Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 1

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Penn State at Northwestern
The Wildcats look to take advantage of a Penn State team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games. Northwestern is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-8 1/2)

Game 841-842: Rutgers vs. South Florida (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 57.306; South Florida 63.866
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 6; 114
Vegas Line: South Florida by 4; 118
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (-4); Under

Game 843-844: Villanova at Marquette (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 62.681; Marquette 70.427
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 7 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Marquette by 10 1/2; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+10 1/2); Over

Game 845-846: Illinois State at Southern Illinois (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 55.332; Southern Illinois 54.458
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 1; 122
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 3 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+3 1/2); Under

Game 847-848: Akron at Marshall (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 59.275; Marshall 69.743
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 10 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Marshall by 8; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-8); Over

Game 849-850: Minnesota at Michigan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 65.004; Michigan 68.355
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 3 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Michigan by 7; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+7); Under

Game 851-852: Syracuse at DePaul (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 74.193; DePaul 62.420
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 12; 157
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 14; 152
Dunkel Pick: DePaul (+14); Over

Game 853-854: Pennsylvania at Duke (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 54.486; Duke 74.589
Dunkel Line: Duke by 20; 150
Vegas Line: Duke by 22; 145 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+22); Over

Game 855-856: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 63.672; Pittsburgh 66.803
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 3; 124
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+6); Under

Game 857-858: Penn State at Northwestern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 56.801; Northwestern 67.001
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 10; 129
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 8 1/2; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-8 1/2); Under

Game 859-860: Evansville at Northern Iowa (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 52.545; Northern Iowa 68.557
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 16; 136
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 14; 134
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-14); Over

Game 861-862: Canisius at Fairfield (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 45.067; Fairfield 62.111
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 17; 127
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 16 1/2; 130
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-16 1/2); Under

Game 871-872: Monmouth at North Carolina (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 38.270; North Carolina 77.883
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 39 1/2; 162
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 41 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+41 1/2); Over

NHL

Calgary at Nashville
The Flames look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games in Nashville. Calgary is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Flames favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+120)

Game 1-2: Calgary at Nashville (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.052; Nashville 11.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+120); Under

Stephen Nover

Detroit Lions -3.5

Has the linemaker lost his mind making the Lions this high of a road favorite against the 14-1 Packers?

Detroit hasn't beaten Green Bay on the road since 1991 when Barry Sanders was on the team.

Credit the oddsmaker because the Lions are the right side.

Yes, both teams are in the playoffs. But the situation for each is different. The Packers have home-field advantage clinched throughout the playoffs. They can afford to sit out key players, which they will.

The Lions need to win to avoid probably meeting New Orleans in the first-round of the postseason. The Lions are young. Playing a road game at the Superdome against a great home team in the Saints would not be a good matchup for them - and they know it. Just four weeks ago, the Lions visited the Saints and lost 31-17.

Detroit would much rather meet the winner of the Giants-Cowboys, which would be the likely scenario if the Lions defeat Green Bay.

The Packers have no reason to expose Aaron Rodgers to the dirty tactics of the Lions, especially with several offensive linemen out for Green Bay. Matt Flynn is one of the better backups in the league, but he's far more a game-manager than playmaker.

Long-time left tackle Chad Clifton may finally be ready to play for the Packers, but he's going to be rusty. The Packers need to get Clifton ready for the playoffs, but can't take the chance of him protecting Rodgers' blind side against the Lions' active pass rushers.

It's not just Rodger who would see limited, if any, time. The Packers would hold out Greg Jennings for sure and other banged-up players, which could include Jermichael Finley, James Starks, Ryan Pickett, Bryan Bulaga and perhaps even Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. What would be the point of risking them?

The Lions are not some patsy. They surely can take advantage with a hot Matthew Stafford, who is averaging 349.7 yards passing in his last four games with nine touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three games.

Green Bay has flaws for a 14-1 team. The Packers rank second-to-last in total defense and passing yards. They have trouble running the ball ranking 27th and their offensive line has been spotty.

The Lions have the talent and motivation to spank the Packers by more than a field goal with Mike McCarthy choosing to wisely look down the road.

James Patrick Sports

Bills vs. Patriots

A win clinches the top seed for the Patriots after surging back from a (17-0) deficit last week. Buffalo won (34-31) with a great comeback when these teams met in week 3. Payback time for New England, which had won (15) straight vs. Buffalo until the defeat at Orchard Park. The Bills are (3-7) ATS in their last (10) meetings, (1-5) ATS in their last (6) games in January and (2-6) ATS in their last (8) games overall. The Patriots are (9-2-1) ATS in their last (12) games in Week 17, (7-3) ATS in their last (10) versus the AFC East and (8-3) ATS in their last (11) games following a ATS loss. Big Game James Patrick's complimentary New Year's Day NFL selection is New England Patriots.

Seahawks vs. Cardinals

It will be a fight to finish the season at (.500) and in second place in the NFC West when the Arizona Cardinals host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks won the first meeting (13-10) at home on the back of an (11) yard touchdown run in the third quarter by quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson has won five of his last seven starts and is (2-0) against Arizona. Seattle's Green Birds are (4-0-1) ATS in their last (5) games as a road underdog, (9-3-1) ATS in their last (13) games overall and (5-1) ATS in their last (6) games following a S.U. loss. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday complimentary selection is Seattle Seahawks.

Joe D'Amico

San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams
Pick: San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has been a machine this season, boasting a 12.3 SU record (12-2-1 ATS). The 49ers locked up the West for a few weeks now but can claim the #2 seed and a 1st round bye with a win here. All they have to do is repeat their December 4th, 26-0 win over the Rams. St. Louis averages a mere 11.1 PPG and has been blanked twice in the L4 weeks. This is a team that is being outscored by an average of 13.8 PPG. Kellen Clemens will once again get the nod. The QB has 1TD, 320 YP, and a 56% completion rate. Last week against Pittsburgh, Clemens was 9 for 24 with just 91 yards passing. He must face another ferocious, non-stop defense here. San Fran's stop unit has allowed a mere 13.5 PPG. St. Louis already has problems putting points on the board. The 49ers are 10-4 ATS their L14 games played against the Rams, 4-0-1 ATS their L5 games played as a favorite of 10 1/2 points or more, and 15-5-1 ATS their L21 games played overall. The Rams are 16-35 ATS their L51 games played vs. the NFC West, 3-12-1 ATS their L16 games played as a 'dog, and 1-7-1 ATS their L9 games played vs. teams with a winning record. Take San Francisco.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kansas City +3 +105 over DENVER

It can be gratifying to flaunt your new beau at a gathering when you know the ex (who dumped you) is going to be there. Kyle Orton was treated poorly from day one in Denver and when the relationship didn’t work out, he was courted and signed by the rival Chiefs. Orton’s replacement was none other than the enigmatic Tim Tebow. Anyone that’s ever watched a football game knows that Tebow is not of NFL caliber at the QB position. His ineptitude finally caught up to him and the Broncos, as Denver has dropped consecutive games by a combined 81-37. The Broncos 2-5 start was no fluke. They subsequently caught lightning in a bottle that lasted for an incredible two months. That fairy tale is over. Look for the Chiefs and Orton to rub it in their opponent’s face here, especially with the opportunity to knock Denver out of the playoffs. Play: Kansas +3 +105 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit –3½ over GREEN BAY

Aaron Rodgers said it best, “This was a good win for us to get back on the right track and get the No. 1 seed. Now that we have the top seed locked up, I think the priorities may shift a little.” While it’s never that easy, the Lions have plenty at stake to motivate them for this one. A Detroit win has them heading to the winner of Cowboys/Giants. A loss has them visiting the Saints. Do the math. They were whacked by New Orleans once in prime time and that was in Detroit. In other words, Detroit has plenty at stake here while the Packers have nothing to gain and everything to lose should they play to win. This one is yummy. Play: Detroit –3½ +100 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +8½ over PHILADELPHIA

Unless the Eagles are eligible for playoffs and no one told us, we can’t see why this game is priced in this range. This is a divisional matchup between two teams that will be watching the playoffs from home and where the road team has covered five straight. If not for four interceptions in previous meeting, the Redskins’ 20-13 loss to the Eagles may have had a different result. High expectations for the Eagles were finally put to rest last week after they were officially eliminated. What they did was go out and make life miserable for the Cowboys and the Jets over the past two weeks to get some satisfaction. There is no satisfaction in beating the ‘Skins. Once again, Philly’s stock is soaring and you may want to recall what happened when its stock was this high early in the year. Philadelphia is 2-5 at home this year and this one provides less motivation than any previous contests. Redskins could win this one outright. Play: Washington +8½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

San Diego +131 over OAKLAND

The Oakland Raiders lead the Titans and Jets for the #7 seed due to strength of victory. They would clinch the West and #4 seed with a win and a Broncos loss. Raiders would clinch the #6 seed with a win and a Bengals loss and either/both a Titans loss and/or Jets win. In other words, if the Raiders win here they have a good chance of getting to the dance. Meanwhile, the Chargers are out. However, they know that Norv Turner is getting fired. They know they can make life miserable for a hated rival. They know (and so do we) they have more talent than the Raiders. The Chargers have a lot to be embarrassed about. The team has turned into a garbage scow fouling the waters of the San Diego bay but they can at least go out with some dignity for themselves and for their coach. Call this the final hurrah for Turner and expect these huge underachievers to come up big when all the pressure is off. Play: San Diego +131 (Risking 2 units).

THE REST:

San Francisco –10½ over ST. LOUIS

The Rams are just 60 minutes away from ending this nightmarish season but they’ll have to pay a price before doing so. The Niners need this game and with their rugged style and St. Louis’ fragile state a decisive win is to be expected. Rams have scored just 26 points over past four weeks. Play: San Francisco –10½ (No bets).

HOUSTON +3 over Tennessee

The Titans need a win and an awful lot of help from others to qualify for the post-season. The Texans are secured in their playoff spot but after dropping a pair and having 10 days to get ready for this one, we expect an ambitious effort from the host before limping in to first-ever playoffs. Host needs to get right for playoffs and go into them in a good state of mind. Titans favored on the road here is wrong. Weren’t they the first team to lose to Indy this year? That was on the road too. Play: Houston +3 (No bets).

Indianapolis +3½ over JACKSONVILLE

Had the Colts truly cared about getting first pick in the upcoming draft, they would have allowed Curtis Painter to continue at quarterback. They didn’t and they’ve won consecutive games. The Jaguars are at par with Indianapolis and cannot be trusted to win, let alone by a margin. Play: Indianapolis +3½ (No bets).

MIAMI –1½ over N.Y. Jets

The Jets chances of making the playoffs are about the same as Rex Ryan having a mount in next year’s Kentucky Derby. While Gang Green will be going all out, the Dolphins will relish the spoilers’ role and with jobs on the line and having won four of six, have to lean home team at short price. Play: Miami –1½ (No bets).

MINNESOTA –1½ over Chicago

Bears were in the thick of things until injuries decimated star players and things went downhill from there. The Vikings never got up the hill but that allowed them to look at some young players, including QB Joe Webb who is exciting to watch and could be the difference maker in this one. For a Bears team that looked like a lock to make the playoffs five weeks ago and that were officially eliminated last week, this one figures to be tough to get up for. Play: Minnesota –1½ (No bets).

NEW ENGLAND –10 over Buffalo

Plenty of motivation remains for the Patriots here as a win secures home field for playoffs and New England hasn’t forgotten an early season 34-31 loss to these Bills. Buffalo can’t be trusted on the road, having given up at least 28 points to its past five opponents while being outscored 171-73. Play: New England –10 (No bets).

Carolina +8 over NEW ORLEANS

Tough situation for the Saints coaching staff as this one goes same time as Rams/Niners. If San Fran wins, which is likely, then New Orleans is locked in as a #3 seed. Coach Sean Payton should call off the dogs at some point and that will suit Cam Newton’s explosive offense just fine. Play: Carolina +8 (No bets).

ATLANTA –11 over Tampa Bay

Another funny spot. If Detroit defeats Green Bay, Atlanta is flying to New Orleans next week. If Packers win, the Falcons would head to either Dallas or the Giants with a victory. Thus, the Falcoms will begin this game thinking they can move up in the seeding and that makes them playable. The Bucs are hopeless as they’ve dropped nine straight, they’re completely uninspired and most of their recent losses have were of blowout proportions. Play: Atlanta –11 (No bets).

Baltimore –2 over CINCINNATI

Bengals have yet to defeat a winner this season and while the Ravens have been less than impressive lately, they are at their best when playing in division with a 5-0 mark. Considering Baltimore’s pedigree and that the Ravens can lock up a #2 seed in AFC with a win, it seems the better way to go. Not convincingly, just the better way. Play: Baltimore –2 (No bets).

CLEVELAND +7 over Pittsburgh

This is another awkward one as the Steelers can only win division if Ravens lose to Bengals but both games go at same time. That said, more inclined to lean Browns here as Pittsburgh figures to remain cautious with some of its key guys on the limp. Play: Cleveland +7 (No bets).

Seattle +3 over ARIZONA

Cardinals might be fun to watch but not if you need them to win by a margin. After Arizona’s 28-21 opening game win over the Panthers, the Cards have won just two games by more than four points and both of those were by same 19-13 counts that occurred in overtime. Play: Seattle +3 (No bets).

Dallas +3 over N.Y. GIANTS

Early playoff game as the winner advances and the loser goes golfing. Most think the Cowboys will fail but we’re not so sure considering that Dallas is best when taking points and Giants are wretched when giving any away. The Giants battled back to win three weeks ago and this one should be tight as well. Play: Dallas +3 (No bets).

Bryan Power

San Francisco at St. Louis
Pick: Under 35.5

Last week on this page, I predicted the Rams would go Under in their game w/ the Steelers and not only did that happen, but they failed to score even a single point. How awful is this team? Let me tell you! In six of 15 games this season, St. Louis has scored 7 or fewer points, including two shutout losses the last four weeks. One of those was (obviously) last week vs. Pittsburgh, the other was against this week's opponent, division leading San Francisco, by a nearly identical score. For the year, the Rams average just 11.1 PPG and have only 15 touchdowns, or one per game! San Francisco has hardly been an offensive juggernaut itself, scoring 20 pts or less each of the last three games. Their red zone efficiency numbers are terrible, which is why K Akers just set a record for most FG's made. If you have the Red Zone channel, this is not a game I expect you will see much of come Sunday.

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Green Bay Packers

A sarcastic congratulations to the Detroit Lions who clinched their first playoff spot since 1999 ? and kicked us in the gut in the process ? with a surprisingly easy win over the Chargers last week at home. And with the Packers likely to rest most of their regulars in the second half, the Lions may even garner their first 11-win season since 1991 and the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs. However, with the Pack having everything sewn up and nothing to play for, Detroit may actually arrive as road chalk, to which we say no thanks ? not after a week of sipping free bubbly in every Motown establishment and entering today game with a pathetic 18 GAME LOSING STREAK on the division road against winning opponents. Yes, Green Bay has everything clinched but we?re sure they?re aware that since 1980, of the 109 teams that have entered the playoffs off a loss, only SIX of them have gone on to win the Super Bowl! And thankfully, we?re aware that teams who have already clinched a spot in post-season play are a surprising 20-7 ATS as home dogs in season-enders. That ties in nicely to the Pack?s sweet 16-1 SU and 11-4-2 ATS mark in Game Sixteen of the season and basically assures that the Lions will fall to 1-9 SU and ATS on the road after a non-conference affair. Remember, the Lions play a Wild Card game next week and will likely be resting starters of their own. Mister Rodgers and company will be marching into the playoffs with yet another win as the Packers make it 21 wins in a row at Lambeau over the Lions today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Green Bay.

Ben Burns

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
PICK: New England Patriots -10.5

I won with the Bills last week. They figure to be in over their heads here though. Last week's game was at home vs. Denver. Now, they're playing at Gillette Stadium, where they've never won. (The Bills are 0-9 all-time here and have lost 10 straight road games in the series.)

The Patriots still have something to play for; they're still looking to secure the #1 seed in the AFC. They also have "payback" on their minds, as the Bills beat them early in the season.

Brady had this to say about that setback: "I think everyone still has a pretty bitter taste in our mouths from the last time we lost to the Buffalo Bills. It was an incredibly difficult loss for our team. Everyone is going to be excited to go out there and see if we can do a better job."

Note that the Pats are 50-30-4 ATS the last 84 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, 5-2-1 ATS their last eight in that role.

The Bills are seriously banged-up. They accomplished what they wanted last week; winning their home finale. They should be ripe to get blown out here. Note that Buffalo's most recent road game resulted in a 37-10 loss.

The Pats have something to prove. We know the offense should score but I also expect them to be determined to improve their defensive play.

Last year, the teams played a close game in December. Yet, when they met after Christmas, the Pats won 34-3. That was in Week 16. The Pats followed it up with a 38-7 victory (vs Miami) in Week 17.

With the line falling from its opener, consider laying the points with what should be a determined (and superior) New England squad.

Wunderdog

Tennessee at Houston
Pick: Houston +1.5

There isn't anything Houston can do to change their playoffs seeding in this game, as they will be the No. 3 seed win or lose. Despite that I think Houston has some work to do on offense with Taylor Yates. It looks like Andre Johnson will be playing this week, so this game could be a good tune-up to get them in-sync. What might be more important is having Wade Phillips back on the sidelines after surgery to help get the Texans’ rush defense back in order. Tennessee is in a must-win situation, but that only means they are a marginal playoff team and teams in this role often struggle, and the line is usually inflated on top of it. The Texans come in with a 16-5 ATS mark at home vs. a team with a winning road record in their last 21, and are also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog. The Titans are not getting it done as road chalk at 1-5 ATS in their last six, and the dog has ruled this series at 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Houston is the pick.

Scott Rickenbach

Colts @ Jaguars
PICK: Over 37

This is a match-up of two teams for which whom the season's end could not have come soon enough. The Jaguars are 4-11 on the season and the Colts are an ugly 2-13. However, Indianapolis has won two straight games and they've scored 19 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. Though their last two games have stayed under the total, note that Indianapolis' defense has been like a sieve in road games this season. They've allowed at least 24 points in all 7 of their road games this season. Though their most recent road game stayed under the total four of their five previous road games went over the total. As for the Jaguars, they were an under machine for the first half of the season. However, they have since gone over the total in four straight games. That said, in a meaningless (for both clubs) season finale, we see no reason to expect any kind of special defensive intensity. That said, the offenses absolutely should lead the charge in this one. The last times these teams met the game stayed well under the total and that is helping to offer substantial line value for "over players" in this rematch. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Jacksonville in Sunday's season finale.

Teddy Covers

Bears @ Vikings
PICK: Over 41

The betting markets simply haven’t caught up with how bad the Minnesota Vikings defense actually is these days, giving us a remarkably low total for a team that simply isn’t able to compete defensively at this late stage of the season. Minnesota has sent virtually every contributor – both starters and backups from their secondary – onto the injured reserve list since the start of the season. And that’s left the Vikings with a historically toothless defense.

The numbers don’t lie. Over a nine game span that ended against Rex Grossman last week, the Vikings allowed opposing QBs to complete 198 of 270 pass attempts (73%) for 2412 yards. During that span, Minnesota has allowed 25 touchdown passes without a single interception! Their opposing QB passer rating was a truly unbelievable 131.3. Just to put that in some perspective, the single worst QB rating allowed in NFL history for a full season? 110.8.

Chicago’s defense certainly isn’t an elite unit, by any stretch of the imagination, and a meaningless season finale isn’t likely to bring out the best in a team that was thinking ‘playoffs’ for the first eleven weeks of the season, before Jay Cutler got hurt. The Bears have allowed 38 and 35 in their last two ballgames; unable to consistently stop the run or the pass. But with Josh McCown taking over for the incompetent Caleb Hanie at QB, this offense showed some spark last week, especially with Kahlil Bell enjoying his first 100 yard game of the season.

Two decent offenses. Two bad defenses. A fast track and no weather to worry about in the Metrodome. And let’s not forget a series history that is chock full of shootouts. Their first meeting this year produced 49 points. Other recent meetings have produced 54, 40, 66, 46, 48 and 89 points in the six other games since the start of the 2008 campaign. Expect more fireworks here! Take the Over.

Matt Fargo

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
PICK: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5

We got away with one last week with Oakland as the Raiders kept their divisional hopes alive by blocking a Kansas City field goal and then hitting their own field goal to win in overtime. The Chiefs won the yardage battle by 127 total yards and head into Denver with one goal, to play spoiler and get their revenge. Kansas City lost the first meeting at home as the Broncos piled up 244 yards rushing but that is skewed somewhat as Denver ran the ball 55 times.

It is pretty simple for the Broncos as all they have to do is win and they take home the AFC West. The way they have been playing though, it won't be that easy. They have dropped their last two games including a brutal loss in Buffalo last Sunday and prior to that, their previous five wins all came by a possession or less including the final three by exactly three points, two coming in overtime. The fourth quarter heroics have come to an end and now the pressure lies squarely on Tim Tebow and the Broncos.

Chiefs quarterback Kyle Orton has a chance to extract his own revenge against the team that let him go in November. He has been playing very well and despite a couple of interceptions last week, he looks very comfortable in the offense. He has a chance for another big game as the Broncos secondary is banged up and the defense that carried Denver through its winning run has given up 802 yards in two weeks. He also knows this defense by practicing against it most of the season and he knows the weaknesses.

All of the Tebow MVP talk quickly went away as he has committed as many turnovers in his last two games as he had in his previous eight games combined. After getting trounced against the Patriots, the Chiefs defense has been superb as they have allowed only 281.6 ypg over their last five games. Kansas City allowed only 313 yards in the first game against Denver but the defense felt it did not play good so there is a lot of motivation on that side of the ball as well.

During the Broncos six-game winning streak, they covered the first five games but they were underdogs in every one of those games. Denver has been a favorite five times this season and it just 1-4 ATS and it is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games as a home favorite of fewer than three points. Also, we play against home favorites that are averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after two straight losses by 10 or more points. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) since 1983.

Jack Jones

San Francisco 49ers -10

The San Francisco 49ers have a lot to play for Sunday, while the St. Louis Rams have nothing to play for. St. Louis can only hurt themselves by winning this game, which would potentially cost them the No. 1 pick. San Francisco would clinch the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye with a win.

The 49ers (12-3) clinched the NFC West title and their first playoff berth since 2002 with a 26-0 win over the Rams (2-13) on Dec. 4. All they have to do to claim that first-round bye is beat a St. Louis team which has lost six straight by a 150-53 score.

Frank Gore should be excited to face the league's worst run defense. St. Louis gives up 154.5 rushing yards per game. San Francisco is No. 1 in that category (75.1) and has allowed the fewest points in the league (202). St. Louis has a league-low 166 points, the only team to have scored fewer than 200.

The 49ers held the Rams to 157 total yards in December's victory and held leading rusher Steven Jackson to 19 on 10 carries. It was the second time in the last five meetings that St. Louis couldn't score on the 49ers. It's been a miserable season for the Rams, who have scored an NFL-low 15 touchdowns and rank last in third-down efficiency.

St. Louis is coming off its second shutout loss in four games, 27-0 to Pittsburgh last Saturday. Kellen Clemens started in place of the injured Sam Bradford at quarterback and completed 9 of 24 for 91 yards. Bradford is doubtful to start this game as well.

San Francisco is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The 49ers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite, including 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. The Rams are 1-7-1 ATS in thier last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. St. Louis is 16-35 ATS in their last 51 vs. NFC West opponents. Bet the 49ers Sunday.

Steve Janus

Washington Redskins +9

I really like the Redskins to cover this huge spread and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won this game outright. No matter what the standings, Washington always seems to play their NFC East rivals tough. They have already beat the Giants twice this season, loss by a total of five points in two games against the Cowboys, and lost by just a touchdown in the first game against the Eagles. Philadelphia has looked impressive during their current three game winning streak, but this is a big let down spot. The Eagles had their hopes of backdooring the NFC East title crushed with a Giants win last week. They still went out and beat up on the Cowboys, but there is a big difference in getting motivated to play Dallas compared to a 5-10 Redskins team.