Griffins, Alex's son had only 10 points but he chipped in with 8 boards and 14 assists. Look for A.J. to to have a big afternoon scoring the ball in this one with help from Rountree, Washington & Much. If the Gaels don't let the Purple Eagles dictate a tempo that will put us back to bed, they should take care of business by double digits.