Norm Hitzges
Double Play - Green Bay +1 vs Arizona
VEGAS VIC
Packers (+1) over CARDINALS
When Arizona found out before its Week 17 kickoff that its chance for a first-round bye was history, it played - or should we say, did not play - accordingly. Kurt Warner played only two series, before Matt Leinart mopped up. It'll be a different group of Cards on Sunday, but after looking at their body of work this season, we just don't get that warm fuzzy feeling about them that we had last year in the playoffs. And possibly going in without WR Anquan Boldin (sprained ankle), as well as injuries to cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and defensive end Calais Campbell, is bound to have an effect on 'Zona. We are getting a warm fuzzy feeling about this Green Bay team, which has the best defense in the NFC and comes rolling into this rematch on a gorgeous 8-0 spread run. It ain't gonna be a blowout like Sunday, but the Packers are best bet of the weekend as they roll into the second round.
Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS
Here's what we know: Wes Welker, Tom Brady's lifeline, and the league leader with 123 receptions, is gone with a knee injury. He will be replaced by Julian Edelman, a rookie who played quarterback at Kent State. If Edelman beats me, I'll rip up my betting slip with a smile. Here's what we're not sure about: Brady could have anywhere from one to three broken ribs, a possible broken finger, and some kind of shoulder tweak. Still, he's Tom Brady, so we'll keep a wary eye out for any late injury news, and possible line move. Baltimore comes in with a pretty healthy squad, including the return of OT Jared Gaither, a vital cog in the running game. With the dynamic duo of Ray Rice (1,339 yards rushing and 78 receptions) and Willis McGahee, Joe Flacco should be able to keep the Ravens close enough to win on a late field goal or cover.
SPORTS WAGERS
NEW ENGLAND –3 over Baltimore
Much has been made of the Patriots losing its best receiver, Wes Walker, to injury last week against the Texans and all I can say to that is, “big deal”. They still have Randy Moss and a wide-open Sam Aiken, Ben Watson or Julian Edelman will be just as good as a wide open Wes Walker. You see, the Ravens virtually have no pass rush, not to mention “B” cornerbacks and giving Tom Brady time to throw against poor coverage is death and that’s precisely what’ll occur here. New England already beat the Ravens in Baltimore way back in week 4 and that was at a time when Brady was just starting to feel comfortable again. Now he’s very comfortable and he’ll feel even better knowing that the Ravens won’t get close to him. So, while I’m not sold on the Patriots being the powerhouse they were a couple of seasons ago, they’re still far superior to this invader. In fact, the Patriots should have its way, both on the ground and in the air and watching these Ravens play from behind will not be a pretty sight for Baltimore backers. Play: New England –3 (Risking 2.26 units to win 2).
Green Bay to win the Super Bowl +17.00
I could play the Packers to beat the Cardinals, as I like them to do so but this wager has a lot more value and should the Packers lose here, I don’t want to risk two bets. What I do know is that the Packers are peaking at precisely the right time. Both its defense and offense is playing as well or better than anyone else and that’s very significant. In fact, the Packers have all the right ingredients to make a deep run. They have a great quarterback that cannot only hit his receiver’s square in the numbers but he can run too. The Pack won seven of its last eight games and that includes a 10-point win over Dallas in which they held the Boys to just seven points. In the last three weeks they put up 36, 48 and 33 points respectively and that’s a testament to just how well this offense is going right now. Again, the Packers underrated defense is also playing well and we’ve seen it over and over in this league and that’s a team on a roll heading into the playoffs can go a long, long way, just like the Cards did last season and just like the G-Men did when they won the Super Bowl as a wildcard team just two years ago. Should the Pack win this week they’ll become even more dangerous. Play: Green Bay +17-1 to win the Super Bowl (Risking 1 unit).
Randall the Handle
Ravens @ Patriots
This price would lead us to believe that the bloom has come off of New England’s rose. While we acknowledge that Bill Belichick’s squad is not as dominant as previous editions, what have the Ravens done to warrant this type of respect? They are a 9-7 squad that needed to defeat the Raiders in their season finale to qualify for these playoffs. That was one of three road victories against five losses, one being early on in San Diego and the other in Cleveland. The victory against the Chargers represented Baltimore’s only win against a playoff team. Against other post-season qualifiers, the Ravens were a miserable 0-5. Despite their perceived drop-off, the Pats won all eight of their home games this season. Only the season opener against Buffalo provided a win by less than six points. Under Tom Brady’s guidance, New England has now won 20 straight regular season games on this field, in addition to an 8-0 mark in the playoffs. Included in the home streak was an earlier 27-21 victory over these same visitors. There is concern over the loss of Patriots’ receiver Wes Welker but replacement Julian Edelmen is an exciting young player that is capable of creating some big plays for his side. Given Brady’s talented offensive line and Baltimore’s suspect pass rush, Brady should have the time he needs to find his playmakers. Combine that with the Pats underrated defence and Baltimore’s shaky kicking game, we don’t believe the host will be the team that withers.
TAKING: New England –3 RISKING: 2.26 units to win to 2
Packers @ Cardinals
Last year, the 9-7 Cardinals made it to the playoffs, headed to Carolina as a 10-point underdog in the wild-card round and disassembled the 12-4 Panthers by a 33-13 count. A year later, the Cards have a trip to the Super Bowl under their belt, an improved 10-6 record and now get to play this game at home. Yet, they are only a 1-point favourite? Did Arizona get worse and we missed it? Are the Packers that good to justify this number? Once again, we believe last week’s 33-7 win by Green Bay on this field has influenced this number. If so, that’s absurd. While Green Bay may not have gone all out, they were at least in drive while the Cardinals were in park. Last week was Matt Leinart. This week is Kurt Warner. Warner is a playoff maniac. He’s 8-3 in post-season play, has been to three Super Bowls and this year’s team is better than last’s, with the advent of a running game. The Packers are hot. They’ve won seven of eight down the stretch and are certainly a dangerous opponent. But this is Aaron Rodgers first gig in the playoffs. Having been sacked a league-high 51 times this season, Rodgers can expect a sea of red coming at him on Sunday. He also doesn’t have the receivers that Arizona does. Cardinal’s Larry Fitzgerald is a monster and if you’ve forgotten, watch some playoff hi-lites from last year’s playoff run. This one has excitement written all over it but overall talent, experience and home field allows the Cardinals to advance.
TAKING: Arizona –1.04 RISKING: 2.08 units to win 2
WUNDERDOG
Baltimore at New England
Pick: New England -3
The New England Patriots once again find themselves playing in January, and once again playing host. Despite winning 11 games last season with a backup quarterback, they missed the playoffs. As a result you can bet they are pumped to be here and will be looking to make the most of it. And unlike the last time they were here, they have something to prove in 2009. They aren't getting the respect they have gotten in years past, as shown by this line and the lack of media attention. By some accounts, they don't deserve it as they posted what looks to be a good, but not great, season. They went 10-6 and never seemed to be among the league's elite as the attention went to Indy, New Orleans, San Diego and Minnesota. But, let's l ook a bit deeper. New England's six losses this season came to some pretty good teams, or teams playing very well. They lost to Denver early on when the Broncos were playing very good football and in the midst of their 6-0 run. They lost to an Indianapolis teamthat could have gone 16-0 this season if they so chose. They lost to a 13-3 New Orleans team as well and posted a fairly meaningless loss to Houston at the end of the year. They didn't have any really embarrasing losses on the year, and most importantly, they really took care of business at home. More on that in a minute. Some will point to the loss of Wes Welker as a problem here. As good Welker he is, this offense is more systematic than player-dependent. Julian Edelman, in less than a full game last week, came in to grab 10 passes for 103 yards. He also performed very well when we filled in for Welker earlier in the season. He's a dropoff, but not enough to make a huge difference. If this game were in Baltimore, I might like the Ravens. But it's in Foxboro and that is very important. At home this season New England was an absolute juggernaut. They went 8-0, outscoring opponents 31 to 13 in the process. That's a margin of 18 points per game. The last time they lost at home withTom Brady under center was 24 games ago, on November 12, 2006! Let's not forget who we are backing here. This team still has Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and Randy Moss playing at home. In years past, that would command a TD+ line but we lay only a field goal here against a team that was 3-5 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road this season! Baltimore was actually outscored by their opponents on the road in 2009. Why so much respect here? The Ravens are tough against the run, but are vulnerable to the type of air attack they will face here. The Ravens faced six top QBs this season in Phillip Rivers, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Big Ben. They lost five of the six games, including the last five straight. The Pats usually win the games they are supposed to. Over the past fifteen years, they are 23-5 ATS vs. teams at .500 to .600. They are also 22-10 ATS over that span at home vs. good defenses (those allowing 17 or fewer points per game). With "The Hoody" in charge, thisteam is 67-53 ATS as a favorite and 30-16 ATS when coming off a loss as they are here.I like the Pats to get it done and win and cover.
SportsInsights
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
This game is the most lopsided-bet game of the week. Almost 80% of the bets are taking the Green Bay Packers (both spread bets and teasers/parlays). This is a perfect example of Public money causing irrational line movement. Public money is pushing this line from its opener of Arizona -2.5 to a +1.5. Arizona is the home team -- and that is a huge move in the point spread. Historical results show that there is value in getting a home underdog in the playoffs.
In addition to "betting against the Public" and taking Arizona, SportsInsights had a "Smart Money" play on Arizona triggered by Carib Sports 36-18, +13.7 units. Arizona isn't getting much respect, even though they lost last year's Super Bowl by just four points! Take the under-valued Arizona Cardinals to be a live dog at home.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5
SPORTS ADVISORS
Baltimore (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at New England (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS)
The third-seeded Patriots return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus, playing host to the Ravens in a wild-card clash at Gillette Stadium.
New England was steady throughout the season, losing consecutive games only once – at Miami and at New Orleans – and putting together a late 3-0 SU surge (2-1 ATS) to clinch the AFC East title. In a meaningless regular-season finale at Houston last Sunday, the Pats led 27-13 early in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to rally, with New England ultimately falling 34-27 as a seven-point underdog.
The much bigger loss, though, was that of standout WR Wes Welker, who tore up his left knee and is out for the playoffs. Welker posted a league-best 123 receptions for 1,348 yards (second) despite essentially playing just 13 games.
Baltimore, which reached the AFC title game last year, was inconsistent much of this season. The Ravens got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then dropped three in a row (1-2 ATS) as part of a 3-6 SU and ATS nosedive that nearly knocked them out of playoff contention. Baltimore bounced back by winning three of its last four (2-1-1 ATS), including a 21-13 victory at Oakland laying 10 points Sunday in the regular-season finale – a must-win in order to punch its playoff ticket.
The Patriots are a superb 14-3 in the playoffs over the last decade, including three Super Bowl victories, and they fell just short of a fourth in their last postseason contest – the 17-14 loss to the Giants two years ago as an overwhelming 12-point favorite. New England missed the playoffs last year, despite going 11-5 SU and playing all but one quarter without Brady.
The Ravens rode the wild card to the AFC title game last year, beating Miami and Tennessee SU and ATS on the road before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point road pup. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last eight playoff roadies and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of three or less, but it also shoulders negative ATS streaks of 2-7 in January, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on the highway, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 0-3-1 against the AFC.
These teams just met in October, with New England hanging on for the 27-21 home win as a one-point chalk. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in that stretch.
The Patriots sport one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 397.3 ypg – trailing only New Orleans and Dallas, respectively – and 26.7 ppg (sixth). Not surprisingly, QB Tom Brady is the catalyst, as he returned after missing all of last season with a knee injury and threw for 4,398 yards (fifth) with 28 TDs and 13 INTs as he guided the NFL’s third-best passing attack (277.2 ypg). New England also rates among the top scoring defenses, allowing just 17.8 ppg (fifth) on 320.2 ypg (11th).
The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th), including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by RB Ray Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.
Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, ranking third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL.
The Pats have failed to cover in their last four playoff starts and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four January contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 21-7-1 following a SU loss, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home (all as a chalk).
The under is on a bundle of runs for New England, including 5-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 11-2-1 in home playoff contests and 6-0-1 with the Pats a chalk. Baltimore, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 4-0 in wild-card games, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-1-1 against AFC opponents. That said, the over is 8-3-2 in the Ravens’ last 13 outings as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
Green Bay (11-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-6, 9-7 ATS)
In the third playoff contest of the weekend featuring opponents that also met last week, the surging Packers return to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals.
Green Bay was 4-4 SU and ATS at the season’s midpoint, capped by a stunning 38-28 upset loss to previously winless Tampa Bay as a hefty 9½-point road favorite in its eighth game. However, the Packers bounced back big time, going a standout 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the second half, with the only setback coming in a wild, last-play-of-the-game 37-36 shootout loss at Pittsburgh as a 2½-point pup. Last week, despite having little to play for, the Pack played their starters much of the way and rolled to a 33-7 road win over the Cards as a three-point pup.
Arizona was content with getting the No. 4 seed as the NFC West champion, pulling QB Kurt Warner early in last Sunday’s blowout loss to Green Bay. The Cardinals got out of the gate 1-2 SU and ATS this season, then went on a 6-1 SU tear as part of a 9-3 overall SU run (8-4 ATS) to easily claim the division championship despite losing twice to NFC West foe San Francisco.
The Packers missed the playoffs last year, following a run to the NFC title game two years ago in Brett Favre’s final season with the franchise. That January, Green Bay drubbed Seattle 42-20 as a nine-point chalk in the divisional round and was a 7½-point home favorite in the NFC final against the Giants, but the Packers were upended 23-20 in overtime, and New York went on to upset New England in the Super Bowl.
Last season, the Cardinals made the playoffs for the first time since 1998 and rode the bid all the way to their first Super Bowl. Arizona topped Atlanta at home, Carolina on the road, then returned home for the AFC title game and beat Philadelphia 32-25 as 3½-point underdog. The ride ended in a riveting Super Bowl, though the Cards lost 27-23 to Pittsburgh as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason.
Green Bay is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven clashes with Arizona, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The Packers also played in Arizona in Week 3 of this preseason and jumped out to a 38-10 halftime lead with the starters on the field en route to a 44-37 win. The SU winner has cashed in five straight regular-season meetings in this rivalry and seven of the last eight.
The Packers piled up 379.1 ypg this season (sixth), including 261.2 ypg passing on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, hanging on to the ball – and forcing it out of opponents’ hands – was key all year for Green Bay, which led the NFL with a whopping plus-24 turnover margin, nine ahead of second-place Philadelphia. That helped Mike McCarthy’s troops average 28.8 ppg (third). About the only negative: Rodgers was sacked an eye-popping 50 times, tied with Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger for the most in the league. Still, most of those takedowns came early in the season, as Rodgers was sacked just five times in the last six games.
Green Bay also fielded the No. 2 total defense (284.4 ypg) and No. 1 rushing defense (83.3 ypg), while ranking seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). CB Charles Woodson tied for the league lead with nine INTs, and although he left last week’s game in Arizona with a shoulder injury, he will play today.
The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs.
The turnover bug also plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin, 24th in the league, making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th).
Green Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven postseason tilts and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five wild-card contests, but the Packers’ ATS streaks are all positive from there, including 33-16-2 overall, 5-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-0-1 against the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and a sturdy 20-7-1 on the highway. In addition, the Packers were the best team in the NFL at the betting window this year.
The Cards are on a handful of positive spread-covering upswings, including 6-1 in January, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 following a SU loss, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-1 coming off a double-digit home loss.
The over for Green Bay is on surges of 24-8 after a spread-cover, 22-9-1 within the NFC and 12-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home record, and the total has gone high in four of Arizona’s last five playoff starts. But the Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 versus the NFC and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, last week’s blowout fell just short of the 42-point total, giving the under a 3-2 mark in the last five meetings between these clubs going back to 2000.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(18) Temple (12-3, 10-5 ATS) at Rhode Island (12-1, 6-4 ATS)
The Owls will try to snap Rhode Island’s eight-game winning streak when they visit the Ryan Center in Kingston, R.I., for this Atlantic-10 Conference matchup.
Temple was riding a seven-game winning streak to close out 2009 then welcomed Kansas to Philadephia and lost to the top-ranked Jayhawks 84-52 as a seven-point ‘dog on Jan. 2. The Owls rebounded from that loss and won their conference opener on Wednesday, blowing out St. Joseph’s, 73-46, easily covering as 14 ½-point favorites. Defense is the Owls’ specialty as they allow just 55.7 points a game and 37.3 percent shooting.
Rhode Island hasn’t lost since a Dec. 2 trip to VCU when it fell 82-80 as a 2 ½-point pup. The Rams went to Akron on Tuesday and scored a 68-63 upset as one-point ‘dogs, but they have yet to play a conference game. They know how to light up the scoreboard, averaging 84 points a game at home and shooting it at a 48.6 percent clip.
These teams split their two matchups last season with the home team getting the win and cover in each. Rhode Island scored a 67-59 home win as a three-point chalk on Jan. 28 and 10 days later Temple returned the favor with a 68-62 home win as a five-point chalk. These rivals have alternated wins and covers in each of the last six meetings and the straight-up winner is a perfect 10-0 ATS dating back to the 2004 campaign.
Temple is on several ATS runs, including 45-22-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 19-6-1 in A-10 matchups, 8-1 on Sundays and 21-10 after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Rhode Island is on ATS skids of 8-17-1 in conference play, 1-8 at home, 2-5 after a spread-cover and 0-5 at home against teams with winning road marks.
It’s been all “unders” lately for the Owls, including 33-16-2 overall, 6-2-1 on the road, 10-2 in conference action and 18-7-2 after a spread-cover. The Rams have stayed below the posted number in six of seven in Atlantic-10 play but topped the total in 35 of 51 home games and four of five after a spread-cover. However, the “over” has been the play in five of the last eight in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEMPLE
(1) Kansas (14-0, 6-5 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (11-2, 5-4-1 ATS)
The top-ranked Jayhawks put their season-long 14-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Thompson Boling Center in Knoxville, Tenn., to take on the Volunteers.
Kansas got tested on Wednesday when tiny Cornell went into Fog Allen Fieldhouse and battled the Jayhawks to the wire before finally falling 71-66, easily cashing as a 20 ½-point underdog to the top team in the land. Kansas turns up the heat on defense when it takes to the road, allowing just 56.5 points a game and limiting the home team to just 30.4 percent shooting.
Tennessee has won three straight (2-0 ATS) and seven of eight (3-3 ATS) overall, having blown out Charlotte on Wednesday, 88-71 as a 13 ½-point favorite. The Vols, who had all five starters reach double-digits in scoring on Wednesday, are scoring 90.7 points per game in front of the home faithful and shooting 51.7 percent from the floor.
These two teams squared off a year ago with Kansas edging the Vols 92-85 as a three-point home favorite. The Jayhawks held Tennessee to 26-of-66 shooting while they topped 50-percent shooting at 34-of-66.
Kansas is on a plethora of ATS runs, including 35-16-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 7-0 after a non-cover, and 8-2 on the road against a team with a winning home record. The Vols are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Sunday games and 1-5 ATS in their last six against Big 12 opponents.
For the Jayhawks, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-2 on Sundays, 4-1 in non-conference action and 20-6 after a straight-up win. Tennessee is also on several “under” runs, including 6-2 overall, 23-9 after a spread-cover, 4-0 on Sundays and 12-4 following a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS
Virginia Tech (12-1, 4-4 ATS) at (9) North Carolina (11-4, 5-8 ATS)
The Hokies bring a nine-game winning streak into their ACC opener against North Carolina at the Dean Smith Center in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Virginia Tech’s winning streak (4-1 ATS) becomes less impressive whey you see four of its last six have been against cupcakes in unlined contests. However, the Hokies beat Seton Hall on a neutral court on Jan. 2, winning 103-94 in OT as four-point underdogs. With their easy schedule, it’s no wonder the Hokies are averaging 79.6 points a game and shooting 50 percent from the floor in their last five contests.
North Carolina had a three-game winning streak (1-2 ATS) snapped on Monday with an 82-79 upset loss at Charlotte as 13 ½-point favorites. The Tar Heels have failed to cash in each of their last three, but the 13 ½-point line was the smallest of the three. They can light up the scoreboard in front of the home fans, averaging 89.6 points a game and shooting 52.8 percent on the home court.
The Tar Heels have won four straight (1-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine (3-6 ATS) against the Hokies, including a close 79-76 home win last season, coming up short as 11 ½-point favorites. Virginia Tech, an underdog in each meeting, has gotten the cash in five of the last six series clashes.
The Hokies are on ATS streaks of 15-7 after a spread-cover and 4-0 overall. North Carolina is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight Sunday games and 5-16 ATS in its last 21 ACC games, but the Tar Heels are on ATS runs of 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss and 20-7 at home against teams with winning road records.
For Virginia Tech, the “over” is on runs of 36-16-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 24-8-1 after a straight-up win and 3-0 after a spread-cover. North Carolina has stayed below the total in four of five Sunday tipoffs, but topped the total in 10 of 14 conference games and 35 of 52 after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Vernon Croy
Green Bay vs. Arizona
Play: Over 47
This pick falls into one of my top NFL systems and both of these teams are capable of putting up big numbers in a hurry. The Packers are averaging 39 points per game over their last 3 games while the Cardinals are averaging 23.4 ppg overall this season. The Cardinals handed the Packers the game last week but things will be a lot different this week since this is a meaningful game. The Cardinals have averaged 30+ points in each of their last 3 games that they won and the O/U is 18-5 for the Cardinals in their last 23 games when they score less then 15 points in their previous game. The O/U is 7-2 for the Cardinals in their last 9 games after they allow more than 30 points in their previous game and the O/U is 24-8 for the Packers in their last 32 games after covering the number in their previous game. I look for both teams to light up the scoreboard Sunday so take the Over as your Free NFL Playoff Play.
Marc Lawrence
Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Cleveland appears to be developing cohesion with Shaqs presence in the lineup but everything wont be coming up roses tonight in Portland as LeBron and company find themselves in the midst of a 5-game West Coast swing which started in Denver. The Cavs have taken a Mile High fall on the road after their visits to the Pepsi Center, posting a pathetic 2-12 SU and 5-9 ATS mark including 0-4 SU and ATS versus an opponent seeking revenge. With the Blazers 8-4 ATS at home in the series and the visitors just 8-24 SU and 12-20 ATS away on Sundays versus .500 or greater opposition, we?ll look for the hosts to avenge a 104-99 defeat they suffered at Cleveland in mid-December.
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Green Bay @ Arizona
PICK: Under 47.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting decent value on the "under" in this situation:
The Packers, seeded fifth in the six-team NFC bracket, enter the playoffs on a roll, winners of seven of their last eight games to finish 11-5.
Last week Green Bay limited the Cardinals had a grand total of 48 yards, the fewest allowed by the league's No. 1 run defense. Their lone explosive run was 17 yards by Beanie Wells late in the game.
While that was mostly due to Arizona having benches most of its starters, its interesting to point out that the total has in fact gone "under" the posted number in four of Green Bay's last six overall and in four of its last six on the road.
On the other side of the field: Anquan Boldin suffered a sprained left ankle in the third quarter; Boldin was sore Monday morning and was scheduled to undergo an MRI.
Right defensive end Calais Campbell suffered a fractured left thumb, but is expected to play. He likely will wear a cast, which will limit his ability to grab offensive linemen.
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie suffered a contusion on his left kneecap on the third play of the game. He reported improvement on Monday and is expected to play Sunday.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in six of Arizona's last seven overall and in six of its last eight at home.
Bottom line: It's also interesting to note that the last five times these teams have played against each other, regardless of location, the total has gone "under" the number as well.
I think when you take into account all of these strong "under" trends that each of these teams has exhibited all season long, and these other factors, that the "under" is the prudent wager in this situation.
ALEX SMART
Baltimore Ravens @ New England
PICK: Baltimore Ravens +3.5
When you're talking Ravens football, you're talking about a hard-nosed bunch that can make life a living nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Baltimore ranked #3 in the league in total defense in '09 (300.5 yards per game) and finished the regular season in the Top-10 in every major category. Offensively, look no further than RB Ray Rice to find the heart of the unit. He ran for 1,339 yards and received for another 702, reaching the end zone a total of eight times. RB Willis McGahee is his right-hand man, rushing for 544 yards and 12 TDs in a limited role on the season.
New England's offense is going to look a heck of a lot different without the services of WR Wes Welker. Welker, who finished the year with the second most catches in a season in the history of the NFL (123), will be out for the duration of the season after suffering a brutal looking knee injury against Houston.
In Week 4, the Pats handed Baltimore its first loss of the season 27-21. On that day, Brady completed 21 of his 32 passes for 258 yards and a TD. However, without Welker in the lineup (who caught six passes for 48 yards in the victory), things are going to be a heck of a lot more difficult for the New England offense. Rice poked holes in the Patriots' defense all day, rushing for 103 yards on 11 carries and picking up another 49 yards through the air. Baltimore has everything it takes to win this game outright, as it came within a few yards of beating New England in Foxboro earlier this year. Though it registered 10 wins, New England just doesn’t look to be its dominant self. Gone are the days of laying DD’s with Brady in the post-season; just take a look at this line. The window of opportunities slowly been closing on the Pats; look for the Ravens to slam it shut today!
Joseph D'Amico
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Green Bay Packers +1
With the Playoff's in hand, Arizona didn't put forth that much of an effort LW against Green Bay. However, they did suffer some huge injuries. Here is a list; WR Morey ? Concussion, TE Patrick ? Concussion, FB Rolle ? Thight, FB Kreider ? Neck, CB Rodgers-Cromartie ? Knee, WR Boldin ? Ankle, and DE Campbell ? Thumb. Most of these players will play but won't be 100%. The big question in this matchup is the difference in the post-season experience between Kurt Warner and the Card's amd Aron Rodgers and the Pack. Green Bay won and covered 3 straight over Arizona. The Packer's also ended the season with 6 straight covers. Arizona looked mediocre at times during the season. They also have a big weakness in their pass defense. QB Aron Rodgers will throw at will and exploit the wekaness. RB Ryan Grant will keep the Card's "D" honest. A huge contrast between these two teams is turnovers. Green Bay leads the league with a +24 turnover margin. This time of year, it comes down to mistakes.The Packer's are 5-0-1 ATS their L6 vs. the NFC, 20-7-1 ATS their L28 games played on the road, and 7-3 ATS their L10 games played vs. teams with a winning record. The Cardinal's are 1-4 ATS their L5 games played as a favorite. Green Bay covers.
EZWINNERS
New England Patriots -3.5
The Patriots are not the team that they used to be, but they are still a very good at home. The Baltimore defense is also not the dominate unit that they used to be. They are still a good defense, but I expect the Patriots and Tom Brady to have success against them. I really don't expect the loss of New England wide receiver Wes Welker to be as big a factor as some my believe, at least not in this home game. Julian Edelman is a very capable replacement, so don't expect to see a huge drop off. Tom Brady has found his rhythm and I expect New England to take care of business. Baltimore is 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four trips to New England. Lay the points.
BIG AL
New Jersey Nets at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
In its last game, San Antone lost to Dallas, after holding a double-digit lead heading into the game's final 12 minutes. Off that disheartening defeat, the Spurs look to rebound tonight, and I think they'll get a blowout victory. San Antonio has struggled this season vs. the better teams, but has only lost twice to losing teams (Chicago and Toronto), and both of those defeats came in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. However, the Spurs are rested tonight, and the Nets have been a "get well" team for the entire NBA, as they're just 3-33 on the season. San Antonio has won 13 straight vs. New Jersey, with its last loss coming in November 2002. Lay the points.
Rob Vinciletti
E. Washington vs. Montana State
Play: Montana State -12
Today Montana State looks to be a nice play here today as they have solid offensive and defensive edges on Eastern Washington. When Montana St. has been favored this year they have won and covered 5 of 6 times, including every single time vs losing teams. They are an excellent home team at 6-1 with an average 76-60 win score. E. Washington is just the opposite. They are 1-9 on the road and lose by an average 18 points per game. When the total is 140 to 150 E.Washington is just 1-11 and 3-9 ats. Look for a solid home win for Montana State.