VEGAS EXPERTS
North Carolina at Maryland
Can the Tar Heels really lose for a sixth time in seven games in ACC play? Not sure, but considering the level of desperation, the 6.5-point number sure looks generous here. We also note that since 1997 UNC is 26-10 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less.
Play on: North Carolina
Hollywood Sports
North Carolina at Maryland
Prediction: North Carolina
There has been a rush as of late to write the obituary for North Carolina (13-9) this season after
their fifth game in six games overall to Virginia Tech on Thursday. But this is still the same Tar Heels club that defeated Michigan State and Ohio State earlier this season while losing at Kentucky by only two points. Expect a spirited effort from Roy Williams' club this afternoon. The Tar Heels have covered in seven of their last nine games as a road underdog of under seven points. And this proud program remains 30-9-1 ATS in their last 40 games coming off a loss. Maryland (15-6) comes off a 71-67 win on the road against Florida State. But the Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in six of their last eight home games against teams with a losing record on the road. With the snowstorm throughout the east coast making it difficult to travel, Maryland will likely not enjoy the fan support that they typically would in big games like this. Expect a close game here -- and don't be surprised if the Tar Heels bounce back with a straight-up win. Take the points with North Carolina.
EZWINNERS
Northwestern Wildcats -9.5
The Hoosiers are coming off of a tough loss to Purdue at home in this last game, but now they take to the road agianst an opponent that they have not had a lot of success against in the Northwestern Wildcats. Indiana is only 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games and Northwestern is 10-2 against the spread in the last twelve meetings between these two teams. Lay the points.
Jack Clayton
Pick:Colts 1st Quarter
The Colts have been great at jumping out early on opponents with an uptempo, aggressive attack. Oddly, even though the Saints had the best offense in pro football, they were slow starters, actually getting outscored in the first quarter by a significant margin this season, the only quarter that happened. Play the Colts to win the first quarter.
Tony Weston
Your first inclination in picking the Total in the Super Bowl will be to jump on the Over. But don’t do it. That’s a trap. Do some digging and take the Under in this one.
The Total for Super Bowl XLIV is hovering around 56 1/2 points. The truth of the matter is this game may not even hit 50 points.
Consider that, coming into this game the Saints have stayed Under the Total in 6 of their last 9 games as they’ve totaled, on average, 49 points per game in that stretch.
During that stretch the Saints have played away from the Big Easy four times and have totaled, on average, 47.5 points per game.
On the other side, the Colts have seen scoring come at an even more premium pace.
In the team’s last four games the Under has gone just 1-3. However, the Colts have totaled, on average, just 37.7 points per game in that stretch. In their two postseason games, against the Ravens then the Jets, Indy has totaled, on average, 35 points per game.
In the team’s last 9 games, scoring has been up a little, but the Colts have totaled, on average, 44.3 points per game.
As I said, scoring won’t reach the 50s tonight as these two stay Under the Total.
3♦ SAINTS-COLTS UNDER
Craig Davis
I normally like to play the OVERS because once they're over, they're over and you don't have to sweat anymore. Playing the UNDERS are usually stressful the entire game as you have to hope and pray for turnovers in the red zone and a lot of punts. But I've heard so much about the OVER in this game that I can't help but take the UNDER. Look, I'm fully aware of how potent each of these offenses can be, but I think both defenses get lost in the shuffle. We're talking about two teams that combine to allow right around 40 PPG, and knowing the Colts run defense ranks 24th in the NFL, you can bet Sean Payton will give them a healthy dose of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush in the first half. He doesn't want to get into a shootout with Peyton Manning... he wants to keep him on the sidelines as much as humanly possible. Remember the Miami/Colts game back in September where the Dolphins controlled the ball for nearly 46 minutes? The Saints would be licking their chops if they could garner those type of numbers today. Give the Saints the ball for 45 minutes today and they win. Now, obviously I don't think that's going to happen, but the Saints want to take as much time off the clock as they can and force Manning to play catchup in the end. The Colts can score in bunches, but they've also said they'd like to establish the run early on in hopes of keeping Drew Brees off the field. Chess match anyone? I think the score finishes in the 20s and will end up about 5 or 6 points UNDER the number.
3♦ UNDER
Drew Gordon
Sacramento +8' at TORONTO
54-35-3 roll L/92 Free Plays (22-12 L34)! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Kings/Raptors match up.
Couple reasons why I'm siding with the Kings here, but let's start with the most obvious, defense, or lackthereof. You see, we know the Kings are a below average defensive team, but what bettors seem to be forgetting, is Toronto is just as bad. Both teams are allowing 105 ppg this season, so this one comes down to offense, and that's where the Kings are being underestimated here.
Before Kevin Martin's return, I would agree that the Kings offense was ho-hum, with a stud rookie leading the way. But now that Martin is healthy, both he and Evans should run circles around Jack and Weems, who are nothing but NBA journeymen. Make no mistake, the Kings have a HUGE edge in the backcourt this afternoon.
True, Toronto has been playing rock-solid ball of late, winners of 6 of their L7 games, but let's not get too excited. Wins versus teams like the Heat, Knicks, Pacers, and Nets are nothing to write home about... I fully expect Toronto to get exposed in for the average team they are in this contest.
Bottom line, the Kings may be 16-33 SU & 23-23-3 ATS, but a large majority of those losses came without their best player. Not only that, but Martin's presence was even more critical with the young Tyreke Evans shouldering the entire load in his absence. Look for a better second half from this Sacto squad, as they finally have the pieces necessary to compete, especially against an inconsistent, no-defense playing Raptors team.
Take Sacramento plus the points over Toronto in this NBA match up.
1♦ SACRAMENTO
Bobby Maxwell
Syracuse -3' at CINCINNATI
Big 2-0 college hoops sweep with FREE plays as Texas Tech and UNLV rolled to easy wins to improve my comp record to 45-16-1 with my last 52 selections. Today I have another college hoops winner as I go with Syracuse to get the win and cover at Cincinnati in Big East play.
Syracuse has it rolling again and as a short favorite they are definitely the play going into Cincinnati today. The Orange are looking for their 10th straight win and facing a Cincinnati team that has struggled at the betting window.
Syracuse has been a big success at the window, currently on ATS runs of 23-7 overall, 14-4 in Big East play, 19-7 after a straight-up win, 6-1 on the road and 20-7 against teams with a winning record. On the other side is Cincinnati that is a disaster for bettors, on ATS slides of 3-14 in Big East play, 5-16 overall, 4-22 on Sundays and 0-6 at home. The Bearcats just haven’t been a team you can back with any confidence.
Thursday, they lost at Notre Dame, getting blown out by the Irish 83-65 as three-point underdogs. Last time Cincy was at home, it edged Providence 92-88 but came up well short as an 8 ½-point favorite. Defense has been the Bearcats’ problem lately as they’ve allowed 73.4 points a game and allowed 44.7 percent shooting over the last five outings.
Syracuse crushed Providence on Tuesday, winning 85-68 as a 14 ½-point chalk, improving to 7-2 ATS during their nine-game winning streak. And impressive is this club on the road as they are a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) in games away from home this season. Defensively, the Orange allow the opposition to shoot just 38.2 percent from the floor when they are on the road.
Look for a blowout win for the Orange today. They are locking teams down on defense and will shut down the Bearcats. Lay the chalk and play Syracuse.
5♦ SYRACUSE
Karl Garrett
Syracuse -3' at CINCINNATI
Orangemen looking to make it 10 straight wins since their only loss of the season, and I like their chances both straight up, and minus the road impost, as Cincinnati just can't seem to get any traction in conference play.
The Bearcats are off their 4th loss in their last 7 games, and I am looking at a slew of negative numbers that support a play against Cincy.
Cincinnati is just 1-6 against the spread in their lined home games this year, and the Bearcats are a money-burning 3-14 against the spread their last 17 Big East games.
Finally, the 'Cats are only 5-16 overall their last 21 lined games, and 4-22 against the spread their last 26 Sunday dates!
The Orangemen are 7-1 against the spread away from home this year, and the last series meeting saw the 'Cuse pound the 'Cats 87-63 last March.
Lay away, as Syracuse keeps on keeping on.
5♦ SYRACUSE
Dominic Fazzini
North Carolina at MARYLAND -6'
I brought home an easy winner Saturday with my complimentary selection, going with Colorado State to roll at home against Wyoming. That victory lifted my record to 69-46-4 over the past 119 days, and I've got another college hoops winner today that will keep things going forward!
North Carolina is really struggling right now, and ACC teams are taking their shots at the Tar Heels while they're able.
Maryland is 10-1 at home this season, while UNC is just 1-4 on the road and has lost five of its last six games.
The Terrapins are giving up just 64.7 ppg and the Tar Heels have had problems putting the ball in the basket, averaging just 68.5 points over their last six games, compared to 80.4 ppg for the season.
Maryland has four players, led by Greivis Vasquez (17.7 ppg) and Landon Milbourne (14.4 ppg), averaging double figures in scoring, while North Carolina has struggled to find someone to take charge of its offense.
The Terrapins are on ATS runs of 7-1 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-3 as a home favorite and 9-1 against ACC opponents. The Tar Heels, on the other hand, are on ATS slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 on the road and 7-21 vs. ACC opponents. Go with Maryland to roll at home today.
2♦ MARYLAND
Erik Scheponik
New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Play: New Orleans Saints +4.5
My power ratings have had Indy rated as the best team the entire season, and although I respect the whole "having been there before" edge that Indianapolis has here, this line is an overreaction to what has happened in the playoffs thus far. Minnesota was at the same level of these teams (top 3), so there is no shame in the Saints' struggling with them at home, while the Colts' performances deserve a bit of an asterick as they beat up on two teams playing their 4th and 3rd consecutive road games, both led by young QBs, off up upset playoff wins. Those were perfect spots for Indy, and the Dwight Freeney injury certainly doesn't help their cause as he is a true difference maker in this league. Sean Payton/Drew Brees are a deadly play calling/signal calling duo to take points with, and New Orleans' entire body of work is much too impressive for this price. Nothing wrong with the Colts' (outside of Freeney's injury possibly being worse than we are led to believe), but New Orleans was 13-0 at one point and certainly understand that their late season struggles' and big game experience may put this line on the other side of 3, but anything else is the public's overreaction to this being the biggest of stages, and last week's results. The Saints also qualify as one of our "Rushing Dogs", and those teams are clipping at over 60% in the NFL the last two seasons. NFC was the superior side this season (first time in a while), and we'll take the points here in a game that could go to the wire. Indy by only 3
Tony George
Toronto -8.5
The Raptors are unreral at home. They have played 6 out of their last 10 games at home, won many of them by double digits, and some of those wins included the Lakers, Mavs, Bucks, and Heat. They are on a 7-3 SU run their last 10 games and are damn near unbeatable at home. Sacramento is not a good team, are 1-9 SU their last 10 and on the road are 3-21 SU this season to date, just deplorable. They do not match up well against high flying Toronto, and the Raptors are 9-4 ATS at home their last 13 games, and are 7-1 ATS their last 8 Sunday games.
LT Profits
North Carolina @ Maryland
The Under is a perfect 7-0 in all North Carolina Tar Heels ACC games this season, as oddsmakers have continued to set their total based more on past reputation, and this appears to be the case again today when they visit the Maryland Terrapins on Super Bowl Sunday.
Sure, the Heels are still averaging 80.4 points per game for the year, but much of that came during the non-conference portion for their schedule. They have yet to get out of the 70s inside the ACC, and they have not been as potent on the road all year, averaging just 71.2 points away from Chapel Hill with those games averaging a combined 145.2 points, about 12 points less than this posted total.
In a major twist from past season, it has been Maryland that has had the more high powered offense between these two, especially here at home where they are averaging 84.0 points per game. However, the Terrapins have also played great defense at home, permitting only 60.3 points per game on a microscopic 36.4 percent shooting. That combined home total of 144.3 is about 13 points less than this posted total.
In fact, the Maryland defense ranks 22 in the nation in defensive efficiency according to Pomeroy, allowing only .889 points per possession. Most impressive has been the fact that the Terps are only allowing a 39.8 percent success rate on two-point attempts, which is fifth best in the land. Thus, the Tar Heels will probably have to do much of their scoring in this game from the perimeter, which has not been a string suit this year.
All things considered, the Under at this high posted total looks like a nice bankroll builder for Super Bowl wagers later in the day.
Pick: North Carolina, Maryland Under 157.5
Brett Atkins
I've got your early Sunday action right here for you with a free winner coming on the college hardwood as you can count on Syracuse to deliver a winner at Cincinnati today.
The Orange are playing well again, having won nine straight, including a blowout of Providence on Tuesday, winning 85-68 as a 14 1/2-point favorite. Syracuse should have no problem in Cincinnati today just like they haven't had a problem on the road all season, going a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) away from home this season.
They get it done on defense, limiting the opposition to 38.2 percent shooting on the road. The Orange are on ATS runs of 23-7 overall, 14-4 in Big EAst action, 19-7 after a straight-up win and 6-1 on the road. Cincinnati is an ATS disaster, going 3-14 ATS in Big East action, 5-16 ATS overall and 0-6 ATS at home.
Lay the small chalk with Syracuse and enjoy this easy winner.
5♦ SYRACUSE
Jay McNeil
Missed out on another winner with my free play by one basket Saturday as Kansas State had to work hard to get past Iowa State. But I'm still 8-2 over the past 10 days, and I've got an NBA play that would probably be my top play in most circumstances.
The Raptors have won six straight and 12 of 13 games at home, while the Kings have lost 10 consecutive road games, going 3-21 overall this season away from home.
Toronto has tightened up its defense over the last two months, and it also has been shooting an NBA-leading 49.3 percent since mid-December.
The Raptors' margin of victory during their six-game home winning streak is 10 ppg, and they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five home games against Sacramento. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the teams, and the favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six.
The Kings also are on ATS slides of 4-12-1 overall, 4-10 as an underdog and 2-10-1 after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. Take Toronto to win by double digits today.
5♦ TORONTO