Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -3
The Broncos need to win this one to insure they win the AFC West. They will do so knowing they fit a solid week 17 system that plays on week 17 home favorites vs an opponent off a home favored loss and had 250 or more yards passing and our team was a road favorite last week. These home teams have won and covered 11 of the last 12 times since 1989. Denver is 6-1 ats when the total is 35.5 to 42 and has won and covered 3 of 4 vs teams under .500. They won here last season by 20 points and KC Doesn't have much to play for. K. Orton would like to win this one since he was shipped off in favor of Tebow. However he is still learning the offense and you just get the feeling you will see the best of Tebow and an improved effort from a Denver defense that has allowed 40 or better back to back weeks. Look for Denver to get the win.
Black Widow
1* Atlanta Falcons -10
The Atlanta Falcons have made franchise history by clinching a second straight playoff berth, and they certainly want to have a great performance Sunday to build some momentum heading into the postseason. Atlanta tries to reach double-digit wins in a second consecutive year for the first time Sunday when it hosts the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have lost nine straight games while getting outscored 64-158 in their last four. This team has clearly packed it in and I have no reason to believe they will show up Sunday after what they've shown me. The Falcons still have something to play for considering they could get the No. 5 seed with a win and a Detroit loss. That would be big since they would likely have to play the New Orleans Saints on the road if they are the No. 6 seed. If they get to the No. 5 seed, the would play the winner of Dallas/New York game tonight. Atlanta is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, including 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Falcons are also a perfect 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The Bucs are 4-11 ATS in all games this season, including 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Take the Falcons and lay the points.
MTi Sports
Jets at Dolphins
Play: Over
The Dolphins and Matt Moore need to show the Jets that they are a lot different team than they were on Monday Night in week five, when the Jets kept the them winless with a 24-6 thrashing on Monday Night football. The Dolphins? offense, which has struggled mightily, is finally getting in sync behind Matt Moore. Over the first seven games of the season, Miami was 0-7 and averaged 15.3 ppg. Over their last eight games, Miami is 5-3 straight up and has averaged 25.4 ppg. The Jets can?t win low scoring games like they used to be able to. In the five games this season that the Jets scored fewer than 24 points, they are 0-5. In the seven games that they scored more than 24 points, they are 7-0. This is a must win for the Jets, so we expect them to try to score more than 24 points, rather than play a battle of field position. The Dolphins, certainly, will be aggressive. The Jets are 10-0 OU (+9.7 ppg) as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average, 9-0 OU (+8.6 ppg) as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average and 7-0 OU (+9.6 ppg) vs a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. More to the point, the Jets are 7-0 OU (+12.1 ppg) as a dog after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. Finally, the Jets are 11-0 OU (+7.2 ppg) after stopping their opponent on at least 10 third down attempts. As for the Dolphins, they are 9-0 OU (+11.7 ppg) at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The SDQL is straightforward: Finally, for Miami, they are 8-0 OU (+8.9 ppg) as a home favorite after a straight up loss. Let?s go over this low number.
MTi's FORECAST: MIAMI 30 NY Jets 27
Steve Merril
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Play: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati will look to accomplish two things when they wrap up the regular season at home against Baltimore. First, they will look to avenge a 31-24 loss to the Ravens from back in November. The Bengals out-gained the Ravens by 110 yards (483-373) but fell victim to untimely turnovers. Bengals QB Andy Dalton threw for a season-high 373 yards against a tough Ravens pass defense; they rank 4th in the NFL allowing opponents to throw for less than 200 yards per game. Dalton’s 3 interceptions in that game were not indicative of his season, and we do not feel that he will be as careless with his decisions this week. Secondly, with a win, the Bengals can play the role of a spoiler and keep the Ravens from securing home field advantage for the playoffs. Baltimore has struggled on the road going 3-4 SU and ATS this season. They have really struggled in Cincinnati lately, losing 5 of their last 6 games there. Ravens QB Joe Flacco has had his problems against the Bengals; he has just 4 touchdowns against 10 interceptions in his last five games against Cincinnati. Flacco was intercepted a career-high 4 times last season in Cincinnati as the Bengals came away with a 15-10 win at home. Cincinnati’s defense ranks 4th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 97 yards per game. They will be motivated to hold Ray Rice to less than the 104 yards he had in their previous meeting. The Bengals played well enough in November to beat the Ravens, and they will look to get their revenge at home this week. The fact that they can keep the Ravens from having home field advantage in the playoffs is an added bonus. Both of these teams have something to play for, so we expect a tight game throughout. This game is sold out, only the second sellout at Paul Brown Stadium this season, which gives the Bengals a definite home field advantage this week. We recommend taking the points with Cincinnati in this game.
David Chan
Calgary Flames @ Nashville Predators
PICK: Calgary Flames
Miikka Kiprusoff is set to battle Pekka Rinne between the pipes.
Calgary comes into this game having lost two straight, and is desperate for a win.
The Flames are on the road for nearly two weeks because of the World Junior Championships; they're coming off a hard-fought 4-3 loss to Ottawa on Friday.
Calgary has wasted early leads:
“In the first, we weren’t that sharp anyway,” said Rene Bourque, who has 12 goals this year. “We didn’t play well (Friday night), plain and simple. We really didn’t deserve to be up 3-0.”
Kiprusoff is 1-2-0 with a 1.36 goals-against average versus Nashville this season.
The Preds are coming off a 2-1 shootout win over the Blues on Friday; Rinne is 2-1-0 with a 0.67 GAA vs. Calgary this year.
Rinne has been pivotal in the Predators success, giving up just two goals over the last two games; note though that he had given up 19 while losing three of his previous four.
Calgary is 7-4 (+3.9 units) in its last 11 after allowing 4-goals or more.
In my humble opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value"; I expect Calgary to exact its revenge!
Seam Murphy
Portland @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: L.A. Clippers -3
I'll take a shot with the Clippers in this spot, as they look to bounce back from a pair of tough losses to the Spurs and Bulls.
It's no real surprise that Los Angeles has struggled in the early going. What has been somewhat surprising has been their lack of defensive fire over the last two games, allowing 115 and 114 points.
I see this as a nice opportunity for the Clips to get things right, as they welcome a Blazers team that's riding high following a perfect 3-0 start, having scored over 100 points in each of those victories.
Are the Blazers really as good as their 3-0 record would seem to indicate? I'm not so sure. They had to hold off a late push from the 76ers in their opener, ultimately winning the game by only four points. While they did demolish the Kings in their second game, they were back to fighting tooth and nail last time out, pulling away in the closing minutes against the Nuggets.
Now the Blazers face their first road test of the season, and it comes against a hungry and highly-motivated Clippers squad.
This line has been bet down from the opener of -5, as the betting marketplace seems a little unsure of the Clips right now. Rightfully so given their poor start, but I expect to see more of the team that routed the Warriors in its opener rather than the one that's suffered back-to-back losses.
Dave Price
1 Unit Atlanta Falcons -10
Look for the Falcons to post a comfortable win over a Tampa Bay team that is 0-9 straight up and 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games. This disappointing season could not be over with fast enough for the Bucs. Plus, it is important for Atlanta to play well today following a disappointing performance last week so it has some momentum heading into the postseason. Lay the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit San Francisco 49ers -10
The San Francisco 49ers (12-3) can lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs with a win over the St. Louis Rams (2-13) Sunday. The Rams, who are coming off a 27-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers - their sixth consecutive defeat - fell 26-0 to the 49ers on Dec. 4. The Niners have won six of the last seven in this series and four of those wins have come by 19 points or more. A wins does nothing for the Rams today as they can earn the No. 1 pick in the draft with a loss and a win by the Indianapolis Colts. Even if the Rams decide to play to win, they'll get nothing easy against a San Francisco defense ranked No. 1 in the league with 13.5 points allowed per game. St. Louis has scored an NFL-low 15 touchdowns on the season. The 49ers are an NFL-best 12-2-1 against the spread, and they are 4-0-1 against the number in their last five games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more. The Rams are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit New England Patriots -10
Needing a win to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and motivated by a loss to Buffalo earlier this season that snapped a 15-game winning streak in the series, expect the Pats to take care of business in convincing fashion. The Bills, who have endured a number of injuries at key spots, aren't the same team that overcame a 21-0 deficit in the season's first meeting. Expect the Pats to jump out early again and to hold on this time around. New England is 7-0 ATS under coach Belichick when out to avenge an upset loss on the road, winning in this situation by an average of 19.8 points. Lay the number.
Jim Feist
Portland Trailblazers at LA Clippers
Play: Portland Trailblazers
Portland off to a red-hot start, going 3-0 to start the season. The Blazers have scored 107, 101 and 111 points in their first three games. Now the club takes to the road for the first time this season as they put their perfect record on the line. Meanwhile, there are high hopes in LA this year and it's not for the Lakers. After signing Chris Paul in the preseason, the Clippers became the talk of the town as he now pairs up with Blake Griffin. However, it might take a bit of time for these two to jell as the club has lost two of their first three games after a loss to Chicago on Friday, 114-101. The Clippers need to do a bit better on the boards, as they have been outrebounded in two of their three games. I am looking at the Blazers winning this game straight-up, but the 3 1/2 points are nice to take too. The Clippers will get better, but they are still struggling early. Take the points here on Sunday night.
Bobby Conn
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos
Play: Denver Broncos -3
Hard not to like the Broncos laying only three at home. I know Kansas City has been playing better the past two games after firing Haley. Denver has lost their luster after consecutive losses to the Patriots and Bills, but the different this week is Denver returns to the run game. They threw only a handful of passes against Kansas City last time and won the game, but the past two games Tebow has had to drop back and throw the ball. Even if the Chiefs stack the box, you are going to see Denver pound away. This game is ugly and low scoring, but the Denver defense will handle the Chiefs offense and let the Broncos pull out the low scoring win.
SPORTS WAGERS
Portland +3½ over L.A. CLIPPERS
Much like the Knicks, the Clippers came into the season with a lot of hype and higher expectations than ever. They’ve gotten off to a slow 1-2 start with only win coming over the Warriors. The Clippers have been whacked twice, once by San Antonio and once in their home opener against the Bulls. With Chris Paul and Blake Griffin getting more comfortable and used to one another, the Clip Joint will win a lot of games but they’re still out of sync, they still have a weak frontcourt and they haven’t proved they’re worthy of laying points against good teams. The Trail Blazers are off to a quick 3-0 start. The Blazers seem prepared for the compressed schedule, as a rebuilt guard rotation has kept up the energy. Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and Nolan Smith are newbies and Elliot Williams might as well be after missing his entire rookie season. They'll join Wes Matthews, Nic Batum and Gerald Wallace to give the Blazers a deep perimeter contingent. Marcus Camby is a rebounding machine but until he gets inevitably hurt he makes a difference out there. The Blazers can't match up for seven games against elite frontcourts or A-list perimeter stars but in one game against this flawed team that is struggling, they certainly have a great shot. Play: Portland +3½ (Risking 2.2 units).
Toronto +11½ over ORLANDO
Expect to see the Raptors in this section quite a bit because they’re usually receiving an inflated number and that’s the case again here. Most project the Raps to win between 14-18 games but after three games, the signs are all positive that they’ll be in most games and win more than that. Dwayne Casey has them playing excellent defense and that was his first goal to gaining respectability. The team has bought into his system and although they’re 1-2, they could easily be 3-0. The Raps two losses came at home to Indiana by five points and in Dallas in a game they led by eight late in the third. This is exactly the type of game that should worry Magic backers. They play in Detroit tomorrow and that will be their fourth game in five nights. Chances are they’ll take the Raps lightly and want to save some energy for tomorrow’s road tilt. The Raps could come in sharper and actually steal a win here. We’ll take the points and risk a small amount on the money line too. Play: Toronto +11½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2) Play: Toronto +688 (Risking 0.25 units to win 1.72 units).
WASHINGTON +7 over Boston
The Celtics were in here twice last year and they split them with both games being decided by less than three points. That was a great Celtic team while this year squad is not. In both those games last year, Boston was a –7-point favorite, the exact same price they are today. That strongly confirms that we’re on the “right side” of this game. The Celtics were thin even before they got the awful news about Jeff Green. Their big four, Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, are going to log heavy minutes. This isn't the season to do that. Brandon Bass can help as a midrange shooter but the lack of offensive punch on the second unit has been evident in the C’s first four games. Boston's experience and toughness ensure that the Celtics will be a tough out in the postseason, but they might have to overcome a mediocre seed because of games like this. Washington comes in 0-3 with two blowout losses, thus creating the overlay. The two blowout losses were both on the road. The Wizards have a lot of young and talented players. We’re treated to amazing feats by the likes of JaVale McGee and John Wall. Plays nobody else in basketball can make. Mixed in, however, will be all kinds of unexpected knucklehead moves that you'd rarely see from another pro team and it costs them games. In spite of themselves, the Wizards are slowly getting better. No way should the Celtics be the same price as they were twice last season when they failed to cover both games. Play: Washington +7 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Vegas Experts
Panthers at Saints
Play: Over
Considering these teams combined for 57 points in the season's first meeting and 93 points last week, it is certainly reasonable to expect plenty of points in this NFC South curtain call. The Panthers have gone Over in 9 of 11 conference games this season while the Saints are averaging 40 PPG in the Superdome this year. Carolina is scoring and allowing more than 27 PPG on the road.
Larry Ness
Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: Dallas Mavericks
Does a single win get the Mavericks their swagger back? Do the defending champs actually need swagger to beat the still-winless T-wolves? The Mavs opened the season 0-3 but finally got that first win, beating the Raptors 99-86 on Friday night. Dallas has a different look this year but still relies on Nowitzki (22.0-5.8) and Terry (15.5-4.8 APG) to do most of the 'heavy lifting' when it comes to putting points on the board. The T-wolves have a 'human double-double' player in Kevin Love (26.0-14.7), who has returned leaner and meaner after a terrific season last year (averaged 20.2-15.2). Beasley (14.3) is a solid second-scorer but no one will confuse his work ethic with that of Love. Barea (11.5) now plays for Minnesota and could give his ex-teammates fits in this game plus Ricky Rubio has finally arrived in Minnesota. After three games, he's averaging 8.0-4.7-7.3 in about 28 MPG but the T-wolves are winless. However, it should be noted that the losses have come by just a combined NINE points. Beating the Mavericks is NOT something the T-wolves are used to, as the Mavs are 18-1 against the T-wolves dating back to January. 7, 2006 and over that 19-game stretch, have gone 9-0 at the Target Center, winning by an average of 15.5 PPG. I'm NOT 'stepping in front of that freight train! Take the defending champs.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
MARQUETTE -10.5 over Villanova: The Golden eagles had a rough showing last time out as they lost by 17 points at home to a hot Vandy squad. Marquette was never in that game and were truly embarrassed on their home floor so I expect a much more spirited and focused effort this time out. Even with that rough showing they have still outscored their opponents by 21.9 ppg at home as they have averaged 81.6 ppg on 48.2% shooting, while allowing 59.7 ppg on 36.5% shooting there. Today they should get back on track vs a Villanova squad that isn't expected to much in the Big East this year. Villanova is 7-6 on the year, but 0-3 in their true road games and they have been outscored by 13.7 nppg in the 3 games, while losing each one by at least 11 points. Villanova has allowed 78.7 ppg on a whopping 47.2 % shooting in their road games this year and will not be able to stop this KEY TRENDS--- VILLANOVA is 3-16 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons, while MARQUETTE is 13-3 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
Southern Illinois/ Illinois State Over 124.5: Normally when ya think of the Salukis ya think defense, but that has not been the case this year as they have allowed 66.8 ppg overall, including 82.8 ppg in their last 4 games. They have played great defense at home this year (59.2 ppg), but they haven't really played anyone there yet and they will be taking on an Illinois State team that has been hot of late, putting up 70.8 ppg in their last 4 games. The Redbirds have allowed just 57.2 ppg on the year, while the Salukis have put up 62 ppg on the year and I do expect at least 60 form them here and that would be golden for us as I expect no less than 65 from the Redbirds. Illinois State's last 5 have averaged 127 ppg, while SIU's last 5 have averaged 147 ppg. Look for this game to fall somewhere between the two numbers.
2 UNIT PLAY
Rutgers/ South Florida Over 118: The Bulls offense has not been great this year as they have averaged just 60 ppg overall, but at home (Tampa is a home game for them) they have averaged 69.9 ppg. Rutgers has averaged 70 ppg on 44.7 % shooting this year, while they have averaged 77.5 ppg on 47.7% shooting in their last 4 games. Those last 4 games for Rutgers have averaged 142.5 ppg. The Bulls have played good defense this year (58.9 ppg), and they have allowed 55 ppg at home, but this hot Rutgers offense should be able to crack this defense for more than that. South Florida home games have averaged 124.9 ppg and i do expect no less than 125 here. KEY TREND--- RUTGERS is 10-1 OVER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons. Average points scored 144.5 ppg.
1 UNIT PLAY
Minnesota +7 Over MICHIGAN: This gophers team is really playing well this year as they stand at 12-2 and they haven't lost a beat with the loss of Mbakwe. The Gophers are coming off a loss at Illinois, but they did take them to OT in that game. Michigan is off to a fine start this year as well and they are 1-0 in the Big 10, but playing Minnesota is a whole lot different than playing Minnesota. I look for the Gophers to keep it close here.