LOGICAL APPROACH
Baltimore Ravens (9-7 S/U, 8-7-1 ATS) at New England Patriots (10-6 s/u, 9-7 ATS)
The big news surrounding this contest is that New England's leading receiver, Wes Welker, has been lost for the Playoffs after sustaining an MCL injury in last week's game at Houston. QB Tom Brady is also banged up and reportedly has been playing with broken ribs the past few weeks in addition to a busted finger. New England won the regular season meeting at home over Baltimore 27-21 despite being outgained and arguably outplayed by the Ravens. The Patriots seemingly have been in decline since their quest of 19-0 ended in the final minute of Super Bowl XLII two years ago. The 11-5 team of last season that missed the Playoffs was a stronger team defensively than this season's 10-6 squad. Much veteran leadership is gone from the defense. Even the Brady-led offense struggled at times. Still, these are the Playoffs and no franchise has had more Playoff success over the past decade than New England. Baltimore has had Playoff success as well, even winning the Super Bowl a year before New England began their run. And the Ravens are in the Playoffs for a third time in 4 seasons and sixth time in 10. Despite the flaws in the Patriots' defense New England still ranked fifth in fewest points allowed. Baltimore was even better, ranking #3. The loss of Welker should result in even more coverage by the Ravens on Randy Moss and compel the Patriots to rely even more on their running game. New England was relatively untested this season, facing just two teams that were 10-6 or better. They lost both games, to Indianapolis and New Orleans. Baltimore faced 7 such teams but one just once, at San Diego back in week two. Baltimore has been significantly more reliant on running the ball than passing the ball over the second half of the season. Over the first half of the season the Ravens ran for 116 ypg while passing for 242 ypg. In games 9 through 16 those numbers were 160 and 184. While turnovers and special teams can always factor into the scoring, the fundamentals suggest this should be a low scoring contest. Despite New England's flaws and the injuries noted above, the Patriots must be given the respect they deserve based on past achievements. Though an upset is not out of the question it must be noted that the Pats were 8-0 at home this season. Brady is an excellent decision maker and has already been playing through injury. And coach Belichick's Playoff record is 15-4. The call is for New England to win 23-14, making
NEW ENGLAND a 2 Star Selection
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .
Green Bay Packers (11-5 S/U, 11-4-1 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (10-6 S/U, 9-7 ATS)
Green Bay totally outplayed disinterested Arizona last week to cap off a strong season that was statistically better than many experts realize. Although they've had to settle for a Wild Card Green Bay was second to New Orleans in points differential (+ 164), falling short of the Saints by a mere 5 points. They were #6 in total offense,#3 in points scored, #2 in total defense and #7 in points allowed. Green Bay was the only team in the league to rank so highly in all four categories. QB Aaron Rodgers emerged as a more than capable successor to Brett Favre and without the fuss and fanfare that marked the 2008 season Rodgers had an All Pro season. Arizona peaked at this time last season following a rather average regular season. They won three straight Playoff games and came within a minute or so of winning the Super Bowl. Green Bay has the better balanced offense and actually had a stronger passing offense than the Arizona offense directed by QB Kurt Warner. The Pack also led the league by losing just 16 turnovers all season and had a +24 margin for the season! Arizona WR Anquan Boldin is banged up which places more of a burden on WR Larry Fitzgerald which could provide an added edge to Green Bay. The Packers' defense is well balanced, #1 against the run, #5 against the pass. Arizona's offense is poorly balanced, rushing for just 93 ypg (# 29) while passing for 251 ypg. For the season the Cardinals were actually outgained in total yardage. Green Bay has a better record and played in a better Division (NFC North teams were a combined 32-32; NFC West teams were a woeful 24-40). Green Bay's 5-3 road record was better than Arizona's 4-4 mark at home. Even if you ignore the impressive effort last week and handicap this game based on each team's first 15 games the fundamentals and edges are with the Packers even if the line is a point or two lower as a result of last week. Green Bay wins 28-24, making
GREEN BAY a 3 Star Selection
OVER a 2 Star Selection .
Northcoast Powerplays
Baltimore traveled to Gillette Stadium in Wk4 as NE (-1) won 27-21. BAL was driving on its fi nal poss but a perfect 4th down pass was dropped which would have given the Ravens a 1st and goal. The Patriots are now 5-0 SU vs BAL. The Ravens travel for a second straight week and are 3-5 SU and 3-4-1 ATS away getting outgained by an avg of 339-336 and outscored by a avg of 21-20. The Patriots meanwhile won all 8 home games and were 5-3 ATS outgaining foes 437-278 and outscoring them 31-13. They played 2 common opponents in DEN and IND and NE lost both by a total of 4 points while BAL lost to Indy by 2 points but did crush Denver 30-7. The Ravens #13 offense underwent a surprising change for '09 after leading the NFL in rush att's (592) LY they dropped to 7th TY (468). Cam Cameron put the onus on Flacco in his 2nd year to speed up his development. Flacco fi nished in the top half of the NFL in comp %, yards, yds per att, TD's and int which is promising for 2010 as the 3rd year is when QB's make their biggest jump. BAL has a mediocre at best receiving unit as while Mason continues to impress with his toughness the Ravens lack deep speed and depth. The leading receiver is Ray Rice who leads the NFL in rec's by a RB (13th overall) and TE Heap who has climbed out of Harbaugh's doghouse with a good season. Rice fi nished 6th in rushing TY and was the fi rst RB in 33 games with 100 vs PIT. In Dec BAL avg'd 212 ypg (5.9) rushing going back to power football. BAL has fi elded 5 different OL combos TY with Michael Oher (legit ROY candidate) doing a great job fl ipping back and forth between RT and LT. The Ravens #3 defense is a bit misleading as they've allowed 335 ypg vs playoff teams. BAL's #5 rush defense has held up well despite DE Ngata (ankle) missing 2 games. The secondary is very thin especially at CB. SS Reed has missed the L5 games with hip and ankle injuries and the loss of his range in the back has really cost BAL vs the elite QB's. BAL was 11th LY in sacks (1 every 15.5 pass att's) but TY they fell to 18th (1 every 16.7 pass att's) as LB Suggs missed 3 games with an ankle injury and hasn't fully recovered yet. BAL fi nished 6th in our special teams due to their KR units allowing 20.5 but the loss of Webb (ACL) who had a 26.2 avg is a big blow.When reviewing the Patriots for '09 it's important to keep in mind they're in transition. NE saw many key defensive players leave prior to the season and the lack of leadership really hurt the #11 defense at the start of the year and in a few big games (IND, NO). NE's #13 rush def (111 ypg 4.4) has given up 9 games of 100 or more yards which is decent considering that none of the 3 starting DL including NT Wilfork have played all 16. The leader of the LB unit is now Jerod Mayo and unheralded Gary Guyton is the only LB to start all 16. LY NE was 14th in sacks and they look to have dipped TY (23rd) but its a bit misleading as both LY and TY their sack rate is approx 1 every 15 pass att's. Banta-Cain is the leading sacker for NE (9.5) validating his return to NE after spending the L2Y with SF. NE's #12 pass defense started the season slow as they adjusted to life without SS Harrison allowing 218 ypg (64%) with a 7-2 ratio in the fi rst 5 games and not incl HOU when they rested, they allowed 197 ypg (55%) with a 16-15 ratio. Brady quickly put an end to concerns about his knee as he avg'd 290 ypg (66%) with a 15-4 ratio prior to the bye. This being despite the injury of Fred Taylor who returned at the end of the year and lack of impact again by Maroney who has just one 100 yd game TY (TEN). NE's OL has been beaten up TY as Ctr Koppen and LG Mankins are the only ones to start all 16 games TY and the OL had 68 of a possible 80 starts. NE's special teams fi nished 28th in our rankings due to Hanson's net (34.1) and allowing 24.7 on KR's. PP doesn't take injuries into account & the loss of Wes Welker is a huge. He fi nished 2009 with 16 more rec's than the Giants Steve Smith & is much more valuable. The reports of Brady playing hurt are a bit of a surprise also (ribs/fi nger) but every player is injured at this point. Belichick has rested his 3 DL starters in some form the past 3 games. He has also used the L2 games to get Fred Taylor in game shape & along with Edelman who had 10 rec LW the Patriots do have options. BAL is off a long road trip to OAK after a physical game vs PIT & could be worn down. PP leans with NE here but with just 50 yds difference & this right at the side & total here this is a No Play.
NO PLAY: PATRIOTS 23 RAVENS 20
We'll throw out last week's results as Arizona knew by kickoff time that had nothing to play for and it showed. Prior to that, their last meeting was in 2006 as GB (-4) won 31-14 at home. The Cardinals fi nished this season 4-4 SU/ATS at home and were outgained by an avg of 356-342 and outscored 23-22. The Packers meanwhile went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS away but outgained their opponents by a 401-292 avg and outscored their foes by 10 ppg with an avg of 30-20. These 2 divisions faced each other so there are 8 similar teams that each played. Both went 6-2 SU and GB went 5-3 ATS while Arizona went 4-4 ATS. The Packers entered 2009 with the youngest roster for the 4th straight yr with only 4 players 30 or older. They exited the season as the 1st NFL team in history with a 4000 yd passer, 1200 yd rusher and two 1,000 yd receivers in B2B seasons. This is despite Rodgers having been sacked an NFL high 51 times. Injuries blasted the OL in the 1st half of the season as they went thru 6 different combos allowing 37 sacks. The Packers turned their season around in the DAL game and Rodgers has enjoyed the same starting 5 OL in the L7 games with 9 sacks. Since that game Rodgers has passed for 284 yds (66%) with a 14-2 ratio and he leads the NFL in rush yards by a QB. RB Grant has been overshadowed by the passing game but set a career high with 1253 yds (4.4) TY. GB made a savvy move in resigning Ahman Green TY as while he offers very little on the ground he is a solid 3rd Dn RB in passing situations. Jennings has long surpassed Driver as the #1 WR here but Driver remains an elite #2 (both top 35 avg yds after catch). Second year TE Finley who missed 3 games with a knee sprain has become a dangerous WR/TE hybrid that is popular in the NFL now and all 3 are in the top 55 for rec's TY. The most dramatic change here is the improvement of the defense under Dom Capers. LY GB fi nished 20th in total D and all'd 132 ypg (4.6) rushing which was 20th. TY in a new 3-4 scheme with a pair of rookie OLB's in Clay Matthews and Brad Jones starting GB fi nished 2nd in defense and allowed a franchise low 83 ypg (3.6) rushing. The Packers also lead the NFL with +24 TO's and lead the NFL with 27 int. Woodson is playing at a Def MVP level TY with 9 int and had an ultra rare combo of 2 FF's, int and sack vs DAL. The special teams are the Packers biggest weakness as they are 30th in our rankings as Kapinos has a poor net (34.1) and the return units are bad on both sides of the ball. The Cardinals earned their fi rst B2B division title since the 1974 and 1975 seasons and are the 3rd Super Bowl loser to return to the playoffs in the L10Y. The Cardinals 1st 10 win season since 1976 went thru the arm of Kurt Warner who is the 2nd QB in NFL history to pass for 100 TD's with 2 different teams (Tarkenton). Warner's #'s are down vs LY (286 ypg 67% 30-14) as defenses refused to let the duo of Fitzgerald (four 1000 yd seasons in 1st 6Y) and Boldin (fi ve 1000 yd seasons) make big plays and kept them in front of the defense. The Cardinals improving run game also had Whisenhunt dial back the pass att's (40 in 1st 9/33 in next 6). In the 1st 7 games ARZ avg'd 65 ypg (3.3) on the ground but as RB Wells adjusted to the NFL, ARZ avg'd 123 ypg (4.7) over the next 8 games prior to resting for the fi nal. The Cardinals OL has been outstanding TY allowing 26 sacks (1 every 23 pass att's) and had 27 straight games with the same 5 starters prior to LT Gandy (sports hernia) landing on IR. ARZ released its DC after the SB loss and the #20 defense is clone of the Steelers but with less freelancing in the secondary. They remain a high risk/high reward defense as while they are 5th in sacks by (1 every 14 pass att's) they are 23rd in pass defense with a respectable 27-21 ratio. CB Rodgers-Cromartie's 6 int are the most for an ARZ player since 2003 and Adrian Wilson is just the 10 player in NFL history with 20 sacks and 20 int in their career. The Cardinals 3-4 differs from PIT's as the DL provides pressure and 9 players have at least 2 sacks which diffuses the offenses ability to focus on just 1 key pass rusher (ie: DAL's Ware). Dockett is a highly active player that can play inside or outside in 4-3/3-4 snaps and leads the team in sacks and is the leader of the front 7. Whisenhunt has taken great pains to upgrade his special teams and they are a solid 3rd in our rankings thanks to their outstanding KR defense (20.5) and Ben Graham's 40.6 net punting (7th).The Cardinals were of course a "feel good" story LY making it to the SB after struggling down the stretch. Most people believe they'll be able to just fl ick a switch and do that again this season but we do not. PP agrees as well calling for the Packers to pull an outright upset here. Whisenhunt noted earlier TY that the Cardinals haven’t matured despite LY’s Super Bowl as they tend to relax at home instead of being inspired. GB’s special teams issues are a concern here but there is trend for offenses to start slow after a bye week which is essentially what ARZ did last week & we’ll side with the road team with momentum here.
4★ PACKERS 31 (+) CARDINALS 19
NC POWERSWEEP
FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND over Baltimore RATING: 2★
FORECAST: GREEN BAY over Arizona RATING: 3★
SPORTS MEMO
Best Bet: New England -3.5
Baltimore 21 at New England (-1) 27 - Week 4 O/U 43
Situational - Baltimore has been on a whirlwind voyage the last three weeks with
a last second loss at Pittsburgh and then must-win victory at Oakland. They now
return to the Foxboro after matching the Pats play-for-play in Week 4 loss. New
England is undefeated at home this season. Fundamentals - While Baltimore’s defense
numbers were top-tier, they were helped a great deal by a four-game swing
against Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland (twice) in which they allowed 13 total
points. The Ravens are still above the league average but do not grade out above
New England in this spot. The Patriots have dominated their last three first round
playoff games at home with a combined margin of victory of 96-39. Baltimore has
been tested on the road with tilts against San Diego, New England, Minnesota,
Green Bay and Pittsburgh (1-4 SU, 2-2-1 ATS). Game Notes - New England’s Wes
Welker is out with a knee injury. He finished the regular season with a team-high
123 catches. Final Take - The public and media are screaming upset but we don’t
see it. New England is still the better team and in this price range, gets our money.
Best Bet: Arizona -2.5
Green Bay (+3) 33 at Arizona 7 - Week 17 O/U 48
Situational - After Minnesota won it early afternoon contest, last week’s matchup
between these two teams meant nothing. Arizona took a conservative approach
while Green Bay went all out for much of its 33-7 win. Fundamental
- Quarterback play for both sides has been phenomenal for much of the year.
When Aaron Rodgers stayed on his feet, he was extremely effective. Expect
Arizona to bring a ton of pressure after finishing the season sixth in the NFL
with 43 sacks. Green Bay’s defense had a league-high 30 INTs this season. Arizona’s
lackluster defense stepped up to the tune of nine INTs and 10 sacks in
four postseason games last year. Game Notes - Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-
Cromartie left last week’s game with a knee injury. He claims he will be ready to
play but various media reports suggest he may not be able to go. WR Anquan
Boldin and DE Calais Campbell are also banged up. Final Take - In our opinion,
Arizona is once again being discounted. Don’t get us wrong, we’d rather see
them in the role of an underdog, but at this price at home, they get the nod.
DUNKEL INDEX
Baltimore at New England
The Patriots look to take advantage of a Baltimore team that is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games against teams with a winning record. New England is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-3)
Game 105-106: Baltimore at New England
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 136.463; New England 142.116
Dunkel Line: New England by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-3); Under
Game 107-108: Green Bay at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 134.923; Arizona 137.538
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Arizona by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-1); Over
NBA
Miami at LA Clippers
The Clippers look to build on their 4-0-1 ATS record in their last 5 games as a home favorite between 1 and 4 1/2 points. LA is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-1 1/2)
Game 801-802: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.829; Toronto 123.019
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 198
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1); Under
Game 803-804: New Orleans at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 117.944; Washington 116.862
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1; 193
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 198
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+1 1/2); Under
Game 805-806: Miami at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.985; LA Clippers 124.330
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-1 1/2); Over
Game 807-808: New Jersey at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 109.553; San Antonio 125.335
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 16; 188
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-14); Under
Game 809-810: Cleveland at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.964; Portland 123.610
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+5 1/2); Over
Game 811-812: Milwaukee at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 110.958; LA Lakers 126.518
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 15 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-9 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Florida State at Maryland
The Seminoles look to build on their 11-4-1 ATS record in their last 16 games as an underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Florida State is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Terrapins favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+4 1/2)
Game 813-814: Xavier at George Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Xavier 66.307; George Washington 59.401
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 7
Vegas Line: Xavier by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-4 1/2)
Game 815-816: Temple at Rhode Island
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 65.312; Rhode Island 67.775
Dunkel Line: Rhode Island by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Rhode Island by 3
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+3)
Game 817-818: Butler at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 67.542; Detroit 61.737
Dunkel Line: Butler by 6
Vegas Line: Butler by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+6 1/2)
Game 819-820: Evansville at Indiana State
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 50.354; Indiana State 60.809
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (-8 1/2)
Game 821-822: South Florida at Syracuse
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 61.168; Syracuse 77.308
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 16
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 17
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+17)
Game 823-824: LaSalle at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 57.160; Massachusetts 58.086
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 1
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+1 1/2)
Game 825-826: Northwestern at Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.011; Michigan 68.318
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Michigan by 6
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-6)
Game 827-828: Western Kentucky at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 60.342; Denver 56.956
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 1
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-1)
Game 829-830: Washington State at Arizona State
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 63.759; Arizona State 72.385
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-7 1/2)
Game 831-832: Valparaiso at Wright State
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 51.116; Wright State 63.895
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 12
Vegas Line: Wright State by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+14 1/2)
Game 833-834: Kansas at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 79.719; Tennessee 74.143
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6 1/2)
Game 835-836: UC Davis at Cal Poly
Dunkel Ratings: UC Davis 48.307; Cal Poly 49.326
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 1
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 2
Dunkel Pick: UC Davis (+2)
Game 837-838: Washington at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 69.931; Arizona 62.394
Dunkel Line: Washington by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington by 2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-2)
Game 839-840: Florida State at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 67.690; Maryland 71.032
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+4 1/2)
Game 841-842: Pacific at UC-Santa Barbara
Dunkel Ratings: Pacific 56.400; UC-Santa Barbara 54.093
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Pacific by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-1 1/2)
Game 843-844: Virginia Tech at North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 64.929; North Carolina 76.299
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 845-846: San Diego at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 54.162; San Francisco 50.377
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-3)
Game 847-848: St. Mary's (CA) at Santa Clara
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 68.519; Santa Clara 52.848
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 13
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-13)
Game 849-850: Oregon State at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 56.970; Oregon 61.411
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Oregon by 8
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+8)
Game 851-852: Eastern Washington at Montana State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 39.511; Montana State 52.140
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (-12)
Game 853-854: Manhattan at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 47.089; Fairfield 59.073
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 12
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-8 1/2)
NHL
Dallas at Columbus
The Stars look to take advantage of a Columbus team that is 1-5 in its last 6 home games. Dallas is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+105)
Game 51-52: Ottawa at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.233; Carolina 10.932
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 53-54: Anaheim at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.696; Chicago 13.520
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-280); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-280); Over
Game 55-56: Dallas at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.101; Columbus 10.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+105); Under
VEGAS EXPERTS
Green Bay Packers at Arizona Cardinals
We can not see how anyone can make a case for the Cardinals here. Green Bay was red-hot down the stretch, going 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS, and has a better record on the road than Arizona does at home. The Pack is averaging over 30 PPG on the road. They have covered six straight road game vs. NFC West opponents. At 11-4-1 ATS, they were tied for the best pointspread mark in the league.
Play on: Green Bay
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on LA Lakers -9
Expect the Lakers, who are 20-3 at home and winning by 9.6 points on average in those games, to bounce back strong tonight against a Bucks team that is just 4-11 on the road after losing consecutive games for only the second time this season. The last time the Lakers lost 2 in a row, they responded with a 13-point home win over the Pistons, and I expect them to post a similar result tonight. The Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600 and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the Lakers.
Larry Ness
CLE -5.5 vs POR
The Blazers went 34-7 at home last year but after Friday's 107-98 win over the Lakers, Portland's NINTH straight home victory over LA, the Blazers will take a 14-6 record (just 9-10-1 ATS) into Sunday's game with the Cavs. While the Blazers were beating the Lakers on Friday, the Cavs were losing 99-97 in Denver. Cleveland's five-game road trip continues tonight and Cleveland is 14-7 SU and 13-8 ATS away from home this year. Was picking Shaq up a good idea? The answer won't come in the regular season, as Cleveland's postseason performance will determine whether is was a good or bad idea. We do know a few things though. LeBron (28.9-7.1-7.7) is still "the King," the Cavs are as deep as any team in the league, they can "shoot the three" (41.6 percent ranks 2nd) and Cleveland can play D (93.8 PPG ranks 3rd and 43.3 FG percentage ranks 1st). Portland's Roy (23.2-4.7-5.2) and Aldridge (15.7-7.8) remain the team's stars but Portland's depth has been severely hampered by constant injuries. Defensive specialist Batum has yet to play a game, valuable sixth-man Outlaw was lost in the season's 11th game, Oden fell shortly after that (then Przybilla was lost as well) and scoring sparkplug Fernandez has been nagged by injuries for more than a month. The Cavaliers have won five straight over the Blazers and while none have been by more than eight points, I'm laying the points with Cleveland in this one. The Cavs are off a loss while the Blazers just took down the hated Lakers. This is a great spot for Cleveland.
Lenny Del Genio
LAC -2 vs MIA
Are the Clippers really good enough to be laying points agianst the Heat? We think so and so does Los Angeles' recent results. The Clips have covered the number in each of their previous five games, including an outright win over the Lakers on Wednesday, a victory they have had three full days to savor. The Heat did lose here last year and while LA has been resting, they had to play Phoenix. They have Utah on deck tommorrow, so it will be easy to get caught looking ahead. Keep an eye on Clippers PF Chris Kaman, who is averaging 20 PPG and 51% shooting. Miami is just 25-38 ATS off their previous 61 SU wins. Take LA Clippers.
Tom Freese
St. Marys at Santa Clara
Prediction: St. Marys
Saint Mary's is 13-2 ATS this year and they are 6-0 ATS as double digit favorites. The Gaels are 21-8 ATS their last 29 games vs. a team with a losing record and they are 5-0 ATS off a win by 20 or more points. Santa Clara is 4-9 ATS their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning road record and they are 0-5 ATS their last 5 home games. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS as an underdog of 13 or more points and they are 2-6 ATS their last 8 Conference Games. PLAY ON SAINT MARY'S
Black Widow
1* on Temple +2.5
Temple has played a brutal schedule this season, and they've come out of it with a 12-3 record to this point. The soft schedule that Rhode Island has played will finally catch up to them Sunday when they take on a superior Owls' team. Temple is 6-2 S.U. & 6-2 ATS on the road this season, winning by 8.4 points/game. The Owls really get after it defensively, giving up only 55.5 points/game and 35.1% shooting away from home. Temple is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Rhode Island is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in a home game where the total is 130 to 134.5 since 1997. The Owls are 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. Take Temple and the points.
John Martin
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers +6
The Blazers have one of the best home-court advantages in the league, going 14-6 at home this season. Despite battling through injuries, Portland is still playing great basketball in winning 9 of their last 13 games overall. Cleveland shouldn't even be favored in this game, let alone laying a big number on the road. The clear value here is with Portland. The Blazers are 18-6 ATS as a home underdog over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with Portland as the underdog.
Info Plays
3* on Miami Heat +2.5
Reasons why Miami covers
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Home favorites (LA CLIPPERS) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as an underdog. This is a 57-23 ATS System hitting 71.2% since 1996.
2.) The Clippers are coming off a win over their arch rival, their nemesis, and the defending world champion Lakers. If ever there were to be a letdown by the Clippers, it would take place Sunday against the Miami Heat. The Clippers have been known to have letdowns in these spots in the past, going 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after an upset win as an underdog. Bet Miami on the road.
JR O'Donnell
Oregon State vs. Oregon Total
Play: Over 134
We are on the Over 134 tonight 10:30 as the Ore State Beavers {6-8} invade Eugene to battle the Ore Ducks {10-4}. Looking inside some #'s we find the Ducks off 2 90 pointers @ Wash State and Washington. They are confident as the O is finding a groove, We do notethat interstate battles tend to lean to the under , but not this baby. The Ducks own huge edges vs the Beavers and do stroke the Ft @ 72% and 39% down town behind the 3 line. The Ducks score in bunches and have 3 solid players who average DBL DIGITS and super guard Porter leads the way, We also note that last game in 2009 was a track meet 79-69 so these 2 will move the rock!!
Jack Jones
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Over 47
The Green Bay Packers have scored 36, 48, and 33 points in their last three games, while the Cardinals scored 30+ in three of their last four (excluding last week when they rested most of their starters).
The Cardinals are scoring 23.4 ppg this year against teams who allow 22.8 and they give up 23.2 ppg at home against teams who score only 20.5. The Packers have put up a whopping 30.2 ppg on the road this year against teams allowing 22.3.
Packers game have played to the OVER 19 out of 26 times when Green Bay has won two straight games by 14 or more points since 1992 and the Pack are 19-9 OVER coming off a win the last three seasons. I think you are going to see plenty of points in this playoff game today.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oregon State Beavers +8.5
Bottom Line: Plain and simple, Oregon State isn't getting nearly enough respect with this line in what is a big time rivalry game. In fact, OSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season and a strong 14-5 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons, losing by just 3.6 points on average in these spots. Take the points.