Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn NetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Brooklyn NetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brooklyn Nets firing of Avery Johnson appears so far to be just the medicine this club needed. In comes P.J. Carlesimo to take over the lead and all the Nets have done under his leadership is go 7-1 S/U and 5-3 ATS. Moreover, the Nets who played a slow down game under Avery have upped the scoring under Carlesimo, hitting over 100 points in five of the eight games. Moreover, in three of those they tallied 110 or more. The Nets put a pretty good whipping on the Suns Friday, winning 99-79. The Nets have also been hitting the boards harder under P.J, averaging a +4 in rebound margin. The Pacers have quietly built a very respectable 22-14 mark this season (19-15 ATS). But what I don't like about this spot is that the Pacers are playing the second of a back-to-back situation, having played at home against Charlotte on Saturday. That is never easy for a team, especially on the road and against a Nets teams that is playing with a lot of confidence and speeding up the pace. The Nets look to have caught the Pacers in a tough spot and I look for Brooklyn to push the pace and hope to tire Indiana. Your free play for Sunday is on the Brooklyn Nets.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Providence +5 over SETON HALLFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Prior to conference play the Pirates went 12-2. Losses to open Big-East play against Notre Dame and Louisville hasn’t decreased their stock, as they were a double-digit pooch in both and delivered accordingly, losing by 19 and 15 points respectively. When we look at the Halls’ non-conference slate, we see victories over a bunch of creampuffs and near losses to Stony Brook (60-59), Wake (71-67) and Rhode Island (60-55). The Pirates 12-4 overall record is one of the country’s most misleading marks.
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The Friars are 0-3 in Big East play and just 8-7 overall. They’ve lost five in a row, including a couple of disturbing defeats to Boston College and Brown. You won’t find many wanting to back them here and that’s usually the best time to step in, as it fits right into our “buy low, sell high” angle we use quite often. Providence is better than its record. Freshman Kris Dunn is the Big East’s best kept secret and the Friars zone defense can be difficult on anyone. Expect them to regroup here and come out focused and determined to win their first conference game of the year. Seton Hall is the perfect candidate to oblige.
Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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UMass -3.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Satisfied with an opening day romp over Duquense on this floor, 82-75, a Fordham team comprised of 6 frosh and 6 soph, may well be ripe for the picking by a focused UMass team. And there will be little that third year Fordham HC Pecora can do about it at Rose Hill Gym this afternoon. UMass loves to force the pace. They had a hard time getting their way in a 70-62 loss at St. Louis on Thursday (a cover for us). On a normal night, they drop 73 a game, and push the pace with defensive pressure. With dichotomous game one results, expect the price to fall, the emotion to favor the visitor, and Fordham, who commits nearly 17 TOs per game, to get their pocket picked repeatedly by the up tempo visitor.
Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston/ New England Under 49: Last time these teams New England put up 42 points and I expect a much better defensive effort from the Texans in this go around. For some reason the Pats have had troubles scoring in the playoffs of late as they have put up 23 points or less in 5 of their last 6 playoff games. I don't expect them to get 42 points in this one again. That Houston defense is a tough bunch and they will make the adjustments from last game to his one. On offense I expect a heavy dose of Foster as to keep the Pats offense of the Field. Last time the Texan's couldn't implement that plan cause they fell behind so bis, so early. I expect a different start to this game. The Patriot defense has been very solid of late, allowing 19 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games and they should be able to hold down a Houston offense that has scored 19 or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Despite New England putting up 42 points last time, just 56 were scored in the game and 7 of that was a fumble that the Pats recovered in the endzone. I see a bit more defense in this one, which should net us about 42 points, tops.
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Seattle/ Atlanta Under 46: The Seahawks have be more or a wide open offense, but they still have scored just 22 ppg the last 2 weeks. Last week they scored 14 very quick points, but were held to just 10 points the rest of te game vs a pretty bad Washington defense. The Seahawks this year have averaged just 21.4 ppg on the road and now they get to face and Atlanta team that was very solid at home, allowing just 17 ppg. For Atlanta there offense has been average at home, averaging 24.5 ppg on the year. They are more of a passing team, but this Seattle team comes in 6th vs the pass, while Seattle is also tops in points allowed this year, allowing just 15.3 ppg. Seattle is a run first offense and that should eat clock, while Atlanta will have to slowly move the ball down the field vs a Seattle defense that is 6th in yards per play allowed (5.0). Seattle had a road game vs Buffalo, in which 67 points were scored, yet their road games have still averaged just 39.6 ppg, while Atlanta's home games have averaged just 41.5 ppg. Both teams should bring the defense in this one and keep the score in the 30's.
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Seahawks vs. FalconsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Every Wiseguy/sharp I spoke to this week is on Atlanta. For good reasons, Seattle traveled from Sea to Wash, played a tough physical game, back across the Country to Sea and Now departing for ATL. Throw in the early morning start time, which is 10 AM Body clock (SEA) Time. Meanwhile ATL was off last week remembering how the NYG beat the snot out of them last Year in the first round of the Playoffs. While the sharps are on ATL, it seems the Public is on Seattle. With all these facts, I feel the UNDER is the safer play. No matter the travel plans, Seahawks defense is really good, while their offense struggles passing, which is ATL weakness on defense. ATL Defensive front 7 is pretty decent. Here are these 2 Teams Total Stats SEA is 6-3 UNDER on the Road this Season ATL is 7-1 UNDER @ Home this Season.
Accuscore
Seattle Seahawks ML +122
The Falcons are 1 point favorites, but many love the Seahawks to win this game despite being on the road. In my opinion, Seattle is in fact the better team, but they will be without Chris Claiborne, and their homefield is the biggest advantage in the NFL. That automatically makes them have one of the biggest home-road disparties on the league. However, if you like Seattle, there is no purpose to taking the spread as you would get just +1 at -110. Instead, take the money line for Seattle to win outright and get much better value at +122.
New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans Over 47.5
AccuScore simulations project the total line to be 51 points with the Over occurring nearly 60 percent of the time. The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon is fine with temperatures in the low 50’s, and only a chance of some showers earlier in the weekend. These two teams last played in Foxboro in Week 14 with a total of 56 points. Expect New England to throw, and throw often once again against Houston, and the Texans will likely need to do the same in order to keep up on the scoreboard. The scenario for the Under requires more of a belief in Houston’s ability to stay close or even get ahead, and control the game with Arian Foster. I don’t think that will happen. AccuScore, during the regular season, went 9-6 picking totals for Houston games, and 10-6 in New England games. Solid trends.
Harry Bondi
SEATTLE / ATLANTA OVER 46
We expect both teams to be able to move the ball and put points on the board in the Georgia Dome. Falcons have the 21st worst defense against the run in the NFL. Look for Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson to gash the Atlanta for big yards. Matt Ryan averages over 400 yards per game in the dome and should be able to score against a Seahawk defense that lost its best player, defense end and sack leader Chris Clemons, last week and is making its second straight trip back east to play at 10 am pacific time. Trends also favor an over as four of the last five head-to-head meetings between the Seahawks and Falcons went over the posted total. Seattle is also 5-1 to the over in it's last six playoff games and the Falcons have gone over the total in four of their last five playoff games as well. Take over 46 in the Atlants vs Seattle playoff game today.
John Ryan
St. Peters at Siena
Prediction: Siena
The simulator shows a high probability that STP will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 37-15 ATS mark for 71% winners since 2007. Play against home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games and is a struggling team winning 20% or less of their games on the season. The sim shows that Siena will not score more than 60 points in this game. In past games, STP is a solid 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) when they allow 60 or less points in a game over the last 3 seasons. Siena is just 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when they score 60 or less points in a game this season. Neither team is going to make national headlines and will continue to struggle, but STP has a significant advantage at both ends of the floor. Siena ranks 320th in the nation averaging 57.8 PPG, 321st averaging just 9.8 assists per game, and 314th posting a 0.664 assist-to-turnover ratio. Take St. Peters.
John Ryan
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Prediction: New England Patriots
The simulator shows a high probability that the Patriots will win this game by a minimum of 11 points. The sim also projects that the Patriots will gain 400 or more offensive yards. In past games, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS this season, 20-6 ATS the past three seasons, and 66-24 ATS since 1992 when they have gained 400+ offensive yards. Moreover, Houston is just 0-3 ATS this season, 2-10 ATS the past three seasons, and 9-29 ATS since 1992 when they have allowed 400+ yards to an opponent. Houston is at its best when they have the ground game established. It is one of the simplest ground games in the NFL with Foster making zone gap reads at the LOS. The Patriots, however, are excellent at setting the edge and forcing backs into cutbacks lanes that are then blocked with the presence of Willfork. I strongly believe that Houston center Chris Myers will not be able to consistently keep Willfork from getting upfield and this will be a major blow to the ground game. If Myers needs double team help, then it essentially eliminates a guard from getting to the second level and allows an extra Patriot defender to make plays and fill gaps. Simply said, I dont see the Texans defense being able to contain Brady. Take the Patriots.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans +7 over NEW YORK
The Hornets four game win streak and five wins in their last six all coincided with the return of Eric Gordon on Dec 29. Gordon changes everything. Since his return, New Orleans has held the opposition to an average of 87.7 per game and they’ve played some of the top scoring teams in the league over that span. The bench has also been much-more productive. Against the Timberwolves, in their last game, the Hornets' reserves outscored Minnesota's bench 45-14. Playing in New York is a rare opportunity for these Western clubs so these Hornets are likely to be as amped up for this one as any game on their schedule. A young, very warm and focused club playing with confidence is a dangerous one.
The Knicks have dropped three in a row and five of seven. The injuries continue to pile up and the cohesiveness that this group showed early in the year has suffered greatly because of it. New York’s rebounding is average, the 3’s aren’t falling like they were earlier and now, in the midst of trying to snap out of a funk, they’re spotting a significant number to the Association’s most undervalued club. Upset possibility.
Bob Balfe
Atlanta Falcons -3
Matt Ryan has just as many playoff wins as Russell Wilson. Like I always say, I think teams need to hit their bumps in the road before they can advance deep in the NFL Playoffs. Seattle is a flashy team, but the truth is they were just an average road team and they were 0-2 on the road this year in domes. Atlanta has a ton of talent. This team is a lot like Houston this year, but they are playing at home and its just an extra advantage that they are used to this turf. Seattle has a few skilled players that are banged up and I just think their time to shine will come in a year or two. Atlanta has been the same team with the same players for years now and this is a huge game for them. Matt Ryan will bottom down with the Tony Romo’s of the league if he cannot win this game. Seattle has kicking issues and I just do not think they keep this game close. Take Atlanta.
New England Patriots -9.5
I hate to do this in this spot because of all the points, but there are a couple of things I can’t get over. The MNF Game was just a complete blowout and Houston has actually gotten worst since that game. Gronk didn’t even play in that game for New England. I don’t see how the Texans are going to cover these tight ends. Now with that being said that game is in the books and has nothing to do with this game, but this Texans team lacks passion. Their offensive coordinator is interviewing with other teams and has head coaching on his mind. It would be stupid to say this team is not focused, but I just don’t like how they have played this year in the redzone. If you kick field goals against New England you are going to get smoked. Look at last week. The Texans dominated the Bengals and still had to sweat the game out. New England doesn’t have the best defense by any stretch, but their offense gets out to nice leads which makes other teams press and create a ton of turnovers. Houston has the talent to win this game, but something is missing on this team and I just don’t think they can get over this hump. They had their chance to play this game at home and lost the final two weeks of the year. The only reason why this team is in the playoffs is because of the 9-0 record against really bad teams. I don’t care much for the point spread today. I like New England to win the game so we will take them and let the spread take care of itself. One last thing I can’t get over is when Brady even gets looked at the wrong way the refs throw a flag. He is babied by the NFL and it sure feels good when your wagering on the team that is more likely to get the free 15 yards. Take New England.
Maryland +6
This Miami Defense is very impressive, but they are not good enough on offense to be this big of favorites and they might be in a bit of a hangover from their stunning road win against UNC the other night. Maryland gets overlooked in this conference, but can beat any of these teams on any given day. Maryland plays great defense themselves and we will take them as dogs tonight. Take the Terps.
David Banks
Texans / Patriots Over 49
In a rematch of a regular season blowout played at the same venue, the New England Patriots again host the Houston Texans, except this time it is in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs from Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, MA on Sunday at 4:30 ET on CBS. The Patriots won the regular season meeting 42-14 in the game that began the Texans' late-season swoon that saw them go from an 11-1 start to finishing as the three-seed and being forced to play on wild card weekend, where they were rather lackluster in a 19-13 victory over the sixth-seeded Cincinnati Bengals.
Now Houston did run the ball well last week, rushing for 158 yards with Arian Foster having 140 of those yards on 32 carries, and the Texans will undoubtedly try to establish the run early with Foster here this week. Houston failed to do so in the regular season meeting when Foster finished with only 46 rushing yards, and that contributed to the game getting out of hand. Foster is obviously one of the best running backs in football, but he does not figure to run right through the New England defense either as the Patriots actually finished eighth in the NFL in rushing defense this year allowing 102.1 yards per game, and they were sixth in rushing average allowed at 3.9 yards per carry. Still, the Texans will most likely keep force-feeding Foster even if he does not have immediate success, as besides being a threat to bust a long one at any time, a high dose of running plays would at the very least keep the New England offense on the sideline.
Of course, that game plan would go out the window as soon as the Patriots build a two-score or more lead, so the key for Houston still comes down to its defense doing a reasonable job of containing Tom Brady, and it failed miserably in the first go-around. Thanks to outstanding play by the New England offensive line vs. a physical Texans' front seven that dominated a lot of other teams it faced this season, Brady completed 21-of-35 passes for 296 yards and four touchdown passes with no interceptions in basically only three quarters of play. Furthermore, the line opened up some running lanes also as the Patriots rushed for 130 yards in that game, and when New England is running the ball well, it makes Brady virtually indefensible. Moreover, considering that the Patriots' offensive line has played well all year and that most of Houston's gaudy defensive numbers were accomplished vs. weak opponents while that defense struggled vs. New England and Green Bay, there is really non reason to believe that the Patriots will not score a lot of points again here, turning this into the shootout that Houston does not want.
The 'over' went 7-1 in this divisional round of the playoffs the last two seasons. The 'over' is also 4-0 in the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams, as well as a sparkling 42-19 in the last 61 New England games following an ATS win.
Charlie Sports
Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
Play: Milwaukee Bucks
The (18-17) Milwaukee Bucks of the NBA Eastern Conference Central division will take on the (14-22) Toronto Raptors of the Eastern Conference Atlantic division in 2013 NBA action. The Bucks are 8-2 Against The Spread vs. Toronto the last 10 meetings between the teams. Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS their last 6 overall and recently fired their head coach. Toronto is 5-2 their last 7 both straight up and ATS and have also won and covered their last 2 overall, but the Bucks get the road cover.