Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 13

DUNKEL INDEX

Michigan at Ohio State
The Wolverines look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 games at Ohio State. Michigan is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wolverines favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+2)

Game 815-816: Providence at Seton Hall (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Providence 56.774; Seton Hall 63.417
Dunkel Line: Seton Hall by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (-4 1/2)

Game 817-818: Nebraska at Michigan State (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 55.269; Michigan State 72.446
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 17; 122
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 19; 119 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+19); Over

Game 819-820: Massachusetts at Fordham (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 57.869; Fordham 52.459
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 4
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-4)

Game 821-822: Michigan at Ohio State (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.482; Ohio State 75.444
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 145
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+2); Over

Game 823-824: Wichita State at Evansville (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 66.497; Evansville 61.907
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-3)

Game 825-826: Iowa at Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 66.199; Northwestern 63.606
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 827-828: Maryland at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 64.921; Miami (FL) 72.934
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 8; 128
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-6); Under

Game 829-830: Penn State at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 53.751; Purdue 66.475
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 12 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Purdue by 10 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-10 1/2); Under

Game 831-832: Arizona State at Oregon (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 62.198; Oregon 70.351
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8
Vegas Line: Oregon by 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (+9)

Game 833-834: Niagara at Fairfield (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 55.416; Fairfield 62.447
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 7
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-5 1/2)

Game 835-836: Marist at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 46.632; Manhattan 52.338
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 7
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+7)

Game 837-838: Loyola-MD at Rider (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 55.541; Rider 49.930
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-2)

Game 839-840: St. Peter's at Siena (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 45.907; Siena 49.497
Dunkel Line: Siena by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-1 1/2)

Game 841-842: Canisius at Iona (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 54.216; Iona 59.155
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5
Vegas Line: Iona by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+7 1/2)

Prediction Machine

Paul's Pick: Seattle +2.5 @ Atlanta (Covers 60.4%)

Even at 1 PM ET/10 AM PT, the Seattle Seahawks are the better team and have the most exploitable advantages in this matchup with the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons. Such advantages should ultimately lead to an outright, "upset" victory for the Seahawks.

Seattle is 12-5 straight-up and 11-5-1 against-the-spread versus the sixth toughest NFL schedule to-date. En route to that impressive record and the top Wild Card spot in the NFC, the Seahawks won five of their six games against NFL playoff teams, including upset wins against Green Bay (whether they truly "won" that game or not, they were in position to have a chance to win it at the end), New England and San Francisco. Also, upset victories by Seattle over Dallas and at Chicago ultimately kept those teams out of the postseason. It is obvious to note that Seattle is 8-0 at home and just 4-5 on the road, but, as we discussed last week, the team had the ball with a chance to win each of those games in the final two minutes and, as crucial rookies like Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner have improved over the course of the season, the Seahawks have now won three straight games away from home.

The Seahawks win in the best way possible - they do everything right. At this point, Seattle has a top ten offense running and passing, the best overall defense in the league, a top five special teams (assuming Ryan Longwell does not ruin that - at the very least the Seahawks are tremendous in the return game) and they are healthy for this time of the year. Seattle finished third in yards-per-play margin (+0.76) and first in points-per-play margin (+0.16) - against a very difficult schedule.

Atlanta is 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS against the 26th ranked NFL schedule (by our metrics - purely by opponents' wins and losses, it was the easiest NFL schedule). Even given the league's best record, Atlanta finished seventh in our NFL Power Rankings, which is essentially where the Falcons spent most of the season. Led by Matt Ryan and his trio of weapons in the passing game - Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez - Atlanta has the fourth most efficient passing offense in the league. That certainly means something - especially at home on turf. It means less, though, when facing the league's best and deepest secondary (which Seattle has) and when that is the only elite element to Atlanta's team. In fact, even with that schedule, Atlanta was out-gained on a per-play (-0.12 margin) basis over the course of the season. The Falcons were not incredibly efficient over the course of the season, but they did win their close games (two wins by fewer than three points is not a terrible sign) by winning the turnover battle and forcing opponents to hurt themselves. That will be difficult to do against a team that does more things better and is equally adept winning the turnover margin in a game. Atlanta looks like a version of the Indianapolis Colts from this season that played in a more winnable division to get an extra win or two and secure home field advantage. That's not really a good thing.

Ultimately, the scariest number for Falcons' fans should be 4.8. Atlanta has allowed 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground (fourth worst in the league) and Seattle has averaged 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground (fifth best in the league - while running the ball a league-high 55% of the time). Teams averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry this season. When one of the relative best that proved it could move the ball against the best faces one of the relative worst that struggled to stop weaker teams, the resulting outcome is not that Seattle will run for 4.8 yards-per-carry, it's that they have a really good chance to top five yards-per-carry and put this game away with big plays on the ground.

According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Seattle wins outright over Atlanta 54.6% of the time and by an average score of 22.1-20.0 As 2.5 point underdogs winning straight-up, the Seahawks cover the spread 60.4% of the time. This warrants an $84 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (46) is almost a normal play. At 56.7% to cover, it would justify a $45 play from a normal $50 player.

Paul's Pick: Houston +9.5 @ New England (Covers 60.1%)

On December 10, the Houston Texans took one of the most beat up teams in the NFL into Foxboro, MA for a Monday night tilt with the New England Patriots. New England was just more than a field goal favorite to win the game. We projected a six point win for the New England Patriots to give us a "normal" (greater than 57% chance) pick on the Patriots to cover. New England won the game 42-14. Patriots win and we win.

I am glad that happened. I am glad that happened in the national spotlight of Monday night. And I really am glad that journalists that people have heard of write hyperbolic (that's the kind word for what this is) pieces like this. What was expected to be essentially a field goal matchup almost exactly a month ago is now considered, by NFL standards, an expected blowout. The line has moved six points. To be fair, I would like all of this even more if the line would move to +10 and this is still not even the strongest ATS opinion on a day that involves just two games, but we will take +9.5 as what happened on December 10 has directly led to value in the Texans to keep this game closer than perceived.

The Texans are actually healthier than they were December 10 - especially in the secondary, which aided in Tom Brady's 21-of-35 for 296 yards, four touchdowns and no interception day. They are not playing their third road game in a row (Houston was at home last Saturday). There is no doubt about the motivation that both teams have to win (Houston had already secured a playoff spot by that Week 14 game). And there is also the fact that New England's last six playoff losses (all coming since the Patriots' last Super Bowl win) have come in regular season rematches. We again project a six point win by the Patriots and this time we get value on the other side.

Houston is 13-4 SU and 10-6-1 ATS against the 27th ranked NFL strength-of-schedule. The Texans finished the season as our sixth ranked overall team and are above average in each of our strength-of-schedule-adjusted efficiency categories. While being consistently better than average though not elite in just about everything may not be conducive to blowing opponents out, having few weaknesses also makes it less likely that a team will be blown out.

One way that Houston has succeeded over the course of this season is in a facet that is of the utmost importance when playing the Patriots - they get to the quarterback. Houston ranks fifth in the league with a sack rate (sacks-per-pass-play-faced) of 7%. Each of New England's four losses this season and six of its seven failed covers came against defensive-oriented teams with above average sack rates. This continues a pattern we have seen for several seasons as the Patriots have struggled against teams like the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers (straight-up) and the Miami Dolphins (ATS) that are largely built around putting pressure on the quarterback.

On the season, New England is 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS versus the 25th ranked NFL schedule to-date. The Patriots finished the season just one spot ahead of Houston in our NFL Power Rankings (fifth). With Tom Brady at quarterback they have a top five passing offense. They also, somewhat surprisingly given recent seasons' performances, have a top five run defense. However, New England is average in run efficiency (ranking 16th in our metrics) and 25th in pass defense. With an excellent pass rush and a more than adequate passing game (built around the play action), there are opportunities for Houston to keep this game close throughout.

According to 50,000 simulations of Texans @ Patriots, New England wins straight-up 64.8% of the time and by an average score of 28.7-22.9. As 9.5 point underdogs, Houston covers the spread 60.1% of the time, which is confident enough to recommend an $81 wager from a $50 player. It is actually slightly more likely that Houston wins this game straight-up than that New England wins by two touchdowns or more. As it has in 73% of New England's games this season, the OVER (47.5) is more likely than not to hit. In this case, 56.5% of the time the total goes over, which warrants a $43 play value for a normal $50 player.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle at AtlantaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After the Seahawks gave up 14 first-quarter points at Washington in their Wild Card showdown last week against the Redskins, they shut down the Redskins offense the rest of the way, scoring 24 points unanswered and putting up a solid win and cover as a three-point road favorite. Now they face a more balanced offense here this week, but we still like Seattle's chances of putting up another solid effort against the Falcons. Atlanta's defense has given up just 40 points in their last three games combined, and will face a Seattle team that played very conservative last week, letting their defense win the game for them. Seven out of Atlanta's eight home games fell under the total this year, and this one does as well! 5* Play on Seattle vs. Atlanta Under.

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ATLANTA -3 +105 over SeattleFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Back in Week 15, we wrote: ‘Falcons have won 11 straight here and 32 of 36 with Matt Ryan. Price appears cheap’. That was prior to facing the Giants, a game that Atlanta won 34-0 as a 1-pt favorite. The reason for pointing that out is that we feel the same way here. Why are the Falcons such a short price for this one? These Dirty Birds rarely lose at home with their only home loss this season was in a meaningless Week 17 game versus the Bucs. Under Mike Smith, Atlanta has lost just seven times in five seasons at this stadium. Granted, the Seahawks are playing well but things have also gone their way.
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Not to diminish anything from last week’s win over the Redskins but the injury to RGIII definitely had impact. That game was in Washington. Now the poor traveling Seahawks will fly across the country again, after trekking back to its home state, this time to face a talented Falcons bunch. Not only will that be a difficult task, Seattle will have to do it without the services of its top pass-rushing DE Chris Clemons, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Sunday’s game at Washington. Starting in Clemons’ place will be Bruce Irvin, getting his first NFL start. Also notable, is the loss of placekicker Steven Hauschka as mid-week kicker tryouts during playoffs can be problematic. Atlanta has the offensive prowess that Seattle hasn’t seen in some time. The Falcons have been one and done in three of past four years. That all changes here.
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Houston +10 over NEW ENGLANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We see it time and time again where the Patriots are lined up with an inflated number based on their popularity and years of success. This is another example of it. Not often do you find a 13-win team, without any significant injuries, to be this big of an underdog. We understand that folks don’t trust the Texans, a team that is littered with stars but rarely performs that way. Another contributor to this large pointspread points to an earlier contest between these two that was also played in Foxboro. The scoreboard read 42-14 New England when all was said and done but there were some circumstances early in that game that could have produced a much tighter contest. Houston RB Arian Foster became a non-factor in that one as the Texans had to play catch up. The likelihood of that happening again is remote and Foster should draw enough attention to allow for QB Matt Schaub to work his short passing game, a scheme that works best for his offence.
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The Patriots obviously know how to win big games but winning and covering are two different things. New England has been priced in this range, 9½ or more, six times this season. They went 2-4 against the spread in that set, with failed covers against much weaker teams that included the Cardinals, Jets, Bills and Jaguars. While we could be headed for another Tom Brady-Peyton Manning showdown next week, a close game or a back door cover leaves us too many options to refuse with a quality team.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Bucks battle the Raptors north of the border Sunday afternoon, Milwaukee will take the floor off a 16-point home loss Friday night against Detroit while Toronto enters off a 19-point home revenge win over Charlotte the same evening. With the Bucks having cashed in 8 of the last 10 games in this series, and standing 4-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss this season, we'll back the visitors here today. We recommend a 1-unit play in Milwaukee.

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Milwaukee vs. TorontoFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee is 18-17 SU/ATS. The O/U is 15-19-1. It's coming off a 103-87 setback at Detroit on the 11th, the total staying below the posted number of 197 in that one. Brandon Jennings had 15 points; so too did Beno Udrih. Milwaukee continues to struggle with consistency on the road, and shot just 39.6% from the floor collectively.
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Note that Milwaukee has seen the total go "under" the number in 11 of 14 when playing against a team with a losing record.
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Toronto is 14-22 SU and 19-17 ATS. The O/U is 17-19. It's coming off back to back victories, including a 99-78 win over Charlotte on the 11th, the total staying below the posted number of 195 in that one.
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Alan Anderson had 16 points; Jose Calderon had 15 and Toronto won for the tenth time in its last 13 games.
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Landry Fields dominated the paint with 11 boards.
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Toronto has looked pretty awesome of late, and has been getting the job done by committee, especially on the defensive side of the floor.
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Note that Toronto has seen the total go "under" the number in 12 of 17 home contests this year.
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As with most "totals selections", this is a "situational" play. Baltimore has been brutal offensively away from friendly confines, and Toronto has taken full advantage of these types of teams, playing a swarming and suffocating style of defense; consider a second look at the "under" here!

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Loyola Maryland -1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I have no problem laying a point or two with Loyola here as they have solid numbers in this one. Loyola is ranked 100 in the RPI Rankings, compared to 199 for Rider. When Loyola has played teams that ranked higher than 100 they are 12-1 this season. Rider is 0-6 vs teams ranked better than 150. Rider has lost every game vs winning teams and is 0-3 ats as a home dog of 3 or less. In game after allowing 60 or less Rider has failed to cover 3 of the last 4 and all 3 times they have had road loss revenge. Loyola is 8-3 to the spread as a road favorite of 3 or less, 4-0 ats off a conference game and has won 4 of 5 vs losing teams. Look for Loyola to win this one here today.

Bryan PowerFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland vs. L.A. LakersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: L.A. LakersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Hopefully, you enjoyed yesterday's FREE WINNER on California over Washington State. I've had some real great success this week in College Hoops. My NBA has been similarly hot, but I'm coming off a rare 0-2 day. I expect a complete bounce back Sunday & also recommend making a small wager on the Lakers over Cleveland....
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If the Lakers don't take care of business here, then I don't know what to say. They come in having dropped six straight and are 1-5 ATS in those games. The one cover came as a double-digit underdog. Here they are a prohibitive favorite against a Cleveland team that simply is not very good. The Cavs are just 5-17 SU on the road and allowing over 100 points per game. Offense has not been a problem for the Lakers this season as they are averaging over 103 points per game. The problem is defense as they are allowing over 102 PPG. Still, outscoring their opponents on the season suggests the Lakers record should be better than it is.
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Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league. At 9-29 SU, they have the second worst record in the league. Only Washington is worse. Their point differential of -5.2 PPG is better than only three teams. I see the Lakers finally breaking through here.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bucks/Raptors Under 192½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto has been downright dirty on the defensive end of the floor the past two games, holding Philadelphia and Charlotte to just 72 and 78 points respectively. Of course, those are two fairly bad teams so I'm not going to be sold this team has made a defensive turnaround until they can shut down a better opponent.
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However, any team that has allowed 40 points or less in the first half of two straight games is 119-67 for the UNDER the next game over the past five seasons.
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Milwaukee struggled to put points on the board last time out, shooting just 39.6% and scoring 87 points against Detroit. I'm still a little unsure what to think of this team without Skiles and his drill sergeant attitude towards defense, but I don't think the offensive problems can be turned around with his firing.
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With the Bucks scoring just 94.4 ppg away from home and the Raptors giving up 93.3 ppg in Toronto, I see some value here with the UNDER.

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Denver Nuggets -6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nuggets had won the season's first two meetings by six and 11 points before losing 106-105 at Golden State in the most recent matchup. That loss is significant because Denver is 35-21 ATS all-time under coach Karl when out for revenge for a close loss of 3 points or less to an opponent. The Nuggets are 13-2 at home this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams that have a winning road record. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Warriors are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Denver. Lay the points.

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Arizona State +9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect a bit of a letdown from Oregon here following its emotional win over Arizona. Plus, the Sun Devils have won or lost by 9 points or fewer in each of their last 12 meetings with the Ducks. The Sun Devils are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings and 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Oregon.

Joseph D'AmicoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
Play: New England PatriotsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston was soaring until they ran into New England last month. The Pats decimated the Texans, 42-14. Since then, Houston is eroding. Their offense can't get in sync while their defense isn't creating those big plays anymore. Matt Schaub only tossed 2 TDs in the L5 weeks. The Pats "D" will load up the box and key on Foster. Brady is having an MVP year with an offense that topped the league in scoring. Outside of the 49ers loss, the Patriots defense gives up a mere 19.3 PPG. In the last meeting, the Texans "D" only got to Brady once. Belichick, Brady, and company will be prepped and primed here. New England covers.

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Maryland +6FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Off back-to-back wins at Georgia Tech and North Carolina, the Miami Hurricanes are in a big letdown spot tonight at home against the Maryland Terrapins. The Hurricanes are clearly overvalued in this contest because of those two wins.
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Maryland will be highly motivated to bounce back from a 62-65 home loss to Florida State. That was a rare loss for the Terrapins, who are 13-2 on the season and much-improved this year. They are 2-1 SU and a perfect 3-0 ATS on the road this season.
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The Terrapins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. loss. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Bet Maryland Sunday.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan at Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Ohio StateFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michigan is loaded. The Wolverines are one of my Final Four projected teams, and if they win it all, I sure won't be surprised. But right now this squad is in the uncomfortable position of being the last team standing, as the Wolverines are now the only unbeaten entry in the entire D-1 field. That's the ultimate target and I can see Michigan falling today. Ohio State is another powerhouse, and their joint is going to be insane today. I also think the Buckeyes are one of the few teams around that can actually match up with Michigan, so this isn't just a wing and a prayer pick. No question this could be a thriller and I'm never thrilled at the prospect of laying even a miniscule number against the brilliant coaching of John Beilein, but I see Ohio State coming out on top in this one.