JR TIPS
Cavaliers at Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers haven't been able to beat the Cleveland Cavaliers anywhere over the past two years while LeBron James has nearly averaged a triple-double in leading the Cavaliers to five consecutive victories over Portland. The Trail Blazers Brandon Roy led the way with 32 points and Jerryd Bayless had 21 points in 21 minutes off the bench as the Blazers stretched their home winning streak over Los Angeles to nine straight with a 107-98 victory on Friday. James had 35 points, seven assists and six boards Friday night at Denver but had a season-high eight turnovers. The Cavaliers gave the ball away 19 times overall and shot only 60% from the line in a 99-97 loss to a Nuggets team playing without Carmelo Anthony. Varejao had a season-high 22 points and 10 rebounds in a 104-99 win over the Blazers at Quicken Loans Arena on Dec. 11th and the Cavaliers are 11-3 when scores in double figures. Roy has averaged 23.3 points on 35.9 percent shooting in his last three games against Cleveland and LaMarcus Aldridge 22.7 points in his last three. The Cavs have dominated this series as all matchup's are in the favor of the Cleveland. Cleveland lost a game in which they should have won easily but due to turnovers and bad foul shooting, they lost to the Nuggets. Portland is coming off a big win at home against the Lakers but this is will be a tougher task trying to give Cleveland their second loss in a row. Look for James to set the tone in this game by getting his teammates involved. He took 18 out of 28 shots in the second half and had a season high in turnovers so the Cavs will get back to playing team ball in which they have successfully dominated the Blazers winning 5 in a row and 3 in a row at the Rose garden.
TAKE CAVS -3
Bryan Leonard
Cleveland at Portland
The Cavaliers are a much considered play each time they are off a loss. The past two seasons they are 21-7 75% ATS following a defeat. The season before that they were a profitable 54.8% ATS off a defeat. After losing at Denver on Friday we can expect a superior effort from Cleveland, especially when facing a short handed Portland squad off a huge upset win over the Lakers.
PLAY CLEVELAND
Steve Merril
Kansas vs. Tennessee
Play: Kansas -5.5
Tennessee put together a total team effort in their 88-71 win over Charlotte on Wednesday night. That was their first game playing without the four players who were suspended indefinitely after getting arrested on gun and marijuana possession chargers. Two of those four were starters in Tyler Smith and Cameron Tatum, and Melvin Goins and Brian Williams were key pieces off the bench. But the team rallied together and played a fantastic game in their absence. We often see this in sports; the star player is out and the team plays more together and usually gets an impressive win. The problem comes in the next game when the team fails to repeat that effort and usually suffers a letdown. And when we add in the fact that the Vols shot an incredible 57.6% from the field in their big win over Charlotte, it’s easy to envision a lesser performance this afternoon. There’s no doubt that Kansas is the most talented team in the country. The Jayhawks lay over Tennessee talent wise even if the Vols were playing with their full compliment of players. And now with the Vols missing four of their top 8 guys, Kansas’ talent edge will be even more prominent. What keeps this play from being stronger is this quote by Kansas head coach Bill Self: "No matter what happens Sunday, it's not as important as what happens Wednesday. I've always felt that non-conference games are not as important as conference games. I'm really looking forward to us getting back at a decent time so we can start preparing for Nebraska. The conference season is the more important.”
John Ryan
Oregon State vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon State +8
3* graded play on Oregon State as they take on state rival Oregon set to start at 10:30 EST in PAC-10 action.This play is very similar to the Georgia Southern winner we had yesterday for the following reasons. OSU comes into this game losers of three straight and the last two losses involving horrid offense and defense. oregon comes into this game winners of 6 straight and the last 3 shooting very well. Their last win at Washington they hit 53% form the field. Neither team will continue at the level of play they currently have shown. We fully expect OSU to play well and for Oregon to struggle a bit due to over confidence. OSU has demonstrated an ability to rise up against better competition. They are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Another sign of over confidence is that Oregon was nailed for a high number of fouls in their last win. A large number of fouls always includes foolish ones and not a reflection of aggressive team play. Oregon, in fact, is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls over the last 2 seasons. Take Oregon State.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Packers/Cardinals OVER 47.5
Plays Over on road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (GREEN BAY); an excellent offensive team scoring 27 or more points per game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games, are 31-9 since 1983. This system is also 12-3 the last 10 seasons. We've seen an average posted total of 45.1 points in these games and an average combined total score of 54.2. Bet the Over for 1 Unit.
Hunter Price
Green Bay Packers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Play: Green Bay Packers -2½
This game marks the end of the Wild Card weekend and from what we have seen so far this week it should come as no shock that the Green Bay Packers are going to come out on top. The Reason for this line of thinking lies in the fact that the Packers offensive game plan is set perfectly for playing Arizona. As a result they have been able to pass or run at will on this team. I also believe that this game qualifies for the "3rd time is a charm" trend. For those of you who didn't get a chance to read my article on the subject this trend shows that teams that have already beaten the same team twice in the same year have a all time mark of 13-7 in the postseason in the playoffs. The Packers are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games as well as 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Roll with the pack laying less than a FG and get paid this Sunday.
Chris Jordan
Green Bay at ARIZONA
While the side is rated 300♦ in the premium package I am offering today, want you to take this complimentary winner on the total and play it Over the posted number.
This is going to be a great game, as you can tell from the line movement, both teams have been considered the favorite at some point ... and it ain't because either one plays really good defense.
Arizona is on its own turf, and will be looking to take its game vertical, while balancing things out with a much better rushing game than it had last season. The Cardinals have a knack for seizing control of the games they're victorious in early on, and I think we're going to see them do this, forcing the Packers to get into offensive mode.
Green Bay is lethal with Aaron Rodgers red hot right now. He is mixing in his plays well, finding his targets with such precision, he directs traffic with his offensive line so the rushing game is complementary ... he is playing like an MVP, there's no doubt about it.
At 48.5 points, you're basically asking me if I think these two offensive juggernauts can put up 24 points on one another, and my answer is an easy yes.
The Packers are looking to make the same kind of run the Cardinals did last year, while Arizona simply wants to keep on, keepin on as the NFC champion.
This one is going to be much higher than 48.5, a number I see being eclipsed by the end of the third quarter.
5♦ PACKERS/CARDINALS OVER
Drew Gordon
Green Bay at ARIZONA +2'
33-23-3 roll L59 Free Plays, incl. the Cowboys crushing the Eagles 34-14 last night! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Packers/Cardinals match up.
Packers-backers this game should scare you. Why? Because the Pack has gone from flying under the radar, to being the public darling in this contest. From a cappers standpoint, Green Bay has lost all value, going from a + 2' point road dog to a now -2.5 point road favorite - a huge swing in my eyes! Sorry guys, but Vegas isn't stupid, as I fully expect a public massacre with a strong showing by the Cardinals here (80% of country on Packers - not a good sign).
Yes, Green Bay killed Arizona, in Arizona, last week and things seem set for another blowout, right? WRONG! Kurt Warner played on a few series in that game, and we all know Matt Leinart cannot move this Cardinals high-octane offense like Warner can! Once Warner went out of the game, Arizona's players decided to treat that game like a preseason match up, giving up big chunks of yardage with unfocused and inconcisistent play. A full 4 quarters of Warner is a MUCH different story, and you'll see the difference today.
Also, let's not make too much of Anquan Boldin most likely not play in this one, because we all know Stev Breaston is one of the best # 3 wide receivers in the NFL. He'll move up to # 2 without so much as a hitch, as we've seen him do time and time again. The more important news is CB Rodgers-Cromartie will play, and that's key to limiting a red-hot Rodgers.
Finally, I know Green Bay-backers have been touting their teams 7-0-1 ATS record over their L8 games, but that ship has already sailed. Packers fans should be glad they banked in the final half of the season, but in this match up its simply "too easy" to play the Packers. Make no mistake, this will be a very competitive game, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if Arizona came out guns blazing and won this match up outright.
Take Arizona plus the points over Green Bay in this NFL Wild Card match up.
4♦ ARIZONA