Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Utah at OREGON (-5')
The STORYLINE in this game today - Been amazing to see how rapidly Oregon has climbed to the top of the Pac-12, but the Ducks are taking over, and there may not be anything the rest of the league can do about it, even the preseason-favored Arizona Wildcats. Thanks to consistency at both ends of the floor, I like the Ducks to roll over the Utah Utes today.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is homecourt edge. The 16th-ranked Ducks have enjoyed home dominance this season, as the crowd gets rowdy and Oregon becomes possessed. The Utes are going to have to battle the mental aspect of this, as well as the potent Ducks, who have emerged as the Pac-12's best team, because of their balanced up-tempo offense and playmaking defense.
BOTTOM LINE is - The Ducks have recorded five consecutive wins and eight over a nine games, including a 77-59 victory over these same Utes, back on Jan. 14 in Utah. The Ducks have won eight of nine in this series and 21 straight home games. They roll into this game after Thursday's 76-56 rout of Colorado, in a game that Oregon held the Buffaloes to 33.8 percent shooting.
2* OREGON
Brad Wilton
Here we have one team that has been playing them low - Denver. On the other side we have another team that has been playing the high - Carolina.
Which way do you go with the total in this game?
I say we play it high. Knowing that most Super Bowls feature inflated totals, the fact remains the last 3 championship games, and 5 of the last 7 title games overall have landed Over the total. That includes Denver's game against Seattle a couple of years ago.
You have to figure that even though Peyton Manning has done a wonderful job protecting the pigskin in the playoffs, his regular season interceptions are alarming enough to factor in a turnover or two in this contest.
The Panthers defense has been able to get scores off of both Russell Wilson and Carson Palmer in their pair of playoff victories, and both of those games also played Over the total.
Carolina has seen the Over cash in in 10 of their last 14 games played since the regular season too.
Let's go Over in Super Bowl 50.
2* CAROLINA-DENVER OVER
Chris Jordan
My free play for Super Sunday is on the Atlanta Hawks laying a small number on the road, at Orlando against the beleaguered Magic. I don't necessarily understand the line, as the Hawks are going for a fourth straight win while looking to extend their dominance of the Magic.
While I know Atlanta closed a disappointing January with five losses in six games, the Hawkss have bounced back with three straight wins by an average of 19.7 points. The Hawks have scored 112.7 per game during the win streak to move atop the Southeast Division by one-half game over Miami.
The Hawks are in after shooting 51.3 percent for the game while limiting the Indiana Pacers to 30.2 in the second half of Friday's 102-96 win. Now it's on to Orlando, which has averaged 87.7 points while losing 17 of the last 20 matchups against the Hawks, and eight of 10 at home.
And since the Magic have been horrendous during the new year, losing 15 of 17 and allowing 105.4 points per game after ranking sixth in the NBA at 98.4, this is going to be another blowout loss.
Orlando has allowed a minimum of 107 in eight straight games and dropped their seventh in that span with a 107-93 setback to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday. Today could be worse, even on its own court.
2* ATLANTA
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Atlanta Hawks as the small road favorite in Orlando.
The Hawks have a little something cooking as they head to the All-Star break, as Atlanta has won and covered 3 straight and will be facing an Orlando team that is in the midst of a 2-15 tailspin that includes a 98-81 setback at Philips Arena back on January 18th.
Atlanta has now won the last 4 in this series, and 6 of 7 overall. They have also covered in each of their last 3 wins against the sinking Magic.
Orlando cannot wait to get to the break and regroup, while Atlanta looks to be picking up steam for the stretch drive.
Go ahead and lay it with the Hawks on the road this Sunday afternoon.
3* ATLANTA
Scott Delaney
The Miami Heat have enjoyed a recent surge, and now they're going to prove themselves against one of the Western Conference's best, the Los Angeles Clippers.
I like the Heat to earn their seventh win in eight tries today, while they're earn a split of the season series with the Clippers. There is plenty of motivation, too, as they're sitting a mere one-half game behind Atlanta for the Southeast Division lead.
So with just two games remaining before the All-Star Break - one less than the Hawks - Miami will be geared to close out this week on a poisitve run.
The Heat have won six of seven after knocking off the feisty Hornets, 98-95, in Charlotte on Friday. And while the Clippers can provide a challenge, I don't think they're going to be themselves in this one, on the road, and shorthanded.
Take the home team.
5* MIAMI
Dave Price
South Florida +16
The SMU Mustangs had their perfect season come to an end with a loss at Temple two weeks back. They proceeded to go on an lose their next road game at Houston, so they are 0-2 in their last two road games now. The Mustangs have come to the realization that they won't be playing in the postseason, which has to be painful to these players and a major distraction. That could help explain their sub-par play here of late due to this postseason ban that's looming. South Florida has been playing much better of late, going 3-1 ATS in its last 4 games overall, which includes outright road wins as underdogs at Houston and Tulane. The Bulls only lost by 14 at SMU in their first meeting back on January 2nd, and now they're catching 16 points at home in the rematch in revenge mode. There's some serious value with the Bulls here.
Scott Rickenbach
Manhattan vs. Fairfield
Play: Over 147
The common play here is likely to be Fairfield as the Stags seek revenge against the Jaspers today on Sunday. However, I see the value here on the total moreso that the side. That's because we've seen this total drop by a couple points this morning and there is reason to believe both offenses will be hot on Sunday. The Stags are off of back to back games where they've struggled on offense and this is certainly rare as Fairfield is averaging 78.4 points per game on the season. Manhattan comes into this game confident as, not only did they beat the Stags last month, the Jaspers have won 3 of their past 4 games heading into this match-up and they've shot at least 45.8% from the field in each of those 3 victories. The Jaspers scored 94 points at Canisius earlier this season and their hot shooting performance in their most recent game has Manhattan set up perfectly to make some noise in this road game Sunday. Fairfield is happy to be back home after an ugly road loss at Monmouth and after also suffering rare home loss in their most recent home game. Prior to that, the Stags had scored at least 82 points in more than half of their home games. Their offense gets right back on track at home.
Jack Jones
Sacramento Kings +7
The Boston Celtics are in a massive letdown spot here Sunday against the Sacramento Kings. They are coming off their biggest win of the season in dramatic fashion on Friday night.
Indeed, the Cavs snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with an offensive rebound on a free throw, followed by a game-winning 3-pointer at the buzzer from Avery Bradley to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers 104-103 on the road Friday. They avenged their 4-game sweep at the hands of the Cavs in the playoffs last year, and now it's only human nature for them to have a letdown following that kind of a win.
The Kings come in undervalued due to going 1-6 SU & 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. But this team was just on the verge of being the #8 team in the Western Conference playoff race, and they certainly want to get it turned around before the All-Star Break, which starts today against Boston.
Boston is 51-81 ATS in its last 132 home games off an upset win as an underdog. The Celtics are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games. Boston is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. Western Conference foes.
Ray Monohan
Oregon -6½
The Ducks welcome in the Utes for a Pac 12 clash and Oregon is a much better team of the two here. Oregon has risen to the top of the Pac 12 thanks to fast paced, up and down offense along with their patent high pressure defense.They've rattled off 5 straight wins and have won 8 of 9 overall.
The Ducks are 19-4 overall for the first time since 2006-07 and stand 8-2 in the league for the first time since 2001.Oregon defeated Utah on the road by 18 just a few weeks back and they have plenty of value here in this spot again. The Ducks have won the last five meetings and shot 54% from the field in the victory earlier this season.
The Utes are going to try to rebound from a rough 71-69 loss at the Beavers on Thursday and I just don't see it happening. Utah are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games, and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Oregon. Ducks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Brandon Lee
Illinois +10
There's no question that Iowa is the better team in this matchup, but as we saw last night with Penn State knocking off Indiana, no team is safe on the road in the Big 10. This is a very similar spot for Iowa as it was for the Hoosiers yesterday. The Hawkeyes are rolling and have a huge showdown at Indiana on deck, which very well could decide the Big 10 regular season title. Illinois is a team that has played very well at home. Their largest loss inside conference play on their home floor is just 11 and they have an impressive win at home against Purdue. I think they give Iowa a scare here.
Jimmy Boyd
Utah +6
The Utes are going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder, not only from a heartbreaking loss at Oregon State last time out, but for revenge from a 59-77 embarrassing home loss to the Ducks earlier this season. The Utes blew a blew a double-digit lead and committed a foul on a half-court heave in the final seconds up 2 to lose 69-71 to the Beavers. Prior to that loss Utah had won 5 straight.
Oregon comes in off a 76-56 blowout win at home over Colorado and are a perfect 14-0 at home this season. Oddsmakers are all but begging for you to take the Ducks at this line, which is a good sign the oddsmakers like the Utes to at least keep it close enough to cover. Oregon could be without a key piece in forward Chris Boucher, who is average 15.4 ppg and 9.2 rpg during the Ducks winning streak. He's questionable with an ankle injury and if he's out or limited that's a big loss, as Utah has a big time presence inside in Jakob Poeltl, who is averaging 23.3 ppg over this last 5.
The Utes are 51-26 ATS when revenging a loss where they scored 60 or less, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a winning record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 when they come in having covered 2 of their last 3.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +105 over MONTREAL
OT included. While we give the Habs credit for their win over the Oilers last night, this one figures to be more difficult. The Habs played a highly intense game last night with hordes of media and interest, as rookie phenom, Connor McDavid skated into town. This hockey hotbed was abuzz with anticipation. Less than 24 hours later on a rare Sunday afternoon game in Montreal, the far less flashy Hurricanes skate into town rested and raring to go. Unlike the Oilers, who have surrendered 36 shots on net or more in every game since McDavid’s return, the Hurricanes surrender an average of 26 per game. The Hurricanes have won three of their past four games and in those wins over Calgary, Chicago and Winnipeg, the ‘Canes outscored that trio, 15-5. Playing a sound and structured brand of hockey, Carolina is a Corsi juggernaut. They are one of the best puck-possession teams in the NHL and they also lead the league in face-off percentage.
That win last night by the Habs was their first in five games. Over that span, Montreal has lost to Columbus twice, Buffalo and Philly. Every once in a while you get a day like yesterday where everything is a bit out of whack - like Ben Scrivens saving the Habs with a magnificent first period, like Pekka Rinne having a better night than Martin Jones, like Detroit scoring five goals on 20 shots on net and beating the Islanders 5-1, like Winnipeg showing up in Colorado, like Pittsburgh defeating Florida with three goals in a span of eight minutes late in the third and into OT and like Jonas Hiller (and his .882 save %) kicking away 34 of 35 shots in Calgary’s 4-1 victory in Vancouver. The results of yesterday’s games were not surprising at all but the way they came about was actually bizarre as hell. We suspect the puck won’t bounce as strangely today. The Habs breathe a sigh of relief, their intensity level drops and things likely get back to normal here. In other words, Carolina comes in, plays their usual tight game and frustrates the Canadiens into another loss.
SPORTS WAGERS
Utah +5½ over OREGON
Other than the Super Bowl, this is the latest start time of the day among the other sporting events. All the people that have packed Las Vegas will just be getting into their seats at their favorite Vegas sportsbooks about a half hour before this one tips off. The tickets being punched out on this game (that includes parlays) will likely come close to breaking a record for a regular season game in college basketball. Oddsmakers had to be especially sharp for this game and that means fading the Utes would be fading the oddsmakers. We find this offering all the more auspicious (it opened at 5½) considering Oregon is coming in off a 20-point home win against Colorado and have won 22 in a row at home. The Ducks currently sport a five-game winning streak against Utah. In their last encounter, Utah was outright pummeled by the Ducks in Utah on January 14th, where the Utes were ransacked by the Quacks 77-59. So, with all this established, is this line a gift for the front end of a parlay? Not on your life.
In the last collision between the Utes and the Ducks, Oregon simply outshot Utah. Oregon was lighting up the scoreboard by virtue of a 54.9% field goal percentage and hitting 41.7% of their threes. The Utes were ice-cold hitting just 33.9% of their field goals and just 31.8% of three-pointers. While these numbers may seem like mathematical algorithms of no consequence, they in fact add up greatly. The 21% difference in field goal percentage can often separate a team from competing in a game to getting taken gate-to-wire like Utah did. The performance in Salt Lake City is a poor representation of what Utah can do with the ball in hand. When things are normal, this is a team that shoots a head-nodding 48.6% from the field, thus making them one of the best in America at shooting the ball. This number even supersedes Oregon’s also impressive 46.8% field goal percentage. Furthermore, the Utes have a freak at forward named Jakob Poeltl. This beast is 7’0, 235 lbs and he can score or get rebounds at will. Poeltl is averaging 17.4 points per game, 8.9 rebounds per game, shooting 64.7% from the field and is averaging 1.5 blocks per game. Oregon had to deal with this monster for only 25 minutes in their last game. One can only imagine how much of an influence a steadier dose of Poeltl can affect Oregon, whose front court personnel consists of three forwards at 6’5, 6’6 and 6’10. The mismatch in the paint suggests the Utes have a legit shot of winning outright. Utah figures to be primed up to play at a much higher level this time around than they displayed the last time these two hooked up. Be very cautious of something that looks too good and there is even more emphasis on that here because of the millions of dollars of action that this game will attract today.
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO +135 over Atlanta
On Super Bowl Sunday these early NBA games will attract plenty of action, as bettors look to parlay some teams onto their Super Bowl choice. Today will be one of the year’s biggest handles in terms of volume and the oddsmakers know that these NBA and college games will set up everything that happens later on. Atlanta will get heavy public support here. The Hawks have been an East contender for years while the Magic have been bottom feeders for years. Atlanta comes in having won three straight to run its record to 30-22. On January 18th, Atlanta pasted Orlando, 98-81. The Hawks are 2-0 against the Magic this year. The Hawks have veteran savvy and they have the inside scoring of Paul Millsap and Al Horford. Now Atlanta is being asked to spot a tiny price in Orlando. Looks good, doesn't it?
Meanwhile, the Magic took their All-Star break three weeks too early. Orlando has dropped three in a row and 11 of its past 12 games. Their stock has plummeted over that span but it’s not as bad as it looks. For one, three of those 11 losses went into OT. Orlando is coming off three extremely difficult opponents (San Antonio, Oklahoma City and L.A. Clippers) and lost by one possession on the road in OKC. 11 of Orlando’s past 17 games have been on the road so they have done some extensive traveling over the past while. The market is now selling this team short because wins and losses dictate everything. Jeff Van Gundy and his astute observations and knowledge of the game called the Orlando Magic one of the best three teams in the East after the first 30 games of the season. The Magic are loaded with young talent, a great starting five and a deep bench. They have simply hit a bump in the road, as almost every team in this league will do over an exhausting 82-game schedule. Atlanta has rebounding issues so figure the Magic to win that battle. Orlando is simply too good to be losing at this pace and the short line here suggests the oddsmakers trust them to snap out of it and play huge today. Magic outright.
SPS Investors
Rider vs. Canisius
Pick: Canisius
On the surface, this appears to be a matchup of teams heading in opposite directions. The Rider Broncos have been firing on all cylinders as of late, winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Meanwhile, the Canisius Golden Griffins have been in the midst of a funk recently having dropped 4 straight heading into this contest. Given the recent performances of these two teams, it would be easy to assume that Rider will come away with the victory, however we don't believe that will be the case.
There is no question that the recent perception of these two teams is skewed. Much of the betting public is enamored with the fact that Rider has been playing good basketball as of late and has clearly forgotten that this is still the same team that opened up their conference slate with 5 straight losses. This is a team that has shown their ability to struggle in conference play and now facing what should be a motivated and hungry Golden Griffins team, we expect them to struggle once again.
Rider is not a flashy team on the offensive side of the ball as they are ranked 298th in the country averaging just over 67 points per contest. Meanwhile, Canisius is one of the better offensive ball clubs in the country, coming into this contest 65th in the country, averaging 78.5 points per game. They are also a team that likes to get to the charity stripe as they get to the line an average of 24.3 times per game. Once at the line, they make teams pay as they convert on nearly 75% of their shot attempts.
Defense has been a major concern for Canisius during their 4 game skid, however we expect to see a much improved effort in this contest. There is a reason why the oddsmakers have favored them in this contest despite their 4 game losing streak. While it is always tough to go against what is the perceived "hot hand" and back the team in the midst of a losing streak, recent trends are made to be broken. Part of being an expert handicapper is knowing when to buck those trends and predict the change in momentum. We believe that happens for Canisius in this contest.