Scott Delaney
Temple +2 at Rhode Island
I'm going to play the road pup in this one, as I see the Owls as the better team here - despite both having similar records, the Rams actually having a better one overall.
I know Rhode Island is coming in on an eight-game winning streak, but I love the way Temple responded to a blowout loss to top-ranked Kansas on Jan. 2, by scorching St. Joe's, 73-46, this past Wednesday in the conference opener.
The Rams can be an explosive bunch, but they haven't played a conference game yet, and the Atlantic 10 is a much different animal than the MAC, the last conference Rhode Island faced, this past Tuesday, when it upset Akron.
Temple has been playing tenacious defense this season, allowing just 55.7 points per game on 33.7 percent shooting, and you can bet the Owls will be suffocating the Rams in this matchup.
The Owls roll in on ATS runs of 5-1 on the highway, 20-6 in Atlantic 10 play and 8-1 on Sundays. On the flipside, the Rams are mired in ATS slides of 1-8 at home and 0-5 when hosting teams that win on the road.
2♦ TEMPLE OWLS
Tony Weston
I came through yesterday as the Jets and Bengals go Over the Total, just like I said.
I’m handing you another Total winner as I’m taking the Under on the Packers-Cardinals game.
The number for this game is hovering around 47 1/2 points, depending on where you’re playing. But it won’t matter because these two will fall short of that.
Coming into this game the Cardinals have stayed Under the Total in 2 straight games and 6 of their last 7. In that stretch they’ve totaled, on average, 41 points per game. In that stretch Arizona has stayed Under the Total in each of its last 3 home games as the team has totaled, on average, 42.6 points per game.
The Packers come into this game having seen the Under come in 4 of their last 6 games, including 3 of their last 4 on the road.
These two are staying Under the Total again, just like they did to close out the regular season.
3♦ PACKERS-CARDINALS UNDER
Stephen Nover
Miami at L.A. CLIPPERS -1'
Don't laugh, but the Los Angeles Clippers are playing their best ball winning and covering their past three games all at home. The Clippers have defeated the 76ers, Trail Blazers and Lakers during this hot streak.
Now the Clippers draw traveling Miami in a huge flat spot.
The Heat just got through upsetting Phoenix on Friday, its biggest road win in six weeks. Up next for the Heat following the Clippers matchup is a game at Utah.
So it's going to be easy for the Heat to overlook the Clippers this being its second of six straight road games. Miami is 3-7 against the spread versus teams with a losing record.
The Clippers are healthy with the exception of rookie Blake Griffin, who hasn't played all season. The Clippers are underrated defensively ranking 12th in defensive field goal percentage. Marcus Camby and Eric Gordon are excellent defenders.
The Clippers also have been idle since Wednesday with their confidence brimming after a highly-satisfying victory over the Lakers.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Bobby Maxwell
Kansas at TENNESSEE +7
Improved to 46-19 with FREE selections and 23-5 in the last 28 days after UNLV pulled off the outright upset in New Mexico on Saturday. Today I'm right back on the college hardwood with a winner on Tennessee as the Vols host Kansas.
The Jayhawks got a big scare on Wednesday when Cornell went to Kansas and almost pulled off one of the bigger upsets in recent memory in college hoops. The Jayhawks pulled it out late, winning 71-66 but coming nowhere near the 20 ½-point line.
I like Tennessee in this matchup because the Vols can light up a scoreboard at home, and they will need to if they are going to hang with the Jayhawks. Tennessee averages 90.7 points a game at home and shoots 51.7 percent from the floor.
These two teams played a thriller in Kansas a year ago with the Jayhawks edging the Vols 92-85 in one of the better regular season games of the year. So Tennessee is familiar with the speed of the game and the size of the Jayhawks. They won’t be surprised by anything Kansas brings.
The Vols will have a full house tonight waiting to see them pull off the upset of the nation’s top-ranked team. It will be rocking and loud. Grab the points and play Tennessee at home.
2♦ TENNESSEE
Dominic Fazzini
Kansas -6 at TENNESSEE
I told you the wrong team was favored in Saturday's West Virginia-Notre Dame game, as the underdog Irish prevailed at home. That victory pushed my record to 55-35-1 over the past 91 days with my complimentary selections, including a 38-22-1 run over the last 61!
I've got another college hoops winner lined up for today, rolling with top-ranked Kansas to win big on the road against Tennessee.
The Volunteers are going to take the court today without four key players, including senior forward Tyler Smith, who was dismissed from the team after he was arrested on misdemeanor gun and drug charges along with center Brian Williams and guards Cameron Tatum and Melvin Goins, who all remain suspended indefinitely.
Those four players have been averaging a combined 32.2 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.8 assists for Tennessee, and Smith was a two-time all-SEC selection who was averaging 11.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists this season.
That lack of depth is going to hurt the Volunteers greatly against Kansas, which probably comes into today's game with a renewed focus after surviving a scare in a 71-66 home win over Cornell.
Sherron Collins had a career-high 33 points in that game for the Jayhawks, who are averaging 86.3 ppg and have four players scoring in double figures.
Kansas is 35-16-1 ATS in its last 52 games overall, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 road games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite. Take the Jayhawks to beat the shorthanded Volunteers by at least 10 points today.
4♦ KANSAS
Karl Garrett
Florida State +4' at MARYLAND
Sunday ACC battle, and I will take the points with the Seminoles as they visit a Maryland team whose last home game was a shocking 83-77 loss to William and Mary, in a game the Terps were favored by double-digits in.
Florida State comes into College Park having covered 7 of their last 9 as a conference road dog, including their December 20th overtime outright at Georgia Tech.
The Sems play some stiff defense, and that could rattle this Maryland team that likes to shoot them up from the perimeter.
Maryland has gone just 1-3 against the spread in their 4 lined home games this season, and they have their work cut out for them if they wish to increase that number to 2-4.
G-Man doesn't see that happening.
Grab the visitors plus the points in this one.
1♦ FLORIDA STATE
Brett Atkins
Just nailed a free winner on the college hardwood Saturday as UNLV not only covered the number but got the outright upset in New Mexico. Today's comp winner is on Tennessee as the Vols are catching way too many points at home against Kansas.
This is going to be a wild scene in Tennessee as the Vols have been looking at this game all season. They played a great game last season at Kansas and thought they should have won that one, now they get a shot at revenge at home.
Kansas was barely able to get by Cornell at home on Wednesday, getting a 71-66 win but failing as a 20 1/2-point favorite.
Tennessee can score at home, as they average 90.7 points a game. Kansas prides itself in its defense, but it will be tested today. I like the Vols to get inside the number as this place is going to be rowdy and loud today.
Grab the points and play Tennessee.
3♦ TENNESSEE
Jay McNeil
I completed a perfect day on my NFL plays Sunday, giving you the Cowboys with my free play. That improved my record to 12-6 over the last 18 days, and I'm coming right back with another winner today, this time coming from the NBA.
The Clippers have won three straight games overall and five straight at home, and defense is a large reason why. Los Angeles has allowed just 92 ppg over that five-game stretch, and it held the rival Lakers to 38 percent shooting Wednesday in a 102-91 victory.
Guard Baron Davis is averaging 19.2 points and 10 assists over the Clippers' last five games, and center Chris Kaman is averaging 23.3 points and 10.5 rebounds over his last 10 games.
Miami has lost six of its last eight road games against Los Angeles, and the home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the teams.
Los Angeles has won three straight games by double digits, and it is on ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 4-0-1 as a favorite and 4-0-1 as a home favorite. Take the Clippers to cover the points today.
2♦ L.A. CLIPPERS
Charley Sutton
The Jets and Bengals go Over the Total, just like I said they would and they deliver a strong Comp Play winner.
I’m handing you another one today as I’m taking the Under in the Ravens-Patriots matchup.
The Total for this game is hovering around 43 points, depending on where you’re playing this, and it may seem a little low, but it’s not.
Consider that coming into this game the Patriots have seen the Under go 10-5-1 this season and have stayed Under the Total in 5 of their last 6 games. At home, New England has seen the Under go 3-0-1 its last 4 games, including each of its last two in Foxboro.
The Ravens have seen the Under go 9-6-1 this season and have seen it go 7-2-1 their last 10 games and have seen it go 4-0-1 their last 5 games on the road.
These two will keep scoring at a premium and stay Under the Total again.
3 ♦ RAVENS-PATRIOTS UNDER
Joel Tyson
In your AFC Wild Card game on Sunday, I am taking the UNDER between Baltimore and New England.
Weather-wise, this game looks to be contested in about as good of conditions as you can expect for this time of year in New England, as we are looking at a sunny day with temperatures around 25 degrees, and the wind not much of a factor.
I just think that the cold weather is going to benefit the defenses in this showdown, and points will be at a premium.
Baltimore will try to establish the run, with Rice and McGahee , while New England does have the option of handing it off to Taylor, Maroney, Morris, or Faulk depending upon the field position the Pats find themselves in. Running the ball as we all know keeps the clock moving, thus leaving less time to put points on the board.
New England is on a 5-1-1 UNDER run their last 7 games, and a 6-2-1 run LOW their last 9 playoff games. Finally, the Patriots have gone 11-2-1 UNDER the total their last 14 home postseason games.
This one stays LOW as well.
2♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Cardinals at home over the Packers in Sunday’s late wild-card game.
This comes down to a couple of fundament questions: Who do you trust more, Kurt Warner at home or Aaron Rodgers on the road? I’ll take Warner, the guy who’s played in three Super Bowls and knows how to win close games, over Rodgers, who is a playoff newbie, who has won just three games by six points or less, and who has just ONE fourth-quarter come-from-behind win in his two-year career (and that win was gift-wrapped by Jay Cutler in Week 1 of this season)
Which coach do you trust more, Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt or Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy? I’ll take Whisenhunt (who guided the Cardinals to the Super Bowl last year in his first playoff appearance as a head man) over McCarthy (whose first postseason appearance ended with an overtime loss to the Giants as an eight-point home favorite in the NFC title game two years ago).
Who would you rather put your money on, the Cardinals at home (where just three weeks ago they manhandled Brett Favre and the Vikings, the same Brett Favre and the Vikings who crushed Green Bay twice this season) or the Packers on the road (Green Bay doesn’t have a single quality road victory this year, beating up on the Rams, Browns, Lions and Bears before last week’s totally meaningless win over the Cardinals while losing at Minnesota and at Pittsburgh, as well as at then-winless Tampa Bay).
Look, people, I know the betting public is infatuated with the Packers in this game, but the Cardinals aren’t chumps. They came within 90 seconds of winning the Super Bowl last year and finished with a 4-0 ATS mark in the playoffs (going 2-0 SU and ATS at home). Their defense is better this year than last, and they have ALL the postseason experience (particularly at the all-important QB position).
5♦ ARIZONA CARDINAS
LT Profits
Green Bay Packers vs Arizona Cardinals
Last season, the Arizona Cardinal surprised many by winning the NFC Championship, but this season, look for their Super Bowl quest to end after just one game, thanks to the red-hot Green Bay Packers.
The Packers were the hottest team in the NFC down the stretch, as they went 7-1 straight up in the second half of the season with the only loss being by one point to the Pittsburgh Steelers on a flukish play to end the game.
While Aaron Rodgers has gotten most of the credit, and he has certainly had a great season, do not overlook the spark that Ryan Grant has given the running game in the second half, and Grant may very well be the deciding factor in this game. This because Arizona has allowed at least 100 rushing yards in eight of their last 11, and a if Grant is as successful as we expect, it will slow down an Arizona pass rush that recorded 43 sacks this season.
Also overlooked often is a Green Bay defense that allowed only 18.6 points and 284.4 yards per game this season. Like the Packers, the Arizona passing game clicks better when they have the threat of a running game, and while Beanie Wells had a strong second half, we do not expect him to do much here vs. a Packers run defense that allowed only 83.3 rushing yards per game on a measly 3.6 yards per carry.
This should turn Arizona into a one-dimensional passing offense, and while they certainly have the weapons to win that way in Warner and the best receiving corps in football, good NFL defenses can adjust to lopsided offensive styles.
Look for Green Bay to do just that as they advance to next week.
Note: We actually played the Packers as Money Line underdogs earlier this week, but we would still recommend them as long as they are less than -3. In other words, Packer backers should act quickly!
Pick: Packers -1.5
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / SAN ANTONIO SPURS
TAKE: SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Games still have to be played, even when you do know who is going to win. Not much hope here tonight for the Nets. They have won just three games on the season and covered just 12 of 35 games. Their road ATS is just 6-13 and they have the worst power rating among all the NBA clubs. Still, the game must be played so the oddsmakers toss up a 14 or 15 or even higher line on the Spurs in hopes of getting some equal action on this contest. The Spurs (21-13 SU, 18-15 ATS) should be looking to take out some frustration on the Nets today after losing at home to the Mavericks on Friday, 112-103. The Spurs haven't lost much lately as Friday's setback was just their second in the last eight games and third in the last 12. And, if you think the line will help the Nets today, think again. Not only are the Spurs 12-3 ATS the last 15 meetings with New Jersey, but they are 7-0 the last seven at home when they have been 10 point favorites or more. The only glitch in today's massacre could be that the Lakers are up next for the Spurs. But with one day off to rest, we look for the Spurs to get little resistance from New Jersey today. We don't often advocated laying over 14 points in a game, but some times you just have to do it!!
Nelly's Greensheet
NEW ENGLAND (-4) Baltimore (43)
The Patriots beat the Ravens early in the season in a very close
game in Foxboro. At the time the Ravens were 3-0 and it appeared
to be a battle for AFC supremacy but neither team ended up as
strong as those early expectations suggested. The Patriots lost five
games this season although last week’s loss could be forgiven.
Some starters did play deep into the game but the urgency was not
nearly as severe for New England and the Patriots still led until a
late flurry from Houston. New England’s losses all came against
quality opponents that were in the playoff race and all five losses
came on the road as New England went 8-0 at home along with
Minnesota as the only teams to go undefeated at home. The Ravens
and Jets were the only playoff teams that New England defeated but
the overall schedule rated as one of the toughest in the league.
Baltimore beat San Diego early in the season but the Ravens have
not done much against quality teams since. Baltimore only lost to
playoff teams and Pittsburgh but this is also a team that failed in
several big games and struggled to beat Oakland with a playoff spot
on the line last week. This will be the third straight week on the road
for the Ravens playing the final two regular season games on the
road including west coast travel last week, making this a very tough
situation. Baltimore made its way to the AFC championship last
season but this year the defense does not appear nearly as strong
even if the statistics were solid. The Ravens were a strong rushing
team and also had a few big games in the air but winning in New
England in the playoffs will be a very tough task. The injury to Wes
Welker certainly stings for the Patriots on offense but the maligned
New England defense was very tough at home, allowing less than
ten points per game in the last five home contests. There are more
question marks for New England this season than in most years but
this is still the team to beat in the AFC. PATRIOTS BY 10
RATING 3: NEW ENGLAND (-4) over Baltimore
ARIZONA (-2½) Green Bay (48)
This is another rematch as the 11-5 Packers will play on the road
against the 10-6 Cardinals that they defeated easily last week.
Arizona had two different game plans based on whether or not
Minnesota won last week and rendered their game meaningless and
the Packers took advantage of the marginal effort with a dominant
victory. The Packers are a team with a considerable buzz right now
having won seven of the final eight games but the Green Bay
schedule rated as the weakest in the entire league. The Packers
have a couple of nice wins over Dallas and Baltimore but those
games came at home and the only three wins against full strength
teams on the road came against three of the worst teams in the
NFL, St. Louis, Cleveland, and Detroit. The Cardinals have had
some inconsistency this season with a few big wins and a few bad
losses but when motivated the Cardinals have been very
impressive, including crushing a Minnesota team that dominated the
Packers twice a few weeks ago. Arizona lost four home games this
season but won twice in the playoffs last season at home. This will
be a difficult spot for the Packers making trips out west to Arizona in
back-to-back weeks. Statistically the Packers finished as the top
rushing defense in the NFL, but the schedule certainly played a role.
Those numbers might not matter against an Arizona team that is
more than comfortable with a pass-heavy offense and features
incredible talent in the receiving corps, going up against a banged
up secondary. The Green Bay defense has shown some life on the
ground in recent weeks but Arizona can be very stout against the
run as well and the Packers have struggled in games when they
have fallen behind and been forced to pass. The Packers had very
few comeback wins this season yet were the victims of comebacks
twice in the final nine games. QB Aaron Rodgers is getting a lot
press as an MVP candidate and he has had a great statistical year
but this will be his first playoff game ever. Green Bay has been
incredibly fortunate with turnovers this season and if they can keep
up those numbers they have a chance to win but if the Cardinals can
protect Kurt Warner, Arizona should bounce back and deliver a win
in this game. Arizona’s defense has been very tough at home and
Rodgers could be left scrambling. CARDINALS BY 7
RATING 2: ARIZONA (-2½) over Green Bay
NFL OVER/UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
NFL: ‘UNDER’ Baltimore at New England
While neither of these teams has the defense that they became known for in successful recent seasons, the late season numbers have been impressive. Only one of the last seven New England games has played ‘over’ and in the past five home games the Patriots have allowed an average of 9.6 points per game. Baltimore played in several high scoring games early in the year but since getting torched at Green Bay in a Monday night game, the Ravens have allowed just 11.5 points per game in the final four contests. The once prolific passing attack for Baltimore has turned to a much greater proportion of rushes and the Patriots are also putting the ball in the hands of running backs more often. The injury to Wes Welker will also have a negative impact on the offensive production for the Patriots. Ten of the last eleven playoff home games in Foxboro have played ‘under’ going back to the Super Bowl run in 1997 and weather is always going to be a limiting factor in the northeast in January. Look for more low numbers as both defenses are still capable of a great performance and neither offense is clicking on all cylinders. The Patriots allowed 34 points last week but 21 points came in the final ten minutes after the starters were out in a game that really meant little for the playoff picture on the Pats side. There were also two defensive touchdowns in last week’s New England game which helps push this total higher.
PLAYBOOK
NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore by 3
It’s been over three months since these two crossed paths in a 27-
21 Patriots’ win at Gillette Stadium and the New England ‘dynasty’
appears to be winding down: distracted QB Tom Brady is married
to a supermodel, head coach Bill Belichick is making decisions that
appear to be driven by dementia rather than genius, key players have
defected or retired – and no matter how hard the Patriots insist that
they’re every bit as hungry as the Ravens, we just don’t buy it. At first
glance, our database tends to support the New Englanders. The Pats
have dominated this series, winning all six meetings outright while going
4-1-1 ATS. Even more persuasive is the fact that playoff road teams
off a road game are just 22-37-3 ATS. Even so, our feeling here is the
Ravens are the one team nobody in the AFC wants to tackle right now.
The Black Birds are an okay 7-4 SU and ATS in postseason play this
decade but they’re far more competitive under fiery leader John
Harbaugh. The second-year coach has compiled a solid 22-13 SU
and 22-12-1 ATS record during his tenure. The clincher comes when
his Ravens face a team off a loss: Harbaugh is a stunning 13-1 SU
and 12-2 ATS in that role, including 9-0 ATS when his team is off a win.
The bellicose Belichick may be 14-5 SU in his playoff career but he’s
only 9-9-1 versus the number. With the loss of WR Wes Welker and
Brady creaking with multiple lingering injuries, we can’t envision the
Pats going far this season. Take the points in this brutal war of attrition.
ARIZONA over Green Bay by 3
Even if we throw out last week’s 33-7 Green Bay rout of the
Cardinals (QB Kurt Warner and numerous Arizona starters sat
out most of the game), the Packers own all the better numbers
in this contest. The Cards defied history by becoming only the second
defending Super Bowl loser to make it back to the playoffs since 2001
but SB-losing teams are a money-burning 10-18-2 ATS in playoff games
the next season, including 6-13-2 ATS versus a foe off a win. Even
worse for the desert dwellers is the fact that playoff favorites are only
10-23-1 ATS versus an opponent with a better record. Green Bay closed
the regular season with an impressive 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS run (lone
defeat was a 1-point loss at Pittsburgh) while the Cardinals struggled
to a 3-3 SU finish against relatively mediocre opposition – though they
did thrash Minnesota, 30-17. Fourth-year Packers head coach Mike
McCarthy chips in with a stout 12-5 SU and 14-3 ATS mark on the
road against foes seeking revenge. He also returns to Glendale with a
squad that owns the better offense, the better defense AND the better
running game. Whew! It’s almost impossible to fade a team like this
but the skewed results of last Sunday’s meeting and right-back revenge
for Arizona tempers our enthuSIAsm. The bottom line? If you like stats,
you like the Pack; if you like situations, then the Cardinals are your
bird of choice. Hmmm… we’ll examine this more closely on game day
after we see which way the line settles. Pass for now