Charley Sutton
In the biggest game of the year I’m handing you the Total in the Super Bowl as I’m taking the Under in this Saints-Colts matchup in Super Bowl XLIV.
At first glance, considering the capabilities of both offenses, you’d be inclined to go with the Over. But don’t. With the number hovering around 56 1/2 points, stay Under that Total.
Coming into this game the Colts have totaled, on average, just 37.7 points per game their last 4 games. In two postseason games, Indy has totaled, on average, just 35 points per game. Going back a little further, Indy has totaled, on average, just 44.3 points per game its last 9 contests.
The Saints, on the other hand, have stayed Under the Total in 6 of their last 9 games as they’ve totaled, on average, 49 points per game in that stretch.
Tonight, with the Total set in the mid-50s, these two won’t put up the numbers most would expect. So, take the Under in this one.
3 ♦ SAINTS-COLTS UNDER
Joel Tyson
Early NBA action for Sunday, and I will stick with the Raptors minus the points at home against the Kings.
Sacramento has lost 5 straight, and 12 of their last 13.
Toronto has won 6 of their last 7, and they have covered in 4 of their last 6.
The Raptors have also won 2 in a row, and 4 of the last 5 both straight up, and against the spread versus the Kings.
Lay whatever you have to, as this one is a rout!
4♦ TORONTO
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Super Bowl “under” the total on Sunday as I try for my fourth straight complimentary winner after UNLV destroyed BYU on Saturday in college basketball.
Clearly, both these offenses can light up a scoreboard. And it’s because of that reason that I believe both coaches will employ a game plan to try to hold onto the ball as long as possible. That means a lot more runs (especially against nickel and dime defenses) than you’d probably expect, and it means a lot more quick, short passes. That’s not to say Manning and Brees won’t take their shots deep – they will. But probably not early on in the game. And even if they do take those shots, what are the odds they’re going to connect more than a couple of times combined?
Obviously, one of the benefits of a ball-control offense (even for quick-strike teams like these two) is it keeps the opposing offense on the sideline. That tends to build frustration, and frustration leads to anxiousness and anxiousness leads to mistakes and mis-throws and that leads to punts.
Finally, it doesn’t take a veteran handicapper to recognize how inflated this total is. You knew when the Colts-Saints matchup was set that Vegas would throw up the biggest total in Super Bowl history (they did!) because they knew the public would hammer the “over” no matter how “fake” the number was. That’s of course what has happened. Well, how often is the public right, especially in the Super Bowl?
You have to go back to Super Bowls XXXVII and XXXVIII in 2003 and 2004 for the last time The Big Game had more than 50 total points. And prior to that you have to go back to the 1995 Super Bowl between San Francisco and San Diego for the last time two teams combined for more than 56 points – that means 12 of the last 14 Super Bowls would’ve gone “under” this particular total!
4♦ Saints-Colts UNDER
Jeff Benton
How ridiculously easy was Saturday’s free college basketball winner on Kentucky, an ultra-rare 8♦ selection! That's now five of six winners in the free-play department. For your freebie on Super Bowl Sunday, I'll play the Colts-Saints game UNDER the posted total.
First off, you can’t ignore the fact that this is THE biggest total in Super Bowl history. Nor can you ignore the fact that in the 43 previous Super Bowls, only eight have featured more than 56 combined points. Narrow that focus a little further, and you’ll see that since the 49ers pounded San Diego 49-26 in Super Bowl XXIX in January 1995, only twice has the Super Bowl total exceeded 56 points (Bucs-Raiders was 48-21 in 2003 and Patriots-Saints was 32-29 the following year).
Looking at these teams specifically, while the Saints’ two playoff games featured exactly 59 points, both of those were played in the controlled environment of the Super Dome (with its fast artificial surface). Also, only one of New Orleans’ last nine regular-season contests had more than 55 combined points (a 33-30 overtime game at Washington). Meanwhile, the Colts played just three games all season that would’ve eclipsed this posted total (35-31 at Jacksonville; 35-27 at Houston; and 35-34 vs. New England). Other than that, Indy had just two other games that exceeded 48 combined points (and those two hit 51 and 50).
Bottom line: These offenses may be explosive, but they’re going to have to be clicking on all cylinders for the entire 60 minutes to get up and over this number, and I don’t see that happening. In fact, I think both squad will try to establish the run and short passing game early to get over the nerves and shake off the rust that builds up after having two weeks off. Play it low.
6♦ Colts-Saints UNDER
Chris Jordan
I am going to give you a FREE WINNER in this game before it even starts ...
Take Carrie Underwood's rendition of the Star Star Spangled Banner and play it UNDER the 1:42.
The Under is the favorite, and for good reason. She generally gets through the National Anthem in a timely fashion, anywhere from 1:34 to 1:41, from what I've seen - in the 2006 All-Star Game, a regular season NFL game and in the 2007 World Series.
I've gone as far as watching several videos of her across my computer screen, starting them all simultaneously, and she's been pretty consistent across the board with her delivery.
5♦ NATIONAL ANTHEM UNDER
Stephen Nover
Play on the Colts to recover the first fumble. The Colts only fumbled five times, the fewest in the NFL.
It's much more likely the Saints, who have never been to the Super Bowl, will fumble first. Reggie Bush, in particular, has been known to lay the ball down.
1♦ COLTS RECOVER FIRST FUMBLE
Tom Freese
Indiana at Northwestern
Play: Northwestern
Indiana 9-12 overall this year and 1-3 on the road. The Hoosiers are 4-11 ATS their last 15 games following an ATS win. The Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS their last 7 road games and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. Indiana is 1-3-1 ATS their last 5 Sunday games. Northwestern is 15-7 overall and 11-3 at home this year. The Wildcats are are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big Ten games and they are 7-3 ATS on Sunday. Northwestern is 8-2 ATS off a straight up win and they are 10-2 ATS their last 12 meetings with the Hoosiers. The Wildcats are are 7-3 ATS on Sunday and they are 5-2 ATS their last home games. PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN -
Frank Jordan
New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Play: Under 56.5
Everyone is expecting a high scoring shoot out of a game, but more often then not teams score below their season average in playoffs compared to the regular season. In this one look for a decent score of 31-24 which will be right up the total. Play the Under
Michael Cannon
South Florida +7' at NOTRE DAME
I am 73-63-3 with my last 139 free plays.
Take South Florida plus the points on the road over Notre Dame.
The Bulls are currently riding a four-game winning streak; the first time in school history they’ve won that many conference games in a row. They are getting incredible play from guard Dominique Jones, who is averaging 22.4 ppg on the year and 35.0 ppg during the Bulls winning streak.
Notre Dame isn’t good enough defensively to slow Jones down, so the Irish are going to have a hard time pulling away in this game.
The Irish are 2-4 SUATS in their last six, while South Florida has cashed in six straight games.
The Bulls are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
Take the points with South Florida as they stay within the number on the road.
3♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
JACK JONES
Notre Dame -7 vs South Florida
Take the Fighting Irish on their home court Sunday against the South Florida Bulls. South Florida has won 4 straight Big East games, however, their numbers on the road are not that impressive. They've averaged 70.7 points per game on offense, while their defense has allowed 69.5 ppg. They are walking a thin line on the road in this difficult conference.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish come in at 14-2 at home this season. They've been great offensively, scoring 85.7 ppg in South Bend, while their defense has been serviceable, allowing 71.6 ppg.
South Florida has played a brutal schedule lately, playing at Cincinnati, home against Seton Hall and Pitt, then on the road against Georgetown. They came out of that mess with a 4-1 record, which is impressive, but their luck runs out against the Irish Sunday.
DUNKEL
New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
The Colts look to build on their 7-1-1 ATS record in their last 9 games as a favorite. Indianapolis is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5)
Game 101-102: New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 132.929; Indianapolis 139.129
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 6; 57
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 5; 56
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-5); Over
NBA
Orlando at Boston
The Celtics look to build on their 6-2 ATS mark in their last 8 games as a favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2 1/2)
Game 801-802: Sacramento at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.643; Toronto 120.940
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 8 1/2; 219
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 214 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-8); Over
Game 803-804: Orlando at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 120.173; Boston 124.025
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 2 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-2 1/2); Over
NCAAB
North Carolina at Maryland
The Terps look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games in the ACC. Maryland is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terps favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2)
Game 805-806: South Florida at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 58.475; Notre Dame 68.715
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 10
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 8
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-8)
Game 807-808: Iowa at Ohio State
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 60.131; Ohio State 77.854
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+18 1/2)
Game 809-810: Syracuse at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 70.150; Cincinnati 65.698
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 5
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+5)
Game 811-812: North Carolina at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 67.818; Maryland 75.952
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 8
Vegas Line: Maryland by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-6 1/2)
Game 813-814: Indiana at Northwestern
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 60.232; Northwestern 69.447
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+9 1/2)
Game 815-816: Canisius at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.367; St. Peter's 52.387
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 3
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+5 1/2)
Game 817-818: Iona at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.843; Marist 41.364
Dunkel Line: Iona by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-13 1/2)
Game 819-820: Loyola-MD at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 51.420; Manhattan 52.455
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 1
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (+2 1/2)
Game 821-822: Northern Arizona at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 51.721; Northern Colorado 58.855
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 7
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11)
Game 823-824: Eastern Washington at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 43.729; Sacramento State 48.370
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento State (-3)
Game 825-826: NC Wilmington at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 44.190; Delaware 53.456
Dunkel Line: Delaware by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Pittsburgh at Washington
The Capitals look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a 5-3 loss in Montreal and is 1-4 in its last 5 games after their opponent scores 5 or more goals in the previous game. Washington is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Capitals favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175)
Game 51-52: Pittsburgh at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.378; Washington 14.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-175); Over
Game 53-54: Boston at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.477; Montreal 11.893
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-115); Under
Stan Lisowski
New Orleans
The Saint ground-game has multiple weapons to control tempo of this affair, with each running back, bringing something different to the table for Indy to worry about. One common opponent situation that stands out is the teams’ games against New England, where the Saints clobbered the Pats while the Colts needed a miracle to beat them at home. New Orleans is on an 8-0 spread run against teams from the AFC.
Larry Ness
Cal St. Sacramento -2.5 vs Eastern Wash.
Eastern Washington enters 6-17 and Sacramento St is 8-16 but for the Hornets, the team's six wins matches the combined total from the last two seasons (Sac St won just four games two seasons ago and went 2-27 last season). These teams met in Cheney, Washington back on December 31 with the Eagles winning 79-75 behind 29 points from freshman guard Glen Dean (11.9-4.3 APG) and 26 points plus nine rebounds from 6-8 senior forward Mark Dunn (11.2-4.7). Sacramento St had five players score double digits in that game which is not unusual, as seven players average between 5.9 and 10.8 PPG on the season. Guard Toles-Bay (10.8-3.2 APG) and senior center Eller (10.0-5.7) are the leading scorers. The Hornets were able to stay close at Eastern Washington and here at home, I expect them to pick up a win, as the Eagles are just 2-10 away from home, getting outscored on average 63.5-to-79.7 PPG. Take Sacramento St.
John Ryan
North Carolina vs. Maryland
Play: North Carolina +6.5
3* graded play on North Carolina as they take on Maryland set to start at 2:00 EST in ACC action. Obviously a must win for UNC and our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that UNC will lose this game by 5 or fewer points. Maryland is a strong team and they shoot well, but they actually set-up poorly against UNC. UNC is a solid 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams that are making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. UNC is certainly having a disappointing season to date and are coming off a tough loss At VA-tech losing 74-70. Note, however, that UNC is a 26-10 ATS (+15.0 Units) after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. We also believe that UNC will dominate the boards and will have a minimum of 45 in this game. Note that in past games getting 45+ boards UNC is a solid 23-10 ATS over the past 3 seasons and 72-29 ATS since 1997. Take UNC.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Under 36 Pass Attempts by Drew Brees (+105)
- Just 31 pass attempts against the Vikings, despite being behind most of the game and going into overtime
- Just 32 pass attempts vs. Arizona - had 34 rush attempts vs. a weak rush defense. Indy actually has weaker rush defense than Arizona
- Saints average just 33.7 passes per game this season (17th in NFL)
- Colts opponents averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game this entire season
- Surprisingly, the Saints are 9th in the NFL in rush attempts per game.
- Brees had 36 or more attempts in five of New Orleans’ 18 games this season (27%) and one of those games finished in overtime
Under 65.5 rushing yards by Joseph Addai (-115)
- In just 5 of the 15 games that Addai played in he rushed for more than 65.5 yards
- Because of the passing attack, Addai averaged just 14.6 rush attempts per game
- 3.8: the average yards per carry he averaged
- 21: longest run of the season for Addai
- Colts 31st in the NFL in rush attempts per game - just 37.2% of offensive plays
- Colts average just 3.5 ypc
- Manning and Colts gameplan won’t change for this game
- Colts RB Donald Brown had 12 carries last two games and will get a few of Addai’s carries