Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: Purdue (-10') at ILLINOIS
The STORYLINE in this game today - The Purdue Boilermakers make their way to Illinois for a Sunday night clash, and my money is on the road chalk to take down a battered Fighting Illni team that won't have much fight left by the second half.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is Purdue's 7-footer A.J. Hammons, who is averaging 14.1 points per game and 7.8 rebounds per game. As he generally has, Hammons has opened Big Ten Conference play strong, averaging 25.4 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks while shooting 70 percent from the field.
BOTTOM LINE is - Illinois, meanwhile doesn't expect forward Leron Black or post player Mike Thorne, Jr., back from injury. Black posted a double-double against the Boilermakers last season and gives a huge boost for this lineup, when in it. The Illni can't compare to the Boilermakers in this one.
2* PURDUE
Scott Delaney
My free play for tonight is in the NBA, as I take the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Cavaliers are perfect right now, during a six-game road trip. Remaining perfect shouldn't be a problem against one of the most embarrassing teams in history.
Cleveland has won six straight games (four in a row on the road) and 12 of its last 14 contests. This season, the Cavs are an Eastern Conference-best 25-9 overall.
The Cavs are in after a 125-99 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was Cleveland's third 20-point victory in its last four games. In the win over the Wolves, Cleveland shot 43 of 81 (.531) from the field, including 13 of 27 (.481) from the 3-point line.
The Cavaliers have scored at least 120 points in a franchise-record tying three straight games.
Again, remaining perfect during this junket shouldn't be a problem against one of the most embarrassing teams in history.
3* CLEVELAND
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the OKC Thunder minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers. At the time of this writing, the Thunder are laying 7 to 7 1/2 points in Vegas and offshore.
Yes, the Thunder looked terrible in a four-point win over the Lakers, but clearly OKC wasn't focused while the Lakers were coming in off a very good showing against the Kings the night before.
Tonight they have to deal with Damian Lillard who is coming in off a 40-point performance Friday night... and I don't think the Thunder will be quite as passive.
Remember, they still have Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant and the Blazers simply don't have an answer for either of those guys.
Portland plays well in spurts, but they don't play defense anymore like they used to after they lost all those players... and that's going to play right into OKC's hands.
Take the Thunder in a rout as your free play of the day.
4* OKLAHOMA CITY
Bill Biles
Redskins/Packers Over 44.5
These teams struggle on defense and the offenses can put up the points. I expect both teams to score in the 20's and the over to hit. Kirk Cousins led the league this year in completion % and Aaron Rodgers always is dangerous.
Scott Spreitzer
Celtics vs. Grizzlies
Play: Celtics +1½
Brad Stevens returns to the bench on Sunday and we may see Avery Bradley (hip) return to the floor. Whether Bradley plays or not, I do expect the Celtics to bounce back in the win column after dropping their last two games. Boston still owns decent defensive efficiency numbers and will face a hamstrung Grizzlies' squad with Courtney Lee and Mike Conley still nursing injuries (both are doubtful). Memphis has played small-ball of late, but the results have been 50-50 over their last eight games. Memphis doesn't give up a lot of points, but it's due more to tempo than anything else. The Grizzlies are middle of the pack in FG percentage allowed and even worse against the trey. The Grizzlies can't shoot straight at the other end where they rank 27th in FG percentage and 29th in 3-point accuracy. We had Boston on these pages on January 4 and they followed two straight losses with a spread-covering win at Brooklyn. They have since lost two straight, dropping games to the Bulls and Pistons, but I believe a bounce-back is in store again. The Celtics have covered eight of their last 10 on the road and six of their last eight in Memphis.
Ari Atari
Cavs vs. 76ers
Play: Cavs -15
125, 121,122 offensive outbursts in 3 recent games during a 6 game winning run for the Cavs have the doubters thinking that this team is and will be the top team in the East the rest of the way. Philly got beat up at home yesterday to Toronto and they'll get beaten up again today. 76ers are 0-5 ATS in a back to back set.
Sam Martin
Packers vs. Redskins
Play: Redskins -1
This game seems like a trap set by the linesmakers, knowing that the general betting public will be all over the Packers but still listing the Redskins as a small home favorite (as of this writing). We aren't biting, and we'll back Washington at home to end Green Bay's season - a season that began with big injuries to their receiving corps and has been plagued by inconsistent play all season long.
Packers offense in general, and quarterback Aaron Rogers in particular, never seemed right this season. They have suffered a number of head-scratching losses in the second half of the season, including outright losses against Detroit and Chicago (also needed a Hail Mary pass to beat the Lions in Detroit) as well as unmotivated defeats to close the year against Arizona and Minnesota. Washington has quietly been building momentum at the end of the year and have found a legit passing threat with Kirk Cousins down the stretch. That passing game find magic late as Washington advances!
Mike Lundin
Pacers vs. Rockets
Play: Pacers +1½
This looks like a good spot to back the Indiana Pacers as they visit the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center. The Pacers are off back-to-back wins after holding both Orlando and New Orleans to 86 points each. They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five away from home. The Rockets are just 8-16 ATS when coming into a game as a favorite this season and 3-10 ATS in non-conference games. They had only nine healthy players in Thursday's 103-94 win against the Jazz and I can easily see them struggle with the versatile Pacers here. The Rockets 16.6 turnovers per 100 possessions are the second most in the league while the Pacers' 16.5 forced per 100 rank fifth. The Rockets trouble to hold on to the ball could end up costing them dearly here, and I recommend a play on the Pacers.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA +5 over Seattle
The Seahawks annihilated the Vikings just six weeks in Minnesota by a score of 38-7. Seattle had 25 first downs that game to Minnesota's nine and they also out-gained the Vikes 433-125. It was a complete massacre on the scoreboard and it was a massacre in the statistics as well. That massacre has heavily influenced the market. Frankly, we don't care about the score of that game because blowouts happen all the time and the Vikes were flat that day. What matters more to us is that the Seahawks were a 2½-point favorite in that Week 13 blowout and today they are two-points higher. Today, Minnesota is a stronger team and Seattle is weaker without Marshall Lynch. Perhaps most importantly, this game will be played in frigid temperatures. Game time temperature is projected to be -25 Celsius (-13 Farenheit) in Minnesota and so spotting road points in extreme conditions in what figures to be a difficult day to put up points is far too risky.
Seattle is also a familiar and popular playoff team that the market has embraced this time of year for quite some time while the Vikes are an unfamiliar playoff team. That also has influence on this number, as oddsmakers try to “balance the books” by putting up a number that will create equal action. We'll look to take advantage of that.
Minnesota was not expected to win the division but they did. Throughout the season the Vikings have accomplished feats that haven't been achieved in several years. They won in Chicago. They had a winning record on the road. They won back-to-back prime time games to dethrone their hated rivals in the NFC North. The Vikes kept answering the bell all season and we're not going to ignore that here. In that first match-up, Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr, and Linval Joseph played a grand total of 17 snaps. That number should be much higher here, which means the defensive performance by the Vikes should be much better. The Vikings shook off that loss to Seattle like it didn't happen and the response is more important than the result. They're a better team because of it. The Vikings are a confident outfit with a strong running game and defense. Minnesota likely doesn't have to score much or move the ball consistently to win. Special teams, defense and one play per quarter in the passing game might be enough for victory in what should be a low scoring slugfest. Take the points.
WASHINGTON -1 over Green Bay
This game is priced like these two teams are virtual equals but we're having a hard time buying that. After starting the season 6-0, the Packers have won four games in 10 tries and one of those was a complete miracle over Detroit. Call it three true wins in their final 10 games. The Packers didn't fight their way into the playoffs, they backed in. Aaron Rodgers had a couple of monster games but since Week 10 he's been average at best. The last eight games contain only 12 passing touchdowns. Since Week 11, Rodgers has never thrown for 300 yards and he only gets worse by ending with three games of just a single touchdown pass and three interceptions and three lost fumbles in that time. Watching Rodgers always spawns the optimism that he's just about to pull off a big game but he doesn't.
Rodgers can't be blamed because he simply doesn't have the protection that an NFL QB requires to have a big game. Hell, at the time of this writing, Rodgers doesn't even know who will be protecting his blindside. It may surprise you to learn that the Packers passing attack ended up being ranked 26th in the league. Green Bay has now scored a grand total of just 21 points in losses to Arizona and the Vikings in its last two games. The Packers' defense also has to share some of the blame for the second-half slide. in their last six losses Green Bay's points-allowed average has jumped to 26.5, up from 20 points per game before the offense started to struggle.
The Redskins are a different story. Aside from home games against the Saints and Buccaneers, Kirk Cousins threw for exactly one score in each of the first thirteen games. However, he finished the season with 12 touchdowns over the final three weeks and ended with five 300+ yard games since mid-season. That largely had to do with getting DeSean Jackson back and then relying heavily on Jordan Reed. The 'Skins are 4-0 over the last four games, they're scoring a ton of points, they're scoring first, and they're diversified. The question now becomes whether or not to ride the hot hand of Kirk Cousins or the playoff experience of the great Aaron Rodgers. It's a question many will wrestle with before pulling the trigger here but here's what we know for sure. The Packers lost home games down the stretch to each division foe, Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota. When the Pack played in Arizona in Week 16, they lost by 30 points. Take away the first half and that miracle win against Detroit and we're looking at a 3-7 team playing a road playoff game. These two regimes are moving in opposite directions with the Packers' miserable second half having bottomed out. The Redskins' has not....
Jim Feist
Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
Pick: New York Knicks
Milwaukee hits the road for one game here tonight at the Knicks. The Bucks are coming off a home win over Dallas, 96-95. It was the club's third win in their last five games. The Bucks are just 2-7 ATS on the road this season. New York has been playing much better, winning four of their last six games. They also shocked the Spurs on Saturday, losing at San Antonio 100-99 as a 15-point dog. It was the club's fourth straight cover and their 11th in their last 15 games. The have followed up wins very well, going 14-5 ATS the last 19 times after a cover. Knicks playing with lots of confidence all of a sudden and I like them laying five points here tonight against Milwaukee.
Harry Bondi
Seattle / Minnesota Over 39.5
Nice free winner here yesterday on Northern Illinois in college hoops and today we go to the NFL Playoffs and take advantage of a bad line. When these two teams played on this same field four weeks ago the line was 43.5 and the game went over for the fourth time in the last five meetings between these two teams. This game opened at 42 at nearly every sportsbook on the planet, but has plummeted, crossing the key number of 41 because of an overreaction to the weather. Yes, it is going to be absolutely freezing in Minnesota today, but the key here is that it is not supposed to be windy. We expect both offenses to still move the ball effectively today. In the NFL, any total under 40 is worth a serious look and today we are getting an absolute bargain on the price. Go over!
Jeffrey James
Green Bay Packers
I know the Packers have not been world beaters lately but the playoffs is a whole different ballgame. Who do you trust more at this point of the season Rodgers or Cousins? A pretty easy answer there. The Washington defense was pretty bad against the pass which will help the Packers air attack look much better and the simple difference in strength of schedule will give Green Bay a big advantage. Take the Packers as the play of the day.
Mark Franco
Seahawks -5
The Seahawks destroyed the Vikings when the two teams last met in a 38-7 trouncing. But for a late-game kickoff return it would have been a shutout. I’m looking for the Vikings to find it tough to run the ball and that will put added pressure on Teddy Bridgewater. The Seahawks are rolling on offense and I see them covering this number fairly easy. Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Packers/Redskins Over 45
Washington is on a roll heading into the playoffs, with Kirk Cousins playing his best football. He should have some big plays here vs. the Green Bay secondary. I think Rodgers is ready for a big game against a suspect Washington secondary as well and that will lead to points. Over is 7-3 in Packers last 10 playoff road games. Over is 11-2 in Redskins last 13 games following a ATS win. take this game over the posted total.
Michael Alexander
Seattle
Vikings reaped quite a reward for their upset of the Packers, namely hosting the best team in the NFL. Minnesota is just superb, with its current 21-5 ATS run, 22-5 ATS versus non-division opponents. But Peterson and team will find the going a bit tougher versus the Seahawks, who hold a 224-98 point edge in their last 7 games, with Wilson at 24 touchdowns and only 1 interception over that span, as well as 1,038-401 rushing yard advantage. Teddy and Co are up against it in this one, even with the weather projected to be well below zero.
Mike Handzelek
Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Play: Minnesota Vikings +4.5
Not many prognosticators had Minnesota winning the NFC North but here they are. Those who witnessed the 1st meeting between these 2 will probably shy away from the Vikings as well. However, revenge has a way of raising up its head when you have a vastly healthier defense cropping up on the revenger the 2nd time out. There are still many out there that say Seattle is the best team in the NFC. I say "OVERRATED"! Yes, they're a talented bunch with playoff experience. But their true SU record is 9-7 (if the Detroit game was officiated correctly) with 2 losses to St. Louis, a team the Vikings beat earlier. So what changes this time around? Well, this time around Minnesota won't have their talented FS & SS (Harrison Smith & Andrew Sendejo) out of the lineup for most of the game OR SLB Anthony Barr exiting early with an injury. This changed the whole complexion of the game as QB Russell Wilson (34/8 TD/INT ratio, 68.1 completion %, 553 rushing yards, 110.1 passer rating) easily picked apart the 2nd-stringers with consistent downfield strikes to WR's Doug Baldwin (78 receptions, 1,069 yards, 13.7 YPC & 14 TD's) & Tyler Lockett (51 catches, 664 yards, 13 YPC & 6 TD's). The Purple People Eaters have awesome blueprints laid by the Rams on harassing Wilson with a spy to cut down on long runs when coverage is tight. Another drastic change will be to the Seahawks running game. Thomas Rawls is out which could force a rusty Marshawn Lynch into service. If Lynch is unable to declare himself good for action, RB Christine Michael will be pushed into the # 1 role in the backfield. My bottom line says QB Teddy Bridgewater gets the ball to their NFL rushing-leading RB Adrian Peterson (1,485 yards good for 4.5 yards a pop & 11 TD's) early behind strong run-blocking from C Joe Burger & Co.. This will set up the play-action game nicely for Bridgewater to go over the top. How effective S Kam Chancellor remains to be seen. Let's now look @ some key numbers. HC Pete Carroll is just 1-4 in his career SU on the road in the playoffs (only win coming back @ Washington in 2012). Remember that Seattle did NOT play a road game getting to the Super Bowl the last 2 years. Another hard-to-deny fact is that Super Bowl losers who come back the next year to play a team off back-to-back SU/ATS wins are a ticket-ripping 1-9 SU & ATS. Even though the Seahawks' defense has generated some nice stats & accolades, Zimmer's Purple & Gold "D" have also done the job more often than not recording 48 sacks, 65 hits & 227 hurries this season. This should keep Wilson scrambling if key personnel STAY intact. The weather in Minneapolis should hover between 15-26 below F. with the wind chill which could favor the home team getting points. The last time Minnesota played an outdoor playoff game was in 1976 when HC Bud Grant & QB Fran Tarkenton were on the sidelines @ Metropolitan Stadium in Bloomington when they beat the Los Angeles Rams 24-13. I'm ready to jet up to TCF Bank Stadium to play the Minnesota Vikings (but buy to + 7 1/2 -190) where we want it with a home dog who hangs around the number frequently-- as my 8 Star NFC Rematch Survivor!