Jimmy Boyd
Celtics -2
I believe this is an ideal spot to jump on the Celtics, as they travel to take on the depleted Grizzlies on Sunday. Memphis isn't expected to have the services of starting point guard Mike Conley, as well as Courtney Lee. Boston on the other hand gets back a big piece of their team with Avery Bradley set to return from a hip injury.
Key here is that the Celtics aren't going to care who takes the floor for the Grizzlies. Their entire focus will be on getting a win at all cost, as they have lost 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 overall. This is too talented of a team to continue playing this poorly. Keep in mind that Boston will be fresh for this matchup, as they have had the last 2 days off.
Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games and 12-2 ATS in their last 14 road games when they come in having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Memphis is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 following a SU win and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 against a team with a winning record.
Ricky Tran
Celtics vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies +2
While day of the week trends can be a bit dodgy, here's one too strong to neglect: The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 away from home but just 3-17 SU and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 on the road on a Sunday. They're hoping to have Avery Bradley back from injury, but he'll most likely be a bit rusty after sitting out three games. The Grizzlies have covered the spread in five straight games home at FedExForum. Boston won the last matchup in this series 95-92 back in March last year, but the Grizzlies had won the previous five, including three straight home at Memphis.
SPORTS WAGERS
Buffalo +160 over WINNIPEG
OT included. The prices on the Sabres keep increasing because they are on a six-game losing streak. Four of those six losses occurred against the hottest teams in the NHL. During this current funk, the Sabres lost to the Capitals not once but twice, the Panthers and the Blackhawks. Another loss occurred against the Islanders, 2-1 in a game that the Sabres had 27 scoring chances to the Islanders 16. The other loss occurred against Detroit, 4-3 in a game that the Sabres outshot the Red Wings, 35-23 and out-chanced them too. Buffalo has scored two goals or less in five of those six losses but it's not because they aren't getting chances. Buffalo has run into what we call a run of extreme poor “puck luck”. They are hitting posts and running into some goalies that are making spectacular saves every game. It's frustrating for the players for sure but we remain behind our insistence that this is a solid team with nothing but upside. The Sabres are actually playing much better now during this losing streak than they were when they were winning games in October, November and early December. Buffalo perhaps played their best period of the season against Chicago on Friday but once again came away with nothing. Buffalo's Corsi against numbers over the past month has seen them jump ahead of Washington, the Rangers, Dallas, Boston and Minnesota to name a few. This is a seriously undervalued squad that we're not giving up on just yet.
Winnipeg does not deserve to be in this price range against anyone. Here's a team that has not won consecutive games in over a month. Winnipeg's last win occurred in Nashville in a game the Jets were outshot in 44-18. They won because All-Star Pekka Rinne allowed three goals on 16 shots before an empty netter sealed it. The game prior to that, the Jets lost in Anaheim, 4-1 and were outshot, 35-20. Now the Jets return home from a five-game trip that started in Arizona and ended in Dallas. They have been getting some pretty sweet goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck but they have been hugely inconsistent all year with one great game followed by two weak one's. Nobody can make a case that the Jets have been working harder than the Sabres this year and it would be hard to make a case that the Jets have been better than Buffalo either. Wins and losses are what counts in every sport and it influences the line but what wins and losses do not reveal is how good or bad each team is playing. Give Buffalo a great shot to snap out of it here at a great price.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Memphis
Pick: Boston
This line actually opened with the Celtics getting 1.5, but with it looking less likely that Grizzlies PG Mike Conley will play, it has steamed in favor of the road team. Boston, who could again be w/o HC Brad Stevens, has dropped B2B games but despite being 8th in the conference still has one of the better point differentials.
So, I'll lay the points as it's looking like Boston will be getting back one of its key offensive contributors, that being Avery Bradley, who is averaging 14.7 points per game. The team has not shot the ball well of late, but that's okay against Memphis who is off a relatively ugly 91-84 win over Denver. The Grizzlies, who have not shot the ball well all season, average just 95.8 PPG. Because they suffered some early season blowouts, Memphis' overall numbers are still a bit negatively skewed. But still, my own power ratings do indicate that they should be the dog here.
As an underdog this year, Memphis is only 4-12 straight up and 5-10-1 against the spread. The points likely aren't going to be enough to help them here. The Celtics are 6-3-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference this year, winning by an average of 5.2 points per game. Meanwhile, Memphis is only 6-8-1 ATS vs. the East, getting outscored by 1.3 points per game.
Dave Cokin
Packers at Redskins
Play: Packers +1
Green Bay is just 4-6 since starting 6-0. But I'm just not buying the Redskins. They've done some good things down the stretch, but none of that was against anyone who could play. Washington faced three +.500 teams this season and lost all three games. This team is in the playoffs because it plays in a terrible division. No question the Packers have declined thanks to all the injuries, particularly along the offensive line. That's a concern here, but the numbers still favor GB and I'd rather ride the experience of Rodgers and the Packers as a whole. It's definitely not a slam dunk on the math, and Washington arrives with no pressure, but I'm siding with the Packers to eke this one out.
Wunderdog
New Orleans @ Los Angeles
Pick: New Orleans +8.5
New Orleans averages 101 points per game with plenty of players who can put the ball in the basket. Ryan Anderson is averaging 16.7 points and Tyreke Evans (15.9) poured in 27 on Friday to match his season high while dishing out 7.1 assists per contest, and guard Eric Gordon chips in 15.3 points per contest. This young team likes to run, and the Pelicans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 Sunday games. They face a Los Angeles Clippers squad that outscores opponents by 3.5 points and is still without injured All-Star forward Blake Griffin (quad), who has missed the last seven games and is expected back later this month. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS following a straight up win of more than 10 points, as well as 3-8 ATS against the NBA Southwest Division. This is the second of a back-to-back spot for the Clippers after topping Charlotte last night while New Orleans has one day of rest. And when these teams clash, the Pelicans are 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings.
Dwayne Bryant
Cavaliers at Philadelphia
Play: Over 203.5
The Cavaliers averaged 122.7 points and 54.1% shooting (47.2% from 3-point range) in their last three contests. I'm a firm believer in "what goes up, must come down," but I can't see the Cavs' shooting coming down too much against one of the NBA's worst defensive clubs. I can't lay 15 points or so on the NBA road, but the OVER looks like a solid play. During this hot-shooting 3-game stretch, Cleveland has allowed their opponents to shoot 50% from the field, including a ridiculous 49.2% from long range. The 76ers have also been shooting well as of late, hitting 49.8% from the field in their last three tilts. The OVER is worth a look here.