Larry Ness
Illinois vs. Northwestern
Pick: Illinois
Illinois lost its top-two scorers from last year, guards Paul (16.6-4.4) and Richardson (12.30. The Illini are led in scoring this year by Drake transfer, Rayvonte Rice at 18.8 PPG (also 6.0 RPG). Returning guards Abrams (12.6-4.0-3.2) and Bertrand (11.4-5.8) start alongside of Rice in a three-guard lineup, joined by 6-7 Illinois St transfer Ekey (8.1-5.9) and the 6-11 Egwu (7.7-5.6). That “iron-five” all average 27-plus MPG.
Illinois had been piling up wins but seemingly not getting any respect, failing to make the top-25 despite a 13-2 mark. The Illini hoped to gain some recognition with a road game against unbeaten Wisconsin, but a 25-point loss to the No. 5 Badgers certainly isn't going to help Illinois' reputation. Coach John Groce's squad needs to bounce back when it travels to face in-state rival Northwestern on Sunday.
The Wildcats were hoping the hiring of Chris Collins as coach would turn things around in conference play, but three straight losses by an average margin of 25.3 PPG wasn't quite the start Northwestern had hoped for. Offense has been a problem for the Wildcats, who are averaging only 55.6 PPG in league play, which is not a good omen as Illinois allows a modest 63.6 PPG.
Illinois head coach Groce was obviously unhappy about the loss to Wisconsin and in particular, was bothered by the way his team didn't respond to the early adversity against the Badgers. A 20-0 first-half run put the Illini down early and they were never able to make a run to make a game of it. “You've got to respond to adversity better than that,” Groce told the Champaign News-Gazette. “We have this season, but for some reason tonight, against a really good ball team that's as explosive as they are, you can't do that. It's very atypical of this team, something we take a lot of pride in. I didn't like our look and body language during that stretch.”
Northwestern is led by 65- swingman Drew Crawford (15.7-6.9) points per game), with guard JerShon Cobb (12.0-4.1) as the only other player on the team averaging in double figures. With so few point-scoring options, Collins has been trying to get his duo as many touches as possible early to try to get them both going and maybe spark the team's offense. “We really haven't had both of them going on the same night,” Collins told the Chicago Tribune. “For us, our margin of error is very small. We need good players to play really well.”
Off of a humbling 95-70 beat-down by unbeaten Wisconsin Wednesday night, expect Illinois to take out a bit of its frustrations on a struggling Northwestern team that has its fans wondering why the administration moved out Bill Carmody so longtime Coach K sidekick Chris Collins could cut his teeth as a head coach. So far it's not working out with Collins.
To make matters even worse for Northwestern, expect Groce to remind his players the Wildcats won at Champaign last year, as 10-point dogs. Lay the points with the road favorite.
Jimmy Boyd
LaSalle -4
LaSalle is clearly the better team in this game, and I don't think they will have any problems covering such a small number against Duquesne. The Explorers are a very talented team defensively. They have held opponents to 66.5 points per game on the road this season. Their opponents overall scoring average is 72.6 points per game, so shutting down Duquesne should not be a difficult task to accomplish.
Duquesne has been horrible defensively. Their opponents average 69.5 points per game, but the Dukes have surrendered 74.9 points per game. I don't think the Dukes will be able to turn this game into a shootout against LaSalle's outstanding defense, and that puts them at a serious disadvantage. I also think Duquesne's statistics are a bit inflated due to their soft schedule. There recent non-conference opponents have come from the American East, Northeast, Western Athletic and Southern Conferences, so I don't put a lot of stock in their recent five game win streak.
The Dukes are 3-11 ATS when coming off a home win, and 3-12 ATS when coming off a game against a conference opponent. They are 7-16 ATS when playing as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Dukes are a team that relies heavily in their ability to force turnovers, and they won't have that luxury in this matchup with LaSalle. The Explorers are averaging just 10 turnovers per game, and Duquesne is 9-24 ATS against good ball handling teams that commit 14 or less turnovers per game.
Jim Feist
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Minnesota Timberwolves sit fourth in the Northwest division of the Western Conference, nine games back of Portland. The Wolves are the 2nd ranked scoring team in the NBA (107.6 ppg), led by forward Kevin Love (25.9 ppg). Hopefully T'Wolves fans won't get too attached to Love as the free agent likely will move on to greener pastures next season. Minnesota has also covered six of their last nine games. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have the best record in the west at 28-8 and bring a 3-game winning streak into tonight's contest. The Spurs solid frontcourt took a bit of hit with the loss of center Tiago Splitter who is out with a shoulder injury. Manu Ginobili is also doubtful for today's contest with a hamstring injury. It's been hit and miss against the number for the Spurs who haven't covered two straight in 10 games. The Timberwolves have covered three straight against the Spurs including the one matchup this year in San Antonio. Love will provide plenty of offense for the Wolves as he looks to improve his lot in next year's free agency market. I look for the Wolves to come in under the number once again here on Sunday.
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Edmonton vs. ChicagoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Four of the last five meetings between these teams have seen goal scoring totals of more six or more goals and I expect no different here. The Blackhawks are struggling uncharacteristically here with three straight losses and should be plenty thirty for a win here against a team it beat 5-1 on the road the last time these teams met. The Blackhawks played just last night in Montreal and have had to travel a large distance across the country to play the game so you have to think the team will not be that sharp. The Oilers meanwhile are coming off an impressive come from behind win over Pittsburgh and should be able to put a nice fight here after having the day in between games while sitting at home. Note the higher number has hit in 10 of the last 11 Oilers games this season. Take close look at the “over” again here.
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Utah at Washington StFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UtahFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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After its upset bid against Colorado fell short by a mere point in OT at Spokane on Wednesday, not sure how much Wazzu has left in its tank for incoming Utah, eager to avoid a Pacific Northwest sweep after its two-point loss at UW. Especially with high-scorer (17.7 ppg; also only DD scorer) G DaVonte Lacy still unlikely to see many, if any, minutes, as he recuperates from a recent appendectomy that has kept him out of three of the past four games. Utes have demonstrated a lot more offensive versatility than the Cougs, reflected in Utah's sparkling 52.4% shooting.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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CAROLINA +105 over San FranciscoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Line opened with the 49ers being favored by 2½ points and it’s come down since, although the public is still leaning to the Niners. This is a replay of week 10 when the Panthers won 10-9 in San Francisco. But even the Vegas line doesn't believe that week 10 means that much coming into this one with the 49ers sporting an improved team and the Panthers showing up as a newbie to the post season. San Fran doesn’t need much of an introduction. We all know who they are and it’s worth noting that Michael Crabtree didn’t play in the first game and his importance can’t be overstated enough. Crabtree is a game changer.
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Carolina hasn’t really won over the public yet but that and that’s because they don’t get the exposure of these other big name teams that seem to show up on prime time games every week. Teams like Seattle, San Fran, New Orleans, New England, Denver, Dallas and Philadelphia are constantly in the limelight while not many are watching Panthers games. In fact, when the Panthers did show in prime time back on Sunday night in Week 14, they were buried by the Saints, 31-14. That was the Panthers only loss in their past 12 games. Carolina also went 7-1 at home with only loss occurring on opening day when the Seahawks defeated them, 12-7. Furthermore, teams with a bye in the first round of the playoffs went 2-0 yesterday. The 49ers traveled to Green Bay last week and played a physical game in frigid temperatures. Those games in extreme cold temperatures take a much bigger toll than playing in normal conditions and these aren’t the Packers on defense. Carolina's defense ranks sixth against the pass and second overall. That's a significant difference than facing Green Bay. The 49ers' Colin Kaepernick was sacked four times by Carolina's four-man pass rush, and six times total in the first game between these teams. Most importantly, when the public is leaning one way and the line is moving the other way, it’s a big warning flag that should not be ignored.
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New Jersey +121 over TORONTOFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. There is no reason whatsoever to stop fading the Maple Leafs. Toronto has dropped four straight and has been outscored over that stretch by a count of 21-7. In their last two home games, the Leafs have been outscored by a count of 12-4. Over their past 24 games, the Maple Leafs have two regulation wins and that is the worst mark over that span in the NHL. There is no turnaround coming either. From poor defense to forwards not back-checking, to being badly outshot almost every game, to Randy Carlyle being on the hot seat, the Maple Leafs have turned into a tentative team that is playing scared and being at home right now is not beneficial. To make matters worse, Toronto will face a Devils team that has allowed the least amount of scoring chances and shots on net in the NHL.
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The Devils figure to be sky high for this game for a couple of reasons. First, they are tied with the Leafs with 47 points and could move further up the standings into eighth place with a win here. More importantly, New Jersey has lost five in a row to the Maple Leafs and this is an outstanding opportunity to get that proverbial monkey off its back. The Devils have outshot the Maple Leafs 125-78 over their past four meetings and lost them all. This time around, however, Cory Schneider will make his third straight start after winning his last two and allowing just one goal against combined. Schneider played last night against Florida and he played in Thursday’s 1-0 win over Dallas. The Devils are so determined to win here that they are sticking with Schneider despite him playing three games in four days. In the second game of back-to-back games this season, the Devils are 9-3. In the second game of back-to-backs after winning the first one the Devils are 3-0. These two are going in opposite directions right now and it isn’t likely to stop here.
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NORTHWESTERN +5½ over IllinoisSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Illini are ranked for the 1st time this year at #23 and one of our favorite angles over the years is to fade overpriced teams when they make the polls for the first time. Spotting points with ranked teams on the road against unranked opposition has been a bankroll killer for years. Illinois’ 13-3 record is all smoke and mirrors when you consider these rankings on the Illini:
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-184th in points per gameFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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-101st in reboundingFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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-316th in assistsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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-252 in FG %FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois is 1-3 in road games with only win occurring against UNLV by 2 points. Outside of a 1-point win over Mizzou, Illinois has defeated a bunch of marshmallows. Illinois’ frontcourt duo of Jon Ekey and Nnanna Egwu are soft on the boards and they are not producing offensively either.
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Northwestern has played a tough schedule recently with three consecutive games against Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. They’ve also played Mizzou, UCLA and NC State in successive games back in late November. The Wildcats have issues but they play a strong defensive game and taking back points in a low scoring game has value. It’s also worth noting that the Illini are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big Ten and they were badly exposed by Wisconsin in their last game with a 25-point loss.
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Pass NBAFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Mark FrancoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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49ers PkFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two of the league's hottest teams will square off when the second-seeded Carolina Panthers host the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake. It's a rematch of a Week 10 battle in San Francisco, a defensive duel in which the Panthers prevailed 10-9 as part of an eight-game winning streak and an 11-1 finish to close the regular season. The 49ers have ripped off seven consecutive victories and are seeking their third straight trip to the NFC title game. Wide receiver Michael Crabtree missed the first matchup against Carolina while recovering from surgery on his Achilles' tendon, but he offered a reminded of what an impact player he can be with eight catches for 125 yards in last week's 23-20 win at frigid Green Bay. Tight end Vernon Davis also was a non-factor in the earlier meeting after suffering a second-quarter concussion, but he reeled in a 28-yard scoring pass last week for his sixth TD reception in six postseason games. Having the duo on the field should make life easier for running back Frank Gore and Kaepernick. I like the 49ers to get it done here on the road.
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Broncos -9FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos get a chance to avenge their only home loss when they host the sixth-seeded San Diego Chargers in the AFC divisional round on Sunday. Manning guided Denver to the top seed behind a record-setting offense that surpassed 600 points for the first time in league history. The Broncos were held under 30 points only three times and two of them came against the Chargers, who lost a 28-20 decision in San Diego before pulling out a 27-20 win in Denver on Dec. 12. Wide receiver Wes Welker returns to the lineup after missing the past two games with a concussion, giving Manning his full array of weapons - Denver is the only team in history to have five players score at least 10 touchdowns. Last week was more of a case that the Bengals gave away the game that the Chargers had won it. I see the Broncos being fully focused and get the win and cover here.
Carlos Salazar
Chargers vs Broncos
Play: Over 54
These two teams face off for the third time this season and Carlos sees both teams putting the ball in the end zone early and often. Look for San Diego exploit the Denver defense and for Peyton to strike quickly too.
Will RogersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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New Jersey vs. TorontoFFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The New Jersey Devils defeated Florida in overtime at the Meadowlands last night, and they are right back on the ice tonight in Toronto. The Devils have their work cut out for them, facing a desperate and hungry Leafs team that has dropped four straight. Expect Corey Schneider to see a lot of rubber here in Toronto.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1: Previous History - Toronto won all four meetings with New Jersey in 2013, and three of those games were played at the Air Canada Center. The Leafs have a winning record at home (14-10), while the Devils are 9-12 away from home.
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2: Power-Play - The Leafs own one of the most potent power-plays in the NHL, converting on better than 21% of their man-advantage opportunities. They have netted 31 power-play goals this season, eight more than the Devils.
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3: X-Factor - This is what you call a "must win game" for Toronto. We saw a glimpse of that desperation in Washington: "(That) might be one of the better games we've played in a month. We showed desperation. We showed that we care," coach Randy Carlyle said. "We've been begging, pleading, kicking, kissing, whatever we can do to try and find a way to play with some confidence. It seems like we've squeezed our sticks here. It's mind boggling."
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Cleveland Cavaliers +3½FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kings took care of Orlando 103-83 last game to cover the 7.5-point spread, but that was their first cover as a favorite all season. Sacramento is just 1-10 ATS when laying points, including 0-8 ATS when laying less than 6 points. Furthermore, the Kings are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Cavs, are off a 113-102 win in Utah, are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Cavs are also 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus the West, earning these covers against the Nuggets, Clippers, Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Kyrie Irving is a handful. Plus, Luol Deng gives the Cavs another scorer and defensive stopper. Take the points.
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San Francisco / Carolina Over 41FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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In the first meeting between these teams back on Nov. 11 it was a dead-nuts under affair as Carolina upset the Niners, 10-9. But much has changed since that game. First off, San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick has started to be more aggressive and is now running more like he did last year when he led his team to the NFC Championship. He was also without key weapons Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree in that first meeting, but both will be in uniform today. Since that loss, the Niners have scored 23 points or more in six out of their last seven games and despite that low-scoring game this season, this series has gone under in 10 out of the last 13, including five of six when played in Carolina.
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San Francisco -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Some teams build their franchise for 1 reason, and that is to win championships, and the 49ers are such a team. Do not overthink this one, look at San Fran, red hot, 7 in a trow, good QB, big time run game, killer WRs, top 3 tight end in the NFL and a mean and nasty defense that can rush the passer, and well coached. EXPERIENCE COUNTS and San Fran has it and Carolina does not. First Playoff game for Newton. Kappernick is 3-1 in the post season, losing only the Superbowl, and San Fran playing with revenge in a pick em ball game basically.
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San Francisco at CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: OverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The simulator shows a high probability that 44 or more points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 27-6 ATS mark for 82% winners since 1983. Play 'over' with home teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (CAROLINA) after 3 or more consecutive wins and is now facing an opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins. This system has gone 9-1 'over' for 90% winners over thee last 10 seasons. Cam and Kap both have very similar stats and are two of three QB this season to rush for 500+ yards. Last week Kap made the Packers pay dearly with his runs leading to first downs and extending drives that ended in scores. Newtown for the season made a first down on 40% of his runs, which is an amazing stat. These teams have excellent defense, BUT they are going to be stretched by the mobility of each QB and why I believe this game will play 'over' the posted togtal of 41 points. SF definitely has the playoff experience bring back the large majority of players from last years Super Bowl team. Carolina has very few left from their last playoff appearance. On defense, the 49ers have veterans Brooks and Willis, who have combined 17 seasons of experience. I do believe that the 49ers have the edge in defending Cam and limiting his impact in this game. 49ers have more play makers on offense and have an tremendous matchup advantage with TE Vernon Davis down the seems and Crabtree on the perimeter. So, although I do think the 49ers will win this game based on the matchups, the key and dominant play to make is the 'OVER'