NELLY
INDIANAPOLIS (-5) New Orleans (56)
The Jets used some trickery to take an early lead last week, up 17-6
late in the second quarter. Peyton Manning and the Colts rallied to
score just before the half and then took over in the second half for a
familiar outcome. Indianapolis has not been a great statistical defense
but they have been very effective in the playoffs and in big regular
season games. While New Orleans was thoroughly out-played against
Minnesota in many areas, one concern before the game was the
Minnesota pass rush, and New Orleans did protect Drew Brees well last
week. The Saints did not put up great yardage numbers but they were
dealt a short field in a few key drives in the second half. Minnesota
moved the ball with relative ease last week but as they have done all
year, the opportunistic Saints took advantage of Minnesota mistakes.
The Vikings posted 310 yards in the air last week against the Saints,
while the Colts put up 360 passing yards against the #1 defense in the
league, a bad sign for the Saints moving forward to this game. New
Orleans did a great job blitzing and getting pressure and hits on the
quarterback but ultimately there remain serious concerns for the Saints
going against the Indianapolis offense. The favorite has only covered
five times in the last 14 Super Bowls and the ‘under’ has hit in four of
last five games. The Colts won the Super Bowl the last time it was in
Miami, beating Chicago 29-17. Indianapolis covered in that game as a
seven-point favorite and like many times this season including last week
the Colts rallied from an early deficit to win. Jim Caldwell will be a rookie
head coach as he will look to join Don McCafferty who won Super Bowl
V for the Colts in his first season. George Seifert also won the Super
Bowl his first season coaching the 49ers and that transition could view
similarly to what has happened in Indianapolis. The Super Bowl has still
been AFC dominated in recent years, winning seven of the last nine
Super Bowls. This will be the first Super Bowl with two #1 seeds since
the Bills and Cowboys re-match in 1993. These teams last met to open
the 2007 season and the Colts won with ease 41-10. While it is tough to
consider going against Indianapolis in any situation there should be
some concerns with this team away form home as nearly all of the big
wins this season have come at home. The last Super Bowl run for the
Colts did come largely on the road however so there is a precedent for
success. The home field edge for the Saints was not the overwhelming
advantage that it was hyped to be but the Vikings did have critical
turnovers and penalties, mistakes the Colts are not known for making.
The Saints have faced a favorable schedule in the regular season and
in the playoffs, and more so than the Colts, New Orleans will be a team
happy to be in the Super Bowl for the first time. The Colts all season
long have been focused on winning the Super Bowl, even sacrificing an
immortal perfect season run to best set-up this moment. While the
Saints faced one of the league’s weakest regular season schedules, the
Colts certainly had the playoffs fall favorably, facing two wild cards
teams in brutally tough travel situations as Baltimore played in a fourth
straight road game and the Jets faced a third straight road game. Credit
is due to the Jets for making it as far as they did and delivering a valiant
effort but certainly New England or San Diego would have been a more
feared match-up. Totals are often inflated in the Super Bowl and this
game should kickoff with the highest total in Super Bowl history. It is
warranted as both teams feature pass heavy offenses and have some
vulnerability in the secondary. The Saints defense should step up and
make a few more stops this week but the Colts also deserve more credit
on defense than they are often afforded. There is no question that the
Saints caught some breaks last week to be in this situation and it could
be difficult for this team to bring the same focus that Indianapolis will
have. That said, we have seen in past Super Bowls where a heavily
favored team caves with the pressure and a loose underdog is capable
of surprising. The discipline and leadership on the Colts should prevent
any type of letdown however and as much credit as Manning deserves
there are a lot of other great play-makers on the team and the defense
should be able to have some of the success in limiting New Orleans
much like the Vikings showed last week. Don’t be surprised if the
energy of the Saints buys an early lead but the Colts are never
unraveled by deficits and have proven clutch in many late game
situations this season. COLTS BY 10
RATING 2: Indianapolis (-5) over New Orleans
RATING 1: ‘UNDER’ (56) New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
Richard Witt
Saints/Colts UNDER 57
Awfully big number for a game which figures to settle into a relatively slow early pace. Fourth quarter figures to be riotous, but they may be too far away from this number at that point for it to matter. Any field goals are daggers to the hearts of the Mr. MOTOs on the over. Go low .
Nite Owl Sports
New Orleans @ Indianapolis
2 Units: Under 57
With two offenses like Indy’s and NO’s, led by the top two QBs in NFL TY, Peyton Manning for Colts and Drew Brees for Saints, it’s really tempting to have a knee jerk reaction for the Over in this game, and we’re sure that the so-called “betting public” (aka the “masses of asses”) will be out in force in the final couple of days leading up to the Super Bowl to bet the Over. But we need to be cautious here with the total, because we’ve seen a number of match-ups in recent years with anticipated high scoring, only to see the under ‘cash’ more often than not. More specifically, there have been ten Super Bowls in the past 15 years where the totals line has been 48> (that # being the totals T/H for a predicted high scoring NFL game, IMO), and not only have six of the ten stayed under, with an average of 48 total points being scored in those ten games, but NINE of the ten stayed under this game’s totals line of 57. The most recent and possibly the most glaring example of the “betting public” being led to the “slaughter house” by the books was the February 2008 Super Bowl, which featured an incredible upset by the upstart NY Giants over the then undefeated and apparently unbeatable NE Patriots, who were shooting for the first undefeated NFL season since Don Shula’s Miami Dolphins did it in the 1972 season. Not only had the Pats been a strong road over team that year, at 6-1 to the over in road games prior to the Super Bowl (which was played at a neutral site in Phoenix, Arizona), but they and the Giants had just recently played a 73 point (38-35) “score fest” won by NE on a cold late December night at Giants Stadium. So with the total set at 54 and the game being played in “perfect” climate –controlled conditions at Arizona’s recently completed indoor/outdoor stadium, things looked “too good to be true” for Over bettors, and that turned out to be the case, as the G-Men won a surprisingly low-scoring defensive “war” 17-14, in which only 10 total points were scored after 3Q. And forgive us for mentioning that we went 3-0 for +10 units on the Giants in that game, with our first half (+7) and full game (+13) ATS picks on them, plus our long shot money line victory on them at +400 odds. In any event, so much for the full game over. We waited patiently for more than ten days (since the opening Super Bowl lines were released on Monday January 25) for the aforementioned “masses of asses” to bet the full game totals line up to 57 (another key totals # ) from the opening line of 56.5, and the fact that the line has gone up only half a point during that period (and has not moved at all at some books) tells us that there is a lot of “smart money” on the under by pro cappers offsetting the flow of “public money” on the over. So while the totals line could go higher than 57 with a late influx of “public money” on the over, with it still being 56.5 at several major books as of today (Friday, Feb. 5), we’ll grab the under at 57 for this complimentary pick. But with two offenses like Indy’s and NO’s, led by the top two QBs in NFL TY, Peyton Manning for Colts and Drew Brees for Saints, we’ll limit this line value play on the under to two units.