Wunderdog
Green Bay @ Washington
Pick: Green Bay +1
These teams are heading in opposite directions, or at least it would appear as Kirk Cousins looks more like Aaron Rodgers than Aaron Rodgers himself. There is a hidden issue in this game. The Redskins did not beat a single team with a winning record this season, and subsequently saw very little resistance in their passing game. They only faced three teams all season that allow fewer than 20.5 points per game as the Packers do, and they generated 704 yards of total offense in the three games. Cousins threw four INTs in the three games, and Washington was 0-3 SU and 0-3 ATS in those games, getting outscored 35-15.3 or by 20 points per game. The rest of their schedule against bad teams kept a bad defense from being truly exposed as they were able to hold onto the ball longer, limiting the time the defense was on the field. However, that has not been the case against a team that doesn't allow points, where they allowed 35 ppg! Mike McCarthy is 24-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less. I think Green Bay is better served here on the road away from the naysayers in Green Bay, and against an opponent they have a much better matchup against, and they will take advantage of it. Green Bay takes this one.
Vernon Croy
Seattle (-5.5) over Minnesota
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems, and I have Seattle winning this game by at least seven points here Sunday. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. I look for Seattle to shut down the Vikings running game for the most part and it will force Minnesota into costly turnovers. The favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games played between these two teams and Seattle is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games when playing a team that has a winning record at home. Seattle has arguably the best defense in the NFL, allowing just 17.3 PPG, which ranks 1st, and they are No. 1 against the run. If the Vikings can't move the ball on the ground I have them getting blown out Sunday against a Seahawks offense that has put up the 4th most yards in the NFL this season.
Allen Eastman
Richmond over Fordham
I like this Spiders team to shoot down Fordham this afternoon. Fordham has gotten off to a really nice start this year at 9-3. But they bulked up their win total with a weak nonconference schedule. They didn't play anyone and didn't beat anyone of note. The Rams have lost back-to-back games to Boston College and George Washington. Richmond is as good or better than both. Fordham is also dealing with some injury issues, and this veteran Richmond team should take advantage. The Spiders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight league games, and I think that they will win this one going away.
Art Aronson
Packers vs. Redskins
Play: Under 45½
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Game plans: Washington would be wise to air it out to start this game as the Packers' front four have been anemic with pressure this season and this invariably leads to their secondary getting gassed quicker than usual. But the Redskins normal game-plan involves a commitment to the run and a short passing scheme which includes drag routes and short outs, to go along with a play action bootleg for Kirk Cousins to hit a RB or TE.
Green Bay would be wise to establish the run game, as Aaron Rodgers has simply not received proper protection all year; there's no question that the visitors will be running the ball to start this game so in hopes to open up the play-action later. Controlling the clock, so as to keep its defense off the field of play for as long as possible will be crucial in the Packers chances of scoring the playoff road victory.
Both teams must establish the run to have success and running the ball invariably leads to clock-killing.
Washington's under the radar defense: The Redskins would finish just No. 28 overall in the league defensively, but the team would make up for it by generating 26 takeaways, tired for ninth-best in the league.
Green Bay discipline: The Packers committed just 17 turnovers all year, the second-best number in the NFC, while Rodgers remains one of the most disciplined QB's in the game.
Strong trends: Note that the UNDER is 10-3 in Green Bay's last 13 games and 6-2 in the last eight games between the two teams.
The bottom line: This one has all the makings of a "chess-match," where field position is likely to play a big part in the final outcome and because of that, we'll highly recommend a second look at the UNDER in this Wild Card match-up.
Oskeim Sports
Seahawks -4
Seattle enters the NFL Playoffs for the fourth consecutive year and has won its last five road games by an average of 22 points per game. Not long ago the Seahawks traveled to Minnesota and left with a convincing 38-7 win, limiting the Vikings to a mere 125 total yards. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson, the key component to Minnesota's offense, was held to just 18 rushing yards.
Minnesota takes the field with a subpar offense that is averaging 321 total yards per game at 5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play. The Vikings' one-dimensional attack relies too heavily on Peterson, which allows opposing defenses to stack the box against the run.
Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has only thrown fourteen touchdown passes (9 interceptions) this season and now faces an outstanding Seattle secondary that is allowing just 6.1 yards per pass attempt to a group of quarterbacks who would combine to average 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
Overall, Minnesota's aerial attack is 0.4 yards per pass play worse than average (6.4 yards per pass attempt against teams that would combine to allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt), thereby giving the Seahawks' ball-hawking defense a significant 1.1 yards per pass play advantage in this game. In short, I don't envision a scenario under which Bridgewater has success throwing the ball Sunday afternoon.
The question is whether Peterson will have better success against this time around against a stout Seattle front seven that is 0.6 yards per rush play better than average (82 rushing yards at 3.6 yards per carry to teams that would combine to average 112 rushing yards at 4.2 yards per carry). The answer to that question is a resounding no.
Seattle held nine of of its opponents to thirteen or fewer points this season and possesses the NFL's #1 scoring defense at 17.3 points per game. The Seahawks' run defense limited opposing running backs to just 73 rushing yards per game at 3.4 yards per carry on the road this season, and Peterson is likely to be victimized by Seattle's stop unit for a second straight time at TCF Bank Stadium.
Seattle possesses a surging offense that is averaging 26.4 points and 379 total yards per game at 6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yards per play. The Seahawks are also averaging 373 total yards per game at 5.9 yards per play so they are more than capable of moving the ball on foreign soil.
In its final eight games of the regular season, Seattle's offense averaged 32 points and 404 yards per game, a dramatic improvement over the 21 points and 353 total yards per game the Seahawks averaged during the first eight games of the 2015 regular season. Let's also note that Minnesota was 2-4 SU versus .501 or greater opposition this season where it was -61.0 yards per game and -5.0 turnovers.
With the favorite standing at 4-0 ATS in this series, lay the points with Seattle and invest with confidence.
Randall the Handle
Seahawks (10-6) at Vikings (11-5)
It is not without trepidation that one can fade the Seahawks. They are an experienced and dangerous club after appearing in previous two Super Bowls. They’re also on a roll at the moment after winning six of seven including a dismantling of division leader Arizona last week. During this run, we’ve seen the reins loosened on QB Russell Wilson, either out of necessity after injuries to starting running backs or a change in philosophy, resulting in 30+ points in five of seven games. RB Marshawn Lynch is due back for this important playoff game and that makes the visitor all the more beastly. Defensively, Seattle has been very efficient, allowing a league-best 17.4 points per game. Like we said, lots to like. However, we have no problem getting behind an 11-5 Minnesota team taking generous points on its home field. Minnesota plays a conservative style that is reminiscent of Seattle’s successful style. The Vikes like to run league rushing leader Adrian Peterson and then rely on defence to do the rest. Minnesota allowed the second-fewest points in the NFC, just 25 more than its guest. The Vikings will have to get to Wilson in order to have success and we believe they can as he was sacked an alarming 45 times this season while Minny delivered the seventh-most sacks in the league. Seattle bashed the Vikes 38-7 at this venue just over a month ago. Winning handily in consecutive visits rarely happens. We’re banking that it doesn’t. TAKING: VIKINGS +5
Packers (10-6) at Redskins (9-7)
Green Bay fans, sorry to inform you, but your team is kind of kaput. Take all the time you need. Yes, the Packers made it to the playoffs, but the team was on a downward slide after a 6-0 start, only to go 4-6 the rest of the way. QB Aaron Rodgers remains a stud, but there is a considerable dropoff after him. The Pro Bowl QB is surrounded by limited-skill position players and an inconsistent ground game. With a paper-thin offensive line, Rodgers spends much of his time running for cover while improvising plays. Making matters worse is the injury to starting left tackle David Bakhtiari, currently listed as doubtful for this one. The protector of Rodgers’ left side, Bakhtiari missed last Sunday’s important contest against the Vikings, leading to five Minnesota sacks. Green Bay’s experience counts for something, but it limps into this game while its opponent may be peaking at just the right time. The Redskins have won four straight, five of six and have scored 34 or more in the final three games of the season. QB Kirk Cousins has rewarded the team that showed confidence in him by firing 14 touchdowns compared to one interception in that six-game stretch. On the season, Washington actually gained more yards and scored more points than the Packers. With playmakers such as DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, why wouldn’t they? Oddsmakers know how deviant it may seem to have the Redskins favoured here. So they open at pick ’em and, as expected, the sheeple are backing the Pack based on reputation. We’d rather side with the facts. TAKING: REDSKINS +1
AC DINERO
Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins
Play: Washington Redskins Pk
NFC Wild Card My initial reaction to this line was the odds-maker was begging you to take Green Bay. This team was a preseason favorite (I picked them to win it), they have the experience, and they had a hall of fame QB in Aaron Rodgers. They take on a team that was picked last in their division. That team won arguably the worst division in the NFL. Yes, the have a hot QB in Kirk Cousins. But they have a sub-par defense. Putting it bluntly, the packers have stunk it up to end the season, especially against the run 4.5 YPC). It just looks too easy to take Green Bay, so I won't
Vegas Butcher
Washington Redskins -1
Some models indicate that ‘recent trends’ don’t have any statistical impact on a team’s performance in the playoffs when compared to full-year statistics. That might be true and all, but to me Washington passes the ‘eye’ test while the Packers do not when it comes to entering the post-season. Green Bay is on a 2-game losing streak scoring a combined 21 points in those two games. By comparison, Washington is on a 4-game winning streak averaging close to 33 PPG in that span. This is a team that has played much better at home this year, while the Packers have been pretty mediocre on the road. Let’s compare the two:
WAS at home vs GB on the road:
WAS O: +14% DVOA (#9) vs GB D: +3% DVOA (#19)
GB O: -5% DVOA (#19) vs WAS D: -4% DVOA (#16)
In both instances, Washington offense and defense have been much better at home, than Green Bay’s offense and defense. Green Bay’s top CB, Sam Shields, is out, which should only make it easier for the home team to move the ball offensively. At the same time, one thing that Washington does well defensive is pressure the QB, ranking 8th with a 7% ASR% in that department. Green Bay is 23rd in pass protection and dealing with injuries to a number of their offensive linemen. If they struggle with pass-protection again (like they did to end the season), Washington will have a strong chance in this one. But even if they don’t, I think the home team has an advantage in the shoot-out, and that’s primarily due to QB play:
Rodgers: -1% DVOA (#17); 65 QBR (#10); 5.7 PY/A (#42); 61% Completion %
Cousins: +17% DVOA (#6); 70 QBR (#6); 7.0 PY/A (#9); 70% Completion %
Cousins has been the better QB this year and he has better weapons around him than Rodgers. I think Washington is a better team in this matchup, and the fact that you can get them under a FG provides strong value in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Mavericks vs. Wolves
Play: Under 198½
This game fits a nice league wide totals system that dates to 1995 and plays to the under for rested home dogs like the Wolves if the total is 190 or higher and they are off a home dog straight up and spread loss by 10 or more points and scored 90 or more points, while allowing 120 or more points and their opponent for this game was on the road in their last game. Dallas has stayed under in 6 of their last 7 and the Timberwolves in 6 of their last 7 home games. Look for this one to stay under.
Big Al
Seattle vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota
These two teams met five weeks ago, and the Vikings were blown out on this field, 38-7. But you know what they say about paybacks! And since 1980, in the NFL Playoffs, teams playing with revenge from a loss in which they gave up 28 or more points are 55-37 ATS, including 5-0 ATS as a home underdog. That’s one reason I favor Minnesota. Another is that home underdogs off back to back wins are 26-5 ATS in non-division games since 1980, if they own a better record than their opponent, including 7-1 ATS in the Playoffs.
DAVE COKIN
RHODE ISLAND AT ST. JOSEPH’S
PLAY: ST. JOSEPH’S -3.5
Here’s a Sunday matchup between a pair of solid A-10 entries as URI travels to Philadelphia to meet St. Joe’s. The Rams have acquitted themselves well despite losing their best player for the season with an injury. The Hawks have pretty much been what they were expected to be prior to the season.
St. Joe’s has a pair of stars in Isaiah Miles and DeAndre’ Bembry. The Hawks basically go seven-deep and they’re a team that takes excellent care of the ball and appears very sound fundamentally. In other words, a typical Phil Martello team, albeit one that is more athletic than some recent editions. The Hawks aren’t imposing physically but they do most things well and after struggling to a 13-18 record last year, there’s more excitement about this year’s squad.
URI was dealt a terrible blow when EC Matthews got hurt in the season opener and was lost for the entire season. This was probably a cinch NCAA team and a serious A-10 title contender with Matthews leading the way. I’m impressed, though not surprised with how well respected coach Dan Hurley has kept it together for the Rams. Throw out the loss to Valparaiso, as that came right after Matthews got hurt and the team undoubtedly had a brief period of depression. Nevertheless, and in spite of Hurley’s expertise, this team is simply not what it could have been.
The key for Rhody here is offensive efficiency. They’ve put up some superb numbers in opening A-10 play with a couple of wins. But those were both at home and one of the wins was against a reeling Saint Louis entry. I will be surprised if they can maintain those levels in hostile surroundings. It’s also perhaps a slightly bigger game for the Hawks. They’re off a tough three-point home loss to VCU, a game they’d have won had they not uncharacteristically missed a load of free throws.
This figures to be a highly competitive game, but my matchup numbers are favoring the hosts. With the number being where it is, I’m willing to go with St. Joe’s to pull out the win and cover.
Bruce Marshall
Oakland, Mich -21
As long as Oakland has some gas left in its tank after Friday's failed Horizon showdown vs. Valpo, this one could get ugly, as Golden Griz HC Greg Kampe will not have to remind his troops about overlooking UIC after being upset last Monday by lightly-regarded Youngstown. It's hard to envision Steve McClain's completely rebuilding Flames keeping pace with Oakland fireball Kahlil Felder (26.1 ppg!) and the go-go Griz offense, scoring 87 ppg.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Under in the Seahawks-Vikings game.
Deja Vu?
Seattle slammed Minnesota, 38-7 back on December 6th at TCF Bank Stadium in a game that did go Over the total of 43 thanks to the 38 big ones Pete Carroll's team put up that afternoon. The temperature that day was a "balmy" 30-plus degrees. That will NOT be the case today in the Twin Cities where they temp will be around 1F with a wind chill that will push this game into the negative numbers!!
I do not see many points being scored simply based on the weather.
The Seahawks have played 4 straight Unders since that Over game in Minny, while the Vikings did see 5 of their 8 home games hold Under this year. The Minnesota defense has limited the opposition to 17, 17, and 13 points the past 3 weeks, and if the purple and gold harbor any shot at an outright victory, then they had better keep Russell Wilson in the pocket and under wraps.
Not sure the Vikes can win it outright, but I am sure this frigid weather will make it tough for very many scoring chances.
Seahawks-Vikings Under the total.
4* SEATTLE-MINNESOTA UNDER
Brad Wilton
My Sunday free play winner will be the Rhode Island Rams plus a few points on the Main Line in Philadelphia today against the St. Joseph's Hawks in an Atlantic Ten clash.
Rhode Island was very impressive earlier this week in their 77-65 home win and cover over Richmond, as the Rams are now on a modest 3 game winning streak.
The face a Hawks team that may still be smarting from blowing a double-digit lead late in the second half against VCU on Hawk Hill on Wednesday night.
The Rams were able to snap a 5 game series losing streak with a 78-68 win last March at home against the Hawks, and at 10-5 now for the season, there is every reason to believe the Rams will at least be there to get the cover plus the points this afternoon in Philly.
Take URI.
3* RHODE ISLAND
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Richmond Spiders minus a small number at the Fordham Rams. I've been impressed by the Spiders ever since seeing them play here in Las Vegas over Thanksgiving weekend, when they knocked off then-nationally ranked California.
The Spiders will have their hands full against Fordham, but the oddsmakers got it right in this one, making the road team a slight favorite.
While Richmond comes into this game with an 8-6 overall record, it is in must-win mode at 0-2 in conference play, after a 77-65 A-10 loss at Rhode Island on Saturday. Fordham (10-3, 1-1) comes in oln a 10-game home winning streak.
But, the Spiders have won the last nine meetings, including a 73-71 win in Richmond last year.
Take the road chalk.
1* RICHMOND