Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 7,2010

SPORTS INSIGHTS

Indianapolis Colts vs. New Orleans Saints

The Super Bowl is upon us -- and what do the sports marketplace indicators have to say? Early betting leaned towards the Colts, with about 65% of the bets taking Peyton Manning and his Colts. This pushed the line from the Colts -3.5 opener all the way to -5.5 at many sports books. Some books even hit -6. Recent betting has been more "even" -- and brought the overall betting percentage down to 57% on the Colts, and the line back down to -4.5. If you shop around, you can still grab the Saints +5 at Bodog, WSEX, and SIA.

In addition to contrarian value and associated line value on New Orleans, SportsInsights' proprietary analysis tool triggered two Smart Money Plays on New Orleans. Our readers know that we like contrarian value as well as Smart Money indicators. Over the years, this philosophy has proven to give our Members an edge in "sports investing."

Indianapolis Colt Dwight Freeney is listed as questionable. He will not practice all week due to a sprained ankle with possibly torn cartilage. Even if he does play on Sunday, he should be less than 100%. Freeney leads the Colts with 13.5 sacks. This will give Drew Brees the extra time necessary to pick apart the Colts' secondary.

The public often focuses on recent performance, and in this case, performance in the AFC and NFC Championship Games. In particular, the public remembers the Colts comeback and thrashing of the Jets, starting near the end of the first half. They also remember how the Saints nearly lost, even with the Vikings committing a crazy amount of turnovers. Data shows that performance in the Championship game is relatively uncorrelated to Super Bowl performance. This is a good opportunity to buy the Saints at a low and sell the Colts at a relative high -- with data to back things up.

New Orleans Saints +5

BANG THE BOOK

Super Bowl Sunday is finally here and the world is anticipating an exciting show featuring two of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints will partake in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy. The New Orleans Saints are making their first appearance in the Super Bowl while Peyton Manning and the Colts will be trying to win their 2nd Championship in 4 years. The Saints offense led the NFL in scoring this season averaging nearly 32 points per game and the Colts were not far behind averaging 26 points per game leading viewers to expect fireworks this Sunday night.

Last year’s Super Bowl broke the all-time viewing record at nearly 98.7 million viewers and this year nearly 10 billion dollars is expected to be wagered on the big game worldwide. Therefore, it is easy to understand why the Super Bowl is easily the single biggest sporting event on the planet. Under those circumstances, both teams will be under a huge amount of pressure. A lot of people think the Saints have momentum on their side, but Colts QB Peyton Manning is perhaps the best in the business and has been in this situation before. So who will win the biggest game in sports?

It is no secret that the Colts heavily favor the pass just like the Saints and have tons of success doing so, but their defense may not be getting the credit they deserve. The Colts defense has surrendered just 10 points on average in their two playoff wins. However, the secondary has been very questionable this season and that is the main concern when facing the Saints offense. Still, if the Colts defensive front can get pressure on QB Drew Brees they could really frustrate the Saints offense. Last week the Vikings held Brees to just a 55% completion percentage due to their relentless pass rush and that has to be the main focus for the Colts defensive front this Sunday.

On offense, the Colts fast paced and methodical approach is difficult to defend. Manning reads defenses better than any quarterback in the NFL and is averaging over 300 yards passing per game in the two postseason victories. The Saints have really struggled against the pass this season, but they have also forced a ton of interceptions, 26 during the regular season. Therefore, Manning can not afford to give the Saints secondary chances to bring down any interceptions. WR Reggie Wayne is the big play threat and TE Dallas Clark is perhaps the go to guy in key situations. However, young wide outs Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have inflicted most of the damage during the postseason as defenses have keyed in on Wayne and Clark. Collie and Garcon have combined for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns during the playoffs. The question is who will step up on the biggest stage? Still, if the Colts can just prevent turning the ball over and giving the Saints any additional opportunities with the football they will be hard to beat.

The Saints offense has done a tremendous job at spreading the ball around this year and they have a ton of guys that the Colts must keep an eye on in the passing game. Wide receivers Devery Henderson and Marques Colston are extremely dangerous targets combining for nearly 2,000 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season. Of course additions targets like Robert Meachem and Jeremy Shockey will also be in the mix of things as well. QB Drew Brees is having a sensational season throwing for 4,388 yards with 34 touchdowns while completing 70% of his passes. Those are very stellar numbers and Brees has performed well during the postseason as well. The key for the Saints offense will be “space.” They have to keep the Colts defense spread out giving their playmakers some 1 on 1 opportunities. When the Saints get space they can get some big plays and also work tailback Reggie Bush into the passing game. If that happens, the Colts secondary will have their hands full.

For the Saints defense, they have to use the electricity from the big game and turn that into a positive. Often times in big games, you will see defenses step up and that has to be the Saints defense on Sunday. Safety Darren Sharper led the NFL with 9 interceptions during the regular season and a few of those big plays would be extremely critical in helping their chances in scoring the win. Nobody expects the Saints to flat out stop the Colts offense considering that is highly unlikely. However, if they can prevent the 7 point scores and force a few turnovers they will have a great opportunity to score their first ever Lombardi Trophy.

Pick – I just do not see Manning losing this game and believe a late touchdown seals the deal for the Colts. Colts -4 ½

RANDALL THE HANDLE

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts

Making a case for either side in this one would not be difficult. For the first time since 1993, when Buffalo met Dallas in Super Bowl XXVII, a pair of No. 1 seeds has made it to football’s grandest stage. Each team is littered with outstanding players but without doubt, quarterbacks Peyton Manning of the Colts and Drew Brees of the Saints are the puppeteers of their respective squads. To no one’s surprise, this exceptional duo finished first and second respectively in MVP voting this year. Rather than list the attributes and statistics of both guys, it is safe to say that both are elite.

Brees will guide New Orleans to its first ever appearance in the Super Bowl. History would indicate that to be a problem. Of the 25 first time participants, only seven went on to victory and of the seven, four were facing opponents also making their debuts. In addition, the past four first-time winners all had a common denominator that is not in the Saints repertoire. The Bears, Ravens and Buccaneers all had suffocating defenses and all had allowed the fewest points in the NFL in their respective championship seasons. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points and yards. It should be noted that New Orleans’ defence ranked an unsettling 25th this year. Not only have the Colts been here before, they’ve actually been right here before as they won Super Bowl XLI just three seasons ago on this very field. Ask any player or coach who has gone through it and all will concur that having experienced this mammoth event is a distinct advantage.

As if the Colts needed an advantage. Under the leadership of Manning, Indianapolis has been a contending team over the past decade or so. Heading into the final two weeks of this campaign, the Colts were on a record 23-game win steak dating back to final eight games of 2008. It may have continued if not for management’s decision to rest starters in Indy’s final two contests this season, having secured the top seed. Winning three in a row in this league is challenging. Winning twenty-three straight is absurd. The Colts have an underrated defence, a good pass rush and a dangerous offence. With Manning at the helm, we’ve seen the Colts operate with surgical like precision. They are more than capable of defeating any team in this league at any time. A win here would not surprise anybody.

Football fans have short memories. There is a “what have you done for me lately’ mentality that sometimes can cloud judgment. After a 13-0 start, the Saints finished the season poorly and were fortunate to get by the Vikings two weeks ago. Indianapolis was impressive in its two playoff victories but let’s not forget that those wins came against a pair of 9-7 teams. Both the fifth-seeded Ravens and sixth-seeded Jets were quite fortunate to even be participating in the post season. Both were teams that relied more on defence than offence and once the potent Colts found a lead, the offensive ineptitude of both foes allowed the Colts to coast to the final gun. Since the league went to seeding the top six teams in each conference, no team in either the AFC or NFC has won the Super Bowl without defeating at least one team that won 10 or more games in the regular season and no AFC representative had reached the Super Bowl without beating at least one division winner.

The Saints, by comparison, had to go through a more traditional path to qualify for this game, having knocked off the No. 4-seeded Cardinals (10-6) and the No. 2-seeded Vikings (12-4). New Orleans topped the league in scoring with 510 points. It also had the top-ranked offensive unit with 404 yards per game. With its No. 1 ranked passing game and No. 6 ranked running game, the Saints were the only playoff team to rank in top 10 in both categories. Conversely, the Colts only averaged 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, making them dead last in the entire league.

Clearly, both offences are capable of scoring and logic would dictate that defence will be the difference maker. While the Colts are generally perceived as the stronger stop unit, much of that perception stems from recent memory and that might be a mistake. While the Colts were stopping Joe Flacco and rookie Mark Sanchez, the Saints were knocking off the likes of Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. Favre was able to move the ball but he took a bashing while doing so. The Colts were 18th overall on defence this season and while that may be a higher ranking than the Saints, a look at Indy’s opponents may illustrate a skewed standing. Indy’s schedule was filled with offensively challenged teams that included the Jets, Rams, Bills, Broncos, Niners, Seahawks and Jaguars. Against the proficient offences of Houston and New England, Indianapolis gave up 400 yards of offence to the Texans and nearly 500 to the Patriots, in addition to a combined 61 points. If that pair presented such problems, there is no telling what the Saints are capable of with their array of playmakers. Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is no stranger to Peyton Manning. Having coached against the prolific quarterback with the Bills, Titans and Jaguars, Williams has had the challenging task of limiting No. 18. on many occasions.. He is well aware of the various changes required throughout the game as Manning is far too savvy to not figure out a sole defensive plan. Expect a mix of packages and New Orleans to play their aggressive, ball-hawking style. The Colts defensive unit could be without one of their key members as DE Dwight Freeney has a very wonky ankle. Under normal circumstances, Drew Brees is difficult to hit and with Freeney out or limited, it allows Brees and his offence to free up plays that may not have been available against a healthy Freeney.

This one has the makings of a classic and from where we sit, this championship is clearly up for grabs. With New Orleans’ abilities and significant points being offered, the newcomer Saints warrant our endorsement.

TAKING: New Orleans +4½ RISKING: 2.14 units to win 2

Marc Lawrence

Iowa at Ohio State
Prediction: Iowa

The Hawkeyes travel to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes in a Big 10 battle at Value City Arena knowing they are 11-6 ATS on this floor, including 7-2 ATS when taking more than three points. With OSU just 1-4 ATS in games before hooking the Hoosiers, look for Iowa to get in under the number here today.

James Patrick Sports

North Carolina vs. Maryland

This young group of Tar Heels has already lost more games than last season's National Championship Team did for North Carolina. HC Roy Williams said the recent play of his young team was perhaps the best that the young Heels have put together all season. This was a top ten team to start this season but they are going to be a top five team at the end. They will have their hands full Sunday as HC Gary Williams and his Turtles will be awaiting the Carolina Blue. UNC is (2-8) ATS in Sunday action, cashing just (1) winning ATS ticket in their prior (5) games at Maryland. Beware the Turtle as Maryland is (6-2) ATS in their past (8) home games and the home team has cashed winning tickets in (7) of (10) ATS n the ACC series. James Patrick Sports Sunday College Basketball selection is Maryland Terrapins.

Vinnie Iyer

Welcome to the modern Super Bowl, featuring magnificent men and their flying machines. The passing league has its ultimate game, with the game's two best passers playing for it all.

Peyton Manning is making a strong case to be the best quarterback who ever lived. Drew Brees has shot to the top of the NFC over the past two seasons.

Only one quarterback, however, can emerge victorious Sunday in the. . . .

Orleans vs. Indianapolis. Two years ago, it was another Manning, Eli, delivering the game-winning touchdown with 35 seconds left. Last year, Ben Roethlisberger accomplished the same feat. Through both accomplishments, two great Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner, went down in defeat.

With Peyton Manning and Brees, it's fair to expect a similar passing duel that comes down to one of the final possessions. The defenses have some individual stars and have found ways to succeed despite giving up a heavy share of yards, but Super Bowl 44's spotlight will shine brightest on the offensive leaders.

Brees will have his teammates fired up in Miami, but the key for the Saints early is to stay calm and stick to their balanced, methodical approach. That means mixing plenty of power runs with short-to-intermediate passes to play ball control. The Colts typically work to take away the big play, so Brees needs to work underneath until he has the right matchup to go deep.

Indianapolis will consistently rush four, hoping it has Dwight Freeney effective enough to put pressure on Brees. The backs and tight ends figure to be busy in the passing game.

As for the Colts, they can expect to see blitzes come from everywhere against Gregg Williams. He has realized all season that the Saints' defense isn't good enough to just sit back, line up and play. They need to force the issue if they are to force mistakes and takeaways. That's especially true against Manning.

The hope is that in the midst of Manning hitting on some big plays against single coverage and checking down for some good runs, that approach will also produce a third-down stop or an interception.

For the Saints to have a chance, they need to stay committed to the run. Pierre Thomas should get 15-plus carries, with Reggie Bush getting another five to 10. The Colts can't afford to consistently creep up a safety into the box if they want to help their corners against the speed of Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem over the top.

For the Colts, they need to work the middle of the field. The Saints will have trouble covering Dallas Clark, and Austin Collie is a tough matchup for the nickel package.

There should be touchdowns traded back and forth, with an occasional spark from special teams or defense. If we thought the past two Super Bowls were classics, this one should fit right in, especially considering all the off-field storylines.

Manning and Brees will each get a chance with the game on the line. If he were up against any other quarterback in the league this season, Brees would get the nod. But this is Manning, two-time reigning league MVP, playing the best football of his terrific career.

As much as New Orleans is a sentimental favorite, for Manning and everyone else, he's also well aware of NFL history. Getting a second ring puts him in rarefied air. He won't allow that opportunity to pass him by. Colts 30, Saints 27.

NORTHCOAST POWERPLAYS

GAME OVERVIEW - The NFL has been transitioning to feature offenses since the success of the 1999 Rams & will now be rewarded for it. The old phrase of "defense wins championships" isn't as iron clad as it used to be despite the success of the Jets in 2009. There were an NFL record 9 QB's with 4,000+yds passing TY with Manning being #2 & Brees #6. This is the biggest QB match-up since Elway faced Favre in SB 32. Manning's Colts are led by Jim Caldwell who is the 6th rookie HC to reach the Super Bowl & the 1st since 2002. This is also the 1st time since 1993 that the #1 seeds in both conferences have reached the SB. IND won the Lombardi Trophy just 3 years ago in Miami vs CHI who had beaten Drew Brees' Saints in the NFL Championship. The Saints are enjoying their 1st SB in franchise history. They have become the embodiment of the city of New Orleans & the local areas that are still rebuilding from Hurricane Katrina. The story of Archie Manning who was THE star player as a QB for a string of bad Saints teams will also be put in the spotlight as well the impact of his 2 sons. This could be the final game for vaunted Colts coaches Tom Moore (OC) & Howard Mudd (OL coach) who almost retired before the draft but Peyton personally lobbied for their return. Bolstered by a slew of passing records & statistics, a SB win here would move Manning from the "best QB in the NFL right now" discussion to the "best QB ever." Drew Brees deserves a huge amount of credit for being the cornerstone of turning around the Saints' franchise. The impact of DC Gregg Williams on a Saints defense which plays better than its #25 ranking, due to 39 takeaways, should also be front & center. IND is viewed as the favorite due to their playoff experience & the fact they beat the #3 & #1 defenses B2B. NO throttled an undermanned ARZ team & despite being out gained 475-257 advanced due to MIN turning the ball over 5 times on 13 drives. SB dogs have had a strong run going 3-5 SU but 6-2 ATS.

PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE - The Colts are strong believers in continuity & character which has enabled them to reach the playoffs every year since 2002. IND is 9-8 SU & 10-7 ATS (6-2 ATS S/'06) with Manning at the helm in the playoffs. The Colts have 25 players who played in SB 41 & are even staying in the same hotel so they will be very well prepared to deal with the media onslaught. Both teams have 7 Pro Bowlers & while none of the 14 players will play they all have to make the trip to Miami the week prior for media day then return to their teams. IND has 7 offensive & 5 defensive starters who played in SB 41 with LT Charlie Johnson being the #3 OT in the game. Brees has played in 5 playoff games (3-2 SU 2-3 ATS) but has no SB experience. NO has 6 offensive & 3 defensive starters who played vs the Bears in the 2006 NFC Championship. NO has 3 players with SB experience with FS Sharper (97 GB), CB Gay('04 & '07 NE), FB Eckel ('07 NE) & while Shockey was on the '07 NYG team he was hurt & didn't play. This is one of the largest edges in playoff/SB experience in recent memory.

LARGE EDGE: COLTS

RECORD VS THE SPREAD - The entire season these two teams looked to be on a collision course as they were the L2 undefeated teams in the NFL. During the first 13 games of the season both were undefeated the Colts went 10-3 ATS & the Saints went 8-5 ATS after covering their 1st 6 games. The Colts & HC Jim Caldwell took heat after pulling starters up 15-10 vs NYJ but although they went 0-2 SU/ATS in the their final 2 reg season games they achieved their goal. The Saints likewise rested starters late in the season & finished the reg season dropping 3 straight & failing to cover 4 straight. IND went 7-1 SU & ATS on the road out gaining foes by an avg of 386-334 & outscoring them 31-17 facing only one playoff teams (BAL & ARZ). NO also went 7-1 SU but only 4-4 ATS out gaining foes 384-358 & outscoring them 32-21 only facing 1 playoff team (PHI). Both teams' only SU loss on the road was in the finale while resting players. The Colts went 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS when facing teams with winning records with an avg score of 27-23 while the Saints went 5-1 SU & 3-3 ATS vs winning teams with an avg score of 31-21. Both teams clearly made the right choice in resting starters in the regular season s the Colts won and covered both playoff games while the Saints failed to cover by a half point last week.

SLIGHT EDGE: COLTS

TURF/SITE - This is an NFL record 10th Super Bowl being hosted in South Florida & the 5th in this building (KR for TD in all 4). Sun Life Stadium is a 76,500 seat venue with a natural grass surface. Both teams are speed oriented & the defenses will be slowed down some the grass which will benefit the QB's. The Saints played here Oct 25th & will be used to the sight lines but many of IND's players were involved in the rainy night game of SB 41. The NFL spares no expense to ensure a quality playing surface however they could be hard pressed to provide one with the Pro Bowl being played 7 days prior. Normally the NFL imports a grass field called Princess 77 for the game costing over $500,000 to install & it gets a month to grow in before its played on. Unlike LY where a large amount of PIT fans made the trip neither franchise is known for its fans traveling. Both teams will be allotted 17.5% of the tickets. One third goes to season ticket holders in a lottery system, one third to suite owners & the rest to the players, coaches & staff. The team hosting the event gets 5% of the tickets, 30% is shared by the other 30 NFL teams with the league retaining 30% for sponsors & promotions. The avg ticket price for SB XLIV on the resale market was $2,799 prior to the Championship games.

EDGE: NONE

SAINTS #1 OFFENSE VS COLTS #18 DEFENSE - The Saints offense starts with Drew Brees who is a perfect match for Sean Payton's offensive system. Brees is a rhythm QB who gets better with momentum making those first 15 scripted plays crucial. Minus the QB rush att's NO was a 55/45 pass vs run team in 2009. Payton is a very innovative play caller & the NO system spreads the ball around to various players diffusing opposing defenses. NO had 7 players with 35 or more rec's & 10 players with 1 TD catch.Brees favorite target is Colston & he has logged 1,000 yds receiving in 3 of the L4Y Henderson is the possession WR & 33 of his 54 rec's have gone for FD. Despite Brees coming so close to Marino's single season passing record in 2008 the offense didn't really click until TY with a healthy Shockey to exploit the seams in the middle of defenses. Meachem fi nally came into his own TY as a big play WR (1 TD every 5 rec's) who is able to stretch the fi eld (16.0 ypc is 9th). The 2nd biggest improvement for NO TY was their run game which avg'd 100 ypg (4.0) LY improving to 132 ypg (4.5) TY (6th). All 3 RB's were hit with injuries TY with Thomas missing 2.5 games due to bruised ribs.However the Saints emphasize a different RB week to week depending on the foe they are facing. Thomas is the all purpose RB, Bell the power back & Bush is a multi-role speed/agility back that can motion out of the backfield & play slot. Bush's versatility is another key component to the offense but he is starting to slow down due to a chronic knee injury. NO returned 4 of 5 starters that developed together when the OL was rebuilt back in 2006. Brees has only been sacked more than twice in a game 2 times TY (MIA & DAL) & incl the 2 playoff games he's avg'd 1 sack every 27 att's. RG Jahri Evans has evolved into arguably the best OG in the NFL despite coming from a Div II school. NO will have to contend with a very fast IND defense that matches up fairly well in the passing game. IND's #18 defense isn't that bad considering that Antonio Johnson is a 5th RD DC that was signed off TEN's practice squad LY & Daniel Muir is 3rd year UFA that was claimed LY off waivers. GM Pioli likes to state the Colts play the run (25th, 127 ypg, 4.3) on the way to the QB (15th 34 sacks). IND's offensive success also helps dictate opposing teams tendencies as they play the pass more. This is the 1st playoff run since the SB win in 2006 that IND had Freeney & Mathis healthy together (22.5 sacks 66% sacks). IND's LB's don't get a lot of credit as they are system LB's that are very fast & are sure tacklers. IND is one of the NFL's best at not giving up big plays in 2009 & while they give up yardage in a grinding style they also force teams into mistakes. Brackett is a solid if undersized MLB & Session is an underrated WLB is a poor man's Derrick Brooks. While IND is a better team when Bob Sanders plays, the Colts don't miss him as Antoine Bethea had an All-Pro level season & Melvin Bullitt is solid run stuffer. IND is very specific in how it drafts CB's requiring them to be solid tacklers who are very fast & they tend to get beaten up. IND has given up four 300 yd passing games TY vs Warner, Schaub & Brady with the 4th coming vs Sanchez in the playoffs when they were in a prevent defense. They've allowed 229 ypg passing (63%) with a 21-19 ratio with 3 TD's coming vs BUF. They have only allowed 3 games of 3 passing TD's but will be hard pressed to match that here. NO's balanced offense has the edge here despite IND's speed.

EDGE: SAINTS

COLTS #9 OFFENSE VS SAINTS #25 DEFENSE - IND is the only team since the 2002 realignment to with double digit wins & playoff appearances. Continuity is the core of the Colts offense as Manning has had the same OC & OL coach the entire time he's been in the NFL. HC Jim Caldwell was his QB coach from 2002 until he took over as HC with Frank Reich replacing him. Manning has become the best statistical QB in the NFL & is keenly aware of his place in the NFL history books. He won his 4th MVP in 2009 with no less than 5 come from behind 4Q wins en route to a 14-0 start. What makes 2009 stand out is the fact that he no longer had Marvin Harrison & his replacement Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was lost after the season opener. Manning was able to force feed Pierre Garçon & Austin Collie into the Colts system & develop them. He was still able to get Reggie Wayne who is arguably the 3rd best WR (behind ARZ's Fitzgerald & HOU's Johnson) & Dallas Clark who is one of the top 5 receiving TE's in the NFL 100 rec's each. Manning's attention to detail in the passing game over the season helped push Garçon & Collie to a combined 18 rec's (15.2) vs the Jets #1 D. IND has only avg'd 80 ypg (3.5) rushing the L2Y despite adding Donald Brown in TY's draft. While IND does struggle in short yardage situations the truth is they view RB's as extra pass blockers & Addai is a good receiving RB (51 rec, 6.6). IND does an excellent job of developing OL & getting to overachieve. They are dedicated pass blockers who provide little push at the point of attack & while a lot of credit goes to Manning they have only given up 1 sack every 40 pass att's TY. IND can be slowed down by bigger & physical defenses like TEN's LY, JAX in Wk 1 or BAL in the Nov game. Aside from the NFC Championship game where they unloaded on Favre, NO isn't known for that. Gregg Williams runs an aggressive blitzing scheme that isn't afraid to come from any angle. Will Smith is the top pass rusher on the team (13 sacks) but he's not known for his run stopping ability like Charles Grant (torn triceps) was before landing on IR after TY's season finale. DT Ellis took a huge step in development & with him in the lineup the Saints only allowed 103 ypg (4.2) vs 151 ypg without him. One of the glaring weaknesses for NO's defense had been the lack of an impact MLB but Vilma has locked the spot down & is the one player that Williams trusts with changing defensive play calls on the field. Prior to 2009 the Saints gave up a whopping 79-39 ratio over 3 years. While DC Williams rightfully gets most of the credit the truth is NO revamped the secondary signing Sharper (9 int), Greer, Tracy Porter is back from a broken wrist & drafting ******* who would be the nickel CB. NO's secondary was very beat up TY & at one point was without 4 of its top 6 CB's but still finished 3rd with 26 reg season int(GB 30 BUF 28). NO allowed five 300 yd passing games TY but only 1 game with 3 TD passes (WAS). NO's does have a very dangerous secondary but they don't have the physicality overall to slow down Manning who will have extra time to break down the defense.

EDGE: COLTS

SPECIAL TEAMS - It's not much of a surprise that both teams are at the bottom of our special teams rankings as the Colts (#31) simply don't spend money in this area. They replaced their special teams coach & P in the off season but avg'd a 37.8 net avg (20th). NO's (#30) P Morstead tied for 32nd in net avg (36.0) but part of the problem for both P's is that their offenses stall in favorable field position & they aren't allowed to unload like Lechler does with OAK. Both teams have poor PR #'s with IND avg 5.2 (28th) & NO avg 4.6 (31st). Bush however remains a weapon & had an 83 yd PR TD vs ARZ. K's have struggled with FG's in the 2009 playoffs (20 of 33) & IND has a huge edge with Stover (569 att's) over Hartley (26 att's) despite his game winning 40 yd FG vs MIN. NO has the edge on KR's (4th) thanks to Courtney Roby whose 27.5 avg tied for 11th. Both teams have poor KR defenses with NO being 29th (24.5) & the Colts finishing 31st (25.3). Struggling teams generally place more emphasis on their special teams while good teams have cap issues that prevent their starters from playing there. Neither team qualifies for an edge here based on their body of work.

EDGE: NONE

COACHING - For the 3rd time in 4 years a member of the Tony Dungy coaching tree will appear in the Super Bowl. Jim Caldwell was an assistant coach with IND in SB 41 which made the transition from Dungy's retirement very smooth. Thanks to Manning he was able to bring back OC Tom Moore & OL coach Howard Mudd for another year keeping that side of the ball together. He did bring in a new DC in Larry Coyer who set up a system for bigger DT's but kept the overall team speed intact. He also hired a new special teams coach in Ray Rychleski & while those results haven't moved IND up the rankings they didn't cost them any games like LY's Wildcard loss to SD. Sean Payton is a former AFL QB who came into the league as a QB coach for Jim Fassel & Ray Rhodes. His career blossomed under Bill Parcells as he helped develop Romo into a starting QB. Payton is widely regarded as the best offensive oriented HC in currently the NFL.Payton made the highly publicized & successful move (chipping in $250K of his own salary) to hire Gregg Williams as his DC.NO's defense was 11th after the 1st 7 games but injuries &the offensive play style saw them decline as the season went along. Both teams have solid offensive coaches & really the defenses are in the 1st year of new DC so there are no edges.

EDGE: NONE

PAST HISTORY MATCHUP & INTANGIBLES - The last meeting between these teams was the 2007 NFL season opener where IND shredded NO 41-10 as a 6 pt HF. IND had a massive emotional edge in their 1st game since their SB win & NO was pressing too hard to be perfect after the NFC Championship loss. NO DC Williams is very familiar with Manning having been the TEN DC from '97-'00, BUF's HC from '01-'03, the WAS DC in '07 & the JAX DC in '08. He is 2-5 SU & 1-5-1 ATS vs Manning with his defenses allowing 285 ypg (65%) with a 13-4 ratio with 7 sacks. Both teams carry themselves very well in the media & there isn't likely to be any "bulletin board" material here. NO does have the emotional boost of their 1st SB in franchise history & will be playing for themselves & the city. While the media will try to play up Archie Manning's involvement with both franchises here it won't carry weight on the field.

EDGE: NONE

The Super Bowl is a great handicapping lesson. It is an isolated game & the bye week affords the media to dissect every aspect of the contest. The best value is during the regular season when Vegas posts numbers on 45 or more CFB games, with NFL sides & totals. Do not fall into the trap of putting your biggest play or anything close to it on the most isolated game in any sport. Our Super Bowl System was revised last year and it is 22-0 on games with OVER 50pts & 32-2-2 94% on games with 21.5 pts or higher! This year's system was not finalized as of press time. Don't miss out on this year's winner! Call 1-900-776-7871 for just $30 or get it using your Northcoast Debit Card for only $20! This is a game that PP is ideally suited for. Both teams have played their L2 games at home in controlled situations so their numbers aren't skewed by weather. This will be a very neutral site in terms of fans but its too early for an accurate weather forecast. This is the highest SB total in history & PP has a very slight lean with the Over here. The line is so high due to the elite QB's playing & it could be like the ARZ/GB playoff game TY where both defenses were gassed by the 3 Qtr. PP calls for 842 combined yards here & NO's return combo of Roby & Bush wouldn't surprise us with a TD. PP has this right around the side making it a No Play but we'll do a very small play on the Over.

1★ SAINTS/COLTS OVER

PLAYBOOK

New Orleans over Indianapolis by 1

A funny thing happened on the way to the Super Bowl this year – a pair of No.1 and 4-2 ATS records. Though technically a ‘rookie’ head coach, Indy’s Jim Caldwell is seeds actually made it for the first time in 16 years. Not that it was eas; the Colts found themselves trailing 17-6 against the underdog Jets with 5:00 minutes remaining in the first half before all-world QB Peyton Manning ignited a slumbering offense and Indy’s defense shut down the vaunted New York rush attack to fuel a 24- 0 run, sending Indianapolis back to the Big Game for the second time in four years. New Orleans had an even tougher row to hoe. With the score tied at 28-all and less than two minutes remaining in the game, Saints fans watched helplessly as QB Brett Favre drove the Vikings downfield into position for a game-winning field goal. But on a crucial third down play, Favre’s gunslinger mentality betrayed him. He passed up an easy 10-yard run to instead rifle a bullet to WR Sidney Rice. The toss was intercepted and Minnesota never saw the ball again. Minutes later in overtime, QB Drew Brees marched the Saints into Viking territory and a 40-yard field goal split the uprights, unleashing a blizzard of gold and white confetti from the Superdome ceiling. So it’s only fitting that the two teams who flirted with perfection this season – the Saints started 13-0; the Colts 14-0 – meet in Miami to decide the championship.

The logical place to begin examining this matchup is to look at the engines that drive both highly-productive scoring machines: quarterbacks Manning and Brees. For two signal callers that operate mostly in weatherproof facilities, they both fare quite well playing outdoors. Current NFL MVP Manning has gone 41-22 SU outdoors, including 16-5 SU and 14-7 ATS versus .700 or greater opposition. Those numbers improve to an eye-catching 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS when the Colts are a pick or favored. Though Brees has compiled a mediocre 27-24 SU mark away from the Superdome, he does own a 30-17-4 ATS record away outdoors, including 12-2 ATS off back-to-back wins. But when it comes to squaring off against tough competition, the New Orleans QB has rung the ATS register with greater frequency. Brees is 19-5 ATS versus .700 or greater opponents (5-0 SU and ATS this season) while Manning has struggled to a 9-17 ATS mark versus comparable foes, including 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS if his adversary is off an ATS loss. Yes, we’re aware that Peyton is 16-0 SU this season in contests where he’s played the entire game. However, seven of those wins came by just 4 or less points.

The Colts own a flawless 5-0 SU and ATS series edge of late over New Orleans but the teams have met only once in the previous six seasons. More revealing is the fact that each team faced five common opponents this season. The Saints went 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS, winning the stats by an average +78 YPG while Indy went 3-2 SU and 2- 3 ATS, losing the stats by an average -12 YPG... thus advantage New Orleans. The boys from the Big Easy look even more impressive when we note their domination of the AFC over the past two seasons: 7-1 SU and 8-0 ATS. Those numbers include a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in 2009 with every win coming by double-digits. When matched up against fellow playoff teams from this season, both teams posted identical 5-1 SU finishing his eighth year with the franchise and served as assistant head coach to Tony Dungy since the 2005 season. Fourth-year Saints head coach Sean Payton has excelled in today’s role, going 10-4 SU and ATS versus a team off back-to-back wins (5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS if the Saints are also off consecutive wins). New Orleans has been an underdog only once this season and that was in its final game of the year against Carolina, basically a ‘lay down’ affair where Payton rested many key players.

Like last year when the Cardinals reached the game with Roman Numerals for the first time ever, so, too, do the Saints. Unfortunately for the Black-and-Gold, the last three teams to make their Super Bowl debut are 0-3 SU (the last squad to win a Super Bowl in its debut was Tampa Bay in SB XXXVII). Our database also informs us that the last six teams to enter the Super Bowl off a spread loss are 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS and the last No.1 NFC seed to win a Super Bowl was the ’99 Rams. However, Indianapolis will have to buck some strong trends if they expect to grab the green as favorites. Super Bowl chalk of 7 or less points has gone 6-11-1 ATS, including 5-7 SU and 2-9-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back home games. In fact, the last 14 Super Bowls have seen the favorite go 10-4 SU but just 4-8-2 ATS. And if the Colts are held to their season average of 26 points, it could be lights out for Indy: the last fifteen favorites to score 30 or less points are 2-13-1 ATS! It’s a must that both clubs put at least 21 points on the board, too, because teams who fall below that category are a money-burning 1- 24 SU and 4-20-1 ATS.

Of course, we can’t end the discussion without offering up one of our Playbook INCREDIBLE STATS: Since 1995 there have been seven Super Bowl games when one team rushed the ball for 4.0 or more YPR (Saints) versus an opponent that allowed 4.0 or more YPR (Colts). The favorite in these games is 0-4-1 ATS; the underdog is 2- 0 ATS, winning both games in straight-up fashion – as double-digit dogs, no less! Our database adds further support by pointing out that NFC teams are 18-11 SU and 17- 10-2 ATS in the Super Bowl since 1980, including 7-1-1 ATS versus .800 > opponents.

While other questions abound (who does Archie Manning root for – his beloved Saints or his son?), we must point out that the two finalists are equally vulnerable on defense. There’s a saying we follow close to the vest in this business: “When everyone is thinking the same, no one is thinking.” We’re thinking everyone sees Peyton Manning scurrying off to Disneyland. Maybe he does, but laying points with a team that owns as many defensive holes as the Colts is a recipe for disaster.

In what may be the ultimate irony surrounding this game, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall in the United States, it first hit Miami before moving on to devastate the Big Easy. New Orleans may be called the ‘Crescent City’ but the Saints come full circle here today. Who Dat!

THE GOLD SHEET

It’s not often that what seems like an inevitable Super Bowl matchup actually
materializes. Indeed, this is the first time since the 1993 season that the
respective top seeds have emerged unscathed from their conference playoff
gauntlets to meet in the final showdown. Although it’s not the unprecedented
battle for the ages between unbeatens that this matchup teased at becoming as
late as mid-December, it is nonetheless one of the more compelling
championship collisions in recent memory, enhanced in part simply because
each avoided the sort of playoff banana peels that have caused numerous top
seeds to slip (including both the Titans and Giants a year ago at their first
postseason hurdles).

Though we are not convinced of greatness in either side, the oddsmakers
and wagering public seem to believe the billing more closely fits the Colts. We
also suspect that perceptions from the respective conference championship
games have something to do with the not-so-insignificant impost that saddles
Indy in the finale. That the Saints found some rather unconventional ways to
subdue the Vikings in the NFC title clash is probably why their chances appear
to have been slightly discounted in Miami.

Forgive us, however, for not being ready to bestow the “great” tag on this
particular Indy team...at least not yet. That’s not to say that we don’t consider
Peyton Manning as such, as his credentials for Canton are clearly set. But there
are enough things that this Colts team doesn’t do particularly well that make us
wonder about their ultimate championship credentials. Indy does not run the
football particularly well, or well at all, really, ranking 32nd and last in the league
during the regular season. Of course, a team with Manning at the controls
doesn’t necessarily need a chop-busting infantry to survive (as the Colts proved
in their title run three years ago), and Indy did generate a serviceable overland
component (101 YR) vs. the Jets in the AFC title game. But at a puny 3.5 ypc,
it’s not a diversion Manning can normally rely upon. Meanwhile, although the
rush defense somewhat contained the one-dimensional Jets two weeks ago, it
couldn’t consistently stop the run (ranking 24th while allowing 4.3 ypc) this
season. That same shortcoming didn’t stop the ‘06 Colts (who ranked last in
rush “D”) from winning it all, but it should be noted that particular Indy stop unit
got healthier toward the end of that campaign and had stemmed some of those
rush “D” leaks by playoff time. And it hasn’t prevented this Indy edition from
advancing to another Super Bowl, although we would suggest that after facing
the somewhat flawed offenses of the Ravens and Jets (and their very young
QBs) in the first two playoff rounds, the Colt “D” has yet to take on a truly
balanced and potent offensive force this postseason.

And the Saints appear capable of doing some things against this Indy
defense. Drew Brees has been at his best when complemented by his ground
game, something New Orleans should have confidence in establishing for the
finale. The Saints’ stout OL features All-Pros on the right side (G Jahri Evans
& T Jon Stinchcomb), and RBs Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, and Mike Bell
should all be relatively healthy after a week off. Although Jim Caldwell can
deploy lots of cornerbacks (including a previous Super Bowl hero, Kelvin
Hayden) to match up against New Orleans’ squadron of dangerous wideouts,
it’s Bush, in particular, who is often a make-or-break proposition for the Saints’
offense, especially in the passing game, and the Colts are going to be gambling
that one of their safeties (Antoine Bethea or Melvin Bullitt) can handle Reggie
in one-on-one situations. Indeed, Bush’s homerun capabilities (also as a
returner) are a dimension unique to this matchup. And despite the presence of
the menacing Dwight Freeney at DE, the Saints’ pass protection wasn’t a
problem this season when ranking a solid 4th best in sacks allowed, with Brees’
mobility (especially his uncanniness while throwing on the run) a dimension that
could further confound Caldwell’s defense.

Of course, dealing with Manning, who has been hot (623 YP & 5 TDP) in the
playoffs, is another matter for the Saints, although many respected sources
believe Gregg Williams’ stop unit is constructed as well as any to slow down the
Colts attack. With his quick release and sterling protection (Indy allowed the
league’s fewest sacks), Manning is not easy to disrupt. But Manning is human
and is still relying on some relatively-green, albeit impressive, receiving targets
in rookie Austin Collie and 2nd-year Pierre Garcon, and is likely to get hit by New
Orleans’ aggressive pass rushers, who eventually made Brett Favre pay in the
NFC title game. And the Saints have plenty of difference-makers in their ballhawking
secondary, including big-play FS Darren Sharper, with 3 interception
TDs TY and a potential elixir for one of Manning’s favorite targets, TE Dallas
Clark. Those seven forced TOs (against seasoned vets like Kurt Warner and
Favre) in the playoffs also suggest that Williams’ now-healthy D” has
rediscovered the mojo that made it so effective the first half of the season.
Although New Orleans was considered fortunate by many to escape the
Viking threat in the NFC title game, we thought the resourcefulness the Saints
exhibited in overcoming such a stout opponent spoke volumes about their
chemistry and fortitude, something Indy hasn’t had to similarly demonstrate in
the postseason. We suspect that New Orleans might have already beaten a
better team (Minnesota) than the Colts to reach the finale. Getting a bonus from
the oddsmakers is nice, but we don’t think it will be necessary for Saints
backers to cash their tickets.

TGS SCORE FORECAST:

NEW ORLEANS 34 - Indianapolis 27

“TOTALS” note...Although the posted “total” is sitting rather high at 56½ at
our press time, we foresee a likelihood of the defenses and special teams
getting involved in the scoring act, which can serve to inflate the ultimate
scoreline. And given the potent offenses involved, there seem to be more ways
this game can go “over” than “under.”

Sportsmemo

Tim Trushel..... New Orleans +6 ....Under 56.5

Teddy Covers...Indianapolis -5.5 ...Under 56.5

Fairway Jay .....New Orleans +6.... Over 56.5

Erin Rynning.....New Orleans +6..... Under 56.5

Brent Crow..... New Orleans +6 ......Over 56.5

Rob Veno....... New Orleans +6....... Over 56.5

Marty Otto...... Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Andrew Lange ...Indianapolis -5.5..... Under 56.5

Donnie Black..... New Orleans +6 ......Under 56.5

Helmut Sports.... Indianapolis -5.5 .....Under 56.5

SEAN MURPHY

Player to win the Super Bowl MVP: Reggie Bush (+1400)

How can you not like Reggie Bush at these odds?

The stage isn’t too big for the Saints all-purpose running back. Remember, he was a part of the Saints squad that reached the NFC Championship three years ago. He’s also been involved in a college football national championship game.

The beauty of backing a guy like Bush in the MVP category is that he’s a triple threat – rushing, receiving and returning. He has already accrued a touchdown in each category during these playoffs.

In an effort to counteract the Colts defensive team speed, I expect Bush to be a big part of the Saints offensive gameplan on Sunday.

While Drew Brees is certainly the favorite to win this award should the Saints prevail, Bush is an outstanding sleeper selection, much like Santonio Holmes was last year.

Most pass completions: Peyton Manning -0.5 (+105)

Match Brees and Manning up in these playoffs, and Peyton has a 56-40 edge in terms of pass completions.

We can make the case that Manning has faced two tougher pass defenses as well, in the Ravens and Jets. Brees has encountered a pair of excellent pass rushing teams in the Cardinals and Vikings, but they by no means possess ‘shut-down’ pass defenses.

If either team is going to lean more on its ground attack this week, it will be the Saints. They have an excellent stable of backs running behind an offensive line that excels at run-blocking.

The Saints will make a concerted effort to execute long drives with a balanced attack in order to keep Peyton Manning off the field.

I’m not sure the same can be said for the Colts. They’ll stick with what works by relying heavily on Manning’s arm to move the ball down the field.

We’re likely going to see a close game and that diminishes the edge that either quarterback has in terms of playing from behind. Watch for both Brees and Manning to approach 30 completions, but I’ll give the nod to the guy that’s been here, and won, before.

Total number of field goals missed by both teams: Over 1 (+385)

In a matchup between an inexperienced Garrett Hartley and an aging Matt Stover, I’ll take my chances with the over.

What will happen first for New Orleans (score or punt): Punt (+100)

Something tells me it will take a couple of possessions before the Saints adjust to the Colts speed on defense.

Will Indianapolis score in every quarter: Yes (+130)

I like the way the Colts offense matches up against the Saints defense. Long, clock-eating drives could be our only downfall.

Total number of players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 (+240)

Give these offensive coordinators two weeks to prepare and they’ll add a few wrinkles. Here’s hoping one includes a halfback or wide receiver pass play. Note that this line was set at +170 last year.

Total number of pass interceptions by both teams: Over 2.5 (+180)

Have we ever seen a Super Bowl quarterback matchup generate as much hype as this one? Lots of pass attempts mean lots of opportunities for two ball-hawking secondaries.

Will Reggie Bush score a touchdown in the game: Yes (+150)

This goes hand-in-hand with my MVP prediction. Bush is a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the football, as evidenced by his three touchdowns this postseason.

Rob Vinciletti

South Florida vs. Notre Dame
Play: Notre Dame -8

Notre Dame ifs 14-2 at home this year and 9-0 the last 3 years when the total is 145 to 150. As a home favorite in this range they have won all 3 times with 2 covers. They were able to beat South Florida on the road earlier in the year and now catch them at the right time. South Florida has covered 5 straight games as an underdog including 4 straight upset wins. The last one was a big one. South Florida went into Georgetown and beat a flat Hoya team that was coming off a huge win at home vs Duke and gladly took advantage. Today its the Irish who look to capitalize on what should be a flat S. Florida team who will be hard pressed to put up another big performance. The Numbers prove it too. South Florida is 3-13 revenging a home loss, 3-19 and 8-14 ats as a road dog from 6.5 to 9 and have been a bad team in the month of February the past few years going 3-12. Look for Notre Dame to win this one and cover today.

SPORTS ADVISORS

New Orleans (15-3, 9-9 ATS) vs. Indianapolis (16-2, 12-6 ATS)
(at Miami, Fla.)

The No. 1 seeds from the NFC and the AFC collide for the first time in 17 years when the Saints and the Colts head to Sun Life Stadium to battle for the Lombardi Trophy.

New Orleans outlasted Minnesota 31-28 in overtime two weeks ago in the NFC Championship Game, winning on Garrett Hartley’s 40-yard field goal to reach its first Super Bowl, but failing to cash as a four-point home favorite. The game was really decided by turnovers, though, as the Saints forced five while committing just one, the biggest among those a Brett Favre INT late in regulation when the Vikings were in position to attempt a game-winning field goal.

All those turnovers helped the Saints overcome an otherwise off day, as they were outgained 475-257, with the defense surrendering 310 passing yards and 165 rushing yards. QB Drew Brees was a rather ordinary 17 of 31 for 197 yards passing, but he had no turnovers and three TD throws. A week earlier in the divisional round, New Orleans plastered defending NFC champion Arizona 45-14 as a seven-point home favorite.

Indianapolis took a while to figure out the Jets two weeks ago in the AFC Championship Game, falling behind 17-6 late in the second quarter, but the Colts then scored the final 24 points in a 30-17 victory as a hefty eight-point home chalk. In helping his team reach the Super Bowl for the second time in the last four years, QB Peyton Manning carved up the league’s No. 1 total defense, No. 1 pass defense and No. 1 scoring defense, completing 26 of 39 passes for 377 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles.

The Colts finished with 461 total yards against New York, and although Indy allowed 388, its defense stifled New York’s No. 1-ranked rushing game. Facing a unit that averaged a whopping 170 ypg in playoff wins at Cincinnati and San Diego, the Colts allowed just 86 yards on 29 carries. Indy’s victory over the Jets came a week after it shut down Baltimore 20-3 as a 6½-point home favorite in the divisional round.

New Orleans is in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, as they lost the NFC Championship Game 39-14 to Chicago following the 2006 regular season, with the Bears going on to face the Colts in the Super Bowl. This time around, the Saints reached the Super Bowl for the first time in the team’s 43-year history.

Indianapolis is in the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season – one more appearance than New Orleans’ complete playoff history. The Colts are going for their second Super Bowl title in four years, having beaten Chicago 29-17 as a 6½-point favorite following the 2006 season, also in Miami. The franchise also appeared in two Super Bowls when located in Baltimore, beating the Cowboys 16-3 in Super Bowl V and losing the infamous Super Bowl III to Joe Namath and the Jets, 16-7.

These teams have had three meaningful meetings in the past nine seasons, and the last two have been Indianapolis blowouts. The Colts were dealt a 34-20 loss as a six-point road ‘dog in November 2001, but they hammered New Orleans 55-21 as a 2½-point road chalk in September 2003, then drubbed the Saints 41-10 as a 5½-point home favorite in the 2007 season opener. The SU winner is on a 5-0 ATS roll in this occasional rivalry.

New Orleans led the NFL in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring offense (31.9 ppg) in the regular season. In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth). Including two playoff wins, Brees has completed 69.8 percent of his passes for 4,832 yards with 40 TDs and 11 INTs. In the regular season, the Texas native was the top rated QB (109.6), completing an NFL-record 70.6 percent of his passes.

Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 21.3 points (20th) and 357.8 total yards per game (25th), but it posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL. Including the two playoff wins, the Saints are now up to plus-17, having forced seven postseason turnovers while committing just one. New Orleans also led the NFL in defensive TDs with eight, twice as many as any other team.

Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs against 16 INTs, and those numbers jump to 5,123 yards, 38 TDs and 17 INTs when you include the playoffs. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led a receiving corps that saw five guys catch at least 47 passes..

Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th) in regular-season action, but it gave up just 19.2 ppg (ninth) and continued its stingy ways in the postseason, surrendering just 20 points in two games. The Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin in the regular season, but they are plus-3 in the postseason, having tied the Jets at one turnover apiece after posting a 4-1 margin in the victory over the Ravens.

Despite their SU success through the first 11 games of the season (8-3 ATS), the Saints are in ATS ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-4 after a SU win, 1-4 after a non-cover, 1-4 in the postseason and 1-3-1 as an underdog. On the plus side of the ledger, the underdog has cashed in the last two Super Bowls and five of the last seven (2-5 SU). In fact, favorite is 10-4 SU in the last 14 Super Bowls, but just 4-8-2 ATS.

The Colts, are on spread-covering sprees of 7-3 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 7-2 laying points, 5-1 after a spread cover and 15-5-2 after a SU win. Plus, Manning is 9-8 SU and ATS in the playoffs in his career, but 6-2 SU and ATS in his last eight postseason outings, including 4-0 SU and ATS on the Colts run to the title three years ago. The SU winner has covered the spread in all 17 of Manning’s playoff games.

New Orleans is on “over” rolls of 5-0-1 in the playoffs, 49-23-2 against winning teams and 19-9 with the Saints coming off a SU win. Likewise, Indianapolis is on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after both a SU and ATS win and 4-1 as chalk, though the total has gone low in seven of the Colts’ last 10 playoff games.

Finally, last year’s Super Bowl – a 27-23 Pittsburgh win over Arizona – cleared the 46½-point posted total, ending a four-year “under” run in the big game.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and OVER

NBA

Orlando (33-17, 25-24-1 ATS) at Boston (32-16, 19-28-1 ATS)

The Celtics look to add to their three-game winning streak when they welcome the Magic into TD Garden for this Eastern Conference showdown.

Orlando had its four-game winning streak snapped on Friday when the lowly Wizards went to Florida and scored a 92-91 upset as 12½-point underdogs. Dwight Howard led the way with 20 points and 18 rebounds but the Wizards’ Caron Butler hit the game-winner with less than a second to play. The Magic are 14-12 on the road this season but just 8-18 ATS.

Boston has followed a three-game losing streak with its current three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS). The Celtics beat New Jersey 96-87 at home on Friday but came up short as 12½-point favorites. Ray Allen led the way with 26 points and seven rebounds while Rajon Rondo added 17 points and 11 assists.

Orlando has taken two of the three meetings this season, including a 96-94 home win on Jan. 28, but it fell short as a 3½-point favorite. These two met in Boston on Nov. 20 with the Magic scoring an 83-78 upset as six-point pups. The Celtics are 14-6 ATS in the last 20 series clashes in Boston, but the road team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups.

The Magic are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against Atlantic Division teams and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 4-9-1 on the road, 2-7-1 on the highway against teams with winning home records and 0-3-1 after a straight-up loss. The Celtics are in a plethora of ATS ruts, including 2-8-1 overall, 4-16-1 at home, 1-5-1 after a non-cover, 0-4-1 after a day off and 0-5-1 at home against teams with winning road records.

Orlando is on several “under” streaks, including 20-8 overall, 20-8 on the road, 21-7 after a straight-up loss, 35-16 after a non-cover, 9-2 on Sundays and 4-0 against Eastern Conference teams. Boston is on “under” runs of 10-4 on Sundays, 5-2 at home, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-2 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six clashes in Beantown.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

(3) Syracuse (22-1, 14-5 ATS) at Cincinnati (14-8, 5-12 ATS)

Syracuse takes aim at a 10th straight win when it visits Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati to take on the Bearcats in a Big East Conference matchup.

The Orange blew out Providence on Tuesday 85-68, cashing as a 14½-point favorite and improving to 7-2 ATS during their nine-game winning streak. Syracuse is a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) in games played away from home, where they allow just 67.4 points per game and hold the opposition to 38.2 percent shooting.

Cincinnati has alternated wins and losses in its last four contests and it is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight lined games. On Thursday, the Bearcats went to South Bend, Ind., and lost 83-65 at Notre Dame as a three-point underdog, and in their last home game, they edged Providence 92-88, failing to cover as 8½-point favorites. Cincinnati has struggled defensively lately, allowing 73.4 ppg and 44.7 percent shooting over its last five outings.

Last year, Syracuse destroyed Cincinnati 87-63, cashing as an eight-point home chalk. These teams have split their last six meetings with the Bearcats holding the slight 3-2-1 ATS edge, and the underdog at 4-1-1 ATS in those six.

The Orange are on several ATS runs, including 23-7 overall, 14-4 in Big East action, 19-7 after a straight-up win, 6-1 on the road and 20-7 against teams with winning records. Cincinnati has struggled at the wagering window, currently on ATS slides of 5-16 overall, 4-22 on Sunday, 3-14 in conference play and 0-7 after a straight-up loss.

Syracuse has topped the total in four straight Sunday games, but it is otherwise on “under” runs of 5-0 on the road, 6-1 in the Big East and 6-1 after a straight-up win. The Bearcats have gone “over” the total in four of their last five at home and seven of 10 at home against teams with a winning road record, but they have stayed low in five of six after a straight-up loss and five of seven after a non-cover.

In this series, the “over” has been the play in four of the last five meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE

Triple Threat Sports

Our side on this game is to take the Colts (-) over New Orleans. We simply trust Peyton Manning and the veteran Colts much more than we do the never tested in the big game Saints. Throughout Super Bowl history the team with SB experience, especially in a win, has done very well against the, pardon the phrasing, Super Bowl "virgin." With that in mind and with the fact that the Saints were outplayed in the NFC Championship Game, going to do with the Colts to get the job done in this one.